Volume 3 † Number 2 † June 2010 10.

1093/biohorizons/hzq013
Advance Access publication 12 April 2010
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Review
The case for an ecosystem service approach

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to decision-making: an overview
Joseph Hancock*
School of Biology, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9TS, UK.
* Corresponding author: 7 Cluny Avenue, Edinburgh EH10 4RN, UK. Tel: þ44 1314472555. Email: Joseph.hancock@googlemail.com

Supervisor: Professor Thomas R. Meagher, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, Fife KY16 9TS, UK.

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The Earth’s ecosystems supply human society with a stream of services, the sustained delivery of which remains crucial to our health,
economic prosperity and personal and national security. Ecosystem services provide these benefits across a range of geographical scales
(local, regional and global) and to many different groups (individuals, businesses and governments). In spite of this, ecosystem services
are continually underrepresented and undervalued within decision-making situations. As a result, the capacity of ecosystems to supply a
number of services—including the supply of food and freshwater, the regulation of disease and protection from natural hazards—has
been degraded worldwide, with serious consequences for human wellbeing. The actions of man are unwittingly depleting the planet’s
natural capital and putting such strain on the environment that the capacity of Earth’s ecosystems to support future generations can no
longer be taken for granted. To address this we need a new approach to the way that decisions are made at the interface of the environ-
ment and society—one where the benefits and services provided by ecosystems are understood, evaluated and appropriately rep-
resented within the decision-making arena. By drawing attention to the failures and consequences of past and present attitudes in
decision-making and resource management, this article frames a way forward to help avoid such problems in the future. Specifically,
it outlines the rationale behind the need for an ecosystem service approach to decision-making and highlights some of the research
needs that will help in selecting policies that sustain ecosystem services.

Key words: ecosystem services, decision-making, millennium ecosystem assessment, ecosystem service approach.

Submitted on 16 October 2009; accepted on 10 March 2010

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Introduction marketable goods such as timber, food, fibre and fuels. As

the human population doubled from 3 to 6 billion and the
All people depend upon the environment and the services global economy increased more than 6-fold between 1960
provided by its ecosystems. Ecosystems provide such essential and the year 2000 there was a massive increase in demand
requirements as the food we eat, the water we drink and the for these services.2, 3 Man responded by altering ecosystems
air we breathe. They also supply a number of less obvious to enhance their productive capacity.4 Farms replaced forests
but equally critical services that underpin the health and and savannas, rivers were diverted to irrigate fields, fresh-
prosperity of human society. For example: wetlands mitigate water aquifers were utilized and new technological advances
the effects of floods by storing water during heavy rains and made it possible for fishing fleets to harvest ever-greater pro-
act as natural filters by capturing and breaking down pollu- portions of global fish stocks.1 Changes like these have sup-
tants; and biogeochemical processes such as soil formation ported the unparalleled growth and progress of the human
and the cycling of nutrients underpin the functioning of all population over the last two centuries.5 On average,
ecosystems and make the planet fit for human habitation.1 incomes have grown, individuals live longer, and more
In recent years humans have made unparalleled changes to people are better nourished than has ever been the case.1
the world’s ecosystems, driven mainly to meet increased However, these changes have come at a cost. Modifying eco-
demands for particular ecosystem services that provide systems to enhance the supply of one particular service,
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# The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. 188
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typically a provisioning service such as food production, of the ecosystem service approach, and provide a roadmap
often degrades the capacity of the environment to provide for future development of the ecosystem service approach
a range of other services. as a policy and decision-making tool.
The crucial tradeoffs between ecosystem services are often
ignored when decisions are made about how to manage
environmental assets.6 Mangroves, for example, have been
cleared to harvest timber and free up habitat for aquaculture,
Ecosystem change and the state

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with the loss of critical services such as coastal storm protec- of ecosystem service supply
tion, carbon storage, spawning and nursery habitat for a The most comprehensive evaluation ever undertaken of
variety of species, as well as a reduction in water quality as the state and trends of the world’s ecosystems and their
a result of aquacultural pollution.7 Similarly, the clearing capacity to support human wellbeing, the MA,1 found that
of rainforests for cropland and the harvest of timber results 15 of the 24 ecosystem services that it assessed globally
in the loss of services including the regulation of water were being degraded and used in ways that could not be sus-
balance and river flow, protection from soil erosion and tained.16 This scientific effort led by the United Nations
landslides, carbon sequestration, local climate regulation, involved the work of over 1300 experts from 96 countries
control of fire regimes and protection against the spread of and lasted for 4 years. This assessment classified ecosystem
pests and disease.8, 9 By overlooking the connections services in the following four broad categories:
between ecosystem services and society’s overall reliance
upon their supply, many decision-makers threaten the sus- † Provisioning services: these provide the raw materials that
tainability and overall success of their development are consumed or used directly by humans such as food,
decisions.10 fibre and timber.
The ecosystem service approach to decision-making puts † Regulating services: the benefits obtained from the regu-
ecosystem services at the centre of discussions on develop- lation of ecosystem processes, including water filtration
ment and natural resource management. Although still in and purification, the regulation of disease, erosion
its infancy, this approach offers hope by providing decision- control and pollination.
makers with a way to capture the two-way relationship † Cultural services: the non-material benefits that people
between human wellbeing and the services supplied by eco- obtain from ecosystems such as recreation, spiritual
systems. In doing so it encourages decision-makers to con- enrichment and aesthetic experiences.
sider society’s dependence upon ecosystem services and to † Supporting services: the services that are necessary for the
examine the impact of different decisions on the future production of all other ecosystems services, including soil
supply of the whole range of ecosystem services. formation, nutrient cycling, oxygen production and
Various efforts are generating momentum towards an eco- photosynthesis.
system service approach to decision-making, such as the
Natural Capital Project on the economic valuation of ecosys- The MA evaluated 24 ecosystem services (Table 1). It found
tem services,11 the United Nations Environment Programme that 15 were degraded or used in an unsustainable manner,
(UNEP) on the creation of ecosystem service markets,12 the and that only four were in an enhanced state.16 Of these
World Wildlife Federation on payments,13 the UNEP enhanced services three were provisioning services (livestock,
World Conservation Monitoring Centre on indicators of crops and aquacultural production). The enhancement of
service provision14 and the World Resources Institute on these particular services reflects global efforts to modify eco-
mainstreaming understanding of ecosystem services.15 systems to maximize food production in order to meet
However, we are still someway off the paradigm shift growing global demands.17
needed to safeguard the future of ecosystems and the The MA found that over the past 50 years, humans have
supply of their services. This article outlines the underlying altered ecosystems at a greater rate and more extensively
principles behind the need for an ecosystem service approach than at any comparable period of time in the history of
to decision-making, and adds its voice to a growing number mankind.16 The following examples, taken from the MA
of those calling for change from the status quo. It builds and a variety of other sources, illustrate the scale of the
upon the foundations laid by the United Nations recent anthropogenic transformation of the world’s
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), synthesizing its ecosystems.
key findings and presents a new approach to decision-making
by highlighting the central role and importance of ecosystem † The global area of mangrove habitat and coral reefs has
services as the link between human systems and the environ- fallen by 35% and 20%, respectively, since 1980.18 The
ment. The following sections summarize the findings of the loss of these habitats has resulted in a reduction in their
MA with regard to ecosystem services, outline case studies capacity to provide critical services such as coastal storm
that highlight successful as well as unsuccessful integration protection.16, 19

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Table 1. The state of ecosystem services globally

Ecosystem services Degraded Mixed condition Enhanced

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Provisioning Freshwater Timber Livestock
Capture fisheries Fibre Crops
Wild foods Aquaculture

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Wood fuel
Genetic resources
Biochemicals
Regulating Water purification and waste treatment Water regulation Carbon sequestration
Air quality regulation Disease regulation
Regional and local climate regulation
Erosion regulation
Pest regulation
Natural hazard regulation
Pollination
Cultural Spiritual and religious values Recreation and ecotourism
Aesthetic values

Adapted from the MA.16

† More land was converted into cropland in the 30 years The consequences of ecosystem
between 1950 and 1980 than in the 150 years between
1700 and 1850.16 Currently, approximately 24% of
change for human society
Earth’s land area has been converted into land for The MA highlighted the continued degradation of the
growing crops or rearing livestock.20 world’s ecosystems and services as a significant barrier to
† After an 8-fold increase in the global consumption of achieving the Millennium Development Goals of ensuring
nitrogen-based fertilizers between 1960 and 2003, human environmental sustainability and reducing global poverty,
activities currently produce more biologically available hunger and disease.20 It reported that even with the progress
(reactive) nitrogen than is produced by all natural processes achieved by increasing the supply and utilization of some
combined.21, 22 As much as 50% of nitrogen-based fertili- ecosystem services, global levels of poverty remain high
zer applications are lost to the wider environment, with and imbalances in access to ecosystem services are
severe consequences such as nutrient loading within fresh- growing.16 Moreover, the MA found that the costs of ecosys-
water and coastal systems leading to algal blooms that tem service degradation are being consistently and dispro-
strip oxygen from the water and kill off other aquatic life.23 portionately felt by the poor, contribute to the widening of
† Water withdrawals from rivers and lakes for irrigation, social inequalities and are often the primary factor causing
industrial and household use have doubled since the poverty and sparking social conflicts.16
1960s, with far-reaching consequences for the accessibility Many of the world’s ecosystems are close to reaching
and flow of freshwater sources in a number of regions.1 In ecological thresholds (‘tipping points’) which, if breached,
the same period the quantity of water impounded by dams trigger rapid and possibly irreversible changes to the
has quadrupled, and is now estimated to be some three to supply of ecosystem services with serious consequences for
six times greater than the amount held by natural river human wellbeing.16, 27 These changes could include
channels worldwide.24 As a result, wetlands have been sudden shifts in regional climate, abrupt alterations of
lost along with their flood prevention and water filtration water quality, the uncontrolled spread of disease or the
services, while tens of millions of people have been dis- collapse of fisheries.
placed and many more affected as a result of the loss of The following sections explain, in sectoral terms, the ways
habitat and resources that their livelihoods depend in which ecosystem change and the loss of ecosystem services
upon.25 can impact upon human society.
† Currently 25% of commercially important fisheries
are over-exploited.26 Global landings of fish peaked in Health
the 1980s but are now in decline due to stock shortages There is a strong connection between human health and the
at a time when the demand for fish has never been as condition of the Earth’s ecosystems. For the world’s poorest
great.26 societies, the preservation of functioning ecosystems is often

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a matter of life and death. People starve when fisheries col- production) are often far lower than the values of non-
lapse and outbreaks of cholera spread when the wetlands marketed services (such as pollination and watershed protec-
that filter waste and purify water supplies are degraded.28 tion) that are commonly overlooked when decisions are
People in developed nations are also affected by the degra- made about how best to manage environmental assets. For
dation of the world’s ecosystems. For example atmospheric instance, with a discount rate of 6% over 30 years, the
and water pollution have been linked to increases in total economic value of intact mangrove forests was found
cancer, heart disease, blue-baby syndrome, asthma and a to be 72% greater than that of mangroves that had been con-

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range of other respiratory problems;16 whilst a warming of verted for use in aquaculture.7 The lower total economic
the global climate is extending the geographic range of value of the converted mangrove forests reflected the loss
disease carriers such as ticks and mosquitoes, introducing of sustainably harvested timber and non-timber forest pro-
pathogens into naive environments and fuelling the spread ducts, tourism and aesthetic benefits, the capacity to
of infectious diseases across the planet.29 In addition to pro- capture carbon, a source of dissolved oceanic carbon,
visioning or regulating services, changes to the supply of cul- revenue from offshore fisheries and coastal protection from
tural services can also have a strong impact on health storms. The MA estimated that across habitats, the values
through their influence on spiritual, aesthetic, inspirational associated with marketable ecosystems services account for
and recreational opportunities, which in turn impact upon less than 33% of the total economic value of ecosystems
physical and emotional health and wellbeing.30 when the values of non-marketed services are included.16

Economy Security
The world’s economies depend upon the supply of certain pro- The supply of ecosystem services such as food, freshwater,
ducts such as timber, fish, meat and crops. When the ecosys- defence against natural hazards and the regulation of
tems that supply these products collapse, the damage to the disease underpin our personal and national security.20
world’s economies is clear to see. For example, when the When these services are eroded social order and stability dis-
stocks of North Atlantic cod plummeted in the early 1990s integrate alongside them, as was demonstrated in the after-
due to decades of overfishing, the fallout included the loss of math of the 2005 Gulf hurricanes.34, 35 The MA warns
tens of thousands of jobs and cost over $2 billion (USA) in that human activities will increase the likelihood of natural
income support and retraining payouts.16 The Gulf of disasters such as floods, wildfires and storms, unless
Mexico, at present home to the largest fishery in the USA measures are taken to protect ecosystems and lessen societal
(both commercial and recreational), is currently threatened vulnerabilities by making better informed development
by agricultural nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizer runoff decisions.1, 36, 37 For example, the removal of wetlands
flowing into the Gulf from the Mississippi river. These fertili- through leveeing, draining and canalization reduces natural
zers stimulate seasonal algal blooms that strip the water of flood storage capacity by up to 80% and increases the prob-
oxygen creating a dead zone of up to 21 000 square kilometres ability, duration and severity of flood events.16
each year in which very little marine life can persist.31 The depletion of natural resources can also function as a
The reduction in the supply of an ecosystem service can be catalyst for war and other confrontations.38 Conflicts invol-
interpreted as the loss of a capital asset.16 However, ecosys- ving access to provisioning services like food or freshwater
tem services usually do not appear on decision-making supplies can be found in many parts of the world, bringing
balance sheets because traditional accounting systems do severe security risks to these regions. For example, in the
not include measures of resource depletion or the erosion Middle East freshwater supplies are being used faster than
of ecosystem services. Many services such as the purification they are being replenished. The scarcity of freshwater
of water supplies, regulation of floods or supply of aesthetic supplies in this region often serves to amplify conflicts,
benefits are not generally seen as market goods. As a result, adding to the area’s political instability.1, 39
the benefits that these services supply to society are largely
unrecorded. Thus, if a nation cuts down all of its forests
and exhausted its fish stocks, this would show up as a posi-
The bottom line
tive gain in gross domestic product (GDP), although the The threats posed by ecosystem collapse may often appear
nation has lost capital assets on which its future wellbeing greater in countries that are resource poor. However, the
and wealth depended. If the indices of the wealth of subsequent by-products such as political instability, disease
nations, such as GDP, included estimates of the losses and the migration of refugees can readily span borders.36
related to the depletion of environmental assets, this would The degradation of ecosystems and their services increases
provide a much more balanced assessment of the true risks to public health, and undermines both security and
wealth of nations.32 economic stability while threatening the overall ability to
Balmford et al.33 reported that the values associated with sustainably support human society and achieve future devel-
marketable ecosystem services (such as timber and food opment goals.40

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The findings laid out by the MA challenge the logic behind with over 400 000 hectares of land converted each year.44
the way that ecosystems and their services are valued within However, this was not always the case.
decision-making. The deterioration of ecosystems, increased In the past, the oasis of Minqin County acted as a barrier
risks from ecosystem collapse and the worsening of to the eastward expansion of the Tengger and Badain Jaran
poverty—in particular for resource dependent and poor deserts.45 Early in the 1950s, a national plan aimed at
rural societies41—are all rooted within the choices that we increasing food production was implemented by Chairman
make about which development paths and policies to pursue. Mao. This plan led to the widespread cultivation of large

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areas of available land with deforestation, wetland recla-
mation and irrigation projects spreading across the country.
Ecosystem services as the link However, the resulting consequences for a number of ecosys-
between environment and tem services, including the maintenance of the water table by
development forest ecosystems, have been ruinous. Minqin County’s lakes
have dried up and the oasis is being gradually engulfed by
In the past, development goals and environmental management desert sands, nearby reservoirs are waterless and the remain-
objectives have often been considered in isolation or even in ing supplies of groundwater are predicted to dry up in 15– 17
opposition to each other. The two topics are conventionally years.46 The overuse of groundwater resources and the dis-
considered within separate academic fields, different govern- ruption of natural channels and forests that regulate hydrolo-
ment offices and as a result are often managed in isolation gical flows in the region have resulted in the loss of ecosystem
and by different laws and policies.42 This needs to change. services such as soil formation, with severe health, economic
Instead, we need a framework that unites issues of the environ- and security consequences as a result. Severe storms now
ment and development, enabling decision-makers to view the batter Beijing with half a million tonnes of sand each year
two in unison, extending thinking beyond how development causing serious health problems, while dust clouds reach as
affects the environment, to incorporate an understanding of far as Korea, Japan and the west coast of North America.
how development in fact depends upon the environment. The Chinese government has already spent $9 billion (US)
Development goals might be focused on, for example, combating the desertification of Minqin County through
generating more electricity, increasing food production or reforestation programmes, the replanting of desert veg-
reducing poverty. In the past, actions to meet these goals etation, decommissioning dams and imposing bans on defor-
have often resulted in the overall degradation of long-term estation and grazing.47, 48 The mounting costs now include
ecosystem service supply.42 For example, the construction financing the relocation of entire villages of ecological
of a dam for electricity production might reduce downstream refuges.49, 50
fish populations, or a regional strategy to develop agriculture Many of the desertification problems facing China today
might lead to deforestation that resulted in floods and soil are a direct result of the short term and singularly focused
erosion. As a result, the success of development goals was decisions made in the 1950s to increase food production.
often undermined when the resulting degradation of ecosys- These problems could have been avoided by taking a more
tem services began to affect those who depend upon the holistic look at the region’s ecosystems, and by considering
environment for their livelihoods and wellbeing.42 all of the services that these ecosystems supply across a
Whether designing a strategy to increase biofuel pro- range of geographical scales and longer term time frames.
duction or drafting a coastal expansion plan, including an Such an approach could have helped to identify ecosystem
awareness of ecosystem services can help to strengthen devel- service-based vulnerabilities and allow decision-makers to
opment decisions. The following case studies demonstrate plan accordingly. For example, a review of Chairman
the importance of this understanding when choosing Mao’s agricultural expansion plan would have highlighted
between different development options. The first example the long-term risks raised by deforestation coupled with
highlights how policies based on narrow sectoral objectives, the diversion of rivers to irrigate fields. A more informed
in place of an integrated ecosystem service approach, can policy could have left some forested areas intact to allow
have unplanned and costly consequences, while the second farmers to benefit from the role that forests play in maintain-
demonstrates how the opportunity for investing in the restor- ing the water table and regulating local climates. Other
ation of natural capital and ecosystem services can provide a measures that could have been implemented to mitigate the
practical and sustainable solution that meets the needs of risks include seasonal grazing bans, monitoring and limiting
development. water withdrawals for use in irrigation and the planting of
legumes to fix nitrogen as part of crop rotation cycles.
Case study: desertification in western China
Desertification currently affects one-third of the world’s Case study: New York city’s watershed filtration services
population.43 Western China is home to the largest conver- New York city’s 9 million inhabitants obtain 90% of their
sion of productive land into desert anywhere in the world, drinking water supplies from the Catskill and Delaware

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watersheds, situated 130 miles outside the city, which filter By failing to take account of the links between ecosystem ser-
water through the ecosystem’s waterways and wetlands.51 vices alongside society’s overall dependence upon their
Altogether, these regions cover an area of around 1500 supply, decision-makers risk irreparably weakening the
square miles and support over 75 000 residents. environmental infrastructure and support systems upon
Historically these watersheds provided very high quality which all societies depend.57 A more sustainable future
drinking water, but by the late 1980s they became degraded requires a different approach to the way decisions are made
through a combination of land conversion, development and about the use of nature’s resources, one where the benefits

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negligence that resulted in sewage and agricultural runoff and services provided by ecosystems are understood, evalu-
polluting the waterways.52 However, instead of building a ated and appropriately represented within the decision-
water filtration plant with estimated construction costs of making arena.
$6– 8 billion (US) and a further $300 million (US) in Although the challenges that we face are substantial, they
annual operating costs,53 the municipal government opted are not insurmountable. The MA began the process, by
to invest in restoring the Catskill and Delaware watersheds. sowing the seeds of change and offering decision-makers a
The cost of restoring the health of these watersheds, and new way of viewing and valuing the world’s ecosystems
therefore their water filtration services, was only $1– and their contribution to human wellbeing. It is now time
1.5 billion (US).51 to build upon this foundation and develop decision-making
This decision amounted to investing in natural capital in frameworks that hold the protection of ecosystem services,
place of physical capital, with the understanding that if cor- and the successful realization of development objectives as
rectly managed the watersheds could provide the same fil- mutually reinforcing sides of the same coin. However, pro-
tration services as the proposed water filtration plant, but gress towards this goal will be limited until we address exist-
for a fraction of the cost.54 The restoration efforts included ing deficits in our understanding of ecosystem services.
rewarding farmers who adopted best management practices,
compensating landowners for restrictions on private develop- The ecosystem service research agenda
ment and subsidizing improvements to septic treatment The fundamental challenge facing scientists and decision-
systems.51, 55 By investing in the restoration of the water- makers is to better understand the dynamic relationships
shed’s capacity to filter water, additional services including between ecosystem services and human wellbeing in relation
carbon capture and flood prevention as well as recreational to the changing influence of multiple direct and indirect
and cultural benefits were provided at no extra cost. The res- drivers. New research is needed that evaluates the suite of
toration of the Catskill and Delaware watersheds has acted feedbacks and processes across biophysical, ecological and
as a model for other municipalities such as Rio de Janeiro social systems in order to better recognize and manage the
in Brazil.56 relationship between human societies and the ecosystems
The municipal government recognized the strong two-way upon which they depend.
connections that link the natural and human systems in Work is still needed to help us understand the ecological
New York City and the surrounding watershed catchment underpinnings of ecosystem service supply. For example,
area. The success of their decision can be attributed to the new research should attempt to quantify the ecosystem
way that they thought holistically in terms of ecosystem man- characteristics (habitats, communities, populations and
agement, assessing the variety of services that are supplied by species composition, etc.) required to supply individual or
the environment, and by acknowledging the importance of groups of ecosystem services. This research could help us
understanding the underlying tradeoffs between these ser- to understand the limits of ecosystem service supply, explor-
vices when it comes to choosing between different uses of ing whether ecological prerequisites—in terms of species
environmental assets. The Catskill watershed example composition or habitat area, etc.—can be identified that
demonstrates that decision-makers can make informed facilitate the provision of particular ecosystem services.
choices that recognize the central role that strong and func- Equally, we must also improve our ability to predict the
tioning ecosystems play in successfully and sustainably presence of ecological ‘tipping points’, and to choose
achieving development goals and supporting human society. between strategies in order to lessen the risks faced by
breaching them. Unfortunately, the way that societies and
the biosphere interact with each other is not something
An ecosystem service approach that can be effectively tested experimentally. However,
decision-makers can learn a great deal from the use of
to decision-making models, by reviewing case studies where sudden and irrevers-
The successful realization of development goals—from con- ible changes have occurred in the past, and by retrospectively
structing an agribusiness export sector, to expanding infra- considering the management options that might have helped
structure or reducing malnourishment and poverty—both to identify and avoid breaching the ‘tipping points’.57 For
depends on and impacts the supply of ecosystem services. example, in the case of fisheries, by implementing a

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continuous monitoring programme of fish stocks and adapt- ecosystems and the services they supply, while continuing
ing catch quotas accordingly, managers are more likely to to use them in order to develop human wellbeing worldwide
enhance the sustainability of fisheries and avoid collapse will be a long-term and spatially complex experiment that
than if fixed annual catch limits are implemented.58 will require continuous innovation and learning as part of
Improving our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and an adaptive approach to research and management. Single
the complex interactions supporting ecosystem service discipline approaches can lead to an incomplete and inaccur-
supply is fundamental to efforts to improve the long-term ate understanding of the issues involved.61 For that reason

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sustainability of environmental management decisions. the gaps in our understanding cannot be filled through unco-
In order to make sustainable and well-informed decisions ordinated research into individual components by isolated
about the use of environmental assets, we need to understand disciplines. Instead, there is a need for an integrated
how various drivers are affecting the supply of ecosystem ser- trans-disciplinary approach to research that successfully
vices, and to build tools that can be used to explore how bridges disciplines, builds on existing strengths and develops
these drivers could alter ecosystem service supply in the new areas of understanding that are necessary for building
future. This research should inform management strategies, resilient socio-ecological systems.
as we learn more about the resilience and resistance of differ-
ent ecosystems to a range of natural and human stresses.
Increasingly, integrated assessment models, which combine Conclusion
ecological, social and economic data are being used to inves-
In order to protect the ecosystems upon which mankind
tigate changes in ecosystem service supply and demand, in
depends, we need to change the way that natural resources
response to varying pressures from drivers across local,
are thought about and managed within decision-making
regional and global scales.59 These models are of limited
areas. We need to understand that development trajectories
use when used in isolation. However, when incorporated
that degrade ecosystems and impair their ability to provide
into scenario-planning exercises, they can provide a quanti-
services can, and often do, create long-term costs to human
tative basis upon which to frame inclusive discussions on
society that greatly exceed short-term, single sector gains.
the importance of various factors in shaping the future.60
Although these costs are generally ignored by conventional
This helps decision-makers to uncover the risks and opportu-
methods of accounting, they are real nonetheless and are
nities presented by alternative options and to minimize any
borne by society at large. A sustainable future is likely to
unintended consequences. Therefore, future efforts should
be one in which individuals and institutions appreciate eco-
focus on developing policy tools and decision support
systems as vital assets, identify the critical role that
systems capable of dealing with the uncertainties associated
healthy, functioning ecosystems play in supporting human
with scenario-planning and assessing resultant trade-offs.
wellbeing and where the many values of ecosystems are rou-
Future research should also identify suitable scales at
tinely included in decision-making situations. These changes
which to study different ecosystem services, which in turn
may well be politically controversial and difficult to deliver
can help inform decision-makers about the most appropriate
but the case for decisive and concerted action has never
scales to target management strategies. In line with this,
been stronger.
research should also be targeted at developing techniques,
which allow us to upscale local impacts and management
responses to wider geographical and temporal horizons.
Work such as this can help us to address the mismatch
Author biography
between the scales at which ecological and human systems Joseph Hancock is a 22-year-old Biology graduate who
organize when governing at the interface of the two. studied at the University of St Andrews to obtain a first
Human systems traditionally exist within geopolitical and class BSc. (Hons) degree. Joseph is particularly interested
national boundaries, and their goals are often evaluated in investigating issues at the interface of science and society
using short-term measures of success. Ecological processes and in the future he aims to work in the field of international
on the other hand operate on much longer timescales development, exploring the interdependencies between the
and are not constrained by anthropocentric boundaries. environment and development.
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