Forecast MAD MAPD(%) E 

Exponential smoothing (a = .30) 1301.034 5.57% 37730 1301.034

Exponential smoothing (a = .50) 1170.69 5.01% 33950 1170.69
Adjusted exponential smoothing (a = .50, b = .30) 1327.344 5.68% 38492.97 1327.344
Linear trend line 1123.785 4.98%

Comment:
Comparing the accuracy scores of each forecasting
method one will find that the Linear Trend line is the
closest in patterning after the historical trend. LTL has
the lowest score in MAD and MAPD.
 MSE
3216172
2779483
3228872
1749098

s of each forecasting
near Trend line is the
storical trend. LTL has
D and MAPD.
 Raw
Day 4-6 a.m 6-8 a.m 8-10 a.m 10-Noon Noon-2 p.m2-4 p.m 4-6 p.m
Year 1 1 2400 2700 3200 1400 1700 1800 1600
2 1900 2500 3100 1600 1800 2000 1800
3 2300 3100 2500 1500 1500 1800 1900
4 2200 3200 3100 2200 1900 2400 2100
5 2400 3300 3400 1700 2200 2100 2000
6 2600 2800 3500 1500 1700 1900 1500
7 1900 2800 3100 1200 1500 2000 1400
8 2000 2700 2500 1500 2000 2300 1900
9 2400 3200 3600 1600 2100 2500 1800
10 2600 3300 3100 200 2500 2600 2400
Year 2 11 3100 3900 4100 2200 2600 2300 2500
12 2800 3400 3900 1900 2100 2500 2000
13 2700 3800 4300 2100 2400 2400 2400
14 2400 3500 4100 2400 3000 3200 2600
15 3300 3700 4000 2600 2600 2700 2900
16 3500 4000 3800 2300 2700 3100 3000
17 2900 4100 3900 2400 3000 3200 2500
18 3400 3800 4200 2000 2500 3000 2200
19 3600 3600 4000 2300 2600 2800 2600
20 3700 3700 4000 2200 2600 2700 2400
Year 3 21 4400 4400 4500 2600 3300 3400 3000
22 4200 4500 4300 2500 3400 3600 3100
23 4500 4500 4700 2700 3400 3500 2900
24 4600 4600 4600 2500 3200 3500 2800
25 4500 4300 4400 2900 3300 3300 3300
26 4200 4300 4500 3000 4000 3400 3000
27 4500 4500 5100 3300 4000 3700 3100
28 4300 4200 4300 2800 3500 4000 3300
29 4900 4100 4200 3100 3600 3900 3400
30 4700 4500 4100 3000 4000 3700 3400
Year 4 31 4470.65 5017.61 5248.15 2947.28 3647.94 3855.88 3381.24
32 4546.39 5102.62 5337.06 2997.21 3709.74 3921.20 3438.52
33 4622.13 5187.63 5425.98 3047.15 3771.54 3986.53 3495.81
34 4697.87 5272.63 5514.89 3097.08 3833.35 4051.85 3553.09
35 4773.61 5357.64 5603.80 3147.01 3895.15 4117.18 3610.37
36 4849.35 5442.65 5692.72 3196.94 3956.95 4182.50 3667.66
37 4925.09 5527.66 5781.63 3246.88 4018.75 4247.83 3724.94
38 5000.83 5612.66 5870.54 3296.81 4080.56 4313.15 3782.23
39 5076.57 5697.67 5959.45 3346.74 4142.36 4378.48 3839.51
40 5152.31 5782.68 6048.37 3396.67 4204.16 4443.81 3896.80
 Period Factors
6-8 p.m 8-10 p.m Total Day 4-6 a.m 6-8 a.m 8-10 a.m 10-Noon Noon-2 p.
800 200 15800 31 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
900 300 15900 32 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
1100 200 15900 33 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
1200 400 18700 34 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
1000 600 18700 35 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
1100 300 16900 36 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
900 400 15200 37 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
1000 200 16100 38 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
1400 200 18800 39 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
1100 400 18200 40 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.10 0.12
1100 300 22100
1200 300 20100
1200 400 21700
1200 700 23100
1000 300 23100
900 200 23500
1100 500 23600
1000 300 22400
1200 200 22900
1200 200 22700
1200 400 27200
1400 300 27300
1200 300 27700
1300 300 27400
1500 400 27900
1500 600 28500
1200 300 29700
1100 400 27900
1400 500 29100
1200 500 29100
1564.05 479.16 30611.95
1590.55 487.28 31130.57
1617.04 495.39 31649.2
1643.54 503.51 32167.82
1670.04 511.63 32686.44
1696.54 519.75 33205.06
1723.03 527.87 33723.68
1749.53 535.98 34242.3
1776.03 544.10 34760.92
1802.53 552.22 35279.54
iod Factors
2-4 p.m 4-6 p.m 6-8 p.m 8-10 p.m
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
0.13 0.11 0.05 0.02
 Y 3 time periods 5 time
X Period Demand XY X^2 y = a + bx MA periods MA
1 15800 15800 1 15053.33
2 15900 31800 4 15571.95
3 15900 47700 9 16090.57
4 18700 74800 16 16609.2 15866.67
5 18700 93500 25 17127.82 16833.33
6 16900 101400 36 17646.44 17766.67 17000
7 15200 106400 49 18165.06 18100.00 17220
8 16100 128800 64 18683.68 16933.33 17080
9 18800 169200 81 19202.3 16066.67 17120
10 18200 182000 100 19720.92 16700.00 17140
11 22100 243100 121 20239.54 17700.00 17040
12 20100 241200 144 20758.16 19700.00 18080
13 21700 282100 169 21276.78 20133.33 19060
14 23100 323400 196 21795.4 21300.00 20180
15 23100 346500 225 22314.02 21633.33 21040
16 23500 376000 256 22832.64 22633.33 22020
17 23600 401200 289 23351.26 23233.33 22300
18 22400 403200 324 23869.89 23400.00 23000
19 22900 435100 361 24388.51 23166.67 23140
20 22700 454000 400 24907.13 22966.67 23100
21 27200 571200 441 25425.75 22666.67 23020
22 27300 600600 484 25944.37 24266.67 23760
23 27700 637100 529 26462.99 25733.33 24500
24 27400 657600 576 26981.61 27400.00 25560
25 27900 697500 625 27500.23 27466.67 26460
26 28500 741000 676 28018.85 27666.67 27500
27 29700 801900 729 28537.47 27933.33 27760
28 27900 781200 784 29056.09 28700.00 28240
29 29100 843900 841 29574.71 28700.00 28280
30 29100 873000 900 30093.33 28900.00 28620
31 30611.95
32 31130.57
33 31649.2
34 32167.82
35 32686.44
36 33205.06
37 33723.68
38 34242.3
39 34760.92
40 35279.54
 15.5
 22573.3333
b 518.62
a 14534.71
 Forecast, Fᵼ₊₁ Forecast Accuracy for α = .30

WMA at 0.5,0.33, & 0.17 α = .30 α = .50 Trend (Tᵼ₊₁) β = 0.30 AFᵼ₊₁ Error (Dᵼ - Fᵼ)
15800
15800 15800 0.00 15800.00 100
15830 15850 9.00 15839.00 70
15850 15900 15900 27.30 15927.30 2800
16376 16740 17300 271.11 17011.11 1960
17300 18700 18700 777.78 19477.78 -1800
18394 18160 17800 382.44 18542.44 -2960
17511 16390 16050 -263.29 16126.71 -290
16203 15470 15650 -460.30 15009.70 3330
16109 16910 17450 109.79 17019.79 1290
17348 18620 18500 589.85 19209.85 3480
19163 19370 20150 637.90 20007.90 730
19810 21500 21100 1085.53 22585.53 200
21372 20580 20900 483.87 21063.87 2520
21138 22120 22400 800.71 22920.71 980
22400 23100 23100 854.50 23954.50 400
23168 23220 23300 634.15 23854.15 380
23317 23530 23550 536.90 24066.90 -1130
23346 23240 23000 288.83 23528.83 -340
23085 22550 22650 -4.82 22545.18 150
22616 22840 22800 83.63 22923.63 4360
23565 24050 24950 421.54 24471.54 3250
24967 27230 27250 1249.08 28479.08 470
27318 27420 27500 931.35 28351.35 -20
27449 27610 27550 708.95 28318.95 290
27635 27550 27650 478.26 28028.26 950
27752 28080 28200 493.78 28573.78 1620
28404 28860 29100 579.65 29439.65 -960
28794 29160 28800 495.75 29655.75 -60
29004 28260 28500 77.03 28337.03 840
Forecast Accuracy for α = .30 Forecast Accuracy for α = .50 Forecast Accuracy for 3 time periods MA

|Dᵼ - Fᵼ | Error^2 (Dᵼ - Fᵼ)^2 Error (Dᵼ - Fᵼ) |Dᵼ - Fᵼ | Error^2 (Dᵼ - Fᵼ)^2 Error (Dᵼ - Fᵼ) |Dᵼ - Fᵼ |

100 10000 100 100 10000

70 4899.9999999995 50 50 2500
2800 7840000 2800 2800 7840000 2833.33 2833.33
1960 3841600 1400 1400 1960000 1866.67 1866.67
1800 3240000 -1800 1800 3240000 -866.67 866.67
2960 8761600 -2600 2600 6760000 -2900.00 2900.00
290 84100 50 50 2500 -833.33 833.33
3330 11088900 3150 3150 9922500 2733.33 2733.33
1290 1664100 750 750 562500 1500.00 1500.00
3480 12110400 3600 3600 12960000 4400.00 4400.00
730 532900 -50 50 2500 400.00 400.00
200 40000 600 600 360000 1566.67 1566.67
2520 6350400 2200 2200 4840000 1800.00 1800.00
980 960400 700 700 490000 1466.67 1466.67
400 160000 400 400 160000 866.67 866.67
380 144400 300 300 90000 366.67 366.67
1130 1276900 -1150 1150 1322500 -1000.00 1000.00
340 115600 -100 100 10000 -266.67 266.67
150 22500 50 50 2500 -266.67 266.67
4360 19009600 4400 4400 19360000 4533.33 4533.33
3250 10562500 2350 2350 5522500 3033.33 3033.33
470 220900 450 450 202500 1966.67 1966.67
20 400 -100 100 10000 0.00 0.00
290 84100 350 350 122500 433.33 433.33
950 902500 850 850 722500 833.33 833.33
1620 2624400 1500 1500 2250000 1766.67 1766.67
960 921600 -1200 1200 1440000 -800.00 800.00
60 3600.0000000009 300 300 90000 400.00 400.00
840 705600 600 600 360000 200.00 200.00
racy for 3 time periods MA Forecast Accuracy for 5 time periods MA Forecast Accuracy for WMA

Error^2 (Dᵼ - Fᵼ)^2 Error (Dᵼ - Fᵼ) |Dᵼ - Fᵼ | Error^2 (Dᵼ - Fᵼ)^2 Error (Dᵼ - Fᵼ) |Dᵼ - Fᵼ | Error^2 (Dᵼ - Fᵼ)^2

8027777.78 2850.00 2850.00 8122500.00

3484444.44 2324.00 2324.00 5400976.00
751111.11 -1800.00 1800.00 3240000.00 -400.00 400.00 160000.00
8410000.00 -2600.00 2600.00 6760000.00 -3194.00 3194.00 10201636.00
694444.44 50.00 50.00 2500.00 -1411.00 1411.00 1990921.00
7471111.11 3150.00 3150.00 9922500.00 2597.00 2597.00 6744409.00
2250000.00 750.00 750.00 562500.00 2091.00 2091.00 4372281.00
19360000.00 3600.00 3600.00 12960000.00 4752.00 4752.00 22581504.00
160000.00 -50.00 50.00 2500.00 937.00 937.00 877969.00
2454444.44 600.00 600.00 360000.00 1890.00 1890.00 3572100.00
3240000.00 2200.00 2200.00 4840000.00 1728.00 1728.00 2985984.00
2151111.11 700.00 700.00 490000.00 1962.00 1962.00 3849444.00
751111.11 400.00 400.00 160000.00 1100.00 1100.00 1210000.00
134444.44 300.00 300.00 90000.00 432.00 432.00 186624.00
1000000.00 -1150.00 1150.00 1322500.00 -917.00 917.00 840889.00
71111.11 -100.00 100.00 10000.00 -446.00 446.00 198916.00
71111.11 50.00 50.00 2500.00 -385.00 385.00 148225.00
20551111.11 4400.00 4400.00 19360000.00 4584.00 4584.00 21013056.00
9201111.11 2350.00 2350.00 5522500.00 3735.00 3735.00 13950225.00
3867777.78 450.00 450.00 202500.00 2733.00 2733.00 7469289.00
0.00 -100.00 100.00 10000.00 82.00 82.00 6724.00
187777.78 350.00 350.00 122500.00 451.00 451.00 203401.00
694444.44 850.00 850.00 722500.00 865.00 865.00 748225.00
3121111.11 1500.00 1500.00 2250000.00 1948.00 1948.00 3794704.00
640000.00 -1200.00 1200.00 1440000.00 -504.00 504.00 254016.00
160000.00 300.00 300.00 90000.00 306.00 306.00 93636.00
40000.00 600.00 600.00 360000.00 96.00 96.00 9216.00
 Forecast Accuracy for AES Forecast Accuracy for LTL

Error (Dᵼ - Fᵼ) |Dᵼ - Fᵼ | Error^2 (Dᵼ - Fᵼ)^2 Error (Dᵼ - Fᵼ) |Dᵼ - Fᵼ | Error^2 (Dᵼ - Fᵼ)^2
746.67 746.67 557511.11
100.00 100.00 10000.00 328.05 328.05 107614.16
61.00 61.00 3721.00 -190.57 190.57 36318.72
2772.70 2772.70 7687865.29 2090.80 2090.80 4371463.87
1688.89 1688.89 2852349.43 1572.18 1572.18 2471762.24
-2577.78 2577.78 6644934.26 -746.44 746.44 557167.87
-3342.44 3342.44 11171931.22 -2965.06 2965.06 8791565.81
-26.71 26.71 713.46 -2583.68 2583.68 6675392.84
3790.30 3790.30 14366392.96 -402.30 402.30 161844.37
1180.21 1180.21 1392899.76 -1520.92 1520.92 2313196.25
2890.15 2890.15 8352956.73 1860.46 1860.46 3461310.56
92.10 92.10 8483.10 -658.16 658.16 433175.80
-885.53 885.53 784158.73 423.22 423.22 179113.81
2036.13 2036.13 4145828.79 1304.60 1304.60 1701975.16
179.29 179.29 32145.47 785.98 785.98 617759.86
-454.50 454.50 206566.51 667.36 667.36 445364.46
-254.15 254.15 64590.76 248.74 248.74 61869.41
-1666.90 1666.90 2778565.56 -1469.89 1469.89 2160562.08
-628.83 628.83 395429.80 -1488.51 1488.51 2215649.36
154.82 154.82 23968.47 -2207.13 2207.13 4871407.11
4276.37 4276.37 18287359.84 1774.25 1774.25 3147973.26
2828.46 2828.46 8000189.33 1355.63 1355.63 1837738.62
-779.08 779.08 606961.88 1237.01 1237.01 1530197.44
-951.35 951.35 905075.02 418.39 418.39 175050.87
-418.95 418.95 175517.44 399.77 399.77 159816.14
471.74 471.74 222535.22 481.15 481.15 231504.77
1126.22 1126.22 1268361.29 1162.53 1162.53 1351473.06
-1539.65 1539.65 2370519.57 -1156.09 1156.09 1336548.61
-555.75 555.75 308862.97 -474.71 474.71 225352.09
762.97 762.97 582126.13 -993.33 993.33 986711.11
 PLANNE
4-6 a.m 6-8 a.m 8-10 a.m
Arrival Rate = 2405.70 2700.07 2824.13
Service Rate = 310.35 310.35 310.35
c= 6 6 6
cư = 1862.1 1862.1 1862.1
P0 = -0.00137 -0.00136 -0.00136
Pw = 1.412 1.8182303 2.068838
Average number in the system (L) = 1.50 2.84 3.03
Average number in the queue (Lq) = -6.250 -5.859 -6.073
Average time in the system (W) = 0.037 0.063 0.064
Average time in the queue (Wq) = -0.156 -0.130 -0.129

Comment on Planned System:

With the original plan of 6 security checkpoints from 4am

Arrival Rate for the majority of the day. This means the syte
from 6pm onward

RECOMMEN
4-6 a.m 6-8 a.m 8-10 a.m
Arrival Rate = 2405.70 2700.07 2824.13
Service Rate = 310.35 310.35 310.35
c= 8 9 10
cư = 2482.8 2793.15 3103.5
P0 = 0.00009 0.00004 0.00008
Pw = 0.970 0.9677511 0.917416
Average number in the system (L) = 38.01 36.77 18.37
Average number in the queue (Lq) = 30.263 28.073 9.274
Average time in the system (W) = 0.948 0.817 0.390
Average time in the queue (Wq) = 0.755 0.624 0.197

Comment on Planned System:

Based on the forecasted arrival rates, setting the numb

accommodate the passangers where cư > Arrival Rate will
passengers.
 PLANNED SYSTEM
10-Noon Noon-2 p.m 2-4 p.m 4-6 p.m 6-8 p.m 8-10 p.m
1585.99 1963.03 2074.92 1819.51 841.64 257.84
310.35 310.35 310.35 310.35 310.35 310.35
6 6 6 6 3 2
1862.1 1862.1 1862.1 1862.1 931.05 620.7
0.00522 -0.00064 -0.00104 0.00040 0.02636 1.06894
0.870868 1.05730582 1.129038 0.977638474 0.9123863706 0.6310779139
10.11 -14.24 -4.32 47.63 11.30 1.28
5.002 -20.565 -11.008 41.764 8.589 0.448
0.383 -0.435 -0.125 1.571 0.806 0.298
0.189 -0.629 -0.318 1.377 0.612 0.104

checkpoints from 4am to 6pm, one will find consistenly that cư >
ay. This means the sytem will only be able to handle the arrival rate
from 6pm onwards.

RECOMMENDED SYSTEM
10-Noon Noon-2 p.m 2-4 p.m 4-6 p.m 6-8 p.m 8-10 p.m
1585.99 1963.03 2074.92 1819.51 841.64 257.84
310.35 310.35 310.35 310.35 310.35 310.35
6 7 7 7 3 1
1862.1 2172.45 2172.45 2172.45 931.05 310.35
0.00522 0.00109 0.00036 0.00296 0.02636 0.17417
0.870868 0.91207578 0.957035 0.8602427499 0.9123863706 0.8552997201
10.11 14.87 27.05 10.30 11.30 5.03
5.002 8.549 20.361 4.435 8.589 4.200
0.383 0.455 0.782 0.340 0.806 1.171
0.189 0.261 0.589 0.146 0.612 0.977

rates, setting the number of checkpoints at the right number to

re cư > Arrival Rate will ensure the sysetem can handle the influx of
passengers.
 n 4-6 a.m 6-8 a.m 8-10 a.m 10-Noon Noon-2 p. 2-4 p.m
passengers per hour 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
passengers per hour 1 7.75157 8.700088 9.099822 5.110322 6.325199 6.685743
checkpoints 2 30.0434 37.84577 41.40338 13.0577 20.00407 22.34958
3 77.6279 109.7538 125.5878 22.24301 42.17658 49.80786
4 150.435 238.717 285.7066 28.41723 66.69382 83.25063
5 233.221 415.3718 519.9759 29.04424 84.37033 111.3185
passengers 6 301.305 602.2952 788.6146 24.73757 88.94319 124.0411
passengers 7
minutes 8
minutes 9

10

n 4-6 a.m 6-8 a.m 8-10 a.m 10-Noon Noon-2 p. 2-4 p.m
passengers per hour 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
passengers per hour 1 7.75157 8.700088 9.099822 5.110322 6.325199 6.685743
checkpoints 2 30.0434 37.84577 41.40338 13.0577 20.00407 22.34958
3 77.6279 109.7538 125.5878 22.24301 42.17658 49.80786
4 150.435 238.717 285.7066 28.41723 66.69382 83.25063
5 233.221 415.3718 519.9759 29.04424 84.37033 111.3185
passengers 6 301.305 602.2952 788.6146 24.73757 88.94319 124.0411
passengers 7 333.655 748.5744 1025.179 18.05957 80.36906 118.4724
minutes 8 323.294 814.0829 1166.118 11.53627 63.54379 99.00954
minutes 9 278.448 786.9548 1179.052 6.550453 44.65857 73.55026
10 215.841 684.6576 1072.916 3.347492 28.24743 49.17382
4-6 p.m 6-8 p.m 8-10 p.m
1 1 1
5.862762 2.711919 0.830819
17.18599 3.677253 0.34513
33.58579 3.324138
49.22637
57.7205
56.40026

4-6 p.m 6-8 p.m 8-10 p.m

1 1 1
5.862762 2.711919 0.830819
17.18599 3.677253 0.34513
33.58579 3.324138 0.09558
49.22637 2.253699 0.019852
57.7205 1.22237 0.003299
56.40026 0.552495 0.000457
47.23733 0.214046 5.42E-05
34.61765 0.072559 5.63E-06
22.55056
13.22086