Introduction to
Probabilistic analysis
HOMEWORK #1
PAUL MONTERO GUEVARA
n= 180
MEDIA = 7,34
DESVIACIÓN TIPICA = 0,40
PROMEDIO f(x)
8,61 0,006501439
8,52 0,012906298
8,49 0,016040499
8,45 0,021248859
8,32 0,049483214
8,26 0,070558193
8,26 0,070558193
8,16 0,121287882
8,12 0,148041783
8,12 0,148041783
8,12 0,148041783
8,1 0,16294904
8,03 0,223565268 Gráfico 1. Gráfica de distribución normal
8,03 0,223565268
8,03 0,223565268
Tabla 1. Función densidad
probabilística de cada promedio
2. You are asked to calculate the probability that the stress in a flat bar exceed the Yield
point. The bar is 5 mm in thickness, and a 415 N-m bending moment is acting on it. Height
of the bar h, is a random variable, with Normal distribution: h: 5 cm, and, H: 0.1 cm.
i. Using the height mean value, calculate max. Normal stress on the section, and the safety
factor (use a Yield stress of 235 N/mm2).
media= 50 mm
varianza= 1 mm −𝑀𝑧 ∗ 𝑌
t= 5 mm σ𝑥 (𝑥, 𝑦) = ; 𝑁/𝑚𝑚2
𝐼
MF= 415000 mm
Esfuerzo Normal= 199,2 N/mm2
Yield point= 235 N/mm2
F.S= 1,18
Tabla 3. Datos iniciales y cálculo de Esfuerzo
normal
iii. Calculate the probability that the max. Normal stress in the section excedes yielding,
and comment this result compared with that from i.
Probabilidad σ (N/mm^2)
Z 3,70619067 Teorico Experimental Error
1- P(U<u) 0,00041515 199,535 199,200 0,167999776
En este caso la probabilidad es prácticamente cero, no fallaría, tal como lo indican las sociedades
de clasificación.
3. You are asked to analyze the sea surface elevation at sea state 5, using Bretschneider
formulation to represent it. Look for the characteristics of the analyzed sea state in the
bibliography, and include a copy of the table.
i. Plot the density, and estimate the wave length for máximum energy (find in the
literature the relation between frequency and wave length).
Area del
ESTADO DE MAR 6 w, 1/seg S+ F.S Prod intervalo
2PI/Wm 9,8 seg (m2)
0,237 8,36E-27 1 8,36E-27
H1/3 3,749 m 0,327 1,88E-06 4 7,54E-06 0,00163
0,417 5,45E-02 1 5,45E-02
Wp 0,64114136 0,507 9,06E-01 4 3,62E+00 0,16604
Tabla 5. Datos iniciales tomados de la tabla 6 0,597 1,86E+00 1 1,86E+00
0,687 1,88E+00 4 7,52E+00 0,32518
0,777 1,47E+00 1 1,47E+00
0,867 1,04E+00 4 4,17E+00 0,19070
0,957 7,19E-01 1 7,19E-01
1,047 4,95E-01 4 1,98E+00 0,09126
1,137 3,44E-01 1 3,44E-01
1,227 2,43E-01 4 9,72E-01 0,04474
1,317 1,75E-01 1 1,75E-01
1,407 1,28E-01 4 5,10E-01 0,02338
1,497 9,47E-02 1 9,47E-02
1,587 7,13E-02 4 2,85E-01 0,01303
1,677 5,45E-02 1 5,45E-02
1,767 4,22E-02 4 1,69E-01 0,00768
1,857 3,30E-02 1 3,30E-02
1,947 2,61E-02 4 1,05E-01 0,00475
2,037 2,09E-02 1 2,09E-02
2,127 1,69E-02 4 6,75E-02 0,00306
2,217 1,37E-02 1 1,37E-02
2,307 1,13E-02 4 4,51E-02 0,00204
2,397 9,32E-03 1 9,32E-03
Gráfico 2. Densidad espectral, estado de mar 6. SUMATORIA= 0,87351
λ (m)= 130,46
2∗𝜋
𝜆= ∗ 𝑔 = 130.46 𝑚 Tabla 6. Cálculo de áreas
𝑤𝑛
La longitud de ola obtenido tiene relación con el estado de mar analizado.
m2 Rango n Rayleigh
0,25 0,00 0,5 277 0,27614305 65,7220459
0,75 0,50 1 57 0,62224281 148,093788
1,25 1,00 1,5 44 0,58508324 139,249811
1,75 1,50 2 17 0,34710369 82,6106777
2,25 2,00 2,5 17 0,14204362 33,8063825
2,75 2,50 3 21 0,04150443 9,87805491
3,25 3,00 3,5 38 0,0088079 2,09627943
3,75 3,50 4 5 0,00137073 0,32623358
N= 476
4. Estimate the probability that the design wave bending moment recommended by a ship
classification society be exceeded. Use the tanker of the example worked in class, and
which is presented in the appendix of the class-notes. Follow the following process:
i. Select a ship classification society, specifying its name, place and foundation year,
rewrite the rule with the information,
ii. Using the rules, calculate bending moment in waves (Hogging) in ballast and load
conditions, and,
ESTADO DE MAR 7:
CARGADA
LASTRE mo (µ) FS Produc. 11 mo (µ) FS Produc.
90 0 1 0 90 0 1 0
105 36842,69 4 147370,76 105 9396,569 4 37586,276
120 244048 2 488096 120 145170,8 2 290341,6
135 709248,6 4 2836994,4 135 623035,7 4 2492142,8
150 1947641 2 3895282 150 2149647 2 4299294
165 1770778 4 7083112 165 1923330 4 7693320
180 1947641 1 1947641 180 2149647 1 2149647
Suma 2862077,5 Suma 2960485,37
Suma 2945697,4
−𝑚𝑓2
𝑃[𝑚𝑓 > 𝑚𝑓] = 𝐸𝑥𝑝 2𝑚𝑜
rayligh
P(Mwo>Mwo) P, DBV
LASTRE 1 2,02E-11 1,00E-08
CARGADA 4 4,07E-11 1,00E-08
CARGADA 11 4,58E-11 1,00E-08
Horas de trabajo:
Tema Horas
1 1
2 2
3 5
4 2