56

IMPACT OF DECLINING MACRO-ECONOMIC

INDICATORS ON THE
NATIONAL SECURITY OF PAKISTAN
*
Zaib Maroof and Obaid ur Rehman

Abstract
National Security is one of the prime concerns of every nation, as its performance
level dictates the sovereignty of the state. National Security is significantly dependent on
economic sovereignty; hence promoting economic development becomes the core priorities
for every government. In this article, a relationship between National Security and
macroeconomic indicators of Pakistan has been discussed. In case of Pakistan, these
indicators are in declining state due to expanding trade deficit, volatile exchange rate,
appreciating inflation, declining remittances, decreasing forex reserves, escalating external
debt from international lending agencies, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World
Bank (WB) supported by poor governance parameter. These all have resulted in weak
budgetary statistics, which poses a serious concern to the National Security of Pakistan. This
paper identifies salient forthcoming looming threats to Pakistan’s National Security like
becoming prone to the sanctions of Financial Action Task Force (FATF), non-availability of
desired funding to our nuclear and defense program etc. Lastly, the article suggests way
forward to ward-off these likely coercions as a result of declining macroeconomic indicators.

Keywords: Macroeconomic Indicators, National Security, Economic Security,

External Debt and Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Introduction

N ational Security is the safety of a nation against threats such as terrorism, war, or
espionage1. It is a concept that a government along-with its parliament should
protect the state and its citizens, against all kinds of national crises through a variety
of power projections such as political power, diplomacy, economic power, military
might, and so on2. Hence, in order to achieve comprehensive National Security, a
nation needs to possess other type of securities like economic security, energy
security, environmental security etc. Economic Security, in broader sense includes
probable continued wealth to support country’s developmental projects conceived for
increasing society's production levels, predictability of the future cash flow in a
country to ensure monetary support for non-working citizens and job security for the

*
Zaib Maroof is a Ph.D scholar and Obaid ur Rehman is former MPhil Scholar National Defence University,
Islamabad.

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Impact of Declining Macro-Economic Indicators 57

employed one3. Economic growth is the custodian of economic security and hence
considered as a 'holy grail' of economic sovereignty of any country 4. Economic growth
of a country can be defined as quantitative changes in macroeconomic variables,
which increase the overall production or output over a certain period of time,
compared to the previous period5. Various predominant macroeconomic factors that
contribute towards the process of economic growth include Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), national income and resources, population, unemployment rate, Consumer
Price Index (CPI - Inflation), exchange rate, balance of trade, Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI), public and private investment, remittances, foreign exchange
reserves, government spending and expenditures, etc.6 Macro-economic turmoil can
lead to low level of economic freedom, thereby posing a serious threat to economic
sovereignty and security of a nation7.

Apropos in view, the present article describes the current status of macro-
economic indicators of Pakistan contributing towards one of the most essential
element of national power i.e. economy and consequential threats towards the
National Security of Pakistan due to their declining levels.

National Security
For a common person, National Security is perceived to be the protection of a
nation against alien invaders, however, if we take concept of comprehensive national
security for Pakistan, then we have to take in to account external, internal and non-
traditional securities, fully conceived, structured and implemented. These all heads
and their sub-elements are inter-linked8. External security or security against external
aggression is both a civil and military affair. It is military in execution but civil in
design. For instance, defense policy is derived from the foreign policy; however,
military action is the extreme end of failed diplomacy. On the other hand, internal
Security is the act of keeping peace within the borders of a sovereign state or other
self-governing territories, generally by upholding the national law and defending
against internal security threats. Responsibility for internal security may range from
police to paramilitary forces and in exceptional circumstances, the military itself 9.
Lastly, non-traditional security is that type, which focuses on security challenges that
are not considered main stream security threats and may be defined as challenges to
the survival of states10. They are generally non-military in nature, transnational in
scope i.e. neither totally domestic nor purely inter-state; but now-a-days they are
transmitted rapidly due to globalization and communication revolution. This implies
that these non-traditional threats are much intimidating then the traditional ones, as
they require the national leadership to look not only outwards to cultivate
international cooperation but also inwards, with an open outlook, to execute internal
socioeconomic and political reforms. Various types of non-traditional securities are
economic, energy, natural resources, border, demographic, disaster, geostrategic,

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58 Zaib Maroof and Obaid ur Rehman

information, ethnic, cyber, genomic and human securities11. Human security further
comprises economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community and political
securities.

Notwithstanding above, interdependency is the essential hallmark of all

elements of national security, as change in one induces a change in another, resulting
in an incremental or declining effect in the overall national security environment. In
this article, out of all, only economic security has been discussed, as it is the product
of macro-economic indicators of any country and has strong association with all other
elements in national security paradigm. To some authors, health of economic security
is the performance indicator of national security itself12.

Economic Security
Economic security, in the context of politics and international relations, is the
ability of a nation-state to follow its choice of policies to develop the national
economy in the manner desired13. In today's complex system of international trade,
characterized by multi-national agreements, mutual interdependence and availability
of natural resources etc. today economic security forms, unarguably, as the most
important ingredient of national security. In view of its significance, American foreign
policy after 9/11 considers economic security as a key determinant of international
relations14 even in Canada, threat to economic security is considered as economic
espionage15.

Nexus between Economy, Economic Growth and National

Security
According to Robert McNamara, “security means development and without
development there is no security” 16 and Paul Kennedy said that nation’s military
strength rests on its economic strength 17. Studies evidenced that weak economic
growth negatively influence the national security of a country, as same fails to create
enough jobs, especially for new entrants, higher unemployment, rising poverty,
growing civil unrest, social chaos and breakdown of law and order which ultimately
creates serious threats to the national security of a country. The economy enters into
the debate on national security through three overlapping roles 18 . Initially the
economy acts as a source of funds, material, and personnel for the military; secondly it
provides economic security and well-being to citizens and lastly mode of interaction
among countries for sharing competing interests. This includes the flow of wealth
generated by trade that allows countries to build their military and financial power.
Few think tanks believe that the economy entered into the national security debate
through four modes i.e. defense industrial base, program cuts, international economic
sanctions and export controls19. Economic sanctions compliment military actions to

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Impact of Declining Macro-Economic Indicators 59

make it successful20 and lie between diplomacy and open warfare. Often, the first
response to national security and foreign policy problems has been economic: trade
restriction, embargoes, freezing of financial assets and so on 21 . Hence, national
security of an economically declining country like Pakistan is prone to economic
sanctions and a matter of concern for policy makers. To understand the Pakistan’s
declining economy and its likely impacts, one need to understand the declining
macroeconomic indicators.

Declining Macro-Economic Indicators of Pakistan

Insignificant GDP Growths

World development indicator (WDI) reported a very negligible GDP growth
of 4.3% to 4.7% from Financial Year (FY) 2013 to FY2015 and reached to 5.28% in FY
201622. At present, GDP of Pakistan is approximately US $ 278 billion with per capita
income of US $ 1429; whereas that of India is US $ 2263 billion (8 times more)23, which
generates an alarming situation for Pakistan in the paradigm of national security.

Increase in External Debt: Statistics from the SBP reported an increase external debt
from US $ 73 billion in January 2015 to US $ 88.1 billion in January 2018. On other
hand, already deprived economy having significant defense budget requirement to
combat war on terror has to pay US $ 10 billion approximately by June 2018.

Increase in Debt to GDP Ratio: Statistics from State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)
reported an increase in Debt to GDP ratio during the last decade. Findings showed
that in FY 2008, it was 60.7% but sore to almost 70% from FY 2014 to FY 2017,
ultimately paving the way for poor economic sovereignty and a peril to national
security of country.

Inclining Revenue based on External Debt: Statistics collected from Ministry of

Finance showed that there is substantial increase in external debts from 7.4% to
24.30% from FY 2012 to FY 2017 further aggravated the economic condition as total
resources comprises of external debt, instead revenues generated from exports,
industrial production or high investment return.

Nominal Increase in Developmental but Substantial Increase in Non-

Development Expenditures: Although development expenditure has been
continuously on increase from 3,865 billion in FY 2012-13 to 4,841 billion in FY 2016-17,
but in the presence of non-developmental current expenditures i.e. almost four times
in FY 2016 – 2017 and rising external debts, it appears that acquired loans and
developmental expenditures have not been utilized correctly.

Deteriorating Industrial Growth: Despite trade being custodian of industrial

development, statistics from economic survey of Pakistan for FY 2017 marked a

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60 Zaib Maroof and Obaid ur Rehman

decrease in industrial growth of 5.02%, as compared to 5.80% in FY 2016 evidencing

lower exports and more imports for consumption.

Increase in Imports: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported that in last five years the
total imports of the country increased from Rs 4,350 billion to Rs 5,540.22

Decline in Exports: According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, total exports of a

country decreased from Rs 2,366 billion to Rs 2,138 billion.22

Inclining Exchange Rate (US $): Statistics of World Development Indicator (WDI)
showed that the Pakistani Rupee continuously showed depreciated trend with respect
to dollar since 201023.

Escalating Inflation: Statistics shows that the FY 2008 started with per capita income
of US $ 1039 and reached to US $ 1444 in FY 2016 23, however inflation inclined to 234 %
during the same period, hence threatening the economic security and making increase
in per capita income meaningless.23

Declining Private and Public Investments in 2017: According to World Bank

indicator, investment summary is as under24:

Table-1: Investment summary (FY 2011 - 2017)

Private Public Total

Investment Investment Investments % of GDP
Year
(US $) (US $) (US $)
billion billion billion
2012 20.78 3.16 23.94 11.21
2013 22.07 2.37 24.45 10.89
2014 22.81 2.66 25.48 11.02
2015 24.82 5.40 30.22 12.37
2016 23.23 3.48 26.72 11.45

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan24

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Economic survey FY2016 - 2017 showed a growth
of 12.75% in FDI from US $ 1.537 billion in FY 2016 to US $ 1.733 billion in FY 2017.
However, statistics showed that these investments were mainly in service sectors like
food, power, construction, electronics, financial business, communication, oil and gas
exploration24, hence does not tantamount to any increase in GDP or increase in
exports, mainly due to FDI (In flow) in service sector rather than industrial sector23.

Decrease in Remittances from Overseas Employees: Workers remittance reached

to US $ 14.1 billion during FY 2017 as compared to US $ 14.4 billion last year 24.

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Impact of Declining Macro-Economic Indicators 61

Major Contributing Factor towards Deteriorating

Macroeconomic Indicators – Poor Governance
Continuous poor Governance indicators from the last five years, poses serious
threat to our national economic development. Estimate ranges from approximately -
2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance, are as under:

Voice and Political Government Regulatory Rule of Control of Overall

Year Account Stability Effective Quality Law Corruption Govern
ability VA (PS) ness (GE) (RQ) (RL) (CC) ance
2011 -0.87 -2.81 -0.81 -0.63 -0.91 -1.05 -1.18
2012 -0.88 -2.69 -0.78 -0.71 -0.90 -1.06 -1.17
2013 -0.83 -2.60 -0.79 -0.70 -0.87 -0.93 -1.12
2014 -0.76 -2.40 -0.75 -0.69 -0.78 -0.81 -1.03
2015 -0.76 -2.54 -0.66 -0.62 -0.79 -0.76 -1.02

Source: World Governance Indicators (WGI) – Pakistan

Deteriorating Pakistan’s Budgetary Statistics – A Pull on the

Procurement of Modern Defense Procurement
Continuous budget deficit and four times current expenditure vis-à-vis
development one for the last five years as shown below, are already posing threat to
national security, as there will be less procurement power of defense equipment:

Table-2: Five Years Budget Summary of Pakistan

Classification 2013/ 2014/ 2015/ 2016/ 2017/

No
(Rs in Billions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
A. Resources
a. Internal Resources 2,967 3,122 3,406 3,086 3,826
b. External (Loans + Grants) 714 693 860 996 838
c. Privatization Proceeds - 17.7 13.6 17.7 50
Gross Resources (a+b+c) 3681 3833 4280 4099.7 4713
B. Expenditure
Current Expenditure
a. (Pension, allowances, Re- 3199 3481 3599 3905 3764
payment of loans etc)
b. Development Expenditure 859 754 879 936 1340
Total Expenditure(a + b) 4057 4235 4479 4841 5104
Bank Borrowing for Deficient
C. 376 402 199 741 390
Amount (A - B)

Source: Federal Budget Reports, Ministry of Finance

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62 Zaib Maroof and Obaid ur Rehman

Threat of becoming a Victim of Financial Action Task Force

(FATF) Sanctions
By observing a weak economic stature in FY 2018, on the behest of US 25, FATF
meeting held in Paris placed Pakistan in its grey list in June 2018 for the reason that
Pakistan is taking selective actions against terrorist groups in Pakistan, which has
failed the US policies in Afghanistan 26. Now, on one hand Pakistan is looking towards
any global financer as one of the option to pay off its external debt installment and on
the other, motherland is trying to avoid implications of its placement on a global
terror-financing watch list to avoid a very strong check on cash in and cash out flow 27.
Pakistan is now squeezed with only two options, first one to take a stand and let the
West do whatever it feels like on the pretext that Pakistan is doing enough and the
second one is to convince the global stake holders with a serious dialog in order to
waive off this threat.

Threat of becoming a Victim of EU Black List

After FATF, punitive action by the EU is also imminent. This all will have
serious repercussion on the fragile economy of Pakistan and in turn our National
Security.

Survival of our Nuclear Program for Minimum Credible

Deterrence against India
Although it seems to be an impossible scenario from Pakistan’s perspective,
but deteriorating economic indicators may dictate this nightmare someday, as it
happened to Ukraine 28, which had to remove its nuclear weapons in 1994 vide
Budapest Memorandum due to weak economic stature. Later, Russian absorption of
Crimea became an eye opener, despite the first clause of this Memorandum, which
clearly stated that the Russian Federation, UK and the US reaffirm their commitment
to Ukraine to respect the independence, sovereignty and the existing borders of
Ukraine. Many Ukrainians still argue that if Ukraine had not removed its nuclear
weapons, Russia would have been deterred from entering Ukraine. Pakistan needs to
improve its economic stature to preserve this strategic asset in face of large Indian
Army29.

Threat from Eastern Border

Major external threat to Pakistan has always been perceived to be emanating
from India, which is having eight times more GDP with hardly any external debt in
comparison to Pakistan30. Nevertheless, Pakistan has to maintain its large standing
Army, keep its nuclear program going for deterrence purpose, improving the law and
order situation of the country etc, which are all costly affairs. Any further

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Impact of Declining Macro-Economic Indicators 63

deterioration in economy will make our annual budget questionable to even sustain
our armed forces as well as keeping our national security and nuclear program going.

Threat from Local Militants

Pakistan’s Government has launched different operations like Operation
Zarb-e-Azb, Radd-ul-Fasaad etc against the terrorists inside the country, which needs
a constant flow of cash, without which these cost exuberant operations can become
counter-productive31.

Security of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Security of multibillion dollar infrastructure investment plan, regarded as a
‘game changer’ for Pakistan is a cost exuberant affair in terms of its security
requirement. It needs a constant flow of cash; otherwise same project will invite
physical intrusions through terrorist, as a threat to national security32 .

Maintaining a quantum flow of Intelligence Operations to

Thwart Internal and External Threats
Pakistan needs to keep a quality force to perform the national security task in
a befitting manner, however same requires a sizeable budget to sustain their activities.
Sound financial flow is the thrust line of success of any operation done by intelligence
agencies33.

Recommendations
Quality of governance matters to macroeconomic performance because it
provides a key foundation for the equitable and efficient allocation of resources,
including capital34. Pakistan needs to improve its governance 35. Good governance
requires smart organizational promoting transparency and accountability at all tiers.
Following steps may be taken to improve economic security and in turn national
security of Pakistan:
 Application of "FinTech or Financial Technology Model” i.e. use of IT to make
the financial activities transparent36 i.e. by automating all trading, insurance,
risk management etc activities to assist in improving the governance issues of
Pakistan37.
 In 90’s, numerous countries like Australia, South Korea, Malaysia, Turkey,
Uganda etc have implemented Result based Monitoring and Evaluation
(RBM&E) System in their country based on accountability and transparency
to effectively overcome economic crisis. Therefore Pakistan should needs to
implement the same for collecting and analyzing information on its
macroeconomic indicators38.

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64 Zaib Maroof and Obaid ur Rehman

 A road map be made, with timeline and priority by taking all stakeholders on
board to seek improvement in all macroeconomic indicators of a country.
 Pakistan’s national security division needs to have an economic security
section comprising of professionals to monitor the progress of roadmap of
each indicator, for their further discussion in all national security conferences
as agenda points.
 Pakistan needs to establish a transparent, broad and effective enabling policy
environment for investment.
 Comprehensive stabilization program, successfully implemented by Turkey
in 80’s may be followed to overcome trade deficit crisis, by having an
‘Outward Oriented Development Strategy’ aimed at financial openness and
increased international trade by removing trade barriers and improving
production of low cost products 39.
 Making free trade zones like UAE, and to build the human and institutional
capacities to implement them; however keeping local industry and
employment of own human resource in view. This in turn will improve our
ranking in the list of business friendly countries, which is currently ranked at
102 out of total 153 as published by Forbes 2017 40.
 There is a need to develop knowledge based economy to utilize more than
207 million human capital of Pakistan to a skillful human resource 41. Pakistan
Government should launch different skill development and vocational
training programs in consonance with international accreditation to develop
own HR, which will be available for their employment in developed
countries. This in turn will increase remittances from overseas employees.
 Fiscal policy should be revised and government should cut its public
spending to reduce its fiscal budget deficit. Moreover, a strict policy should
be made so that amount acquired from external debt and privatization etc
should be spent on profitable development projects.
 Pakistan needs to implement formal inflation-targeting program model
followed successfully by Turkey to combat economic crisis of FY 2001 42.
 State Bank reserves should be increased by reforming the tax structure to
boost economic condition of country 43 . It is recommended that tax
intelligence outfit may be made with legal powers to monitor financial data of
individuals in Pakistan.
 FATF issue may be handled at priority with sound planning instead of leaving
it for the last moment. All stakeholders of national security need to take the
situation seriously, as the cost of being isolated internationally cannot be
wished away by claiming that we have China’s support.
 While keeping the minimum possible nuclear deterrence, we need to convert
our nuclear program to fill the gap of our energy needs. In case, global
pressure of denuclearization is built due to our high external debts, we may

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Impact of Declining Macro-Economic Indicators 65

quote them the case of Ukraine to save our peaceful program in which
Ukraine was made non-nuclear in 1994, and resulted in its division.

Conclusion
Economic sovereignty and national security are the most important
dimension for the policy makers, in order to develop and implement the productive
strategies, and finally a grand policy. On the contrary, our above discussed prevalent
macroeconomic indicators prove that Pakistan is an economically starved nation;
hence, struggling hard to meet the bare minimum economic security needs for
survival. Instead of leaving the future of our generation on others, we need to think
and act now to improve our economic stature, otherwise our geographical layout at
cross roads Central Asia will make us prone to global economic invaders and making
us subservient to their dictates

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66 Zaib Maroof and Obaid ur Rehman

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