Research forecast report

FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies:

forecasts 2010–2015
Rupert Wood

August 2010
FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015
Contents [1]
Slide no.
4. Document map – Executive summary
5. Executive summary [1]
6. Executive summary [2]
7. Executive summary [3]
8. Document map – Recommendations
9. Recommendations
10. Document map – Forecast
11. Basic roll-out forecast comments
12. Western Europe
13. Central and Eastern Europe
14. North America and Developed Asia–Pacific
15. The highest levels of capex will be in Western
Europe
16. Document map – Market drivers and inhibitors
17. Summary of current market drivers and inhibitors
18. Cablecos have a head start on telcos in the roll-out
of NGA
19. Cable providers’ success in attracting users to
higher-speed services will determine the scale of
telcos’ FTTx roll-outs
20. The economic climate is likely to have a negative
impact on government intervention schemes
21. The lack of innovation at a service and device level
critically hinders the case for FTTH
22. Bandwidth, not proprietary services, appears to be
the best selling point for FTTH
2 Contents
Slide no.
23. Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx
technologies [1]
24. Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx
technologies [2]
25. Our baseline assumption is that FTTH costs 3.4
times more to pass and connect than VDSL
26. Several factors will combine to erode like-for-like
capital costs by about 10% per year
27. The model considers the increasing incremental
costs of roll-out to less-favourable demographics
and topologies
28. The model also takes into account the cost
variances between countries
29. Specific circumstances have enabled the swift
development of FTTB/H in parts of DVAP and CEE
30. LTE is a real threat to, and a better investment than,
FTTH
31. Document map – Market definition
32. Regional breakdown used in this report [1]
33. Regional breakdown used in this report [2]
34. Document map – Author and copyright
35. Author and copyright
36. Disclaimer
37. Document map – List of tables and figures
38. List of tables and figures [1]
39. List of tables and figures [2]
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FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015 3 Contents

Contents [2]
Slide no.
40. Document map – About Analysys Mason
41. About Analysys Mason
42. Research from Analysys Mason
43. Consulting from Analysys Mason

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FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015 37 Document map: List of figures and tables

Document map

Executive summary

Recommendations

Forecast

Market drivers and inhibitors

Market definition

Author and copyright

List of figures and tables

About Analysys Mason

© Analysys Mason Limited 2010

FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015 38 List of figures and tables

List of figures and tables [1]

Figure 1: FTTx roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2009
Figure 2: FTTx capex by region, developed markets, to 2009
Figure 3: Total FTTx capex by region, developed markets, 2009–2015
Figure 4: FTTH roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2015
Figure 5: FTTx roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2015
Figure 6: FTTH roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2015
Figure 7: FTTx roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2015
Figure 8: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2015
Figure 9: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2015
Figure 10: FTTx capex by country, Western Europe, 2009–2015
Figure 11: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015
Figure 12: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015
Figure 13: FTTx capex by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2015
Figure 14: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, North America and the Developed Asia–Pacific region, 2015
Figure 15: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, North America and the Developed Asia–Pacific region, 2015
Figure 16: FTTx capex by country, North America and Developed Asia–Pacific markets, 2009–2015

© Analysys Mason Limited 2010

FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015 39 List of figures and tables

List of figures and tables [2]

Figure 17: Total FTTx capex by region, developed markets, 2009–2015
Figure 18: FTTx capex by region, developed markets, 2010–2015
Figure 19: DOCSIS3.0 coverage, selected markets, 2010 and 2015
Figure 20: Virgin Media cable broadband base by service speed, UK, 1Q 2009–1Q 2010
Figure 21: Converging and non-converging trends in Internet and TV bandwidth requirements
Figure 22: FTTH service penetration of homes passed, selected providers, 2008 and 2009
Figure 23: Basic overview of NGA network topologies and elements
Figure 24: Baseline cost per home passed and per connection, VDSL and FTTH
Figure 25: Cost erosion per home passed and per connection, VDSL and FTTH, 2009–2015
Figure 26: Cost to pass a home with FTTH by decile of housing density, 2009–2015
Figure 27: Relative capital costs for FTTx by country
Figure 28: Regional breakdown used in this report

Table 1: Summary of typical costs for VDSL/FTTC, FTTH (P2P) and FTTH (GPON) access networks
Table 2: Regional breakdown used in this report

© Analysys Mason Limited 2010

FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015 40 Document map: About Analysys Mason

Document map

Executive summary

Recommendations

Forecast

Market drivers and inhibitors

Market definition

Author and copyright

List of figures and tables

About Analysys Mason

© Analysys Mason Limited 2010

FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015
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41 About Analysys Mason
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FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015 42 About Analysys Mason

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FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015 43 About Analysys Mason

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