Lecture Interval Estimation

Interval Estimation
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Slide 1
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimation
 Population Mean: s Known
 Population Mean: s Unknown
 Determining the Sample Size
 Population Proportion
Slide 2
Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate
A point estimator cannot be expected to provide the

exact value of the population parameter.
An interval estimate can be computed by adding and

subtracting a margin of error to the point estimate.
Point Estimate +/- Margin of Error
The purpose of an interval estimate is to provide

information about how close the point estimate is to
the value of the parameter.
Slide 3
Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate
The general form of an interval estimate of a

population mean is
x  Margin of Error
Slide 4
Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Known
 In order to develop an interval estimate of a
population mean, the margin of error must be
computed using either:
• the population standard deviation s , or
• the sample standard deviation s
 s is rarely known exactly, but often a good estimate
can be obtained based on historical data or other
information.
 We refer to such cases as the s known case.
Slide 5
s Known
There is a 1 -  probability that the value of a
sample mean will provide a margin of error of z /2 s x
or less.
Sampling
distribution
of x
/2 1 -  of all /2

x values
x

z /2 s x z /2 s x
Slide 6
s Known
Sampling
distribution
of x
1 -  of all
/2 /2
x values
interval
does not x

include  interval
z /2 s x z /2 s x
includes 
[------------------------- x -------------------------]
[------------------------- x -------------------------]
[------------------------- x -------------------------]
Slide 7
s Known
 Interval Estimate of 
s
x  z /2
n
where: x is the sample mean

1 - is the confidence coefficient
z/2 is the z value providing an area of
/2 in the upper tail of the standard
normal probability distribution
s is the population standard deviation
n is the sample size
Slide 8
s Known
 Values of z/2 for the Most Commonly Used
Confidence Levels
Confidence Table
Level  /2 Look-up Area z/2
90% .10 .05 .9500 1.645
95% .05 .025 .9750 1.960
99% .01 .005 .9950 2.576
Slide 9
Meaning of Confidence
Because 90% of all the intervals constructed using

will contain the population mean,
we say we are 90% confident that the interval
includes the population mean .
We say that this interval has been established at the

90% confidence level.
The value .90 is referred to as the confidence

coefficient.
Slide 10
s Known
 Example: Discount Sounds
Discount Sounds has 260 retail outlets throughout
the United States. The firm is evaluating a potential
location for a new outlet, based in part, on the mean
annual income of the individuals in the marketing
area of the new location.
A sample of size n = 36 was taken; the sample
mean income is $41,100. The population is not
believed to be highly skewed. The population
standard deviation is estimated to be $4,500, and the
confidence coefficient to be used in the interval
estimate is .95.
Slide 11
s Known
95% of the sample means that can be observed
are within + 1.96 s x of the population mean .
The margin of error is:
s  4,500 
z /2  1.96    1, 470
n  36 
Thus, at 95% confidence,

the margin of error is $1,470.
Slide 12
s Known
Interval estimate of  is:
$41,100 + $1,470
or
$39,630 to $42,570
We are 95% confident that the interval contains the

population mean.
Slide 13
Using Excel to Construct a
Confidence Interval: s Known Case
 Excel Formula Worksheet
A B C
1 Income Sample Size =COUNT(A2:A37)
2 45,600 Sample Mean =AVERAGE(A2:A37)
3 39,601
4 40,035 Population Std. Dev. 4500
5 41,735 Confidence Coeff. 0.95
6 37,600 Lev. of Significance =1-C5
7 46,080
8 48,925 Margin of Error =CONFIDENCE.NORM(C6,C4,C1)
9 45,350
Note:
10 35,900 Point Estimate =C2
Rows 13-37
11 37,550 Lower Limit =C10-C8
are not shown.
12 34,745 Upper Limit =C10+C8
Slide 14
Using Excel to Construct a
Confidence Interval: s Known Case
 Excel Value Worksheet
A B C
1 Income Sample Size 36
2 45,600 Sample Mean 41,100.00
3 39,601
4 40,035 Population Std. Dev. 4500
5 41,735 Confidence Coeff. 0.95
6 37,600 Lev. of Significance 0.05
7 46,080
8 48,925 Margin of Error 1,470.00
9 45,350
Note:
10 35,900 Point Estimate 41,100.00
Rows 13-37
11 37,550 Lower Limit 39,630.00
are not shown.
12 34,745 Upper Limit 42,570.00
Slide 15
s Known
Confidence Margin
Level of Error Interval Estimate
90% 3.29 78.71 to 85.29
95% 3.92 78.08 to 85.92
99% 5.15 76.85 to 87.15
In order to have a higher degree of confidence,

the margin of error and thus the width of the
confidence interval must be larger.
Slide 16
s Known
 Adequate Sample Size
In most applications, a sample size of n = 30 is

adequate.
If the population distribution is highly skewed or

contains outliers, a sample size of 50 or more is
recommended.
Slide 17
s Known
 Adequate Sample Size (continued)
If the population is not normally distributed but is

roughly symmetric, a sample size as small as 15
will suffice.
If the population is believed to be at least

approximately normal, a sample size of less than 15
can be used.
Slide 18
s Unknown
 If an estimate of the population standard deviation s
cannot be developed prior to sampling, we use the
sample standard deviation s to estimate s .
 This is the s unknown case.
 In this case, the interval estimate for  is based on the
t distribution.
 (We’ll assume for now that the population is
normally distributed.)
Slide 19
t Distribution
William Gosset, writing under the name “Student”,

is the founder of the t distribution.
Gosset was an Oxford graduate in mathematics and

worked for the Guinness Brewery in Dublin.
He developed the t distribution while working on

small-scale materials and temperature experiments.
Slide 20
t Distribution
The t distribution is a family of similar probability

distributions.
A specific t distribution depends on a parameter

known as the degrees of freedom.
Degrees of freedom refer to the number of

independent pieces of information that go into the
computation of s.
Slide 21
t Distribution
A t distribution with more degrees of freedom has

less dispersion.
As the degrees of freedom increases, the difference

between the t distribution and the standard normal
probability distribution becomes smaller and
smaller.
Slide 22
t Distribution
t distribution
Standard (20 degrees
normal of freedom)
distribution
t distribution
(10 degrees
of freedom)
z, t
0
Slide 23
t Distribution
For more than 100 degrees of freedom, the standard

normal z value provides a good approximation to
the t value.
The standard normal z values can be found in the

infinite degrees ( ) row of the t distribution table.
Slide 24
t Distribution
Standard normal
z values
Slide 25
s Unknown
 Interval Estimate
s
x  t /2
n
where: 1 - = the confidence coefficient

t/2 = the t value providing an area of /2
in the upper tail of a t distribution
with n - 1 degrees of freedom
s = the sample standard deviation
Slide 26
s Unknown
 Example: Apartment Rents
A reporter for a student newspaper is writing an
article on the cost of off-campus housing. A sample
of 16 efficiency apartments within a half-mile of
campus resulted in a sample mean of $750 per month
and a sample standard deviation of $55.
Let us provide a 95% confidence interval estimate
of the mean rent per month for the population of
efficiency apartments within a half-mile of campus.
We will assume this population to be normally
distributed.
Slide 27
s Unknown
At 95% confidence,  = .05, and /2 = .025.
t.025 is based on n - 1 = 16 - 1 = 15 degrees of freedom.
In the t distribution table we see that t.025 = 2.131.
Slide 28
s Unknown
s
x  t.025 Margin
n of Error
55
750  2.131  650  29.30
16
We are 95% confident that the mean rent per month

for the population of efficiency apartments within a
half-mile of campus is between $720.70 and $779.30.
Slide 29
Using Excel’s
Descriptive Statistics Tool
Step 1 Click the Data tab on the Ribbon
Step 2 In the Analysis group, click Data Analysis
Step 3 Choose Descriptive Statistics from the list of
Analysis Tools
Step 4 When the Descriptive Statistics dialog box appears:
(see details on next slide)
Slide 30
Using Excel’s
Slide 31
Using Excel’s
A B C D
1 Rent Rent
2 775
Point
3 810 Mean 650 Estimate
4 720 Standard Error 13.75348
5 700 Median 664
6 670 Mode #N/A
7 795 Standard Deviation 55.01394
8 768 Sample Variance 3026.533
9 660 Kurtosis -0.62925
10 750 Skewness -0.77274
11 645 Range 170
12 805 Minimum 545
13 780 Maximum 715
14 790 Sum 10400 Margin
15 815 Count 16 of Error
16 757 Confidence Level (95%) 29.31488
Slide 32
s Unknown
 Adequate Sample Size
In most applications, a sample size of n = 30 is

adequate when using the expression to
develop an interval estimate of a population mean.
If the population distribution is highly skewed or

contains outliers, a sample size of 50 or more is
recommended.
Slide 33
s Unknown
 Adequate Sample Size (continued)
If the population is not normally distributed but is

roughly symmetric, a sample size as small as 15
will suffice.
If the population is believed to be at least

approximately normal, a sample size of less than 15
can be used.
Slide 34
Summary of Interval Estimation Procedures
for a Population Mean
Can the
Yes No
population standard
deviation s be assumed
known ?
Use the sample
standard deviation
s Known s to estimate s
Case
Use Use
s s Unknown s
x  z /2 Case x  t /2
n n
Slide 35
Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Mean
Let E = the desired margin of error.
E is the amount added to and subtracted from the

point estimate to obtain an interval estimate.
If a desired margin of error is selected prior to

sampling, the sample size necessary to satisfy the
margin of error can be determined.
Slide 36
 Margin of Error
s
E  z /2
n
 Necessary Sample Size
( z / 2 ) 2 s 2
n
E2
Slide 37
The Necessary Sample Size equation requires a

value for the population standard deviation s .
If s is unknown, a preliminary or planning value

for s can be used in the equation.
1. Use the estimate of the population standard

deviation computed in a previous study.
2. Use a pilot study to select a preliminary study and

use the sample standard deviation from the study.
3. Use judgment or a “best guess” for the value of s .

Slide 38
Recall that Discount Sounds is evaluating a
potential location for a new retail outlet, based in
part, on the mean annual income of the individuals in
the marketing area of the new location.
Suppose that Discount Sounds’ management team
wants an estimate of the population mean such that
there is a .95 probability that the sampling error is
$500 or less.
How large a sample size is needed to meet the
required precision?
Slide 39
s
z /2  500
n
At 95% confidence, z.025 = 1.96. Recall that s= 4,500.
(1.96)2 (4, 500)2
n 2
 311.17  312
(500)
A sample of size 312 is needed to reach a desired

precision of + $500 at 95% confidence.
Slide 40
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
The general form of an interval estimate of a
population proportion is
p  Margin of Error
Slide 41
Interval Estimate
The sampling distribution of plays a key role in

computing the margin of error for this interval
estimate.
The sampling distribution of can be approximated

by a normal distribution whenever np > 5 and
n(1 – p) > 5.
Slide 42
Interval Estimate
 Normal Approximation of Sampling Distribution of p
Sampling
p(1 - p)
distribution sp 
of p n
/2 1 -  of all /2

p values
p
p
z /2s p z /2s p
Slide 43
Interval Estimate
p (1 - p )
p  z / 2
n
where: 1 - is the confidence coefficient

z/2 is the z value providing an area of
/2 in the upper tail of the standard
normal probability distribution
p is the sample proportion
Slide 44
Interval Estimate
 Example: Political Science, Inc.
Political Science, Inc. (PSI) specializes in voter polls
and surveys designed to keep political office seekers
informed of their position in a race.
Using telephone surveys, PSI interviewers ask
registered voters who they would vote for if the
election were held that day.
Slide 45
Interval Estimate
In a current election campaign, PSI has just found
that 220 registered voters, out of 500 contacted, favor
a particular candidate. PSI wants to develop a 95%
confidence interval estimate for the proportion of the
population of registered voters that favor the
candidate.
Slide 46
Interval Estimate
p (1 - p )
p  z / 2
n
where: n = 500, p = 220/500 = .44, z/2 = 1.96
.44(1 - .44)
.44  1.96 = .44 + .0435
500
PSI is 95% confident that the proportion of all voters

that favor the candidate is between .3965 and .4835.
Slide 47
Using Excel to Construct
a Confidence Interval
 Excel Formula Worksheet
A B C
1 Favor Sample Size =COUNTA(A2:A501)
2 Yes Response of Interest Yes
3 Yes Count for Response =COUNTIF(A2:A501,C2)
4 No Sample Proportion =C3/C1
Note:
5 Yes
Rows 16-501
6 No Confid. Coefficient 0.95
are not shown.
7 No Lev. of Significance =1-C6
8 No z Value =NORM.S.INV(1-C7/2)
9 No
10 Yes Standard Error =SQRT(C4*(1-C4)/C1)
11 No Margin of Error =C8*C10
12 Yes
13 No Point Estimate =C4
14 Yes Lower Limit =C13-C11
15 Yes Upper Limit =C13+C11
Slide 48
Using Excel to Construct
a Confidence Interval
A B C
1 Favor Sample Size 500
2 Yes Response of Interest Yes
3 Yes Count for Response 220
4 No Sample Proportion 0.4400
Note:
5 Yes
Rows 16-501
6 No Confid. Coefficient 0.95
are not shown.
7 No Lev. of Significance 0.05
8 No z Value 1.9600
9 No
10 Yes Standard Error 0.02220
11 No Margin of Error 0.04351
12 Yes
13 No Point Estimate 0.4400
14 Yes Lower Limit 0.3965
15 Yes Upper Limit 0.4835
Slide 49
 Margin of Error
p (1 - p )
E  z / 2
n
Solving for the necessary sample size, we get

( z / 2 ) 2 p (1 - p )
n
E2
However, p will not be known until after we have
selected the sample. We will use the planning value
p* for p.
Slide 50
 Necessary Sample Size
( z / 2 ) 2 p* (1 - p* )
n
E2
The planning value p* can be chosen by:

1. Using the sample proportion from a previous
sample of the same or similar units, or
2. Selecting a preliminary sample and using the
sample proportion from this sample.
3. Use judgment or a “best guess” for a p* value.
4. Otherwise, use .50 as the p* value.
Slide 51
Suppose that PSI would like a .99 probability that
the sample proportion is within + .03 of the
population proportion.
How large a sample size is needed to meet the
required precision? (A previous sample of similar
units yielded .44 for the sample proportion.)
Slide 52
p(1 - p )
z /2  .03
n
At 99% confidence, z.005 = 2.576. Recall that p = .44.

( z /2 )2 p(1 - p) (2.576)2 (.44)(.56)
n   1817
E2 (.03) 2
A sample of size 1817 is needed to reach a desired

precision of + .03 at 99% confidence.
Slide 53
Note: We used .44 as the best estimate of p in the

preceding expression. If no information is available
about p, then .5 is often assumed because it provides
the highest possible sample size. If we had used
p = .5, the recommended n would have been 1843.
Slide 54
End of Presentation
Slide 55

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Interval Estimation

A point estimator cannot be expected to provide the

An interval estimate can be computed by adding and

Point Estimate +/- Margin of Error

The purpose of an interval estimate is to provide

The general form of an interval estimate of a

/2 1 -  of all /2

where: x is the sample mean

Because 90% of all the intervals constructed using

We say that this interval has been established at the

The value .90 is referred to as the confidence

Thus, at 95% confidence,

We are 95% confident that the interval contains the

In order to have a higher degree of confidence,

In most applications, a sample size of n = 30 is

If the population distribution is highly skewed or

If the population is not normally distributed but is

If the population is believed to be at least

William Gosset, writing under the name “Student”,

Gosset was an Oxford graduate in mathematics and

He developed the t distribution while working on

The t distribution is a family of similar probability

A specific t distribution depends on a parameter

Degrees of freedom refer to the number of

A t distribution with more degrees of freedom has

As the degrees of freedom increases, the difference

For more than 100 degrees of freedom, the standard

The standard normal z values can be found in the

where: 1 - = the confidence coefficient

We are 95% confident that the mean rent per month

In most applications, a sample size of n = 30 is

If the population distribution is highly skewed or

If the population is not normally distributed but is

If the population is believed to be at least

Let E = the desired margin of error.

E is the amount added to and subtracted from the

If a desired margin of error is selected prior to

 Necessary Sample Size

The Necessary Sample Size equation requires a

If s is unknown, a preliminary or planning value

1. Use the estimate of the population standard

2. Use a pilot study to select a preliminary study and

3. Use judgment or a “best guess” for the value of s .

A sample of size 312 is needed to reach a desired

The sampling distribution of plays a key role in

The sampling distribution of can be approximated

/2 1 -  of all /2

where: 1 - is the confidence coefficient

PSI is 95% confident that the proportion of all voters

Solving for the necessary sample size, we get

The planning value p* can be chosen by:

At 99% confidence, z.005 = 2.576. Recall that p = .44.

A sample of size 1817 is needed to reach a desired

Note: We used .44 as the best estimate of p in the

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