Continious time Year Quarter Demand (000s) Moving Avergaes

1 Year 1 1 20.35
2 2 29.94
3 3 28.48 28.94
4 4 36.98 33.83
5 Year 2 1 39.92 35.19
6 2 35.38 36.48
7 3 33.63 37.98
8 4 43.00 38.98
9 Year 3 1 43.92 39.54
10 2 37.59 40.22
11 3 36.36 41.09
12 4 46.49 41.67
13 Year 4 1 46.24 41.91
14 2 38.56 42.36
15 3 38.14 43.26
16 4 50.12
17 Year 5 1
18 2
19 3
20 4
 Centered Moving avergaes Seasonality and Irregulartites Seasonality Desosonalise Demand
1.10 18.43
0.93 32.35
31.38 0.907 0.89 32.12
34.51 1.072 1.09 33.83
35.83 1.114 1.10 36.15
37.23 0.950 0.93 38.24
38.48 0.874 0.89 37.93
39.26 1.095 1.09 39.34
39.88 1.101 1.10 39.77
40.65 0.925 0.93 40.63
41.38 0.879 0.89 41.00
41.79 1.113 1.09 42.53
42.14 1.097 1.10 41.87
42.81 0.901 0.93 41.68
0.89 43.01
1.09 45.85
1.10
0.93
0.89
1.09

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.860670014
R Square 0.740752874
Adjusted R Square 0.722235222
Standard Error 3.405965015
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 464.0532246 464.0532246
Residual 14 162.4083676 11.60059769
Total 15 626.4615922

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 27.86560813 1.786103122 15.60134338
Continious time 1.168273266 0.184714388 6.324755111
Trend Forecast Error Error^2 Absolute error
29.03 32.06 -11.71 137.21 11.71
30.20 27.95 1.99 3.97 1.99
31.37 27.82 0.66 0.44 0.66
32.54 35.57 1.41 2.00 1.41
33.71 37.22 2.70 7.28 2.70
34.88 32.27 3.11 9.69 3.11
36.04 31.96 1.68 2.81 1.68
37.21 40.68 2.32 5.40 2.32
38.38 42.38 1.54 2.36 1.54
39.55 36.59 1.00 1.00 1.00
40.72 36.10 0.25 0.06 0.25
41.88 45.79 0.71 0.50 0.71
43.05 47.54 -1.30 1.69 1.30
44.22 40.92 -2.35 5.54 2.35
45.39 40.25 -2.11 4.45
46.56 50.90
47.73 52.70
48.89 45.24
50.06 44.39
51.23 56.00

Quarter Seasonality
1 1.104
2 0.925
3 0.887
4 1.093
 F Significance F
40.00252721 1.87588E-05

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

3.02229E-10 24.03479793 31.69641833 24.03479793 31.69641833
1.87588E-05 0.772100307 1.564446226 0.772100307 1.564446226
Absolute error/sales
0.58
0.07
0.02
0.04 Mape 8.12%
0.07
0.09
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.06
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.860670014
R Square 0.740752874
Adjusted R Sq0.722235222
Standard Erro3.405965015
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 464.0532246 464.0532246 40.00252721 1.87588E-05
Residual 14 162.4083676 11.60059769
Total 15 626.4615922

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 27.86560813 1.786103122 15.60134338 3.02229E-10 24.03479793 31.69641833
Continious ti 1.168273266 0.184714388 6.324755111 1.87588E-05 0.772100307 1.564446226
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
24.03479793 31.69641833
0.772100307 1.564446226