Wind power prices now lower than the cost of natural gas

This week, the US Department of Energy released a report that looks back on the
state of wind power in the US by running the numbers on 2018. The analysis shows
that wind hardware prices are dropping, even as new turbine designs are increasing
the typical power generated by each turbine. As a result, recent wind farms have
gotten so cheap that you can build and operate them for less than the expected cost
of buying fuel for an equivalent natural gas plant. Wind is even cheaper at the
moment because of a tax credit given to renewable energy generation. But that
credit is in the process of fading out, leading to long term uncertainty in a power
market where demand is generally stable or dropping. A lot of GigaWatts 2018 saw
about 7.6 GigaWatts of new wind capacity added to the grid, accounting for just
over 20 percent of the US' capacity additions. This puts it in third place behind
natural gas and solar power. That's less impressive than it might sound, however,
given that things like coal and nuclear are essentially at a standstill. Because
the best winds aren't evenly distributed in the US, there are areas, like parts of
the Great Plains, where wind installations were more than half of the new power
capacity installed. Overall, that brings the US' installed capacity up to nearly
100GW. That leaves only China ahead of the US, although the gap is substantial with
China having more than double the US' installed capacity. It still leaves wind
supplying only 6.5 percent of the US' total electricity in 2018, though, which
places it behind a dozen other countries. Four of them—Denmark, Germany, Ireland,
and Portugal—get over 20 percent of their total electric needs supplied by wind,
with Denmark at over 40 percent. That figure is notable, as having over 30 percent
of your power supplied by an intermittent source is a challenge for many existing
grids. But there are a number of states that have now cleared the 30 percent
threshold: Kansas, Iowa, and Oklahoma, with the two Dakotas not far behind. The
Southwest Power Pool, which serves two of those states plus wind giant Texas, is
currently getting a quarter of its electricity from wind. (Texas leads the US with
25GW of installed wind capacity.) Enlarge / Despite having a lot of wind installed,
the US uses far more power from other sources. US DOE So while wind remains a small
factor in the total electricity market in the US, there are parts of the country
where it's a major factor in the generating mix. And, given the prices, those parts
are likely to expand. Plummeting prices In the US, the prices for wind power had
risen up until 2009, when power purchase agreements for wind-generated electricity
peaked at about $70 per MegaWatt-hour. Since then, there's been a very steady
decline, and 2018 saw the national average fall below $20/MW-hr for the first time.
Again, there's regional variation with the Great Plains seeing the lowest prices,
in some cases reaching the mid-teens. That puts wind in an incredibly competitive
position. The report uses an estimate of future natural gas prices that show an
extremely gradual rise of about $10/MW-hr out to 2050. But natural gas—on its own,
without considering the cost of a plant to burn it for electricity—is already over
$20/MW-hr. That means wind sited in the center of the US is already cheaper than
fueling a natural gas plant, and wind sited elsewhere is roughly equal. Enlarge /
Those black bars are the price of gas. Blue circles are wind, while yellow are
solar. US DOE The report notes that photovoltaics have reached prices that are
roughly equivalent to wind, but those got there from a starting point of about
$150/MW-hr in 2009. Thus, unless natural gas prices reverse the expected trend and
get cheaper, wind and solar will remain the cheapest sources of new electricity in
the US. The levelized cost of electricity, which eliminates the impact of
incentives and subsidies on the final prices, places wind below $40/MW-hr in 2018.
The cheapest form of natural gas generation was roughly $10 more per MegaWatt-hour.
Note that, as recently as 2015, the US' Energy Information Agency was predicting
that wind's levelized cost in 2020 would be $74/MW-hr. Built on better tech Why has
wind gotten much cheaper than expected? Part of it is in improved technology. The
report notes that in 2008, there were no turbines installed in the US with rotors
above 100 meters in diameter. In 2018, 99 percent of them were over 100m, and the
average size was 116m. In general, the turbine's generator grew in parallel. The
average capacity for 2018 installs was 2.4MW, which is up five percent from the
year previous. The area swept by the blades goes up with the square of their
length. Thus, even though blade length and rated generating capacity are going up
in parallel, the actual potential energy input from the blades is growing much
faster. This has the effect of lowering what's called the specific power of the
wind turbine. These lower specific power turbines work better in areas where the
wind isn't as strong or consistent. On the truly windy days, they'll saturate the
ability of the generator to extract power, while on a more typical day when the
winds are lighter or erratic, they'll get more out of them. So even though more
turbines are being built at sites without the best wind resources, we're generating
more power per turbine. The capacity factor—the amount of power generated relative
to the size of the generator—for projects built in the previous four years has now
hit 42 percent, a figure that would once have required offshore wind. That's
dragged the capacity factor of the entire US wind industry up to over 35 percent
for the first time last year. Enlarge / Each year, the capacity factor of newly
installed projects is typically higher than that of the years prior. US DOE The
economics of these low-wind designs are so good that 23 existing sites were
"repowered," with new, larger rotors replacing older hardware on existing towers.
One thing that may be encouraging this is that older plants (those a decade old or
more) seem to see a small dip in capacity factor over time. But the reason for this
isn't clear at this point, so it's something that will have to be tracked in the
future. Better grid management also helped the economics of wind. At times, strong
winds can cause wind farms to produce an excess of power relative to demand,
causing a farm's output to be reduced. This process, called curtailment, remained a
small factor, with only two percent of the potential generation lost this way. Put
differently, if the curtailed electricity had been used, it would have only raised
the average capacity factor by 0.7 percentage points. Overall, given these
economics, it's clear that the economic case for wind energy will remain solid as
the tax credits for the construction of renewable energy fade out over the next few
years. But the vanishing credits are causing lots of developers to start projects
sooner rather than later, so we may see a bubble in construction for the next
couple of years, followed by a dramatic drop off.

Washington Digest: Ernst pushes wind power measure, Fischer seeks ethanol waiver
changes

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East Texas inventor concentrating on wind power technology

Photo: Sarah A. Miller, AP In this July 17, 2019 photo, inventor George Arthur
Spencer of the Cross Roads community southwest of Athens, Texas, shows off a small
model and larger prototype of his three-dimensional wind power technology at his
home. It's designed to harvest wind energy. Spencer contends his 3D wind-power
technology is a major upgrade over traditional wind turbines. (Sarah A.
Miller/Tyler Morning Telegraph via AP) less In this July 17, 2019 photo, inventor
George Arthur Spencer of the Cross Roads community southwest of Athens, Texas,
shows off a small model and larger prototype of his three-dimensional wind power
technology ... more Photo: Sarah A. Miller, AP East Texas inventor concentrating on
wind power technology ATHENS, Texas (AP) — Some people say a uniquely different
invention of George Arthur Spencer on his property in the Cross Roads community
near Athens looks like an alien antenna. The Tyler Morning Telegraph reports
Spencer jokes that it is a feeder for giraffes. In a serious vein, Spencer, who has
more than 20 patents, said his latest invention is three-dimensional wind power
technology designed to harvest wind energy. In less technical terms, it is a new
concept in windmills similar to wind turbines in West Texas. Hassan El-Kishky,
chair of the electrical engineering department at the University of Texas at Tyler,
said Spencer's invention "sounds like a good idea." There will need to be an
analysis to see if it will actually be feasible in terms of cost, and whether it
will add to present technology and realize improvement in efficiency as well as
reliability, El-Kishky said. Spencer contends his 3D wind-power technology is a
major upgrade over traditional wind turbines. He calculates that his 3D wind power
will produce much more electricity per acre per hour than a traditional wind
turbine — 50 to 100 times more power per acre. Apart from not being a 24-hours-a-
day, seven-days-a week electrical source like nuclear power, Spencer projects his
3D wind-power technology can outproduce a nuclear power plant on an equivalent area
of land. He quickly acknowledged his invention will not replace nuclear plants,
which provide a steady source of power, while supplemental energies like wind and
solar power can only be used when they are available. Having built a feasibility
model of his 3D wind-power instrument, Spencer next plans a working prototype — a
preproduction model. He is looking for a partner for his company, G Sharp Labs, and
hopes to find a manufacturer of existing wind turbines — a major corporation —
willing to produce his invention using his technology. Billy Calcote,
professor/coordinator of electrical/electronic controls technology at Tyler Junior
College's West Campus, noted there is a hunger for alternative energy sources like
wind and solar. He pointed out that wind turbines require a lot of maintenance. If
Spencer has a better design, Calcote said, "he may have clinched longevity of wind
power generation." Spencer said the 3D wind-power technology is very user-friendly
as far as repair and maintenance. Repairing or replacing a generator on a
traditional wind turbine requires a big crane or helicopter, Spencer said, but a
generator could be changed out on his windmill with a couple of bucket trucks like
those used to service streetlights. Spencer maintains his invention is
environmentally friendly. Although wind turbines spin very fast, his device turns
very slowly, which is safer for birds, and it makes virtually no noise, unlike the
whistling noise from traditional wind turbines, Spencer said. His 3D wind power is
not as limited as traditional wind turbines, Spencer said. "They have a narrow band
of wind speeds that can produce great amounts of electricity. Mine is different; I
have a lot of design considerations," Spencer said. His computer will tell what
shape of device is needed for a particular wind condition with a certain kind of
power, he added. Also, his 3D wind power technology can be loaded into semitrucks,
in contrast to big blades that people see going down the highway for traditional
wind turbines, Spencer said. Spencer spent approximately 18 months working on his
3D wind-power technology feasibility model. The U.S. Patent & Trademark Office
has issued a patent in his name for the concept of his invention and he is pursuing
patents for the parts. Spencer calls his invention 3D wind-power technology because
when he visualizes the wind, he sees in his mind cubes of wind coming at his
invention as opposed to just wind blowing. Whenever the devices produce excessive
electricity, Spencer anticipates he will convert that into hydrogen, which he plans
to sell to farmers to run farm equipment at less cost than diesel. The 3D wind-
power technology is the latest in a string of inventions by Spencer, who says he
has very little formal education. Spencer failed first grade. In the fifth grade,
he moved to California and performed on placement tests at the second-grade level
in reading and writing, but at the 14th-grade level in mathematics. He quit school
after the ninth grade. He said educators can thwart creative thinking. Spencer got
his first taste of problem-solving when he was about 7 and helped his older brother
build a gas-powered wooden bicycle to deliver newspapers. His brother needed the
bike because his legs were withered from polio. Spencer took no credit for the
project and remembers that the bike was his brother's idea. Spencer is from a
family of migrant workers from Oklahoma. He recalled at times when he was growing
up living in ditches beside the road and in houses with dirt floors. He raked
leaves to make his bed. Spencer said, "We did whatever we had to to survive." Yet
he added, "I had a wonderful life and wonderful parents. We all worked together
picking cotton." After dropping out of school, Spencer lived at a uranium mine and
also became a cowboy and did ranching. When he was 16, he joined the Navy, serving
two stints totaling 10 years and received his initial training in electronics,
including radios, radar and cryptology. After his Navy service, Spencer spent more
than 18 years in the electronics field, working his way up from junior technician
at Texas Instruments to engineer for Teradyne and senior staff engineer for
STMicroelectronics. While associated with Teradyne, Spencer recalls developing
offline laser repair, which he described as a major advancement in industry. He was
called in after Japan struggled trying to resolve electronic and laser production
issues for memory chips for a miniature semiconductor. Spencer said he rewrote
their laser programs within six weeks. Spencer received his first patent in August
1983 for an electrical wiring tester to determine the quality of the wiring
installed in a home or building and identifying electrical problems. El-Kishky, of
UT Tyler, said electrical wire tester technology normally tests for continuity of
the circuit and for health of the insulation. It is important to have a tester to
make sure wiring is in good condition, especially when multiple wires are harnessed
together, for example in a small space, he said. Calcote, of TJC, said problems
that a wire tester can locate could lead to noise problems, to the wire breaking
down quicker and in worst-case scenarios could create fires. Some items from China
are made with very cheap components, but a wiring tester can find whether the
wiring will live up to expectations long term, he said. In 1990, Spencer received
numerous patents for an arc fault circuit interrupter, a product now available at
Home Depot and Lowe's. An unwanted arc has been responsible for burning down
buildings and causing fires in houses, Calcote said. The National Electrical Code
started to require new homes to have an arc fault circuit interrupter in outlets in
bedrooms, El-Kishky said, and the requirement was expanded to most outlets in
residences. When problems with the B-1 bomber caused it to be grounded during the
Gulf War, Spencer said, he and his engineers were able to identify the problem and
the plane was restored to flight status. General Motors tried for a year and a half
to resolve arcing problems with its Chevy Volt, a hybrid car, and then called in
Spencer's team. "We resolved the problem in one month," he said. The electrical
smart meter on houses contains a lot of components derived from work he has done,
Spencer said. "There are a lot of products out there that have my footprint on
them. I don't get credit for them. I'm just happy they have the technology to do
what they do (with them)," he said. About 1991, Spencer became an entrepreneur. He
borrowed $40,000 and started his own electronic company, ZLAN Ltd. Within a year,
sales totaled $186,000, and within five years had grown to $6 million a year. Sales
ultimately reached $10 million a year. Spencer sold ZLAN to his adult children —
three boys and two girls — in 1999 and stopped going to work in an office. He
bought land, learned how to ranch and began focusing on his inventions. Spencer
settled in Cross Roads about 10 years ago, partly because it is close to the Athens
airport, where he stored an airplane that he had at the time. Spencer, 76, said he
works 18-hour days seven days a week at his home on inventions and other projects.
He wakes up about 5:30 in the morning, but does not get out of bed until maybe 7
o'clock because he likes to do complex math calculations for his projects in his
head. During the day, Spencer does research, considers things in three or four
different ways, works on his computer and makes models and prototypes. Spencer said
he visualizes inventions and builds them in his head thousands of times and is
grateful when he finds a showstopper or fixes something that others could not fix.
"I enjoy what I do," Spencer said. He said he feels "asked" and "assigned" by a
spiritual source
outside of this world to invent and to solve problems, but added that he is not a
religious person. Spencer guards against getting disappointed if something does not
work out. "You just keep going and don't give up," he said. Russell Richardson, an
Athens real estate agent, got to know Spencer about three years ago when he was
trying to sell some land. "I found him interesting; he's a fascinating man. His
accomplishments impressed me," Richardson said. "He's constantly rolling numbers
through his head. One of his strengths is he does calculations in his head without
getting a pen and pad out or a calculator. He has done some remarkable stuff in his
career." Richardson described Spencer as reserved, humble and interested in solving
problems to make society a better place. He said Spencer is not motivated by how
much money he will make from his inventions. ___ Information from: Tyler Morning
Telegraph, http://www.tylerpaper.com This is an AP Member Exchange shared by the
Tyler Morning Telegraph