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Kategori PDRB
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pertanian, Kehutanan, dan Perikanan 87242.9 91 439.50 97 255.60 101 653 106 331.40 109 482.20
Pertambangan dan Penggalian 322739.4 333 301.90 344 173.10 372 344.70 42 010.10 1 147.80
Industri Pengolahan 712872.2 730 586.40 762 913.30 795 766.90 845 296.90 890 658.10
Pengadaan Listrik dan Gas 31266.5 34 276 36 513.60 24 193 26 314.40 27 859.40
Pengadaan Air, pengelolaan
6093.5 6 534.90 7 255.90 7 888.40 8 454.80 8 715.40
Sampah,Limbah Konstruksi
Konstruksi 3041532.5 3289734.8 3580366.2 3903061.6 4203463.4 4404142.3
Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran; Reparasi
1823484.4 1953493.9 2099478.1 2288861.5 2579407.8 2771105.2
Mobil dan Sepeda
Transportasi dan Pergudangan 521016.6 558987.1 606558 651834.5 707656 772999.8
Penyediaan Akomodasi dan Makan Minum 110001 116 808.70 125 215.80 134 046.60 145 812.50 156 022.40
Informasi dan Komunikasi 294637.5 323 606.60 351 881 386 809.10 421 496.30 442 739.90
Jasa Keuangan dan Asuransi 292511.7 338 294.10 357 613.50 377 758.10 401 635.40 416 936.10
Real Estate 298806.1 325 536.70 344 794.50 368 266.50 393 336.40 419 400.80
Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial 247619.7 259 488.10 273 848.50 290 613.80 309 405.50 328 344.20
Jasa lainnya 124909 124 133.50 129 578.80 134 125 140 183.30 147 982.90
PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO 9141659.1 9784368.2 10479811.9 11294826.3 11891255.8 12567987
50,000,000
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
-
10 012 014 16 018 20 022 24 026 028 030 032 034 036
20 2 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 20
Tahun TOTAL
2016
PDRB ADHK
800,000,000
700,000,000
600,000,000
500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
-
10 012 014 016 018 020 02
20 2 2 2 2 2 2
EKSISTING
[Seri 2010] PDRB Triwulanan Atas Dasar Harga Konstan Menurut Lapangan Usaha (Juta Rupiah)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2016
2017
Juta Rupiah
PDRB ADHK
TOTAL SEKTOR
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI INDUSTRI PENGOLAHAN KONSTRUKSI
100,000
50,000
EKSISTING PROYEKSI
265,364
PROYEKSI
Tahun PDRB
2010 111,223,671,600,000
2017 166,198,417,700,000
55
48
Maret April Mei Juni Juli
Bongkar Muat Bongkar Muat Bongkar Muat Bongkar Muat Bongkar Muat
-
1,516 - 1,008 - 2,104 - 1,067 - 605
144 - 30 - 51 - 24 - 24 -
51 - 135 - 192 - 73 - 53 -
- - - - 18 - 18 - 18 -
- - - - - - 12 - 12 -
-
653 - 30 - 1,572 - 18 - 6 -
3,672 - 5,554 - 5,218 - 8,708 - 7,535 -
387 - 504 - 156 - 324 - 730 -
- - - - - - - - -
795 - 25 248 25 - 4,187 203 4,989 597
7,181 - 3,629 - 2,840 248 2,840 248 2,840 248
77
15
525 215 215
- - - - - - - - 45 -
24 24
- - - - - - 24 -
- - - - - - - -
- - 15 - 120 - 120 - 140 -
- - - - 15 - 38 - 74 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
45
505 371 315 596
- - 447 - 255 - 379 - 432
126 0 135 0 85 0 130 0 89
0 0 0 6 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
81
6 6 6 6
25 25
20 20
165 - 68 - 102 - 235 - 123
Agustus September Oktober November Desember
Bongkar Muat Bongkar Muat Bongkar Muat Bongkar Muat Bongkar Muat
2
200
700,000
1,400,000
350,000,000,000
BONGKAR
PDRB
BONGKAR/MUAT
BONGKAR
Tahun
Variabel Dependen
2014 250,985
2015 241,976
2016 211,998
2017 216,651
2018 220,214
MUAT
PDRB
BONGKAR/MUAT
MUAT
Tahun
Variabel Dependen
2014 15,073
2015 22,465
2016 12,726
2017 9,511
2018 22,288
Optimis Moderat
3.61 7.02
54.69 5.75
Variabel Independen
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI PERDAGANGAN JASA
651,835 2,288,862
707,656 2,579,408
773,000 2,771,105
815,748 3,000,908
857,951 3,179,995
Optimis Moderat
3.61 1.30
(22.06) 3.61
Variabel Independen
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI PERDAGANGAN JASA
651,835 2,288,862
707,656 2,579,408
773,000 2,771,105
815,748 3,000,908
857,951 3,179,995
Pesimis
0.08
0.92
ndependen
KONSTRUKSI Nilai Ekspor Nilai Impor
3,903,062 149,236,698 30,242,078
4,203,463 13,205,546 16,020,418
4,404,142 7,436,639 6,708,127
4,531,323 7,330,969 14,431,394
4,482,491 5,836,545 11,217,624
Pesimis
0.48
7.02
ndependen
Nilai Impor KONSTRUKSI Nilai Ekspor
30,242,078 3,903,062 149,236,698
16,020,418 4,203,463 13,205,546
6,708,127 4,404,142 7,436,639
14,431,394 4,531,323 7,330,969
11,217,624 4,482,491 5,836,545
BONGKAR
Tahun R optimis R moderat
2005 247394 247394
2006 306594 306594
2007 334344 334344
2008 244197 244197
2009 223043 223043
2010 205167 205167
2011 235500 235500
2012 252363 252363
2013 265124 265124
2014 250,985 250,985
2015 241,976 241,976
2016 211,998 211,998
2017 216,651 216,651
2018 220,214 220,214
2019 228,157 235,663
2020 352,925 249,204
2021 545,923 263,522
2022 844,462 278,663
2023 1,306,257 294,674
2024 2,020,585 311,605
2025 3,125,545 329,509
2026 4,834,754 348,442
2027 7,478,645 368,462
2028 11,568,353 389,633
2029 17,894,524 412,020
2030 27,680,169 435,693
2031 42,817,109 460,726
2032 66,231,706 487,198
2033 102,450,607 515,191
2034 158,475,867 544,792
2035 245,138,620 576,094
2036 379,193,021 609,194
2037 586,555,261 644,196
2038 907,313,835 681,210
2039 1,403,479,690 720,350
2040 2,170,974,546 761,738
2041 3,358,175,049 805,505
2042 5,194,597,828 851,787
2043 8,035,271,004 900,728
2044 12,429,370,327 952,480
2045 19,226,389,084 1,007,207
2046 29,740,367,171 1,065,077
2047 46,003,929,056 1,126,273
2048 71,161,242,781 1,190,985
2049 110,075,869,127 1,259,415
2050 170,271,013,976 1,331,777
MUAT
Tahun R optimis R moderat
2005 14,905 14,905
2006 11,476 11,476
2007 12,855 12,855
2008 10,781 10,781
2009 10,895 10,895
2010 14,977 14,977
2011 10,612 10,612
2012 17,064 17,064
2013 18,124 18,124
2014 15,073 15,073
2015 22,465 22,465
2016 12,726 12,726
2017 9,511 9,511
2018 22,288 22,288
2019 23,092 22,577
2020 23,925 22,870
2021 24,788 23,166
2022 25,682 23,466
2023 26,608 23,770
2024 27,568 24,079
2025 28,562 24,391
2026 29,593 24,707
2027 30,660 25,027
2028 31,766 25,351
2029 32,912 25,680
2030 34,099 26,013
2031 35,329 26,350
2032 36,603 26,692
2033 37,924 27,038
2034 39,292 27,388
2035 40,709 27,743
2036 42,177 28,103
2037 43,698 28,467
2038 45,275 28,836
2039 46,908 29,210
2040 48,600 29,588
2041 50,353 29,972
2042 52,169 30,360
2043 54,051 30,754
2044 56,000 31,152
2045 58,020 31,556
2046 60,113 31,965
2047 62,281 32,380
2048 64,528 32,799
2049 66,855 33,224
R Pesimis Regresion Model
247394 OPTIMIS
120000000000
306594
334344
100000000000
244197
223043 80000000000
205167
235500 60000000000
252363
265124 40000000000
250,985
241,976 20000000000
211,998
216,651 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
220,214
220,383
220,553 MODERATE
220,722 120000000000
220,892
221,062 100000000000
221,232
80000000000
221,402
221,572
60000000000
221,743
221,913
40000000000
222,084
222,255 20000000000
222,426
222,597 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
222,768
222,939
223,111 PESIMIS
223,282 400000
350000
300000
250000
PESIMIS
400000
223,454
350000
223,626
223,798 300000
223,970
250000
224,142
224,315 200000
224,487 150000
224,660
100000
224,832
225,005 50000
225,178
0
225,352 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 3
225,525
225,698
R Pesimis
14,905 OPTIMIS
11,476 80,000
12,855 70,000
10,781
60,000
10,895
14,977 50,000
10,612 40,000
17,064
18,124 30,000
15,073 20,000
22,465
10,000
12,726
9,511 -
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
22,288
22,394
22,501
MODERATE
22,608 35,000
22,716
22,824 30,000
22,933
25,000
23,042
23,152 20,000
23,263
23,374 15,000
23,485 10,000
23,597
23,709 5,000
-
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
15,000
10,000
5,000
23,822
-
23,936 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
24,050
24,165
24,280 PESIMIS
24,396 30,000
24,512
25,000
24,629
24,746
20,000
24,864
24,983 15,000
25,102
25,221 10,000
25,342
25,463 5,000
25,584
25,706 -
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
25,828
Tahun Bongkar Muat Total
OPTIMIS 2005 247,394 14,905 262,299
2006 306,594 11,476 318,070
2007 334,344 12,855 347,199
2008 244,197 10,781 254,978
2009 223,043 10,895 233,938
2010 205,167 14,977 220,144
2011 235,500 10,612 246,112
2012 252,363 17,064 269,427
2013 265,124 18,124 283,248
2014 250,985 15,073 266,058
2015 241,976 22,465 264,441
2016 211,998 12,726 224,724
2017 216,651 9,511 226,162
19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
2018 220,214 22,288 242,502
ODERATE 400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
-
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PESIMIS
PESIMIS
21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
OPTIMIS
9 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
ODERATE
9 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
9 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
PESIMIS
19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
Tahun R optimis R moderat R Pesimis
2005 262,299 262,299 262,299
2006 318,070 318,070 318,070
2007 347,199 347,199 347,199
73.43858 2008 254,978 254,978 254,978
2009 233,938 233,938 233,938
2010 220,144 220,144 220,144
2011 246,112 246,112 246,112
2012 269,427 269,427 269,427
2013 283,248 283,248 283,248
2014 266,058 266,058 266,058
2015 264,441 264,441 264,441
2016 224,724 224,724 224,724
2017 226,162 226,162 226,162
2018 242,502 242,502 242,502
2019 251,249 258,240 242,778
2020 376,850 272,073 243,054
2021 570,711 286,688 243,331
2022 870,144 302,130 243,608
2023 1,332,865 318,445 243,886
2024 2,048,153 335,684 244,165
2025 3,154,107 353,900 244,445
2026 4,864,346 373,148 244,725
2027 7,509,306 393,489 245,006
2028 11,600,119 414,984 245,287
2029 17,927,436 437,700 245,569
2030 27,714,268 461,706 245,852
2031 42,852,438 487,076 246,135
2032 66,268,309 513,890 246,419
2033 102,488,531 542,228 246,704
2015 2016 2017 2018 2034 158,515,159 572,180 246,989
2035 245,179,328 603,837 247,276
2036 379,235,198 637,297 247,562
2037 586,598,959 672,663 247,850
2038 907,359,110 710,046 248,138
2039 1,403,526,598 749,559 248,427
BONGKAR
PDRB
BONGKAR/MUAT
BONGKAR
Tahun
Variabel Dependen
2014 250,985
2015 241,976
2016 211,998
2017 216,651
2018 220,214
MUAT
PDRB
BONGKAR/MUAT
MUAT
Tahun
Variabel Dependen
2014 15,073
2015 22,465
2016 12,726
2017 9,511
2018 22,288
Optimis Moderat
3.61 7.02
54.69 5.75
Variabel Independen
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI PERDAGANGAN JASA
651,835 2,288,862
707,656 2,579,408
773,000 2,771,105
815,748 3,000,908
857,951 3,179,995
Optimis Moderat
3.61 1.30
(22.06) 3.61
Variabel Independen
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI PERDAGANGAN JASA
651,835 2,288,862
707,656 2,579,408
773,000 2,771,105
815,748 3,000,908
857,951 3,179,995
Pesimis
0.08
0.92
ndependen
KONSTRUKSI Nilai Ekspor Nilai Impor
3,903,062 149,236,698 30,242,078
4,203,463 13,205,546 16,020,418
4,404,142 7,436,639 6,708,127
4,531,323 7,330,969 14,431,394
4,482,491 5,836,545 11,217,624
Pesimis
0.48
7.02
ndependen
Nilai Impor KONSTRUKSI Nilai Ekspor
30,242,078 3,903,062 149,236,698
16,020,418 4,203,463 13,205,546
6,708,127 4,404,142 7,436,639
14,431,394 4,531,323 7,330,969
11,217,624 4,482,491 5,836,545
BONGKAR
Tahun R optimis R moderat
2005 247394 247394
2006 306594 306594
2007 334344 334344
2008 244197 244197
2009 223043 223043
2010 205167 205167
2011 235500 235500
2012 252363 252363
2013 265124 265124
2014 250,985 250,985
2015 241,976 241,976
2016 211,998 211,998
2017 216,651 216,651
2018 220,214 220,214
2019 228,157 235,663
2020 352,925 249,204
2021 545,923 263,522
2022 844,462 278,663
2023 1,306,257 294,674
2024 2,020,585 311,605
2025 3,125,545 329,509
2026 4,834,754 348,442
2027 7,478,645 368,462
2028 11,568,353 389,633
2029 17,894,524 412,020
2030 27,680,169 435,693
2031 42,817,109 460,726
2032 66,231,706 487,198
2033 102,450,607 515,191
2034 158,475,867 544,792
2035 245,138,620 576,094
2036 379,193,021 609,194
2037 586,555,261 644,196
2038 907,313,835 681,210
2039 1,403,479,690 720,350
2040 2,170,974,546 761,738
2041 3,358,175,049 805,505
2042 5,194,597,828 851,787
2043 8,035,271,004 900,728
2044 12,429,370,327 952,480
2045 19,226,389,084 1,007,207
2046 29,740,367,171 1,065,077
2047 46,003,929,056 1,126,273
2048 71,161,242,781 1,190,985
2049 110,075,869,127 1,259,415
2050 170,271,013,976 1,331,777
MUAT
Tahun R optimis R moderat
2005 14,905 14,905
2006 11,476 11,476
2007 12,855 12,855
2008 10,781 10,781
2009 10,895 10,895
2010 14,977 14,977
2011 10,612 10,612
2012 17,064 17,064
2013 18,124 18,124
2014 15,073 15,073
2015 22,465 22,465
2016 12,726 12,726
2017 9,511 9,511
2018 22,288 22,288
2019 23,092 22,577
2020 23,925 22,870
2021 24,788 23,166
2022 25,682 23,466
2023 26,608 23,770
2024 27,568 24,079
2025 28,562 24,391
2026 29,593 24,707
2027 30,660 25,027
2028 31,766 25,351
2029 32,912 25,680
2030 34,099 26,013
2031 35,329 26,350
2032 36,603 26,692
2033 37,924 27,038
2034 39,292 27,388
2035 40,709 27,743
2036 42,177 28,103
2037 43,698 28,467
2038 45,275 28,836
2039 46,908 29,210
2040 48,600 29,588
2041 50,353 29,972
2042 52,169 30,360
2043 54,051 30,754
2044 56,000 31,152
2045 58,020 31,556
2046 60,113 31,965
2047 62,281 32,380
2048 64,528 32,799
2049 66,855 33,224
R Pesimis
247394 OPTIMIS
120000000000
306594
334344
100000000000
244197
223043 80000000000
205167
235500 60000000000
252363
265124 40000000000
250,985
241,976 20000000000
211,998
216,651 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
220,214
220,383
220,553 MODERATE
220,722 120000000000
220,892
221,062 100000000000
221,232
80000000000
221,402
221,572
60000000000
221,743
221,913
40000000000
222,084
222,255 20000000000
222,426
222,597 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
222,768
222,939
223,111 PESIMIS
223,282 400000
350000
300000
250000
PESIMIS
400000
223,454
350000
223,626
223,798 300000
223,970
250000
224,142
224,315 200000
224,487 150000
224,660
100000
224,832
225,005 50000
225,178
0
225,352 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
225,525
225,698
R Pesimis
14,905 OPTIMIS
11,476 80,000
12,855 70,000
10,781
60,000
10,895
14,977 50,000
10,612 40,000
17,064
18,124 30,000
15,073 20,000
22,465
10,000
12,726
9,511 -
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
22,288
22,394
22,501
MODERATE
22,608 35,000
22,716
22,824 30,000
22,933
25,000
23,042
23,152 20,000
23,263
23,374 15,000
23,485 10,000
23,597
23,709 5,000
-
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
15,000
10,000
5,000
23,822
-
23,936 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
24,050
24,165
24,280 PESIMIS
24,396 30,000
24,512
25,000
24,629
24,746
20,000
24,864
24,983 15,000
25,102
25,221 10,000
25,342
25,463 5,000
25,584
25,706 -
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
25,828
Tahun Bongkar Muat Total Tahun
2005 247,394 14,905 262,299 2005
2006 306,594 11,476 318,070 2006
2007 334,344 12,855 347,199 2007
2008 244,197 10,781 254,978 73.43858 2008
2009 223,043 10,895 233,938 2009
2010 205,167 14,977 220,144 2010
2011 235,500 10,612 246,112 2011
2012 252,363 17,064 269,427 2012
2013 265,124 18,124 283,248 2013
2014 250,985 15,073 266,058 2014
2015 241,976 22,465 264,441 2015
2016 211,998 12,726 224,724 2016
2017 216,651 9,511 226,162 2017
1 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
2018 220,214 22,288 242,502 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
33 35 37 39 41 43 45 2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
33 35 37 39 41 43 45
33 35 37 39 41 43 45
33 35 37 39 41 43 45
33 35 37 39 41 43 45
33 35 37 39 41 43 45
R optimis R moderat R Pesimis
262,299 262,299 262,299
318,070 318,070 318,070
347,199 347,199 347,199
254,978 254,978 254,978
233,938 233,938 233,938
220,144 220,144 220,144
246,112 246,112 246,112
269,427 269,427 269,427
283,248 283,248 283,248
266,058 266,058 266,058
264,441 264,441 264,441
224,724 224,724 224,724
226,162 226,162 226,162
242,502 242,502 242,502
251,249 258,240 242,778
376,850 272,073 243,054
570,711 286,688 243,331
870,144 302,130 243,608
1,332,865 318,445 243,886
2,048,153 335,684 244,165
3,154,107 353,900 244,445
4,864,346 373,148 244,725
7,509,306 393,489 245,006
11,600,119 414,984 245,287
17,927,436 437,700 245,569
27,714,268 461,706 245,852
42,852,438 487,076 246,135
66,268,309 513,890 246,419
102,488,531 542,228 246,704
158,515,159 572,180 246,989
245,179,328 603,837 247,276
379,235,198 637,297 247,562
586,598,959 672,663 247,850
907,359,110 710,046 248,138
1,403,526,598 749,559 248,427
Bongkar
Tahun
R Variabel Dependen SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI OPTIMIS
Bongkar
Tahun R optimis R moderat
2014 250,985 250,985
2015 241,976 241,976
2016 211,998 211,998
2017 216,651 216,651
2018 220,214 220,214
2019 997,056 367,299
2020 2,085,565 445,483
2021 3,769,325 528,159
2022 6,373,852 615,585
2023 10,402,668 708,034
2024 16,634,648 805,796
2025 26,274,595 909,174
2026 41,186,161 1,018,492
2027 64,252,138 1,134,091
2028 99,931,777 1,256,332
2029 155,122,878 1,385,596
2030 240,495,310 1,522,288
2031 372,553,776 1,666,833
2032 576,828,603 1,819,684
2033 892,811,407 1,981,316
2034 1,381,589,855 2,152,236
2035 2,137,657,489 2,332,976
2036 3,307,181,780 2,524,101
2037 5,116,262,083 2,726,207
2038 7,914,640,512 2,939,926
2039 12,243,316,146 3,165,924
MUAT
Tahun
Variabel Dependen SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI OPTIMIS
2005 14,905 -
2006 11,476 -
2007 12,855 -
2008 10,781 -
2009 10,895 -
2010 14,977 -
2011 10,612 -
2012 17,064 -
2013 18,124 -
2014 15,073 651,835
2015 22,465 707,656
2016 12,726 773,000
2017 9,511 815,748
2018 22,288 857,951
2019 25,282 888,897
2020 25,572 920,960
2021 25,874 954,179
2022 26,186 988,597
2023 26,509 1,024,256
2024 26,844 1,061,201
2025 27,191 1,099,479
2026 27,550 1,139,137
2027 27,923 1,180,226
2028 28,309 1,222,798
2029 28,708 1,266,904
2030 29,123 1,312,602
2031 29,552 1,359,948
2032 29,997 1,409,002
2033 30,457 1,459,825
2034 30,935 1,512,481
2035 31,429 1,567,037
2036 31,942 1,623,560
2037 32,473 1,682,122
2038 33,023 1,742,797
2039 33,592 1,805,660
MUAT
Tahun R optimis R moderat
2014 15,073 15,073
2015 22,465 22,465
2016 12,726 12,726
2017 9,511 9,511
2018 22,288 22,288
2019 25,282 25,102
2020 25,572 25,204
2021 25,874 25,308
2022 26,186 25,412
2023 26,509 25,518
2024 26,844 25,626
2025 27,191 25,735
2026 27,550 25,845
2027 27,923 25,957
2028 28,309 26,070
2029 28,708 26,185
2030 29,123 26,301
2031 29,552 26,419
2032 29,997 26,538
2033 30,457 26,659
2034 30,935 26,781
2035 31,429 26,905
2036 31,942 27,030
2037 32,473 27,157
2038 33,023 27,286
2039 33,592 27,417
Variabel Independen
SEKTOR PERDAGANGAN JASA
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI MODERAT SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI PESIMIS (Kab)
651,835 651,835 2,288,862
707,656 707,656 2,579,408
773,000 773,000 2,771,105
815,748 815,748 3,000,908
857,951 857,951 3,179,995
907,246 865,826 3,252,499
959,373 873,774 3,326,656
1,014,495 881,795 3,402,504
1,072,785 889,890 3,480,081
1,134,423 898,059 3,559,427
1,199,603 906,303 3,640,581
1,268,528 914,623 3,723,587
1,341,414 923,019 3,808,484
1,418,487 931,492 3,895,318
1,499,988 940,042 3,984,131
1,586,172 948,672 4,074,969
1,677,309 957,380 4,167,879
1,773,681 966,169 4,262,906
1,875,591 975,038 4,360,101
1,983,356 983,988 4,459,511
2,097,313 993,021 4,561,188
2,217,817 1,002,137 4,665,183
2,345,245 1,011,336 4,771,549
2,479,995 1,020,620 4,880,340
2,622,487 1,029,989 4,991,612
2,773,166 1,039,444 5,105,421
2,932,503 1,048,986 5,221,824
3,100,995 1,058,615 5,340,882
3,279,167 1,068,333 5,462,654
3,467,577 1,078,140 5,587,203
3,666,812 1,088,037 5,714,591
3,877,495 1,098,025 5,844,884
4,100,283 1,108,104 5,978,147
4,335,871 1,118,276 6,114,449
4,584,995 1,128,542 6,253,858
4,848,434 1,138,901 6,396,446
5,127,008 1,149,356 6,542,285
R pesimis
250,985
241,976
211,998
216,651
220,214
305,176
317,097
329,128
341,268
353,521
365,885
378,364
390,956
403,665
416,490
429,433
442,494
455,676
468,978
482,403
495,951
509,623
523,421
537,345
551,397
565,578
Variabel Independen
SEKTOR PERDAGANGAN JASA
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI MODERAT SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI PESIMIS (Kab)
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
651,835 651,835
707,656 707,656
773,000 773,000
815,748 815,748
857,951 857,951
869,071 862,041
880,336 866,150
891,747 870,279
903,306 874,427
915,014 878,596
926,875 882,784
938,889 886,992
951,059 891,221
963,386 895,469
975,874 899,738
988,523 904,027
1,001,336 908,336
1,014,315 912,666
1,027,463 917,017
1,040,780 921,389
1,054,271 925,781
1,067,936 930,194
1,081,779 934,628
1,095,801 939,084
1,110,004 943,560
1,124,392 948,058
R optimis
15,073
22,465
12,726
9,511
22,288
25,038
25,076
25,113
25,151
25,188
25,226
25,264
25,303
25,341
25,380
25,419
25,458
25,497
25,537
25,576
25,616
25,656
25,696
25,737
25,777
25,818
SEKTOR KONSTRUKSI SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI INDUSTRI PENGOLAHAN SEKTOR KONSTRUKSI
(Kab) (Prov) (Prov) (Prov)
3,903,062 3,717,755.53 53,173,703 23,802,364
4,203,463 3,939,817.08 56,338,041 25,954,827
4,404,142 4,161,122.80 59,498,187 26,871,948
4,531,323 4,681,698.10 62,458,862 29,042,763
4,482,491 4,681,698.08 62,458,862 29,042,763
4,584,692
4,689,223
4,796,137
4,905,489
5,017,334
5,131,729
5,248,733
5,368,404
5,490,803
5,615,994
5,744,038
5,875,003
6,008,953
6,145,957
6,286,085
6,429,407
6,575,998
6,725,930
6,879,282
7,036,129
7,196,553
7,360,634
7,528,457
7,700,106
7,875,668
8,055,233
8,238,893
8,426,739
8,618,869
8,815,379
9,016,370
9,221,943
SEKTOR KONSTRUKSI
(Kab)
Optimis Moderat Pesimis
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.997227
R Square 0.994462
Adjusted R Square 0.97785
Standard Error 20167.95
Observations 5
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 7.3E+10 2.43E+10 59.86139 0.094661
Residual 1 4.07E+08 4.07E+08
Total 4 7.35E+10
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept -2103571 301332.2 -6.980904 0.090578 -5932360
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI (Kab) 8.1107 1.414724 5.733063 0.109938 -9.865069
SEKTOR PERDAGANGAN JASA (Kab) -1.688544 0.326303 -5.174778 0.121526 -5.834612
SEKTOR KONSTRUKSI (Kab) 0.173044 0.117403 1.473929 0.379503 -1.318704
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.991177
R Square 0.982432
Adjusted R Square 0.964864
Standard Error 25400.67
Observations 5
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 7.22E+10 3.61E+10 55.92234 0.017568
Residual 2 1.29E+09 6.45E+08
Total 4 7.35E+10
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept -1739515 217392.3 -8.001733 0.015262 -2674878
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI (Kab) 8.566267 1.73874 4.926709 0.038816 1.085072
SEKTOR PERDAGANGAN JASA (Kab) -1.676213 0.410829 -4.080072 0.055149 -3.443868
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.914443
R Square 0.836207
Adjusted R Square 0.781609
Standard Error 63326.99
Observations 5
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 6.14E+10 6.14E+10 15.31578 0.029652
Residual 3 1.2E+10 4.01E+09
Total 4 7.35E+10
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept -993444 293115.6 -3.389257 0.042798 -1926269
SEKTOR TRANSPORTASI (Kab) 1.499862 0.38325 3.913538 0.029652 0.280191
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.015197
R Square 0.000231
Adjusted R Square -0.333025
Standard Error 6686.766
Observations 5
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 30987.31 30987.31 0.000693 0.980651
Residual 3 1.34E+08 44712838
Total 4 1.34E+08
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 17223.57 30950.39 0.55649 0.616692 -81274.4
X Variable 1 0.009065 0.040468 -0.026325 0.980651 -0.129852
Tahun
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Significance F 2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0% 2037
1725217 -5932360 1725217 2038
26.08647 -9.865069 26.08647 2039
2.457525 -5.834612 2.457525
1.664791 -1.318704 1.664791
Significance F
Significance F
Significance F
Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
115721.5 -81274.4 115721.5
0.127721 -0.129852 0.127721
R optimis R moderat R optimis
Tahun
Variabel Dependen
2014 250,985
8.56 2015 241,976
9.23 2016 211,998
5.53 2017 216,651
5.17 2018 220,214
0.07
TAHAP 2
Tahun Tahun ke (X)
2014 1
2015 2
2016 3
2017 4
2018 5
Jumlah 15
Rata-rata
Polynomial
Sektor Sektor Pertahun T
Pertanian, Kehutanan,& Perikanan / Agriculture,Forestry,
Fishing 27,305 1
Pertambangan & Penggalian/ Mining and Quarrying (321,536) 1
Industri Pengolahan/ Manufacturing Industries 199,668 1
Pengadaan Listrik, & Gas/ Electricity, & Gas 2,588 1
Pengadaan Air, Pengelolaan Sampah, limbah & Daur ulang/
Water Supply , Waste Management , Waste & Recycling
2,944 1
Bangunan/Construction 1,489,790 1
Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran; Reparasi Mobil dan Sepeda
Motor / Wholesale and Retail Trade ; Repair Cars and
Motorcycles 1,177,423 1
Transportasi & Pergudangan/ Transport & Warehousing 294,732 1
Penyediaan Akomodasi & Makan Minum/ Provision of
accommodation and Eat Drink 58,928 1
Informasi & Komunikasi/ Information and Communication
178,478 1
Jasa Keuangan & Asuransi/ Financial Services and Insurance
137,538 1
Real Estate/ Real estate 141,996 1
Jasa Perusahaan/ Company services 771 1
Administrasi Pemerintahan, Pertahanan dan Jaminan Sosial
Wajib/ Administration , Defence and Compulsory Social Security
382,956 1
Jasa Pendidikan/Educational services 164,423 1
Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial/ Health Services and Social
Activities 95,746 1
Jasa lainnya/ other services 31,042 1
Jumlah 4,064.79
LAJU PERTUMBUHAN
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282
L Pol ynomi al Bunga Berganda Ari tmatik
Variabel Independen
SEKTOR SEKTOR
SEKTOR TRANSPORTAS (Y) PERDAGANGAN JASA KONSTRUKSI
2017 - 2011
27,305
(321,536)
199,668
2,588
2,944
1,489,790
1,177,423
294,732
58,928
178,478
137,538
141,996
771
382,956
164,423
95,746
31,042
4,064,791
Bunga Berganda
608,138
651,469
697,888
747,615
800,885
LAJU PERTUMBUHAN
7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435
l ynomi al Bunga Berganda Ari tmatika
R%
Regresi Linear L Polynomial Bunga Berganda Aritmatika
Tahun
Variabel Dependen
2014 15,073
8.56 2015 22,465
9.23 2016 12,726
5.53 2017 9,511
5.17 2018 22,288
0.07
TAHAP 2
Tahun Tahun ke (X)
2014 1
2015 2
2016 3
2017 4
2018 5
Jumlah 15
Rata-rata
Polynomial
Sektor Sektor Pertahun T
Pertanian, Kehutanan,& Perikanan / Agriculture,Forestry, Fishing 27,305 1
Pertambangan & Penggalian/ Mining and Quarrying (321,536) 1
Industri Pengolahan/ Manufacturing Industries 199,668 1
Pengadaan Listrik, & Gas/ Electricity, & Gas 2,588 1
Pengadaan Air, Pengelolaan Sampah, limbah & Daur ulang/ Water Supply , Waste
Management , Waste & Recycling 2,944 1
Bangunan/Construction 1,489,790 1
Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran; Reparasi Mobil dan Sepeda Motor / Wholesale
and Retail Trade ; Repair Cars and Motorcycles 1,177,423 1
Transportasi & Pergudangan/ Transport & Warehousing 294,732 1
Penyediaan Akomodasi & Makan Minum/ Provision of accommodation and Eat
Drink 58,928 1
Informasi & Komunikasi/ Information and Communication 178,478 1
Jasa Keuangan & Asuransi/ Financial Services and Insurance 137,538 1
Real Estate/ Real estate 141,996 1
Jasa Perusahaan/ Company services 771 1
Administrasi Pemerintahan, Pertahanan dan Jaminan Sosial Wajib/
Administration , Defence and Compulsory Social Security 382,956 1
Jasa Pendidikan/Educational services 164,423 1
Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial/ Health Services and Social Activities 95,746 1
Jasa lainnya/ other services 31,042 1
Jumlah 4,064.79
SEKTOR SEKTOR
SEKTOR TRANSPORTAS (Y) PERDAGANGAN JASA KONSTRUKSI
2017 - 2011
27,305
(321,536)
199,668
2,588
2,944
1,489,790
1,177,423
294,732
58,928
178,478
137,538
141,996
771
382,956
164,423
95,746
31,042
4,064,791
Bunga Berganda
608,138
651,469
697,888
747,615
800,885
Tahun
Variabel Dependen
2014 15,073
8.56 2015 22,465
9.23 2016 12,726
5.53 2017 9,511
5.17 2018 22,288
0.07
TAHAP 2
Tahun Tahun ke (X)
2014 1
2015 2
2016 3
2017 4
2018 5
Jumlah 15
Rata-rata
Polynomial
Sektor Sektor Pertahun T
Pertanian, Kehutanan,& Perikanan / Agriculture,Forestry, Fishing 27,305 1
Pertambangan & Penggalian/ Mining and Quarrying (321,536) 1
Industri Pengolahan/ Manufacturing Industries 199,668 1
Pengadaan Listrik, & Gas/ Electricity, & Gas 2,588 1
Pengadaan Air, Pengelolaan Sampah, limbah & Daur ulang/ Water Supply , Waste
Management , Waste & Recycling 2,944 1
Bangunan/Construction 1,489,790 1
Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran; Reparasi Mobil dan Sepeda Motor / Wholesale
and Retail Trade ; Repair Cars and Motorcycles 1,177,423 1
Transportasi & Pergudangan/ Transport & Warehousing 294,732 1
Penyediaan Akomodasi & Makan Minum/ Provision of accommodation and Eat
Drink 58,928 1
Informasi & Komunikasi/ Information and Communication 178,478 1
Jasa Keuangan & Asuransi/ Financial Services and Insurance 137,538 1
Real Estate/ Real estate 141,996 1
Jasa Perusahaan/ Company services 771 1
Administrasi Pemerintahan, Pertahanan dan Jaminan Sosial Wajib/
Administration , Defence and Compulsory Social Security 382,956 1
Jasa Pendidikan/Educational services 164,423 1
Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial/ Health Services and Social Activities 95,746 1
Jasa lainnya/ other services 31,042 1
Jumlah 4,064.79
SEKTOR SEKTOR
SEKTOR TRANSPORTAS (Y) PERDAGANGAN JASA KONSTRUKSI
2017 - 2011
27,305
(321,536)
199,668
2,588
2,944
1,489,790
1,177,423
294,732
58,928
178,478
137,538
141,996
771
382,956
164,423
95,746
31,042
4,064,791
Bunga Berganda
15,798
16,924
18,130
19,422
20,806
Tahun
Variabel Dependen
2014 250,985
(3.59) 2015 241,976
(12.39) 2016 211,998
2.19 2017 216,651
1.64 2018 220,214
(0.03)
TAHAP 2
Tahun Tahun ke (X)
2014 1
2015 2
2016 3
2017 4
2018 5
Jumlah 15
Rata-rata
Polynomial
Sektor Sektor Pertahun T
Pertanian, Kehutanan,& Perikanan / Agriculture,Forestry,
Fishing 27,305 1
Pertambangan & Penggalian/ Mining and Quarrying (321,536) 1
Industri Pengolahan/ Manufacturing Industries 199,668 1
Pengadaan Listrik, & Gas/ Electricity, & Gas 2,588 1
Pengadaan Air, Pengelolaan Sampah, limbah & Daur ulang/
Water Supply , Waste Management , Waste & Recycling
2,944 1
Bangunan/Construction 1,489,790 1
Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran; Reparasi Mobil dan Sepeda
Motor / Wholesale and Retail Trade ; Repair Cars and
Motorcycles 1,177,423 1
Transportasi & Pergudangan/ Transport & Warehousing 294,732 1
Penyediaan Akomodasi & Makan Minum/ Provision of
accommodation and Eat Drink 58,928 1
Informasi & Komunikasi/ Information and Communication
178,478 1
Jasa Keuangan & Asuransi/ Financial Services and Insurance
137,538 1
Real Estate/ Real estate 141,996 1
Jasa Perusahaan/ Company services 771 1
Administrasi Pemerintahan, Pertahanan dan Jaminan Sosial
Wajib/ Administration , Defence and Compulsory Social Security
382,956 1
Jasa Pendidikan/Educational services 164,423 1
Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial/ Health Services and Social
Activities 95,746 1
Jasa lainnya/ other services 31,042 1
Jumlah 4,064.79
LAJU PERTUMBUHAN
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627
L Pol ynomi a l Bunga Berganda Ari tma
Variabel Independen
SEKTOR SEKTOR
SEKTOR TRANSPORTAS (Y) PERDAGANGAN JASA KONSTRUKSI
2017 - 2011
27,305
(321,536)
199,668
2,588
2,944
1,489,790
1,177,423
294,732
58,928
178,478
137,538
141,996
771
382,956
164,423
95,746
31,042
4,064,791
Bunga Berganda
256,900
249,104
241,544
234,214
227,106
LAJU PERTUMBUHAN
8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435
l ynomi a l Bunga Berganda Ari tmatika
R%
Regresi Linear L Polynomial Bunga Berganda Aritmatika
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
2014 2015 2016 201
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
2014 2015 2016 201
Tahun Bongkar Muat Total
2014 250,985 15,073 266,058
2015 241,976 22,465 264,441
2016 211,998 12,726 224,724
2017 216,651 9,511 226,162
2018 220,214 22,288 242,502
2019 367,299 25,102 392,401
2020 445,483 25,204 470,687
2021 528,159 25,308 553,466
2022 615,585 25,412 640,997
2023 708,034 25,518 733,553
2024 805,796 25,626 831,422
2025 909,174 25,735 934,909
2026 1,018,492 25,845 1,044,337
2027 1,134,091 25,957 1,160,048
2028 1,256,332 26,070 1,282,402
2029 1,385,596 26,185 1,411,781
2030 1,522,288 26,301 1,548,589
2031 1,666,833 26,419 1,693,252
2032 1,819,684 26,538 1,846,221
2033 1,981,316 26,659 2,007,975
2034 2,152,236 26,781 2,179,017
2035 2,332,976 26,905 2,359,881
2036 2,524,101 27,030 2,551,131
2037 2,726,207 27,157 2,753,364
2038 2,939,926 27,286 2,967,212
2039 3,165,924 27,417 3,193,340
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 20
EKSISTING PROYEKSI
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 20
EKSISTING PROYEKSI
Asumsi Perhari
B/M Barang Ton 470,687 ton 5000
Produktivitas Crane (54/1) Ton/Jam 54 crane ton/jam 54
Waktu Operasional Pelabuhan jam 10 oprasional 8
Waktu Tambat Kapal hari 5 Waktu tambat 7
87,164
8 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039
8 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039
Manual Model (B/M)
Dasar Perhitungan Tahun R optimis R moderat R Pesimis
R Pake B/M 2014 266,058 266,058 266,058
2015 264,441 264,441 264,441
2016 224,724 224,724 224,724
2017 226,162 226,162 226,162
2018 242,502 242,502 242,502
2019 251,249 258,240 242,778
2020 376,850 272,073 243,054
2021 570,711 286,688 243,331
2022 870,144 302,130 243,608
2023 1,332,865 318,445 243,886
2024 2,048,153 335,684 244,165
2025 3,154,107 353,900 244,445
2026 4,864,346 373,148 244,725
2027 7,509,306 393,489 245,006
2028 11,600,119 414,984 245,287
2029 17,927,436 437,700 245,569
2030 27,714,268 461,706 245,852
2031 42,852,438 487,076 246,135
2032 66,268,309 513,890 246,419
2033 102,488,531 542,228 246,704
2034 158,515,159 572,180 246,989
2035 245,179,328 603,837 247,276
2036 379,235,198 637,297 247,562
2037 586,598,959 672,663 247,850
2038 907,359,110 710,046 248,138
2039 ### 749,559 248,427
Regresion Model (B/M)
Dasar Perhitungan Tahun R optimis R moderat R Pesimis
R Pake B/M 2014 266,058 266,058 266,058
2015 264,441 264,441 264,441
2016 224,724 224,724 224,724
2017 226,162 226,162 226,162
2018 242,502 242,502 242,502
2019 1,022,338 392,401 330,214
2020 2,111,137 470,687 342,173
2021 3,795,198 553,466 354,241
2022 6,400,037 640,997 366,419
2023 10,429,177 733,553 378,709
2024 16,661,492 831,422 391,112
2025 26,301,786 934,909 403,628
2026 41,213,712 1,044,337 416,259
2027 64,280,061 1,160,048 429,006
2028 99,960,086 1,282,402 441,870
2029 155,151,586 1,411,781 454,852
2030 240,524,432 1,548,589 467,952
2031 372,583,328 1,693,252 481,173
2032 576,858,599 1,846,221 494,515
2033 892,841,864 2,007,975 507,979
2034 1,381,620,790 2,179,017 521,567
2035 2,137,688,919 2,359,881 535,279
2036 3,307,213,721 2,551,131 549,117
2037 5,116,294,556 2,753,364 563,082
2038 7,914,673,535 2,967,212 577,175
2039 ### 3,193,340 591,397
TANPA SPLIT SPLIT MOCOH
Tahun Bongkar Muat Total Tahun Bongkar Muat
2007 342,964 15,532 358,496 EKSISTING 2007 342,964 15,532
2008 271,592 38,176 309,768 2008 271,592 38,176
2009 253,532 22,238 275,770 2009 253,532 22,238
2010 211,037 23,878 234,915 2010 211,037 23,878
2011 242,183 21,656 263,839 2011 242,183 21,656
2012 260,107 16,620 276,726 2012 260,107 16,620
2013 225,109 19,641 244,750 2013 225,109 19,641
2014 250,985 15,073 266,058 2014 250,985 15,073
2015 241,976 22,465 264,441 2015 241,976 22,465
2016 211,998 12,726 224,724 2016 211,998 12,726
2017 216,651 9,511 226,162 2017 216,651 9,511
2018 220,214 22,288 242,502 2018 220,214 22,288
2019 228,157 23,092 251,249 2019 228,157 23,092
2020 352,925 23,925 376,850 2020 335,279 22,729
2021 545,923 24,788 570,711 2021 518,627 23,548
2022 844,462 25,682 870,144 2022 802,239 24,398
2023 1,306,257 26,608 1,332,865 2023 1,240,944 25,278
2024 2,020,585 27,568 2,048,153 2024 1,919,556 26,190
2025 3,125,545 28,562 3,154,107 2025 2,969,268 27,134
2026 4,834,754 29,593 4,864,346 2026 4,593,016 28,113
2027 7,478,645 30,660 7,509,306 2027 7,104,713 29,127
2028 11,568,353 31,766 11,600,119 2028 10,989,936 30,178
2029 17,894,524 32,912 17,927,436 2029 16,999,797 31,266
2030 27,680,169 34,099 27,714,268 2030 26,296,161 32,394
2031 42,817,109 35,329 42,852,438 2031 40,676,253 33,563
2032 66,231,706 36,603 66,268,309 2032 62,920,120 34,773
2033 ### 37,924 ### 2033 97,328,077 36,027
2034 ### 39,292 ### 2034 ### 37,327
2035 ### 40,709 ### 2035 ### 38,673
2036 ### 42,177 ### 2036 ### 40,068
2037 ### 43,698 ### 2037 ### 41,514
2038 ### 45,275 ### 2038 ### 43,011
2039 ### 46,908 ### 2039 ### 44,562
Total B/M Barang Ton 376,850
358,496 EKSISTING Produktivitas Crane (54/1) Ton/Jam 54
309,768 Waktu Operasional Pelabuhan jam 10
275,770 Waktu Tambat Kapal hari 5
234,915
263,839
276,726
244,750
266,058 69,787
264,441
224,724
226,162
242,502
251,249
358,008
542,175
826,636
1,266,222
1,945,746
2,996,402
4,621,129
7,133,840
11,020,113
17,031,064
26,328,555
40,709,816
62,954,893
97,364,105
150,589,401
232,920,362
360,273,438
557,269,011
861,991,154
1,333,350,268
Asumsi Perhari
ton ###
crane ton/jam 25
oprasional 24
Waktu tambat 1
DERMAGA
Keterangan
SPBA KIJANG
GENERAL CARGO PETIKEMAS
TAHUN BONGKAR MUAT JUMLAH BONGKAR MUAT JUMLAH
2012 260,107 16,620 276,726 3,890 3,450 7,340
2013 225,109 19,641 244,750 3,968 3,519 7,487
2014 250,985 15,073 266,058 3,295 3,267 6,562
2015 241,976 22,465 264,441 5,317 6,060 11,377
2016 211,998 12,726 224,724 7,272 5,871 13,143
2017 216,651 9,511 226,162 8,076 7,579 15,655
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PELABUHAN KIJANG PELABUHAN SPBA
KORELASI CARGO X PETIKEMAS
Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
1.49 Column 2 -0.95295 1
(11.25)
(14.40)
(31.04)
(58.33)
(22.71)
SPBA KIJANG
GENERAL CARGO PETIKEMAS
TAHUN BONGKAR MUAT JUMLAH BONGKAR MUAT JUMLAH
2012 260,107 16,620 276,726 3,890 3,450 7,340
2013 225,109 19,641 244,750 3,968 3,519 7,487
2014 250,985 15,073 266,058 3,295 3,267 6,562
2015 241,976 22,465 264,441 5,317 6,060 11,377
2016 211,998 12,726 224,724 7,272 5,871 13,143
2017 216,651 9,511 226,162 8,076 7,579 15,655
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PELABUHAN KIJANG PELABUHAN SPBA
Asumsi 1 BOX Cargo Total KORELASI CARGO X PETIKEMAS
(Ton x
18 Petikemas) Column 1
132,120 529,604 Column 1 1
134,766 538,166 1.49 Column 2 -0.95295
118,116 476,133 (11.25)
204,786 511,256 (14.40)
236,574 447,910 (31.04)
281,790 369,851 (58.33)
(22.71)
KORELA
df
Regression 1
Residual 4
Total 5
KORELA
df
Regression 1
Residual 4
Total 5
KORELASI
df
Regression 1
Residual 4
Total 5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
KORELA
df
Regression 1
Residual 4
Total 5
ASI CARGO X PETIKEMAS
Column 2
1
I CARGO SPBA X CARGO KJ
Column 2
1
CARGO SPBA X CARGO KJ X PETIKEMAS KJ
Column 2 Column 3
1
-0.7576252538 1
1,883,360
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
492,606
400,000
200,000
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
PROYEKSI RIP 2018 GAP DEMAND PROYEKSI DEMAND 2014 PROYEKSI RIP 2018
PERBANDINGAN DEMAND RIP 2014 DAN 2018 (MIDLE DEMAND)
1403526598.15819
2,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
KEKURANGAN = M3 TIDAK DIHITUNG DAN LOAD FACTOR HANYA SATU TAHUN
Persentase Keterangan
56.49 Ton Kapal >500 GT
43.51 Ton Kapal <500 GT
0
0 20 021 022 023 024 025 026 027 028 029 030 031 032 033 034 035 036 037 038 039
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Kunjungan Kapal
Persentase Keterangan Load Faktor Keterangan
52.4 Kunjungan Kapal >500 GT 85 Kunjungan Kapal >500 GT
47.6 Kunjungan Kapal <500 GT 123 Kunjungan Kapal <500 GT
Persentase Keterangan
56.49 Ton Kapal >500 GT
43.51 Ton Kapal <500 GT
Throughput (ton)
Tahun Total Kargo (ton)
T0 T1
2014 266,058 199,544 66,515
2015 264,441 198,331 66,110
2016 224,724 168,543 56,181
2017 226,162 169,622 56,541
2018 242,502 181,877 60,626
2019 392,401 294,301 98,100
2020 204,806 153,605 51,202
2021 240,825 180,619 60,206
2022 278,912 209,184 69,728
2023 319,185 239,389 79,796
2024 361,770 271,327 90,442
2025 406,799 305,099 101,700
2026 454,414 340,810 113,603
2027 504,762 378,572 126,191
2028 558,001 418,501 139,500
2029 614,297 460,723 153,574
2030 673,825 505,369 168,456
2031 736,771 552,578 184,193
2032 803,331 602,498 200,833
2033 873,714 655,285 218,428
2034 948,138 711,103 237,034
2035 1,026,836 770,127 256,709
2036 1,110,053 832,540 277,513
2037 1,198,049 898,537 299,512
2038 1,291,099 968,324 322,775
2039 1,389,492 1,042,119 347,373
Throughput (ton) A Lapangan A Gudang Sor %
T2 T3 (m2) (m2) 850
13,303 53,212 972 648 19
13,222 52,888 966 644 19
11,236 44,945 821 547 16
11,308 45,232 826 551 16
12,125 48,500 886 591 18
19,620 78,480 1,434 956 29
10,240 40,961 748 499 15
12,041 48,165 880 587 18
13,946 55,782 1,019 679 20
15,959 63,837 1,166 777 23
18,088 72,354 1,322 881 26
20,340 81,360 1,486 991 30
22,721 90,883 1,660 1,107 33
25,238 100,952 1,844 1,229 37
27,900 111,600 2,038 1,359 41
30,715 122,859 2,244 1,496 45
33,691 134,765 2,462 1,641 49
36,839 147,354 2,692 1,794 54
40,167 160,666 2,935 1,956 58
43,686 174,743 3,192 2,128 64
47,407 189,628 3,464 2,309 69
51,342 205,367 3,751 2,501 75
55,503 222,011 4,055 2,703 81
59,902 239,610 4,377 2,918 87
64,555 258,220 4,717 3,144 94
69,475 277,898 5,076 3,384 101
Keterangan
To 75% angkutan Langsung
T1 25% angkutan tertahan dipelabuhan
T2 20% angkutan disimpan digudang
T3 80% angkutan disimpan digudang
Throughput (ton)
Tahun Total Kargo (ton)
T0 T1
2014 - - -
2015 - - -
2016 - - -
2017 - - -
2018 242,502 181,877 60,626
2019 251,249 188,437 62,812
2020 376,850 282,638 94,213
2021 570,711 428,033 142,678
2022 870,144 652,608 217,536
2023 1,332,865 999,649 333,216
2024 2,048,153 1,536,115 512,038
2025 3,154,107 2,365,581 788,527
2026 4,864,346 3,648,260 1,216,087
2027 7,509,306 5,631,979 1,877,326
2028 11,600,119 8,700,089 2,900,030
2029 17,927,436 13,445,577 4,481,859
2030 27,714,268 20,785,701 6,928,567
2031 42,852,438 32,139,328 10,713,109
2032 66,268,309 49,701,232 16,567,077
2033 102,488,531 76,866,398 25,622,133
2034 158,515,159 ### 39,628,790
2035 245,179,328 ### 61,294,832
2036 379,235,198 ### 94,808,799
2037 586,598,959 ### ###
2038 907,359,110 ### ###
2039 1,403,526,598 ### ###
Throughput (ton) A Lapangan A Gudang Sor % Sor % Sor %
T2 T3 (m2) (m2) 850 3419046 4050
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
12,125 48,500 886 591 69 0 15
12,562 50,250 918 612 72 0 15
18,843 75,370 1,377 918 108 0 23
28,536 114,142 2,085 1,390 164 0 34
43,507 174,029 3,179 2,119 249 0 52
66,643 266,573 4,869 3,246 382 0 80
102,408 409,631 7,482 4,988 587 0 123
157,705 630,821 11,522 7,682 904 0 190
243,217 972,869 17,770 11,847 1,394 0 293
375,465 1,501,861 27,433 18,288 2,152 1 452
580,006 2,320,024 42,377 28,251 3,324 1 698
896,372 3,585,487 65,492 43,661 5,137 1 1,078
1,385,713 5,542,854 101,244 67,496 7,941 2 1,667
2,142,622 8,570,488 156,546 104,364 12,278 3 2,577
3,313,415 13,253,662 242,088 161,392 18,987 5 3,985
5,124,427 20,497,706 374,406 249,604 29,365 7 6,163
7,925,758 31,703,032 579,080 386,053 45,418 11 9,532
### 49,035,866 895,677 597,118 70,249 17 14,744
### 75,847,040 1,385,403 923,602 108,659 27 22,805
### ### 2,142,934 1,428,623 168,073 42 35,275
### ### 3,314,720 2,209,813 259,978 65 54,563
### ### 5,127,294 3,418,196 402,141 100 84,400
Volume Barang
T0
Angkutan
75% Langsung
T2
Disimpan di
20% Lapangan
Penumpukan
Trt = 10
Sf = 0.67 47.6
Sth Gudang = 3 52.4
Sth Lapangan = 0.5
BS = 0.5
Throughput (ton)
Tahun Total Kargo (ton)
T0 T1
2014 266,058 199,544 66,515
2015 264,441 198,331 66,110
2016 224,724 168,543 56,181
2017 226,162 169,622 56,541
2018 242,502 181,877 60,626
Pendek 2019 392,401 294,301 98,100
2020 204,806 153,605 51,202
2021 240,825 180,619 60,206
2022 278,912 209,184 69,728
2023 319,185 239,389 79,796
2024 361,770 271,327 90,442
2025 406,799 305,099 101,700
2026 454,414 340,810 113,603
2027 504,762 378,572 126,191
Menengah 2028 558,001 418,501 139,500
2029 614,297 460,723 153,574
2030 673,825 505,369 168,456
2031 736,771 552,578 184,193
2032 803,331 602,498 200,833
2033 873,714 655,285 218,428
2034 948,138 711,103 237,034
2035 1,026,836 770,127 256,709
2036 1,110,053 832,540 277,513
2037 1,198,049 898,537 299,512
Panjang 2038 1,291,099 968,324 322,775
2039 1,389,492 1,042,119 347,373
Sebelum Dilakukan
Tahun Total Kargo (ton) Kebuthan Luasan Gudang
Penambahan kapasitas
2014 266,058 76 648
2015 264,441 76 644
2016 224,724 64 547
2017 226,162 65 551
2018 242,502 69 591
2019 392,401 101 956
2020 204,806 48 499
2021 240,825 53 587
2022 278,912 57 679
2023 319,185 62 777
2024 361,770 67 881
2025 406,799 72 991
2026 454,414 77 1107
2027 504,762 82 1229
2028 558,001 88 1359
2029 614,297 93 1496
2030 673,825 99 1641
2031 736,771 105 1794
2032 803,331 111 1956
2033 873,714 117 2128
2034 948,138 123 2309
2035 1,026,836 129 2501
2036 1,110,053 136 2703
2037 1,198,049 143 2918
2038 1,291,099 150 3144
2039 1,389,492 157 3384
T1
Tertahan di
25% Pelabuhan
T3
Disimpan di
80% Gudang
Setelah Dilakukan
Penambahan kapasitas
26
26
22
22
24
34
16
18
20
21
23
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
49
51
53
(𝑇2 𝑥 𝑇𝑟𝑇 𝑥 𝑆𝑓)/(365 𝑥 𝑆𝑡ℎ 𝑥 (1−𝐵𝑆))
Volume Barang
T0
Angkutan
75% Langsung
T2
Trt = 10
Sf = 0.67 47.6
Sth Gudang = 3 52.4
Sth Lapangan = 0.5
BS = 0.5
2014 -
2015 -
2016 -
2017 -
2018 242,502 69 591
2019 251,249 72 612
2020 376,850 108 918
2021 570,711 164 1390
2022 870,144 249 2119
2023 1,332,865 382 3246
2024 2,048,153 587 4988
2025 3,154,107 904 7682
2026 4,864,346 1394 11847
2027 7,509,306 2152 18288
2028 11,600,119 3324 28251
2029 17,927,436 5137 43661
2030 27,714,268 7941 67496
2031 42,852,438 12278 104364
2032 66,268,309 18987 161392
2033 102,488,531 29365 249604
2034 158,515,159 45418 386053
2035 245,179,328 70249 597118
2036 379,235,198 108659 923602
2037 586,598,959 168073 1428623
2038 907,359,110 259978 2209813
2039 1,403,526,598 402141 3418196
T1
Tertahan di
25% Pelabuhan
T3
Disimpan di
80% Gudang
0 15
0 15
0 23
0 34
0 52
0 80
0 123
0 190
0 293
1 452
1 698
1 1078
2 1667
3 2577
5 3985
7 6163
11 9532
17 14744
27 22805
42 35275
65 54563
100 84400
KEBUTUHAN LAHAN KEBUTUHAN LAHAN
GUDANG (CAD) GUDANG PELINDO
4050 6000
Dengan tunda Ha
Rata-rata karakteristik kapal
Formula pengembangan jangka panjang
1,500
70
11.0
4.5
140.35
140.35
1.00
1.00
1.00
2,000.00
150.00
5B 55.00
1.5 L 105.00
1.8 L 126.00
1.8 L x 1.5 L 13,230
N * Luas 185.68
2L 140.00
A= N π R2 216.05
3L 210.00
A= N π R2 486.11
R=L + 6 D + 30 127.00
A=π R2 50,671
N*A 5.07
R=L + 6 D + 30 127.00
A=π R2 50,670.75
N*A 5.07
N*A 5.07
N*A 2.53
50 % Areal Labuh 2.53
A = Panjang x Lebar 8.29
Lebar Alur 74.00
16 L 1,120.00
Fasilitas Pokok
Dermaga 1 (Type Warf) m 170 x 9
Dermaga 2 (Type Warf) m 50 x 9
Fasilitas General Cargo
Gudang Pelabuhan
Gudang 1 m2 1,160
Gudang 2 m2 850
Fasilitas Curah Cair
Areal Curah Cair m2
Areal Perkantoran
Kantor Pelindo m2 575
Kantor Adminsitrasi + kantin m2 110
Koperasi, UKK dan Kantin m2 240
Fasilita Penunjang
Karantina Pertanian m2 700
Pos Jaga + WC m2 450
Hanggar m2 50
MCK Umum m2 50
Ruang Zenset m2 20
Perkerasan Lapangan Parkir m2 2,132
Ruang Terbuka, Lahan Kosong & Jalan Akses m2 36
Studi Alur Pelayaran Pelabuhan Paket -
Lampu Penerangan Pelabuhan Unit -
Kontainer Penampungan Sampah (6m3) Unit -
Gapura Pelabuhan Unit -
Mobil Crane 20 Ton Unit -
1. Area Perairan :
a. Dermaga 1 (Type Warf) 170 x 9
b. Dermaga 2 (Type Warf) 50 x 9
2. Area Darat :
a. Kantor Pelindo 575
b. Koperasi, UKK dan Kantin 240
c. Karantina Pertanian 700
d. Pos Jaga + WC 450
e. Gudang (1=1.160; Gudang 2=850) 2.01
f. Hanggar 50
g. MCK Umum 50
h. Ruang Zenset 20
i. K Administrasi + Kantin (tidak aktif) 110
j. Lapangan Parkir 2132
Program Pengembangan
Satuan Jangaka Pendek Jangka Menengah Jangka Panjang
(2015 – 2019) (2015 – 2024) (2015 – 2034)
M2 36 36 36
Bongkar Muat
1,292 1 831 0
867 2 603 0
941 3 180 0
330 4 45 0
5 150 0
6 150 0
7 336 0
8 343 0
9
10
11
12
Fasilitas Pelabuhan Satuan Eksisting
Fasilitas Pokok
Dermaga Beton I m 50 x 10
Dermaga Beton II m 50 x 10
Dermaga Beton III m 70 x 9
Dermaga Beton III Tahap III m 40 x 9
Talud Laut m 387
Talud Darat m 494
Tresel Dermaga Cargo 1 m 2x5
Tresel Dermaga Cargo 2 m 2x7
Tresel Dermaga Cargo 3 m 2x7
Tresel Dermaga Cargo 3 Tahap 3 m 7x6
Fasilitas General Cargo
Lapangan Penumpukan m2 2,000
Penataan Gudang 1 m2 1,200
Penataan Gudang 2 m2 850
Fasilitas Curah Cair
Areal Curah Cair m2 3629
Areal Perkantoran
Penataan Kantor Pelindo m2 73.8
Penataan Kantor Tenaga Kerja Bongkar Muat m2 126
Penataan Pos Bea Cukai m2 28
Kantor Karantina m2 700
Fasilita Penunjang
Pos Pintu Masuk m2 30
Lapangan Parkir m2 2000
Penataan kantin m2 54
Mushola m2 16
Rumah Pompa m2 9
Ruang Zenset m2 20
Ruang Terbuka, Lahan Kosong & Jalan Akses m2 36
Instalasi Pengolahan Air Limbah m2 -
Studi Alur Pelayaran Pelabuhan Paket -
Lampu Penerangan Pelabuhan Unit -
Kontainer Penampungan Sampah (6m3) Unit -
Gapura Pelabuhan Unit -
Mobil Crane 20 Ton Unit -
Fasilitas Pelabuhan Eksisting
1. Area Perairan :
a. Dermaga 1 (Type Warf) 170 x 9
b. Dermaga 2 (Type Warf) 50 x 9
2. Area Darat :
a. Kantor Pelindo 575
b. Koperasi, UKK dan Kantin 240
c. Karantina Pertanian 700
d. Pos Jaga + WC 450
e. Gudang (1=1.160; Gudang 2=850) 2.01
f. Hanggar 50
g. MCK Umum 50
h. Ruang Zenset 20
i. K Administrasi + Kantin (tidak aktif) 110
j. Lapangan Parkir 2132
50 x 10 50 x 10 50 x 10
50 x 10 50 x 10 50 x 10
70 x 9 70 x 9 70 x 9
40 x 9 40 x 9 40 x 9
387 387 387
494 494 494
2x5 2x5 2x5
2x7 2x7 2x7
2x7 2x7 2x7
7x6 7x6 7x6
- 7,600 7600
30 30 30
2000 2000 2000
54 54 54
16 16 16
9 9 9
20 20 20
36 36 36
- - 10 x 15
1 1 1
10 15 20
1 1 1
1 1 1
5 5 5
Program Pengembangan
Satuan Jangaka Pendek Jangka Menengah Jangka Panjang
(2015 – 2019) (2015 – 2024) (2015 – 2034)
M2 36 36 36
TURUN
Optimis
PENDUDUK 2.87
PENUMPANG 1.91
2005 597,565
2006 611,070
2007 590,052
2008 608,299
2009 617,756
2010 665,783
2011 863,686
2012 713,407
2013 726,286
2014 664,981 651,835
2015 638,587 707,656
2016 504,767 773,000
2017 485,817 815,748
2018 680,288 857,951
2019 882,543
2020 907,840
2021 933,863
2022 960,631
2023 988,167
2024 1,016,492
2025 1,045,629
2026 1,075,601
2027 1,106,432
2028 1,138,147
2029 1,170,771
2030 1,204,330
2031 1,238,851
2032 1,274,361
2033 1,310,890
2034 1,348,465
2035 1,387,118
2036 1,426,878
2037 1,467,779
2038 1,509,851
2039 1,553,130
Moderat Pesimis
1.91 1.07
1.07 0.77
2005 597,565
2006 611,070
2007 590,052
2008 608,299
2009 617,756
2010 665,783
2011 863,686
2012 713,407
2013 726,286
99,593 196,980 2014 664,981
98,121 199,723 2015 638,587
91,179 202,215 2016 504,767
93,249 204,735 2017 485,817
117,882 207,057 2018 680,288
121,261 212,992 2019
124,737 219,097 2020
128,312 225,378 2021
131,990 231,838 2022
135,774 238,483 2023
139,665 245,319 2024
143,669 252,351 2025
147,787 259,584 2026
152,023 267,025 2027
156,381 274,679 2028
160,863 282,553 2029
165,474 290,652 2030
170,217 298,983 2031
175,097 307,553 2032
180,116 316,369 2033
185,278 325,437 2034
190,589 334,766 2035
196,052 344,361 2036
201,672 354,232 2037
207,453 364,386 2038
213,399 374,831 2039
TRANSPORTASI Σ WISATAWAN Σ JUMLAH PENDUDUK
2005 597,565
2006 611,070
2007 590,052
2008 608,299
2009 617,756
2010 665,783
2011 863,686
2012 713,407
2013 726,286
2014 664,981 651,835 99,593
2015 638,587 707,656 98,121
2016 504,767 773,000 91,179
2017 485,817 815,748 93,249
2018 680,288 857,951 117,882
2019 867,094 119,138
2020 876,334 120,408
2021 885,673 121,691
2022 895,111 122,988
2023 904,650 124,298
2024 914,291 125,623
2025 924,034 126,962
2026 933,881 128,315
2027 943,833 129,682
2028 953,891 131,064
2029 964,056 132,461
2030 974,330 133,872
2031 984,713 135,299
2032 995,207 136,741
2033 1,005,813 138,198
2034 1,016,531 139,671
2035 1,027,364 141,159
2036 1,038,312 142,664
2037 1,049,377 144,184
2038 1,060,560 145,720
2039 1,071,862 147,273
TURUN PDDK
Σ JUMLAH PENDUDUK Tahun R optimis R moderat
2005 548,686 548,686
2006 471,282 471,282
2007 526,586 526,586
2008 589,980 589,980
2009 601,927 601,927
2010 629,769 629,769
2011 754,125 754,125
2012 687,638 687,638
2013 723,569 723,569
196,980 2014 622,208 622,208
199,723 2015 478,448 478,448
202,215 2016 515,471 515,471
204,735 2017 595,803 595,803
207,057 2018 599,738 599,738
209,264 2019 770,808 713,633
211,494 2020 946,506 829,426
213,747 2021 1,127,239 947,428
216,025 2022 1,313,154 1,067,679
218,327 2023 1,504,398 1,190,224
220,654 2024 1,701,123 1,315,106
223,005 2025 1,903,487 1,442,369
225,382 2026 2,111,652 1,572,058
227,784 2027 2,325,784 1,704,221
230,211 2028 2,546,054 1,838,904
232,664 2029 2,772,637 1,976,155
235,144 2030 3,005,716 2,116,023
237,650 2031 3,245,475 2,258,559
240,182 2032 3,492,107 2,403,813
242,742 2033 3,745,808 2,551,836
245,329 2034 4,006,782 2,702,682
247,943 2035 4,275,236 2,856,404
250,585 2036 4,551,385 3,013,058
253,256 2037 4,835,449 3,172,699
255,955 2038 5,127,656 3,335,385
258,682 2039 5,428,239 3,501,172
NAIK PDRB
597,565
611,070 Regression Statistics
590,052 Multiple R 0.9928243936
608,299 R Square 0.9857002766
617,756 Adjusted R Square 0.9428011063
665,783 Standard Error 22093.1606033
863,686 Observations 5
713,407
726,286 ANOVA
664,981 df SS MS
638,587 Regression 3 33645961186.6 11215320395.5
504,767 Residual 1 488107745.442 488107745.442
485,817 Total 4 34134068932
680,288
703,492 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat
726,928 Intercept -2342966.04259 9951773.073 -0.2354320205
750,543 X Variable 1 -1.5368282481 2.8426995876 -0.5406228132
774,340 X Variable 2 8.682126208 1.8475571479 4.6992463632
798,320 X Variable 3 16.0258215764 60.6376742501 0.2642881966
822,485
846,836
871,374
896,100
921,017
946,126
971,427
996,924
1,022,616
1,048,506
1,074,596
1,100,886
1,127,378
1,154,074
1,180,975
1,208,083
F Significance F
0.0604670582 0.9731801125
NAIK
Optimis
PDRB 11.56
BONGKAR/MUAT 6.06
NAIK
Tahun
Variabel Dependen TRANSPORTASI
2014 680,288 651,835
2015 485,817 707,656
2016 504,767 773,000
2017 638,587 815,748
2018 664,981 857,951
Moderat Pesimis
2.94 2.38
3.17 1.15
moderat
TAHUN NAIK TURUN TOTAL
HISTORIS 2005 597,565 548,686 1,146,251
2006 611,070 471,282 1,082,352
2007 590,052 526,586 1,116,638
2008 608,299 589,980 1,198,279
2009 617,756 601,927 1,219,683
2010 665,783 629,769 1,295,552
2011 863,686 754,125 1,617,811
2012 713,407 687,638 1,401,045
2013 726,286 723,569 1,449,855
2014 664,981 622,208 1,287,189
2015 638,587 478,448 1,117,035
2016 504,767 515,471 1,020,238
2017 485,817 595,803 1,081,620
2018 680,288 599,738 1,280,026
2019 712,453 663,506 1,375,960
2020 745,014 727,683 1,472,697
2021 777,921 792,544 1,570,466
2022 811,180 858,096 1,669,276
2023 844,792 924,347 1,769,139
2024 878,763 991,303 1,870,067
2025 913,096 1,058,974 1,972,070
2026 947,795 1,127,365 2,075,160
2027 982,864 1,196,485 2,179,349
2028 1,018,306 1,266,342 2,284,648
2029 1,054,126 1,336,943 2,391,069
2030 1,090,328 1,408,297 2,498,624
2031 1,126,915 1,480,411 2,607,326
2032 1,163,892 1,553,293 2,717,185
2033 1,201,264 1,626,952 2,828,216
2034 1,239,034 1,701,396 2,940,430
2035 1,277,206 1,776,634 3,053,839
2036 1,315,785 1,852,673 3,168,457
2037 1,354,775 1,929,522 3,284,297
2038 1,394,180 2,007,191 3,401,371
2039 1,434,006 2,085,687 3,519,693
PENUMPANG INTERNASIONAL
MODERAT
TAHUN NAIK TURUN TOTAL
2005 428,478 435,141 863,619
2006 321,246 294,432 615,678
2007 289,890 289,890 579,780
2008 247,729 247,729 495,458
2009 192,771 192,771 385,542
2010 203,345 203,345 406,690
2011 214,139 214,139 428,278
2012 207,626 207,626 415,252
2013 230,256 230,256 460,512
2014 680,288 249,238 929,526
2015 485,817 216,786 702,603
2016 504,767 266,740 771,507
2017 638,587 234,087 872,674
2018 664,981 194,059 859,040
2019 686,040 200,204 886,244
2020 707,765 206,545 914,310
2021 730,179 213,085 943,264
2022 753,302 219,833 973,135
2023 777,158 226,795 1,003,953
2024 801,769 233,977 1,035,746
2025 827,159 241,387 1,068,546
2026 853,354 249,031 1,102,385
2027 880,378 256,917 1,137,295
2028 908,258 265,054 1,173,311
2029 937,020 273,447 1,210,468
2030 966,694 282,107 1,248,801
2031 997,307 291,041 1,288,348
2032 1,028,890 300,257 1,329,147
2033 1,061,473 309,766 1,371,239
2034 1,095,088 319,575 1,414,663
2035 1,129,767 329,696 1,459,463
2036 1,165,544 340,137 1,505,681
2037 1,202,455 350,908 1,553,363
2038 1,240,534 362,021 1,602,555
2039 1,279,820 373,485 1,653,305
DEMAND TANJUNG MOCOH DEMAND SBP IN
Asumsi 20%
MODERAT MODERAT
Ship CalL #1
TAHUN NAIK TURUN TOTAL TAHUN
2005 428,478 435,141 863,619 2005
2006 321,246 294,432 615,678 2006
2007 289,890 289,890 579,780 2007
2008 247,729 247,729 495,458 2008
2009 192,771 192,771 385,542 2009
2010 203,345 203,345 406,690 2010
2011 214,139 214,139 428,278 2011
2012 207,626 207,626 415,252 2012
2013 230,256 230,256 460,512 2013
2014 680,288 249,238 929,526 2014
2015 485,817 216,786 702,603 2015
2016 504,767 266,740 771,507 2016
2017 638,587 234,087 872,674 2017
2018 664,981 194,059 859,040 2018
2019 137,208 40,041 177,249 801 2019
2020 141,553 41,309 182,862 826 2020
2021 146,036 42,617 188,653 852 2021
2022 150,660 43,967 194,627 879 2022
2023 155,432 45,359 200,791 907 2023
2024 160,354 46,795 207,149 936 2024
2025 165,432 48,277 213,709 966 2025
2026 170,671 49,806 220,477 996 2026
2027 176,076 51,383 227,459 1028 2027
2028 181,652 53,011 234,662 1060 2028
2029 187,404 54,689 242,094 1094 2029
2030 193,339 56,421 249,760 1128 2030
2031 199,461 58,208 257,670 1164 2031
2032 205,778 60,051 265,829 1201 2032
2033 212,295 61,953 274,248 1239 2033
2034 219,018 63,915 282,933 1278 2034
2035 225,953 65,939 291,893 1319 2035
2036 233,109 68,027 301,136 1361 2036
2037 240,491 70,182 310,673 1404 2037
2038 248,107 72,404 320,511 1448 2038
2039 255,964 74,697 330,661 1494 2039
DEMAND SBP INTNL
Data Naik Turun Penumpang
MODERAT DOMESTIK INTERNASIONAL
NAIK TURUN TOTAL TAHUN NAIK TURUN NAIK
428,478 435,141 863,619 2005 428,478 435,141 428,478
321,246 294,432 615,678 2006 321,246 294,432 321,246
289,890 289,890 579,780 2007 289,890 289,890 289,890
247,729 247,729 495,458 2008 247,729 247,729 247,729
192,771 192,771 385,542 2009 192,771 192,771 192,771
203,345 203,345 406,690 2010 203,345 203,345 203,345
214,139 214,139 428,278 2011 214,139 214,139 214,139
207,626 207,626 415,252 2012 207,626 207,626 207,626
230,256 230,256 460,512 2013 230,256 230,256 230,256
680,288 249,238 929,526 2014 680,288 249,238 680,288
485,817 216,786 702,603 2015 485,817 216,786 485,817
504,767 266,740 771,507 2016 504,767 266,740 504,767
638,587 234,087 872,674 2017 638,587 234,087 638,587
664,981 194,059 859,040 2018 664,981 194,059 664,981
548,832 160,164 708,995 3203
566,212 165,236 731,448 3305
584,143 170,468 754,611 3409
602,642 175,867 778,508 3517
621,726 181,436 803,162 3629
641,415 187,182 828,597 3744 rekayasa
661,727 193,109 854,837 3862
682,683 199,225 881,908 3984
704,302 205,534 909,836 4111
Pelabuhan Sri B
726,606 212,043 938,649 4241
1,400,000
749,616 218,758 968,374 4375
773,355 225,685 999,041 4514 1,200,000
EKSISTING
enumpang
INTERNASIONAL TOTAL
TURUN DOMESTIK INTERNASIONAL
435,141 863,619 863,619
294,432 615,678 615,678
289,890 579,780 579,780
247,729 495,458 495,458
192,771 385,542 385,542
203,345 406,690 406,690
214,139 428,278 428,278
207,626 415,252 415,252
230,256 460,512 460,512
249,238 929,526 929,526
216,786 702,603 702,603
266,740 771,507 771,507
234,087 872,674 872,674
194,059 859,040 859,040
4,000,000
Pelabuhan Sri3,500,000
Bintan Pura
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
0 05 007 009 011 013 015 017 019 021 023 025 027 029 031 033 035 037 039
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2 25 227 229 312 332 35 2 37 2 39 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
PENUMPANG DOMESTIK PENUMPANG INTERBASIONAL
EKSISTING PROYEKSI
KEKURANGAN = M3 TIDAK DIHITUNG DAN LOAD FACTOR H
LOAD FACTOR
ZONA - TJ PINANG 75608
SEAT 400
SEAT KM 30,243,200
PASSANGER ON SEAT 200
PASSANGER KM 15,121,600
LOAD FACTOR 50
#DIV/0!
Demand Pelabuhan Dompak
8600
7600
6600
5600
4600
3600
2600
1600
600
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Tahun 2017
< 500 GT > 500 GT CALL
76 244
168 148
98 123
108 138
128 133
149 189
178 154
124 136
92 175
105 203
90 178
201 146
126 164 290
1516 1969 3485
6 37 38 39
20 20 20
6 37 38 39
20 20 20
35 36 37 38 39
20 20 20 20 20
TERMINAL DOMINAN NAIK
Tahun
Variabel Satuan
(2019-2024)
Penumpang Domestik org 878,763
Koefisien Musim Puncak 1.25
Kebutuhan Luas/PNP m2 1.5
Kunjungan Kapal Domestik call 9,350
Koefisien Fasilitas Pendukung 0.5
Penumpang Menunggu (Asumsi) domestik % 351,505
1,221
Information center domestik m2 6.0
loket tiket domestik m2 30.0
Counter Check-inn* m2 305
toilet m2 61
mushola m2 49
R. Pelayanan kesehatan m2 12
R. Merokok m2 6
R. Ibu Menyusui m2 12
R. Pelayanan Pelayaran m2 12
Kebutuhan Luas Terminal Domestik m2 711
Eksisting Terminal Domestik m2 558
Rencana Pengembangan Domestik m2 154
*Catatan: Counter checkin dengan kapasitas 23 orang/ jam (pada 12
jam puncak) yang dilayani oleh 10 konter
DERMAGA INTL
Tahun
Tahun Satuan
(2019-2024)
Kunjungan Kapal (Call) 5,179
Waktu Pelayanan (jam/hari) 9
Waktu Efektif (hari/tahun) 365
Berth Occupancy Ratio % 70
Kebutuhan Tambatan Unit 1.8
Pembulatan Unit 2
Kondisi Eksisting Unit 4
Kesimpulan -
LAPANGAN PARKIR
Tahun
` Satuan
(2019-2024)
Arus Naik/Turun Penumpang orang 1,680,532
Standar Lahan Parkir (mobil) m2 18
Standar Lahan Parkir (motor) m2 2
Asumsi Penumpang Membawa Kendaraan/Tahun (mobil) Unit 16,805
Asumsi Penumpang Membawa Kendaraan/hari (mobil) Unit 47
Asumsi Penumpang Membawa Kendaraan/Tahun (motor) Unit 8,403
Asumsi Penumpang Membawa Kendaraan/hari (motor) Unit 23
Kebutuhan Lahan Parkir Mobil m2 840
Kebutuhan Lahan Parkir Motor m2 35
Kebutuhan Lahan Parkir (mobil dan motor) m2 875
Kondisi Eksisting m2 2,216
kondfirmasi
Membutuhkan Perluasan
Tahun
(2019-2029) (2019-2039)
11,955 17,598 0.4
9 9
365 365
70 70
4.2 6.2
5.0 7.0
7 7
- -
Tahun
(2019-2029) (2019-2039)
6,052 8,267
9 9
365 365
70 70
2.1 2.9
3 3
4 4
- -
Tahun
(2019-2029) (2019-2039)
1,991,146 2,713,826 4668
18 18 1867
2 2
19,911 27,138
55 75
9,956 13,569
28 38
996 1,357
41 57
1,037 1,413
2,216 2,216
33 48
4 5
Tahun
(2019-2029) (2019-2039)
937,020 1,279,820
1.25 1.25
2 2
7073 8267
0.6 0.7
374,808 511,928
1301 1778
60.0 60.0
30.0 30.0
326 445
130 178
104 142
12 12
6 6
12 12
12 12
1385 1449
1116 1116
269 333
DALAM NEGERI
1,500,000
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
1
LUAR NEGERI
6,000,000
DALAM NEGERI 2018
5,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
1,287,189
5,000,000
1,117,035
1,020,238
1,081,620 4,000,000
1,280,026
1,375,960
3,000,000
1,472,697
1,570,466
1,669,276 2,000,000
1,769,139
1,870,067 1,000,000
1,972,070
2,075,160
0
2,179,349 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
2,284,648
DALAM NEGERI 2018 GAP DALAM NEGERI 2014
2,391,069
2,498,624 2,000,000
2,607,326
1,800,000
2,717,185
1,632,162
2,828,216 1,576,090
1,527,787
1,600,000
2,940,430
3,053,839
1,400,000
3,168,457 1,287,189
3,284,297 1,200,000
3,401,371
3,519,693 1,117,035
1,000,000
1,020,238
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1 2 3
5,696,051
5,696,051
3,053,839
4 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039
DALAM NEGERI 2014 DALAM NEGERI 2018
1,696,910 1,771,338
1,632,162
1,280,026
1,081,620
1,020,238
3 4 5
DERMAGA DOMESTIK
TAHUN VS St WE n BOR
2005 15,914 12.00 4,320 1
2006 17,831 12.00 4,320 3
2007 16,683 12.00 4,320 3
2008 17,211 12.00 4,320 3
2009 16,591 12.00 4,320 3
2010 17,597 12.00 4,320 3
2011 21,036 12.00 4,320 3
2012 20,798 12.00 4,320 3
2013 22,523 12.00 4,320 3
2014 19,871 12.00 4,320 3
2015 19,210 12.00 4,320 3
2016 17,497 12.00 4,320 3
2017 14,366 12.00 4,320 3 20
2018 13,249 12.00 4,320 3 12
2019 13,270 12.00 4,320 3 12
2020 14,554 12.00 4,320 3 13
2021 15,851 12.00 4,320 3 15
2022 17,162 12.00 4,320 3 16
2023 18,487 12.00 4,320 3 17
2024 19,826 12.00 4,320 3 18
2025 21,179 12.00 4,320 3 20
2026 22,547 12.00 4,320 3 21
2027 23,930 12.00 4,320 3 22
2028 25,327 12.00 4,320 3 23
2029 26,739 12.00 4,320 3 25
2030 28,166 12.00 4,320 3 26
2031 29,608 12.00 4,320 3 27
2032 31,066 12.00 4,320 3 29
2033 32,539 12.00 4,320 3 30
2034 34,028 12.00 4,320 3 32
2035 35,533 12.00 4,320 3 33
2036 37,053 12.00 4,320 3 34
2037 38,590 12.00 4,320 3 36
2038 40,144 12.00 4,320 3 37
2039 41,714 12.00 4,320 3 39
DERMAGA INTL
TAHUN VS St WE n BOR
2017 4,064 1 4,320 3 16
2018 3,429 1 4,320 3 13
2019 4,004 12 4,320 2 6
2020 4,131 12 4,320 2 6
2021 4,262 12 4,320 2 6
2022 4,397 12 4,320 2 6
2023 4,536 12 4,320 2 6
2024 4,680 12 4,320 2 6
2025 4,828 12 4,320 2 7
2026 4,981 12 4,320 2 7
2027 5,138 12 4,320 2 7
2028 5,301 12 4,320 2 7
2029 5,469 12 4,320 2 8
2030 5,642 12 4,320 2 8
2031 5,821 12 4,320 2 8
2032 6,005 12 4,320 2 8
2033 6,195 12 4,320 2 9
2034 6,392 12 4,320 2 9
2035 6,594 12 4,320 2 9
2036 6,803 12 4,320 2 9
2037 7,018 12 4,320 2 10
2038 7,240 12 4,320 2 10
2039 7,470 12 4,320 2 10
11
360
3960
165
45.83
17,497
Fasilitas Pelabuhan/Terminal Eksisting Satuan
Area Perairan :
1. Trestel
a. Penataan Terestel Domestik* m 185
b. Trestel Internasional* m 195
2. Dermaga
a. Dermaga Domestik m 90 x 11
b. Dermaga Internasional m 30 x 11
c. Phonton (2 Domestik, 2 Internasional) Buah 4
3. Penataan Karantina Tanaman (Posisi di laut) m2 175
4. Penataan Kantor Kesehatan (Posisi di laut) m 2
260
5. Penataan Kantor Hukum & HAM (Posisi di laut) m2 200
6. Penataan Cafetaria (Posisi di laut) m 2
300
Area Darat :
1. Penataan Lapangan Parkir m2 2216
2. Pos Pangkal Trestle Dalam Negeri m2 24
Area Perairan :
1. Trestel
a. Penataan Terestel Domestik* m 185
b. Trestel Internasional* m 195
2. Dermaga
a. Dermaga Domestik m 90 x 11
b. Dermaga Internasional m 30 x 11
c. Phonton (2 Domestik, 2 Internasional) Buah 4
3. Karantina Tanaman (Posisi di laut) m2 175
4. Kantor Kesehatan (Posisi di laut) m 2
260
5. Kantor Hukum & HAM (Posisi di laut) m2 200
6. Cafetaria (Posisi di laut) m 2
300
Area Darat :
1. Lapangan Parkir m2 2216
2. Pos Pangkal Trestle Dalam Negeri m2 24
90 x 11 90 x 11 90 x 11
30 x 11 30 x 11 30 x 11
4 4 4
175 175 175
260 260 260
200 200 200
300 300 300
Err:509
Program Pengembangan
Jangka Pendek Jangka Menengah Jangka Panjang
(2019-2024) (2019-2034) (2019-2039)
90 x 11 90 x 11 90 x 11
30 x 11 30 x 11 30 x 11
4 4 4
175 175 175
260 260 260
200 200 200
300 300 300
Area Perairan :
1. Trestel
a. Penataan Terestel Domestik* m 185
b. Trestel Internasional* m 195
2. Dermaga
a. Dermaga Domestik m 90 x 11
b. Dermaga Internasional m 30 x 11
c. Phonton (2 Domestik, 2 Internasional) Buah 4
3. Penataan Karantina Tanaman (Posisi di laut) m2 175
4. Penataan Kantor Kesehatan (Posisi di laut) m 2
260
5. Penataan Kantor Hukum & HAM (Posisi di laut) m2 200
6. Penataan Cafetaria (Posisi di laut) m 2
300
Area Darat :
1. Penataan Lapangan Parkir m2 2216
2. Pos Pangkal Trestle Dalam Negeri m2 24
3. Pos Pangkal Trestle Luar Negeri m2 25
4. Pos Pintu Masuk 1 m2 25
5. Pos Pintu Masuk 2 m2 56
6. Pos Pintu Keluar m2 16
7. Terminal Penumpang Dalam Negeri m2 557.5
8. Terminal Penumpang Luar Negeri m2 1116
9. Kantor Cabang Tanjung Pinang m2 773.88
10. Bak Air 50 m3 Unit 1
11. Rumah Genset m 2
21
12. Menara radar/tower Unit 1
13. Reklamasi* m -
14. Building Comercial (Penataan Terminal Penumpang
m2 -
Domestik dan Internasional)
Area Perairan :
1. Trestel
a. Penataan Terestel Domestik* m 185
b. Trestel Internasional* m 195
2. Dermaga
a. Dermaga Domestik m 90 x 11
b. Dermaga Internasional m 30 x 11
c. Phonton (2 Domestik, 2 Internasional) Buah 4
3. Karantina Tanaman (Posisi di laut) m2 175
4. Kantor Kesehatan (Posisi di laut) m 2
260
5. Kantor Hukum & HAM (Posisi di laut) m2 200
6. Cafetaria (Posisi di laut) m 2
300
Area Darat :
1. Lapangan Parkir m2 2216
2. Pos Pangkal Trestle Dalam Negeri m2 24
90 x 11 90 x 11 90 x 11
30 x 11 30 x 11 30 x 11
4 4 4
175 175 175
260 260 260
200 200 200
300 300 300
4000.0
Program Pengembangan
Jangka Pendek Jangka Menengah Jangka Panjang
(2019-2024) (2019-2034) (2019-2039)
90 x 11 90 x 11 90 x 11
30 x 11 30 x 11 30 x 11
4 4 4
175 175 175
260 260 260
200 200 200
300 300 300
Luas Ha
d. Areal Tempat Labuh
Jari-jari m
Luas m2
Luas Total
Ha
e. Areal Pindah Labuh Kapal
Jari-jari m
Luas m2
Luas Total
Ha
f. Areal Alih Muat Kapal Ha
g. Areal Penempatan Kapal Mati Ha
h. Areal Keperluan Keadaan Darurat Ha
i .Areal Percobaan Berlayar Ha
Lebar (Minimum) m
Panjang (Minimum) m
j. luas kolam pelabuhan
Tanpa tunda Ha
Rata-rata karakteristik
Formula kapal pengembangan
jangka panjang
100
35
4.0
2.3
139.68
139.68
1.00
1.00
1.00
2,000.00
-
4 B + 30 46.00
2L 70.00
A= N π R2 53.76
3L 105.00
A= N π R2 120.95
R=L + 6 D + 30 78.80
A=π R2 19,508
N*A 1.95
R=L + 6 D + 30 78.80
A=π R2 19,507.53
N*A 1.95
N*A 1.95
N*A 0.98
50 % Areal Labuh 0.98
A = Panjang x Lebar 2.58
Lebar Alur 46.00
16 L 560.00
167.15
BOR ALTERNATIVE 1
BOR LOA 2017 BOR LOA 2018
LOA 1102 LOA
Clearence 5 Clearence
Berth Time 5 Berth Time
Lengt of Berth 230 Lengt of Berth
Day in Hour 120 Day in Hour
Effective Time 0.3 Effective Time
BOR 67 BOR
2017 941 2
2018 918 2
230 120 605 2019 965 2
230 120 2020 989 2
230 120 2021 1014 2
230 120 2022 1039 2
230 120 2023 1065 2
230 120 2024 1092 2
230 120 2025 1119 2
230 120 2026 1147 2
230 120 2027 1176 2
230 120 2028 1205 2
230 120 2029 1235 2
230 120 2030 1266 2
230 120 2031 1298 2
230 120 2032 1331 2
230 120 2033 1364 2
230 120 2034 1398 2
230 120 2035 1433 2
230 120 2036 1469 2
230 120 2037 1506 2
230 120 2038 1544 2
230 120 2039 1582 2
ALTERNATIVE 2 BOR ALTE
BOR LOA 2018 BOR LOA 2017
Average berth 918 VS
Wt 2 St
Lengt of Berth 230 WE
Day in Hour 24 n
Effective Time 0.5 BOR
BOR 67
DERMAGA DOMESTIK
Lengt of Berth Day in Hour Effective Time BOR TAHUN
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
230 24 0.33 103.32 2017
230 24 0.33 100.79 2018
230 24 0.33 105.90 2019
230 24 0.33 108.56 9.67 2020
230 24 0.33 111.28 8.91 2021
230 24 0.33 114.07 8.27 2022
230 24 0.33 116.92 7.72 2023
230 24 0.33 119.85 7.24 2024
230 24 0.33 122.86 6.83 2025
230 24 0.33 125.93 6.46 2026
230 24 0.33 129.09 6.13 2027
230 24 0.33 132.32 5.84 2028
230 24 0.33 135.64 5.58 2029
230 24 0.33 139.04 5.34 2030
230 24 0.33 142.52 5.12 2031
230 24 0.33 146.09 4.92 2032
230 24 0.33 149.75 4.74 2033
230 24 0.33 153.50 4.58 2034
230 24 0.33 157.35 4.42 2035
230 24 0.33 161.29 4.28 2036
230 24 0.33 165.33 4.15 2037
230 24 0.33 169.47 4.03 2038
230 24 0.33 173.72 3.91 2039
5.91
DERMAGA INTL
TAHUN
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
990 2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
BOR ALTERNATIVE 3
BOR LOA 2017 BOR LOA 2018 JAM/HARI 12
14366 VS 249 HARI/TAHUN 360
0.50 St 0.46 JAM/TAHUN 4320
4320 WE 4320 WE 180
2 n 2 % jam 50.00
83 BOR 1
DERMAGA DOMESTIK
VS St WE n BOR Tahun VS St
15,914 12 4320 1 44 2024 19826 0.4
17,831 12 4320 1 50 2034 34028 0.4
16,683 12 4320 1 46 2039 41714 0.4
17,211 12 4320 1 48
16,591 12 4320 1 46
17,597 12 4320 1 49
21,036 12 4320 1 58
20,798 12 4320 1 58
22,523 12 4320 1 63
19,871 12 4320 2 28
19,210 12 4320 2 27
17,497 12 4320 2 24
14,366 12 4320 2 20
13,249 12 4320 3 12
13,270 12 4320 3 12
14,554 12 4320 3 13
15,851 12 4320 3 15
17,162 12 4320 3 16
18,487 12 4320 3 17
19,826 12 4320 3 18
21,179 12 4320 3 20
22,547 12 4320 3 21
23,930 12 4320 3 22
25,327 12 4320 3 23
26,739 12 4320 3 25
28,166 12 4320 3 26
29,608 12 4320 3 27
31,066 12 4320 3 29
32,539 12 4320 3 30
34,028 12 4320 3 32
35,533 12 4320 3 33
37,053 12 4320 3 34
38,590 12 4320 3 36
40,144 12 4320 3 37
41,714 12 4320 3 39
DERMAGA INTL
VS St WE n BOR
4,004 12.00 4,320 2 5.56
4,131 12.00 4,320 2 5.74
4,262 12.00 4,320 2 5.92
4,397 12.00 4,320 2 6.11
4,536 12.00 4,320 2 6.30
4,680 12.00 4,320 2 6.50
4,828 12.00 4,320 2 6.71
4,981 12.00 4,320 2 6.92
5,138 12.00 4,320 2 7.14
5,301 12.00 4,320 2 7.36
5,469 12.00 4,320 2 7.60
5,642 12.00 4,320 2 7.84
5,821 12.00 4,320 2 8.08
6,005 12.00 4,320 2 8.34
6,195 12.00 4,320 2 8.60
6,392 12.00 4,320 2 8.88
6,594 12.00 4,320 2 9.16
6,803 12.00 4,320 2 9.45
7,018 12.00 4,320 2 9.75
7,240 12.00 4,320 2 10.06
7,470 12.00 4,320 2 10.37
Day BOR Tambatan
150 70 0.8 1.0
150 70 1.3 2.0
150 70 1.6 2.0
Jenis Dermaga
Jumlah Penumpang DN/Tahun 420,184
Persentase Naik Turun 40%
Jumlah Penumpang DN Naik/Turun 168,074
Jumlah Kunjungan Kapal (kapal/tahun) 2,581
Jumlah Kunjungan Kapal (kapal/minggu) 54
Service Time (Jam/Kapal) 0.5
Hari Kerja (Jam/Minggu) 63
Berth Occupancy Ratio (%) 70
Jumlah Tambatan 629,399
Pembulatan
Panjang Kapal (meter)
Panjang Dermaga (meter)
GRT CONVERT TO DWT US VERSION
GRT CONVERT TO DWT JAPAN VERSION
54
Tahun 2017
Bulan Kunjungan Bobot Persentase Bulan LOA
10 > 500 GT 4 Januari 651
Januari
3 < 500 GT 1.2 -22.1198 Februari 507
7 > 500 GT 2.8 37.08087 Maret 695
Februari
3 < 500 GT 1.2 13.81295 April 791
10 > 500 GT 4 65.48673 Mei 1309
Maret
4 < 500 GT 1.6 -27.5783 Juni 948
9 > 500 GT 3.6 20.99156 Juli 1147
April
8 < 500 GT 3.2 20.13949 Agustus 1378
14 > 500 GT 5.6 -16.0377 September 1157
Mei
14 < 500 GT 5.6 4.926534 Oktober 1214
8 > 500 GT 3.2 10.21417 November 1338
Juni
6 < 500 GT 2.4 55.90433 Desember 2086
14 > 500 GT 5.6 14.8 Average 1102
Juli
14 < 500 GT 5.6 2018 1219
11 > 500 GT 4.4 2019 1349
Agustus
12 < 500 GT 4.8 2020 1492
13 > 500 GT 5.2 2021 1651
September
12 < 500 GT 4.8 2022 1826
12 > 500 GT 4.8 2023 2021
Oktober
14 < 500 GT 5.6 2024 2236
11 > 500 GT 4.4 2025 2473
November
15 < 500 GT 6 2026 2737
12 > 500 GT 4.8 2027 3028
Desember
14 < 500 GT 5.6 2028 3350
Rata-rata 250 100 2029 3706
Persentase >500 GT 52.4 2030 4100
Persentase <500 GT 47.6 2031 4537
Kunjungan >500 GT 131 2032 5019
Kunjungan <500 GT 119 2033 5553
2034 6144
2035 6797
2036 7520
2037 8320
2038 9205
2039 10185
Tahun 2017
GT RATA2 LOA
961 54.3
783 50.7
761 49.6
659 46.5
619 46.8
1245 67.7
1039 47.8
1260 59.9
645 46.3
679 48.6
583 51.5
571 80.2
817 54.15
59.91
66.29
73.34
81.14
89.77
99.32
109.88
121.57
134.51
148.81
164.64
182.16
201.54
222.97
246.69
272.94
301.97
334.09
369.63
408.95
452.46
500.59
Tahun 2018
Bulan LOA
Januari 1475
Februari 804
Maret 1254
April 1019
Mei 1408
Juni 799
Juli 952
Agustus 1458
September 1098
Oktober 1835
November 0
Desember 0
Average 1009
BOR LOA BOR NON LOA
LOA 0 VS 363
Clearence 5 St 0.3
Berth Time 5 WE 120
Lengt of Berth 230 n 2
Day in Hour 24 BOR 45
Effective Time 0.3
BOR 2
Effective Time
0.5
BOR ALTERNATIVE 1
BOR LOA 2017 BOR LOA 2018
LOA 1102 LOA
Clearence 5 Clearence
Berth Time 5 Berth Time
Lengt of Berth 230 Lengt of Berth
Day in Hour 120 Day in Hour
Effective Time 0.3 Effective Time
BOR 67 BOR
2.51
TAHUN
2017 941
2018 918
2019 965
2020 518
2021 531
2022 544
2023 558
2024 572
2025 586
2026 601
2027 616
2028 632
2029 647
2030 664
2031 680
2032 697
2033 715
2034 733
2035 751
2036 770
2037 789
2038 809
2039 829
b/m
jumlah crane
efektifitas/jam
operasional/jam
hari
BOR ALTERNATIVE 2 JAM PEMAKAIAN
BOR LOA 2018 JAM/HARI 8
Average berth 918 HARI/TAHUN 360
Wt 2 JAM/TAHUN 2880
Lengt of Berth 230 HARI 120
Day in Hour 24 EFEKTIF TIME 0.33
Effective Time 0.5
BOR 67
Rata-rat perhari
242,502 5,000
3 5
162 270
8 8
187 2
BOR ALTERNATIVE 3
BOR LOA 2017 BOR LOA 2018
VS 268 VS 249
St 0.3 St 0.3
WE 24 WE 24
n 2 n 2
BOR 168 BOR 156
TAHUN VS St WE n BOR
2017 268 0.3 24 2 168
2018 249 0.3 24 2 156
2019 295 0.3 24 2 185
2020 129 0.3 24 2 81
2021 130 0.3 24 2 81
2022 130 0.3 24 2 81
2023 131 0.3 24 2 82
2024 131 0.3 24 2 82
2025 132 0.3 24 2 82
2026 132 0.3 24 2 83
2027 133 0.3 24 2 83
2028 133 0.3 24 2 83
2029 134 0.3 24 2 84
2030 135 0.3 24 2 84
2031 135 0.3 24 2 85
2032 136 0.3 24 2 85
2033 136 0.3 24 2 85
2034 137 0.3 24 2 86
2035 138 0.3 24 2 86
2036 138 0.3 24 2 86
2037 139 0.3 24 2 87
2038 140 0.3 24 2 87
2039 140 0.3 24 2 88
Berth Time
No Bulan
2017 2018
1 JANUARI 5 4
2 FEBRUARI 6 5
3 MARET 6 5
4 APRIL 5 5
5 MEI 5 5
6 JUNI 5 6
7 JULI 6 4
8 AGUSTUS 6 6
9 SEPTEMBER 5 5
10 OKTOBER 5 6
11 NOVEMBER 5 -
12 DESEMBER 5 -
2018 5 5
Kunjungan Kapal
Persentase Keterangan Load Faktor
52.4 Kunjungan Kapal >500 GT 85
47.6 Kunjungan Kapal <500 GT 123
Persentase Keterangan
56.49 Ton Kapal >500 GT
43.51 Ton Kapal <500 GT
- kesehatan pelabuhan
- Navigasi
-EMKL
- Amenities
- Keagenan
- Terminal Penumpang
- Karantina
DEMAND
185
Bongkar SPBA Muat Total
251,644 14,237 265,881
180 298,345 14,296 312,641
347,731 14,355 362,085
175 399,953 14,415 414,368
455,176 14,476 469,652
513,572 14,537 528,109
170
575,324 14,599 589,923
640,623 14,663 655,286
165 709,674 14,726 724,401
782,693 14,791 797,484
160 859,907 14,857 874,764
941,558 14,923 956,481
1,027,900 14,991 1,042,890
1,119,202 15,059 1,134,261
1,215,751 15,128 1,230,879
1,317,847 15,198 1,333,045
1,425,809 15,269 1,441,078
1,539,975 15,341 1,555,315
1,660,700 15,413 1,676,113
1,788,361 15,487 1,803,848
KETERANGAN
10 orang
2 kelompok kerja
3 orang
1 kelompok kerja
8 orang
2 kelompok kerja
3 orang
1 kelompok kerja
2 orang
1 kelompok kerja
2 orang
1 kelompok kerja
2 orang
1 kelompok kerja
1 kelompok kerja
50 orang
1 pemberangkatan
50 org / pemberangkatan
1.5 faktor arus maksimum
3 orang
45
50
25%
30
1
80
1.8
100
Total
140
70
70
70
70
70
42
532
BOR LOA 2018
VS
St
WE
n
BOR
SC
TAHUN Bongkar Muat Ship Call TAHUN SHIP CALL
2020 251,644 14,237 167 2019 295
2021 298,345 14,296 168 2020 129
2022 347,731 14,355 169 2021 130
2023 399,953 14,415 170 2022 130
2024 455,176 14,476 170 2023 131
2025 513,572 14,537 171 2024 131
2026 575,324 14,599 172 2025 132
2027 640,623 14,663 173 2026 132
2028 709,674 14,726 173 2027 133
2029 782,693 14,791 174 2028 133
2030 859,907 14,857 175 2029 134
2031 941,558 14,923 176 2030 135
2032 1,027,900 14,991 176 2031 135
2033 1,119,202 15,059 177 2032 136
2034 1,215,751 15,128 178 2033 136
2035 1,317,847 15,198 179 2034 137
2036 1,425,809 15,269 180 2035 138
2037 1,539,975 15,341 180 2036 138
2038 1,660,700 15,413 181 2037 139
2039 1,788,361 15,487 182 2038 140
2039 140
Perhitungan Kebutuhan Luas Parkir Truk dan Forklift di
(%)
1 2 3 6 7 8 9
1 2 3 6 7 8 9
1 2020 100.00 0 0 22 74
2 2025 100.00 0 0 44 147
3 2030 100.00 0 0 91 304
4 2035 100.00 0 0 139 463
5 2039 100.00 0 0 225 752
Keterangan
Trailer @75 m2
Forlift @50 m2
Truk @75 m2
BOR LOA 2018 JAM/HARI 12
100 HARI/TAHUN 360
0.50 JAM/TAHUN 4320
4320 WE 180
2 % jam 50.00
BOR
LOA Clearence Berth Time Lengt of Berth Day in Hour BOR
1349 5 5 84 360 22
1492 5 5 84 360 25
1651 5 5 84 360 27
1826 5 5 84 360 30
2021 5 5 84 360 33
2236 5 5 84 360 37
2473 5 5 84 360 41
2737 5 5 84 360 45
3028 5 5 84 360 50
3350 5 5 84 360 55
3706 5 5 84 360 61
4100 5 5 84 360 68
4537 5 5 84 360 75
5019 5 5 84 360 83
5553 5 5 84 360 92
6144 5 5 84 360 102
6797 5 5 84 360 112
7520 5 5 84 360 124
8320 5 5 84 360 138
9205 5 5 84 360 152
10185 5 5 84 360 168
ruk dan Forklift di Areal Cargo
(m2)
11 12
11 12
1,662 1,684
3,301 3,345
6,834 6,925
10,414 10,553
16,911 17,137
Keterangan
To 75%
T1 25%
T2 20% Sth Lapangan =
T3 80%
Throughput (ton)
Tahun Total Kargo (ton)
T0 T1 T2
2020 265,881 199,411 49,853 9,971
17.59 2021 312,641 234,481 58,620 11,724
15.82 2022 362,085 271,564 67,891 13,578
14.44 2023 414,368 310,776 77,694 15,539
13.34 2024 469,652 352,239 88,060 17,612
12.45 2025 528,109 396,082 99,021 19,804
11.70 2026 589,923 442,442 110,611 22,122
11.08 2027 655,286 491,464 122,866 24,573
10.55 2028 724,401 543,301 135,825 27,165
10.09 2029 797,484 598,113 149,528 29,906
9.69 2030 874,764 656,073 164,018 32,804
9.34 2031 956,481 717,361 179,340 35,868
9.03 2032 1,042,890 782,168 195,542 39,108
8.76 2033 1,134,261 850,696 212,674 42,535
8.52 2034 1,230,879 923,159 230,790 46,158
8.30 2035 1,333,045 999,784 249,946 49,989
8.10 2036 1,441,078 1,080,809 270,202 54,040
7.93 2037 1,555,315 1,166,487 291,622 58,324
7.77 2038 1,676,113 1,257,085 314,271 62,854
7.62 2039 1,803,848 1,352,886 338,222 67,644
10.64
Rencana Pengembangan
Jangka Jangka
Fasilitas Satuan Pendek Menengah
2019 - 2024 2019 - 2029
A. FASILITAS POKOK PELABUHAN
Dermaga m 30 x 12 120 x 12
t (ton)
A Lapanga N (m2) A Gudang (m2)
T3
39,882 464 309
46,896 545 363
54,313 631 421
62,155 722 482
70,448 819 546
79,216 921 614
88,488 1,029 686
98,293 1,143 762
108,660 1,263 842
119,623 1,390 927
131,215 1,525 1,017
143,472 1,668 1,112
156,434 1,818 1,212
170,139 1,978 1,318
184,632 2,146 1,431
199,957 2,324 1,549
216,162 2,513 1,675
233,297 2,712 1,808
251,417 2,922 1,948
270,577 3,145 2,097
Jangka
Panjang
2019 -2039
150 x 12
600 x 8
22,378
3,145
2,097
17,137
532
140
70
70
70
70
70
42
10
10
6
1
2
985
185
5x4
5x4
4
65
49
2039
1
212
226
No Uraian Satuan 2019 2024
No Jumlah peralatan
- Mobile crane 20 ton Unit 0.41 0.84 1.42 2.19 3.21
- Mobile crane 10 ton Unit 2.05 4.18 7.10 10.96 16.06
- Forklift truck 3ton, 10 ton Unit 8.21 16.73 28.40 43.83 64.24
- Trailer Unit 6.15 12.54 21.30 32.88 48.18
Persentase Keterangan
5.00 Asumsi SPLIT
43.51 Ton Kapal <500 GT
- kesehatan pelabuhan
- Navigasi
-EMKL
- Amenities
- Keagenan
- Terminal Penumpang
- Karantina
DEMAND
Bongkar SPBA Muat Total
17,646 1,196 18,843
27,296 1,239 28,536
42,223 1,284 43,507
65,313 1,330 66,643
101,029 1,378 102,408
156,277 1,428 157,705
241,738 1,480 243,217
373,932 1,533 375,465
578,418 1,588 580,006
894,726 1,646 896,372
1,384,008 1,705 1,385,713
2,140,855 1,766 2,142,622
3,311,585 1,830 3,313,415
5,122,530 1,896 5,124,427
7,923,793 1,965 7,925,758
12,256,931 2,035 12,258,966
18,959,651 2,109 18,961,760
29,327,763 2,185 29,329,948
45,365,692 2,264 45,367,955
70,173,985 2,345 70,176,330
KETERANGAN
10 orang
2 kelompok kerja
3 orang
1 kelompok kerja
8 orang
2 kelompok kerja
3 orang
1 kelompok kerja
2 orang
1 kelompok kerja
2 orang
1 kelompok kerja
2 orang
1 kelompok kerja
1 kelompok kerja
50 orang
1 pemberangkatan
50 org / pemberangkatan
1.5 faktor arus maksimum
3 orang
45
50
25%
30
1
80
1.8
100
Total
140
70
70
70
70
70
42
532
BOR LOA 2018
VS
St
WE
n
BOR
SC
TAHUN Bongkar Muat Ship Call TAHUN SHIP CALL
2020 17,646 1,196 14 2019 295
2021 27,296 1,239 15 2020 129
2022 42,223 1,284 15 2021 130
2023 65,313 1,330 16 2022 130
2024 101,029 1,378 16 2023 131
2025 156,277 1,428 17 2024 131
2026 241,738 1,480 17 2025 132
2027 373,932 1,533 18 2026 132
2028 578,418 1,588 19 2027 133
2029 894,726 1,646 19 2028 133
2030 1,384,008 1,705 20 2029 134
2031 2,140,855 1,766 21 2030 135
2032 3,311,585 1,830 22 2031 135
2033 5,122,530 1,896 22 2032 136
2034 7,923,793 1,965 23 2033 136
2035 ### 2,035 24 2034 137
2036 ### 2,109 25 2035 138
2037 ### 2,185 26 2036 138
2038 ### 2,264 27 2037 139
2039 ### 2,345 28 2038 140
2039 140
Perhitungan Kebutuhan Luas Parkir Truk dan Forklift di
(%)
1 2 3 6 7 8 9
1 2 3 6 7 8 9
1 2020 100.00 0 0 2 5
2 2025 100.00 0 0 13 44
3 2030 100.00 0 0 144 481
4 2035 100.00 0 0 1,277 4,257
5 2039 100.00 0 0 8,772 29,240
Keterangan
Trailer @75 m2
Forlift @50 m2
Truk @75 m2
BOR LOA 2018 JAM/HARI 12
100 HARI/TAHUN 360
0.50 JAM/TAHUN 4320
4320 WE 180
2 % jam 50.00
BOR
LOA Clearence Berth Time Lengt of Berth Day in Hour BOR
1349 5 5 84 360 22
1492 5 5 84 360 25
1651 5 5 84 360 27
1826 5 5 84 360 30
2021 5 5 84 360 33
2236 5 5 84 360 37
2473 5 5 84 360 41
2737 5 5 84 360 45
3028 5 5 84 360 50
3350 5 5 84 360 55
3706 5 5 84 360 61
4100 5 5 84 360 68
4537 5 5 84 360 75
5019 5 5 84 360 83
5553 5 5 84 360 92
6144 5 5 84 360 102
6797 5 5 84 360 112
7520 5 5 84 360 124
8320 5 5 84 360 138
9205 5 5 84 360 152
10185 5 5 84 360 168
ruk dan Forklift di Areal Cargo
(m2)
11 12
11 12
118 119
986 999
10,826 10,970
95,773 97,050
657,903 666,675
Keterangan
To 75%
T1 25%
T2 20% Sth Lapangan =
T3 80%
Throughput (ton)
Tahun Total Kargo (ton)
T0 T1 T2
2020 18,843 14,132 3,533 707
51.44 2021 28,536 21,402 5,350 1,070
52.47 2022 43,507 32,630 8,158 1,632
53.18 2023 66,643 49,982 12,496 2,499
53.67 2024 102,408 76,806 19,201 3,840
54.00 2025 157,705 118,279 29,570 5,914
54.22 2026 243,217 182,413 45,603 9,121
54.37 2027 375,465 281,599 70,400 14,080
54.48 2028 580,006 435,004 108,751 21,750
54.55 2029 896,372 672,279 168,070 33,614
54.59 2030 1,385,713 1,039,285 259,821 51,964
54.62 2031 2,142,622 1,606,966 401,742 80,348
54.64 2032 3,313,415 2,485,062 621,265 124,253
54.66 2033 5,124,427 3,843,320 960,830 192,166
54.67 2034 7,925,758 5,944,318 1,486,080 297,216
54.67 2035 12,258,966 9,194,225 2,298,556 459,711
54.68 2036 18,961,760 14,221,320 3,555,330 711,066
54.68 2037 29,329,948 21,997,461 5,499,365 1,099,873
54.68 2038 45,367,955 34,025,967 8,506,492 1,701,298
54.68 2039 70,176,330 52,632,247 13,158,062 2,631,612
54.15
Rencana Pengembangan
Jangka Jangka
Fasilitas Satuan Pendek Menengah
2019 - 2024 2019 - 2029
A. FASILITAS POKOK PELABUHAN
Dermaga m 30 x 12 120 x 12
t (ton)
A Lapanga N (m2) A Gudang (m2)
T3
2,826 33 22
4,280 50 33
6,526 76 51
9,996 116 77
15,361 179 119
23,656 275 183
36,483 424 283
56,320 655 436
87,001 1,011 674
134,456 1,563 1,042
207,857 2,416 1,611
321,393 3,736 2,491
497,012 5,777 3,851
768,664 8,935 5,956
1,188,864 13,819 9,213
1,838,845 21,374 14,249
2,844,264 33,061 22,041
4,399,492 51,138 34,092
6,805,193 79,101 52,734
10,526,449 122,356 81,571
Jangka
Panjang
2019 -2039
150 x 12
600 x 8
870,602
122,356
81,571
666,675
532
140
70
70
70
70
70
42
10
10
6
1
2
985
185
5x4
5x4
125
2500
1875
2039
1
212
226
No Uraian Satuan 2019 2024
No Jumlah peralatan
- Mobile crane 20 ton Unit 0.03 0.18 1.60 14.11 124.96
- Mobile crane 10 ton Unit 0.15 0.91 7.98 70.56 624.79
- Forklift truck 3ton, 10 ton Unit 0.58 3.65 31.92 282.26 2499.16
- Trailer Unit 0.44 2.74 23.94 211.69 1874.37
Luas Ha
d. Areal Tempat Labuh
Jari-jari m
Luas m2
Luas Total
Ha
e. Areal Pindah Labuh Kapal
Jari-jari m
Luas m2
Luas Total
Ha
f. Areal Alih Muat Kapal Ha
g. Areal Penempatan Kapal Mati Ha
h. Areal Keperluan Keadaan Darurat Ha
i .Areal Percobaan Berlayar Ha
Lebar (Minimum) m
Panjang (Minimum) m
j. luas kolam pelabuhan
Tanpa tunda Ha
Rata-rata karakteristik
Formula kapal pengembangan
jangka panjang
1,500
80
11.0
4.5
139.68
139.68
1.00
1.00
1.00
2,000.00
-
4 B + 30 74.00
2L 160.00
A= N π R2 280.84
3L 240.00
A= N π R2 631.90
R=L + 6 D + 30 137.00
A=π R2 58,965
N*A 5.90
R=L + 6 D + 30 137.00
A=π R2 58,964.55
N*A 5.90
N*A 5.90
N*A 2.95
50 % Areal Labuh 2.95
A = Panjang x Lebar 9.47
Lebar Alur 74.00
16 L 1,280.00
873.26
Jangka Jangka Jangka
Fasilitas Satuan Pendek Menengah Panjang
2019 - 2024 2019 - 2029 2019 -2039
Trestle I m2 230 x 5 230 x 5 230 x 5
Pontoon I m2 8 x 10 8 x 10 8 x 10
Trestle II m2 194 x 5 194 x 5 194 x 5
Pontoon II m2 8 x 10 8 x 10 8 x 10
Terminal m2 10,064 10,064 10,064
NO DSI NAMA
Jenis Jasa
Ferry 200 GT
PAS Terminal Domestik
PAS Terminal INTNL
WNA
WNI
Kendaraan Roda 2
Kendaraan Roda 4
Jasa Tambat Internasional
Jasa Tambat Domestik
Sewa kios
Tahun
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
Tarif (DOM) Tarif (INTL)
150,000 365,000
10,000
60,000
40,000
2,000
4,000
315,000
75,000
350,000,000
Ship Call
Tahun
Call (DOM)
2019 295
2020 129
2021 130
2022 130
2023 131
2024 131
2025 132
2026 132
2027 133
2028 133
2029 134
2030 135
2031 135
2032 136
2033 136
2034 137
2035 138
2036 138
2037 139
2038 140
2039 140
Tarif (INTL)
975,000
1,170,000
0.04
Cash Flow
No. Year Cost Revenue 10.0%
Cost
2018 330,064,289,500 330,064,289,500
1 2019 33,006,428,950 15,167,749,859,463 30,005,844,500
2 2020 34,326,686,108 16,046,982,953,100 28,369,162,073
3 2021 35,699,753,552 16,977,182,791,318 26,821,753,232
4 2022 37,127,743,694 17,961,303,777,302 25,358,748,511
5 2023 38,612,853,442 19,002,471,572,934 23,975,544,046
6 2024 33,006,428,950 20,103,993,026,190 18,631,268,666
7 2025 34,326,686,108 21,269,366,674,006 17,615,017,648
8 2026 35,699,753,552 22,502,293,853,961 16,654,198,504
9 2027 37,127,743,694 23,806,690,460,080 15,745,787,676
10 2028 38,612,853,442 25,186,699,380,086 14,886,926,530
11 2029 40,157,367,580 26,646,703,653,604 14,074,912,356
12 2030 41,763,662,283 28,191,340,393,112 13,307,189,864
13 2031 43,434,208,774 29,825,515,511,852 12,581,343,144
14 2032 45,171,577,125 31,554,419,305,479 11,895,088,063
15 2033 46,978,440,210 33,383,542,936,930 11,246,265,078
16 2034 48,857,577,819 35,318,695,876,883 10,632,832,438
17 2035 50,811,880,932 37,366,024,355,186 10,052,859,759
18 2036 52,844,356,169 39,532,030,881,872 9,504,521,954
19 2037 54,958,130,416 41,823,594,899,744 8,986,093,484
20 2038 57,156,455,632 44,247,994,634,144 8,495,942,930
21 2039 59,442,713,857 46,812,930,209,288 8,032,527,861
658,905,589,957
Discount Rate
Pelabuhan Oepoli
0.02
Cash Flow
No. Year Cost Revenue 10.0%
Cost
2018 330,064,289,500 330,064,289,500
1 2019 33,006,428,950 200,369,423,854 30,005,844,500
2 2020 33,666,557,529 209,466,195,697 27,823,601,264
3 2021 34,339,888,680 218,975,960,982 25,800,066,626
4 2022 35,026,686,453 228,917,469,610 23,923,698,144
5 2023 35,727,220,182 239,310,322,731 22,183,792,825
6 2024 33,006,428,950 250,175,011,383 18,631,268,666
7 2025 33,666,557,529 261,532,956,899 17,276,267,309
8 2026 34,339,888,680 273,406,553,143 16,019,811,505
9 2027 35,026,686,453 285,819,210,655 14,854,734,304
10 2028 35,727,220,182 298,795,402,819 13,774,389,991
11 2029 36,441,764,586 312,360,714,107 12,772,616,174
12 2030 37,170,599,878 326,541,890,528 11,843,698,634
13 2031 37,914,011,875 341,366,892,358 10,982,338,733
14 2032 38,672,292,113 356,864,949,271 10,183,623,189
15 2033 39,445,737,955 373,066,617,967 9,442,996,048
16 2034 40,234,652,714 390,003,842,423 8,756,232,699
17 2035 41,039,345,768 407,710,016,869 8,119,415,775
18 2036 41,860,132,684 426,220,051,635 7,528,912,810
19 2037 42,697,335,337 445,570,441,979 6,981,355,515
20 2038 43,551,282,044 465,799,340,045 6,473,620,568
21 2039 44,422,307,685 486,946,630,083 6,002,811,800
633,442,574,779
Discount Rate
10% 20% 30%
830,773,861,345.84 894,413,485,236.99 (19,234,186,652.32)
3.18 1.77 1.01
0.5 0.4 0.4
e
30.0%
Cost Revenue
330,064,289,500 (330,064,289,500)
25,389,560,731 154,130,326,042
19,921,039,958 123,944,494,495
15,630,354,429 99,670,441,958
12,263,816,552 80,150,369,248
9,622,379,141 64,453,227,702
6,838,146,890 51,830,310,953
5,365,315,252 41,679,543,901
4,209,708,890 33,516,765,534
3,303,002,360 26,952,635,914
2,591,586,467 21,674,065,835
2,033,398,612 17,429,283,403
1,595,435,834 14,015,825,284
1,251,803,501 11,270,879,809
982,184,285 9,063,521,348
770,636,901 7,288,465,552
604,653,568 5,861,047,606
474,420,492 4,713,183,975
372,237,617 3,790,125,021
292,063,361 3,047,843,613
229,157,406 2,450,935,164
179,800,426 1,970,928,939
443,805,191,746 446,869,002,856
Pelabuhan Oepoli
0.02
Cash Flow
No. Year Cost Revenue 10.0%
Cost
2018 38,583,792,500 38,583,792,500
1 2019 3,858,379,250 70,386,254,284 3,507,617,500
2 2020 3,935,546,835 73,276,380,225 3,252,518,045
3 2021 4,014,257,772 76,233,659,571 3,015,971,279
4 2022 4,094,542,927 79,259,959,221 2,796,627,913
5 2023 4,176,433,786 82,357,202,431 2,593,236,792
6 2024 3,858,379,250 85,527,370,563 2,177,954,499
7 2025 3,935,546,835 88,772,504,897 2,019,557,808
8 2026 4,014,257,772 92,094,708,502 1,872,680,877
9 2027 4,094,542,927 95,496,148,159 1,736,485,904
10 2028 4,176,433,786 98,979,056,345 1,610,196,020
11 2029 4,259,962,461 102,545,733,290 1,493,090,855
12 2030 4,345,161,711 106,198,549,084 1,384,502,429
13 2031 4,432,064,945 109,939,945,862 1,283,811,343
14 2032 4,520,706,244 113,772,440,052 1,190,443,246
15 2033 4,611,120,369 117,698,624,693 1,103,865,555
16 2034 4,703,342,776 121,721,171,834 1,023,584,424
17 2035 4,797,409,631 125,842,834,996 949,141,920
18 2036 4,893,357,824 130,066,451,723 880,113,417
19 2037 4,991,224,981 134,394,946,210 816,105,168
20 2038 5,091,049,480 138,831,332,007 756,752,065
21 2039 5,192,870,470 143,378,714,822 701,715,551
74,048,049,557
Discount Rate
10% 20% 30%
355,369,361,704.12 376,298,939,397.49 69,705,036,195.67
10.01 6.39 4.40
1.6 1.4 1.4
30.0%
Cost Revenue
38,583,792,500 (38,583,792,500)
2,967,984,038 54,143,272,526
2,328,725,938 43,358,804,867
1,827,154,197 34,698,980,233
1,433,613,293 27,751,114,884
1,124,835,046 22,181,189,096
799,364,394 17,719,236,573
627,193,601 14,147,347,083
492,105,749 11,289,841,872
386,113,741 9,005,248,131
302,950,782 7,179,757,664
237,699,844 5,721,906,010
186,502,955 4,558,252,257
146,333,087 3,629,877,249
114,815,192 2,889,549,510
90,085,766 2,299,434,820
70,682,678 1,829,247,574
55,458,716 1,454,760,513
43,513,762 1,156,604,696
34,141,567 919,304,199
26,787,999 730,500,377
21,018,276 580,329,015
51,879,854,845 228,080,437,634
Pelabuhan Oepoli
0.02
Cash Flow
No. Year Cost Revenue 10.0%
Cost
2018 106,028,417,000 106,028,417,000
1 2019 10,602,841,700 712,158,268 9,638,947,000
2 2020 10,814,898,534 311,136,243 8,937,932,673
3 2021 11,031,196,505 312,413,214 8,287,901,206
4 2022 11,251,820,435 313,706,736 7,685,144,754
5 2023 11,476,856,843 315,017,025 7,126,225,136
6 2024 10,602,841,700 316,344,298 5,985,027,724
7 2025 10,814,898,534 317,688,775 5,549,752,981
8 2026 11,031,196,505 319,050,679 5,146,134,582
9 2027 11,251,820,435 320,430,235 4,771,870,249
10 2028 11,476,856,843 321,827,674 4,424,825,140
11 2029 11,706,393,980 323,243,225 4,103,019,675
12 2030 11,940,521,860 324,677,126 3,804,618,244
13 2031 12,179,332,297 326,129,612 3,527,918,735
14 2032 12,422,918,943 327,600,925 3,271,342,827
15 2033 12,671,377,322 329,091,309 3,033,426,985
16 2034 12,924,804,868 330,601,012 2,812,814,114
17 2035 13,183,300,966 332,130,283 2,608,245,815
18 2036 13,446,966,985 333,679,377 2,418,555,210
19 2037 13,715,906,325 335,248,549 2,242,660,286
20 2038 13,990,224,451 336,838,061 2,079,557,719
21 2039 14,270,028,940 338,448,177 1,928,317,158
203,484,338,054
Discount Rate
10% 20% 30%
(104,220,187,861.95) (104,148,024,585.40) (105,338,594,447.32)
-0.51 -0.65 -0.73
Err:523 Err:523 Err:523
e
30.0%
Cost Revenue
106,028,417,000 (106,028,417,000)
8,156,032,077 547,814,053
6,399,348,245 184,104,286
5,021,027,085 142,199,915
3,939,575,097 109,837,448
3,091,051,230 84,843,244
2,196,656,570 65,539,013
1,723,530,539 50,628,890
1,352,308,577 39,112,255
1,061,042,114 30,216,442
832,509,967 23,344,784
653,200,128 18,036,512
512,510,869 13,935,786
402,123,913 10,767,792
315,512,609 8,320,285
247,556,047 6,429,336
194,236,283 4,968,331
152,400,776 3,839,472
119,575,993 2,967,215
93,821,164 2,293,207
73,613,529 1,772,369
57,758,307 1,369,878
142,566,049,809 (104,677,446,366)
Pelabuhan Tj.Mocoh
0.04 diambl dari shet ='PEREKONOMIAN KOTA TJ PINANG'!O27
Cash Flow
No. Year Cost Revenue 10.0%
Cost
2018 70,200,295,000 70,200,295,000
1 2019 7,020,029,500 15,167,749,859 6,381,845,000
2 2020 7,300,830,680 16,046,982,953,100 6,033,744,364
3 2021 7,592,863,907 16,977,182,791,318 5,704,631,035
4 2022 7,896,578,463 17,961,303,777,302 5,393,469,342
5 2023 8,212,441,602 19,002,471,572,934 5,099,280,105
6 2024 8,540,939,266 20,103,993,026,190 4,821,137,554
7 2025 8,882,576,837 21,269,366,674,006 4,558,166,415
8 2026 9,237,879,910 22,502,293,853,961 4,309,539,156
9 2027 9,607,395,107 23,806,690,460,080 4,074,473,383
10 2028 9,991,690,911 25,186,699,380,086 3,852,229,381
11 2029 10,391,358,547 26,646,703,653,604 3,642,107,778
12 2030 10,807,012,889 28,191,340,393,112 3,443,447,354
13 2031 11,239,293,405 29,825,515,511,852 3,255,622,953
14 2032 11,688,865,141 31,554,419,305,479 3,078,043,519
15 2033 12,156,419,747 33,383,542,936,930 2,910,150,236
16 2034 12,642,676,536 35,318,695,876,883 2,751,414,769
17 2035 13,148,383,598 37,366,024,355,186 2,601,337,600
18 2036 13,674,318,942 39,532,030,881,872 2,459,446,458
19 2037 14,221,291,700 41,823,594,899,744 2,325,294,833
20 2038 14,790,143,368 44,247,994,634,144 2,198,460,569
21 2039 15,381,749,102 46,812,930,209,288 2,078,544,538
149,094,136,801
Discount Rate
Kriteria Penilaian
10% 20% 30%
81,224,841,829,209 86,513,624,659,657 14,960,852,533,459 +
1,217.10 2,066.74 1,870.61 >0
13.3 12.1 11.1 >Discount Rate
30.0%
Revenue
(70,200,295,000)
11,667,499,892
9,495,256,185,266
7,727,438,685,170
6,288,751,716,432
5,117,918,078,966
4,165,069,101,800
3,389,620,614,302
2,758,544,366,991
2,244,961,277,540
1,826,996,584,851
1,486,848,149,433
1,210,028,216,693
984,746,348,006
801,407,237,065
652,202,022,298
530,775,688,335
431,956,390,345
351,535,172,504
286,086,698,263
232,823,356,878
189,476,532,244
49,924,433,096,028
Kesimpulan
Pelabuhan Tj.Mocoh
0.04
Cash Flow
No. Year Cost Revenue 10.0%
Cost
2018 70,200,295,000 70,200,295,000
1 2019 7,020,029,500 1,051,476,083 6,381,845,000
2 2020 7,300,830,680 1,100,553,818 6,033,744,364
3 2021 7,592,863,907 1,152,446,607 5,704,631,035
4 2022 7,896,578,463 1,207,316,131 5,393,469,342
5 2023 8,212,441,602 1,265,333,359 5,099,280,105
6 2024 8,540,939,266 1,326,679,086 4,821,137,554
7 2025 8,882,576,837 1,391,544,490 4,558,166,415
8 2026 9,237,879,910 1,460,131,735 4,309,539,156
9 2027 9,607,395,107 1,532,654,599 4,074,473,383
10 2028 9,991,690,911 1,609,339,143 3,852,229,381
11 2029 10,391,358,547 1,690,424,414 3,642,107,778
12 2030 10,807,012,889 1,776,163,194 3,443,447,354
13 2031 11,239,293,405 1,866,822,790 3,255,622,953
14 2032 11,688,865,141 1,962,685,863 3,078,043,519
15 2033 12,156,419,747 2,064,051,315 2,910,150,236
16 2034 12,642,676,536 2,171,235,224 2,751,414,769
17 2035 13,148,383,598 2,284,571,824 2,601,337,600
18 2036 13,674,318,942 2,404,414,553 2,459,446,458
19 2037 14,221,291,700 2,531,137,156 2,325,294,833
20 2038 14,790,143,368 2,665,134,852 2,198,460,569
21 2039 15,381,749,102 - 2,078,544,538
149,094,136,801
Discount Rate
Kriteria Penilaian
10% 20% 30%
(64,060,613,302) (63,725,430,538) (68,564,108,663) +
-0.39 -1.54 -2.48 >0
-0.1 -0.2 Err:523 >Discount Rate
30.0%
Revenue
(70,200,295,000)
808,827,756
651,215,277
524,554,669
422,714,937
340,791,062
274,856,346
221,765,319
178,996,781
144,528,709
116,738,485
94,323,277
76,236,445
61,636,719
49,847,555
40,324,613
32,629,712
26,409,965
21,381,049
17,313,784
14,023,362
-
(66,081,179,178)
Kesimpulan
Pelabuhan DOMPAK
0.04
Cash Flow
No. Year Cost Revenue 10.0%
Cost
2018 34,009,800,000 34,009,800,000
1 2019 3,400,980,000 15,167,749,859 3,091,800,000
2 2020 3,537,019,200 16,046,982,953,100 2,923,156,364
3 2021 3,678,499,968 16,977,182,791,318 2,763,711,471
4 2022 3,825,639,967 17,961,303,777,302 2,612,963,573
5 2023 3,978,665,565 19,002,471,572,934 2,470,438,287
6 2024 4,137,812,188 20,103,993,026,190 2,335,687,108
7 2025 4,303,324,676 21,269,366,674,006 2,208,285,993
8 2026 4,475,457,663 22,502,293,853,961 2,087,834,029
9 2027 4,654,475,969 23,806,690,460,080 1,973,952,173
10 2028 4,840,655,008 25,186,699,380,086 1,866,282,055
11 2029 5,034,281,208 26,646,703,653,604 1,764,484,852
12 2030 5,235,652,456 28,191,340,393,112 1,668,240,223
13 2031 5,445,078,555 29,825,515,511,852 1,577,245,302
14 2032 5,662,881,697 31,554,419,305,479 1,491,213,740
15 2033 5,889,396,965 33,383,542,936,930 1,409,874,809
16 2034 6,124,972,843 35,318,695,876,883 1,332,972,547
17 2035 6,369,971,757 37,366,024,355,186 1,260,264,953
18 2036 6,624,770,627 39,532,030,881,872 1,191,523,228
19 2037 6,889,761,452 41,823,594,899,744 1,126,531,052
20 2038 7,165,351,911 44,247,994,634,144 1,065,083,904
21 2039 7,451,965,987 46,812,930,209,288 1,006,988,418
72,231,345,663
Discount Rate
Kriteria Penilaian
10% 20% 30%
81,261,032,324,209 86,549,815,154,657 14,997,043,028,459 +
2,512.74 4,267.81 3,863.97 >0
19.4 17.7 16.3 >Discount Rate
30.0%
Revenue
(34,009,800,000)
11,667,499,892
9,495,256,185,266
7,727,438,685,170
6,288,751,716,432
5,117,918,078,966
4,165,069,101,800
3,389,620,614,302
2,758,544,366,991
2,244,961,277,540
1,826,996,584,851
1,486,848,149,433
1,210,028,216,693
984,746,348,006
801,407,237,065
652,202,022,298
530,775,688,335
431,956,390,345
351,535,172,504
286,086,698,263
232,823,356,878
189,476,532,244
49,960,623,591,028
Kesimpulan
Pelabuhan DOMPAK
0.04
Cash Flow
No. Year Cost Revenue 10.0%
Cost
2019 34,009,800,000 34,009,800,000
1 2020 3,400,980,000 3,722,263,760 3,091,800,000
2 2021 3,537,019,200 3,833,640,380 2,923,156,364
3 2022 3,678,499,968 3,948,544,774 2,763,711,471
4 2023 3,825,639,967 4,067,092,010 2,612,963,573
5 2024 3,978,665,565 4,189,389,656 2,470,438,287
6 2025 4,137,812,188 4,315,561,136 2,335,687,108
7 2026 4,303,324,676 4,445,729,018 2,208,285,993
8 2027 4,475,457,663 4,580,016,726 2,087,834,029
9 2028 4,654,475,969 4,718,563,112 1,973,952,173
10 2029 4,840,655,008 4,861,486,566 1,866,282,055
11 2030 5,034,281,208 5,008,945,546 1,764,484,852
12 2031 5,235,652,456 5,161,070,548 1,668,240,223
13 2032 5,445,078,555 5,318,011,246 1,577,245,302
14 2033 5,662,881,697 5,479,926,098 1,491,213,740
15 2034 5,889,396,965 5,646,964,350 1,409,874,809
16 2035 6,124,972,843 5,819,296,138 1,332,972,547
17 2036 6,369,971,757 5,997,082,386 1,260,264,953
18 2037 6,624,770,627 6,180,499,874 1,191,523,228
19 2038 6,889,761,452 6,369,726,238 1,126,531,052
20 2039 7,165,351,911 6,564,945,330 1,065,083,904
72,231,345,663
Discount Rate
Kriteria Penilaian
10% 20% 30%
(14,145,159,272) (13,133,638,928) (28,370,307,960) +
0.07 -0.66 -1.57 >0
0.0 -0.1 -0.1 >Discount Rate
30.0%
Revenue
(34,009,800,000)
2,863,279,815
2,268,426,260
1,797,243,866
1,424,001,964
1,128,324,438
894,081,605
708,499,456
561,461,841
444,958,592
352,643,243
279,492,034
221,523,379
175,584,296
139,177,096
110,322,669
87,453,425
69,327,099
54,959,562
43,570,954
34,543,319
(20,350,925,084)
Kesimpulan