JSW Steel
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
39,435 11,844
CMP: INR288 TP: INR332(+15%) Buy
Bloomberg JSTL IN
Equity Shares (m) 2,417
Strong volumes, lower CoP drive outperformance
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 695.3 / 10 Strong project pipeline provides comfort; Maintain Buy
52-Week Range (INR) 427 / 257 Consol. EBITDA of INR44.4b (-1% QoQ) in 4QFY19 was 10% ahead of our
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -3/-23/-22 estimate, led by strong volumes and lower cost of production, partly offset by
12M Avg Val (INR M) 2025
reduced realizations. This, along with other income (+43% QoQ), led to a 22%
Free float (%) 57.3
beat in consol. PAT (INR15.2b; -6% QoQ).
Standalone volumes increased 17% QoQ to 4.29mt, led by exports (+1.6x
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
QoQ). Realizations were down 8% QoQ due to lower steel prices and a
Y/E Mar 2019 2020E 2021E
higher exports mix.
Net Sales 847.6 818.2 950.3
Spreads (realization – RM cost) at the standalone level were down by
EBITDA 189.5 164.1 199.6
PAT 76.4 52.6 71.8 ~INR3,843/t QoQ owing to lower realizations, partly offset by reduced
EPS (INR) 31.8 21.9 29.9 production costs. Standalone EBITDA was down 2% QoQ at INR43.4b (10%
Gr. (%) 32.4 -31.2 36.6 beat).
BV/Sh (INR) 145.0 161.1 186.1 EBITDA of subsidiaries was up 57% QoQ to INR990m (12% beat), led by a
RoE (%) 24.4 14.3 17.2 better US plate mill performance and lower losses for Aferpi, partly offset by
RoCE (%) 11.1 7.7 8.7 higher losses at Acero.
P/E (x) 9.0 13.1 9.6 For FY19, consol. EBITDA was up 29% YoY to INR189.5b, while PAT rose 32%
P/BV (x) 2.0 1.8 1.5
to INR76.4b. Net debt (incl. acceptances) stood at INR564b (+INR82b YoY).
Operations for the recently acquired international businesses are expected
to turn around, led by gradual liquidation of high-cost inventory at Acero
Estimate change and ramp-up of operations at Aferpi. On the domestic front, (1) an
TP change improving product mix, (2) lower thermal coal prices and (3) higher captive
Rating change iron ore production should restrict costs, supporting margins. This apart,
JSTL’s ongoing 5mtpa Dolvi expansion remains on track, improving growth
visibility.
We maintain our Buy rating on JSTL with a target price of INR332 (earlier:
336). Our TP is based on 7x EV/EBITDA and book value for CWIP.
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) – INR m
Y/E March FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 vs Est
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 4QE (%)
Net Sales 148,285 169,475 178,610 204,500 205,190 215,520 203,180 223,680 700,870 847,570 212,206 5
Change (YoY %) 26.7 28.1 27.5 22.8 38.4 27.2 13.8 9.4 26.0 20.9 3.8
EBITDA 27,465 31,655 38,510 49,230 51,050 49,060 45,010 44,400 146,860 189,520 40,323 10
Change (YoY %) -16.0 7.0 34.3 55.6 85.9 55.0 16.9 -9.8 19.8 29.0 -18.1
EBITDA (INR per ton) 8,102 7,994 9,556 11,666 13,329 12,389 12,231 10,350 9,402 12,025 9,835 5
EBITDA (USD per ton) 121 126 150 181 199 177 170 147 146 172 137 8
Interest 9,450 9,500 9,230 8,830 8,870 9,630 10,210 10,460 37,010 39,170 10,070 4
Depreciation 8,190 8,510 8,520 8,650 9,050 9,740 10,780 10,840 33,870 40,410 10,795 0
Other Income 410 390 420 450 580 560 370 530 1,670 2,040 322 65
PBT (before EO Item) 10,235 14,035 21,180 32,200 33,710 30,250 24,390 23,630 77,650 111,980 19,780 19
EO Items -1,295 -1,295 -2,640 10,960 5,730
PBT (after EO Item) 8,940 12,740 18,540 43,160 33,710 30,250 24,390 23,630 83,380 111,980 19,780 19
Total Tax 2,840 4,450 940 14,440 10,530 9,360 8,200 8,350 22,670 36,440 7,795
% Tax 31.8 34.9 5.1 33.5 31.2 30.9 33.6 35.3 27.2 32.5 39.4
Reported PAT 6,100 8,290 17,600 28,720 23,180 20,890 16,190 15,280 60,710 75,540 11,984 28
MI (Profit)/Loss 30 -210 1,170 270 390 210 280 990 1,150 510
Share of P/(L) of Ass. 140 70 140 70 210 -20 -160 -330 420 -300 25
Adjusted PAT 7,183 9,333 19,452 21,980 23,660 21,260 16,240 15,230 57,948 76,390 12,519 22
Change (YoY %) -35.2 28.5 166.5 116.7 229.4 127.8 -16.5 -30.7 61.9 31.8 -53.1
20,000
15,000
10,000
11,081
12,590
12,126
12,060
10,119
6,783
8,230
6,457
5,527
6,674
6,859
7,137
7,478
8,052
8,545
8,534
6,988
5,469
4,838
4,986
3,443
5,404
9,276
7,077
7,717
7,586
6,631
7,797
9,000
5,000
0
4Q 12
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 14
3Q 14
4Q 14
1Q 15
2Q 15
3Q 15
4Q 15
1Q 16
2Q 16
3Q 16
4Q 16
1Q 17
2Q 17
3Q 17
4Q 17
1Q 18
2Q 18
3Q 18
4Q 18
1Q 19
2Q 19
3Q 19
4Q 19
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JSW Steel
Exhibit 3: HRC spreads (HRC - 1.6x iron ore - 0.7x coking coal) – USD/t
EU China
450
395
340
285
230
175
120
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
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JSW Steel
Auction of iron ore mines: JSTL expects the process of auctioning of merchant
iron ore mines (which are due to expire in Mar'20) to begin in Jul'19. The
company highlighted that Karnataka is well prepared and is likely to be the first
one to begin with the auction process. It expects Orissa to be ready for the same
by Jul-Aug ’19.
Guidance:
FY20 production of 16.95mt and sales of 16mt - representing 1.5% YoY
growth for both.
Domestic demand growth of 6.5-7% in FY20.
Coking coal costs to remain stable at 4Q levels in 1QFY20.
Capex of INR157b in FY20.
FY20 iron ore production from captive mines at 5mt (v/s 1.8mt in FY19).
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JSW Steel
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JSW Steel
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JSW Steel
Corporate profile
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
Company description
JSW Steel has 18mtpa steel capacity in India and a
small plate and pipe mill the US. It recently acquired
3mt hot strip mill in US and 1.3mt rolling mill in
Italy. JSW Steel is also expanding capacity in India
by 6.7mtpa to 25mtpa by end of FY20. JSW Steel is
most efficient steel producer in India and has strong
project execution skills.
Source: MOFSL/Bloomberg
Source: Capitaline
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JSW Steel
NOTES
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JSW Steel
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JSW Steel
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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
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Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
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