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The 13th TUE Subcommittee Document 1-2: Associations between absorbed doses to the

thyroid by municipality estimated by UNSCEAR and detection rates of confirmed or


suspected cancer (Note: page numbers correspond to the original document.)

1. Associations between thyroid absorption doses estimated by UNSCEAR (maximum) and


detection rates of confirmed or suspected thyroid cancer in ages 6–14*

Table 1. Adjustment factors in the first round (ages 6–14 at the time of the accident,
maximum doses**)
< 20 mGy 20–25 mGy 25–30 mGy ≥ 30 mGy
Female (%) 48.8 49.3 48.8 49.4
Age at the primary examination (average) 12.3 11.7 11.4 11.9
Proportion of participants by screening year (%)
FY 2011 3.1 14.0 12.7 23.0
FY 2012 21.3 82.4 85.6 2.8
FY 2013 and later 75.6 3.6 1.7 74.2

Table 2. Adjustment factors in the second round (ages 6–14 at the time of the accident,
maximum doses**)
< 20 mGy 20–25 mGy 25–30 mGy ≥ 30 mGy
Female (%) 48.9 49.5 49.0 49.5
Age at the primary examination (average) 14.1 13.7 13.5 14.1
Proportion of participants by screening year (%)
FY 2014 25.5 95.2 97.3 23.3
FY 2015 74.5 4.8 2.7 76.7
Proportion by screening interval (%)
No participation in the first round 5.4 2.1 2.4 4.2
< 2 years 51.1 20.0 11.1 8.9
≥ 2 years, < 2.5 years 41.1 72.7 81.8 61.0
≥ 2.5 years 2.4 5.3 4.7 25.9
Screening year: time interval between primary examinations of the first and second rounds

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Figure 1. Odds ratios*** for detection rates of confirmed or suspected cancer in ages 6–14 at
the time of the accident, divided according to maximum** estimated thyroid absorption dose
by municipality (95% confidence intervals shown as vertical lines)

A. The first round

Adjusted for: sex & age sex, age & screening year

B. The second round

Adjusted for: sex & age sex, age & screening year sex, age, screening interval sex, age, year & interval

C. Dose by municipality

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*Analysis with data as of June 30, 2017.
**Doses used are absorbed thyroid dose (Total) from Table C-16.2 in Attachment C-16 and
absorbed thyroid dose (Total dose) from Table C-18.5 in Attachment C-18, in Annex A,
UNSCEAR 2013 Report. The maximum dose was used when multiple estimated doses are
shown for a municipality. Confirmed or suspected cancer cases were divided into 4 dose
groups according to estimated thyroid dose by municipality.
***Odds ratios were calculated with logistic regression analysis with the < 20 mGy group as
reference.

Note:

Table C-16.2 “Average absorbed dose to the thyroid of 10-year-old children in the first year
after the accident for Fukushima Prefecture (excluding evacuated areas)” in Attachment C-16

Table C-18.5 “Estimated settlement-average absorbed doses to the thyroid of 10-year-old


children in the first year evacuated from localities in Fukushima Prefecture, including doses
received before and during the evacuation and at the destination” in Attachment C-18

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2. Associations between thyroid absorption doses estimated by UNSCEAR (minimum) and
detection rates of confirmed or suspected thyroid cancer in ages 6–14*

Table 3. Adjustment factors in the first round (ages 6–14 at the time of the accident,
minimum doses**)
< 20 mGy 20–25 mGy 25–30 mGy ≥ 30 mGy
Female (%) 48.9 49.2 48.6 49.5
Age at the primary examination (average) 12.2 11.6 11.4 12.2
Proportion of participants by screening year (%)
FY 2011 8.8 23.1 7.0 7.9
FY 2012 20.2 73.3 91.3 1.9
FY 2013 and later 71.1 3.6 1.8 90.1

Table 2. Adjustment factors in the second round (ages 6–14 at the time of the accident,
minimum doses**)
< 20 mGy 20–25 mGy 25–30 mGy ≥ 30 mGy
Female (%) 49.0 49.5 48.8 49.6
Age at the primary examination (average) 14.1 13.6 13.5 14.3
Proportion of participants by screening year (%)
FY 2014 29.8 94.8 97.4 8.0
FY 2015 70.2 5.2 2.6 92.1
Proportion by screening interval (%)
No participation in the first round 5.1 2.5 2.5 4.1
< 2 years 48.1 18.6 11.8 9.4
≥ 2 years, < 2.5 years 43.2 69.8 81.4 63.3
≥ 2.5 years 3.6 9.1 4.3 23.2
Screening year: time interval between primary examinations of the first and second rounds

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Figure 2. Odds ratios*** for detection rates of confirmed or suspected cancer in ages 6–14 at
the time of the accident, divided according to minimum** estimated thyroid absorption dose
by municipality (95% confidence intervals shown as vertical lines)

A. The first round

Adjusted for: sex & age sex, age & screening year

B. The second round

Adjusted for: sex & age sex, age & screening year sex, age, screening interval sex, age, year & interval

C. Dose by municipality

14
*Analysis with data as of June 30, 2017.
** Doses used are absorbed thyroid dose (Total) from Table C-16.2 in Attachment C-16 and
absorbed thyroid dose (Total dose) from Table C-18.5 in Attachment C-18, in Annex A,
UNSCEAR 2013 Report. The minimum dose was used when multiple estimated doses are shown
for a municipality. Confirmed or suspected cancer cases were divided into 4 dose groups
according to estimated thyroid dose by municipality.
***Odds ratios were calculated with logistic regression analysis with the < 20 mGy group as
reference.

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3. Associations between thyroid absorption doses estimated by UNSCEAR (maximum) and
detection rates of confirmed or suspected thyroid cancer in ages ≥ 15*

Table 1. Adjustment factors in the first round (ages ≥ 15 at the time of the accident,
maximum doses**)
< 20 mGy 20–25 mGy 25–30 mGy ≥ 30 mGy
Female (%) 55.8 51.5 52.9 51.1
Age at the primary examination (average) 18.9 18.1 18.2 17.2
Proportion of participants by screening year (%)
FY 2011 8.4 18.3 2.4 92.6
FY 2012 11.2 68.9 56.0 5.0
FY 2013 and later 80.4 13.7 41.6 2.4

Table 2. Adjustment factors in the second round (ages ≥ 15 at the time of the accident,
maximum doses**)
< 20 mGy 20–25 mGy 25–30 mGy ≥ 30 mGy
Female (%) 58.6 55.4 56.2 55.6
Age at the primary examination (average) 21.0 20.5 20.4 20.0
Proportion of participants by screening year (%)
FY 2014 8.2 64.7 46.7 76.2
FY 2015 91.8 35.3 53.3 23.8
Proportion by screening interval (%)
No participation in the first round 24.0 9.6 10.1 4.8
< 2 years 24.8 23.2 28.2 7.3
≥ 2 years, < 2.5 years 41.3 44.0 47.6 17.9
≥ 2.5 years 9.9 23.3 14.1 69.9
Screening year: time interval between primary examinations of the first and second rounds

16
Figure 3. Odds ratios*** for detection rates of confirmed or suspected cancer in ages ≥ 15 at
the time of the accident, divided according to maximum** estimated thyroid absorption dose
by municipality (95% confidence intervals shown as vertical lines)

A. The first round

Adjusted for: sex & age sex, age & screening year

B. The second round

Adjusted for: sex & age sex, age & screening year sex, age, screening interval sex, age, year & interval

C. Dose by municipality

17
*Analysis with data as of June 30, 2017.
**Doses used are absorbed thyroid dose (Total) from Table C-16.1 in Attachment C-16 and
absorbed thyroid dose (Total dose) from Table C-18.4 in Attachment C-18, in Annex A,
UNSCEAR 2013 Report. The maximum dose was used when multiple estimated doses are
shown for a municipality. Confirmed or suspected cancer cases were divided into 4 dose
groups according to estimated thyroid dose by municipality.
***Odds ratios were calculated with logistic regression analysis with the < 20 mGy group as
reference.

Note:

Table C-16.1 “Average absorbed dose to the thyroid of adults in the first year after the
accident for Fukushima Prefecture (excluding evacuated areas)” in Attachment C-16

Table C-18.4 “Estimated settlement-average absorbed doses to the thyroid of adults in the
first year evacuated from localities in Fukushima Prefecture, including doses received before
and during the evacuation and at the destination” in Attachment C-18

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4. Associations between thyroid absorption doses estimated by UNSCEAR (minimum) and
detection rates of confirmed or suspected thyroid cancer in ages ≥ 15*

Table 7. Adjustment factors in the first round (ages > 15 at the time of the accident,
minimum doses**)
< 20 mGy 20–25 mGy 25–30 mGy ≥ 30 mGy
Female (%) 54.9 51.5 52.9 51.8
Age at the primary examination (average) 18.6 18.0 18.2 17.3
Proportion of participants by screening year (%)
FY 2011 22.5 23.0 2.6 90.6
FY 2012 10.3 64.0 55.9 6.4
FY 2013 and later 67.2 13.1 41.5 3.1

Table 8. Adjustment factors in the second round (ages ≥ 15 at the time of the accident,
minimum doses**)
< 20 mGy 20–25 mGy 25–30 mGy ≥ 30 mGy
Female (%) 58.9 55.3 56.2 53.5
Age at the primary examination (average) 21.0 20.4 20.4 20.1
Proportion of participants by screening year (%)
FY 2014 13.8 66.2 46.7 70.1
FY 2015 86.3 33.8 53.3 29.9
Proportion by screening interval (%)
No participation in the first round 22.5 9.1 10.1 4.8
< 2 years 23.0 21.9 28.2 10.7
≥ 2 years, < 2.5 years 42.2 40.0 47.7 30.1
≥ 2.5 years 12.4 29.0 14.1 54.3
Screening year: time interval between primary examinations of the first and second rounds

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Figure 4. Odds ratios*** for detection rates of confirmed or suspected cancer in ages ≥ 15 at
the time of the accident, divided according to minimum** estimated thyroid absorption dose
by municipality (95% confidence intervals shown as vertical lines)

A. The first round


Adjusted for: sex & age sex, age & screening year

B. The second round****

Adjusted for: sex & age sex, age & screening year sex, age, screening interval sex, age, year & interval

C. Dose by municipality

20
*Analysis with data as of June 30, 2017.
** Doses used are absorbed thyroid dose (Total) from Table C-16.1 in Attachment C-16 and
absorbed thyroid dose (Total dose) from Table C-18.4 in Attachment C-18, in Annex A,
UNSCEAR 2013 Report. The minimum dose was used when multiple estimated doses are shown
for a municipality. Confirmed or suspected cancer cases were divided into 4 dose groups
according to estimated thyroid dose by municipality.
***Odds ratios were calculated with logistic regression analysis with the < 20 mGy group as
reference.
****Odds ratios for ≥ 20 mGy could not be calculated because there are no confirmed or suspected
cancer cases in municipalities with dose ≥ 20 mGy.

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Summary of the results

• The absorbed doses to the thyroid estimated by UNSCEAR are estimated by theoretical
calculation for the first year after the accident.

• Regarding an association between estimated thyroid absorption doses by UNSCEAR and


detection rates of thyroid cancer (including suspected cancer) for ages 6–14 in the first
round, the odds ratios tended to be slightly higher in the 20–25 mGy group compared
to the ≤ 20 mGy group when maximum doses were used. The same tendency was seen
when minimum doses were applied. However, in either analysis, an increase in
detection rates of thyroid cancer (including suspected cancer) with increasing dose
(dose-response relationship) was not observed.

• Regarding an association between estimated thyroid absorption doses by UNSCEAR and


detection rates of thyroid cancer (including suspected cancer) for ages 6–14 in the
second round, the sex- and age-adjusted odds ratio was significantly high only in the
20–25 mGy group compared to the ≤ 20 mGy group when maximum doses were used.
However, significant difference was no longer seen when the odds ratios were
adjusted for screening interval and screening year. The trend was about the same
when minimum doses were applied. However, in either analysis, no dose-response
relationship was observed.

• Regarding an association between estimated thyroid absorption doses by UNSCEAR and


detection rates of thyroid cancer (including suspected cancer) for ages ≥ 15 in the first
round, no clear differences were seen in the odds ratios either with minimum or
maximum doses. However, in either analysis, no dose-response relationship was
observed.

• Regarding an association between estimated thyroid absorption doses by UNSCEAR and


detection rates of thyroid cancer (including suspected cancer) for ages ≥ 15 in the
second round, no clear differences were seen in the odds ratios when maximum doses
were applied. When minimum doses were applied, the odds ratio adjusted with sex,
age, screening year and screening interval was significantly low only in the 15-20 mGy
group compared with the < 10 mGy group. However, in either analysis, no dose-
response relationship was observed.

• In an attempt to address inconsistency in size of 4 groups classified by doses, an


analysis was conducted with quartiles of thyroid absorption doses, but the results were
the same.

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