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Strategic
Strategic investment decision investment
making: the influence of decision making
pre-decision control mechanisms
133
Fadi Alkaraan
Aleppo University, Aleppo, Syria, and
Deryl Northcott
Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
Abstract
Purpose – This paper seeks to explore how aspects of pre-decision control mechanisms impact
managerial decision-making behaviour with regard to strategic investment projects.
Design/methodology/approach – This study adopted a mixed-method research approach.
Research evidence was collected using a questionnaire survey of 320 large UK companies and eight
semi-structured follow-up interviews with financial directors who responded to the questionnaire.
Findings – The study offers insights into the use and impact of pre-decision control mechanisms
such as: organizational strategy and operating objectives; expectations regarding the involvement of
organizational personnel; formal approval procedures; financial evaluation requirements;
pre-determined hurdle rates; established authorization levels and the influence of managerial intuition.
Originality/value – This study adds to prior understandings of capital investment practice by
employing mixed methods to examine how pre-decision controls shape the outcomes of strategic
investment decision making. Pre-decision controls have received little attention within the prior
literature, which focuses primarily on project financial analysis.
Keywords Strategic planning, Investments, Control systems, Decision making
Paper type Research paper
Introduction
Research on investment decision making has tended to concentrate on the techniques used
for project selection (Klammer and Walker, 1984; Klammer and Wilner, 1991; Kim and
Farragher, 1981; Pike, 1988, 1996; Pike and Wolfe, 1988; Abdel-Kader and Dugdale, 1998;
Arnold and Hatzopoulos, 2000). Yet, few studies have focused on understanding the
management control strategies related to strategic investment decisions (Butler et al., 1993;
Slagmulder, 1997). The primary purpose of management control is to ensure that
managers’ behaviour is consistent with organizational strategies. This can be achieved by
using appropriate control strategies to guide investment decision making, including
pre-decision control mechanisms. These pre-decision controls influence and shape capital
investment decisions before analysis techniques are even applied, by setting limits and
criteria against which projects are evaluated. Examples of such control strategies include
The authors are grateful to Professor Richard Pike (Bradford University, UK) for his advice on Qualitative Research in Accounting &
Management
the questionnaire instrument; Professors Trevor Hopper and Ted O’Leary (Manchester Business Vol. 4 No. 2, 2007
School, UK) for comments on an early draft of this paper; participants at the 2005 British pp. 133-150
q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Accounting Association Conference for their helpful comments; and the UK managers who 1176-6093
participated in the study. DOI 10.1108/11766090710754204
QRAM setting authorization levels and procedures to be followed, establishing investment
4,2 goals, setting hurdle rates and cash limits, prescribing analysis techniques to be used, and
identifying strategic areas for growth (Butler et al., 1993).
The purpose of this paper is to examine how pre-decision control mechanisms
influence managers’ strategic investment decision-making behaviour. Drawing on the
findings of a questionnaire survey and follow-up interviews, it reports the views of
134 financial directors of large UK companies on the role and significance of various
pre-decision controls. The findings suggest that strategic investment decisions are
partially shaped by pre-decision control mechanisms even before they are subjected to
formal evaluation. This extends prior research, which has focused primarily on the
financial analysis of investment projects, to highlight the choice and design of
pre-control mechanisms as an important, but under-researched, aspect of strategic
investment decision making.
The reminder of this paper is organized in five sections. The first provides an
overview of relevant literature. Section two outlines the research questions that formed
the focus of this study. Section three presents the method employed for this study,
including sample selection and data collection. Section four reports the results and is
followed by conclusions in section five.
The impact of these pre-decision controls has received little attention from empirical
researchers; this paper aims to address this gap.
The capital investment literature has, over many years, pointed to aspects of the
investment decision-making process that might be considered to act as pre-decision
controls. First, the need to align the investment decision process with the firm’s
strategy is well recognised (Slagmulder et al., 1995; Slagmulder, 1997; Abdel-Kader and
Dugdale, 1998). This suggests that an organisation’s strategic goals, and the operating
objectives that flow from it, act as pre-decision controls that shape the selection and
evaluation of investment projects. Also, formal organizational procedures dictate the
approach taken in justifying and analysing a potential investment by setting
pre-determined expenditure authorization levels, specifying accepted financial and risk
analysis tools, and setting project hurdle rates (McIntyre and Coulthurst, 1987; Pike,
1988; Arnold and Hatzopoulos, 2000). All of these factors help to shape the investment
choices made. Further, organizational policies regarding who (by role and/or seniority)
is involved in the decision-making process will go on to shape decision outcomes
(Petty et al., 1975; Scapens and Sale, 1981). The style of intuitive judgement exhibited
by key organizational decision-makers can also act as a pre-decision control,
influencing which projects are perceived as having “strategic” merit (Alkaraan and
Northcott, 2006).
Drawing on these factors identified in the literature, Figure 1 shows an overview of
how organizational pre-decision control mechanisms might influence managerial
behaviour at the various stages of the strategic investment decision-making processes.
The preceding discussion has revealed the following key issues in regard to the
analysis of strategic investment decisions. First, since effective investment decision
making is vital for the long-term strategic direction of an organization, it cannot be
seen as an independent activity but is an integral part of an organization’s strategy.
Second, an appropriate management control system is a key means of providing
adequate strategic guidance to the investment process. Therefore, it is appropriate to
explore the relative impact of various organizational control mechanisms on strategic
investment decision making. Third, while the use of financial analysis has been well
QRAM
4,2 Organizational
Control
Systems
136
Post-decision
Pre-decision control mechanisms
control to monitor the
mechanisms performance of the
project
Figure 1.
The influence of
pre-decision control
mechanisms on the Identification Evaluation Selection Implementation
strategic investment
decision-making process Strategic investment decision-making process
examined in the capital investment literature, limited attention has been paid to other
stages of the investment decision-making process such as: the initial development of
investment proposals; their early screening to ensure that they are compatible with
organizational strategy; and those aspects of project selection that are shaped by
prescribed evaluation and authorization routines (Arnold and Hatzopoulos, 2000).
These pre-decision controls are likely to have a significant impact on investment
decision-making processes and outcomes.
Survey questionnaire
Ten statements on strategic investment decision-making processes were adopted
from previous surveys of capital budgeting practice (Slagmulder et al., 1995;
Van Cauwenbergh et al., 1996) and from our own experience in the field. Adopting or
adapting questions from previous related studies was necessary to compare our
findings with previous related studies and to allow reliability to be assessed. Questions
concerning these statements required managers to indicate their level of agreement
with a statement by assigning a score on a five-point Likert scale (where 1 indicated
“strongly disagree” and 5 denoted “strongly agree”).
The study sample was selected from the largest UK manufacturing companies on
the assumption that these firms make substantial capital investment expenditures and
could be expected to undertake strategic investment projects. Our sample comprised
top managers in 320 companies selected from eight different manufacturing groups in
the Financial Analysis Made Easy (FAME) database using the standard industrial
classification, UK-code-1992. The FAME database is a computerised service provided
by CD-ROM Publishing Co. Ltd (London) and Jordan & Sons Ltd (Bristol). The database
identifies companies by criteria such as industry, geographical area, turnover and
number of employees and provides monthly updated information.
The selected companies satisfied the following criteria:
.
minimum turnover of £100 million for the year ended 2001;
.
minimum of 1,000 employees for the year 2001; and
.
minimum total assets of £50 million for the year 2001.
A covering letter attached to each questionnaire outlined the purpose of the survey and
assured the confidentiality of the information supplied by each respondent. A follow-up
fax was sent to non-respondents on 12 December 2002 and further reminders were sent
out on 17 December. By the end of January 2003, 132 questionnaires had been received,
giving a response rate of 41.25 per cent. The sample size dropped from 320 to 271 because
49 questionnaires were returned unanswered. So, 83 usable questionnaires were
included in the analysis giving a net usable response rate of 30.63 per cent (83 completed
questionnaires/271 potential respondents). This response rate is comparable with those
of prior similar surveys (Lefley, 1994; Chen, 1995; Slagmulder et al., 1995; Joseph et al.,
1996; Abdel-Kader and Dugdale, 1998; Arnold and Hatzopoulos, 2000).
The possibility of non-response bias was examined by comparing the 83 responding
companies to the total sample in regard to their turnover, number of employees and
total assets. The results of parametric independent t-tests indicated that there is no
QRAM statistically significant difference between the means of the responding companies and
4,2 the total sample in terms of turnover ( p-value ¼ 0.651), total assets ( p-value ¼ 0.414)
and number of employees ( p-value ¼ 0.587). To further examine the possibility of
non-response bias, answers to survey questions from respondents who replied without
follow-up reminder (62 companies) were compared with answers from respondents
who replied only after the reminder (21 respondents). There was no significant
138 difference between the two groups of answers. These results suggest that more
respondents would not have changed the results of the study.
Follow-up interviews
All respondents to the survey questionnaire were asked to indicate whether they were
willing to participate in a follow-up interview; only eight said they were. These eight
respondents were from companies in the chemical (three), machinery (two),
beverage, vehicles and mining industries. They were interviewed during
July-September 2003 – seven by telephone and one face-to-face according to the
respondents’ preferences. The purpose of the follow-up interviews was to explore
questionnaire responses in greater depth and to seek elaboration on respondents’
perceptions of their strategic investment decision-making experiences.
Each interviewee was provided with a copy of the interview questions (Appendix)
in advance of the interview. These questions served as a checklist to ensure that all
relevant issues were covered during the interview, but were addressed with a
considerable degree of flexibility. That is, if an interviewee showed interest in a specific
issue and wished to discuss it further, he or she was encouraged to do so. On the other
hand, if the interviewee was unwilling or unable to say much on an issue, the question
was not pursued. In addition to the specified questions, other relevant issues that arose
were included in the discussion. All interviews were tape-recorded and later
transcribed.
Where appropriate, excerpts from the interviews are used to illustrate the points
made in discussing the findings. The identities of the participating organizations
are disguised for confidentiality reasons. All organizations are referred to by their
industry only.
Findings
Figure 1 shows an overview of how organizational pre-decision control mechanisms
might influence managerial behaviour at the various stages of the strategic investment
decision-making process. Each of these pre-decision control dimensions is now
considered in relation to the questions posed in the questionnaire survey.
The results are shown in Table I. Interviewees were subsequently asked to provide
their comments on these results.
Strategic
(1) (5)
Strongly (2) (3) (4) Strongly Mean investment
disagree Disagree Neutral Agree agree score decision making
(per cent) (per cent) (per cent) (per cent) (per cent) (out of 5)
The majority of managers (89 per cent) agreed that they had formal procedures for
evaluating strategic investment decisions. They also agreed (62 per cent) that lower
level managers in the organization were involved in strategic investment decisions. All
eight financial managers involved in the follow-up interviews noted that their
organization specified a standard presentation format for investment proposals. Most
also had standard procedures that contained instructions on how to perform a detailed
project analysis and how to deal with the key issues of project benefits, costs and risks.
This suggests that originators of investment proposals in these organizations were
required to describe and justify of the proposed investment according to
pre-determined guidelines. The interviews reinforced that identifying investment
opportunities tended to be the responsibility of the business unit, with other
organizational group(s) taking the lead on project evaluation:
The Corporate Department is usually involved in evaluating strategic investment decisions,
with participation from Finance and from the Chief Executive’s Office. We have an internal
department of four people who are responsible for looking at acquisition and investment
opportunities in the business. They report to me and the Chief Executive Officer
(Vice President Group Finance Director, Chemicals Company).
The business unit identifies investment opportunities in general and proposes the ideas to the
Business Evaluation Department and the technical evaluation groups . . . We evaluate
business proposals using consistent guidelines developed by [the company]. Evaluation
guidelines used when considering a project are not simply to create value, but to define the
project in a way that maximises value . . . the guidelines incorporate a valuation methodology
that includes net present value, cash flows and the earnings effect of an investment. The full
range of economic and non-economic impacts of the project will be evaluated. Those will all
then be reflected in the proposal that comes to the investment committee (Business
Development Executive, Business Evaluation Department, Mining Company).
In both of these cases business proposals were evaluated using consistent guidelines
developed by the company. These pre-decision guidelines shaped the outcome of
decisions made and so were a major influence on strategic investment decision making
within these organizations.
Managers in different functional positions may have different perceptions of criteria
used to evaluate strategic investment decisions due to their varying goals and interests
that result from functional, hierarchical, professional and personal factors (Dean and
Sharfman, 1996). For example, an engineering company participating in this study had
an organizational hierarchy regarding identifying investment opportunities, but each
QRAM business unit prepared budgets and financial plans in accordance with a defined
4,2 format, which included the consideration of risks. Management at the corporate centre
reviewed the budgets and financial plans with the business units and a summary was
presented to the board for approval:
In general, there are two levels of identifying strategic investments: (1) the individual
business, which generally concentrates on the competitive position; and (2) the corporate
140 level, which assesses whether the investment will generate sufficient returns for their
shareholders . . . The individual business is basically identifying investments for each
business and in the right place, because it interfaces directly with the market. And there is the
corporate level of [the company], which has to assess whether we are placing our resources in
that area which is going to generate the greatest returns for our shareholders (Group Finance
Director, Engineering Company).
Financial return is of supreme importance. It’s the most important factor that we look at when
we think about new projects. If we can’t come up with a financial rationale for the project,
then in almost all circumstances we won’t go ahead with it (Group Finance Director,
Manufacturing Company).
However, despite their perceived importance in this study, quantitative accounting
controls may fail to connect with the kind of investment decision making required to
bring strategic success. Indeed, it has been widely noted that financial evaluation
techniques are inadequate for assessing strategic investment proposals; they can only
function as a guideline, since strategic investment decisions involve so many
uncertainties, risks and judgements (Butler et al., 1991; Carr et al., 1994; Horngren et al.,
2002; Dempsey, 2003; Alkaraan and Northcott, 2006).
Uncertainty, in particular, is perceived as an unavoidable element of strategic
investment decision making. Uncertainty concerns the difficulty of determining the
validity of inputs, i.e. gathering data and information on the decision process. In some
cases, it is just not possible to get complete information about the project being
considered. Also, managers suffer from cognitive limitations that prevent them from
following a completely rational-analytic approach. Accordingly, they satisfice rather
than optimise in their information search behaviour and may not be sure of the
reliability of the information that underpins their capital investment decisions. For
example, a Pharmaceutical Company participating in this study spent more than
$3 billion on R&D in 2002, but as a result of the complexities and uncertainties
associated with pharmaceutical research could not be sure that products currently
under development would achieve success in laboratory, animal or clinical trials and be
granted the regulatory approvals needed to market them successfully:
There is a lot of uncertainty as to future production and prediction, and of course one is
placing enormous reliance on the judgements of the management team that are making the
proposal (Group Finance Director, Pharmaceutical Company).
Other interviewees acknowledged the need to progress decisions in the face of
uncertainty, despite the unreliability of financial analyses:
QRAM If you want to prepare to make an investment by collecting all the information you might
want and being 100 per cent happy with the integrity of that information, you might
4,2 considerably minimise the risk, but it’s likely that you’ll miss the opportunity because you
spend so much time gathering the information (Group Finance Director, Engineering
Company).
The findings of this study in regard to the use of financial analysis techniques do not
142 seem to accord with those of Van Cauwenbergh et al. (1996), therefore. Although
financial analysis does seem to play a pre-decision control role in many firms, it is
generally perceived as more influential in the final project evaluation and approval
stages and somewhat less timely and useful as a pre-decision control tool.
(1) (5)
Strongly (2) (3) (4) Strongly Mean
disagree Disagree Neutral Agree agree score
(per cent) (per cent) (per cent) (per cent) (per cent) (out of 5)
There is a long-term business strategy and there is an annual plan which is obviously
consistent with strategy. We have a strategy that is revisited every year by the board, and
there is an annual plan approved by the board, which is consistent with strategy. All
investments really must be aligned with that strategy (The Vice President Corporate Finance,
Pharmaceutical Company).
The formulation of strategic goals and priorities can, therefore, be seen as an influential
pre-decision control in the strategic investment process, having a significant impact on
investment choices before projects are even evaluated and often superseding the
importance of financial analysis outcomes.
To identify the key organizational objectives that shape capital investment
decisions, respondents were asked to indicate the recent (i.e. over the past five years)
importance of various indicators of a capital project’s contribution to their company’s
success. Suggested indicators included: profitability (net profit), efficiency (low costs),
growth (increase in total assets/sales), shareholder wealth (dividends plus share price
appreciation), utilisation of resources (e.g. ROI), economic value added, market
leadership (market share), technological leadership (innovation, creativity) and
survival (avoiding bankruptcy). The results are shown in Table IV.
(2)
(1) Below (3) (5) Mean
Not average Average (4) Very score
important importance importance Important important (out of 5)
(per cent) (per cent) (per cent) (per cent) (per cent) (per cent)
Appendix
150
Interview questions on Your organization’s strategic investment decisions
The primary purpose of this interview is to explore and expand on the responses you provided to our
earlier mailed questionnaire. The key questions we will cover are:
1. How does your company identify and select strategic investment opportunities?
2. If your organization had formal procedures for evaluating strategic investment decisions, how
do you think they impact on the investment decision-making activity?
3. How are various managers and personnel, at different levels of the organization, involved in (i)
proposing and (ii) deciding on potential investment projects?
4. Why are the chosen financial analysis techniques (as per your questionnaire response) used?
Does the analysis depend on the particular project, or are there specified organizational
guidelines?
5. What influence do you think financial analysis results have (i) at the early stage of investment
analysis and (ii) in the final choice of investments?
6. How important is a project’s expected financial outcome to the accept/reject decision? What
other aspects of a project might make it appealing or unappealing?
7. How is corporate strategy taken into account in making investment decisions?
8. Do you think managerial intuition plays a big role in your organizations’ strategic investment
decision making? Or are decisions guided more by formal systems and analysis than by
managerial judgement?
Table AI. There will also be the opportunity to discuss any other issues that you consider important in how your
Questions provided to organization makes strategic investment decisions
participants in the
follow-up interviews Thank you for your participation
Corresponding author
Deryl Northcott can be contacted at: deryl.northcott@aut.ac.nz