17MSPA02 Group 3 Corporate Finance Advisors

Valuation Report: Ryanair Holdings plc

John Gil
Master in International Finance Carol Reis
Beneficiary: Dr. Joan Tarradellas Aly Genena
Rohan Buddineni
Josef Osterhammer
Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

Table of Contents

1 DISCLAIMER 3

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

3 INTRODUCTION 5

4 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 5

5 DETAILED COMPANY OVERVIEW 6

5.1 BUSINESS DESCRIPTION 6
5.2 SHAREHOLDERS 7
5.3 SWOT-ANALYSIS 8
5.4 KEY STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES AND CHALLENGES 9

6 SECTOR AND INDUSTRY ECONOMICS 10

6.1 LOW COST CARRIER INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 10
6.2 PEER GROUP 13
6.3 INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 14
6.4 MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS 14

7 COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 15

7.1 TOP LINE AND OPERATING METRICS 15
7.2 BOTTOM LINE AND SHAREHOLDER RETURNS 16
7.3 LIQUIDITY 17
7.4 SOLVENCY 18

8 COMPANY VALUATION 20
8.1 FUNDAMENTAL VALUATION 20
8.1.1 FORECASTED FREE CASH FLOWS TO THE FIRM 20
8.1.2 TERMINAL VALUE 20
8.1.3 WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) 20
8.1.4 FINAL VIEW ON ENTERPRISE AND EQUITY VALUE 20
8.2 MULTIPLE VALUATIONS 20
8.2.1 TRADING MULTIPLES 20
8.2.2 TRANSACTION MULTIPLES 20

9 CONCLUSION 20

10 APPENDICES 20

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

1 Disclaimer
The information and material presented in the attached report (the "Report") are
provided to you for informational purposes only and are not to be used or consid-
ered as an offer or a solicitation to sell or an offer or solicitation to buy or subscribe
for securities or other financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with
respect to such securities or other financial instruments. Neither 17MSTPA02
Group 3 Corporate Finance Advisors ("Group 3") nor any of its affiliates makes
any representation or warranty or guarantee as to the completeness, accuracy,
timeliness or suitability of any information contained within any part of the Report
nor that it is free from error.
Any investments presented in this report may be unsuitable for the investor de-
pending on his or her specific investment objectives and financial position. Any
reports provided herein are provided for general information purposes only and
cannot substitute the obtaining of independent financial advice. Private investors
should obtain the advice of their banker/broker about any investments concerned
prior to making them. Nothing in this publication is intended to create contractual
obligations.

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

2 Executive Summary
Ryanair Holdings plc (hereafter “Ryanair”) operates an ultra low fare scheduled
passenger airline serving short haul, point-to-point routes between the UK, Ireland,
and Continental Europe, as well as Morocco. It is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
In an industry that is highly competitive on price, Ryanair has consistently
achieved sound revenue growth and continuously superior profitability and liquidity
situation compared to a group of identified peers. With reported revenues of EUR
6,647.8mn for the fiscal year ended March 2017 the company continues to lever-
age on its industry leading low cost base, resulting in a leading position (market
share: 14%) in the European market for low cost air travel.
Ryanair has always been heavily focused on minimizing costs in order to maintain
a significant fare discount relative to its competitors. In a market, which appears to
continue to commoditize, we firmly believe that the lowest cost producer will win in
the long run. We note that the selection of airport bases and destination airports
has, to a considerable extent, been driven by cost considerations. While factors
such as demographics, economic growth, discretionary income, tourism and po-
tential for business traffic are taken into account, the cost base and aircraft turna-
round time remain the most important selection criteria. Quick turnaround times,
typically around 25 minutes, are crucial in order to maintain high productivity and
utilization rates.

example

The conducted valuation of Ryanair proposes a current intrinsic value of EUR

XXXmn (05.03.2018). With respect to its current market valuation, this reports
therefore suggests that Ryanair is currently overvalued/undervalued.

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

3 Introduction
The aim of this report is to determine a fair value of Ryanair Holdings plc in ac-
cordance to our mandate. The report will reveal whether the company’s stock is
currently over- or undervalued. Furthermore it will provide extensive overview
Ryanair’s operations and management as well as a detailed outline of its respec-
tive industry and its drivers. Finally, comprehensive and holistic financial analysis
of the firm’s financial statements and historic financial performance will be em-
ployed in an effort to provide objective forecasts of future cash flows of Ryanair.

The main valuation method chosen is based on a discounted cash flow model
(DCF). Market valuation, i.e. Multiples, will only assist as a justifying element of the
valuation, to confirm and validate findings of the DCF. Given the fact that global air
travel projected to grow in the foreseeable future, we deem appropriate to consider
a two stage terminal value (TV), with an (i) initial growth rate in line with growth of
air travel concluded by (ii) a terminal assuming return on invested capital (ROIC)
to equal the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) over time.

This valuation report is brought to the reader in a way that does not require in-
depth knowledge of financial theory and is written in a self explanatory way. When
appropriate, findings will be illustrated in visual form and formulas will be exhibited.
For reasons of completeness, data underlying the financial analysis as well as the
financial models employed will be exhibited in the appendices to this report.

4 Sources of Information
The sources of information underlying this valuation report comprise:
(i) Public company information as found in the Ryanair’s annual and quarterly
reports as well as respective earnings call presentations and the company’s
website
(ii) Information retrieved from market intelligence platforms such as S&P Capi-
tal IQ, Thomson Reuters Eikon, Market Line and The World Bank
(iii) Supplemental data used in common valuation practice is provided by 2016
Valuation Handbook – Guide to Cost of Capital (Duff & Phelps), NYU Stern
Aswath Damodaran Online Database and Mergermarket.

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

5 Detailed Company Overview

5.1 Business Description
Business Model - Ryanair operates an ultra-low-cost model:

 Single aircraft type  Young fleet

 Single cabin class  High seating density

 High aircraft utilization  High load factors

 Point to point route network  No flight connectivity

Ryanair Holdings plc (Ryanair or 'the company') is a holding company for Ryanair
Limited, which is a lowfare scheduled passenger airline company. The company
booked approximately 120 million passengers in FY2017. The company offered
over 2,000 scheduled short-haul flights per day serving approximately 200 airports
largely throughout Europe. Ryanair primarily operates in the UK, Ireland, and other
European countries and offers flights to North African destinations.

The company is managed as a single business unit that provides low fares airline-
related services, including scheduled services, and ancillary services including
hotel, travel insurance and internet and other related services to third parties.

Ryanair annual passengers 120

106
91
76 79 82
74
67
59
51
43
35
23 28
11 16
7 8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

As on January 31, 2018, Ryanair's principal fleet comprised 400 Boeing 737-800
aircraft. In FY2017, the company reported an average booked passenger load fac-
tor of approximately 94%, which increased by 6% over the past four years. Rya-
nair's recorded revenue passenger miles (RPM) are of 92,383 million in FY2017,
i.e. up 14% compared to FY2016, and available seat miles (ASM) are up 12%
from 87,451 million during FY2016 to 97,909 in FY2017.

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

The company also provides various ancillary services and engages in other activi-
ties connected with its core air passenger service. These include non-flight sched-
uled services, in-flight sale of beverages, food, and merchandise, and internet-
related services. As part of its non-flight scheduled and internet-related services,
the company distributes accommodation services and travel insurance through
both its website and its telephone reservation offices. Ancillary revenues will be
looked at more closely in the financial analysis.

Ryanair also sells bus and some rail tickets Geographical Segments
onboard its aircraft and through its website. The
28,2%
company markets car parking, attractions and ac- UK
tivities on its website. Geographically, the compa- 61,5%
ny classifies its operations into three segments, Other
namely The UK, Ireland, and Other European Europe
10,3%
countries. In FY2017, the UK accounted for 28.2% Ireland
of the company's total revenues, followed by Ire-
land with 10.3%; and Other Europe with 61.5%.

A major part of air travelling occures during holiday seasons, which is why the
industry experiences seasonality. Ryanair manages this effect by lowering the
utilization of its fleet during winter months. During this time, approximately 20% of
its fleet will stay grounded.

5.2 Shareholders
Shares of Ryanair Holdings plc are traded on the stock exchanges of London
(LSE), the stock exchange of Dublin in Ireland (ISE) and the NASDAQ stock ex-
change in New York. Approximately 45% of all shares outstanding are owned by
institutional investors, of which the top 10 assume ownership of close to 25%.

HSBC Global
Fidelity International
5.54% O'Leary (Michael Kevin)
c. 25,2% Jupiter Asset Management
1.61%
owned by Top Baillie Gifford & Co.
2.20% 10 Alken Asset Management
shareholders 5.34% Allianz Global Investors
2.46% Janus Henderson Investors
Norges Bank
3.91%
Columbia Threadneedle Investments

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

5.3 SWOT-Analysis
Strengths

 Biggest Low-Cost Airline in Europe - Ryanair is the biggest budget oper-

ator in Europe in terms of passengers carried, overtaking established
scheduled airlines through aggressive route network expansion.

 Cost Control - Rigorous cost control has been at the heart of Ryanair’s
business model, which helps maintain profitability in times of numerous dis-
ruptors and external impacts.
Weaknesses

 Employment Issues - The recent clash with its pilots over employment
terms could lead to major operational issues due to a shortage of staff, but
also impact its cost base.

 Low Cost Long Haul - The emergence of low-cost long haul players such
as Norwegian Air Shuttle is expected to steal market share from Ryanair,
especially as it is growing its exposure in Asia Pacific and North America.
Opportunities

 Partnerships with other players - Establishing partnerships with sched-

uled players to serve as a provider of feeder traffic for long haul flights could
help to access a larger passenger market and boost revenues.

 Middle East - Expanding away from Europe could help the airline tap into
new markets, in turn bringing more revenues. Already in Israel, the airline
could also consider destinations such as Egypt or Lebanon.
Threats

 Cyber Security Risks - Cyber security could be very damaging for the
company, which plans to increase the digitalization of its internal structures
and drive full customer personalization through its website.

 Brexit - Ryanair is considering shifting capacity following the Brexit vote, as

management foresees uncertainty that could challenge existing strategies.

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

5.4 Key strategic objectives and challenges

 The customer experience is on Ryanair’s Continued Transformation
agenda as part of its “Always Getting Bet-
 Cross-selling tickets
ter” program. The carrier has been driving
with AirEuropa
the personalization of customer services
through the establishment of membership  Digitalization on internal
profiling on its website. structures

 Driving customer per-

Winners
 The airline introduced several new initia-
tives in 2017 in line with its strategy. Spe- sonalization
cifically, the carrier began the sale of tick-
 Improved customer pro-
ets of another operator, the Spanish air-
filing
line Air Europa. It also introduced Apple
Pay in six of its markets, and improved its  Expansion in Eastern
Ryanair Rooms website, according to Europe
corporate sources.

 For the first time in its experience, in 2017 External Factors

Ryanair faced crew shortages and em-
ployment discontent over pay among its
pilots. This conflict led to the cancellation  Brexit
of flights and the suspension of routes.
 Currency devaluation
Although the crisis was not detrimental for
Losers

its financial performance, it led to a huge  Fuel fluctuations

brand catastrophe, and allowed rivals to
attract some of its pilots.  Abadon bid for Alitalia

 The UK is one of the major markets for

the Irish player, and the political uncer-
tainties related to Brexit could lead to
flight disruptions if Brexit transition air ar-
rangements are not put in place by the lo-
cal government.

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

6 Sector and Industry Economics

Generally, the airline industry is a highly regulated business, which has recently
been subject to increased consolidation. Besides high barriers to entry, given the
requirement for extensive initial capital outlays, the industry is further more subject
to high deviations of margins. This is in part due to the cyclicality of the industry,
which means that its business depends on a country’s economic growth. During
periods of economic prosperity, disposable income is on the rise. A booming
economy allows people to spend money on discretionary items such as air travel.
So, airline revenues are higher during growth and lower in economic contraction.

14%
Ryanair Sales Performance vs. Global Airline Industry 2013-2017
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Global Airline Industry Ryanair Holdings Plc

One of the major operating inputs of an aircraft is jet fuel (kerosene). For that rea-
son, profitability of airline carriers will be adversely affected by a rise in oil prices.
Thus we have identified a significant negative correlation between price develop-
ment of crude oil and prices of equities of airline service providers.

6.1 Low Cost Carrier Industry Overview

Ryanair Europe’s largest low cost airline is Ryanair, accounting for 14.2% of all
intra-European seat capacity and 16.6% of the ASKs, followed by EasyJet with
nearly 10% of the capacity. Although the six other low cost airlines are all consid-
erably smaller with less than 5% of the market, together they account for 15.6% of
the intra-European seats and 17.8% of the ASKs.

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

Common Characteristics of Low Cost Carriers are:

 A homogenous fleet - savings in maintenance, personnel, inventories

 Point-to-point flights - no connections or interlining agreements. While some
passengers may choose to ‘self-connect’, the consequence of failing to
make a connection rests with the passenger (not the airline)
 A young fleet - savings on maintenance, fuel and increased reliability
 High seat density - lower unit costs (spread over a larger number of seats)
 Simple and efficient production processes as well as less restricted working
practices (compared with the network carriers)
 Less congested airports (not always) - reduced aircraft turnaround times
and increased asset and staff utilisation, lower airport fees, fewer delays
 No free inflight meals, drinks, lounges or seat allocation.
 Yield management typically follows an increasing price curve, with the high-
est prices paid immediately prior to departure and high flight frequency.
 Charge for inflight services, seat choice, speedy boarding, checked bags,
fast-lane security clearance and (third party) lounge access.

Market Shares of European Low Cost Carriers

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Valuation Report: Ryanair March, 2018

Network carriers generally operate hub and spoke networks, which rely heavily on
connecting (transfer) traffic. The short haul routes are used to feed the lucrative
long-haul network and vice versa, but also target the point-to-point market as the
short haul routes cannot survive on connecting traffic alone. The fact that network
airlines are usually capacity constrained at their hubs (British Airways at London
Heathrow, Air France/KLM at Paris CDG and Amsterdam Schiphol, Lufthansa at
Frankfurt), limits the growth of their short-haul networks. The fact that feeder flights
need to be coordinated with long-haul departure and arrival times creates further
restrictions at busy airports.
There are no such constraints on the LCCs, which solely operate point-to-point
networks and tend not to have code-sharing or interlining agreements with other
airlines. Routes are launched if the point-to-point market is deemed to be large
and prosperous enough to fill the aircraft at acceptable yields.
While network carriers could launch point-to-point flights from non-hub airports,
their unit cost puts them at a disadvantage relative to low cost carriers. Some of
the network carriers have shifted capacity on non-feeder routes to their low cost
airlines subsidiaries. Examples include IAG-owned low cost subsidiary Vueling
taking over British Airways and Iberia routes, Eurowings/Germanwings taking over
Lufthansa routes and Transavia taking over Air France/KLM routes. We expect
this trend to continue, although stiff union opposition may impact the speed and
scale of this capacity shift.
Strategic selection of airports supports Ryanair’s cost advantage

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6.2 Peer Group

easyJet plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an airline carrier primarily
in Europe. As of September 30, 2017, it operated 862 routes and a fleet of 279
aircraft. The company also engages in the trading and leasing of aircrafts; and the
provision of graphic design services. easyJet plc was founded in 1995 and is
based in Luton, the United Kingdom.
Jet2.com Limited operates as a commercial leisure airline company in the United
Kingdom. It owns and operates a fleet of aircraft. Jet2.com Limited was formerly
known as Channel Express (Air Services) Limited and changed its name to
Jet2.com Limited in February 2003. The company was founded in 1978 and is
based in Leeds, United Kingdom. Jet2.com Limited operates as a subsidiary of
Dart Group plc.
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA, together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled
and charter airline services under the Norwegian name in Norway and internation-
ally. It offers passenger and cargo services. As of December 31, 2016, the com-
pany operated 472 routes to 130 destinations that stretch across Europe into
North Africa, the Middle East, North America, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia;
and a fleet of 255 owned and leased aircrafts. It also provides Internet-based ser-
vices, including car rental, hotel booking, payment services, financial services, and
services related to credit cards. Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA was founded in 1993
and is headquartered in Fornebu, Norway.
TransAsia Airways Corporation operates as an airline company in Taiwan and
internationally. The company provides domestic, international, bi-coastal, and
chartered airline services. It also offers ground handling and ticketing services for
airlines; and medical flights to SOS emergency and rescue organization. In addi-
tion, the company provides private jet services, including ground handling agency,
aircraft license application, communication and route information, flight planning,
ground coordination, customs clearance application, passenger baggage handling,
refueling, catering, and shuttle and ground services. TransAsia Airways Corpora-
tion was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Taipei City, Taiwan.
Vueling Airlines, S.A. operates and manages scheduled passenger air transport
under the Vueling name in Spain and the European Union. It operates a network
of flights with destinations covering Spain, Europe, North Africa, and the Middle
East. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Barcelona,
Spain. Vueling Airlines, S.A. is a subsidiary of International Consolidated Airlines
Group, S.A.

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Wizz Air Holdings Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger air
transportation services on scheduled short-haul and medium-haul point-to-point
routes across Europe and the Middle East. It operates a fleet of 87 Airbus A320
and Airbus A321 aircraft that offer services for approximately 550 routes from 28
bases connecting 144 destinations across 43 countries. Wizz Air Holdings Plc was
founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.

6.3 Industry Outlook

Demand for flights has historically been correlated with economic growth. Weak or
negative economic growth, as well as poor consumer confidence, could have a
negative impact on Ryanair’s financial performance. Given the recently positively
anticipated outlook for economic growth, we are confident that the company will be
able to capture that growth and increase sales accordingly.

BREXIT: Ryanair may face a number of regulatory challenges, and could require
special efforts to continue to comply with EU regulation that requires air carriers
registered in EU member states to be majority-owned and effectively controlled by
EU nationals. If UK shareholders are no longer designated as EU nationals, Rya-
nair may need to take action and manage its shareholder base to ensure ongoing
compliance.

6.4 Macroeconomic Impacts

As mentioned before, the airline industry correlates with the global economy and
can thus be classified as a cyclical industry. Historic research provides evidence
that the following macroeconomic indicators – amongst others – further impact the
airline industry:

 Oil prices have an inverse correlation with the profitability of airline opera-
tors, since kerosene accounts for a major part of the operating cost of air-
craft. Current upward momentum in oil price thus squeezes profits of LLCs.

 Population growth directly impacts the demand for transportation. Hence,

high population growth will drive the demand for air travel and result in
growth potential for the industry.

 Political issues such as the Brexit impose an uncertain environment.

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7 Comprehensive Financial Analysis

7.1 Top line and Operating Metrics
The company achieved a compounded annual sales growth of more than 6% over
the past four fiscal periods. Simultaneously, operating profits rose from 18% to
24%, making it the most profitable low cost carrier in its respective industry.

Sales, EBIT and EBIT margin

23% 24%
22%
18%

1,460 1,534 1,694

1,043
5,654 6,536 6,648 7,002

2015 2016 2017 LTM

Sales EBIT EBIT Margin

Through its industry-leading cost base, the company is able to achieve superior
margins with respect to the industry. Over its closest competitor easyjet plc, Rya-
nair has a 44% cost advantage.
Unit seat cost breakdown 2017

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However, Ryanair achieves lower revenue per seat, which sets off part of the cost
advantage. This is mainly due to the very aggressive ultra low-fare pricing model,
which positions Ryanair as the cheapest way to travel on many of its routes.

Fleet underutilization during winter months

383

Grounded: 100

Operating: 283 341

305 308
297

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of Aircraft Operated

7.2 Bottom line and Shareholder Returns

Thanks to a low debt level, Ryanair is able to translate its operating results with
little discount into bottom line profits. The company’s net profit margin outperforms
the industry average significantly, providing for sustainable growth going forward.
While the airline is yet to pay out dividends, earnings are being reinvested, leading
to a high free cash flow to the firm, that comfortably covers investment in capital

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expenditures. Over the past five years, Ryanair Holdings plc shares have in-
creased by an average compound annual growth rate of 24%, demonstrating the
company’s ability to return value to its shareholders.

ROA and ROE 40.9%

32.8%
30.1%
23.7% Industry ROE: 25,1%

9.4%
7.8% 8.3%
6.2% Industry ROA: 6,7%

2015 2016 2017 Dec-2017 (LTM)

Return on Equity Return on Assets

7.3 Liquidity
Besides their focus on achieving an industry leading cost base, Ryanair’s closely
monitors and rigorously manages its working capital. This in turn provides the
company with yet another competitive advantage, namely an industry leading cash
conversion cycle of negative 18.7 days, meaning the firm can defer payments
longer than it takes to translate inventories into receivables and collect them. As a
result, the negative cash cycle serves as a source of internal short term funding,
further lowering the cost of external debt financing.

Inventory Turnover Days 0,3 Days

A/R Turnover Days 3,3 Days

A/P Turnover Days - 22,3 Days

Cash Conversion Cycle - 18,7 Days

2015 2016 2017 Dec-2017 (LTM)

(11.8)
(14.2)
(16.2)
(18.7)
Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle

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The favorable liquidity situation is further confirmed by above industry Current Ra-
tio, Quick Ratio and Cash from Operations to Current Liabilities Ratio.
A closer analysis of the liquidity
1.7x 1.6x
metrics suggests that Ryanair 1.6x
1.5x 1.4x
1.4x 1.4x
could cover all current obligations 1.3x
Disposal of
if they came due immediately. investment 0.9x
0.6x
Further, solid liquidity fosters 0.5x 0.5x

credit rating and incentivizes

banks to lend, should the compa- 2015 2016 2017 Dec-2017
(LTM)
ny require short-term funding. Current Ratio Quick Ratio CFO to Current Liabilities

7.4 Solvency
With Net Debt close to zero, the company exhibits excellent solvency metrics and
has gradually delevered over the Solvency Ratios: Gradual Delevering
recent past. Though, we want to
1.00x 0.99x
highlight that the company’s finan-
0.89x
cial leverage is considerably above 52.3% 52.8%
0.77x
industry average. This could also 49.8%
47.6% 46.9%
be due to the fact that competitors 45.9%
44.6%
do cannot replicate Ryanair’s credit 41.6%
worthiness and banks’ overall will- 2015 2016 2017 Dec-2017
(LTM)
ingness to lend to airline operates
Total Debt/Capital LT Debt/Capital LT Debt/Equity
is considered rather low.

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The firm’s future obligations can be depicted as follows:

Maturity Profile
EURmn 65

850 Total due: 1.306 1.600 Total due: 1.665

1.412
456

2021 2022 2023

Capital Lease Bonds and Notes Term Loans Bonds and Notes Other Borrowings

In conclusion, Ryanair succeeds in translating its impressive topline growth into

bottom line profitability, while demonstrating strong cash generation. It does so by
leveraging on an industry leading cost base and close focused management of
efficiency and liquidity. Ryanair is superior to its industry peers in most financial
aspects and is expected to provide value and sustainable earnings growth for
shareholders.

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8 Company Valuation
8.1 Fundamental Valuation
8.1.1 Forecasted Free Cash Flows to the Firm

8.1.2 Terminal Value

8.1.3 Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

8.1.4 Final view on Enterprise and Equity Value

8.2 Multiple Valuations

8.2.1 Trading Multiples

8.2.2 Transaction Multiples

9 Conclusion
10 Appendices

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