California

Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
August 2019
Sales
 Sales dip slightly from July,
but remain above 400k

700,000 California, August 2019 Sales: 406,100 Units, -4.1% YTD, 1.6% YTY
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-09

Jan-11

Jan-13
Sep-13

Jan-15
Sep-15

Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
Sep-11
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3
 California home sales have the first back-to
back yearly gain since April 2018
25% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
4
 Bay Area sales decreased both monthly
and yearly in August
30% Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%
-3.8%
-10%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5
 So. California sales
fall back slightly
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%
30%
20%
YoY % chg.

10%
0% -0.4%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
 Central Valley sales slowed
after solid increase in July
30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%
-2.3%
-10%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
 Sales constrained by tight supply, particularly
at the low end
August 2019 (YTY% Chg.) Share by Price Segment
0% 10% 20% 30%
10% 6.6%
5% 2.9% 3.1% $0 - $299k 12.5%
1.5%
0% $300 - $399k 15.8%
-5% -2.3% $400 - $499k 14.0%
-10% -6.6%
$500 - $749k 25.6%
-15%
-15.0% $750 - $999k 12.2%
-20%
$1,000 - $1,999k 12.4%
$2,000k+ 3.5%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8
Sales by Region
August 2019 Home Sales Growth
August 2019 Home Sales by Region by Region
0.0%
-1.0% -0.4%
Other Counties
-2.0%
Central 8% -1.9%
-3.0% -2.3%
Coast
-4.0%
4% -3.8%
Central -5.0%
Valley -6.0%
23% -7.0% -6.4%

S.F. Bay
Southern
Area
California
19%
46%

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
9
 Pending sales dipped from last
month but still grew above last year
10%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

5% 4.4%
0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

page
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales 10
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price
 California median price
reached an all-time high

$700,000 California, August 2019: $617,410, 1.5% MTM, 3.6% YTY

$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
12
 Single-family homes had the largest
gain in 10 months
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
May-10
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17
Jan-05

May-06
Jan-07

May-08
Jan-09

Jan-11

May-12
Jan-13

May-14
Jan-15

May-16
Jan-17

May-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
13
 Condo/Townhome median price was
virtually unchanged from last year
$600,000 California, August 2018: $470,000, August 2019: $468,000
$500,000
Median Price

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0

Mar-13
Feb-09

Apr-10

Feb-16

Apr-17
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06

Sep-09

Sep-16
May-07

Nov-10
Dec-07
Jul-08

Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12

Oct-13
May-14

Nov-17
Jun-18
Jan-19
Aug-19
Dec-14
Jul-15
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
 Price/Square Foot slightly down
from last month and inched up from last year

$400
August 2019: $287, -1.0% MTM, 1.4% YTY

$350
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
 Sales price-to-list Price ratio dipped slightly
as market ended its peak season
August 2019: 98.7%, -0.3% MTM, -0.2% YTY

100%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

98%

96%

94%

92%

90%

Jul-17
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-18

Jul-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
Top percentile saw decline in price growth

California Year-over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (August 2019)

7% 6.3%
6% 5.5%
5%
4%
2.9%
3%
2%
1% 0.3%
0.0%
0%
-1%
-2% -1.3%
-1.9% -1.6%
-3% -2.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
 Mortgage payment continued to drop;
rates lowest in 34 months
30 Yr. FRM California Median Price vs. Mortgage
6% Payment
20%
5% 4.55% 15%
4% 3.62% 10%

YTY% Chg.
5%
3%
0%
2% -5%
1% -10%

May-18
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
May-16

May-17

May-19
0%
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
 Mortgage payment continued to drop;
rates lowest in 34 months
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
20%
15%
YTY% Chg.

10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% -7.35%
Jan-16
Mar-16

Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17

Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18

Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19

Jul-19
May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
 Growth of list price vs. sales price

40%
Listing Price Sales Price
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Jan-19
May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Sep-18
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
 Market Velocity

100.0%
150.0%

-150.0%
-100.0%
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Price Growth

Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Market Velocity (6 month trailing average)

Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
California Market Velocity and Price Growth

Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Market Velocity

SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
50.0%
40.0%

-50.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%

-30.0%

21

Existing SFR Median Price

Growth
page
 Inventory &
Active Listings
 Inventory index down due primarily
to drop in active listings
18.0 August 2018: 3.3 Months; August 2019: 3.2 Months
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
23
 Supply improved only at the
upper end of the market

August 2019
Active Listing
20%
10.8%
10%
4.5%
0%
-3.8%
-10%
-8.9%
-14.3% -12.8%
-20% -17.5%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
24
 Regional inventory mostly flat

9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.3
3.0 2.8
2.0 2.5
1.0
0.0
Jul-12
Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions

California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment

12 10.8
10 9.2
8
6 5.55.5
3.43.3 3.44.0 3.94.3 3.3 3.2
4 3.13.1 3.12.9 3.12.8 2.83.0
2
0

Aug-18 Aug-19

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
 Active listings had the largest drop since
Dec 2017
Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%
-8.9%
-20%
Jul-16
Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
May-15
Jul-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-18
Jul-18

Nov-18
Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Sep-16

May-17
Jul-17

Nov-17
Jan-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

Sep-18

May-19
Jul-19
Jan-19
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
27
 Active listings decreased in all regions except
the Bay Area
Aug-18 Aug-19
35,000 32,007
30,000 27,577
Active Listings

25,000
20,000
15,000 12,395
10,560
10,000 7,697 7,720
5,000 2,854 2,845
0
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
28
 Active listings in SoCal & Central Valley
dropped significantly
August 2019

10% Sales Active Listings

Year-to-Year % Chg

0.3%
0%
-0.4% -0.3%
-3.8% -2.3%
-6.4%
-10%

-13.8% -14.8%
-20%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
29
Active listings tightened up

California Active Listings by Month

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

2018 2019

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
30
Market Competitiveness
 Time on market up as market ends its
peak season
California, August 2019: 23.0 Days
80
70
60
DAYS ON MARKET

50
40
30
20
10
0
May-06
Jan-05
Sep-05

Jan-07
Sep-07

Jan-09
Sep-09

Jan-11
Sep-11

Jan-13
Sep-13

Jan-15
Sep-15

Jan-17
Sep-17

Jan-19
May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
Median time on market up in most percentiles

California Median Time on Market by Quintile

35
31
30
25 24 25 25
25 22
21 2120 20 2122 20 20 20
22
20
22
20 19 18
15
10
5
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Aug-18 Aug-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
33
 Sales-to-list price ratio down at top percentile

California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile

100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
99.6%
99.5% 99.2%
98.9% 99.1% 99.0%
99.0%
98.5%
98.0% 97.7%
97.5%
97.0%
96.5%
96.0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Aug-18 Aug-19

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
 Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

15%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%
May-12

May-17
Jun-09

Apr-10

Aug-13

Jun-14

Apr-15

Aug-18

Jun-19
Jan-09

Nov-09

Jul-11
Sep-10

Dec-11

Oct-12
Mar-13

Jan-14

Nov-14

Jul-16
Sep-15
Feb-16

Dec-16

Oct-17
Mar-18

Jan-19
Feb-11

Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
35
 Reduced-Price Listings

Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 41.0%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3%
50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%
9/1/2012

5/1/2016
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012

1/1/2013
5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016

9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
36
 Growth in Reduced-Price Listings

Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: +1.1%

Growth in Median Reduction Amount: 0.0%
8% 0.05%
6% 0.00%
4% -0.05%
-0.10%
2%
-0.15%
0% -0.20%
-2% -0.25%
-4% -0.30%

1/1/2017

7/1/2018
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015

1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016

3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017

1/1/2018
3/1/2018
5/1/2018

9/1/2018

1/1/2019
3/1/2019
5/1/2019
7/1/2019
11/1/2015

11/1/2016

11/1/2017

11/1/2018
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
37
Thank You