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STAT130

Unit 8: Correlation and

Regression Analysis

Chapter 13

Simple Linear Regression

Analysis

Introduction

In addition to hypothesis testing and confidence

intervals, inferential statistics involves

determining whether a relationship between two

or more quantitative variables exists.

Most commonly used technique for investigating

the relationship between two or more variables;

Correlation is a statistical method used to

determine whether a relationship between

variables exists.

Regression is a statistical method used to

describe the nature of the relationship between

variables—that is, positive or negative, linear or

nonlinear. 3

Relationships

Variables

Dependent Variable: measures an outcome of a

study and is sometimes called the response

variable.

Independent Variable: explains or causes changes

in the response variable and is sometimes called

the explanatory or predictor variable.

A scatter plot shows the relationship between two

variables.

Always plot the independent variable on the

horizontal axis, and the dependent variable as

the vertical axis.

4

Examining Relationships

In any graph of data, look for the overall pattern

and for striking deviations from that pattern.

You can describe the overall pattern by the:

Form: Describe the type of trend between X and Y

(linear, quadratic, exponential).

Direction: describes the direction of the trend

upward (positive) or downward (negative).

Strength: Measures the amount of scatter around

the general trend.

An important kind of deviation is an outlier, an

individual that falls outside the overall pattern of

the relationship.

5

Examples of Scatter Plots

6

Correlation Coefficient

The coefficient of correlation, denoted in the

population and r in the sample, is used to

measure the strength of the linear association

between two quantitative variables.

The sample coefficient of correlation is

x x y i y

n

i 1 i SS xy

r

i 1 x i i 1 i

2 2

x y SS xx SS yy

n n

y

Correlation in MegaStat:

MegaStat Correlation / Regression

Correlation Matrix

7

Properties of r

-1 ≤ r ≤ 1 (Check this applet)

r < 0 negative linear association

r > 0 positive linear association

r = 1 perfect linear relationship

r is independent of units.

Empirical rule to interpret r:

|r| close to 1 strong linear association

|r| close to 0.5 moderate linear association

|r| close to 0 weak or no linear association

8

Correlation: Examples

9

Testing the significance of

We can test to see if the correlation is significant

using the hypotheses

H 0: = 0

Ha: ≠ 0

r n2

The statistic is t

1 r 2

which follows a t-distribution with n-2 degrees

of freedom.

MegaStat produces 95% and 99% critical limits

for . If r falls outside these limits then H0 is

rejected at the corresponding significance level.

10

Example

A car dealer wants to find whether there is a linear

relationship between the odometer reading and

the selling price of used cars. A random sample of

100 cars is selected, and the data recorded.

There is a strong negative linear relationship.

6500

6000

5500

Price

5000

4500

4000

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Odometer

11

Example

Compute and interpret the coefficient of

correlation between odometer and price.

r = -0.806 negative strong correlation (linear

relationship).

r falls outside the 99% critical limits (0.256) which

means that there is significant linear relationship

between the odometer reading the price of the car

(≠0).

12

Simple Linear Regression

Regression is used to predict the value of one

variable (the dependent variable - y) based on

the value of other variables (independent

variables x1, x2,…xk).

The objective of regression analysis is to build a

regression model that can be used to describe,

predict and control the dependent variable on

the basis of the independent variable

Examples:

Relationship between odometer reading (X) and a

used car’s selling price (Y).

Relationship between years of experience (X) and

the salary of an accountant (Y).

13

The Model

The simple linear regression model

y= b0 + b1x+

y = dependent variable

x = independent variable

y|x = b0 + b1x = the mean value of y given x

b0 = y-intercept

b1 = slope of the line

= error variable

β0 and β1 are called regression parameters

b0 is the estimate of β0 and b1 is the estimate of β1

14

The Simple Linear Regression Model

15

Model Assumptions

1) Constant Variance Assumption

At any given value of x, the population of

potential error term values has a variance that

does not depend on the value of x

2) Normality Assumption

At any given value of x, the population of

potential error term values has a normal

distribution

3) Independence Assumption

Any one value of the error term ε is statistically

independent of any other value of ε

16

Estimating the coefficients

The regression equation that estimates the

equation of the first order linear model is:

ŷ = b0 + b1x

The estimates of the coefficients are:

b1

(x x )( y y ) SS

i i

xy

(x x )

2

i

SS xx

b0 y b1x

Regression in MegaStat

MegaStat Correlation / Regression

Regression Analysis

17

Interpretation of Regression Coefficients

The intercept, b0 is the estimated average

value of y when the value of x is zero.

The slope, b1 is the estimated change in the

average value of y as a result of a one-unit

increase in x.

18

Example

A car dealer wants to find the relationship

between the odometer reading and the selling

price of used cars.

Find and plot the regression line.

R2 = 0.650

6000

5500

Price

5000

4500

4000

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Odometer

19

Example

The estimated regression equation is

ŷ = 6533 – 0.0312 x

Interpretation of Regression Coefficients:

The intercept is b0 = 6533

Do not interpret the intercept as the ―Price of

cars that have not been driven‖ – (Why?)

The slope is b1 =-$0.0312

For each additional mile on the odometer, the

price decreases by an average of $0.0312

20

Testing the Significance of the Slope

A regression model is not likely to be useful

unless there is a significant relationship between

x and y.

To test significance, we use the null hypothesis:

H0: β1 = 0 vs. Ha: β1 ≠ 0

The test statistic

b1 s

t= where sb1

sb1 SSxx

which follows a t-distribution with df=n-2.

This test is equivalent to testing whether the

correlation coefficient equals zero.

21

Example: Testing the Slope

Test whether the odometer reading of a car and

its price are linearly related.

Hypotheses:

H0: b1 = 0 vs. Ha: b1 ≠ 0

Test statistic: t=-13.495

P-value≈0

Conclusion: There is overwhelming evidence to

infer that the odometer reading affects the

auction selling price, i.e. reject H0: b1 = 0

22

An F Test for Model

For simple regression, this is another way to test

the null hypothesis H0: β1 = 0

The F test tests the significance of the overall

regression relationship between x and y and is

given in the ANOVA table in regression output.

The test statistic is the square of the test statistic

in the t-test, but the p-value should be the same.

Example:

23

The Simple Coefficient of Determination (r2)

For simple linear regression model:

Total variation= Σ(yi - ȳ)2

Explained variation=Σ(ŷi - ȳ)2

Unexplained variation= Σ(yi - ŷi)2

Σ(yi - ȳ)2 = Σ(ŷi - ȳ)2 + Σ(yi - ŷi)2

The simple coefficient of determination is

Explained variation

r

2

Total variation

24

The Simple Coefficient of Determination (r2)

The simple coefficient of determination (r2) is

the proportion of the total variation in the

dependent variable (Y) that is explained or

accounted for by the variation in the independent

variable (X).

It is the square of the coefficient of correlation (r).

0 r2 1.

r2= 1: Perfect match between the line and the data.

r2= 0: There is no linear relationship between x and y.

It does not give any information on the direction of

the relationship between the variables.

The larger the value of r2, the better the fit is.

25

Example

Find the simple coefficient of determination for

example; what does this statistic tell you about

the model?

From Regression output, r2= 0.65

65% of the variation in the auction selling

price is explained by the variation in odometer

reading. The rest (35%) remains unexplained

by this model.

26

Using the Regression Equation

Before using the regression model, we need

to assess how well it fits the data.

If we are satisfied with how well the model

fits the data, we can use it to make

predictions for y.

Example

Predict the selling price of a three-year-old

Taurus with 40,000 miles on the odometer.

27

Confidence and Prediction Intervals

There are two different intervals for the

response variable:

Confidence interval for the mean response: What

is the mean response, y|x, for a given value, x0,

of the predictor variable?

Prediction interval for individual value of the

response: What would one predict a new

observation, y, to be for a given value, x0, of the

predictor variable?

The point estimate for both inferences is the

value of ŷ for the specified value of x0.

28

Confidence and Prediction Intervals

A (1-)100% confidence interval for mean value

of y when x=x0 is

x 0 x

2

1

yˆ t /2 s

x i x

2

n

A (1- )100% prediction interval for an individual

value of y when x=x0 is

x 0 x

2

1

yˆ t /2 s 1

x i x 2

n

Here s is the standard error and t/2 is based on

(n-2) degrees of freedom.

29

Confidence and Prediction Intervals

A prediction interval is intended to trap a new

observation of the dependent variable given

values of the independent variables. While the

confidence interval is intended to trap the mean

of the dependent variable given values of the

independent variables.

In MegaStat:

In regression window, choose ―Type in predictor

values‖ and enter the predictor values for the

independent variable.

30

Example: Prediction

The car dealer wants to bid on a lot of 250 Ford

Taurus, where each car has been driven for about

40,000 miles.

The dealer needs to estimate the mean price per

car. The 95% confidence interval is ($5252, $5322)

Provide an interval estimate for the bidding price on

a Ford Taurus with 40,000 miles on the odometer.

The dealer would like to predict the price of a single

car. The 95% prediction interval is ($4984, $5590)

31

Exercises

1) The president of a company that

manufactures car seats has been concerned

about the number and cost of machine

breakdowns. The problem is that the

machines are old and becoming quite

unreliable. However, the cost of replacing

them is quite high and the president is not

certain that the cost can be made up in

today’s slow economy. To help make a

decision about replacement, he gathered data

about last month’s costs for repairs and the

ages (in months) of the plant’s 20 welding

machines (worksheet: Repair).

32

Exercises

a) Find the sample regression line.

b) Interpret the coefficients.

c) Determine the coefficient of determination and

discuss what this statistic tells you.

d) Test at 5% significance level whether the age of a

machine and its repair cost are linearly related.

e) Find a 95% prediction interval for the monthly

repair cost of a welding machine that is 120

months old.

f) Find a 95% confidence interval for the average

monthly repair cost of welding machines that are

120 months old.

33

Exercises

2) Ten cars between 1 and 6 years old were

randomly selected from the classified ads. The

data were obtained (Worksheet: Cars), where x

denotes age, in years, and y denotes price, in

hundreds of dollars.

a) Develop a scatter plot and describe the

relationship between the price and the age of

the cars.

b) Compute the correlation coefficient.

c) Determine the regression equation for the data.

d) Interpret carefully the regression coefficients.

34

Exercises

e) Compute and interpret the coefficient of

determination, r2.

f) Does the age of the car seem a good predictor for

its price? Test the appropriate hypothesis at

=0.05.

g) Obtain a point prediction for the mean price of all

4-year-old cars.

h) Obtain a 95% confidence interval for the mean

price of all 4-year old cars.

i) Obtain a point prediction for the mean price of all

12-year-old cars. Comment on the accuracy of

this prediction.

35

Exercises

3) A fire insurance company wants to relate the

amount of fire damage in major residential fires

to the distance between the burning house and

the nearest fire station. The study is to be

conducted in a large suburb of a major city; a

sample of 15 recent fires in the suburb is

selected. The amount of damage (in $1,000) and

the distance (in miles) between the fire and the

nearest fire station are recorded for each fire.

a) Develop a scatter plot and describe the relationship

between the distance and the damage.

b) Find and interpret the correlation coefficient.

36

Exercises

c) Determine the regression equation for the data.

d) Interpret carefully the regression coefficients.

e) Compute and interpret R2.

f) Does the distance seem a good predictor for the

damage in the burning house? Test the

appropriate hypothesis at =0.05.

g) Obtain a point estimate for the mean damage of

all houses on fire that are 4 miles away from the

nearest fire station.

h) Obtain a 90% prediction interval for the damage

of a house on fire that is 4 miles away from the

nearest fire station.

37

Chapter 14

Multiple Regression

The Multiple Regression Model

Simple linear regression used one independent

variable to explain the dependent variable

Some relationships are too complex to be

described using a single independent variable

Multiple regression uses two or more independent

variables to describe the dependent variable

This allows multiple regression models to handle

more complex situations

There is no limit to the number of independent

variables a model can use

Multiple regression has only one dependent

variable (y)

39

The Multiple Regression Model

The multiple linear regression model relating y to

x1, x2,…, xk is

y = β0 + β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk +

β0, β1, β2,… βk are unknown parameters

is an error term

ŷ = b0 + b1x1 + b2x2 + … + bkxk

b0, b1, b2,…, bk are the least squares point

estimates of the parameters β0, β1, β2,…, βk

40

Multiple Regression

Coefficients interpretation:

bi represents an estimate of the change in y

corresponding to a one-unit increase in xi when all

other independent variables are held constant.

Coefficient of Multiple Determination R2

The multiple coefficient of determination, R2, is the

proportion of the total variation in the n observed

values of the dependent variable that is explained

by the multiple regression model.

Confidence and Prediction Intervals

Similar to simple linear regression.

41

The Overall F Test (Validity of the model)

This F test is used to find out if all of the

regression coefficients, except the intercept, are

equal to zero.

To test

H0: β1= β2 = …= βk = 0

Ha: At least one of β1, β2,…, βk ≠ 0

The test statistic is

(Explained variation)/k

F

(Unexplained variation)/[n-(k 1)]

which follows an F distribution with k and n-k-1

degrees of freedom.

42

Testing the Significance of an Independent

Variable

To test significance of an independent variable xj,

we test H0: βj = 0 vs. Ha:βj ≠ 0

Test Statistic

t=bj /sbj

which follows t distribution with df=n-k-1.

Note on Significance testing:

Whether the independent variable xj is significantly

related to y in a particular regression model is

dependent on what other independent variables are

included in the model.

That is, changing independent variables can cause a

significant variable to become insignificant or cause an

insignificant variable to become significant

43

Example

A researcher wanted to find the effect of driving

experience and the number of driving violations on

auto insurance premiums. A random sample of 12

drivers insured with the same company and having

similar auto insurance policies was selected from a

large city. The data includes the monthly auto

insurance premiums (in $) paid by these drivers,

their driving experiences (in years), and the

numbers of driving violations committed by them

during the past three years.

Find the regression equation of monthly premiums

paid by drivers on the driving experiences and the

numbers of driving violations.

44

Example

From the scatter plots we

have:

Moderate negative linear

relationship between the

monthly premium and the

driving experience.

strong positive linear

relationship between the

monthly premium and the

number of driving

violations.

45

Example: Estimated Model

The proposed regression model is

y = b0+ b1 x1+ b2 x2 +

y = the monthly auto insurance premium in dollars

x1 = the driving experience in years of a driver

x2 = the number of driving violations committed by

a driver during the past three years

The estimated regression model is

ŷ=110.28 – 2.75 x1 + 16.11 x2

46

Example: Coefficients Interpretation

b0 = $110.28

a driver with no driving experience and no driving violations

committed in the past three years is expected to pay an auto

insurance premium of $110.28 per month.

That may not be true because none of the drivers in our

sample has both zero experience and zero driving violations.

b1 = -$2.75

A driver with one extra year of experience but the same

number of driving violations is expected to pay $2.75 less per

month for the auto insurance premium.

b2 = $16.11

A driver with one extra driving violation during the past three

years but with the same years of driving experience is

expected to pay $16.11 more per month for the auto

insurance premium.

47

Example: R2

Find and interpret the coefficient of

determination.

The value of R2= 0.931 tells us that the two

independent variables; years of driving experiences

and the numbers of driving violations, explain

93.1% of the variation in the auto insurance

premiums.

48

Example: Overall F-test

At 5% level, can you conclude that the number of

years of driving experience and number of driving

violations are useful useful in the regression

model?

H0: β1= β2 = 0 vs. Ha: At least one of β1, β2 ≠ 0

F=60.88 and P-value=0.00000589

Reject H0. The number of years of driving

experience and number of driving violations should

be retained in the model.

49

Example: Testing significance

At 5% level, can you conclude that the number of

years of driving experience is useful in the

regression model?

H0: β1= 0 vs. Ha: β1 ≠ 0

t=-2.812

P-value=0.0203

Reject H0. The number of years of driving

experience is a useful predictor and should be

retained in the model.

50

Example: Prediction

What is the predicted auto insurance premium paid

per month by a driver with 7 years of driving

experience and 3 driving violations committed in

the past three years?

ŷ=$139.36

Find a 99% prediction interval for the auto

insurance premium paid per month by a driver with

7 years of driving experience and 3 driving

violations committed in the past three years.

($97.73, $181)

51

Exercises

1) In an effort to explain to customers why

their electricity bills have been so high

lately, and how, specifically, they could save

money by reducing the thermostat settings

on both space heaters and water heaters, an

electric utility company has collected total

kilowatt consumption figures last year’s

winter months as well as thermostat settings

on space and water heaters for 100 homes.

The data stored in columns 1 (consumption),

2 (space heater thermostat setting) and 3

(water heater thermostat setting).

52

Exercises

a) Determine the regression equation.

b) Determine the coefficient of determination and

comment about what it tells you.

c) Test the validity of the model and describe what this

test tells you.

d) Predict with 95% confidence the electricity

consumption of a house whose space heater

thermostat is set at 70 and whose water heater

thermostat is set at 130.

e) Estimate with 95% confidence the average electricity

consumption for houses whose space heater

thermostat is set at 70 and whose water heater

thermostat is set at 130.

53

Exercises

2) A real estate expert wanted to find the

relationship between the sale price of houses

and various characteristics of the houses. She

collected data on four variables, recorded in

(realestate worksheet), for 13 houses that were

sold recently. The four variables are

Price= Sale price of a house in thousands of dollars

Lot size= Size of the lot in acres

Living area= Living area in square feet

Age= Age of a house in years

54

Exercises

a) Determine the regression equation.

b) Interpret carefully the regression coefficients.

c) Test the validity of the model at 5% level.

d) Test whether the living area should be dropped from

the model at 5% level.

e) Determine the coefficient of determination and

comment about what it tells you.

f) Predict the sale price of a house that has a lot size of

2.5 acres, a living area of 3000 square feet, and is

14 years old.

g) Find a 99% prediction interval for a house that has a

lot size of 2.2 acres, a living area of 2500 square

feet, and are 7 years old.

55

Exercises

3) A realtor working in a large city wants to

identify the secular trend in the weekly number

of single-family houses sold by her firm. For the

past 15 weeks she has collected data on her

firm’s home sales, as shown in the table.

a) Plot the time series. Is there visual evidence of a

quadratic trend?

b) The realtor hypothesize the model

y=b0+b1t+b2t2+ for the trend of the weekly time

series. Fit the model to the data. How well does

the model describe the trend?

56

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