Anda di halaman 1dari 2

See all ›

276 Citations
See all ›
85 References
See all ›
6 Figures
Share
Download full-text PDF

An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management


Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments
Article (PDF Available) in Natural Hazards 23(2):197-230 · January 2001 with 1,893 Reads
DOI: 10.1023/A:1011148019213
Cite this publication

Roger Neville Jones

o 31.88
o Victoria University Melbourne

Abstract
This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the
impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate
change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that
accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and
socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical
Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework
that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation
measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds
scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is
consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk
analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper
and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders.
The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using
this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change,
and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation
demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the
exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between
the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of
adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated
changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The
potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework
Convention for Climate Change is discussed.

Discover the world's research

 15+ million members


 118+ million publications
 700k+ research projects

Join for free

Figures - uploaded by Roger Neville Jones


Author content

Seven steps of impact assessment (Carter et al. , 1994).


Risk assessment framework for assessing climate change impacts shown without explicit links
between the steps.

+3

Risk response surface incorporating cumulative probability plots for regional climate change (shaded
area expressed as most likely to least likely outcomes summed to 100% probability) with the
sensitivity response of the farm cap for annual irrigation demand (lines expressed as percentage of
years the farm cap is exceeded) for 2070 in northern Victoria. A 50% rate of exceedance of the farm
cap is defined as a critical threshold. This is exceeded by 23% of projected climates (the total
probability of the shaded area to the upper right of the 50% threshold).

Download full-text PDF


Content uploaded by Roger Neville Jones
Author content

Anda mungkin juga menyukai