Data analysis:

Data analysis is a process wherein statistical, mathematical and analytical methods or tools are
used to interpret the result about a set of data. It is the most important part in any research or theses.
It paves the way to take a decision based on the collected data. With a view to getting a relationship
over our collected secondary data on Imports, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Exports,
Remittance and Foreign assistance about our country; we analyze the data using some statistical
tools. We use data analysis software to interpret a relationship on the data and take a decision based
on the standard decision criterion for the analysis method. For our analysis purpose, we use
Regression method to build a Regression Model. It will assist us to take a decision on which
variables our country’s import capability are dependent. There are four variables - Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), Exports, Remittance and Foreign assistance that can lead import value of our
county. Our objective is to find which variable(s) are most important factor for import value for
our county. We use regression analysis over the data and based on the standard criterion for
approving (t-test-test, Adjusted R2) a certain variable’s importance is ignored if the variable’s data
is not passed by standard decision criterion of Regression. To get a final result, we apply regression
analysis more than one to sure that a certain variable among the four ones is really a strong
relationship or importance on Import capability of our county. Finally, we build a regression model
which is the basis for finding impacted import value over a change of any variables among the
four.

Let, X1 represents Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

X2 represents Exports value
X3 represents Remittance
X4 represents Foreign assistance
Y represents imports value
Decision criterion of Regression Analysis on Independent variable:
In our analysis we have four independent variables namely X1, X2, X3, X4 and one
dependent variable Y. Through regression analysis and standard decision criterion given below
we make decision which independent variables will be considered in determining the value of
dependent variable Y.
Decision criterion has three test value.
(i) T-test value
(ii) F-test value
(iii) Adjusted R2 value.
All three-test value of X1, X2, X3, X4 variables need to satisfy to be passed. If any variable
fails, it will not impact any importance in determining import value Y.
 (I) T-test value’s pass condition:
If the absolute value of t-test of an independent variable is greater or equal to 2. We
take the decision that the variable is passed in t-test.
|𝒕 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆| ≥ 2

(II) F-test value’s pass condition:

If the value of F-test of an independent variable is greater or equal to 2. We take the
decision that the variable is passed in F-test.

𝑭 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 ≥ 𝟐

(III) Adjusted R2 value’s pass condition:

If the value of Adjusted R2 test of an independent variable is close to 1. We take the
decision that the variable is passed in Adjusted R2 test.
𝑨𝒅𝒋𝒖𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝑹𝟐 → 𝟏
The input data collected form a secondary source is given in Table No. 1.
Table 1: Input Data for Analysis
Year Import Gross Exports Remittances Foreign
Value Domestic Value Million $ Assistance
Million Product Million $ Million $
$ (GDP)
Billion $

Y X1 X2 X3 X4

1997 6947 1664.24 3882.4 1217.1 770.0

1998 7152 1752.85 4418.3 1475.4 850.0
1999 7520 1844.44 5161.2 1525.4 944.2
2000 8006 1934.37 5312.8 1705.7 1162.7
2001 8374 2049.27 5752.2 1949.3 1140.4
2002 9335 2157.35 6467.3 2082.1 1222.1
2003 8540 2252.61 5986.1 2501.1 1006.9
2004 9658 2370.95 6548.4 3062.0 1133.1
2005 10903 2519.70 7603.1 3372.0 1234.2
2006 13147 2669.74 8654.5 3848.3 1015.8
2007 14746 2846.73 10526.2 4100.3 1078.8
2008 17157 3029.73 12177.9 4978.5 1099.5
2009 21629 3217.26 14110.8 5914.8 1376.5
2010 22507 3401.97 15565.2 6689.3 1022.8
2011 23738 3600.47 16204.65 7555.2 1277.0
 To get more accurate value to fit for linear relationship we convert the values of the variables
into natural logarithm (loge i.e. ln). The conversion is like this,
Variable’s value >ln (variable’s value)
Natural logarithm converted values of variables are shown in Table No. 2.
Table No. 2: Natural Logarithm converted values of input data

Import Value Gross Exports Remittances Foreign

Million $ Domestic Value Million $ Assistance
Product Million $ Million $
(GDP)
Billion $

Y X1 X2 X3 X4
8.846065 7.417124 8.264209 7.104193393 6.646390515
8.875147 7.468997 8.39351 7.296697974 6.745236349
8.925321 7.519928 8.548924 7.330031617 6.850338008
8.987947 7.567536 8.577874 7.441754313 7.058500166
9.032887 7.625241 8.657338 7.575235873 7.039134357
9.141526 7.676638 8.774514 7.641132279 7.108325969
9.052516 7.719843 8.697195 7.824497909 6.914631583
9.175542 7.771046 8.786976 8.026813779 7.032712518
9.296793 7.831895 8.936311 8.123252422 7.118178266
9.483949 7.889736 9.065835 8.255384173 6.923431758
9.598727 7.953926 9.261623 8.318815421 6.983604591
9.750162 8.016229 9.407378 8.512877894 7.002629
9.98179 8.076285 9.554696 8.685209582 7.227328383
10.02158 8.13211 9.652793 8.808258534 6.930328574
10.07485 8.18882 9.693054 8.929991347 7.152300179

We use this natural logarithm (ln) converted input data as input parameters for Regression
analysis. We use Excel software’s build in Regression method. The summarized output of 1st
Regression analysis is shown in Table No. 3.
 Table No. 3: Summarized output of 1st time Regression Analysis

Dependent Independent Variable

Variable
Intercept
Import Value Gross Export Remittance Foreign
Domestic Value Assistance
Product
Y (GDP)
X2 X4
X1 X3

Coefficient 8.72020435 -1.7357954 1.22435546 0.52552995 -0.1443256

t-test value 1.9149274 -1.500947 5.5341801 1.3880821 -1.217136

Adjusted R2 value 0.98566376

F-test value 241.636501

From the Table No. 3, we see that among the four variable X1, X2, X3, X4, the t-test value for X2
variable is passed as its value t-test absolute value is greater than 2. All the three other variable’s
t-test variable is not passed. Among the three variables X1, X3, X4; X4 has the lowest t-test value.
To confirm that other variable X1 might have chance to increase t-test value in later regression
excluding X4 variables data, we ignore the data of X4 variable and perform 2nd Regression analysis
with Y, X1, X2, X3 variables’ data from Table No. 2: Natural logarithm converted input data. So,
our input data for 2nd regression are shown in Table No. 4.
 Table No. 4: Natural Logarithm converted input data for 2nd Regression

Import Value Gross Exports Remittances

Million $ Domestic Value Million $
Product Million $
(GDP) Billion
$

Y X1 X2 X3
8.846065 7.417124 8.264209 7.104193393
8.875147 7.468997 8.39351 7.296697974
8.925321 7.519928 8.548924 7.330031617
8.987947 7.567536 8.577874 7.441754313
9.032887 7.625241 8.657338 7.575235873
9.141526 7.676638 8.774514 7.641132279
9.052516 7.719843 8.697195 7.824497909
9.175542 7.771046 8.786976 8.026813779
9.296793 7.831895 8.936311 8.123252422
9.483949 7.889736 9.065835 8.255384173
9.598727 7.953926 9.261623 8.318815421
9.750162 8.016229 9.407378 8.512877894
9.98179 8.076285 9.554696 8.685209582
10.02158 8.13211 9.652793 8.808258534
10.07485 8.18882 9.693054 8.929991347

The summarized output of 2nd regression with the variables Y, X1, X2, X3 are given in Table
No.5.
 Table No. 5: Summarized output of 2nd Regression Analysis
Dependent Independent Variable
Variable
Intercept
Import Value Gross Export Remittance
Domestic Value
Product
Y (GDP)
X2
X1 X3
Coefficient 9.633075066 -2.155983337 1.268486533 0.645379853

t-test value 2.09923434 -1.9119585 5.68908556 1.72798858

Adjusted R2 value 0.985036326

F-test value 308.1997

From Table No. 5, we see in 2nd Regression analysis result, among the three-independent variable
X1, X2, X3, again t-test value for X2 variable only is passed as its t-test absolute value is
5.68908556 which is greater than 2. All other two variable X1 and X3 variable’s t-test variable is
not passed. And between t-test absolute value of X1 and X3; X3 variable’s corresponding t-test
value is lower. So, we ignore the data of X3 variable and perform 3rd Regression analysis with Y,
X1, X2 variable’s data from Table No. 2: Natural logarithm converted input data. Hence, our input
data for 3rd Regression Analysis is shown in Table No. 6.
 Table No. 6: Natural logarithm converted input data for 3rd Regression

Import Value Gross Exports

Million $ Domestic Value
Product Million $
(GDP) Billion
$

Y X1 X2
8.846065 7.417124 8.264209
8.875147 7.468997 8.39351
8.925321 7.519928 8.548924
8.987947 7.567536 8.577874
9.032887 7.625241 8.657338
9.141526 7.676638 8.774514
9.052516 7.719843 8.697195
9.175542 7.771046 8.786976
9.296793 7.831895 8.936311
9.483949 7.889736 9.065835
9.598727 7.953926 9.261623
9.750162 8.016229 9.407378
9.98179 8.076285 9.554696
10.02158 8.13211 9.652793
10.07485 8.18882 9.693054

The summarized output for 3rd Regression analysis is shown in below in Table No. 7.
 Table No. 7: Summarized output of 3rd Regression analysis

Dependent Independent Variable

Variable
Intercept
Import Value Gross Export
Domestic Value
Product
Y (GDP)
X2
X1

Coefficient 1.975814084 -0.319691664 1.101979726

t-test value 1.535295859 -0.785085957 5.076529293

Adjusted R2 value 0.982559907

F-test value 395.374017

From 3rd Regression analysis we see that X2 variable’s t-test value is again satisfy the condition
that t-test’s absolute value must be greater than 2. But, X1 variable’s t-test value does not meet the
condition. So, we ignore X2 variable. And, surprisingly, we see that the value of the intercept is
1.975814084 in 3rd Regression analysis while in 2nd and 1st Regression analysis it was respectively
8.72020435 and 9.633075066. So, there is a question “Will in next regression analysis the intercept
value and coefficient of X2 value change if we do 4th Regression with Y and X2 variable”. To get
its answer we do 4th and final Regression analysis with Y and X2. In this Regression analysis’s
value will assist us to give answer all question related to our assigned task.

So, our input data for 4th and final regression analysis is given below in Table No. 8
 Table No. 8: Natural logarithm converted input data for 4th Regression

Import Value Exports Value

Million $ Million $

X2
Y
8.846065 8.264209
8.875147 8.39351
8.925321 8.548924
8.987947 8.577874
9.032887 8.657338
9.141526 8.774514
9.052516 8.697195
9.175542 8.786976
9.296793 8.936311
9.483949 9.065835
9.598727 9.261623
9.750162 9.407378
9.98179 9.554696
10.02158 9.652793
10.07485 9.693054

The output of 4th Regression analysis is given in Table No. 9.

 Table No. 9: Summarized output of 4th Regression analysis

Dependent Independent Variable

Variable
Intercept
Import Value Export Value

Y X2

Coefficient 0.992864311 0.933564886

t-test value 3.385792133 28.53345595

Adjusted R2 value 0.983074578

F-test value 814.1581082

A data is said to be passed only when in regression analysis three test’s minimum value is
obtained.
(i) T-test: According to t-test pass condition, absolute value of t-test must be greater or
equal to 2. In 4th Regression result above in Table 9 we see that its value of X2
variable is 28.53345595 which is greater than 2
(ii) F-test: According to F-test pass condition, F-test value must be greater or equal to 2.
In 4th Regression result above in Table 9 we see that its value is 814.1581082 which
is greater than 2.
(iii) Adjusted R2: According to Adjusted R2 pass condition, Adjusted R2 value must be
close to 1. In 4th Regression analysis result above in Table 9 we see that its value is
0.983074578 that is close to 1.
Hence all three condition satisfies. So, based on all three condition, only variable X2 satisfies the
condition to be selected in regression equation to estimate dependent variable Y i.e. import
value.
Though in 1st ,2nd and 3rd Regression analysis result we see F-test and Adjusted R2 value satisfies
the pass condition but only X2 variables pass the t-test pass condition. To confirm only X2 has
most significance role in estimating import value we use regression analysis 4 times and finally
in 4th Regression analysis time we confirm that only X2 variable is needed to determine
estimated dependent variable, import value.
From the above table, we see that coefficient of X2 variable and intercept value changes. So,4th
time Regression analysis with Y and X2 variable provides us more accurate result compare to 3rd
,2nd,1st time Regression analysis. Hence, from our collected secondary data we can conclude that
only Export value significant importance to Import value, compare to other variables like Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), Remittance and foreign assistance. So, in our regression model i.e.
Regression equation we will give importance only in independent variable Export value to
determine Estimated Import value.

Therefore, our regression model i.e. simple linear regression equation will be,

𝑙𝑛𝑌 = 0.992864311 + 0.933564886 ∗ X2 ………………………………………… ...(1)

Here, X2 represents natural logarithm(ln) converted value of export amount to determine estimated value
of import.
To solve the equation (1), let take a variable small x2 that represents input value of export amount without
converting into natural logarithm. And X2 represents converted value of export amount into natural
logarithm i.e. ln.

Then, X2=ln(x2)

So, from equation 1 we get,

𝑙𝑛𝑌 = 0.992864311 + 0.933564886 ∗ 𝑙𝑛(x2) ; Where x is input value of export

amount

Or, 𝑌 = 𝑒 (0.992864311+0.933564886∗ln(𝑥2) …………………………………………………. (2)

Case-1: Does Bangladesh need foreign assistance to survive?
Explanatory Answer:
Our objective in this research was to find relationship of import value to the independent
variables- Gross domestic product (GDP), Export value, Remittance and foreign assistance with
a collected secondary data of our country. We find this relationship i.e. regression equation
shown in equation (2).
Since in this equation, foreign assistance X4 variable is not exist, we can conclude that
Bangladesh can survive without foreign assistance.
As in equation (2) has input value of export amount i.e. x2 (without ln converted), so high
amount of export value (million $) is needed to meet our necessity to importing necessary goods
for our county. So, it is our county’s main target to increase export value that will enable us to
import required products for country from foreign county.
Case-2: Suppose that the crisis continues in Europe. Our remittances go down to US $ 7000
million in 2012. Japan becomes a new market for our exports. So, export rises to USD 18000
million. GDP rises to USD 4000 billion in 2012. What will be your projection for Imports in
2012?
Explanatory Answer:
Equation (2), Regression equation shows that import value is dependent only on export value, so
if our export rises 18000 million USD, then the projected /estimated import value in 2012 will be
as follows;
Here, input value of export, x2=18000 (million USD)
Therefore, from equation (2) we get that
Estimated/Projected import value in 2012 is, 𝑌 = 𝑒 (0.992864311+0.933564886∗ln(𝑥2)

Or, 𝑌 = 𝑒 (0.992864311+0.933564886∗ln(18000)
Or, 𝑌 = 25337.77543 million USD