15/09/2019 Causes of an Economic Recession

GDP AND GROWTH RECESSIONS

Causes of an Economic Recession

BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated July 25, 2019

Economic recessions are caused by a loss of business and consumer confidence. As

confidence recedes, so does demand. A recession is a tipping point in the business cycle.
It's where the peak, accompanied by irrational exuberance, moves into contraction.

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Top 12 Causes of a Recession

Here are the top 12 causes of a recession. A decline in the gross domestic product growth is
often listed as a cause, but it more of a warning signal that a recession is already underway.
GDP is only reported after the quarter is over. By the time GDP has turned negative, the
recession may already be underway.

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Loss of confidence in investments. Loss of confidence makes consumers stop buying and
move into defensive mode. Once a critical mass moves toward the exit sign, panic sets
in. Retail sales slow. Businesses run fewer employment ads, and the economy adds fewer jobs.
Manufacturers cut back in reaction to falling orders—the unemployment rate rises. To restore
confidence, the federal government and the central bank must step in.

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High-interest rates. When rates rise, they limit liquidity. It's the amount of money available to
invest. The biggest culprit was the Federal Reserve, which often raised interest rates to
protect the value of the dollar. The Fed raised rates to battle stagflation, causing the 1980
recession. It did the same thing to protect the dollar/gold relationship, worsening the Great
Depression.

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A stock market crash. The sudden loss of confidence in investing can create a

subsequent bear market, draining capital out of businesses. That's just one of the
ways a stock market crash can cause a recession.

Falling housing prices and sales. As homeowners lose equity, it forces a cutback in spending
as they can no longer take out second mortgages. Over time, it will cause foreclosures. It was
the initial trigger that set o the Great Recession, but for di erent reasons. Banks lost money
on the complicated derivatives that were based on underlying home values.

Manufacturing orders slow down. When manufacturing orders slow, that predicts a recession.

Orders for durable goods started falling in October 2006, long before the 2008 recession hit.

Deregulation. Lawmakers can trigger a recession by removing important safeguards. The

seeds of the S&L crisis were planted in 1982 when the Garn-St. Germain Depository
Institutions Act was passed. This removed restrictions on loan-to-value ratios for these banks.

Poor management. Bad business practices often cause a recession. The Savings and Loans
Crisis caused the 1990 recession. More than 1,000 banks, with total assets of $500 billion,
failed as a result of land flips, questionable loans, and illegal activities. 

Wage-price controls. Fortunately, this only happened once. In 1971, President Richard Nixon
froze wages and prices to stop inflation. But employers laid-o workers because they weren't
allowed to lower wages. Demand fell since families had lower incomes. Companies couldn't
lower prices so they laid o more workers, causing the 1973 recession.

Post-war slowdowns. The economy slowed down after the Korean War. This caused the 1953
recession. Similar reductions after World War II caused the 1945 recession.

Credit crunch. This occurred when Bear Stearns announced losses thanks to the collapse of
two hedge funds it owned. The funds were heavily invested in collateralized debt

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obligations. When Moody's downgraded its debt, banks which were in a similar over-invested

condition panicked. They stopped lending to each other, creating a massive credit crunch.

When asset bubbles burst. Bubbles occur when the price of an item such as gold, stocks, or
housing is over-inflated. This is when the prices of internet companies, stocks, or houses
become inflated beyond their sustainable value. The bubble itself sets the stage for a
recession to occur when it bursts.

Deflation. When prices fall over time, it has a worse e ect than inflation. Deflation reduces the
value of goods and services being sold on the market. That encourages people to wait until
prices are lower. Demand falls, causing a recession. Deflation caused by trade wars
aggravated the Great Depression.

Causes of the 2008 Recession

Irrational exuberance in the housing market led many people to buy houses they couldn't
a ord. Everyone thought housing prices could only go up. The Fed should have raised interest
rates in 2004. Low-interest rates in 2004 and 2005 helped create the housing bubble.
Irrational exuberance set in again as many investors took advantage of low rates to buy
homes to resell. Others bought homes they couldn't a ord thanks to interest-only loans.

In 2006, the bubble burst as housing prices started to decline. It caught many homeowners
o guard, who had taken loans with little money down. As they realized they would lose
money by selling the house for less than their mortgage, they foreclosed. An escalating
foreclosure rate panicked many banks and hedge funds. They had bought mortgage-backed
securities on the secondary market, and now we're facing huge losses.

By August 2007, banks became afraid to lend to each other because they didn't want these
toxic loans as collateral. It led to the $700 billion bailout, bankruptcies, and government
nationalization of Bear Stearns, the American International Group Inc, Fannie Mae, Freddie
Mac, IndyMac Bank, and Washington Mutual. By December 2008, employment was declining
faster than in the 2001 recession.

In 2009, the government launched an economic stimulus plan. It was designed to spend $185
billion in 2009. And in fact, it halted a four-quarter decline in GDP by the third quarter of 2009,
thus ending the recession. But, unemployment continued to rise to 10 percent, and many
business leaders still expected a W-shaped recession by the end of 2010. High
unemployment rates still persisted into 2011.

Causes of the 2001 Recession

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Irrational exuberance in high tech caused the 2001 recession. In 1999, there was an economic
boom in computer and software sales caused by the Y2K scare. Many companies and
individuals bought new computer systems to make sure their software was Y2K compliant. It
meant that the operating code would be able to understand the di erence between 2000 and
1900. Many fields within that code only had two spaces, not the four needed to di erentiate
the two dates fully. As a result, the stock price of many high-tech companies started to
increase.

It led to a lot of investors' money going to any high tech company, whether they were showing
profits or not. The exuberance for dot-com companies became irrational.

It became apparent in January 2000 that computer orders were going to decline. The shelf life
of most computers is about two years. Companies had just bought all the equipment they
would need. It led to a stock market sell-o in March 2000. As stock prices declined, so did the
value of the dot-com companies and many went bankrupt.
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In spite of the stock market decline in March 2000, the Federal Reserve continued raising
interest rates to a high of 6.25% in May 2000. The Fed didn't start lowering rates until January
2001. It lowered them a half a point each month, resting at 1.75% in December 2001. It kept the
interest rates high when the economy needed low rates for cheap business loans and
mortgages.

What Will Cause the Next Recession

It's hard to say exactly where the next recession would occur. But you can bet it will be some
combination of low-interest rates that creates irrational exuberance on the part of investors. If
the Fed raises rates too soon or too fast, it will pop the bubble, leading to panic and causing a
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recession. 

STOCK MARKET

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Will the Next Stock Market Crash

Cause a Recession?

Cartoon of pin about to burst a balloon

STOCK MARKET
RECESSIONS The Biggest Market Crashes and
17 Recessions in U.S. History Corrections in History

STOCK MARKET
INFLATION
The Danger of Irrational Exuberance
Who Are the Leaders in the Battle
Against Inflation?

RECESSIONS

What Makes a Depression So Much

Worse than a Recession?

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HOT TOPICS GLOBAL MARKET BASICS

Protect Yourself from the Next U.S. Japan's Lost Decade: A Brief History
Economic Crisis and Lessons Learned

GDP AND GROWTH STOCK MARKET

How Fast Should the Economy Grow? Causes of the 2008 Global Financial
Crisis

RECESSIONS

5 Warning Signs of a Recession

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FINANCIAL CRISIS SUBPRIME CRISIS

How 9/11 Worsened the 2001 The Causes of the Subprime

Recession Mortgage Crisis

RECESSIONS DEMAND

Is the Real Estate Market Going to Protect Yourself From Today's Hidden
Crash? Asset Bubbles

STOCK MARKET

Are We in a Bear Market Now?

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