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Krisis Nilai Tukar/ EXCHANGE RATE CURRENCY

Krisis mata uang yang telah mengguncang Negara-negara Asia pada awal tahun 1997, akhirnya
menerpa perekonomian Indonesia. Nilai tukar rupiah yang semula dikaitkan dengan dolar AS
secara tetap mulai diguncang spekulan yang menyebabkan keguncangan pada perekonomian
yang juga sangat tergantung pada pinjaman luar negeri sector swasta. Pemerintah menghadapi
krisis nilai tukar ini dengan melakukan intervensi di pasar untuk menyelamatkan cadangan
devisayang semakin menyusut. Pemerintah menerapkan kebijakan nilai tukar yang mengambang
bebas sebagai pengganti kebijakan nilai tukar yang mengambang terkendali.

TRANSLATE
The currency crisis that has shaken Asian countries in early 1997, finally hit the Indonesian
economy. The rupiah exchange rate originally associated with the US dollar is steadily buoyed
by speculators that cause shocks to the economy that is also heavily dependent on private sector
external loans. The government is facing this exchange rate crisis by intervening in the market to
save the shrinking foreign reserves. The government implements a free-floating exchange rate
policy in place of a controlled floating exchange rate policy.

Kurs Rupiah Tembus 14.200 per Dolar AS, Ini Tiga Penyebabnya

Nilai tukar rupiah menembus level 14.203 per dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada
perdagangan Senin (21/5), atau melemah 0,33% dari level penutupan perdagangan akhir pekan
lalu. Bahkan, bank sudah ada yang menetapkan kurs jual di atas 14.300 per dolar AS. Terdapat
tiga faktor yang disebut-sebut sebagai penyebab utama kuatnya tekanan terhadap nilai tukar
rupiah.

Dalam analisis yang dilansir akhir pekan lalu, Tim Ekonom BCA menyebut ada tiga hal
yang menyebabkan tekanan kuat terhadap nilai tukar rupiah, yaitu kenaikan bunga acuan AS,
kenaikan harga minyak, serta melemahnya pertumbuhan ekspor dalam beberapa bulan ini.
Sepanjang tahun ini (year to date), nilai tukar rupiah telah melemah 4,77% terhadap dolar AS.

Meski begitu, Kepala Ekonom BCA David Sumual menilai BI tetap menjaga volatilitas
nilai tukar rupiah. Ke depan, ia menilai BI kemungkinan harus menaikkan kembali bunga acuan
BI 7 Days Repo Rate untuk meredam pelemahan. “Itu kenapa mungkin BI 7 Days Repo Rate
harus naik lagi dalam beberapa bulan mendatang,” kata dia.

Selain rupiah, mata uang Asia lainnya juga mengalami pelemahan. Hal itu seiring dengan
berlanjutnya perpindahan dana asing dari instrumen investasi, terutama di pasar keuangan
negara-negara ekonomi berkembang ke surat berharga AS (US Treasury). Pemicunya, kenaikan
imbal hasil US Treasury seiring ekspektasi kenaikan bunga acuan AS.

Imbal hasil US Treasury tenor 10 tahun kembali bergerak di atas 3% sejak pekan lalu.
Adapun indeks dolar AS tercatat berada di level tertingginya sejak November 2017. Tekanan
arus keluar berisiko berlanjut seiring dengan potensi kenaikan bunga acuan AS pada Juni
mendatang.
Won Korea Selatan tercatat melemah paling dalam pada perdagangan di pasar spot Senin
(21/5) ini, yaitu sebesar 0,72%, diikuti yen Jepang 0,45%. Sementara itu, nilai tukar rupiah
sempat melemah 0,33% ke level 14.203 per dolar AS, sebelum kembali ke bawah 14.200 per
dolar AS. Berdasarkan pantauan Katadata.co.id, nilai jual dolar AS di perbankan tercatat lebih
lemah, yaitu berkisar Rp 14.200-14.300 per dolar AS.

TRANSLATE

The rupiah exchange rate broke through the level of 14.203 per US dollar (US) in
trading Monday (21/5), or weakened 0.33% from last weekend's closing level. In fact, the bank
already exists that sets the selling rate above 14,300 per US dollar. There are three factors that
are mentioned as the main cause of the strong pressure on the rupiah exchange rate.
In an analysis released last week, the BCA Economist Team said there were three things that
caused strong pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, the rise in US benchmark interest rates,
rising oil prices, and weakening export growth in recent months. Throughout this year (year to
date), the rupiah has weakened 4.77% against the US dollar.

Nevertheless, Chief Economist of BCA David Sumual considers BI to maintain the


volatility of the rupiah exchange rate. Looking ahead, he thinks BI may have to raise the BI rate
7 Days Repo Rate to reduce the weakening. "That's why maybe BI 7 Days Repo Rate should rise
again in the coming months," he said.
In addition to the rupiah, other Asian currencies also weakened. This is in line with the
continuing movement of foreign funds from investment instruments, especially in the emerging
economies of emerging-market economies to US Treasury. The trigger, the rise in US Treasury
yields in line with expectations of US interest rates rise.
Yields on US 10-year Treasury tenor back above 3% since last week. The US dollar index was
recorded at its highest level since November 2017. Pressure outflow risks continue along with
the potential increase in US benchmark interest in June.
South Korea's won hit the most in the spot market on Monday (21/5), at 0.72%, followed by the
0.45% Japanese yen. Meanwhile, the rupiah exchange rate weakened 0.33% to the level of
14,203 per US dollar, before returning to below 14,200 per US dollar. Based on Katadata.co.id's
observation, the selling value of US dollar in the banking system is weaker, which is around Rp
14,200-14,300 per US dollar.
Rupiah Terus Melemah, BI: Kebijakan Moneter Sudah Tepat

Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS terus melemah, meski Bank Indonesia (BI) menaikkan suku
bunga acuan BI 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 4,5 persen.
Berdasarkan kurs referensi Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) nilai tukar rupiah pada
Senin (21/5) berada di posisi Rp 14.176 per dolar AS.

Gubernur BI Agus Martowardojo menilai kebijakan moneter yang diambil sudah tepat. "Kita
melihat sekarang ini dengan menaikkan 25 basis poin dan didukung oleh bauran kebijakan yang
lain, ini konsisten untuk menjaga stabilitas sistem keuangan Indonesia di tengah situasi dunia
yang sedang penuh ketidakpastian. Namun, tentu kita tidak bisa lepas dari kondisi nilai tukar
terhadap mata uang dunia lainnya, khususnya dengan dolar AS," ujar Agus di kantor Kemenkeu
pada Senin (21/5).

Agus menjelaskan, pelemahan rupiah diakibatkan tekanan eksternal, terutama kebijakan yang
diambil oleh Amerika Serikat (AS). Hal itu pun memberikan sentimen positif pada dolar AS dan
menyebabkan mata uang negara lain melemah. Kondisi itu tak hanya berdampak pada rupiah,
tetapi juga mata uang negara lain.

Agus juga menampik kondisi pelemahan rupiah serupa dengan kondisi ketika terjadi krisis pada
1998 maupun 2008. Ia mengaku, kondisi sistem keuangan Indonesia sudah lebih baik. "Lihat
dari cadangan devisa, lihat dari bahwa sekarang sudah ada perbankan yang sehat, yang punya
permodalan 22 persen lebih, NPL di bawah tiga persen, kita juga lihat sudah ada Lembaga
Penjamin Simpanan (LPS) yang menjamin deposit. Kalau seandainya mau dibandingkan dengan
kondisi 10 atau 20 tahun yang lalu, kondisi kita sekarang baik dan tidak perlu dikhawatirkan,"
ujar Agus.

Ekonom Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Bhima Yudistira
mengatakan, pelemahan kurs pekan ini bisa sampai ke level Rp 14.300 per dolar AS
Dari sisi fiskal, kinerja ekspor memang perlu didorong melalui berbagai insentif seperti tax
holiday bagi perusahaan yang berorientasi ekspor. Sementara itu, dari sisi moneter bisa
diterbitkan aturan tentang kewajiban devisa hasil ekspor ditahan di bank dalam negeri dalam
kurun waktu minimal 6-9 bulan seperti yang dilakukan Thailand.

Karena cukup mendesak, lanjutnya, bentuk paling tepat adalah Perppu UU No 24/1999 tentang
Lalu Lintas Devisa dan Sistem Nilai Tukar. "Sejak awal tahun Thailand berhasil mengalami
apresiasi 1,6 persen (YTD)," ungkapnya.

Menurut Bhima, langkah jangka pendek selain menaikkan suku bunga acuan adalah bunga
kupon surat utang pemerintah untuk menahan keluarnya dana asing. Beberapa seri surat utang
tidak laku karena kuponnya kecil. Jika dinaikkan, investor masih melihat SBN instrumen yang
menarik.

Di sisi lain, efek kenaikan bunga acuan BI bisa berdampak ke naiknya bunga kredit perbankan
dalam 2-3 bulan ke depan. Rata-rata bunga kredit 11,20 persen per Maret 2018. Jika BI 7-days
Reserve Repo Rate naik 25 bps, bunga kredit bisa naik jadi 11,45 persen. "Selain itu, tidak
menutup kemungkinan BI akan naikkan bunga acuan hingga 50 bps pada tahun ini," ujarnya.
Rupiah Melemah Terhadap Hampir Semua Mata Uang
Nilai tukar Rupiah hari ini kembali melemah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Akan
tetapi pelemahan rupiah bukan hanya terhadap dolar tapi juga mata uang lainnya.

Melansir data RTI, Jumat (25/5/2018), hingga pukul 10.30 WIB, rupiah melemah 0,035
ke posisi Rp 14.145. Rupiah juga terlihat melemah terhadap dolar Australia sebesar
0,23% ke Rp 10.701.

Dibandingkan mata uang China, yuan, rupiah juga melemah 0,18% menjadi Rp 2.214.
Begitu juga terhadap mata uang euro, turun 0,16% ke posisi Rp 16.564 dan terhadap
yen Jepang turun 0,28% ke Rp 129,1

Bahkan rupiah juga melemah terhadap mata uang negara Asean. Terhadap ringgit
Malaysia turun 0,25% ke Rp 3.548. Lalu terhadap dolar Singapura turun 0,21% ke Rp
10.549 dan terhadap bath Thailand turun 0,16% ke Rp 441.

TRANSLATE
Rupiah Weakens Against Almost All Currencies
Today's rupiah exchange rate weakened against the US dollar (US). However, the weakening
other rupiah is not only against the dollar but also other currencies.
RTI data launches, Friday (25/05/2018), until at 10:30 pm, the rupiah weakened 0.035 to the
position of Rp 14,145. The rupiah was also seen weakening against the Australian dollar by
0.23% to Rp 10,701.
Compared to the Chinese currency, yuan, the rupiah also weakened 0.18% to Rp 2,214. So
also against the euro currency, down 0.16% to the position of Rp 16,564 and the Japanese yen
fell 0.28% to Rp 129.1
Even the rupiah also weakened against the currency of Asean countries. Against the Malaysian
ringgit fell 0.25% to Rp 3,548. Then against the Singapore dollar fell 0.21% to Rp 10,549 and
against the Thai bath fell 0.16% to Rp 441.
TRANSLATE

The rupiah against the US dollar continued to weaken, although Bank Indonesia (BI)
raised its BI Rate 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 percent. Based on the
reference rate of Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor), the rupiah exchange rate on
Monday (21/5) was at Rp 14,176 per US dollar.

BI Governor Agus Martowardojo said that the monetary policy taken is appropriate.
"We see today by raising 25 basis points and supported by other policy mixes, it is consistent to
maintain the stability of Indonesia's financial system amid the uncertain world situation, but of
course we can not escape from the condition of the exchange rate against the world currency
others, especially with the US dollar, "said Agus at the Ministry of Finance on Monday (21/5).

Agus explained, the weakening of the rupiah caused by external pressure, especially the
policy taken by the United States (US). It also gives a positive sentiment on the US dollar and
causes other countries' currencies to weaken. Conditions that not only affect the rupiah, but also
the currency of other countries.
Agus also denied the weakening of rupiah conditions similar to the conditions when the
crisis occurred in 1998 and 2008. He admitted, the condition of Indonesia's financial system has
been better. "See from the foreign exchange reserves, see from now that there is a healthy
banking, which has 22 percent more capital, NPL below 3 percent, we also see there is a Deposit
Insurance Agency (LPS) that guarantees the deposit If if compared with the conditions 10 or 20
years ago, our condition is now good and not to worry about, "said Agus.
Bhima Yudistira. Institute for Economic Economy and Finance Economist (Indef), said the
weakening of the exchange rate this week could reach Rp 14,300 per US dollar.
From a fiscal perspective, export performance should be encouraged through various
incentives such as tax holiday for export-oriented companies. Meanwhile, from the monetary
side can be issued a regulation on foreign exchange liabilities of exported products held at a
domestic bank within a period of at least 6-9 months as did Thailand.
Because quite urgent, he continued, the most appropriate form is the Perppu Act No.
24/1999 on Foreign Exchange Traffic and Exchange Rate System. "Since the beginning of the
year Thailand has experienced an appreciation of 1.6 percent (YTD)," he said.
According to Bhima, short-term measures other than raising the benchmark interest rate
are government bond coupon interest rates to curb the release of foreign funds. Some of the
series of bonds do not sell because the coupon is small. If raised, investors still see SBN an
attractive instrument.

On the other hand, the effect of BI's interest rate increase could affect the rise of bank
credit interest in the next 2-3 months. The average loan interest rate is 11.20 percent as of March
2018. If the BI 7-days Reserve Repo Rate rises 25 bps, credit interest may rise to 11.45 percent.
"In addition, it is possible to increase BI interest rate by 50 bps this year," he said.
Rupiah Melemah, Pengusaha Tahan Harga Makanan
& Minuman Hingga Lebaran (Rupiah Weaken,
Entrepreneurs Hold Food & Beverage Prices Up To
Lebaran)
 Pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) terus
berlanjut sejak akhir Januarii lalu hingga melewati Rp 14 .000 pada Mei ini.
Meski mengalami tekanan, pengusaha belum akan menaikkan harga jual
produk
makanan dan minuman hingga hari raya Idul Fitri pada pertengahan Juni
mendatang.
 Ketua Gabungan Pengusaha Makanan dan Minuman Seluruh Indonesia
( Gapmmi) Adhi S Lukman mengatakan meski pengusaha mengalami pukulan
atas pelemahan rupiah, mereka masih dapat menahan harga. Sebagian besar
pengusaha sudah menyetok bahan baku dan bahan jadi sebelum Maret.

 "Saat ini masih bertahan untuk tidak menaikkkan harga produk, nanti setelah
lebaran akan kami evaluasi kembali," kata Adhi saat dihubungi Katadata.co.id,
Jumat (25/5).

 Adhi mengatakan harga pada momen bulan puasa Ramadhan dan Lebaran tetap
dijaga karena permintaan produk makanan dan minuman sedang meningkat.
Selain itu, apabila harga produk makanan dan minuman mengalami kenaikan,
dikhawatirkan akan mempengaruhi daya beli dan merusak permintaan.

 "Pengusaha sengaja memberikan harga yang bagus, karena berharap besar


terhadap peningkatan penjualan pada momen Ramadhan dan Lebaran," kata
dia.

 Adhi mengatakan apabila pelemahan rupiah terhadap dolar AS terus berlanjut


dalam rentang Rp 14.500-15.000, harga produk makanan dan minuman
diperkirakan naik 3-7%.

 Saat ini industri makanan dan minuman masish bergantung impor baik berupa
bahan baku dan bahan jadi maupun kemasan plastik dan kaleng. Produk-produk
ini mengalami kenaikan seiring melemahnya rupiah dan meningkatnya harga
minyak dunia.
 Adhi mengatakan, selain menaikkan harga sebenarnya pengusaha masih
memiliki opsi menyesuaikan diri dari pelemahan rupiah. Opsi yang dapat
dipertimbangkan yakni mengubah kemasan menjadi ukuran lebih kecil tanpa
menaikkan harga atau menggunakan bahan baku dan bahan jadi dari pasar
lokal.

 Namun kedua opsi tersebut tak mudah diimplementasikan. "Mengubah ukuran


akan perlu izin dari BPOM," kata dia.
Sementara mengganti bahan baku dan bahan jadi yang lebih murah menjadi
tantangan sendiri karena perlu riset dan formula sehingga tidak mengubah cita
rasa makanan. "Konsumen juga belum tentu cocok," kata dia.

 Direktur PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk Franciscus Welirang mengatakan


pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS hingga saat ini belum
mempengaruhi bisnis perusahaannya. Franciscus mengatakan Indofood telah
mengantisipasi dampak pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah dengan manajemen resiko
perusahaan.

 "Pelemahan rupiah ini terjadi secara bertahap dan tidak langsung melonjak
signifikan. Selain itu kami di perusahaan biasanya sudah memiliki manajemen
resiko untuk mengantisipasi hal tersebut," kata Franciscus.

 Sementara itu Direktur PT MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPB) Boga Fetty
Kwartati mengatakan kemungkinan MAP akan menaikkan harga jual karena
pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah cukup menekan perusahaan.

 "Depresiasi rupiah diatas Rp 14.000 dapat berdampak terhadap harga jual


produk," kata Fetty Kwartati, beberapa waktu lalu. Namun, dia tidak merinci
seberapa besar kenaikan harga jual yang akan diterapkan perusahaan.

 MAP Boga merupakan pemilik lisensi jaringan gerai Starbucks, Cold Stone,
Pizza Marzano, Krispy Kreme Doughnut dan Godiva di Indonesia.

TRANSLATE

• The weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar (US) has continued since the
end of January and past the Rp 14,000 this May. Despite the pressure, employers
will not raise the selling price of the product
food and drinks until Idul Fitri holiday in mid-June.
• Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Entrepreneurs Association
(Gapmmi) Adhi S Lukman said that although businessmen suffered a blow to the
weakening of the rupiah, they were still able to withhold prices. Most
entrepreneurs have already paid off raw materials and finished materials before
March.
• "We still survive not to increase the price of the product, later after Lebaran we
will re-evaluate," said Adhi when contacted by Katadata.co.id, Friday (25/5).

• Adhi said prices at the moment of fasting month of Ramadhan and Lebaran
remain to be maintained as demand for food and beverage products is on the rise.
In addition, if prices of food and beverage products increase, it is feared will affect
purchasing power and damage demand.
• "Entrepreneurs deliberately give a good price, because they expect big sales
increase in the moment of Ramadhan and Lebaran," he said.
• Adhi said that if the rupiah depreciation against the US dollar continues in the
range of Rp 14,500-15,000, the price of food and beverage products is expected to
rise by 3-7%.
• Currently, the food and beverage industries are imported, both in the form of raw
materials and finished materials and plastic packaging and cans. These products
have increased due to the weakening of the rupiah and rising world oil prices.
• Adhi said, in addition to raising the actual price entrepreneurs still have the
option of adjusting from the weakening of the rupiah. Options that can be
considered are changing the packaging to a smaller size without raising prices or
using raw materials and finished materials from the local market.
• But both options are not easy to implement. "Resizing will need permission from
BPOM," he said.
While substituting less expensive raw materials and materials becomes a challenge
on its own because it requires research and formulas that do not change the taste of
food. "Consumers are also not necessarily suitable," he said.

• But both options are not easy to implement. "Resizing will need permission from
BPOM," he said. While substituting less expensive raw materials and materials
becomes a challenge on its own because it requires research and formulas that do
not change the taste of food. "Consumers are also not necessarily suitable," he said.
• Director of PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk Franciscus Welirang said the
weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar has not affected the company's
business. Franciscus said Indofood had anticipated the impact of the weakening of
the rupiah exchange rate with the company's risk management
• "The weakening of the rupiah is incrementally and indirectly jumped
significantly, and we at companies usually have risk management to anticipate it,"
Franciscus said.
• Meanwhile, Director of PT MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPB) Boga Fetty
Kwartati said the possibility of MAP will raise the selling price because the
weakening of rupiah exchange rate is enough to depress the company.
• "Depreciation of the rupiah above Rp 14,000 could affect the selling price of the
product," said Fetty Kwartati, some time ago. However, he did not specify how
much the increase in the selling price to be applied by the company.
• MAP Boga is the licensee of Starbucks, Cold Stone, Pizza Marzano, Krispy
Kreme Donut and Godiva in Indonesia.