OUTLOOK 2018-2019
FIRST QUARTER, 2018
6 FEBRUARY 2018
EU steel-using sectors
2017 has been a strongly expansionary year for steel-using sectors in the EU. The performance
across countries and steel-using sectors became increasingly synchronised over 2017. In
particular, growth dynamics in Central Europe improved significantly compared with the overall
rather weak momentum of 2016.
Individual sectoral performances are varied. The steel tube sector posted the strongest year-on-
year jump in production activity, followed by the mechanical engineering sector, electrical
domestic appliances and construction. As had been anticipated, growth in automotive output
moderated somewhat.
The outlook for 2018 and 2019 is positive, although activity in steel-using sectors will settle back
into a more restrained pace of expansion owing to waning momentum in the tube sector and
automotive industry. Underlying economic conditions remain conducive to a steady pace of
expansion in other sectors.
Output in the EU’s steel-using sectors is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2018 and by 1.8% in 2019.
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ECONOMIC AND STEEL MARKET OUTLOOK 2018-2019
EU economic context
EU economy remained on a favourable growth track in the second half of last year. GDP growth
was driven by robust investment, solid private consumption and strong exports.
Conditions look right for the EU economy, and it is expected to maintain an above-trend growth
rate in 2018. Economic sentiment in the euro area and EU28 went going from strength to strength
over the course of 2017 and January this year saw continued strength in confidence. Investment is
expected to remain a key driver of growth, reflecting robust domestic and external demand.
Private consumption will also continue to perform well. However, exports may be impacted by
the enduring relative strength of the euro and an expected – though mild – softening in global
trade growth.
The EU economy is forecast to return to a more sustainable growth rate in 2019 as EU monetary
policy tightening may begin to dampen investment growth.
EUROFER forecasts EU GDP growth of 2.2% in 2018 and of 1.9% in 2019.
Table of Contents
Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2018-2019 ................................................................................... 2
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 2
EU Economic Outlook 2018-2019 ........................................................................................................... 4
GDP growth ........................................................................................................................................ 4
Confidence indicators ........................................................................................................................ 4
Investment.......................................................................................................................................... 5
Growth outlook for 2018 .................................................................................................................... 5
Growth outlook for 2019 .................................................................................................................... 5
The EU steel market: final use ............................................................................................................... 6
Outlook for steel-using sectors ......................................................................................................... 6
Construction industry......................................................................................................................... 6
Automotive industry .......................................................................................................................... 7
Mechanical engineering ..................................................................................................................... 8
Steel tube industry ............................................................................................................................. 9
Electrical domestic appliances industry ........................................................................................... 10
Total steel-using sectors output ....................................................................................................... 11
Real steel consumption..................................................................................................................... 12
The EU steel market: supply ................................................................................................................. 14
Apparent steel consumption ............................................................................................................ 14
Imports............................................................................................................................................... 15
Exports ...............................................................................................................................................16
Glossary of terms................................................................................................................................... 18
Sector definitions according to NACE Rev.2 .................................................................................... 18
EU steel market definitions .............................................................................................................. 18
About the European Steel Association (EUROFER) ........................................................................... 20
About the European steel industry ..................................................................................................... 20
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EU ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018-2019
CONFIDENCE INDICATORS
Economic sentiment in the euro area and EU28 has been going from strength to strength over the
course of 2017. The monthly business and consumer survey conducted by the European
Commission revealed new record levels in December. Industrial confidence continued the rally
that began in late 2016. January 2018 data show most indicators remaining very close to the
December peak level.
In January 2018 the IHS Markit surveys on the assessment of activity in manufacturing and the
services sector registered their highest readings for nearly twelve years.
While earlier in 2017 hard data on industrial production had been lagging the more positive trend
in surveys, that gap had been closing steadily over the later months of 2017. Production growth in
the EU28 manufacturing industry was 3.1% year-on-year over the first eleven months of 2017 and
even rose to an average monthly growth rate of almost 4% year-on-year in the second half.
IHS Markit surveys signal record output growth in several EU manufacturing sectors, such as
general machinery and equipment, technology equipment and in motor vehicles and automotive
parts.
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EU ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018-2019
INVESTMENT
The fact that industrial activity has been has
been enjoying a healthy growth spell in 2017
Economic indicators
reflects the welcome boost from an
Year-on-year change in %
investment-led upturn in the advanced
economies and a recovery in the emerging EUROFER 2016 2017 2018 2019
economies in general, and in the commodity Forecast (e) (f) (f)
exporting countries in particular.
EU investment is estimated to have GDP 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.9
increased by almost 4% in 2017, in spite of
widely-held fears that political uncertainty in Private 2.3 21 1.8 1.6
the EU might impact the propensity to invest consumption
in the business sector. Government 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.1
Globally, investment is also increasingly consumption
taking the baton of economic growth,
thereby bolstering international demand for Investment 1.7 3.9 3.8 3.0
capital goods. Investment 2.9 3.6 4.0 2.9
in mach.
equip.
GROWTH OUTLOOK FOR 2018 Investment in 0.7 3.7 3.0 2.7
Conditions look right for the EU economy, construction
maintaining an above-trend growth rate in
2018. Investment is expected to remain a key Exports 3.3 5.2 5.0 4.5
driver of growth, reflecting robust domestic Imports 4.3 5.2 5.2 4.5
and external demand. The supply-demand
balance is forecast to shift into the favour of Unemployme 9.3 8.4 7.9 7.4
producers and will have a positive impact on nt rate
selling prices and margins. Full order books Inflation 0.3 1.7 1.7 1.8
and increasing capacity utilisation rates
across most corporate sectors, and a Industrial 2.2 3.1 2.8 2.0
positive outlook for business conditions set production
the stage for a continuation of the (e) = estimate (f) = forecast
investment wave. Private consumption will
also continue to perform well. Exports however, may be impacted by the ongoing strength of the
euro and an expected mild weakening in global trade growth.
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THE EU STEEL MARKET: FINAL USE
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
EU construction output is estimated to have grown by 4.3% in 2017, the best performance by the
sector since 2007.
6
THE EU STEEL MARKET: FINAL USE
Construction industry
forecast 2018-2019
Construction demand will
increase further in 2018 and
2019. Housing demand will be
driven by robust levels of
consumer confidence, as well as
the low cost of, and easy access
to, finance. Migrant inflows will
also drive demand for new
housing and services. Pent-up
demand for commercial and
industrial construction dating
back to the financial and
Eurozone crises will support non-residential activity growth.
The improving financial situation of most EU member states will allow for stronger public
investment in construction. However, supply-side bottlenecks in the construction sector such as
capacity restraints and labour shortages may dampen potential output growth in several
countries.
Total EU output is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2018 and by 2.2% in 2019. Brexit uncertainty is
expected to heavily impact activity in the UK.
AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
The EU automotive sector posted stronger-than-expected growth in 2017.
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THE EU STEEL MARKET: FINAL USE
Production growth is estimated to have accelerated in the fourth quarter of last year, to 6.2%
year-on-year, reflecting a strong expansion in France, the Netherlands and most Central European
production hubs. As a consequence, growth of total EU production activity - including automotive
parts and components - in 2017 is revised upwards to 3.7%.
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
In 2017 the mechanical engineering sector benefited from a boom in capital expenditure. The
sector posted its best performance since 2011.
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THE EU STEEL MARKET: FINAL USE
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THE EU STEEL MARKET: FINAL USE
conditions in the downstream client sectors of small and medium-sized welded tubes, such as the
construction, mechanical engineering, automotive and other transport equipment, and metal
goods industry. OCTG demand improved incrementally, boosted by growth in the global rig
count.
With favourable business conditions expected to have continued in the fourth quarter of 2017,
production activity in the EU steel tube sector is estimated to have increased by another 5.2%
year-on-year in this period.
On balance, total EU tube output is expected to have risen by 8.3% in 2017, which resulted in the
best annual production volume of total steel tubes in the EU since 2012.
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THE EU STEEL MARKET: FINAL USE
recovery of new housing and residential modernisation activity and the strength of residential
property markets in general. Production activity in the fourth quarter of 2017 is estimated to have
grown by 3.9% year-on-year.
This implies that total production growth over the whole year 2017 amounted to 3.7% and as such
showed a better performance than previously expected.
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THE EU STEEL MARKET: FINAL USE
12
THE EU STEEL MARKET: FINAL USE
% change 6.6 2.5 3.5 4.4 4.2 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6
13
THE EU STEEL MARKET: SUPPLY
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THE EU STEEL MARKET: SUPPLY
% change 3.8 -0.4 1.1 3.0 1.9 1.0 4.3 1.9 0.5 1.9 1.4
IMPORTS
Following the peak in monthly steel imports –
including semi-finished steel products or
‘semis’ – in May third country imports into the
EU softened somewhat over the June-August
period but resumed a growing trend from
September.
As a consequence total imports over the first
eleven months of 2017 fell by just 1% year-on-
year and remained very close to the 2016
record level. Based on SURV2 data for
December finished steel imports decreased by
the same rate over the whole year 2017.
Imports by country
As far as the main countries of origin are concerned, India and Turkey were, in terms of volume,
the largest steel exporters to the EU in 2017, followed by China, South Korea and Russia. These
five countries represent almost 80% of total finished steel imports into the EU.
Finished product imports from India almost doubled in 2017 and imports from Turkey rose by 65%,
thereby replacing impeded imports from China. Russia. Ukraine and Brazil’s imports into the EU
decreased as these countries faced anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU Commission on
certain products found to have been dumped. Smaller exporters, such as Serbia, Egypt and
Taiwan benefitted from the gap left by the partial withdrawal of the countries that had measures
imposed on them from the EU market, reflecting the continued existence of global excess
capacity looking for outlets.
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THE EU STEEL MARKET: SUPPLY
2017. The anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures imposed by the EU Commission in 2017 had a
positive impact on the overall reduction in imports from third countries. Global steel market
supply and demand also gradually became better balanced owing to improving demand
conditions and production cuts in China.
At the individual product level, imports of hot-rolled coil, quarto plate and tin mill products fell by
16%, 18% and 10% in 2017, respectively. Imports of all other major flat products rose sharply: cold-
rolled sheet imports grew by 21% and hot-dipped galvanised sheet imports increased by 27% over
the whole year 2017. Most long product imports showed a downward tendency. This was
particularly the case with heavy sections and rebar, while wire rod imports rose by 5%.
EXPORTS
Total EU exports of steel products to
third countries rose by 1% year-on-year
over the first eleven months of 2017.
While semis exports more or less
doubled compared with the same
period of 2016, total finished product
exports decreased by 3% year-on-year.
This reflected a 4% rise in flat product
exports and a 15% contraction in long
product exports.
Exports by country
Turkey and North America were the main export destinations for EU flat and long product
exports.
EU rebar producers have been able to book some tonnage from the volume opened up to
exporters by Algeria’s Ministry of Commerce in the final months of 2017. This helped to soften the
overall reduction in EU long product exports, but could not prevent rebar exports from falling by
almost 50% year-on-year over the first eleven months of last year.
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THE EU STEEL MARKET: SUPPLY
The main destination countries for EU flat exports over the first eleven months of 2017 were
Turkey and North America. The main destinations for long product exports were North America,
Algeria and Turkey.
Finished steel product exports accounted for 92% of total EU exports over the first eleven months
of 2017; the remaining 8% was semis. Flat product exports made up for 65% of total finished
exports and long product exports for the remaining 35%.
Trade balance
The slight reduction in imports and increase in exports resulted in a relative improvement in the
EU’s net trade deficit to an average of 870 kilotonnes per month over the first eleven months of
2017 compared with the 2016 monthly average of 913 kilotonnes.
The trade deficit in semis fell from on average 691 kilotonnes per month in 2016 to 560 KT over
the January-November 2017 period. There was a sharp rise in the deficit in finished products, from
on average 222 kilotonnes per month in 2016 to 310 kilotonnes per month over the first eleven
months of this year.
The deficit for flat products decreased modestly, from on average 550 kilotonnes per month in
2016 to 528 kilotonnes per month, while the trade surplus in long products decreased from an
average of 328 kilotonnes per month in 2016 to 218 kilotonnes over the first eleven months of
2017.
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
SECTOR DEFINITIONS ACCORDING TO NACE REV.2
Building & Civil Engineering
41 Construction of buildings
42 Civil engineering
43 Specialised construction activities
25.1 Manufacture of metal structures and part of structures
25.2 Manufacture of tanks. generators. radiators. boilers
Mechanical Engineering
28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment
27.1 Manufacture of electric motors. generators. transformers
25.3 Manufacture of steam generators. except central heating hot water boilers
Automotive
29 Manufacture of motor vehicles and trailers
Domestic Appliances
27.51 Manufacture of electric domestic appliances
Other Transport Equipment
30 Manufacture of other transport equipment
30.1 Building and repair of ships
30.2 Manufacture of railway locomotives and rolling stock
30.91 Manufacture of motorcycles
Steel Tubes
24.2 Manufacture of steel tubes
Metal Goods
25 Manufacture of fabricated metal products excluding 25.1-25.2-25.3
Other sectors
26 Manufacture of computer. electronic and optical products
27 Manufacture of electric motors. generators. transformers and electricity distribution and
control apparatus excluding 27.1 and 27.5
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS
being withdrawn. In formula: total deliveries + imports from third countries – exports to third
countries – steel industry receipts
Steel industry receipts: deliveries for further processing from within the steel industry itself –
subtracted to avoid double-counting of steel consumption
Narrow definition: EUROFER applies the so-called “narrow definition” which excludes steel tubes
and first transformation products from the product scope used for calculating steel consumption.
Hence, the steel tube sector is a steel using sector under this definition
Steel intensity: the ratio of real steel consumption to steel weighted production in the steel using
sectors. This reflects the usually slightly negative impact on consumption of innovation in steel
products, inter-material substitution, improvements in process efficiency and design, etc.
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ABOUT THE EUROPEAN STEEL ASSOCIATION (EUROFER)
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