Canada

Canadians’ Perceptions on the

Economy and Affordability
16th July 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted between June 27th to July 2nd,
2019 among a sample of 2651 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is
intended to represent the voting population of
Canada.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was sponsored by iPolitics and Groupe
Capitales Médias.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials,
respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.9% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
CANADIANS SPLIT ON WHETHER TRUDEAU OR SCHEER IS BEST ABLE TO STEER THE
ECONOMY

16th July 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – Canadians are divided on whether Justin Trudeau or Andrew
Scheer is best able to strengthen the Canadian economy over the next four years.

30.6% of those surveyed said that Scheer was the best person to take the economy forward,
while another 30.5% chose Trudeau.

Those are the findings of a Mainstreet Research/iPolitics/Groupe Capitales Médias poll, which
surveyed 2651 Canadians between June 27th and July 2nd. The survey has a margin of error
of +/- 1.9% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The question of which party leader is best able to take the economy forward is usually a
key indicator of which leader will win the election,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of
Mainstreet Research. “To see these numbers this tight indicates this election could be very
close that despite Trudeau’s lead in our polling.”

The poll shows that Canadians being generally optimistic about the economy and their
personal finances.

“Just under 54% of respondents said that they were optimistic about the economy, while
62.6% said they were optimistic about their finances,” added Maggi. “We also found more
Canadians saying that their financial situation has improved over the last four years than
those who said it had gotten worse.”

However, the poll also found some bad news for the Trudeau government.

76% of Canadians said that the cost of living has become less affordable over the last four
years. Moreover, 61% of respondents said that it’s time for a change in Ottawa.

“These findings paint a nuanced picture of how Canadians see the economy and how it will
play out in the election,” added Maggi. “If voters go to cast their ballots focusing on their
feelings about the economy and their own finances, then Trudeau will benefit.”

“But if voters have the desire for change and how unaffordable they think life has become at
the forefront of their thinking, then it will be Scheer who gets an edge,” he concluded.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the Canadian economy at this
moment in time?

broken out by age and gender

Total 17.5% 36.1% 23.8% 15.5% 7.1%

Male 18.8% 35.1% 21.7% 18.5%

Female 16.2% 37.2% 25.8% 12.6% 8.2%

18-34 17.5% 36.1% 21.5% 17.1% 7.8%

35-49 16.9% 33.4% 25.9% 17.4%

50-64 17.7% 36.1% 25.5% 14.6%

65+ 18.0% 39.6% 21.9% 12.0% 8.4%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Very Pessimistic Not Sure

broken out by region

Total 17.5% 36.1% 23.8% 15.5%

17.7%
BC Total 17.5%
32.3%
36.1%
26.8%
23.8%
16.1% 7.1%
15.5%

12.3%
AB Male 18.8%24.5% 35.1% 25.9% 21.7% 31.7%18.5%

Female 16.2% 37.2% 25.8% 12.6% 8.2%

Prairies 12.9% 31.7% 28.6% 18.5% 8.3%

18-34 17.5% 36.1% 21.5% 17.1% 7.8%

ON 19.8% 35.7% 22.1% 15.4%
35-49 16.9% 33.4% 25.9% 17.4%
QC 17.6% 46.8% 21.1% 7.4%
50-64 17.7% 36.1% 25.5% 14.6%

Atlantic 17.0% 33.0% 28.2% 13.8% 8.0%

65+ 18.0% 39.6% 21.9% 12.0% 8.4%

0 0 10 10 20 20 3030 40
40 50
50 6060 70 70 80 80 90 90
100 100

Very Optimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat
Somewhat Optimistic
Optimistic Somewhat
Somewhat Pessimistic
Pessimistic

Very Pessimistic Not Sure

Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances at this
moment in time?

broken out by age and gender

Total 23.7% 38.9% 21.2% 10.4%

Male 26.6% 39.2% 20.7% 9.5%

Female 20.8% 38.6% 21.8% 11.2% 7.6%

18-34 22.9% 35.3% 22.3% 13.7%

35-49 21.2% 40.7% 23.1% 10.6%

50-64 22.8% 39.8% 21.5% 9.7%

65+ 29.2% 40.4% 17.0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Very Pessimistic Not Sure

broken out by region

Total 23.7% 38.9% 21.2% 10.4%

24.0%
BC Total 17.5%
36.7%
36.1% 23.8%
21.8% 15.5% 13.2%
7.1%

17.4%
AB Male 18.8% 32.0%
35.1% 29.2%
21.7% 18.5% 14.5%

Female 16.2% 37.2% 25.8% 12.6% 8.2%

Prairies 23.3% 35.2% 17.9% 17.8%

18-34 17.5% 36.1% 21.5% 17.1% 7.8%

ON 26.3% 38.6% 19.1% 9.4%
35-49 16.9% 33.4% 25.9% 17.4%
QC 21.8% 45.4% 21.8%
50-64 17.7% 36.1% 25.5% 14.6%

Atlantic 24.9% 37.5% 20.2% 13.1%

65+ 18.0% 39.6% 21.9% 12.0% 8.4%

0 0 10 10 20 20 3030 40
40 50
50 6060 70 70 80 80 90 90
100 100

Very Optimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat
Somewhat Optimistic
Optimistic Somewhat
Somewhat Pessimistic
Pessimistic

Very Pessimistic Not Sure

Very Pessimistic Not Sure
 As you might know, there will be a federal election held later this
year. Thinking about theaupcoming
Time for Change federal election, do you agree or
disagree that is time for a change in federal government?
7.7%
7.7%

15.8%
15.8%

44.9%
44.9%
Time for a Change

15.5%
15.5%

16.1%
16.1%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree Not Sure
Strongly Disagree Not Sure

Would you say that the financial situation of yourself and/or that
of your household has improved or gotten worse compared to four
years ago?
11.8%
16.1%
11.8%
16.1%

15.1%
15.1%

32.4%
32.4%

24.7%
24.7%

Greatly Improved Somewhat Improved Somewhat Gotten Worse Greatly Gotten Worse Not Sure
Greatly Improved Somewhat Improved Somewhat Gotten Worse Greatly Gotten Worse Not Sure
 Would you say that the cost of living has become more or less
affordable compared to four years ago?

6.7% 4.8%
6.7% 4.8%
12.4%
12.4%

33.6%
33.6%

42.4%
42.4%

Greatly Improved Somewhat Improved Somewhat Gotten Worse Greatly Gotten Worse Not Sure
Greatly Improved Somewhat Improved Somewhat Gotten Worse Greatly Gotten Worse Not Sure

Which party leader do you think is best able to strengthen the

Canadian economy over the next four years?

15.7%
15.7%

30.5%
30.5%
3.8%
3.8%

4.2%
4.2%

5.1%
5.1%

2.7%
2.7%

7.3%
7.3%

30.6%
30.6%

Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Yves-Francois Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Someone Else

Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Yves-Francois

Not Sure Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Someone Else
Breakout Tables
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the Canadian economy at this
moment in time?
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 17.5% 18.8% 16.2% 17.5% 16.9% 17.7% 18% 17.7% 12.3% 12.9% 19.8% 17.6% 17%
Somewhat Optimistic 36.1% 35.1% 37.2% 36.1% 33.4% 36.1% 39.6% 32.3% 24.5% 31.7% 35.7% 46.8% 33%
Somewhat Pessimistic 23.8% 21.7% 25.8% 21.5% 25.9% 25.5% 21.9% 26.8% 25.9% 28.6% 22.1% 21.1% 28.2%
Very Pessimistic 15.5% 18.5% 12.6% 17.1% 17.4% 14.6% 12% 16.1% 31.7% 18.5% 15.4% 7.1% 13.8%
Not Sure 7.1% 6% 8.2% 7.8% 6.3% 6.2% 8.4% 7.1% 5.6% 8.3% 7% 7.4% 8%
Unweighted Frequency 2651 1474 1177 443 662 787 759 422 233 175 783 871 167
Weighted Frequency 2651 1313 1338 737 664 730 520 361 300 173 1016 619 182

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances at this

moment in time?
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 23.7% 26.6% 20.8% 22.9% 21.2% 22.8% 29.2% 24% 17.4% 23.3% 26.3% 21.8% 24.9%
Somewhat Optimistic 38.9% 39.2% 38.6% 35.3% 40.7% 39.8% 40.4% 36.7% 32% 35.2% 38.6% 45.4% 37.5%
Somewhat Pessimistic 21.2% 20.7% 21.8% 22.3% 23.1% 21.5% 17% 21.8% 29.2% 17.9% 19.1% 21.8% 20.2%
Very Pessimistic 10.4% 9.5% 11.2% 13.7% 10.6% 9.7% 6.4% 13.2% 14.5% 17.8% 9.4% 5.6% 13.1%
Not Sure 5.8% 4% 7.6% 5.8% 4.4% 6.2% 7% 4.3% 6.9% 5.8% 6.6% 5.4% 4.2%
Unweighted Frequency 2651 1474 1177 443 662 787 759 422 233 175 783 871 167
Weighted Frequency 2651 1313 1338 737 664 730 520 361 300 173 1016 619 182

As you might know, there will be a federal election held later this year.
Thinking about the upcoming federal election, do you agree or disagree
that is time for a change in federal government?
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Strongly Agree 44.9% 53% 36.9% 42.8% 46.5% 45.5% 45% 47.9% 66% 57.6% 39.2% 38.8% 44.8%
Somewhat Agree 16.1% 13.3% 18.8% 18.6% 16.5% 14.9% 13.7% 15.9% 8.1% 12.1% 17.2% 20.5% 12.1%
Somewhat Disagree 15.5% 13.5% 17.4% 16.9% 16.6% 13.2% 15.1% 12.7% 10.5% 11% 15.6% 20.7% 14.6%
Strongly Disagree 15.8% 14.2% 17.5% 13.1% 13.7% 19.4% 17.4% 14.7% 8.7% 12.5% 21.2% 10.5% 21.1%
Not Sure 7.7% 6% 9.4% 8.6% 6.7% 7.1% 8.7% 8.7% 6.7% 6.9% 6.8% 9.4% 7.4%
Unweighted Frequency 2651 1474 1177 443 662 787 759 422 233 175 783 871 167
Weighted Frequency 2651 1313 1338 737 664 730 520 361 300 173 1016 619 182
Would you say that the financial situation of yourself and/or that of your
household has improved or gotten worse compared to four years ago?
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Greatly Improved 16.1% 17.7% 14.5% 26.9% 15% 10.5% 10% 14.3% 10.9% 18.6% 17.5% 16.5% 16.4%
Somewhat Improved 32.4% 31.7% 33.1% 29.4% 30.5% 34.2% 36.4% 29.5% 18.5% 26.1% 33.3% 40.6% 33.6%
Somewhat Gotten Worse 24.7% 23.6% 25.8% 17.8% 24.3% 28.9% 29.2% 27.2% 27.5% 25% 24.2% 24.4% 19.4%
Greatly Gotten Worse 15.1% 17.6% 12.6% 11.4% 19.3% 16.2% 13.3% 16.6% 33% 20.6% 12.7% 6.5% 19.7%
Not Sure 11.8% 9.4% 14.1% 14.5% 10.9% 10.2% 11.1% 12.4% 10.2% 9.7% 12.3% 12.1% 10.9%
Unweighted Frequency 2651 1474 1177 443 662 787 759 422 233 175 783 871 167
Weighted Frequency 2651 1313 1338 737 664 730 520 361 300 173 1016 619 182

Would you say that the cost of living has become more or less affordable
compared to four years ago?
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Greatly Improved 4.8% 5.9% 3.8% 5% 4.5% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% 3.4% 5.7% 5.3% 4.3% 5.1%
Somewhat Improved 12.4% 12.6% 12.2% 11.4% 12.4% 11.8% 14.7% 8.8% 10.3% 11.3% 13.9% 13.2% 13.4%
Somewhat Gotten Worse 42.4% 42.6% 42.2% 40.2% 39.2% 44% 47.4% 38.7% 35.3% 41.9% 42.1% 48.7% 42.1%
Greatly Gotten Worse 33.6% 33.7% 33.6% 34.2% 38.9% 32.8% 27.3% 40.8% 44.3% 33.9% 31.6% 28.1% 32.2%
Not Sure 6.7% 5.2% 8.2% 9.2% 5% 6.5% 5.9% 6.8% 6.7% 7.2% 7.2% 5.7% 7.3%
Unweighted Frequency 2651 1474 1177 443 662 787 759 422 233 175 783 871 167
Weighted Frequency 2651 1313 1338 737 664 730 520 361 300 173 1016 619 182

Which party leader do you think is best able to strengthen the Canadian
economy over the next four years?
Gender Age Region
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Justin Trudeau 30.5% 28.5% 32.6% 29% 27.4% 32.6% 34% 24.4% 16.4% 23.1% 35.8% 32.9% 36%
Andrew Scheer 30.6% 36.8% 24.4% 27.6% 31.9% 31.7% 31.6% 27.8% 50.7% 47% 26.4% 27.2% 22.1%
Jagmeet Singh 7.3% 6.2% 8.4% 12.1% 7.8% 4.9% 3.3% 9.3% 5.5% 6.5% 7.8% 6.2% 7.9%
Yves-Francois Blanchet 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 3.1% 2.3% 3.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.4% 1% 6.2% 3.7%
Elizabeth May 5.1% 4.1% 6.1% 5.6% 6% 3.8% 5.1% 10% 3.4% 3.7% 4.4% 4.2% 6.8%
Maxime Bernier 4.2% 6.4% 2% 5.5% 4.1% 4.1% 2.7% 3.4% 6.9% 3.2% 3.5% 4.8% 4.2%
Someone Else 3.8% 4.4% 3.2% 2.7% 5% 4% 3.4% 4.8% 4.2% 3.6% 4% 2.5% 4.2%
Not Sure 15.7% 10.7% 20.7% 14.4% 15.6% 15.9% 17.6% 18% 10.7% 11.6% 17.1% 16% 15%
Unweighted Frequency 2651 1474 1177 443 662 787 759 422 233 175 783 871 167
Weighted Frequency 2651 1313 1338 737 664 730 520 361 300 173 1016 619 182
Full Questionnaire
Are you optimistic or pessimistic Somewhat Improved
about the Canadian economy at this Somewhat Gotten Worse
moment in time? Greatly Gotten Worse
Very Optimistic Not Sure
Somewhat Optimistic
Somewhat Pessimistic Would you say that the cost of living
Very Pessimistic has become more or less affordable
Not Sure compared to four years ago?
Greatly Improved
Are you optimistic or pessimistic Somewhat Improved
about your personal finances at this Somewhat Gotten Worse
moment in time? Greatly Gotten Worse
Very Optimistic Not Sure
Somewhat Optimistic
Somewhat Pessimistic Which party leader do you think
Very Pessimistic is best able to strengthen the
Not Sure Canadian economy over the next
four years?
As you might know, there will be Justin Trudeau
a federal election held later this Andrew Scheer
year. Thinking about the upcoming Jagmeet Singh
federal election, do you agree or Yves-Francois Blanchet
disagree Elizabeth May
that is time for a change in federal Maxime Bernier
government? Someone Else
Strongly Agree Not Sure
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree What is your gender?
Strongly Disagree Male
Not Sure Female

Would you say that the financial
situation of yourself and/or that
of your household has improved
or gotten worse compared to four
years ago?
Greatly Improved
What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between June 27th,
2019 and July 2nd, 2019, among a sample of 2651 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Canada. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Canada.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics and
Groupe Capitales Médias.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.9% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 2.55%, Females: +/- 2.86%,
18-34 age group: +/- 4.66%, 35-49 age group: +/- 3.81%, 50-64 age group: +/- 3.49%, 65+
age group: +/- 3.56%, British Columbia: +/- 4.77%, Alberta: +/- 6.42%, Prairies: +/- 7.41%,
Ontario: +/- 3.5%, Quebec: +/- 3.32%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 7.58%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.