Any investment decision depends upon the decision rule that is applied under circumstances and it has
the following inputs; project life, cashflows and discounting factor. The effectiveness of the decision rule
depends on those factors.
i. Project identification and generation- this is a proposal for investments. There could be various
reasons for taking up investments in a business. It could be addition of a new product line or
expanding the existing ones. It could be a proposal to either increase the production or reduce
the cost of outputs.
ii. Project screening and evaluation- this step looks at the viability of the investment whether it
matches with the organization’s objectives. Also, the estimation of the benefits and the cost
needs to be done.
iii. Project selection- this highly depends on the screening and valuation phase. Once the proposal
is finalized they look at the different alternatives of raising or acquiring funds have to be
explored by the finance team i.e. preparing capital budget
iv. Implementation- the selected projected out of the many proposals is put into action and is
constantly monitored.
v. Performance review- this is where comparison of the actual results with the standard ones is
done. Improvements are made where necessary.
Availability of funds
Capital structure
Government policy
Management decisions
Economic value of the project
Lending terms of financial institutions
Capital return
These capital budgeting decisions have various techniques which are grouped into two;
1. UNDER CERTAINITY
This refers to decisions which involve valuation of capital projects in order to make a decision on
whether to undertake them. The finance manager is required to appraise the projects using capital
budgeting appraisal techniques in order to determine their viability
i. Non-discounted/ traditional
a) Payback period
It is the number of years to recover the original cash outlay. There two methods to calculate payback
period;
In this case the PBP is calculated till the time the cumulative cashflow becomes equal to the initial outlay
Illustration;
150000÷750000*12(months)=2months
=3years 2 months
The money will be recovered after 3 years and only 150000 shillings will be recovered from the 4th year
and it will take 2 months to get it.
Advantages
Disadvantages
This method is also known as return on investment and uses accounting information rather than
cashflow information. It is the ratio of the average after tax profit divided by the average investment.
Illustration
PERIOD CASHFLOW
1 150000
2 300000
3 350000
4 200000
5 120000
Average income=1120000/5= 224000
If the ARR is higher than the minimum rate established by the management then the project is accepted
but if its less than the minimum rate then the project is rejected.
Advantages
Disadvantages
ii. Discounted
a) Net present value
This is the difference between the present value of future cash inflows and the present value of the
initial outlay. It is known also as excess present value or net gain method.
These values are discounted using the discounting factor table or by calculation;
𝟏
( ) ^𝒏
𝟏+𝒓
The decision criteria
A firm contemplates to invest sh.600000 in an invest which has the following returns per annum. The
initial cost of capital is 10%. Using NPV advice the management on whether to make the investment.
INITIAL OUTLAY=600000
NPV=752530-600000= 152530
ADVANTAGES
DISADVANTAGES
This is the interest rate that equates the present value of the expected future cashflows to the present
value of the cash outflow. It is also the rate at which NPV is equated to zero. Its computed using the trial
and error method using the following steps;
P= Positive NPV
N= Negative NPV
DECISION CRITERIA
If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, accept the project (r > k)
If the IRR is less than the cost capital, reject the project (r < k)
Advantages
Disadvantages
c) Profitability index
This is a cost benefit ratio which compares the total present values of cash inflows and the total initial
outlay. Profitability index method is used to run projects under the conditions of capital rationing based
on their profitability.
ADVANTAGES
It considers time value of money as well as all the cashflows generated by the project
It is consistent with shareholders wealth maximization
Disadvantages
It requires estimation of cashflows with accuracy which is very difficult under the ever-changing
world.
It also requires correct estimation of cost of capital for getting the correct results.
When the cash outflow occurs beyond the current period, the P.I is unsuitable as a selection
criterion
Risk can be defined as the chance that the actual outcome will differ from the expected outcome.
Uncertainty relates to the situation where a range of differing outcome is possible, but it is not
possible to assign probabilities to this range of outcomes.
There are three different type project risk to be considered;
1. Standard alone risk- this is the risk of the project itself as measured in isolation from any effect it
may have on the firms overall corporate risk.
2. Corporate or within firm risk- this is the total or overall risk of the firm when its viewed as a
collection or portfolio of investment projects.
3. Market or systematic risk- this is the stock market’s assessment of a firm’s risk and it will affect
the firm’s share price.
The following are some techniques used in risk analysis in capital budgeting,
Sensitivity analysis
Scenario analysis
Simulation analysis
Decision tree approach
Break even analysis
1) Sensitivity analysis
While evaluating any capital budgeting project, there is a need to forecast cash flows. The forecasting of
cash flows depends on sales forecast and costs. The Sales revenue is a function of sales volume and unit
selling price. Sales volume will depend on the market size and the firm’s market share. The NPV and IRR
of a project are determined by analyzing the after-tax cash flows arrived at by combining various
variables of project cash flows, project life and discount rate. The behavior of all these variables are very
much uncertain. The sensitivity analysis helps in identifying how sensitive are the various estimated
variables of the project. It shows how sensitive is a project’s NPV or IRR for a given change in particular
variables.
The more sensitive the NPV, the more critical is the variables.
Steps:
The following three steps are involved in the use of sensitivity analysis.
1. Identify the variables which can influence the project’s NPV or IRR.
3. Analyze the impact of the change in each of the variables on the project’s NPV or IRR.
The Project’s NPV or IRR can be computed under following three assumptions in sensitivity analysis.
For example, A company has two mutually exclusive projects for process improvement. The
management has developed following estimates of the annual cash flows for each project having a life
of fifteen years and 12% discount rate.
Sensitivity analysis
Project – A
Project – B
The NPV calculations of both the projects suggest that the projects are equally desirable on the basis of
the most likely estimates of cash flows. However, the Project – A is riskier than Project – B because its
NPV can be negative to the extent of Rs. 21,890 but there is no possibility of incurring any losses with
project B as all the NPVs are positive. As the two projects are mutually exclusive, the actual selection of
the projects depends on decision maker’s attitude towards the risk. If he is ready to take risk, he will
select Project A, because it has the potential of yielding NPV much higher than (Rs. 53031) Project B. But
if he is risk averse, he will select project B.
Merits:
• It compels the decision maker to identify the variables affecting the cash flow forecasts
which helps in understanding the investment project in totality.
• It identifies the critical variables for which special actions can be taken.
• It guides the decision maker to concentrate on relevant variables for the project.
Demerits:
• The range of values suggested by the technique may not be consistent. The terms
‘optimistic’ and ‘pessimistic’ could mean different things to different people.
2) Scenario analysis
In sensitivity analysis, typically one variable is varied at a time. If variables are interrelated, as they are
most likely to be, it is helpful to look at some plausible scenarios, each scenario representing a
consistent combination of variables.
Procedure:
1. Select the factor around which scenarios will be built. The factor chosen must be the largest
source of uncertainty for the success of the project. It may be the state of the economy or interest rate
or technological development or response of the market.
2. Estimate the values of each of the variables in investment analysis (investment outlay, revenues,
costs, project life, and so on) for each scenario.
3. Calculate the net present value and/or internal rate of return under each scenario.
Illustration:
A company is evaluating a project for introducing a new product. Depending on the response of the
market - the factor which is the largest source of uncertainty for the success of the project - the
management of the firm has identified three scenarios:
Scenario 1: The product will have a moderate appeal to customers across the board at a modest
price.
Scenario 2: The product will strongly appeal to a large segment of the market which is highly price-
sensitive.
Scenario 3: The product will appeal to a small segment of the market which will be willing to pay a
high price.
Scenario analysis
(Rs in million)
Demand (Units) 40 80 20
Depreciation 40 40 40
In the above illustration, an attempt was made to develop scenarios in which the values of variables
were internally consistent. For example, high selling price and low demand typically go hand in hand.
Firms often do another kind of scenario analysis are considered: Best case and worst-case analysis. In
this kind of analysis, the following scenarios are considered:
Best scenario: High demand, high selling price, low variable cost, and so on.
Normal scenario: Average demand, average selling price, average variable cost, and so on.
Worst Scenario: Low demand, low selling price, high variable cost, and so on.
The objective of such scenario analysis is to get a feel of what happens under the most favorable or the
most adverse configuration of key variables, without bothering much about the internal consistency of
such configurations.
Evaluation:
• It is based on the assumption that there are few well-delineated scenarios. This may not be true
in many cases. For example, the economy does not necessarily lie in three discrete states, recession,
stability, and boom. It can in fact be anywhere on the continuum between the extremes. When a
continuum is converted into three discrete states some information is lost.
• Scenario analysis expands the concept of estimating the expected values. Thus, in a case where
there are 10 inputs the analyst has to estimate 30 expected values (3 x 10) to do the scenario analysis.
3) Simulation analysis
Sensitivity analysis and Scenario analysis are quite useful to understand the uncertainty of the
investment projects. But both the methods do not consider the interactions between variables and also,
they do not reflect on the probability of the change in variables. The power of the computer can help to
incorporate risk into capital budgeting through a technique called Monte Carlo simulation. The term
“Monte Carlo” implies that the approach involves the use of numbers drawn randomly from probability
distributions. It is statistically based approach which makes use of random numbers and preassigned
probabilities to simulate a project’s outcome or return. It requires a sophisticated computing package to
operate effectively. It differs from sensitivity analysis in the sense that instead of estimating a specific
value for a key variable, a distribution of possible values for each variable is used.
The simulation model building process begins with the computer calculating a random value
simultaneously for each variable identified for the model like market size, market growth rate, sales
price, sales volume, variable costs, residual asset values, project life etc. From this set of random values,
a new series of cash flows is created and a new NPV is calculated. This process is repeated numerous
times, perhaps as many as 1000 times or even more for very large projects, allowing a decision-maker to
develop a probability distribution of project NPVs. From the distribution model, a mean (expected) NPV
will be calculated and its associated standard deviation will be used to gauge the project’s level of risk.
The distribution of possible outcome enables the decision-maker to view a continuum of possible
outcomes rather than a single estimate.
Merits:
It facilitates the analysis and appraisal of highly complex, multivariate investment proposals with
the help of sophisticated computer packages.
It can cope up with both independence and dependence amongst variables. It forces decision-
makers to examine the relationship between variables.
Demerits:
The model requires accurate probability assessments of the key variables. For example,
it may be known that there is a correlation between sales price and volume sold but
specifying with mathematical accuracy the nature of the relationship for model purposes
may be difficult.
Constructing simulated financial models can be time-consuming, costly and requires
specialized skills, therefore. It is likely to be used to analyze very important, complex,
and large-scale projects.
It focuses on a project’s standalone risk. It ignores the impact of diversification, i.e., how
a project’s stand-alone risk will correlate with that of other projects within the firm and
affect the firm’s overall corporate risk.
Simulation is inherently imprecise. It provides a rough approximation of the probability
distribution of net present value (or any other criterion of merit).
A realistic simulation model, likely to be complex, would most probably be constructed
by a management scientist, not the decision maker. The decision maker, lacking
understanding of the model, may not use it.
Sometimes cash flow is estimated under different managerial options with the help of decision-tree
approach. A decision tree is a graphic presentation of the present decision with future events and
decisions. The sequence of events is shown in a format that resembles the branches of a tree.
The first step in constructing a decision tree is to define a proposal. It may be concerning either a new
product or an old product entering a new market. It may also be an abandonment option or a
continuation option, expansion option or no-expansion option, etc.
Second step is identifying various alternatives. For example, if a firm is launching a new product, it must
chalk out the demand possibilities and, on that basis, it identifies different alternatives-whether to have
a large factory or a medium-size or only a small plant. Each of the alternatives will have varying
consequences on the cash flow.
The third step is to lay out the decision tree showing the different alternatives through different
branches. And finally, the estimates of cash flow with probabilities in each branch are made. The results
of the different branches are calculated that show desirability of a particular alternative over the others.
For example, a company is considering a new machine having estimated cash flows as follows. The
machine is having a life of 2 years. The cost of machine is Rs. 2,000,000 and a company’s required rate of
return is 12%. If a company wants to use decision tree approach, recommend whether the machine
should be bought or not.
Merits:
Demerits:
The decision tree becomes more and more complicated if he includes more and more
alternatives. It becomes more complicated if the analysis includes interdependent variables
which are dependent on one another.
It becomes very difficult to construct decision tree if the number of years expected life of the
project and the number of possible outcomes for each year are large.
5) Break even analysis
In sensitivity analysis one may ask what will happen to the project if sales decline or costs increase or
something else happens. A financial manager will also be interested in knowing how much should be
produced and sold at a minimum to ensure that the project does not 'lose money'. Such an exercise is
called break even analysis and the minimum quantity at which loss is avoided is called the break-even
point. The breakeven point may be defined in accounting terms or financial terms.
The focus of financial break-even analysis is on NPV and not accounting profit. The level of sales
where NPV will be equal to zero.
To illustrate how the financial break-even level of sales is calculated, let us go back to the above
project. The annual cash flow of the project depends on sales as follows:
8. Cash flow (4 + 7) : Rs. 5.85 million +0.65 (0.4 sales - Rs.9 million)
: = 0.26 Sales
Since the cash flow lasts for 10 years, its present value at a discount rate of 10% is:
The project breaks even in NPV terms when the present value of these cash flows equals the initial
investment of Rs. 60 million. Hence, the financial break-even occurs when
Thus, the sales for the project must be Rs. 37.6 million per year for the investment to have a zero NPV.
Note that this is significantly higher than Rs. 22.5 million which represents the accounting break-even
sales.
There are statistical techniques that one can use to measure risk in investment appraisal;
Probability assignment
Expected net present value
Standard deviation
Coefficient of variation
Replacement analysis
Refers to decisions which involves replacing an old machine with a newer one.
1. Changes in technology
2. Rendering the current machinery obsolete
3. The desire to maximize the company’s production and efficiency
4. Expensive running and maintenance cost of the old machinery
During replacement analysis, the following cash-flow is important;
This is the amount of money in present value that is required by the company in order to implement
replacement decisions, and is compiled as follows;
Purchase cost xx
Installation xx
Insurance xx
Freight xx
Import duty xx xx
Overhaul cost xx
Xxx
Note
Gain/ loss on tax recapture refers to the tax effect which normally occurs due to disposal of the
old machinery.
Gain/loss of tax recapture = (gain/loss of disposal of the old machine) x (tax rate)
Net book value = (cost) – (accumulated depreciation)
Accumulated depreciation = (cost- salvage) ÷ (usefull life)
Refers to cashflow that is expected to be generated at the end of economic life of the project. It is
determined as follows;
Working capitals xx
Note;
Working capital refers to the amount of money required for day to day running of the machine before it
becomes self-sustaining. It forms part of the initial outlay at the beginning, however, it will be recovered
at the end and therefore it forms part of terminal cash flow.
This refers to the expected benefits generated by the machine during the normal trading operations, e.g
increase on production and savings on cost.
a) Depreciation method
Calculated as follows;
IEBT XXX
INOCF XXX
Incremental depreciation = (depreciation of the new machinery) – (depreciation of the old machine)
IEAT XXX
INOCF XXX
Incremental depreciation tax shield refers to benefits in form of tax savings that will accrue to the
company in case incremental depreciation is treated as wear and tear for tax purposes.
This refers to a situation whereby the funds are inadequate to undertake all the viable projects by the
organization. Profitability index method is applied during ranking of the projects basing on profitability.
Soft capital rationing- this is caused by internally generated factors of the company. It is self-
imposed capital rationing by the management of the company. Examples, management may opt
not to raise more equity so as to avoid dilution in the earning per share, a self-imposed
budgetary limit where the management puts a ceiling on the maximum amount to be spent on
investments.
Hard capital rationing-this is externally imposed by the market and its caused by factors beyond
the control of the company’s management. It occurs when the company has exhausted its
borrowing limits and is unable to raise funds externally. Examples, economic factors e.g. high
inflation, high competition for funds by different companies resulting into an increase in the cost
of borrowing.
Single period capital rationing- this is the insufficiency of capital during the current period
alone.
Multi period rationing- this is the insufficiency of capital during the current period as it extends
to the subsequent period.
This is the value of a project to an unlevered firm (NPV) plus the present value of the financing side
effects (NPVF);
Example: consider a project of the XYZ company. It wants to invest 1000$ with the cashflows as below.
The cost of equity is 10%. The company decides to finance the project with 600$ of debt at 8%. The
corporation tax rate is 40%. Calculate the APV.
NPV= 943.475-1000
=$-56.53
=$7.09
The project will be rejected by an all equity firm but accepted with debt.
REFERENCES