2009 International Conference on Information Technology and Computer Science
Application of Elman Neural Network and MATLAB to Load Forecasting
REN Lina1 LIU Yanxin2 RUI Zhiyuan1 LI Haiyan1 FENG Ruicheng1
(1. Key Laboratory of Digital Manufacturing Technology and Application, The Ministry of Educationˈ
Lanzhou Univ. of Tech. Lanzhou 730050,China; 2.GanSu Tobacco Industrial Company, Lanzhou730050, China)
E-mail:sunnyren214@sina.com
Abstract—In order to improve the load-forecast precision and
availability of power system, a method based on Elman neural
network and MATLAB is presented to create a load forecast
model,which according to the Elman neural network model having
the characteristics of approach to arbitrary nonlinear functions
and having the ability of reflecting the dynamic behavior of the
system and for the practicability and high efficiency of using
neural network tool-box in MATLAB to program.Then using actual
load data to train the model,the emulation results show that the
model is of quickly convergence speed and high forecasting
precision,which can meet the needs of running and scheduling in
power system,and using neural network tool-box in MATLAB to
program can make the worker won free of elaborate program and
make the working efficiency improved effectively.The example is of
proof that the method is feasible and effective.
Keywords- Elman neural network; MATLAB;forecast model;
electric load;
I. INTRODUCTION
For long years,load forecast of power system is largely
and deeply studied by people,and many significant methods
are proposed such as regression analysis method[1][2],time
series method[3][4] and grey system method[5] etc. In
general,conventional mathematical model use an explicit
mathematical representation to describe,which decides the
limitation of traditional forecast model.In fact,the load of
power system is a dynamic system influenced by many
factors and having a nonlinear variation,and the variety
regulation of load is difficult to use an explicit mathematical
formula to describe.Then a method based on artifitical neural
network[6-8] becomes a great breakthrough in forecast
fields,which regards independent variable and dependent
variable of traditional explicit function as input-output of the
network,and inverts the relationship of conventional function
into a nonlinear mapping with high dimension not an explicit
mathematical representation. Therefore,the method based on
artifitical neural network is largely used in analyzing and
forecast the complex and nonlinear system such as load in
power system,and in which the Elman neural network with
the characteristics of reflecting the dynamic behavior directly
and lively is more and more valued by people.Elman neural
network is a typical network with dynamic neuron,which is
on the basis of the structure of BP neural network,a
particular association layer is introduced,and by memorying
the inner state to make it having a function of mapping the
dynamic behavior and then which makes the system having
the ability of adapting time inflecting
978-0-7695-3688-0/09 $25.00 © 2009 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/ITCS.2009.20
speciafication.Compared with BP neural network,Elman
neural network is much more appropriate to model for
complex and nonlinear system.
For load forecast model of power system with dynamic
behavior is generally a nonlinear function,so using Elman
neural network to model and analyze is feasible.
However,most load forecast model based on artifitical
neural network are using C language or FORTRAN language
to program,which not only makes structure of the model
complex,but also have a long training time. Then using the
NNTool-Box in MATLAB to program can disembarrass the
users out of elaborate programing[9] and collect their thought
to find a method for solving the problem,then working
efficiency and the quality for solving the problem can be
greatly improved.In the paper,we manage to create a load
forecast model with the feature of facilitation and higher
forecast precision in the situation of using MATLAB
language to program.
II. ELMAN NEURAL NETWORK MODEL AND USAGE OF IT
IN MATLAB
Elman neural network can be considered as a forward
neural network with a local memory element and a local
feedback conjection,which is generally divided into four
layers,including input layer,hidden layer,association layer
and output layer,the basic structure of the network is seen in
Figure.1.In which the conjunction among input layer,hidden
layer and output layer is similar to the forward neural
network,the neurons of input layer play a role of
transmission signal,and output layer neurons play a role of
linear weighted.The transfer function of hidden layer is still a
nonlinear function,which is generally using a Sigmoid
function;association layer ia also called state layer,which is a
unit delay operator for saving the output state at previous
moment of the hidden layer to characterize the inner feature
of the object.Then the inner feature together with external
input signal are used as the input of hidden layer nodes at the
current moment,which is correspond to a state feedback.
The mathematical model of Elman neural network is
analyzed as follows:
55
 y(k) Where K is the learning speed, mc is momentum factor
Output layer and its default is 0.9.So not only the gradient direction at
x(k) current moment is considered when updating,but also the
w3
b2 gradient direction at previous moment is considered,which
Hidden layer x1 ĂĂ xn can reduce the sensibility while using the performance of net
xc1ĂĂxcn Associate layer
w1
to modify the parameter and reject local minimum
2
w effectively.
b1
Input layer xc(k) III. THE PROGRAMMING IN THE SITUATION OF USING
ĂĂ u(k-1) MATLAB LANGUAGE TO PROGRAM
Figure.1 The Structure of Elman Neural Network
A. NNTool-Box in MATLAB
Seen in Figure.1,nonlinear state-place expression of the MATLAB NNTool-Box base on the artifitical neural
Elman neural network are as follows: network theory,which uses MATLAB language to write
y (k ) g ( w 3 x(k )  b2 ) ˄1˅ most subprograms of the theory refered to such as formula
operation,matrix manipulation and equation resolution and
x(k ) f (w1 xc (k )  w 2 (u (k  1))  b1 ) ˄2˅ so on,so that to design and train the neural network.The user
xc ( k ) x(k  1) is only need to call a relevant subprogram according to his
˄3˅
demand,which can help the user do a series of works
Where k represents the moment, y,x,u, xc are separately including designing of the structure,intialization the
representing a dimension vector of output node, m dimension weight,training the net and output the results,and make user
vector of hidden layer nodes, n dimension input vector and m win free of writing complex and big algorithm routine.
3 2 1
dimension feedback state vector. Then w , w , w are
separately representing connection weight matrix from B. Data processing
hidden layer to output layer,from input layer to hidden layer In the medium-term load forecast model,the history load
and from association layer to hidden layer. f (˜) is a transfer data of each month from the year of 2000 to 2006 of some
power system is used as the foundation on study.
function of the neuron of hidden layer,which using
For the data acquisition system having the behavior of not
log sig function,and g (˜) is a transfer function of output exactly reliability and there needing a relative higher load
layer,which using purelin function.Then b1 and b2 are forecast precision in project,so before using history data to
separately as the threshold of input layer and output layer. forecast,sifting out the abnormal data and effectively
In the learning algorithm of the Elman neural network, an processing them have become the first step to
optimization gradient-falling algorithm that is a back- forecast.Therefore,firstly according to the method proposed
propagation algorithm with adaptive learning speed and in the documation[10] to preprocess the load data,and in order
momentum gradient-falling is used,the algorithm is not only to make bigger input data located in the place of with great
can improve the training speed,but also can effectively gradient of transfer function,we should normalize and
inhibit the network to trap into a local minimum.The process the input sample.In the paper, the formula (6) is used
learning purpose is to use the difference between actual to converse input layer data into a value from the area of
ouput and the ouput sample to modify the weight and [0.2,0.9],and then formula (7)is used to converse output layer
threshold,and to make the error sum of squares of output value into load data.
layer minimize.Suppose the actual ouput vector of k step x  xmin
y 0.2  0.8 u
is yd ( k ) ,then in the time slice of (0ˈT),the error function xmax  xmin ˄6˅
is defined as follows: ( y  0.2)( xmax  xmin )
x  xmin
0.8 ˄7˅
1 T
¦ > y d ( k )  y ( k )@
2
E
2k1 Where xmin and xmax represent the minimun and maximum
˄4˅
3 2 of the sample set separately.In general,we often use 0.9
Then taken w , w for example,we use the function E to multiple to minimum and 1.1multiple to maximum on
3 2
have a partial derivative for w , w and can get a formula for project,it is of proof by pilot calculation that which can make
modifying the weight as follows: the sample easily trained and has a high rapidity of
'w13j (k  1) (1  mc)K ( y d (k )  y (k )) convergence.
˜ g c(˜) x j (k )  mc'w13j (k ) C. Creation input matrix and output matrix
j 1,2,, m To rationally set the structure of Elman neural network is
the foundation on improving the forecast performance.In
'w 2jq (k  1) (1  mc)K ( y d (k )  y (k ))
fact,how to set the structure of neural network especially the
˜ f jc(˜)u q (k  1)  mc'w 2jq (k ) neuron number of hidden layer is an empirical
j 1,2,, m, q 1,2,, n problem,which needs a large number of experiment.In the
˄5˅ paper,the processed data used to forecast are divided into two

56
parts,including training sample(which use the data from the DN '
year of 2000 to April 2006) and test sample(which use the 4;5 DN
data from May to August in the year of 2006).And there are 3
/:
,:
seven input value and one output value in the

 
/: DN \
5  6  Q
model.Considering in power system,the load at i moment
  
 
6 5

Q 6 6



influenced not only on external environment and inner


D 6 

6 


6  E

factors at i moment,but also on other factors at i-1,i-2,Ă,i-n


E 
6
moment for the course of formation with time lag of   

 6  
6 6 

5  

load,therefore,the load has dynamic behavior. But for the

data from external factors with indeterminacy in
themselves,so adding them into the model will influence
forecast effect of the model.Therefore,in the disscussed
model,how to choose input variable only decide by the basic
history data from some power system.the output variable is
P(i,j);the input variable u1, u2 are separately asP(i, j-1),P(i,j-
2);u3,u4,u5 are separately asP(i-1,j),P(i-1,j-1),P(i-1,j-2) and
u6,u7 are separately as P(i-2,j),P(i-2,j-1),where i represents
month and j represents year.
For MATLAB is appropriate to input-output vector
operation in particular,so MATLAB language is used to
program.In the program,the input matrix is a row vector with
P(1h7) and output matrix is a row vector with T(1h1).
D. The programming
1) The main program flow
Figure.2 is the main program flow diagram, which used
to forecast the medium-term load .
Start
Input the given training data
Correcting and normalization
the abnormal data
According to the characteristic of network
load ,generating the input matrix
Using "newelm" to establish a network
and initialization the neural network
Using the optimizational algorithm with
gradient-falling to tain the network,then
to get the weight value of each model
Using Elman neural network model to
realize the medium-term load forecasting
Output the forecast results
The end
Figure.2 the program flow chart of medium-term load forecast using a
modified back-propagation algorithm
2) Creation neural network
Input layer logarithmic function layer Output layer
Figure.3 The emulation structure of Elman neural network
The emulation structure of Elman neural network is seen
in Fig.3,which includes input layer,hidden layer,association
layer and output layer. R1 is the number of input layer; S1
and S2 are separately as the number of association layer and
output layer; P is the input vector; b1 is a neuronic threshold
vector in some layer such i; and IW1,1 represents the
connection weight between input neuron and input
vector,then LWi,1 represents the connection weight between
neuron of some layer such i and input vector; ni is an
intermediate operating results among neuron in some layer
such i, ai(k) is some output of some layer such i.Input layer
nodes are only transmission of input signal to the hidden
layer,and the function log sig is used as transfer function of
hidden layer,that is as follows:
1
log sig ( x)
1  exp( x) (8)
Association layer is used to memorize the output of
previous moment,and the linear function purelin is used as
transfer function of output layer,the reason is that all
elements of target vector are located in the area from 0.2 to
0.9 and which can meet the output needs of log sig function
just right.
For how to give the hidden layer nodes of neural
network.In the paper,according to Kolmogorov
principle[11],we get a theoretical value of hidden layer nodes
at first.The principle that is for a any continuous function
) ,where there is a neural network with three layers can
realize it perfectly,if input layer of the network has m
units,then 2m  1 units can be given to the hidden layer.then
the method proposed in documentaition[12] (the method
which is to use the formula N d 4 m(k  3)  1 ,where N
represents the number of hidden layer nodes;m is the number
of input layer nodes and k represents the number of output
layer nodes)is used and the hidden layer nodes are tried to
set,and we can get the optimum number of hidden layer
nodes for Elman neural network model by emulating and
matching the data in the area of (l  G , l  G )G  N ,where l
are the theoretical nodes of the hidden layer.By several
training,we come to a conclusion that the neuron number of
each layer are seperately as 7-17-1.
Using Elman neural network to model:

57
 % the variable threshold is used to set the maximum and From above results,we can obtain that error of network
minimum of input vector, which sets the maximum as 0.9 answers the requirements by training the network at 127
and the minimum as 0.2. times.Results are shown in Figure.4.
threshold >0.2 0.9;0.2 0.9;0.2 0.9;0.2 0.9;0.2 0.9;0.2 0.9;0.2 0.9@ 0
10
Performance is 6.13087e-005, Goal is 0.0001

% using ' newelm ' function to create a Elman neural network

net newelm(threshold , >17,1@ , ^'log sig '' purelin '` ,' traingdx ') -1
10

When using ' newelm ' function to create neural network,it is

Training-Blue Goal-Black
-2

random to initialize the weight and threshold value.

10

' traingdx ' represents to assume the training function as -3

10

traingdx,which using a back-propagation algorithm with

adaptive learning speed and momentum gradient-falling to -4
10

learn.and to set the initial weight matrix on training are as

follows by choosing initialization function. -5
10
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
net.layers{i}.initFcn='initwb' ˗ 127 Epochs

net.inputWeights{i,j}.initFcn='rands' ˗
Figure.4 the training results of Elman neural network model
net.bias{i,j}.initFcn='rands' ˗
Additionally,we need to test the trained network to judge
net=init(net) ˗ whether to put it into application.In the paper, emulator
3) Train the neural network function sim is used to calculate the output of the network.
% train the network
Out sim(net , P _ test )
> net , tr @ train(net , P, T )
% to setup training parameter for network % P _ test is the test data of network
The running results of the program are as follows:
net .trainParam.epochs 300 % training times
Out =41.336
net.trainParam.goal 0.0001 % the aim to training The relative error is 1.14%(actual load data is 40.87
net.trainParamlr
. _ inc 1.05 % growth scale factor of learning speed HMKWH),so we obtain that the relative error between actual
load and forecast load is little,which can meet the needs of
net.trainParam.lr _ dec 0.7 % decrea sin g scale factor of learning speed scheduling in power system.
Finally, we need to program and train the neural
net.trainParamshow
. 25 %training steps betweentwo display segments network,then to simulate and forecast results can be
net.trainParam.max_ fail 5 % max imum failure times obtained.forecast results of May to August in the year of
% the condition for stopping to train includes: 2006 are shown in Table 1.
Reaching maximum training times,making error function TABLE I. THE FORECAST RESULTS
of the network meet the required value,and making training
time get to maximum,let gradient of performance function f orecast
average
load based
decrease until it reaches the minimum or proving the failure month
actual data of
on Elman
relative absolute
times in exceed of maximum times. load in 2006 error(%) relative
neural
error(%)
% the training results network
For example, train results of load forecasting model of 5 40.87 41.336 1.14
some power system in May are as follows:
6 41.25 40.896 0.8
TRAINGDX, Epoch 0/300, MSE 0.194223/0.0001, 1.375
Gradient 0.16035/1e-006 7 40.18 39.311 2.16
TRAINGDX, Epoch 25/300, MSE 0.184502/0.0001,
8 40.07 39.509 1.4
Gradient 0.169012/1e-006
TRAINGDX, Epoch 50/300, MSE 0.149319/0.0001,
Gradient 0.18223/1e-006 IV. THE RESULTS
TRAINGDX, Epoch 75/300, MSE 0.0760217/0.0001, In association with NNTool-Box of MATLAB
Gradient 0.0813551/1e-006 software,using Elman neural network to have a electric load
TRAINGDX, Epoch 100/300, MSE 0.0223252/0.0001, forecast model,and then we jump to conclusions that are as
Gradient 0.0413701/1e-006 follows by testing for some power system data.
TRAINGDX, Epoch 125/300, MSE 0.000160017/0.0001, 1ǃ It is proved that the way to use Elman neural network
Gradient 0.0027196/1e-006 with dynamic characteristics to identify and forecast
TRAINGDX, Epoch 127/300, MSE 6.13087e-005/0.0001, electric load is feasible.
Gradient 0.00227949/1e-006 2ǃ It is of illustration that the forecast method proposed in
TRAINGDX, Performance goal met. this paper has the characteristics of higher speed and

58
 better effectiveness,and Elman neural network has
greater fitting ability and higher forecast precision.
3ǃUsing MATLAB language to program makes input and
output vector quantify,which makes brief of model
greatly. And based on NNTool-Box in MATLAB to
program has much higher efficiency than using other
languages to program,which only need several seconds
to train the neural network.
4ǃForecast results show that Elman neural network model
has the behaviour of brevity and practicality,and the
forecast precision of the model can reach percent
1.375(it is the value of average absolute relative
error ),which can meet the needs of running and
scheduling in power system.
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[3] Moghram I, Rahman S. Analysis and evaluation of five short-term
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