Demand forecasting

• Objectives

• Minimum requirements

• Tools

• Gaps

• Recommendations
 Demand forecasting
Objectives
•Global level:
–Advocacy for inclusion of children in treatment initiatives, including
setting targets for children
–Advocacy for price reduction on pediatric ARV formulations for both
high and low prevalence countries
–Market development by the industry

•National/Provincial/District level
–Advocacy with national/provincial/district leadership for inclusion of
children in treatment plans
–Planning purposes
 Demand forecasting
Minimum information requirements
•Pediatric treatment goals/targets:
–Estimated number of CLWHA needing RX
–Country capacity to treat
–Programming approach

• Recommended drug regimens

•Profile of children to be treated

 Demand forecasting
Minimum information requirements
•The number of CLWHA in need of RX:
–Current estimates of number of CLWHA
–Projected annual birth and death rates
–HIV prevalence in ANC settings
–MTCT rates
–Breastfeeding practices
–HIV-related morbidity and mortality rates
–CD4%, TLC (Risk of under-estimation)
–Existing care practices: CTX, nutrition etc…
 Demand forecasting
Minimum information requirements
•Programming approach:
–entry points: PMTCT, pediatric wards, OPD, nutrition programs etc…
–Implementation plan: where to start, expansion plan etc…
–Expected uptake

•Capacity to treat at all levels:

–Human resources
–Financial resources and price of drugs (generics versus brand names)
–Systems and infrastructure, including laboratory capacity
 Demand forecasting
Minimum information requirements
• The recommended drug regimens:
–National guidelines:
•First line
•Second line
•Change in case of toxicity, TB etc…
–Generics versus brand names
•Patients’ profile:
–Age and weight groups
–% on first and second lines,
–toxicity rate,
–TB co-infection rate etc…
 Demand forecasting
Special considerations for procurement of pediatric
formulations
• Lead time
•Storage and distribution capacity
•Generics versus brand names
•Number of manufacturers to deal with
•Buffer stock
 Tools
• Age-specific quantification of disease burden tool

• ART capacity assessment tool

• Drug quantification tool (e.g. Clinton Model)

• MIS tool to monitor program uptake, drug

consumption and treatment outcomes,