transformed
marketplace:
A playbook for LNG
businesses
KPMG International
kpmg.com/LNG
Overview
1 LNG markets are going through significant
change in the form of increased customer
This means questioning the choices that businesses
make — ranging from the formulation of their
focus commercial strategy to the functioning of day-to-day
operations.
The LNG industry is witnessing a big shift
towards buyer power fuelled by the following Future-proofing the business amid such substantial
converging and compounding forces. market shifts demands new ways of working. We see
six essential accelerators for such a transformation.
— Supply competition from diverse sources
and very different supply options.
— Market and portfolio evolution in options, Business model
hedging and tradeable indices.
— Destination flexibility in contracts and in
more adaptable regasification.
1 Driving demand and establishing alternate
business models
2
— Demand drivers and dynamics in
Optimizing supply for customer portfolio
positioning of gas versus other energy
sources.
These changes are reorienting the industry
around customer value and the role of gas
3 Optimizing portfolio terms
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Contents
Significant and lasting change in the
02
LNG market is affecting both buyers
and suppliers
08
to rethink business and operating
models to protect capture value
A call to action
16
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
2 Winning in a transformed marketplace
Significant
and lasting
change in the
LNG market
is affecting
both buyers
and suppliers
The LNG industry is bracing
itself for a new era of buyer
power, driven by slowing
traditional demand, the
proliferation of new LNG supply
projects and rolling off of long-
term, oil-indexed contracts.
At the same time, a reduction
in regas costs and the role of
gas as an accelerator to clean
energy systems, including
growing electrification as well
as increased transportation
and heating use, also presents
opportunities for suppliers.
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Winning in a transformed marketplace 3
1 Supply competition
On the supply side, new supply and supply options are For now, buyers have the advantage and are making smaller,
combining with uncontracted volumes to drive down prices. shorter term deals. New buyers attracted to lower cost and
On the demand side, buyer power has emerged. flexible supply continue to enter the market and are starting
to absorb some of this wave of new LNG supply.
Implications
Years
prices or compete with marginal cost production as 0.60
6
long-term contracts roll-off.
0.40
4
— Challenged to bring on new capacity without cost
improvement as older, fully depreciated assets sell at 0.20 2
marginal costs. 0
0.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Average volume of contracts
Average length of contracts
Buyers and suppliers LNG nominal production capacity and total trade
— Benefit through market growth driven from new
(MMTPA), 2000–2035
demand potential as gas used as cheaper feedstock 600
for power producers and chemical manufacturers, and
from greater gas use in transportation, heating and 500
broader electrification. 400
mmtpa
300
200
100
0
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
4 Winning in a transformed marketplace
2 Market evolution
The days of high international oil, high LNG prices and the price. New hubs create market tools for managing price risk
singular arbitrage value of placing Henry Hub gas in such via hedging and options, but will take time to attract liquidity.
markets are an ever distant memory. Oversupply has
Greater buyer power, an excess of uncontracted LNG,
coincided with the fall in oil price and the LNG glut has brought
a greater diversity of players and more flexible import
LNG prices down and narrowed the arbitrage with Henry
infrastructure is driving a shift toward increased spot trade
Hub prices. A more commoditized market with new players
and shorter term contracts. In the short-term, suppliers will
is spawning more variety of pricing. US suppliers continue
be challenged with existing cost structures and may perceive
to offer formulas based on Henry Hub prices. Singapore is
this as negative. However, in the medium-term, it makes LNG
promoting itself as a pricing hub and price reporting agencies
more attractive to buyers, so those that can improve their
now quote Middle East assessments (based on delivery to
competitive costs have a greater addressable market.
Egypt) alongside the established JKT (Japan-Korea-Taiwan)
Implications
160 14
Buyers
140 12
— Likely to maximize purchases of spot, and reduce
120
long-term contract commitments; with corresponding 10
exposure if the market tightens earlier than expected. 100
$/MMbtu
8
$/bbl
80
Suppliers 6
60
— Will have to accept and sustain production at lower
4
prices to place volumes and grow demand. 40
20 2
Buyers, suppliers and traders
0 0
— Seek development of gas price indices, and support
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
hedging instruments and derivatives markets to
optimize and de-risk portfolios.
Rising LNG supply will weigh on spot LNG prices, potentially widening
the discount to long-term, oil-linked contract LNG.
Source: www.eia.gov
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Winning in a transformed marketplace 5
3 Destination flexibility
Suppliers are coming under pressure to remove destination extend buyers into the trading space and in turn, create
clauses, which forbids reselling to other locations. Removal further competition for existing traders as well as suppliers
of these clauses frees up buyers to resell when they are seeking to place their volumes in markets in competition with
overcommitted or simply when a better trading opportunity buyers/traders.
presents. This will help buyers optimize their portfolios,
Implications
4 Demand drivers
Cheaper terminals mean smaller, less creditworthy, seasonal impossible even a decade ago, driving rapid growth in
or flexible importers can be accessed in a way that was numerous niche markets.
Implications
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
6 Winning in a transformed marketplace
In the
transforming
market, LNG
businesses
need to make
decisions like
downstream
businesses
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Winning in a transformed marketplace 7
The LNG business is shifting from a traditional model, dynamic, interactive market where the roles of producers,
with fixed long-term contracts and destinations, to more shippers, traders and buyers are blurred, and where it is
focus on optimizing value along the value chain, in a more important to create demand than to find it.
Integrated
producers
(e.g. Shell, BP)
Traditional
buyers
(e.g. JERA)
Narrow
participation
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
8 Winning in a transformed marketplace
In this new
world there
is a need
to rethink
business and
operating
models to
capture value
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Winning in a transformed marketplace 9
LNG businesses need to rethink their commercial strategy and whether their internal ways of working, cost structures and
capabilities are aligned to servicing the changing markets. This means questioning the choices which businesses make, ranging
from the formulation of their commercial strategy to the functioning of day-to-day operations. LNG businesses can assess their
readiness, and accelerate their transformation in this fast-changing market, by asking themselves a set of questions about their
business model, market and customers; their operating model, processes, technology, structure, people and culture; and their
measurement and incentives. We see six accelerators essential to consider for such a transformation.
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
10 Winning in a transformed marketplace
Suppliers and buyers should consider extending from a to be reoriented around customer value. The current glut in
pure-play position to a more active role in the value chain supply puts a premium on creating and accessing markets
and in creating new partnerships to do so. Gas through LNG as well as creating a need for a more flexible and extended
is ideally placed to expand its role as one of the world's key value chain.
energy sources in a cleaner future. But the business needs
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Winning in a transformed marketplace 11
Delivering value to end-users is taking on much more a need to rebalance volumes around spot/short-term
importance. This includes utilizing a portfolio approach contracts.
that includes trading in the market instead of using one's
With growth in options such as spot sales and financial
own capacity.
derivatives and rapidly shifting pricing and buyer expectations
Today, many businesses are set up on the assumption toward optionality, reinforced by removal of destination
of individual point-to-point sales based on assets in clauses, the opportunity is to offer portfolio management
source regions built off legacy contracts. This has led to through the central management of product flows and
considerable latent exposure under liberalized markets delivery, in a way that can create greater value for businesses.
and changing electricity generation requirements, creating
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
12 Winning in a transformed marketplace
With tightening margins, increased spot sales and short- KPMG's work on some of the highest-profile contract
to medium-term contracts, we foresee increased tension renegotiations have highlighted key strategies and bargaining
between suppliers and buyers. Both will need to reassess positions, and that neither buyers or suppliers can afford to be
their in-house capabilities for such negotiations. complacent or singular.
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Winning in a transformed marketplace 13
Realizing project cost and cost improvement opportunities A recurring theme in the LNG experience is that each LNG
is challenging in complex LNG environments. The project creates unique stresses on the contracting approach
experience of the LNG sector of mega projects with mega and associated risk management driven by:
cost overruns and delays reinforces the imperative for
— scale and complexity including the often conflicting
players to refocus on improving project development,
objectives of participating shareholders, governments,
including exercising the supply chain, reducing complexity
consortia and joint ventures.
and adopting a commercial mindset to improve capital
efficiency and capital costs. — bespoke contracting and risk carrying arrangements,
site-specific requirements, leadership and management
The cyclical nature of the LNG industry suggests an
team capabilities, unknown local supply chain participants
opportunity for fewer, higher-quality projects to be
and local labor.
sanctioned — leveraging improved commercial value
that includes revisiting contracting strategies and project Below are areas of focus and opportunity to navigate the
execution structures. high-risk environment of LNG projects (all of which are
obvious, but to date, elusive in realizing).
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
14 Winning in a transformed marketplace
Increased competition can be met by a relentless focus on — Are all areas (strategic and tactical) covered and
asset performance. This means lower capex and opex as well prioritized based on value and risk?
as maximum possible throughput.
— Do the opportunities capture the full value available
Most suppliers have an ongoing continuous improvement and can they be accelerated?
program, but these may fall short of addressing their
— What will be delivered when, and what is the level of
needs in an increasingly competitive market. By answering
assurance on delivery?
three questions, companies can identify gaps and
additional opportunities: Using benchmarks from related industries — validated
through work with LNG assets and using the rigor of our
proven external investor lens approach — we typically see the
following sources of value for asset operators:
Reliability
— Applying best practice downstream approaches
to achieve reliability targets of 99 percent.
25%
Turnaround
— Achieving top quartile TA duration via scope
reduction and balancing schedule risk with critical
path reduction
Maintenance
20%
— Resetting performance to achieve high
performance at lower costs (e.g. achieving
hand on tool time of more than 40 percent).
Procurement
15% — Reducing 3rd party spend by
a) maximizing on-contract spend
b) reducing the number of low value suppliers and
c) establishing robust category management
Shipping
— Potentially reducing vessel numbers by
analyzing true utilization (i.e. taking account
of factors such as slow steaming) and
15%
optimizing capacity.
Tax
— Utilizing permitted tax deductions, exemptions
10% and allowances to reduce tax burden
Support functions
— Optimizing the size and service levels of the
support organization by comparing with best in
class performance.
10%
5%
The performance improvement prize is large. Based on KPMG work in the sector, suppliers have the opportunity
to achieve 20–35 percent unit operating cost improvement in LNG assets.
Source: KPMG analysis, 2017
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Winning in a transformed marketplace 15
A significant majority of LNG producers operate under a JV of improvements including cost rationalization and
agreement. overall operating and development asset performance
improvements, implemented new operating models keyed
Realizing many of the opportunities highlighted earlier,
to sustaining improved performance, applied innovation to
both for execution of capital projects as well as operational
update process and practices to achieve better performance
efficiencies, require businesses to overcome suboptimal JV
and attracted new investors based on improved performance.
arrangements and operations.
Making material step changes requires JV engagement and
This requires JV partners to act as active asset managers and
improved JV Agreements to promote comprehensive cross-
owners instead of passive shareholders.
functional programs in major assets keyed on performance.
Where JV partners have played the role of active asset This requires companies to focus on:
managers, businesses have been able to realize a set
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
16 Winning in a transformed marketplace
A call to action
Changes in the LNG market
are substantial and lasting.
We believe that businesses
need to move fast and
proactively to take steps to
mitigate risks as well as exploit
new opportunities. There is
a premium to be earned in
the form of new customer
relationships and capturing
new markets as first entrants.
At a minimum, those who do
not act now will suffer both
reduced market share and a
high cost burden.
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Winning in a transformed marketplace 17
A call to action
1 2 3
Understand where the Prioritize key areas where Changes to an operating
value will be created and businesses should focus their model are interrelated.
use this to focus on the transformation effort.
Processes,
business and operating
The six accelerators highlighted infrastructure,
model changes.
in this paper include: capabilities and
1. Demand creation and incentives all need to be
alternative business models considered to achieve
the desired change.
2. Supply optimization
3. Commercial term optimization
4. Improving costs and
managing risks in LNG projects
5. Unit cost leadership
6. JV optimization
© 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
Contacts
Mary Hemmingsen Mary Hemmingsen is a regular author on the LNG industry and
Global LNG Leader speaker, moderator and chair at LNG conferences around the world,
KMPG in Canada and brings over 25 years of experience as an energy business leader in
+1 403 691 8247 asset management and related business development. This includes
mhemmingsen@kpmg.ca leadership in the development and delivery of policy, strategy, initiatives
and projects for energy, power, utilities and related infrastructure
businesses in a range of capacities in both the public and private sector
and for major utilities and global energy and asset managers. She
advises a number of the largest LNG global players on their interests in
development, contracting and portfolio management.
Jeremy Kay Jeremy is a Partner and Global Strategy Lead for the Energy and Natural
Global Strategy Leader, ENR Resources sector. With over 20 years' experience in oil and gas markets,
KPMG in the UK he has supported major LNG customers and suppliers to develop
+44 20 76944540 strategies across the entire upstream to downstream value chain to
jeremy.kay@kpmg.co.uk deliver incremental value through operations, end market development
for gas, operating models and major LNG contract renegotiations. He
has worked across 18 countries and regularly represents KPMG in the
market on oil and gas value improvement strategies.
kpmg.com/LNG
kpmg.com/energy
kpmg.com/socialmedia
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Publication name: Winning in a transformed marketplace: A playbook for LNG businesses
Publication number: 134249-G
Publication date: April 2017