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Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507

International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems,


SolarPACES 2014

Assessment on Egypt’s CSP components manufacturing potential


J.F. Serverta *, E. Cerrajerob
a
Industrial Engineering Ph. D., CEO of Solar Technology Advisors STA. Pza. Manolete nº 2, 11º C, 28020 – Madrid (Spain)
b
Chemical Engineer, senior researcher at Solar Technology Advisors STA

Abstract

A previous study of the World Bank assessed the international competitiveness of five MENA countries, where Egypt showed
significant potential to develop several key solar industries. The analysis revealed that Egypt’s key strengths on production
factors are: low cost of labor and of energy for industrial consumers; availability of glass, steel, and stainless steel; and a strong
manufacturing capability and that Egypt’s planned deployment of solar energy up to 2020 can be a driver. In this paper, current
solar component manufacturing value chains and Egypt’s industrial base and potential markets to be served are analyzed to
identify the value chains in which Egypt’s manufacturing sector could participate. Several solar industries (Heat transfer
equipment, Pumping equipment, Mirror, Storage tanks, and Structures) are identified as attractive to be developed in Egypt. A
solar component manufacturing industry would lower the cost of the solar plants to be built, increase the country’s energy
security and contribute to regional renewable energy development. Egypt has the opportunity to enlarge its solar component
manufacturing base, which, according to the assumptions in this study, would create up to 3,000 jobs, most of them in installation
activities. Growing solar component manufactures also would increase GDP by over 300 million US$/year; no shortages of
materials supply are expected. Energy, on the other hand, might pose a problem, because some of the proposed industries are
energy intensive.

©
© 2015
2015TheTheAuthors. Published
Authors. by Elsevier
Published Ltd. This
by Elsevier Ltd. is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer review by the scientific conference committee of SolarPACES 2014 under responsibility of PSE AG.
Peer review by the scientific conference committee of SolarPACES 2014 under responsibility of PSE AG
Keywords: MENA; Egypt; benchmarking; attractiveness index; solar; CSP; component manufacturing; industrial integration

1. Introduction
In 2012, the World Bank carried out a study assessing the international competitiveness of five MENA
countries—Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia—to develop a local solar industry [1] [2] . Egypt showed

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +34-91-383-58-20; fax: +34-91-767-01-29.


E-mail address: jservert@sta-solar.com

1876-6102 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer review by the scientific conference committee of SolarPACES 2014 under responsibility of PSE AG
doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2015.03.100
J.F. Servert and E. Cerrajero / Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507 1499

potential to develop several key industries. This study explores the Egyptian case to identify strategic challenges and
provide recommendations for developing a local solar industry for selected concentrated solar power (CSP)
components1.
It focuses on Egypt’s business potential from four main perspectives: production factors, demand factors, risk
factors and business support factors to better identify the strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities of the industry
context as well as the threats to it.
The rationale behind Egypt developing a solar component industry is that: (1) There are reasons to create a stable
pipeline of solar projects in Egypt [3]; (2) Egypt has a solid industrial and technical background; (3) Basic materials
and industries already exist; and (4) There are competitive advantages to some production factors.
Based on a bottom-up approach, this study involved five main analytical phases: (1) International solar
component manufacturing value chains and the outlook for their robustness, (2) Egypt's existing manufacturing base
and its potential to participate in the international solar component manufacturing value chain, (3) Update on the
existing and potential applications of solar technology, solar components, and/or solar energy in residential,
commercial, public, and industrial sectors, (4) Estimation of potential economic costs and benefits that could result
from enlarging solar component manufacturing in Egypt, and (5) Recommendations for the development of Egypt´s
solar industry.
Nomenclature and glossary

bbl/day Barrels per day


COP Coefficient of performance
CSP Concentrated solar power
DNI Direct normal solar irradiation
EEHC Egyptian Electricity Holding Company
GHI Global horizontal solar irradiation
HTF Heat transfer fluid
HVAC Heating, venting and air conditioning
IDA Industrial Development Authority, Egypt
ISCC Integrated solar combined cycle
kWh/bbl Kilowatt-hour per barrel
MED Multi-effect distillation
MENA Middle East and North of Africa
PV Photovoltaic power
RO Reverse osmosis
ROW Rest of the world
TES Thermal energy storage

Table 1. Criteria used for the qualitative assessment.


Technological Number of Upstream Geographical Demand-to- Robustness
maturity competitors bottlenecks dispersion Offer Ratio
x Newcomer Oligopoly Shortage Few Shrinking Weak
+ Demo Several Alternatives Several Stable Medium
++ Established Many Unlikely Many Growing Strong

2. International solar component manufacturing value chains and the outlook for their robustness

To assess the value chains that could be developed in Egypt, this study analyzed the current global solar
component value chains to get an overview on their robustness and attractiveness to a potential investor.

1
The study is based on what Egypt could do taking into account its historical trajectory and business context. The study focuses on the
country’s potential and conditions that facilitate and enable the development of an industry. However, the study does not consider the specific
challenges that Egypt is facing at this moment, which transcend the solar sector.
1500 J.F. Servert and E. Cerrajero / Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507

The factors taken into account in Table 1 led to the qualitative assessment in Table 2. The robustness of the value
chain is constrained by the lowest value obtained in the factors. The component industries where robustness is
medium or Strong can, in different degrees, be considered robust at the international level. The following epigraph
will suggest a set of component industries to be developed in Egypt based on Egypt’s assets and component
industries’ needs.

Table 2. Qualitative assessment of manufacturing value chains for CSP.


Technological Number of Upstream Geographical Demand-to- Robustness
maturity competitors bottlenecks dispersion Offer Ratio
Condenser ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
Electrical Generator ++ + ++ + ++ +
Heat exchanger ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
HTF pumps ++ + ++ + ++ +
HTF oil + x + x ++ x
Mirror + + ++ + ++ +
Pumps ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
Receiver + x + x + x
Solar salt + x x x ++ x
Steam turbine ++ x ++ + ++ x
Storage tank ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++
Structure & tracker + ++ ++ ++ ++ ++

3. Egypt's existing manufacturing base and potential

In the region, Egypt is competitive in terms of labor cost, which is a significant advantage, [4]. Some key
barriers were identified, such as (1) Lack of technical knowledge on solar energy related component design and
manufacturing, (2) Lack of preparation for project development and lack of qualification for operation and
maintenance, (3) Absence of specialized centers to train and develop specific skills, and (4) Low productivity.
However, the labor market is seen as an opportunity for Egypt, rather than an unsolvable barrier, since Egypt has a
solid base of qualified professionals, in part due to Cairo University being ranked one of the world´s best 500
universities [5].
Steel and float glass manufacturing facilities exist in Egypt with enough capacity to supply the solar component
industry. In the case of float glass, however, some additional investments would be required to fulfill CSP market
needs, as the current float glass production in Egypt produces glass with an iron content that would not be
immediately compliant with CSP requirements.
While electricity subsidies in Egypt have kept electricity prices artificially low in the past, energy costs are
currently increasing for industrial consumers, who have experienced tariff hikes in the last year accompanied by, in
the case of the most energy intensive industries, a 50% hike in the price of electricity consumed during a defined 4-
hour peak period [6]. Additionally, a plan by the Egyptian electricity regulator placed a series of barriers on high
consumption companies and may hamper the development of energy intensive industries in the country in the future.
Regarding financial costs, in the last five years, Egyptian interest rate has remained above 10% [7], reaching
16% in 2012 for small/medium companies2. This interest rate makes it difficult for small/medium companies to
invest due to the high pay-back.

4. Existing and potential applications of solar technology, solar components, and/or solar energy in
residential, commercial, public, and industrial sectors

In an earlier stage of this project [1], Egypt’s and other countries’ competitiveness for developing solar industries
locally was assessed. Metrics regarding production factors, demand factors, risk and stability factors and business
support factors were used in an aggregation and weighting model to provide an “attractiveness index” for each
country and industry, using a set of “Benchmark countries” as a reference in the analysis. These indexes enable
comparing the likeliness for an investor to choose Egypt as the preferred destination to invest in a solar component

2
As detailed by several stakeholders during the mission carried out in Cairo in April 2013.
J.F. Servert and E. Cerrajero / Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507 1501

manufacturing industry, as shown in Fig. 1. Egypt has an Attractiveness index closer to the average of Benchmark
countries for the industries of Structure and Tracker, and it might reach a competitive level in other industries as
well.

x Egypt possesses land, solar resource and wind speeds that allow for wind, solar and biomass development. For
solar energy development specifically, Egypt’s maximum yearly global horizontal irradiation (GHI) and direct
normal irradiation (DNI) are equal to 6.6 and 8.2 kWh/m2/day respectively, the highest in the MENA region, one
of the areas with the best resource globally [8].
x In late 2012 the government announced new, more ambitious targets for the 2027 Plan, of 2,800 MW of CSP.
x Currently, a shortage on capacity to supply the demand both for thermal and electrical energy exists.
x Cost of solar related technologies is reducing the gap with conventional solutions.
x Once enough experience is gained in national market, Egypt could export components to other markets.

1.0 Average
MENA
0.9
Algeria
0.8
0.7 Egypt
Attractiveness index

0.6
Jordan
0.5
0.4 Morocco
0.3
Tunisia
0.2
0.1 Average
Benchmark

Fig. 1. Normalized Attractiveness index for CSP component industries

The market volume for the solar industries has been estimated by aggregating the forecasted demand from:

x Large scale CSP solar power plants both in Egypt and abroad (base demand): based on the forecasted installed
capacity in the country, in neighboring MENA countries, the entire MENA region, the European Union, and the
Rest of the World (ROW) [9]3, [10], [11], [12] (Fig. 2). A fraction of each demand could be met from Egypt, if
appropriate actions are taken (Fig. 3 a), resulting in the market volume shown in Fig. 3 b.
x Other applications of solar energy in Egypt:
ż Power generation: Solar boost: coupling a solar field allows conventional power plants to work at or slightly
above their rated power and reduce fuel consumption during daytime, much like the ISCC at Kuraymat. This
concept could be applied to part of both the existing power plants (over 9.8 GW combined cycles, nearly 900
MW gas turbines, and almost 13 GW “steam” power plants) and the new developments (according to the
Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC), 12,400 MW thermal power projects will be implemented
within the Seventh Five-Year Plan 2012-2017) [13] .

3
Global and European forecasted installed capacity includes conservative, moderate and optimistic scenarios with modifications to the
projections in [9] to include Algeria and Morocco’s solar plans targets, as they were disclosed after its publication.
1502 J.F. Servert and E. Cerrajero / Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507

2,500

Annual installed capacity, MW


2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Egypt Neighboring countries (Jordan and Tunisia)


Other MENA (Algeria and Morocco) Europe
ROW

Fig. 2. CSP yearly installed capacity (2013-2027), base case.

100.0%
250

229
228

231
233
231
232
230
229
229
229
Market volume in Egypt (MW/year)

199
10.0%
Market share, %

200
1.0%
150

126
0.1%
100
0.0%
40

50
Egypt
5

Neighboring countries (Jordan and Tunisia)


1
-

Other MENA (Algeria and Morocco) 0


Europe
ROW

Fig. 3. (a) Market share evolution for target industries until 2027 hypotheses and (b) CSP market volume (2012-2027), base case.

ż Process heat (CSP): Final energy consumption in Egypt amounted over 70 MW in 2010 [14]. The shares
appearing in [15] and the electricity consumptions obtained from EEHC [16] were used to estimate non-
electrical energy consumption. Additional assumptions are made for the thermal fraction of non-electrical
energy consumption, as well as for the temperature level at which said energy is demanded, as shown in Table
3. The term “process heat” comprises various possible system configurations which require different
components, so the forecasted demand has been described on a case-by-case application basis.
– High temperature distillation: The main industrial use that will be considered is the distillation of crude oil,
which takes place at temperatures between 370 and 390 ºC and allows CSP heating. Egypt has an installed
refinery capacity of 726,000 bbl/day [17] . Thermal energy consumption for crude oil distillation is near
300 kWh/bbl [18], so installed power is near 9 GW.
– Steam production: As shown in Table 3, Egypt had a medium temperature thermal energy consumption of
near 150,000 GWh/year in 2010, of which nearly 50% is for industrial purposes.
– Drying: As shown in Table 3, Egypt had a low temperature thermal energy consumption of near 100,000
GWh/year in 2010, of which nearly 25% is for industrial purposes.
J.F. Servert and E. Cerrajero / Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507 1503

Table 3. Yearly thermal energy consumption estimations 2010, GWh.


Consumption Total energy Electricity Nonelectrical Thermal energy Thermal energy
share consumption consumption energy fraction consumption
Industries 37% 314,735 40,702 274,033 90% 246,629
Residential 20% 170,127 61,608 108,519 100% 108,519
& Services
Agriculture 3% 25,519 4,927 20,592 30% 6,178
& Fishing
Transport 29% 246,684 - 246,684 0% -
Other 11% 93,570 17,922 75,648 50% 37,824
High temperature Medium Low temperature High temperature Medium Low temperature
fraction temperature fraction energy temperature energy
fraction consumption energy consumption
> 250ºC < 120ºC
consumption
250<>120ºC
Industries 60% 30% 10% 147,978 73,989 24,663
Residential 0% 50% 50% - 54,259 54,259
& Services
Agriculture 0% 50% 50% - 3,089 3,089
& Fishing
Transport 0% 0% 0% - - -
Other 0% 50% 50% - 18,912 18,912

– MED desalinization: Egypt has put in place plans to address water availability issues [19]. Table 4 shows
the creation or expansion of existing desalination plants in the period 2012-2027. Multi-Effect Distillation
(MED) [20] has a lower electricity consumption making it preferred to Reverse Osmosis (RO) if thermal
energy is available at low cost.
– Cooling: Solar powered absorption cycles are used for air conditioning purposes because their energy
source is coupled to the demand, among other reasons. The proliferation of air conditioning equipment in
residential buildings is one of the main reasons for peak demand issues [21], being responsible for about
20% of the peak load in summer. Absorption cycles show COP values below those of state-of-the-art
electromechanical equipment [22], but since they use mostly thermal energy, they are advisable when
thermal energy prices are significantly lower than those of electricity.
1,400
1,200 34% 32% 32%
1,000 51%
538 567 569 5% 3% 2%
800 7% 7% 8%
299 10% 9% 8%
101 107 113 9% 10% 8%
600 11%
77 9%
400 10% 35% 38%
585 583 583 31%
200 476 16%
20
- 26

Solar boost, new Solar boost, revamp


Total CSP ALTERNATIVE
Distillation Steam supply
Base demand CSP, EXPORT Drying MED desalinization
Base demand CSP, LOCAL Cooling

Fig. 4. (a) CSP market volume (2012-2027), including alternative applications and (b) Contribution of each application to the Alternative CSP
market volume (2012-2027).
1504 J.F. Servert and E. Cerrajero / Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507

Table 4. Planned installation or expansion of desalinization plants until 2027, thousands of m3/day. Source: [20].
2012 - 2017 2017 - 2022 2022 - 2027
Red Sea 72.5 143.5 10
Sinai 22 10 30
Matrouh 42 13 10
Not all of the components for CSP power plants are required in the same amounts or proportions in this
applications and in utility-scale CSP power plants. Considering the abovementioned situations, the future installed
capacity forecast is summarized in Fig. 4.

5. Aggregated economic costs and benefits associated with an enlarged solar sector in Egypt

Based on these results and the analysis of the circumstances of the different solar industries in the world, several
solar industries have been selected due to their attractiveness in Egypt. From an industrial point of view, certain
component manufacturing lines can be considered as a single development.
x Condenser and Heat exchangers: Heat transfer equipment x Storage tanks
x Pumps and HTF pumps: Pumping equipment
x Mirror
A developed solar sector will contribute to job creation, increase in GDP, and an upstream impact in materials
and energy consumption. The following sources of GDP have been aggregated (Fig. 5, right):
x Wages of workers in installation activities, in both large and small plants
x Local share of component manufacturing industries revenue, including:
ż Wages of local workers ż Material costs from local suppliers
ż Expenditure in energy, both electric and thermal ż Profit
x Engineering services provided by local companies for the solar plants in the country.

3,000 400
Required workers

300
2,000
GDP contribution, USD

200
1,000
100
million

0 0

High q., CSP components industries Imports, CSP industries


Medium q., CSP components industries Local, CSP industries
Medium q., CSP installers, domestic CSP engineering
Medium q., CSP installers, large plants Medium q., CSP installers, large plants

Fig. 5. (a) Labor Creation in the CSP Solar Sector and (b) contribution to GDP from Solar CSP Sector, 2013–27

Direct high- and medium-qualification jobs will be created in the component manufacturing industries,
construction of large power plants, and installation of small or domestic plants4. The impacts are shown in Fig. 5.
Egypt has the opportunity to enlarge its solar component manufacturing base, which, according to the assumptions
in this study, would create up to 3,000 jobs, most of them in installation activities.

4
An average labor demand of 33 and 45 person-month/MW has been taken into account for large power plants and domestic, respectively.
J.F. Servert and E. Cerrajero / Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507 1505

A variety of materials is expected to be consumed by the component manufacturing industries. Egypt’s expected
consumption of local supplies is below 1 percent of its production capacity so no quantitative shortages are expected
in the short term. The quality of the materials, however, could be troublesome.
No shortages of materials supply are expected. Energy, however, might pose a problem because some of the
proposed industries are energy intensive and depend strongly on continuous, heavy-duty production to be profitable.
Egypt has expressed its intention to discourage the installation of new energy-intensive industries. As a reference,
to determine the relative energetic intensity of the component manufacturing industries, this study estimates the
actual average energy consumption of the Egyptian industrial sector in energy consumption per unit of GDP
(MWh/US$mil). Inverters and structures have a lower specific energy consumption of both thermal and electric than
the country averages [13].

6. Recommendations for the development of Solar Industries in Egypt

Even though Egypt has a good background to develop solar component industries, the issues in Table 5 have
been identified as relevant for the sustainable development of solar industries in Egypt. In the case of Egypt, to
focus the actions, it is advisable to identify a champion that can catalyze a cluster to develop the solar component
industry. Taking into account stakeholders’ opinions and the experience gathered in leading countries, the private
sector should lead the initiative but initial support from the public sector or multilateral organizations may be needed
to catalyze the process.

Table 5. Issue definition and objectives.


Issue Stakeholders Definition Objective
involved
Visibility of the Policy makers The private sector has little visibility on the developing Give visibility on the pipeline to the
pipeline pipeline, it does not perceive the demand (both public private sector, so that it perceives the
and private) and does not react. demand and can react appropriately.
Capital Financial The capital market is difficult to access (both in terms Ensure enough capital is available to
availability institutions, policy of equity and loan), and expensive (two-digit zone). develop the sector in a competitive
makers, private manner, with appropriate payback
sector periods.
Qualified labor Policy makers, Training is required to ensure international quality Develop training programs to ensure all
requirements private sector standards are met, including both skilled engineers and necessary capabilities are in place for the
managers for the manufacturing process and specific development of the sector
training for installation and maintenance.
Technology Academia, private Local industry lacks some of the know-how required Identify and acquire the required know-
transfer sector on the manufacturing processes and the solar market. how over the shortest period of time.
Clustering Policy makers, Company dispersion leads to lost opportunities in Define, design and develop clustering
private sector terms of synergies and economies of scale. opportunities to maximize synergies in
the sector and encourage new entrants.
Materials supply Private sector The increase in demand of local materials caused by Monitor this phenomenon and give
the development of the solar component industry could visibility to upstream actors so they can
have an impact on material supply and price. be prepared both in terms of quality and
quantity.
Exports Policy makers, Egyptian exports might be affected by internal custom Identify key export markets and develop
private sector duties, destination custom duties, or other requirements future agreements to minimize this risk.
imposed by destination countries.
Certification Policy makers, The adoption of international quality standards is Design and facilitate the development of
and private sector necessary for both exports and the internal market. Egyptian standards, encouraging
accreditation communication between national and
international laboratories.
1506 J.F. Servert and E. Cerrajero / Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507

Table 6. Action Plan and Timeline.


Issue Immediate actions (year 1) Medium term actions (years 2-4) Long term actions (years 5-7)
Visibility of x Analyze mechanisms to develop the x Implement technical and x Review mechanisms and/or
the pipeline pipeline; select and use the chosen environmental regulation to ease introduce new ones
x Develop a credible action plan pipeline development x Focus on external pipeline
x Make permit and license processes more x Analyze effectiveness of the development
agile mechanisms and measures implemented
x Inform society of the milestones being
achieved
Capital x Identify and disseminate possible x Develop an investment fund to drive x Review financing rates,
availability international and national sources of the sector participation on the part of local
financing for solar industries x Develop local bank capabilities and banks, etc. to evaluate next steps
x Put interested industrial parties in touch knowledge on these sectors x Create new mechanisms, e.g.
with financial institutions and other x Elaborate case studies and success Multi-currency swaps, partial
sources of finance stories based on international examples, guarantees, to continue driving
x Assist industrial project developers in the to disseminate nationally finance to solar industries
development of business plans x Participate in the development of a
regional Clean Innovation Center
Qualified x Perform a detailed analysis of required x Develop national, regional and x Perform a review of required
labor capabilities and gaps international collaboration programs capabilities and gaps to identify
requirements x Begin a “training the trainers” technical with universities and academic missing capabilities
capability development program institutions x Put in place any required
x Begin a management program focused on x Increase the breadth and depth of programs to meet these gaps
the solar industry training programs according to market x Develop programs to transform
development Egypt into a capability trainer in
the region
Technology x Identify technological gaps in the local x Coordinate activities to bridge x Perform a review of
transfer industry required for solar industry technological gaps with the solar technological knowledge and gaps
development industry cluster being developed to see how many are left to bridge
x Coordinate a local platform of interested x Support the cluster to generate the x Develop new mechanisms to
industrial players and academics in order matches between interested industries close the gaps
to generate interest and establish the most x Compile and disseminate success
effective ways of bridging the gaps stories
Clustering x Identify interested industrial partners and x Support the cluster and disseminate x Create new clusters based on the
a champion to lead the cluster information about it original cluster
x Create cluster with virtual infrastructure x Prepare for the existence of a physical
x Catalyze the creation of the cluster cluster, including infrastructure, etc.
Materials x Engage with local upstream materials x Analyze and consider new mechanisms x Review whether material supply
supply partners from the start, to give them for improving material flow to the to the industry is an issue
visibility on sector requirements for both industry x If applicable, put in place
quality and quantity additional policies or mechanisms
x Engage with international upstream to help flow
materials partners for materials not x Analyze further opportunities for
available in Egypt Egypt to export materials

Exports x Identify preliminary list of potential x Analyze possible mechanisms that x Review success of export policy
markets for Egyptian solar components could be applied and identify new actions if
x Identify existing or potential barriers for x Apply said mechanisms and, in program has not been successful
said exports parallel, develop bilateral or multilateral x Review preliminary list of
agreements with other countries potential markets to expand to
Certification x Analyze existing Egyptian technical x Assist in the development of standards x Develop accreditation activities
and standards applicable to the industry for x Encourage collaboration between x Continue encouraging
accreditation availability and quality different parties collaboration to stay on top of
x Develop a list of requirements and x Disseminate results nationally and new technological developments
identify actors who can assist in internationally
developing said standards
J.F. Servert and E. Cerrajero / Energy Procedia 69 (2015) 1498 – 1507 1507

Acknowledgements

This paper was based on the works carried out under the World Bank technical assistance TA. C.N. 7161793,
financed by the Norwegian Trust Fund for Private Sector and Infrastructure (NTF-PSI) and the Energy Sector
Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) representing the commitment of the World Bank and these
organizations to support the MENA countries in the development of opportunities around solar energy.
This paper has not undergone the review accorded to official World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and
conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and
its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors. World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the
data included in this work.

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