Chapter 3

Probability

True/False

1. A contingency table is a tabular summary of probabilities concerning two sets of

complementary events.
Answer: True Difficulty: Medium

2. An event is a collection of sample space outcomes.

Answer: True Difficulty: Easy

3. Two events are independent if the probability of one event is influenced by whether or
not the other event occurs.
Answer: False Difficulty: Medium

4. Mutually exclusive events have a nonempty intersection.

Answer: False Difficulty: Medium (REF)

5. A subjective probability is a probability assessment that is based on experience,

intuitive judgment, or expertise.
Answer: True Difficulty: Medium

6. The probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of the sample space
outcomes that correspond to the event.
Answer: True Difficulty: Medium

7. If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then P( A B ) is always equal to zero.

Answer: True Difficulty: Hard (REF)

8. If events A and B are independent, then P(A|B) is always equal to zero.

Answer: False Difficulty: Medium (REF)

9. If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A  B) is always equal to zero.
Answer: True Difficulty: Easy
10. Events that have no sample space outcomes in common, and, therefore cannot occur
simultaneously are referred to as independent events.
Answer: False Difficulty: Medium

Multiple Choice

11. Two mutually exclusive events having positive probabilities are ______________
dependent.
A) Always
B) Sometimes
C) Never
Answer: A Difficulty: Hard (REF)

12. ___________________ is a measure of the chance that an uncertain event will occur.
A) Random experiment
B) Sample Space
C) Probability
D) A complement
E) A population
Answer: C Difficulty: Medium

13. A manager has just received the expense checks for six of her employees. She
randomly distributes the checks to the six employees. What is the probability that exactly
five of them will receive the correct checks (checks with the correct names).
A) 1
B) ½
C) 1/6
D) 0
E) 1/3
Answer: D Difficulty: Hard

14. In which of the following are the two events A and B, always independent?
A) A and B are mutually exclusive.
B) The probability of event A is not influenced by the probability of event B.
C) The intersection of A and B is zero.
D) P(A/B) = P(A).
E) B and D.
Answer: E Difficulty: Hard (REF)
15. If two events are independent, we can _____ their probabilities to determine the
intersection probability.
A) Divide
B) Add
C) Multiply
D) Subtract
Answer: C Difficulty: Easy

16. Events that have no sample space outcomes in common, and therefore, cannot occur
simultaneously are:
A) Independent
B) Mutually Exclusive
C) Intersections
D) Unions
Answer: B Difficulty: Medium

17. If events A and B are independent, then the probability of simultaneous occurrence of
event A and event B can be found with:
A) P(A)P(B)
B) P(A)P( B A )
C) P(B)P( A B )
D) All of the above are correct
Answer: D Difficulty: Hard (REF)

18. The set of all possible experimental outcomes is called a(n):

A) Sample space
B) Event
C) Experiment
D) Probability
Answer: A Difficulty: Easy

19. A(n) ____________ is the probability that one event will occur given that we know
that another event already has occurred.
A) Sample space outcome
B) Subjective Probability
C) Complement of events
D) Long-run relative frequency
E) Conditional probability
Answer: E Difficulty: Medium
20. The _______ of two events X and Y is another event that consists of the sample
space outcomes belonging to either event X or event Y or both event X and Y.
A) Complement
B) Union
C) Intersection
D) Conditional probability
Answer: B Difficulty: Medium

21. If P(A) > 0 and P(B) > 0 and events A and B are independent, then:
A) P(A) = P(B)
B) P( A B )=P(A)
C) P(A  B) = 0
D) P(A  B) = P(A) P(B  A)
Answer: B Difficulty: Medium

22. P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B) represents the formula for the
A) conditional probability
B) addition rule
C) addition rule for two mutually exclusive events
D) multiplication rule
Answer: B Difficulty: Medium

23. The management of a company believes that weather conditions significantly affect
the level of demand for its product. 48 monthly sales reports are randomly selected.
These monthly sales reports showed 15 months with high demand, 28 months with
medium demand, and 5 months with low demand. 12 of the 15 months with high demand
had favorable weather conditions. 14 of the 28 months with medium demand had
favorable weather conditions. Only 1 of the 5 months with low demand had favorable
weather conditions. What is the probability that weather conditions are poor, given that
the demand is high?
A) .2
B) .5
C) .8
D) .25
E) .75
Answer: A Difficulty: Hard
24. The management believes that the weather conditions significantly impact the level
of demand and the estimated probabilities of poor weather conditions given different
levels of demand is presented below.
P ( Poor High)  .2, P ( Poor Medium)  .5, P ( Poor Low)  .8
What is the probability of high demand given that the weather conditions are poor.
A) .06
B) .44
C) .1364
D) .12
E) .1818
Answer: C Difficulty: Hard

Use the following information to answer questions 25-26:

An automobile insurance company is in the process of reviewing its policies. Currently
drivers under the age of 25 have to pay a premium. The company is considering
increasing the value of the premium charged to drivers under 25. According to company
records, 35% of the insured drivers are under the age of 25. The company records also
show that 280 of the 700 insured drivers under the age of 25 had been involved in at least
one automobile accident. On the other hand, only 130 of the 1300 insured drivers 25
years or older had been involved in at least one automobile accident.

25. An accident has just been reported. What is the probability that the insured driver is
under the age of 25?
A) 35%
B) 20.5%
C) 14%
D) 68.3%
E) 40%
Answer: D Difficulty: Hard (AS)

26. What is the probability that an insured driver of any age will be involved in an
accident?
A) 35%
B) 20.5%
C) 65%
D) 68.3%
E) 79.5%
Answer: B Difficulty: Hard (AS)
27. A pharmaceutical company manufacturing pregnancy test kits wants to determine the
probability of a woman not being pregnant when the test results indicate pregnancy. It is
estimated that the probability of pregnancy among potential users of the kit is 10%.
According to the company laboratory test results 1 out of 100 non-pregnant women tested
pregnant (false positive). On the other hand, 1 out of 200 pregnant women tested non-
pregnant (false negative). A woman has just used the pregnancy test kit manufactured by
the company and the results showed pregnancy. What is the probability that she is not
pregnant?
A) 90%
B) 0.9%
C) 8.3%
D) 91.7%
E) 10.85%
Answer: C Difficulty: Hard

28. A pharmaceutical company manufacturing pregnancy test kits wants to determine the
probability of a woman actually being pregnant when the test results indicate that she is
not pregnant. It is estimated that the probability of pregnancy among potential users of
the kit is 10%. According to the company laboratory test results 1 out of 100 non-
pregnant women tested pregnant (false positive). On the other hand, 1 out of 200
pregnant women tested non-pregnant (false negative). A woman has just used the
pregnancy test kit manufactured by the company and the results showed that she is not
pregnant. What is the probability that she is pregnant?
A) 1%
B) 0.9%
C) 0.05%
D) 8.3%
E) 0.056%
Answer: E Difficulty: Hard

Fill-in-the-Blank

29. A(n) _____ is the set of all of the distinct possible outcomes of an experiment.
Answer: Sample Space Difficulty: Medium

30. The _____ of an event is a number that measures the likelihood that an event will
occur when an experiment is carried out.
Answer: Probability Difficulty: Easy

31. When the probability of one event is influenced by whether or not another event
occurs, the events are said to be _____.
Answer: Dependent Difficulty: Medium

32. A process of observation that has an uncertain outcome is referred to as a(n) _____.
Answer: Experiment Difficulty: Medium

33. When the probability of one event is not influenced by whether or not another event
occurs, the events are said to be _____.
Answer: Independent Difficulty: Medium

34. A probability may be interpreted as a long run _____ frequency.

Answer: Relative Difficulty: Medium

35. If events A and B are independent, then P(A/B) is equal to _____.

Answer: P(A) Difficulty: Medium

36. The simultaneous occurrence of event A and B is represented by the notation:

_______.
Answer: A  B Difficulty: Easy

37. A(n) _______________ probability is a probability assessment that is based on

experience, intuitive judgment, or expertise.
Answer: Subjective Difficulty: Medium

38. A(n) ______________ is a collection of sample space outcomes.

Answer: Event Difficulty: Easy

39. Probabilities must be assigned to experimental outcomes so that the probabilities of

all the experimental outcomes must add up to ___.
Answer: 1 Difficulty: Easy

40. Probabilities must be assigned to experimental outcomes so that the probability

assigned to each experimental outcome must be between ____ and ____ inclusive.
Answer: 0,1 Difficulty: Easy

41. The __________ of event X consists of all sample space outcomes that do not
correspond to the occurrence of event X.
Answer: Complement Difficulty: Easy
42. The _______ of two events A and B is another event that consists of the sample space
outcomes belonging to either event A or event B or both event A and B.
Answer: Union Difficulty: Easy

43. The _______ of two events A and B is the event that consists of the sample space
outcomes belonging to both event A and event B.
Answer: Intersection Difficulty: Easy

44. __________________ statistics is an area of statistics that uses Bayes' theorem to

update prior belief about a probability or population parameter to a posterior belief.
Answer: Bayesian Difficulty: Medium

45. In the application of Bayes' theorem the sample information is combined with prior
probabilities to obtain ___________________ probabilities.
Answer: posterior Difficulty: Easy (REF)

Essay

46. What is the probability of rolling a seven with a pair of fair dice?
Answer: 1/6
6
36
Difficulty: Medium

47. What is the probability of rolling a value higher than eight with a pair of fair dice?
Answer: .2777
10
 .2777
36
Difficulty: Medium

48. What is the probability that an even number appears on the toss of a die?
Answer: .5 Difficulty: Easy

49. What is the probability that a king appears in drawing a single card form a deck of 52
cards?
Answer: 1/13 Difficulty: Medium
50. If we consider the toss of four coins as an experiment, how many outcomes does the
sample space consist of?
Answer: 16
2 4  16 Difficulty: Medium

51. What is the probability of at least one tail in the toss of three fair coins?
Answer: 7/8 Difficulty: Hard

52. A lot contains 12 items, and 4 are defective. If three items are drawn at random from
the lot, what is the probability they are not defective?
Answer: .2545

 8    7  6
     .2545
 12   11
  10
Difficulty: Hard

53. A person is dealt 5 cards from a deck of 52 cards. What is the probability they are all
clubs?
Answer: .0004951

 13  12    11  
10 9
       0.0004951
 52   51   50   49 48
Difficulty: Hard

54. A group has 12 men and 4 women. If 3 people are selected at random from the
group, what is the probability that they are all men?
Answer: .392857

 12  11  10
     .392857
 16  
15  14
Difficulty: Hard

Use the following information to answer questions 55-57:

Container 1 has 8 items, 3 of which are defective. Container 2 has 5 items, 2 of which
are defective. If one item is drawn from each container:
55. What is the probability that both items are not defective?
Answer: .375

 5   3
    .375
 8   5 Difficulty: Medium

56. What is the probability that the item from container one is defective and the item
from container 2 is not defective?
Answer: .225

 3   3
    .225
 8   5
Difficulty: Hard

57. What is the probability that one of the items is defective?

Answer: .45

 3   3    3 3
         .45
 8   5    8 5
Difficulty: Hard

58. A coin is tossed 6 times. What is the probability that at least one head occurs?
Answer: 63/64

  1    1     1   1 1 1 63
1            
  2    2    2   2 2 2 64
Difficulty: Medium

59. Suppose P(A) = .45, P(B) =.20, P(C) = .35, P( E A ) = .10, P( E B ) = .05, and P(
E C ) = 0. What is P(E)?
Answer: .055
P(E) = (.45)(.10) + (.20)(.05) + (.35)(0) = .055
Difficulty: Hard
60. Suppose P(A) = .45, P(B) = .20, P(C) = .35, P( E A ) = .10, P( E B ) = .05, and P(
E C ) = 0. What is P( A E )?
Answer: .8182
P  A  E   (.10)(.45)  .045
P( E )  (.45)(.10)  (.20)(.05)  (.35)(0)  .055
P( A  E ) .045
P( A E )    .8182
P( E ) .055
Difficulty: Hard

61. Suppose P(A) = .45, P(B) = .20, P(C) = .35, P( E A ) = .10, P( E B ) = .05, and P(
E C ) = 0. What is P( B E )?
Answer: 1818
P  B  E   (.20)(.05)  .01
P( E )  (.45)(.10)  (.20)(.05)  (.35)(0)  .055
P( B  E ) .01
P( B E )    .1818
P( E ) .055
Difficulty: Hard

62. Suppose P(A) = .45, P(B) = .20, P(C) = .35, P( E A ) = .10, P( E B ) = .05, and P(
E C ) = 0. What is P ( C E )?
Answer: 0
P C  E  0
P( E )  (.45)(.10)  (.20)(.05)  (.35)(0)  .055
P(C  E ) 0
P(C E )   0
P( E ) .055
Difficulty: Hard

63. Given the standard deck of cards, what is the probability of drawing a red card, given
that it is a face card?
Answer: .5
6
P (Re d  Face)
P (Re d Face)   52  .5
P ( Face) 12
52
Difficulty: Medium
64. Given a standard deck of cards, what is the probability of drawing a face card, given
that it is a red card?
Answer: 3/13
6
P (Re d  Face) 3
P ( Face Re d )   52 
P (Re d ) 26 13
52
Difficulty: Medium

65. A machine is made up of 3 components: an upper part, a mid part, and a lower part.
The machine is then assembled. 5 percent of the upper parts are defective; 4 percent of
the mid parts are defective; 1 percent of the lower parts are defective. What is the
probability that a machine is non-defective?
Answer: .9029
(.95)(.96)(.99) = .9029 Difficulty: Hard (AS)

66. A machine is produced by a sequence of operations. Typically one defective

machine is produced per 1000 parts. What is the probability of two non-defective
machines being produced?
Answer: .998
(.999)(.999) = .998 Difficulty: Medium

67. A pair of dice is thrown. What is the probability that one of the faces is a 3, given
that the sum of the two faces is 9?
Answer: 1/4 Difficulty: Hard

68. A card is drawn from a standard deck. What is the probability the card is an ace,
given that it is a club?
Answer: 1/13 Difficulty: Medium

69. A card is drawn from a standard deck. Given that a face card is drawn, what is the
probability it will be a king?
Answer: 1/3
(4 kings)/(12 face cards) Difficulty: Medium
70. Independently a coin is tossed, a card is drawn from a deck, and a die is thrown.
What is the probability of observing a head on the coin, an ace on the card, and a five on
the die?
Answer: 1/156

 1   4  1 1
       
 2     6
52 156
Difficulty: Medium

71. A family has two children. What is the probability that both are girls, given that at
least one is a girl?
Answer: 1/3 Difficulty: Medium

72. What is the probability of winning four games in a row, if the probability of winning
each game individually is 1/2?
Answer: 1/16

Difficulty: Medium

Use the following to answer questions 73-77:

At a college, 70 percent of the students are women and 50 percent of the students receive
a grade of C. 25 percent of the students are neither female nor C students. Use this
contingency table.

C C
Women .45 .25 .70
Men .05 .25 .30
.50 .50 1.00

73. What is the probability that a student is female and a C student?

Answer: .45 Difficulty: Hard (AS)

74. What is the probability that a student is male and not a C student?
Answer: .25 Difficulty: Hard (AS)
75. If the student is male, what is the probability he is a C student?
Answer: .1667

.05
P (C Male)   .1667
.30
Refer To: 03_02
Difficulty: Hard (AS)

76. If the student has received a grade of C, what is the probability that he is male?
Answer: .10
.05
P ( Male C )   .10
.50
Difficulty: Hard (AS)

77. If the student has received a grade of C, what is the probability that she is female?
Answer: .90
.45
P ( female C )   .90
.50
Difficulty: Hard (AS)

Use the following information to answer questions 78-79:

Two percent (2%) of the customers of a store buy cigars. Half of the customers who buy
cigars buy beer. 25 percent who buy beer buy cigars. Determine the probability that a
customer using this contingency table:

Beer Beer
Cigars .01 .01 .02
Cigars .03 .95 .95
.04 .96 1.0

78. Buys beer.

Answer: .04
P ( Beer  Cigar ) .01
P ( Beer )    .04
P ( Beer Cigar ) .25
Difficulty: Hard
79. Neither buys beer nor buys cigars.
Answer: .95
P ( Beer  Cigar ) .01
P ( Beer )    .04
P( Beer Cigar ) .25
P ( No Cigar  Beer )  .03
P ( No Cigar  No Beer )  .98  .03  .95
Difficulty: Hard

Use the following information to answer questions 80-81:

An urn contains five white, three red, and four black balls. Three are drawn at random
without replacement.

80. What is the probability that no ball is red?

Answer: .3818

 9    8  7
     .3818
 12   11
  10
Difficulty: Hard

81. What is the probability that all balls are the same color?
Answer: .0682

C35  C33  C34 10  1  4

  .0682
C312 220
Difficulty: Hard

82. What is the probability that any two people chosen at random were born on the same
day of the week?
Answer: 1/7 Difficulty: Hard

83. A letter is drawn from the alphabet of 26 letters. What is the probability that the
letter drawn is a vowel?
Answer: 5/26 Difficulty: Easy

84. How many times must a die be tossed if the expected number of ones is five?
Answer: 30 Difficulty: Medium
85. List two properties of a valid discrete probability distribution.
Answer:
n
p ( X )  0 , for all X and  X i  1
i

Difficulty: Hard

86. If A and B are independent events, P(A) = .2, and P(B) = .7, determine P(A  B)
Answer: .76
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
P(A  B) = (.7) + (.2) – (.7)(.2) = .76
Difficulty: Medium

87. If events A and B are mutually exclusive, calculate P( A B ).

Answer: Zero Difficulty: Hard

88. What is the probability of rolling a six with a fair die five times in a row?
Answer: 1/7,776

 1    1    1    1 1 1 1
       
 6    6    6    6 6 6 7776
Difficulty: Hard

89. If a product is made using five individual components, and P(product meets
specifications) = .98, what is the probability of an individual component meeting
specifications assuming that this probability is the same for all five components?
Answer: .9960

5
.98
Difficulty: Hard (AS)

90. If P( A B ) = .2 and P(B) = .8, determine the intersection of event A and B.

Answer: .16
(.2)(.8) = .16
Difficulty: Medium
91. If P(A  B )= .3 and P( A B ) = .9, find P(B).
Answer: .333
.3
P ( B )   .333
.9
Difficulty: Medium

Use the following information to answer questions 92-100:

Gender
Job Male (M) Female (F)
Faculty (FA) 110 10
Salaried staff (SS) 30 50
Hourly staff (HS) 60 40

Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type.

92. If an employee is selected at random what is the probability that the employee is
male?
Answer: .667
200
P(M )   .667
300
Difficulty: Medium (AS)

93. If an employee is selected at random what is the probability that the employee is
male and salaried staff?
Answer: 0.10
30
P ( M and SS )   0.10
300
Difficulty: Medium (AS)

94. If an employee is selected at random what is the probability that the employee is
female given that the employee is a salaried member of staff?
Answer: 0.625
50 5
P ( F SS )    0.625
80 8
Difficulty: Medium (AS)
95. If an employee is selected at random what is the probability that the employee is
female or works as a member of the faculty?
Answer: 0.70
100 120 10
P ( F  FA)     0.70
300 300 300
Difficulty: Medium (AS)

96. If an employee is selected at random what is the probability that the employee is
female or works as an hourly staff member?
Answer: 0.533
100 100 40
P ( F  HA)     0.533
300 300 300
Difficulty: Medium (AS)

97. If an employee is selected at random what is the probability that the employee is a
member of the hourly staff given that the employee is female?
Answer: 0.40
40 4
P ( HS F )    0.40
100 10
Difficulty: Medium (AS)

98. If an employee is selected at random what is the probability that the employee is a
member of the faculty?
Answer: .40
120
P( FA)   .40
300
Difficulty: Medium (AS)

99. Is gender and type of job mutually exclusive? Explain with probabilities.
Answer: No, gender and job type is not mutually exclusive.

200
P(M )   .667
300
120
P ( FA)   0.40
300
110
P ( M  FA)  0
300
Difficulty: Medium (AS)
100. Is gender and type of job statistically independent? Explain with probabilities.
Answer:
No, gender is not independent of type of job.
Select a category of gender (male) and a category of job status (faculty), if the two are
independent of each other, than:

P ( M )  P( M FA)
Since P ( M )  200  0.667
300
and P ( M FA)  110  0.9167
120
0.667  .9167
Difficulty: Medium (AS)

Use the following information to answer questions 101-104:

Worker % of Dinners Packed % Forgot Napkin

Joe 25% 6%
Jan 20% 2%
Cheryl 20% 10%
Clay 35% 4%

Four employees who work as drive-through attendees at a local fast food restaurant are
being evaluated. As a part of quality improvement initiative and employee evaluation
these workers were observed over three days. One of the statistics collected is the
proportion of time employee forgets to include a napkin in the bag. Related information is
given in the table, above.

101. What is the probability that Cheryl prepared your dinner and forgot to include a
napkin?
Answer: 0.02
P(Cheryl  Forgot napkin) = (.20)(.10) =0.02 Difficulty: Medium
Refer To: 03_06

102. What is the probability that there is not a napkin included for a given order?
Answer: 0.053
P(No Napkin) = (.25)(.06) + (.20)(.02) + (0.20)(.10) + (.35)(.04) = .053
Difficulty: Medium
103. You just purchased a dinner and found that there is no napkin in your bag, what is
the probability that Cheryl has prepared your order?
Answer: 0.3774
(.2)(.1) .02
P (Cheryl No napkin)    0.37774
(.25)(.06)  (.2)(.02)  (.20)(.10)  (.35)(.04) .053
Difficulty: Hard

104. You just purchased a dinner and found that there is no napkin in your bag, what is
the probability that Jan has prepared your order.
Answer: 0.0754
(.2)(.02) .004
P ( Jan No napkin)    0.0755
(.25)(.06)  (.2)(.02)  (.20)(.10)  (.35)(.04) .053
Difficulty: Hard

Use the following information to answer questions 105-110:

Joe is considering pursuing an MBA degree. He has applied to two different universities.
The acceptance rate for applicants with similar qualifications is 25% for University A and
40% for University B.

105. What is the probability that Joe will be accepted at both universities?
Answer: 0.10
(.25)(.40) = 0.10 Difficulty: Hard

106. What is the probability that Joe will be accepted at University A and rejected at
University B?
Answer: 0.15
(.25)(.60) = 0.15 Difficulty: Medium

107. What is the probability that Joe will not be accepted at either university?
Answer: 0.45
(.75)(.60) = 0.45 Difficulty: Medium

108. What is the probability that Joe will be accepted at least by one of the two
universities?
Answer: 0.55
1- [(.75)(.60)] = 0.55 Difficulty: Medium
109. What is the probability that Joe will be accepted at one, and only one university?
Answer: 0.45
(.25)(.60) + (.75)(.40) = 0.45 Difficulty: Hard

110. Is the acceptance decision at University A independent of the acceptance decision at

University B? Show with probabilities.
Answer:
Yes, the two decisions are statistically independent
If the MBA acceptance decisions are independent at the two universities, than
P(Accepting at A) = P(Accepting at A given rejecting at B).

(.25)(.60) .15
P( Accept at A)  .25  P( Accept at A Re ject at B )    .25
.60 .60
Difficulty: Hard

Use the following information to answer questions 111-113:

In a report on high school graduation, it was stated that 85% of high school students
graduate. Suppose 3 high school students are randomly selected from different schools.

111. What is the probability that all graduate?

Answer: 0.614
(85)(.85)(.85) = 0.614
Difficulty: Easy

112. What is the probability that exactly one of the three graduate?
Answer: .0574
(.85)(.15)(.15)+(.15)(.85)(.15)+(.15)(.15)(.85)= .057375
Difficulty: Hard

113. What is the probability that none graduate?

Answer: .0034
(.15)(.15)(.15) = .003375
Difficulty: Easy

Use the following information to answer questions 114-116:

It is very common for television series to draw a large audience for special events of for
cliff-hanging story lines. Suppose that on one of these occasions, the special show drew
viewers from 38.2% of all US TV households. Suppose that three TV households are
randomly selected.
114. What is the probability that all three households viewed this special show?
Answer: .056
(.382)(.382)(.382) = .05574
Difficulty: Easy

115. What is the probability that none of the three households viewed this special show?
Answer: .236
(.618)(.618)(.618)=.236
Difficulty: Easy

116. What is the probability that exactly one of the three households viewed the special
show?
Answer: .438
(.382)(.618)(.618)+(.618)(.382)(.618)+(.618)(.618)(.382)=.4376
Difficulty: Hard

Use the following information to answer questions 117-119:

A survey is made in a neighborhood of 80 voters. 65 were Democrats and 15 were
Republicans. Of the Democrats, 35 are women, while 5 of the Republicans are women. If
one subject from the group is randomly selected, find the probability:

117. The individual is either a woman or a Democrat.

Answer: .875
P(W  D) = P(W) + P(D) – P(W  D)
(40/80) + (65/80) – (35/80) = .875
Difficulty: Medium

118. A male Republican

Answer: .125
(10/80) = .125
Difficulty: Medium

119. A Democrat of a Republican

Answer: 1.00
Difficulty: Easy

Use the following information to answer questions 120-121:

Owners are asked to evaluate their experiences in buying a new car during the past
 twelve months. When surveys were analyzed the owners indicated they were most
satisfied with their experiences at the following three dealers (in no particular order):
Saturn, Honda, and Buick.

120. List all possible sets of rankings for these three dealers:
Answer: HSB, BHS, SHB, HBS, BSH, SBH
Difficulty: Easy

121. Assuming that each set of rankings is equally likely, what is the probability that
(a) Owners ranked Saturn first?
(b) Owners ranked Saturn third?
(c) Owners ranked Saturn first and Honda second?
Answer:
(a) 2/6
(b) 2/6
(c) 1/6
Difficulty: Easy

122. In a study of chain saw injuries, 57% involved arms or hands. If three different chain
saw injury cases are randomly selected, find the probability that they all involved arms or
hands?
Answer: .185
(.57)(.57)(.57)= .185
Difficulty: Easy

Use the following information to answer questions 123-125:

In a local survey, 100 citizens indicated their opinions on a revision to a local land use
plan. Of the 62 favorable responses, there were 40 males. Of the 38 unfavorable
responses, there were 15 males. If one citizen is randomly selected find the probability

123. A female or has an unfavorable opinion

Answer: .60
P(F  N(F) + P(N) – P(F  N)
.45 + .38 - .23 = .60
Y N
M 40 15 65
F 22 23 45
62 38 100

Difficulty: Medium
124. A male has a favorable opinion
Answer: .40
Difficulty: Easy
125: Has a favorable opinion or has an unfavorable opinion
Answer: 1.00
Difficulty: Easy

Use the following information to answer questions 126-130.

Determine whether the two events are mutually exclusive:

126. A consumer with an unlisted phone number and a consumer who does not drive
Answer: Not mutually exclusive
Difficulty: Easy

127. An unmarried person and a person with an employed spouse

Answer: Mutually exclusive
Difficulty: Easy

128. Someone born in the United States and a US citizen

Answer: Not mutually exclusive
Difficulty: Easy

129. A voter who favors gun control and a conservative voter

Answer: Not mutually exclusive
Difficulty: Easy

130. A voter who is a registered Democrat and a voter who favors a Republican
candidate
Answer: Not mutually exclusive
Difficulty: Easy

Use the following information to answer questions 131-134:

In a recent survey of homes in a major Midwestern city, 10% of the homes have a fax
machine and 52% have a personal computer. Suppose 91% of the homes with a fax
machine also have a personal computer.
131. What percent of homes have a fax machine and a personal computer?
Answer: .091 = 9.1%
Difficulty: Hard
132. What is the probability that a home has a fax machine or a personal computer?
Answer: .53= 53%
P(PC)+P(F)-P(F  PC)= (.52)+(.10)-(.09)=.53
Difficulty: Hard

133. What is the probability that a home with a personal computer has a fax machine?
Answer: .17
P(F|PC) = P(F  PC)/P(PC) = .09/.52= .17
Difficulty: Hard

134. Are the events “owning a fax machine” and “owning a personal computer”
independent? Why or why not?
Answer: NO
P(PC|F)  P(PC)
Difficulty: Hard

135. A batch of 50 parts contains 6 defects. If two parts are drawn randomly one at a
time without replacement, what is the probability that both parts are defective?
Answer: .012
(6/50)(5/49)= .012
Difficulty: Medium

136. A batch of 50 parts contains 6 defects. If two parts are drawn randomly, one at a
time with replacement, what is the probability that both parts are defective?
Answer: .014
(6/50)(6/50)= .014
Difficulty: Medium

137. In the word BUSINESS, what is the probability of randomly selecting the letter S?
Answer: .375
3/8= .375
Difficulty: Easy

138. Suppose that you believe that the probability you will get a grade of B or better in
Introduction to Finance is .6, and the probability that you will get a grade of B or better in
Introduction to Accounting is .5. If these events are independent, what is the probability
that you will be a grade of B or better in both courses?
Answer: .30
(.6)(.5)=.30
Difficulty: Easy (AS)
 Use the following information to answer questions 139-142:
In a major Midwestern university, 55% of all undergraduates are female, 25% belong to a
Greek organization (fraternity or sorority) and 40% of all males belong to a Greek
organization.

139. What percent of the undergraduates are female and in a Greek organization?
Answer: 7%
Female Male
Greek .07 .18 .25
Non-Greek .48 .27 .75
.55 .45

Difficulty: Hard

140. What is the probability that one randomly selected undergraduate will be either a
female or belong to a Greek organization?
Answer: 73%
P(G  F) = .55 + .25 -.07=.73
Difficulty: Hard

141. What is the probability that an undergraduate is in a Greek organization given that
the undergraduate is a female?
Answer: .127
P(G|F) = .07/.55 = .127
Difficulty: Hard

142. Are the events “female/not female” and “belongs to a Greek organization”
independent?
Answer: No
P(G|F)  P(G)
Difficulty: Hard

Use the following information to answer questions 143-146:

At a certain university, 30% of the students major in zoology. Of the students majoring in
zoology, 60% are males. Of all the students at the university, 70% are males.
 143. What percentage of the students are males majoring in zoology?
Answer: 18%
Zoology Not
Major Zoology
Male .18 .52 .70
Female .12 .18 .30
.30 .70 1.00

Difficulty: Hard

144. What is the probability that one randomly selected student is a male or is majoring
in zoology?
Answer: 82%
(.30)+(.70)-(.18)=.82
Difficulty: Hard

145. What proportion of the males are majoring in zoology?

Answer:.257
P(Z|M) = .18/.70= .257
Difficulty: Hard

146. Are the events “male” and “majoring in zoology” independent?

Answer: No
P(M|Z) ≠P(M)
Difficulty: Hard

147. An advertising campaign is being developed to promote a new bookstore opening in

the newest mall development. To develop an appropriate mailing list it has been decided
to purchase lists of credit card holders from MasterCard and American Express.
Combining the lists they find the following: 40% of the people on the list have only a
MasterCard and 10% have only an American Express card. Another 20% hold both
MasterCard and American Express. Finally, 30% of those on the list have neither card.
Suppose a person on the list is known to have a MasterCard. What is the probability that
person also has an American Express Card?
Answer: .33
P(AE|MC)=.20/.60=.33
MasterCard No MasterCard
American Express .20 .10 .30
No American .40 .30 .70
Express
.60 .40 1.00
Difficulty: Medium
Use the following information to answer questions 148-152:
Consider a standard deck of 52 playing cards, a randomly selected card from the deck,
and the following events: R=red, B=black, A=ace, N=nine, D=diamond and C=club.
For each of the following pair of events, indicated whether the events are mutually
exclusive

148. R and A
Answer: No
Difficulty: Easy

149. R and C
Answer: Yes
Difficulty: Easy

150. A and N
Answer: Yes
Difficulty: Easy

151. N and C
Answer: No
Difficulty: Easy

152. D and C
Answer: Yes
Difficulty: Easy

Use the following information to answer questions 153-154:

An automobile insurance company is in the process of reviewing its policies. Currently
drivers under the age of 25 have to pay a premium. The company is considering
increasing the value of the premium charged to drivers under 25. According to company
records, 35% of the insured drivers are under the age of 25. The company records also
show that 280 of the 700 insured drivers under the age of 25 had been involved in at least
one automobile accident. On the other hand, only 130 of the 1300 insured drivers 25
years or older had been involved in at least one automobile accident.
 153. An accident has just been reported. What is the probability that the insured driver is
under the age of 25?
Answer:
P ( 25 Acc)  .683

State of Nature P(Sj) P ( Accident S j ) P ( Acc.  S j ) P ( S j Acc.)

S1 (under 25) 0.35 0.40 0.14 0.683
S2 (25 or older) 0.65 0.10 0.065 0.317
1.0 0.205 1.0
Difficulty: Hard (AS)

154. What is the probability that an insured driver of any age will be involved in an
accident?
Answer:
P ( Accident )  .205

State of Nature P(Sj) P ( Accident S j ) P ( Acc.  S j ) P ( S j Acc.)

S1 (under 25) 0.35 0.40 0.14 0.683
S2 (25 or older) 0.65 0.10 0.065 0.317
1.0 0.205 1.0
Difficulty: Hard (AS)

155. A pharmaceutical company manufacturing pregnancy test kits wants to determine

the probability of a woman not being pregnant when the test results indicate pregnancy. It
is estimated that the probability of pregnancy among potential users of the kit is 10%.
According to the company laboratory test results, 1 out of 100 non-pregnant women
tested pregnant (false positive). On the other hand, 1 out of 200 pregnant women tested
non-pregnant (false negative). A woman has just used the pregnancy test kit
manufactured by the company and the results showed pregnancy. What is the probability
that she is not pregnant?
Answer:
P( NP TP )  .083
Let:
P = pregnant
NP = non-pregnant
TP = tested pregnant
TNP = tested non-pregnant

State of Nature P(Sj) P (TP S j ) P (TP  S j ) P ( S j TP)

S1 (pregnant) 0.1 0.995 0.0995 0.917
S2 (not pregnant) 0.9 0.01 0.009 0.083
 1.0 0.1085 1.0
Difficulty: Hard
 156. A pharmaceutical company manufacturing pregnancy test kits wants to determine
the probability of a woman actually being pregnant when the test results indicate that she
is not pregnant. It is estimated that the probability of pregnancy among potential users of
the kit is 10%. According to the company laboratory test results, 1 out of 100 non-
pregnant women tested pregnant (false positive). On the other hand, 1 out of 200
pregnant women tested non-pregnant (false negative). A woman has just used the
pregnancy test kit manufactured by the company and the results showed that she is not
pregnant. What is the probability that she is pregnant?
Answer:
P ( P NTP)  .00056
Let:
P = pregnant
NP = non-pregnant
TP = tested pregnant
TNP = tested non-pregnant

State of Nature P(Sj) P (TNP S j ) P (TNP  S j ) P ( S j TNP)

S1 (pregnant) 0.1 0.005 0.0005 0.00056
S2 (not pregnant) 0.9 0.99 0.891 0.99944
1.0 0.8915 1.0
Difficulty: Hard