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HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF SURVEYING

A Spatio-Temporal Population Model for


Alarming, Situation Picture and Warning System

Zhe Zhang

Master`s Thesis

Supervisor: Professor Kirsi Virrantaus


Instructor: Researcher Jari Korpi, Msc.

Espoo, 23rd March, 2009


ABSTRACT
Author: Zhe Zhang
Department: Department of Surveying
Major subject: Geoinformatics

Title: A spatio-temporal population model for alarming, situation picture and warning system
Professorship: Maa-123 Cartography and Geoinformatics
Supervisor: Prof. Kirsi Virrantaus
Instructor: Researcher Jari Korpi, Msc.

Abstract:
Traditional Geographical Information System (GIS) applications describe reality in a static manner; the time
dimension is not taken into account. In real life, most phenomena change with time. That is why spatio-
temporal models have become more important in the GIS field. My research topic is a spatio-temporal
population model, which calculates the amount of people in a certain area at a certain time. The model is part
of the alarming, situational picture and warning system for CBRN and natural disaster incidents (UHHA)
project, which is funded by the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation(TEKES). Several
other organisations are involved in this project, such as Valtion Teknillinen Tutkimuskeskus (VTT), the
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Insta Ltd, Helsinki University, and Finnish Chemicals Ltd. The goal
of the whole project is to set up an alarm, warning, and information exchange system that rescue personnel
can use in the event of an emergency. A chemical accident in Kuusankoski is selected as a study case for this
research project. Finnish Chemicals Ltd is a company which produces hazardous chemicals such as chlorine,
chlorine dioxide, hydrogen, and sodium. In the event of a chemical leakage accident, the Finnish
Meteorological Institute is responsible for creating a dispersion model to identify the risk area. This risk area
will be the location input of the spatio-temporal population model. The model provides information about
how many people are located inside the risk area at a certain time. The whole system architecture is designed
by VTT. The data used for implementing the population model should be available for every municipality in
Finland. In this case, the Kuusankoski base register data (Building Information System) and Digiroad data
are used. The model is implemented in the Java programming language with the help of the ArcEngine API.

Number of pages: 78
Language: English
Key words: spatio-temporal model, spatio-temporal atom, estimation of population size, real world object,
Geodatabase, estimation methods

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

UHHA project is funded by TEKES so I would like to thank TEKES for providing me an
opportunity to finish my Master degree studies.

I would like to thank my excellent supervisor Professor Kirsi Virrantaus for her help and
support during my studies, and for the chance to work on this project.

I am grateful to Jari Korpi for his friendly cooperation on the project. He provided
visualized background map. He also acts as instructor for my thesis.

Thanks to my colleagues from Geoinformatics laboratory group for friendly working


atmosphere. I especially would like to thank Professor Ari Jorma who provides me
Digiroad data and Topographic Data Base. I would like to thank my colleagues Antti
Castrén, who had good discussion with me when I met technical problem. I am also
grateful to my colleague Rangsima Sunila for her friendship during the time I wrote the
thesis.

Thank you to my husband Tuomo Saari for his understanding and support. Thank you to
my dear daughter for giving me the strength to finish my studies. I would like to give my
greatest thanks to my parents for theirs support during my studies.

Espoo, March 2009


Zhe Zhang

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CONTENTS

1 Introduction............................................................................................................... 10
1.1 Background ....................................................................................................... 10
1.2 Research Objective ........................................................................................... 12
2 Literature survey ....................................................................................................... 13
2.1 Spatio-temporal data ......................................................................................... 13
2.2 Models in general.............................................................................................. 14
2.2.1 Model types............................................................................................... 14
2.2.2 Special GIS models................................................................................... 16
2.3 Existing spatio-temporal models....................................................................... 16
2.3.1 Basic models ............................................................................................. 17
2.3.1.1 Location-based models (Where view) .................................................. 17
2.3.1.2 Object- or feature-based models (What view) ...................................... 18
2.3.1.3 Time-based models (Snapshot view) .................................................... 21
2.3.1.4 Event-based models (When view) ........................................................ 22
2.3.2 Advanced models...................................................................................... 23
2.3.2.1 Process-oriented models (How view) ................................................... 23
2.3.2.2 Causal models (Why view)................................................................... 23
2.4 Database Management Systems........................................................................ 24
2.4.1 Database software products ...................................................................... 24
2.4.1.1 Platform comparison............................................................................. 24
2.4.1.2 Feature comparison............................................................................... 24
2.4.1.3 Spatial Extension .................................................................................. 25
2.4.2 Designing spatio-temporal databases........................................................ 25
3 Implementation ......................................................................................................... 29
3.1 Data in detail ..................................................................................................... 29
3.1.1 Finnish coordinate system......................................................................... 29
3.1.2 Data Legislation ........................................................................................ 31
3.1.2.1 Legislation for regional land planning data .......................................... 31

4
3.1.2.2 Legislation for Kuusankoski Base Register data .................................. 32
3.1.2.3 Legislation for Topographic Database.................................................. 32
3.1.2.4 Legislation for Digiroad........................................................................ 32
3.1.3 Background map ....................................................................................... 33
3.1.4 Digiroad data............................................................................................. 34
3.1.5 Kuusankoski base register data................................................................. 34
3.2 Data processing................................................................................................. 36
3.2.1 Automatic processing................................................................................ 36
3.2.2 Manual processing .................................................................................... 38
3.3 Method .............................................................................................................. 38
3.3.1 Spatio-temporal model and model type .................................................... 38
3.3.2 Population size estimation methods.......................................................... 40
3.3.2.1 Roads and residential buildings ............................................................ 40
3.3.2.2 Office buildings, old people’s homes, day care centres, restaurants, and
bars 41
3.3.2.3 Hospitals, schools, hotels, and industrial buildings .............................. 41
3.3.2.4 Shops..................................................................................................... 42
3.3.3 Modelling the time.................................................................................... 42
3.3.4 Programming language ............................................................................. 44
3.3.5 Hardware and software ............................................................................. 44
4 Results....................................................................................................................... 45
5 Alternative Implementation ...................................................................................... 53
5.1 System architecture........................................................................................... 53
5.2 Advantages and drawbacks............................................................................... 54
6 Discussion and Conclusions ..................................................................................... 55
7 References................................................................................................................. 57
8 Appendix................................................................................................................... 64
Spatio-Temporal Population Model for Earthquake Warning System ............................. 64
8.1 Objective ........................................................................................................... 64
8.2 Data and software ............................................................................................. 65
8.3 Method .............................................................................................................. 65

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8.4 Results............................................................................................................... 66
8.5 Result format..................................................................................................... 78

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1UHHA project system architecture. .................................................................... 11


Figure 2 Types of Models. ................................................................................................ 15
Figure 3 Temporal grids represented as a space-time composite. No new spatial objects
are formed because no intersections occur. The result is a set of variable length lists
referenced to grid cells.............................................................................................. 18
Figure 4 Base state with amendments model for a parcel layer. Amendments could be
stored in separate amendment layers or in a composite layer [Freelan, 2003]. ........ 19
Figure 5 A space-time composite layer for burns [Yuan, 2008]....................................... 20
Figure 6 ST objects modeling regional change and decomposition of ST objects into ST
atoms [Worboys, 1992]............................................................................................. 20
Figure 7 An example of a snapshot model [Armstrong, 1988]......................................... 21
Figure 8 An example of a space-time cube model [Kraak, 2008]. ................................... 22
Figure 9 Event-based spatio-temporal model [Peuquet, 1999]......................................... 22
Figure 10 The eight possible spatio-temporal changes a geographic object may go
through [Roshannejad & Kainz, 1995]. .................................................................... 27
Figure 11 The Kuusankoski building data added as a layer in ArcMap and the buildings
displayed as blue dots ............................................................................................... 37
Figure 12 User interface.................................................................................................... 45
Figure 13 Meaning of Tools. ............................................................................................ 46
Figure 14 Road and building layers are turned on. ........................................................... 47
Figure 15 Buffer layer is shown on the map. User can select time in Set Time combo box.
................................................................................................................................... 48
Figure 16 Analysis function.............................................................................................. 49
Figure 17 Estimating population size for an office building. ........................................... 50
Figure 18 Analysis results................................................................................................. 52
Figure 19 Web-based architecture. ................................................................................... 54
Figure 20 Method for estimating numbers of Finns at different times. ............................ 66
Figure 21 User interface.................................................................................................... 67

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Figure 22 List of tools....................................................................................................... 67
Figure 23 Road layer is turned on..................................................................................... 68
Figure 24 Building layer turned on, click building button to show legend. ..................... 69
Figure 25 Airport and buffer layer are shown on the map................................................ 69
Figure 26 Select time by using the ‘Select Time’ combo box.......................................... 70
Figure 27 Estimated total amount of Finns on Rhodes..................................................... 71
Figure 28 Population estimation method for time 0400 to 1000. .................................... 72
Figure 29 Population estimation method for time 1000 to 1200. ..................................... 73
Figure 30 Population estimation method for time 1200 to 1400. ..................................... 74
Figure 31 Population estimation method for time 1400 to 1700. ..................................... 75
Figure 32 Population estimation method for time 1700 to 1900. ..................................... 76
Figure 33 Population estimation method for time 1900 to 2200. ..................................... 77
Figure 34 Population estimation method for time 2200 to 0400. ..................................... 78

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Classification of change in process-oriented models........................................... 23


Table 2 Geodatabase management systems [David & Michael, 2008]. ........................... 26
Table 3 Basic KKJ coordinate system. ............................................................................. 30
Table 4 Projection parameters for ETRS-TM35FINm ETRS_GKn and KKJ. ................ 31
Table 5 Topographic database description. ...................................................................... 33
Table 6 Kuusankoski building information system description. ...................................... 35
Table 7 Buildings are grouped according to their purpose of use. ................................... 39
Table 8 Shop types, floor area, and estimated number of customers. .............................. 42
Table 9 Percentage of size of population for buildings and roads. ................................... 43

LIST OF EQUATIONS

(1). Population size estimation method for office buildings............................................. 41

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1 Introduction

1.1 Background

The spatio-temporal population model is part of the UHHA project. The goal of the
whole project is to set up an alarm, warning, and information exchange system that
rescue personnel can use in the event of an emergency. For instance, when an accident
happens, the UHHA system can provide information about the location, time dimension,
and corresponding population size information to rescue service personnel through the
UHHA server in order to support rescue decision-making. Figure 1 shows the system
architecture of the UHHA project. The UHHA server is the main user interface and was
implemented by VTT. It is a web user interface which requests population information
from the population model and sends the population model results to the Inter-
organisational Crisis Manager system (iCM). The Insta iCM system is designed to
support decision-making and the coordination of operations between crisis management
organisations, both in international and domestic crisis situations. It is a solution for
situational awareness and information management which facilitates fast and secure
network-based communication, thus increasing operational efficiency and improving
personnel security in field operations [Insta, 2009]. The dispersion model was created by
the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The dispersion model is added to the population
model as a location input, and the results of the population model can also be sent back to
the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

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Figure 1UHHA project system architecture.

Several previous research projects are related to this research project. Some of them can
be used as practical tools or comparable results for this research project.

The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF) is focused on preparedness for crisis situations. The
FDF funded a research project called Damage Analysis during the years 2004-2005. A
GIS application was used to develop the modeling and visualisation of the damage
caused by military fire attacks on a built-up environment (buildings) and the associated
population. The aim of this research project was to support evacuation and resource
planning in any kind of extreme situation. For this application, the first version of a
simple spatio-temporal model of population location was developed [Ahola, 2006]. The
result is used as a comparable result for this research project.

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Risk assessment in the Finnish Fire and Rescue Service uses a simple model to produce a
risk zone map in which each grid cell is classified on a risk level from 1 to 4. The risk
level is calculated on the basis of the amount of the population, the floor area in square
metres, and the probability of traffic accidents. The population information comes from
the population register, which only provides the residential address for each citizen and
does not take into account any activities. For this project, the risk model should be
improved in the future. For example, the varying consequences for the different types of
accidents should be considered and the evaluating of the infrastructure should be
analysed. The input value should be changed not only spatially but also temporally.
Therefore the spatio-temporal model might be needed in the future.

The ‘municipal response to climate change’ project is an EU project which studies


municipal responses to emergencies caused by climate change. Flooding in Helsinki is
selected as a case study. The goal of this project is to give the user a visual view of how
many people are located in a flooding area when the sea level rises by a certain number
of centimetres. The final stage of the experiment involved a partial utilisation of the
spatio-temporal population model. The idea was to overlap the building data (including
the estimated population at each time of day) with the flooding area data to determine the
proportional change in the number of people in flooded and dry areas [Veijalainen, 2008].

1.2 Research Objective

The research objective is to create a spatio-temporal population model which estimates


how many people are located in a risk area at a certain time. The model should be
suitable for every municipality in Finland. This means that the data used for
implementing this population model should be available for all Finnish municipalities,
and the software requirements for running the model should be limited. One professional
worker is needed to set up the environment before the model is used. The worker should
be familiar with the Java programming language and basic GIS tools.

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2 Literature survey

The core elements in spatio-temporal modelling are spatio-temporal data, a temporal


database, and a data model. The data model defines how the spatio-temporal information
is stored and how it is searched for and retrieved from the database.

2.1 Spatio-temporal data

The spatio-temporal model is used to model geospatial objects that change in a certain
time period. Therefore, spatio-temporal data play an important role in the modelling
process. Hardware and software limitations and the spatio-temporal data available are the
key points that define which spatio-temporal method is chosen in the modelling process.
Dynamic information can be divided into real-time data, near-real-time data, and time-
stamped data according to the duration of the time [Nadi & Delavar, 2008].

Real-time data refers to those geospatial data, such as traffic volume, that are collected
and imported to GIS as soon as an event occurs. Real-time phenomena often produce a
dataset called a time series, in which time is a dimension. Spatial data are recorded with a
real-time component called the temporal dimension. Near-real-time data are related to
updating at any given moment and visualization, and analysis. For instance, complex
processes and analysis may be needed for such data before they can be used in GIS.
Time-stamped data refers to data that have a time attribute represented by them.

When an event occurs in the real world, it can be called a valid time event. A valid time
event can be imported to GIS and retrieved and manipulated with GIS tools [Nadi &
Delavar, 2008].

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2.2 Models in general

Many definitions of modelling can be found. The Fishery Glossary dictionary defines
modelling as “the construction of physical, conceptual or mathematical simulations of the
real world. Models help to show relationships between processes (physical, economic or
social) and may be used to predict the effects of changes in land use” [Fishery Glossary,
2008]. In a GIS system, models are used to describe reality. Each model is an
approximation and simplification of reality.

2.2.1 Model types

Iconic models describe the linear transformation of a configuration of objects in the


universe. The representation is based on the assurance that the model retains the
universe’s topological characteristics, for instance scale models, photographs, or a
graphical representation of networks. In behavioural models, the relations are
transformation, equations, or operating rules. The representation is based on the premise
that the behaviour of the model corresponds to the behaviour of the system being
modelled. An example of a behavioural model is the computer simulation of an economy.
A symbolic model uses a set of symbols and the relations are expressed in the form of
algebraic, computational, or algorithmic statements exhibiting no behaviour of their own.
A symbolic model can be changed into a behavioural model with pre-processing. For
example, a formal statement about a social process must be translated into an algorithmic
form which is acceptable to a computer [Krippendorff, 2008].
Figure 2 illustrates the types of models.

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Figure 2 Types of Models.

An optimisation model aims at finding the best solution to the problem. A simulation
model is the manipulation of a model in order to perceive interactions that would not
otherwise be apparent because of their separation in time or space [Bellinger, 2004]. A
simulation model generally refers to the manipulation of a model using computing
methods. One can develop a model, simulate it, and learn from the simulation, revise the
model, and continue the iterations until an adequate level of understanding is developed.

Simulation is also a way to evaluate the quality of the model. Whether a model is good or
not depends on the accuracy with which a real system is represented and the extent to
which it promotes understanding. Since all models are simplifications of reality, the level
of detail presented in the model is an important issue. If too little detail is presented in the
model it may cause the risk of missing relevant interactions, thereby reducing the ability
to understand. If too much detail is included in the model, it may cause redundancy in the
model and actually preclude the development of understanding. Simulation is a way to
examine the level of detail of the model. In a paper which provides an introduction to

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modeling and simulation, gives a good example of how to use Ithink software to simulate
a model.[Berllinger,2004].

Models are also either deterministic or stochastic. A deterministic model uses fixed
parameters. Deterministic models perform in the same way for a given set of initial
conditions. For instance, a similar input always produces a similar output, such as in a
known chemical reaction. A stochastic model is constructed on the basis of ranges of
values for variables in the form of the statistical distribution of the phenomena [Business
Dictionary, 2008].

2.2.2 Special GIS models

In addition to the above-mentioned general modelling methods, there are several special
modelling methods that can be used in GIS. In a physical elevation model, the data are
collected from the real world and stored in a data structure. They can be used for the
interpolation of unknown values, the visualisation of the phenomenon, or for analysing,
for example, the slope or visibility of the terrain. For instance, the Triangulated
Irregular Network (TIN) [Poiker, 2008] and grid-based model are typical physical
models. A cartographic model uses layers to represent a theme. Tomlin’s map algebra is
an example of a cartographic model [Gilberto et al., 2005][Tomlin,1990].

2.3 Existing spatio-temporal models

Spatio-temporal GIS models the states of objects or features which are related with space
and time, and their inter-relations in space and time. A spatio-temporal dataset is defined
as the collection of all the possible states of objects of interest in the domain being
studied. The term ‘change’ is here used to define an ordered set of states, each of which
belongs to a given spatio-temporal dataset and which is used to describe the
transformation of a spatial object between two points in time.

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Spatio-temporal conceptual models can be classified into basic models and advanced
models according to their ability to represent and classify entities in the data space. Basic
models include location-based models, object- or feature-based models, time-based
models, and event-based models. Advanced models include process-oriented models and
causal models [El-Geresy & Abdelmoty, 2002].

2.3.1 Basic models

Basic models are used to retrieve state and changes on the basis of location, feature type,
object, or temporal properties. They can be classified into What, When, and Where views.

2.3.1.1 Location-based models (Where view)

In a location-based model, the classifications are based on locations on the space axis.
The space is divided into locations by means of a grid and for each location the changes
are recorded in a list representing successive changes in the features of that specific
location, with their corresponding time. One example of a location-based model is
Langran’s temporal raster data model. [El-Geresy et al., 2002].

Langran’s raster data model is an extension of a normal raster data model. There are two
major data structures that are used to describe the surface. The simplest and most
common is a regular grid and other is a triangulated irregular network. Gridded data with
a finer resolution are often referred to as raster or image data. Gridded data are location-
based; this means that they describe what exists at a given location but with a lack of
perimeter, shape, or contiguity. Gridded data can be ordered in three ways. Row ordering
can be used for ordering gridded images because specialised array-processing hardware
can be used in image display and analysis. Row-prime ordering can minimise the storage
gap between the row elements at the matrix edges, but no coherence is gained between
the elements of the column. A hierarchy is one solution to the collocation problem that
has been proposed. In hierarchical ordering, grids are stored in quad trees, which are
organised using pointers or computed addresses.

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Langran’s raster data model defines a space-time composite from a sequence of grids. It
means that the values held by each grid cell over time are described by a list of attributes
bracketed by validity date, and no geometric intersections occur. A space-time composite
can generate new cells from the intersection of two grids if the grid characteristics are
redefined to sample at a different resolution or cover a slightly different area [Langran,
1992].

Figure 3 Temporal grids represented as a space-time composite. No new spatial objects are formed
because no intersections occur. The result is a set of variable length lists referenced to grid cells.

2.3.1.2 Object- or feature-based models (What view)

A feature-based model is an extension of a vector model; these include Langran’s base


state with amendment model [Langran, 1992], Langran and Chrisman’s space-time
composite model [Langran, 1992], and Worboys’ spatio-temporal object model
[Worboys, 1992].

In Langran’s base state with amendment model, temporal data are stored not as complete
new snapshots of the area of interest, but as departures from a base state. Temporality is
used to describe the type, time, and sequence of change. Objects or events are stored as
they occur rather than at regular sampling intervals. The base state with amendments
model is superior to the snapshots model because it represents changes as the boundaries
of both states and versions. It also a starting point for the building of a space-time

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composite model for storage purposes. Figure 4 shows an example of a base state with
amendment model. It uses an initial base state data layer which was created at the earliest
point in time. From this base layer, any other alternatives are stored in a separate database
file. In order to create the event for a given time period, the base state is sequentially
altered by the necessary amendments until the required data are achieved [Freelan, 2003].

Figure 4 Base state with amendments model for a parcel layer. Amendments could be stored in
separate amendment layers or in a composite layer [Freelan, 2003].

Langran and Chrisman’s space-time composite model was originally suggested by


Chrisman [Chrisman, 1983] and is described in detail in Langran and Chrisman [Langran
& Chrisman, 1988]. It represents the real world as a set of spatially homogenous
fragments with temporality in a 2D space. Figure 5 shows an example of a space-time
composite layer. The whole area is decomposed over time into increasingly smaller
fragments. Each fragment has common spatio-temporal units, each of which, for instance,
references a distinct temporal attribute set.

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Figure 5 A space-time composite layer for burns [Yuan, 2008].

Worboys’ spatio-temporal object model (ST Object model) [Worboys, 1992] represents
the world as a set of discrete objects consisting of spatio-temporal atoms by incorporating
a temporal dimension orthogonal to the 2D space. Each spatio-temporal atom contains
changes in both space and time, but no changes are recorded between spatio-temporal
atoms.

Figure 6 ST objects modeling regional change and decomposition of ST objects into ST atoms
[Worboys, 1992].

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2.3.1.3 Time-based models (Snapshot view)

Time-based models include snapshot models [Armstrong, 1988] [Hunter & Williamson,
1990], and space-time cube models [Hägerstrand, 1970].

In a snapshot model, the state of the world at specific times is captured. This model is
suitable for both raster and vector data sets. The drawback of this model is the un-
avoidable redundancy in the data recorded. Figure 7 shows an example of a snapshot
model. In this model, each layer represents one snapshot with specific times attached.

Figure 7 An example of a snapshot model [Armstrong, 1988].

Space-time cube models represent space and time as a three-dimensional cube. The X
and Y coordinates represent the geography, while the height (Z) of the cube represents
time. Figure 8 (I) is an example of a space-time cube model which demonstrates the
travel footprint of a person on an average Thursday in Enschede, the Netherlands. Figure
8 (II) presents the basics of a space-time cube, a space-time path and its footprints. The
vertical line in the path represents the time a person remains at the same location, called a
station. Figure 8 (III) introduces a space-time prism (STP), which indicates the locations
that can be reached in a particular time interval.

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Figure 8 An example of a space-time cube model [Kraak, 2008].

2.3.1.4 Event-based models (When view)

An event-based model [Peuquet & Duan, 1995] deals with more abstracted relations than
the previous models. The temporal relations between two states of objects or locations in
space are defined explicitly. An event is used to represent the change, which is identified
as the line joining two states in the data space [El-Geresy & Abdelmoty, 2002].

Figure 9 Event-based spatio-temporal model [Peuquet, 1999].

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2.3.2 Advanced models

Advanced models are used to retrieve changes on the basis of their underlying processes
and on their interaction. They can be classified into How and Why views.

2.3.2.1 Process-oriented models (How view)

El-Geresy presents a process-oriented model as [El-Geresy & Abdelmoty, 2002] the


spatial relations between successive states of objects are explicitly defined and classified
into specific processes. Many examples can be found in the literature of research into
identifying the meaning of change.

Name of author Classification of change


Gagnon [Gagnon et al., One entity
1992] Two entities
N Entities
Claramunt & Evolution of single entity
Theriault Functional relationships between entities
[Claramunt & Evolution of spatial structure involving several
Theriault, 1995] entities
[Edwards et al., 1993]

Renolen [Renolen, Creation, Alteration, Cessation, Reincarnation,


1997] Merging/Annexation and Splitting/Deduction
Cheng & Molenaar Shift, Appear, Disappear, Split, Merge, Expand,
[Cheng & Molenaar, and Shrink.
1998]

Table 1 Classification of change in process-oriented models.

2.3.2.2 Causal models (Why view)

Causal models are used to model a specific temporal relation which exists between cause
and effect. Cause always either proceeds or coincides. It is the start of its effect. Allen et
al. and Edwards et al. define the differences between the effects caused by other events or
an intentional agent. The uncertainty of the introduction of some attributes is also

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presented in this model [Allen et al., 1995] [Edwards et al., 1993]. Causal models are
often used in decision-making. In the decision-making process, influence diagrams can
display the relationships between the elements affecting the decision.

2.4 Database Management Systems

2.4.1 Database software products

There are many database management software packages available in the market, such as
Oracle, the IBM DB2 universal database, PostgreSQL, MySQL, the SQL server, and
ESRI’s database management system, Microsoft Office Access etc. In the GIS field, the
most commonly used database software products are Oracle, PostgreSQL, MySQL, and
the ESRI Geodatabase. A more detailed comparison of database management systems
can be found in the following section.

2.4.1.1 Platform comparison

The most commonly used platforms are Windows-based platforms, AIX-based systems,
HP-UX systems, Linux Intel, Sun Solaris, and so on. SQL Server 2000 only works on
Windows-based platforms, including Windows 9x, Windows NT, Windows 2000, and
Windows CE. Oracle, the DB2 Universal Database, and PostgreSQL support all those
platforms [Ali & Dodge, 2008].

2.4.1.2 Feature comparison

Oracle is the leader in the database management field. It offers all the features required
for information integration in a single unified product. IBM has a completely different
model for information integration. Each product has to be installed and configured
separately since it offers different products for different integration scenarios.
PostgreSQL and MySQL are suitable for small databases, for example those of less than
100 GB. DB2 offers a basic set of backup and recovery capabilities but lacks
completeness and depth of data protection [Ali & Dodge, 2008].

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2.4.1.3 Spatial Extension

The Open GIS Consortium published the Open GIS Simple Features Specifications for
SQL in the year 1997. It is a document that proposes several conceptual ways for
extending an SQL RDBMS to support spatial data. Spatial extension is very important for
GIS users because most GIS data are spatial data [Ali & Dodge, 2008].

DB2, MySQL, Oracle (Oracle Spatial), and PostgreSQL have a spatial extender adapted
to a database management system. Oracle Spatial is used for developing enterprise-wide
spatial information systems and web-based and wireless location-based applications. For
instance, it provides data management for location information on areas such as road
networks, wireless service boundaries, and geocoded customer addresses, which are
driving innovative product development in the emerging online, wireless, and in-vehicle
telematics markets. These location-based services allow users to incorporate location
information directly into their applications and services [Oracle, 2009].

The ESRI Geodatabase is used to store geographical data implemented with relational
databases. All the Geodatabase elements are managed in a standard database management
system table using a standard simplified query language (SQL). Table 2 shows
information about different Geodatabases [David & Michael, 2008].

2.4.2 Designing spatio-temporal databases

Traditional database systems retain only the latest state of the modelled system, which
presents a static view of the environment. The representation of time, the selection of
appropriate temporal granularity, the level at which temporality should be introduced,
and temporal reasoning are the basic issues in designing spatio-temporal databases.

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Geodatabase Licensing RDBMS technology Characteristics
Enterprise ArcGIS Server DB2, Informix, Oracle, - Multiuser editing
Enterprise SQL Server, - Support for versioning
PostgreSQL - Supports spatial types
Workgroup ArcGIS Server SQL Server Express - Support for versioning
Workgroup - Maximum of 4 GB of data
- 10 concurrent users
Desktop ArcGIS Desktop SQL Server Express - Support for versioning
ArcGIS Engine - Maximum of 4 GB of data
- 4 concurrent connections
File ArcInfo, ArcEditor, No RDBMS - uses - No versioning support
ArcView local file structure - 1 TB per table size limit
(default)
Personal ArcInfo, ArcEditor, Microsoft Access (Jet - No versioning support
ArcView Engine) - Maximum of 2 GB of data

Table 2 Geodatabase management systems [David & Michael, 2008].

In a spatio-temporal database management system, time can be categorised into valid


time and transaction time. Valid time or real-world time represents the time at which a
change took place. Transaction or database time denotes the instant at which this was
registered in the database.

User-defined time means an attribute especially allocated by the user. A spatio-temporal


database should be designed in such a way that it can handle alternative timelines, for
example continuous, cyclic, branching, and terminating time in the GIS data model.

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Many research works can be found in the literature which deal with how to design a
spatio-temporal database. Koeppel and Ahlmer [Koeppel & Ahlmer, 1993] divide
temporal databases into two categories: attribute-oriented spatio-temporal databases
track changes in information about spatial entities; topology-oriented spatio-temporal
databases track changes in positional information about features and their spatial
relationships. Roshannejad and Kainz define databases according to the nature of the
changes. Figure 10 shows metrics which show how the topology and attributes of a
geographic object may or may not change over time [Abraham & Roddick, 1998].

Figure 10 The eight possible spatio-temporal changes a geographic object may go through
[Roshannejad & Kainz, 1995].

27
Hunter and Williamson [Hunter and Williamson, 1990] propose time-stamping parcels
and the argument arises that in digital cadastral databases, storing full layers of graphic
information for different time periods is impractical. Armstrong [Armstrong, 1988] gives
three alternative proposals for the organisation of spatio-temporal databases, describing
them by using entity-category relationship diagrams. For grid-based databases, an
attribute history is proposed for each individual cell, thus avoiding the costly storage of
whole data layers for each version. For vector-based databases, depending on whether
durations are recorded explicitly using from- and to-dates or implicitly through recording
single time-stamps, the method associates interval-stamped attributes with locations or
attributed dates with locations in many relationships, respectively. Rafaat et al. [Rafaat et
al., 1994] propose a relational method for accessing spatial and temporal topologies. In
their model, a geographical entity goes through a series of historical states of various
durations caused by mutations (changes), until it loses its “essential property”, which
means a user-defined object identifier. Beller [Beller, 1991] presents a grid-based model
which defines an ‘event’as an object with spatial and temporal extents.

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3 Implementation

3.1 Data in detail

Three main data sources were used for implementing this project. Digiroad and the
Kuusankoski Base Register data were used to calculate the size of the population in the
risk area. They were stored in the Personal Geodatabase Management System. The
topographic database was background map data which gave the user a visual view of the
Kuusankoski area. In addition, a dispersion model was created by experts from the
Finnish Meteorological Institute. The dispersion model is used to define the risk area.

Digiroad data are real-time data and the Kuusankoski base register data are near-real-time
data. The traffic density (amount of people passing through a certain road segment in a
second) in the Digiroad data was collected and imported to GIS as soon as an event
occurred. The Kuusankoski base register data need pre-processing and analysis in order
to be used in GIS [Nadi & Delavar, 2008].

3.1.1 Finnish coordinate system

The most popular Finnish coordinate systems used in the GIS field are
Kartastokoordinaattijärjestelmä (KKJ) and EUREF-FIN (ETRS89 realisation in Finland).
The Finnish Geodetic Institute (FGI) and the National Land Survey of Finland (NLS) are
responsible for creating and maintaining the national reference frames used for national
mapping purposes. Helsingin Järjestelmä (VVJ) is the predecessor of KKJ. ED50 is based
on the national adjustment of the first-order triangulation network in 1966.

The KKJ coordinate system is a 2D coordinate system, derived from ED50 by shifting
and rotating the ED50 plan coordinate in order to fit the KKJ’s predecessor VVJ. KKJ
coordinates can be presented in terms of latitude and longitude or in rectangular grid
coordinates such as northing and easting. The reference ellipsoid used with KKJ is the

29
International 1924 ellipsoid, also called the Hayford ellipsoid. [Ollikainen & Ollikainen,
2008] [Uikkanen, 2008].The KKJ grid consists of six zones, each 3 degrees wide. It is
also called the ‘Basic Coordinate System’ or YKJ. Finland is located inside zones 1 to 4.
On topographic maps the Basic Coordinate Systems grid lines are printed in black and the
Uniform Coordinate Systems grid-lines are printed in red [Uikkanen, 2008].

Projection Ellipsoid Zone Central False Scale factor at Zone


Meridian Easting Central Meridian width
KKJ International 0 18 500000 1.000 3
1924
KKJ International 1 21 1500000 1.000 3
1924
KKJ International 2 24 2500000 1.000 3
1924
KKJ International 3 27 3500000 1.000 3
1924
KKJ International 4 30 4500000 1.000 3
1924
KKJ International 5 33 5500000 1.000 3
1924
Table 3 Basic KKJ coordinate system.

The current KKJ national coordinate system will be replaced by the ETRS89 pan-
European coordinate system in the future. ETRS89 is a 3D reference system. The Finnish
Geodetic Institute created a reference frame called EUREF-FIN, which is fixed to the
Europe-wide EUREF89 reference frame. EUREF89 is a realisation of ETRS89. EUREF-
FIN coincides with WGS84 at the centimetre level. EUREF-FIN and WGS84 can be
considered as being the same. Gauss-Krüger projection can be used for local mapping
and spatial information services. Table 4 shows the projection parameters for ETRS-
TM35FIN and ETRS-GKn. The GRS80 reference ellipsoid is used in conversion between
the 3D X, Y, and Z coordinates and geodetic coordinates [Ollikainen & Ollikainen, 2008]
[Uikkanen, 2008].

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Projection Ellipsoid Central False Easting Scale factor at Zone width
Meridian Central
Meridian
ETRS- GRS80 27 0.9996 13
500000
TM35FIN (8500000)
ETRS-GK GRS80 19,20,...,31 500000 1.0000 1

Table 4 Projection parameters for ETRS-TM35FINm ETRS_GKn and KKJ.

3.1.2 Data Legislation

3.1.2.1 Legislation for regional land planning data

In Finland, every municipality has the responsibility for collecting its regional land
planning data. The Finnish law on planning and building states that the National Land
Survey has the power to define the quality and scales of land planning measurements
[Maankäyttö- ja rakennuslaki, 1999]. The Planning Measurement Decree, which is based
on the above-mentioned law, mentions some general technical principles concerning land
measurement [Kaavoitusasetus, 1999]. On the basis of the above legislation, the National
Land Survey has laid down the land measurement rules called Kaavoitusmittausohjeet
[MML, 2003], which classify the land into 3 groups. For each group, it attaches an
accuracy requirement for land measurement.

Group 1: densely populated area, in which the land value is very high. Accuracy of land
measurement data: 1:500, 1:1000, or 1: 2000.
Group 2: residential area with a preponderance of detached houses. Accuracy of land
measurement data: 1:1000 or 1: 2000.
Group 3: areas where there is a more detailed plan than the master plan requires, but
municipal engineering (drains, sewers, or electricity) is not required.
Accuracy of land measurement data: 1:2000 or 1:5000.

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3.1.2.2 Legislation for Kuusankoski Base Register data

The laws considering the Finnish base register data are the Population Information Act
[Väestötietolaki, 1993] and the Population Information Decree [Väestötietoasetus, 1993].
The data used for this research project are only part of the Kuusankoski base register data,
which are called the Building Information System.

3.1.2.3 Legislation for Topographic Database

In the topographic database, the National Land Survey acts as the minister for general
mapping and survey [Laki Maanmittauslaitoksesta, 1991]. The data in the Topographic
Database are used for mapping purposes and come from various sources. For instance,
the building centre points come from the Building Information System. There is a quality
model for the topographic database which describes the positional accuracy of the
different features. It contains two different quality classes: A and B. For buildings and
roads the A class accuracy is 3 m and that of the B class 12.5 m. Generally, the A class
accuracy is 5 m and that of the B class 20 m. The scale matches scales of 1:5000 and
1:10000.

3.1.2.4 Legislation for Digiroad

The legislation is based on the law for the information system on the road and street
network [Laki tie- ja katuverkon tietojärjestelmästä 991/2003]. The administrative duty
falls on the National Road Administration but the data come from municipalities
(attribute data of streets), the NRA (attribute data of public roads), and the NLS (attribute
data of private roads and geometry for all the roads). The geometry is exactly the same as
in topographic database.

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3.1.3 Background map

The data used for the background maps are taken from the Topographic Database
maintained by the National Land Survey of Finland. Table 5 illustrates the main features
that the Topographic Database contains. The national land survey delivers Topographic
Database data by means of the rescue service grid, which has a KKJ3 coordinate system.
Each grid is of a size of 80 km * 80 km [Genimap, 2007]. Kuusankoski is located inside
the rescue service grids 20P1, 20P2, 20P3, and 20P4.

Features Description Classifications


Roads It is linear in shape. Roads with two lanes
It contains road location Roads with one lane
information and road Footpaths
identification. Railways
Buildings It has a polygonal shape. It Commercial buildings
contains information on the Industrial buildings
location of buildings and the Residential buildings
identification number of
buildings.
Land type It describes different types of Runways
land use with location Airports
information. It has a polygonal Fields or meadows
shape. Water regions
Parks
Sand areas
Rock areas

Urban area It has a polygonal shape. It


contains location information on
an urban area.
Water region Streams
Lakes

Table 5 Topographic database description.

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3.1.4 Digiroad data

Digiroad data describe the geometry and physical features of roads and streets in Finland.
Digiroad is a national database which provides accurate data on the location of all the
roads and streets, as well as their most important physical features. It covers a total of
430,000 km of roads. The data are in vector format. The Digiroad project started in 2001
and the system was completed in December 2004. The Finnish Road Administration is
responsible for maintaining and updating the data.

In this research project, Digiroad data are used for estimating the amount of people
passing over selected roads during a certain period of time.The important information
related with this research project are: the shape of the data; the official name and number
of the road; the location of the road; the width and type of the road; the number of traffic
lanes; the street names, and the traffic density [Tiehallinto, 2008].

3.1.5 Kuusankoski base register data

The Finnish base register (Finnish basic information system) is: 1) a personal information
system; 2) various information systems covering enterprises, corporation, and
foundations; 3) a building information system, and 4) a land information system. The
Land Information System is comprised of the Cadastral and Land Registers. The Building
Information System and personal information system are parts of the Population
Information System. The base register was prescribed by act or decree. The Finnish base
register is broad in coverage and reliable under data protection. Access to, and the
delivery of, data are strictly regulated [Rekisteripooli, 2003].

“The actual Building Information System contains the building and dwelling information
in the Population Information System maintained jointly by the Population Register
Centre, local register offices and local authorities”[Rekisteripooli, 2003].

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The Kuusankoski base register data (Building Information System) is used for estimating
the amount of people located inside buildings in a risk area. It contains the information
given in Table 6.

Content Description
Building identification It provides a unique identifying number for every
building.
X and Y coordinates of the building It describes the location of the building in the KKJ
coordinate system.
Purpose of use of the building Hospital, social affairs, industrial production, health
care, other sport and fitness purposes, religious
institute building, warehouse, shopping centres,
shop, animal housing (cows, pigs, and hens), fire
station, elementary or secondary school, restaurant
(cafeteria or bar), row house, sauna, facility for
young people, parish building, outbuilding, tennis or
badminton hall, industry and small-scale industry,
industrial building, industrial warehouse, health
centre, telecom building, office building, research
building, indoor swimming pool, old people’s
home, grain drier, power plant, bomb shelter, one-
family home, community development building.

Floor area of the building Total floor area of the building


Number of floors Number of floors in the building
Number of homes Number of apartments in the building
Total amount of inhabitants Total amount of people living in the building
Amount of inhabitants grouped according to age 0-6 years old, 7-15 years old, 16-24 years old, 25-64
years old and over 65 years old.

Table 6 Kuusankoski building information system description.

35
The hazardous chemicals dispersion model is produced by experts from the Finnish
Meteorological Institute. A program called ESCAPE (Expert System for Consequence
Analysis using a Personal computer) is used. This program can evaluate the releases,
source terms, and atmospheric dispersion of hazardous chemicals and is applicable to
both the continuous and instantaneous releases of toxic and flammable gases into the
atmosphere. The input environment can be as follows: substances released; accident type;
source; prevailing weather conditions, and environment. The input data also include wind
direction, atmospheric stability, ambient temperature, wind speed, and the relative
humidity of the ambient air [FMI, 2008]. The dispersion model is delivered in shape
format via email.

3.2 Data processing

ArcMap and ArcCatalog are the main tools for data processing. Using ArcMap, the user
can create maps, analyse spatial relations, edit feature shapes, and visualise and manage
geographic data. Geographic information is displayed on a map as layers, and each layer
represents a particular type of feature. ArcCatolog is similar to Windows Explorer, except
that it was designed by ESRI. It is used to move map files and folders from one location
to another. It can recognise all the relevant files that must be transferred with ESRI shape
files. The Topographic Database, Digiroad data, Kuusankoski building information
system data, and the dispersion model are all added to one ArcMap as separate layers.
The ArcMap tool box has several powerful tools for manipulating the data. For instance,
selection with the ‘location’ tool could select all the features (e.g. buildings and roads)
which are located inside the risk area. ArcCatalog is used for creating Geodatabase files.

3.2.1 Automatic processing

The background map (Topographic Database) is divided into four sections, because the
city of Kuusankoski is located in the rescue service grid zones 20P1, 20P2, 20P3, and
20P4. The data for each zone are added into ArcMap as a separate layer. The ‘Append’
tool is first used to append multiple input features to the target feature class. For instance,

36
building features from different rescue service grid zones can be appended to one target
building layer.

The background map is visualised in such a way that a zooming scale is added to each
map layer in ArcMap. For instance, building layers are not visible with a small zooming
scale.

The Kuusankoski building information system data were delivered in text file format via
email, which is not compatible with ArcMap. The text format data were first converted
into dBase format and then imported to ArcMap. The data describe the locations of
buildings in terms of X Y coordinates, so the ArcMap ‘display x y data’ tool can be used
to add this dBase table to ArcMap as a layer. Figure 11 shows the result of adding the
Kuusankoski building information system data into ArcMap and displays the buildings as
blue dots.

Figure 11 The Kuusankoski building data added as a layer in ArcMap and the buildings displayed as
blue dots

37
Digiroad data use the EUREF_FIN coordinate system, which is not compatible with the
other Topographic Database data layers in ArcMap. The coordinate system has to be
changed into KKJ3 before it can be used. Changing the coordinate system causes a 40-
metre positional accuracy error that has to be corrected.

The dispersion model is added to ArcMap as a separate layer. The ‘select by location’
tool can be used to select Digiroad data which are located inside the risk area. The
selected features are exported as a shape file to a home directory and imported to an
individual Personal Geodatabase file for road. A similar process is also implemented in
the case of the Kuusankoski building system data. The difference is an indivisual
personal Geodatabase file is created also for buildings.

3.2.2 Manual processing

The Kuusankoski building information system data have information about the purposes
for which buildings are used and these data can be grouped into several categories. Table
7 shows the information about groups of buildings and the periods of time during which
there are people inside the buildings. Some buildings, such as churches, bomb shelters,
and places for hobbies and leisure, are ignored in this project because of the difficulties of
modelling and the small population size.

3.3 Method

3.3.1 Spatio-temporal model and model type

Most GIS data describe reality in a static way. In this research project, all the data that
have been mentioned are static GIS data, which means there is no time attribute included.
The goal of this research project is to create a spatio-temporal dynamic population model
to calculate how many people there are inside a risk area at a certain time. The model
should be usable in every Finnish municipality.

38
Groups Description Time (estimated time
when there are people
inside)

Residential buildings It includes single-family houses, Morning, night, and


row houses, and flatblocks weekends
Old people’s homes Old people who cannot take care of All the time
themselves
Office buildings Social affairs, industrial Working hours
production, fire stations
Schools Elementary schools, junior/middle Working hours
schools and secondary schools
Day care centres For children under 7 years old Working hours
Restaurants and bars For food and night life Lunchtime, dinnertime
Weekends, evenings and
nights
Shops Working hours
Hospitals and health care All the time
centres
Hotels Morning and night
Industrial buildings, Warehouses, power plants, fire Working hours
factories stations, and factory buildings.

Table 7 Buildings are grouped according to their purpose of use.

An object-oriented spatio-temporal model is used for implementing this research project.


The basic idea of an object-oriented spatio-temporal model is that the real world is
modelled with the help of individual spatio-temporal atoms, which have a temporal
dimension orthogonal to 2D space. Each of these spatio-temporal atoms is the biggest
homogeneous unit that can store specific properties in space and time. Therefore, the
model can also store the changes in both temporal and spatial dimensions. In an object-
oriented model, no relationship or gradual changes between different atoms can be
recorded. It is a discrete structure that can only represent sudden changes [Nadi &
Delavar, 2008].

39
On the other hand, this spatio-temporal model is also a kind of knowledge-based model.
For instance, when the population size for office buildings is being estimated, a
parameter which shows how many square metres one worker uses has to be defined by
the user. The parameter is defined on the basis of the user’s knowledge.

This model can also be defined as a simulation model because it simulates reality by
using the Java programming language with the help of ArcEngine API. This model is
also called a deterministic model because similar input always produces similar output.
There is no statistical distribution analysed for the input data.

3.3.2 Population size estimation methods

An object-oriented spatio-temporal model is used for implementing this project.


Population size is estimated on the basis of man-made objects in the real world. Real-
world objects such as buildings and roads are divided into different categories, and each
category is one spatio-temporal atom. For the case of Kuusankoski, 11 spatio-temporal
atoms are defined, and they are: roads, office buildings, old people’s homes, daycare
centres, residential buildings, shops, hospitals, hotels, schools, industrial buildings, and
restaurants and bars. For each spatio-temporal atom, the population size changes
individually according to time. The following sections introduce population size
estimation methods for these 11 spatio-temporal atoms.

3.3.2.1 Roads and residential buildings

The Digiroad data contain information about how many people pass over one road
segment in a second, which is called the population density. The roads that are located
inside the risk area are saved in an individual Personal Geodatabase. The average number
of people on the road network inside the risk area is calculated by summing together the
population density values of different road segments.

40
In the Kuusankoski base register data, there is information about how many people use a
building as their home address. Therefore, the method mentioned above can also be used
to estimate the population size for residential buildings.

3.3.2.2 Office buildings, old people’s homes, day care centres, restaurants, and
bars

For office buildings, old people’s homes, day care centres, and restaurants, the maximum
amount of people inside the building can be estimated on the basis of the total floor area
of the building divided by the average floor area that one person uses. It is assumed that
the average floor area used by one person is a constant. In the Kuusankoski building
information system data, there is an attribute value representing the floor area of the
building. Therefore, the estimated maximum amount of people inside a building can be
calculated according to the formula below:

Amount of people = Total floor area of the building / Average floor area used by one
person

(1). Population size estimation method for office buildings

The floor area used by one person is estimated on the basis of the user’s knowledge.

3.3.2.3 Hospitals, schools, hotels, and industrial buildings

Formula 1 is not suitable for estimating the population size for hospitals, schools, hotels,
and industrial buildings. For these buildings, the relationship between the population size
and the floor area is not linear. For instance, some industrial buildings are used for
storage and there are no people inside them. Instead of formula 1 being used, another
estimation method is developed.

The ArcGIS address locator can be used to find buildings’ addresses by entering their X
and Y coordinates into ArcMap. After that, an organisation’s name can be defined
according to its address. The population size for the organisation can be found through
the organisation’s homepage. This method might be time-consuming, but it works for

41
most Finnish cities because there will not be too many hospitals, schools, hotels, or
industrial buildings located inside the risk area.

3.3.2.4 Shops

There is a linear relationship between the floor area of shops and the estimated number of
customers. But Formula 1 cannot be used in this case because shops also have storage
space, in which nobody stays. In a building´s individual Personal Geodatabase file, the
floor area for shops can be found and it varies from 200 square metres to 4000 square
metres. Shops can be divided into four types according to their floor area. Table 8 shows
the shop types and their corresponding floor area and number of customers.

Shop type Floor area Estimated number of customers


Small food shop 200-500 40
Small supermarket 700-2000 130
Small shopping centre 2000-4000 300
Big shopping centre 4000- 500

Table 8 Shop types, floor area, and estimated number of customers.

3.3.3 Modelling the time

Time can be modelled as a percentage of the maximum, minimum, or average size of


population estimated by the methods introduced in Section 3.3.2. For instance, the
average amount of people travelling on a selected road is 500 on weekdays between 0700
and 1000.This is only the average population density; in reality the number is greater
because at that time most people are travelling to work. So the percentage of the
population size assigned for this time period can be 200%. It is also called the weight of
time; in this case the weight is 2. The estimated population size for the selected road is
500 times 2, which gives a result of 1000. Table 9 provides information about the
classification of the time and weight of time for the different types of buildings and roads.
The number in the first row describes the building type and road. The meaning of the
numbers is illustrated below.

42
They are: (1) Residential buildings, (2). Hospitals, (3). Hotels, (4). Old people’s homes,
(5). Office buildings, (6). Schools,(7). Day care centres, (8). Restaurants and bars,(9).
Shops, (10). Roads, and (11). Industrial buildings.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Weekday 1/3 1/2 2/3 1 2/3 2/3 2/3 1/5 0 3 2/3
7-10
Weekday 1/10 1 1/3 2/3 1 2/3 1 1/3 1/3 1 1
10-16
Weekday 2/3 2/3 2/3 2/3 0 0 0 2/3 1 3 0
16-19
Weekday 1 2/3 1 1 0 0 0 1/3 1/3 1/2 0
19-22
Weekday 1 1/3 1 1 0 0 0 1/3 0 1/2 0
22-07
Fri & Sat 2/3 1/3 2/3 1 0 0 0 2/3 0 1/2 0
22-04
Sat 9-11 2/3 2/3 1/3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
Sat 1/3 1/3 1/3 2/3 0 0 0 2/3 1 1 0
11-17
Sat 2/3 2/3 1/3 2/3 0 0 0 2/3 0 2 0
17-22
Sat 1 1/3 2/3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
04-09
Sun 1 2/3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1/3 0
09-11
Sun 2/3 2/3 1/3 2/3 0 0 0 1/3 0 1 0
11-17
Sun 1 2/3 1 1 0 0 0 1/5 0 1/3 0
17-22
Sun 1 1/3 1 1 0 0 0 1/5 0 1/3 0
22-09
Vappu 1/3 2/3 1/3 2/3 0 0 0 2/3 0 2 0
Juhannus 2/3 1/3 1/3 2/3 0 0 0 1/3 0 2 0
Joulu 2/3 1/3 1 1/3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

Table 9 Percentage of size of population for buildings and roads.

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3.3.4 Programming language

The Java programming language, with the help of ArcEngine 9.1 API, is used to
implement this project. Java was chosen as the programming language because the
spatio-temporal population model is an object-oriented model and Java is an object-
oriented programming language. The similarity between them brings many advantages
during the implementation process. An object is a pattern of a class. Every class describes
a characteristic that the object has. For instance, using Java, a graphical user interface
could be created and saved as one class (object). In this class, many functionalities can be
added to the graphical user interface, such as ‘load map’, ‘set time’, or ‘create report’,
and they can be treated as characteristics of an object (graphical user interface object).
Each spatio-temporal atom is programmed as a separate class.

3.3.5 Hardware and software

The application is implemented in a computer with the Microsoft Windows XP operating


system. It has Intel(R) Cour ™ 2 CPU 6600 @ 2.40GHz, and 300GB of RAM. The
computer has Java (version JRE 1.6), Netbeans IDE 6.1, ArcGIS, and ArcEngine 9.1
installed. The ESRI personal geodatabase is used for storing the data.

44
4 Results

Figure 12 shows the user interface of the spatio-temporal population model software. The
software is programmed using the Java programming language with the help of
ArcEngine API. In the upper part of the window, there is a list of all the useful tools that
help the user to interact with the map.

Figure 12 User interface.

45
Figure 13 Meaning of Tools.

After the user has loaded the map, they can turn different map layers on or off by clicking
the on/off check box. Figure 12 shows the road and building layer check boxes turned on.
Figure 14 shows the road and building layer check boxes turned off. Therefore, the road
and building layers are not shown on the map. The ‘legend’ button is used to show the
legend of the selected layer.

46
Figure 14 Road and building layers are turned on.

The buffer layer was produced by the Finnish Meteorological Institute. It includes four
zones. The smallest zone has the highest level of pollution. Figure 15 shows the buffer
layer with a red circle. The user can set the time by selecting a suitable time period in the
‘Set Time’ combo box. The time is specified in hours so the user can easily define which
time category the accident belongs to.

47
Figure 15 Buffer layer is shown on the map. User can select time in Set Time combo box.

After the buffer layer check box has been ticked, the accident time is selected and the
user can click the ‘Analysis’ button to start analysing. Figure 16 shows that a new
window, ‘Buffer Analysis Results’, pops up after the user has clicked the ‘Analysis’
button. It shows all the spatio-temporal atoms defined in Section 3.3.2. For each atom, a
different estimation method is used for estimating the population size (see Section 3.3.2).
The user can click the ‘show result’ button to estimate the population size for the
corresponding spatio-temporal atom.

48
Figure 16 shows that the estimation of population size on a selected road is 3120 on
weekdays from 0700 to 1000. It uses the method introduced in Section 3.3.2.1.

Figure 16 Analysis function.

The population size for an office building is estimated on the basis of the method
introduced in Section 3.3.2.2. Figure 17 shows that after the user has clicked on the office
building’s ‘show result’ button, a dialog box pops up which shows the total floor area of
the selected office building. In the dialog box, the user can set a parameter which is used
to define how many square metres one worker uses. The result, which is called ‘count
people’, is calculated by using the total floor area of the selected building divided by the
parameter that the user has set. A similar user interface and method are also used for old
people’s homes, day care centres, restaurants, and bars.

49
Figure 17 Estimating population size for an office building.

For hospitals, hotels, schools, industrial buildings, restaurants, and bars, the estimated
population size for the corresponding buildings will appear in the corresponding text field
after the user clicks on each ‘show result’ button. The method which was introduced in
Section 3.3.2.3 is used.

For shops, the method which was introduced in Section 3.3.2.4 is applied. The pseudo-
code is illustrated below.

Building floor area a;


Estimated population size b;
If (a >= 200 and a <= 500){
b = 40;
}
If (a>=700 and a<= 2000){
b= 130;

50
}
If (a>= 2000 and a<= 4000){
b=300;
}
If (a>=4000){
b= 500
}

The time can be modelled as a percentage of the maximum, minimum, or average size of
the population estimated by the methods introduced in Section 3.3.2.Figure 16 shows that
when the program is executed, the output window prints out the estimation of the
population size on the selected road as 1040. But the result appears in the road text field
is 3120. The time is assigned a weight of 3, so 1040 times 3 equals 3120. The pseudo-
code is illustrated below:

Estimated population size b;


Estimated maximum population size of selected shop is a;
SetTimeSelection select;
If (select =”Weekday 7to10”){
a = 0;
shopTextField.setText(String.ValueOf(a));
}
If (select = ”WeekDay 10to16”){
a= a/3
shopTextField.setText(String.ValueOf(a));

}
....

51
Figure 18 shows the result of the analysis: the estimated population size inside the risk
area is 3164. The user can use the ‘report’ button to create a text file of the result of the
analysis. The ‘save’ button is used to save the report.

Figure 18 Analysis results.

52
5 Alternative Implementation

5.1 System architecture

An alternative way of implementing this research project is to use a web-based


architecture. It uses a script language with Google Map API. Google Map API allows
users to embed Google Maps in their own web pages. The script language was developed
by Netscape to enable web authors to design interactive web applications. For example,
Javascript can interact with the HTML source code, which enables users to develop their
website with dynamic content [Wikipedia, 2009].

For example, in the event of a chemical leakage in Kuusankoski, a spatio-temporal


population model web page has to be created at the beginning. All the data (Kuusankoski
base register data and Digiroad data) are imported to a database management system,
such as Postgre SQL. The Google map of the Kuusankoski region can be embedded in
the web page. The user can draw the buffer layer on top of the Google map of
Kuusankoski, and the location of the polygon can be defined using Google Map API. It
will give the polygon a location in longitude and latitude, but much software can be
found to transform the longitude and latitude into KKJ X and Y coordinates.
The data can be accessed via a server-side script. A listener is added to the map so that
when the user clicks ‘listener’, for example by means of some button in the user interface,
whenever the map view changes, an AJAX (asynchronous JavaScript and XML) request
is sent with the map’s span to the server-side script to get the updated data. It means the
system can send a query to the database in a script language in order to find all the
objects, such as buildings and roads, which are located inside the buffer layer. The
estimation methods which were introduced in Section 3.3.2 can also be used here, the
only difference being that it is a web-based application, and it is coded in a script
language. The user can assess the model through a web browser. Figure 19 shows an
example of a web-based implementation for this research project.

53
Figure 19 Web-based architecture.

5.2 Advantages and drawbacks

A web-based application has many advantages. All the software used for implementing
this architecture is open source. Therefore it is free and there are no licensing or version
problems. The web-based application is very easy to use. The user can use the model by
visiting the model’s website. On the other hand, Google map is a very nice background
map. In the Helsinki region, Google map has very high resolution and very good satellite
images.

A web-based application also has drawbacks. Google map has a longitude and latitude
coordinate system, which is not compatible with the other data (KKJ coordinate system).
A transformation is needed between these two coordinate systems. The quality of the
Google map of Kuusankoski is very poor. It is not good to have it as a background map.
The Google map also has licence limitations. For instance, the model must be freely
accessible to end users if the free Google map API is used [Google, 2009].

54
6 Discussion and Conclusions

In this research project, a spatio-temporal population model was built and simulated with
the Java programming language and ArcEngine API. The model is flexible, because most
of the estimation methods are based on the user’s knowledge. The user can update his/her
knowledge frequently in order to produce more accurate results. The model also gives
reasonably accurate results. Each spatio-temporal atom (see Section 3.3.2) is modelled
individually according to the character of the atom. Especially for industrial buildings,
hospitals, schools, and hotels, the population size information comes from the web pages
of the organisation concerned, which have information with a very high level of accuracy.
As a result, the model will produce a text file, which can easily be adapted to other
systems.

One professional worker is needed to process the data and set up the software
environment before the model can be used. He/she should be familiar with the Java
programming language and basic GIS tools, such as ArcGIS and ArcEngine API. Some
real-world objects are ignored in this model, such as places for hobbies and leisure, fire
stations, police stations, sports centres etc. The reason is lack of data, and in some cases
the rather small population size inside these buildings. In the future, the model could be
improved by also including an estimation of the population size for these buildings.

There are no data available for modelling forests, water regions, and air planes in this
project. This will be added to the future development list and implemented in the next
version. Because of the time limitation, only a text file format result is achieved. With a
little more effort, a shape file could also be produced as an output of the model. Buildings
and roads were selected manually by using ArcMap selection with the ‘location’ tool. In
the future it will also be possible to add a selection function to the model so that the
selection can be done automatically after the buffer layer has been turned on.

55
In this project, the city of Kuusankoski was chosen as the research area. In the future, this
kind of population model can also be used worldwide. For instance, the UHHA project
has planned to set up an earthquake alarm system on the island of Rhodes in Greece. The
population model can be used to estimate the amount of Finnish tourists located inside
the earthquake region. The work is almost done. More detailed information can be found
in the appendix.

56
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63
8 Appendix

Spatio-Temporal Population Model for


Earthquake Warning System

8.1 Objective

The goal of this research project is to create a prototype of a spatio-temporal population


model which can be used to estimate the amount of Finnish tourists located inside the
earthquake region on Rhodes, Greece. The users of this model could be travel agency
employees who have knowledge about flights to Rhodes, hotels, and places on Rhodes
that are interesting for tourists to visit. There are several organisations involved in this
project: VTT, Helsinki University, Helsinki University of Technology, Tjareborg, and
AurinkoMatkat.

64
8.2 Data and software

Because of the time limitation, no precise data are used for implementing this research
project. The population size is estimated on the basis of the user’s knowledge. VMAP0 is
used as a background map.

The software used for implementing this research project is Java, ArcEngine, Netbean
IDE, and ArcGIS.

8.3 Method

The total amount of Finnish tourists on Rhodes is estimated by the number of flights that
fly to Rhodes every week multiplied by the number of seats on the aeroplanes.

The time is divided into the following categories: 0400 to 1000, 1000 to 1200, 1200 to
1400, 1400 to 1700, 1700 to 1900, 1900 to 2200, and 2200 to 0400. Each category is
modelled individually, which means that different places are selected.

The places where Finnish tourists may stay during those times are: hotels, beaches,
restaurants, and excursion places. The information on the location of those places can be
found from Greek traveling.

65
Figure 20 Method for estimating numbers of Finns at different times.

8.4 Results

Figure 21 shows the user interface of the spatio-temporal population model software. The
application is programmed using the Java programming language with the help of
ArcEngine API. In the upper part of the window, there is a list of all the useful tools that
help the user to interact with the map.

66
Figure 21 User interface.

Figure 22 List of tools.

67
After the user has loaded the map, they can turn different map layers on or off by clicking
the ‘on/off’ tick in the appropriate check box. Figure 23 shows the road layer check boxes
turned on. Therefore, roads are shown on the map.

Figure 23 Road layer is turned on.

Figure 24 shows road and building layer check boxes turned on, and the user can click
on a building button to show the legend.

68
Figure 24 Building layer turned on, click building button to show legend.

Figure 25 shows airport and buffer layer check boxes are turned on.

Figure 25 Airport and buffer layer are shown on the map.

69
Figure 26 shows the user can select the time by using the ‘Set Time’ combo box.

Figure 26 Select time by using the ‘Select Time’ combo box.

The total amount of Finnish tourists on Rhodes is estimated by the number of flights that
fly to Rhodes per week multiplied by the number of seats on the aeroplanes. When the
user clicks the ‘Amount of Finns’ button, a dialog box will pop up; this is shown in
Figure 27.

70
Figure 27 Estimated total amount of Finns on Rhodes.

Figure 28 shows the population estimation method for the time between 0400 and 1000.
At that time, most people are inside their hotels. Therefore, only hotels are selected. The
travel agencies should have information about the Finnish tourist accommodation register.
The user can type the number (how many Finns are staying in the relevant hotel) in the
text field.

71
Figure 28 Population estimation method for time 0400 to 1000.

Figure 29 shows the population estimation method for the time between 1000 and 1200.
At that time, most people are inside their hotels or have gone to the beach. Some people
will also have gone on excursions.

72
Figure 29 Population estimation method for time 1000 to 1200.

Figure 30 shows the population estimation method for the time between 1200 and 1400.
It is lunchtime, so most people will have gone to a restaurant. Some people will also have
gone on an excursion or are on the beach.

73
Figure 30 Population estimation method for time 1200 to 1400.

Figure 31 shows the population estimation method for the time between 1400 and 1700.
At that time, most people are inside their hotels or on the beach. Some people will also
have gone on excursions.

74
Figure 31 Population estimation method for time 1400 to 1700.

Figure 32 shows the population estimation method for the time between 1700 and 1900.
It is dinner time, so most people will have gone to a restaurant. Some people will also
have gone on an excursion or be on the beach.

75
Figure 32 Population estimation method for time 1700 to 1900.

Figure 33 shows the population estimation method for the time between 1900 and
2200.Most Finnish people got to beaches or excursion place. Some people also stay
inside hotel.Therefore, hotel, excusion place and beaches are selected.

76
Figure 33 Population estimation method for time 1900 to 2200.

Figure 34 shows the population estimation method for the time between 2200 and 0400.
It is lunch time, so most people go to restaurants. Some people also go to excursion or
stay beside beaches.

77
Figure 34 Population estimation method for time 2200 to 0400.

8.5 Result format

The model can produce a text file as a result.

78

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