Industriales, transporte, servicios aeropuertos, terminales

The world comes from an era where air transport was considered
luxury, to another where it is accessible to more than one segment of the
population. Mexican airport system consists of 77 airports, 64 of them
international, 34 concessioned to private groups (ASUR, GAP and OMA) and
a concession to a parastatal entity (AICM). GAP operates 13 airports in
Mexico’s Pacific region, Guadalajara and Tijuana attend principal
metropolitan areas, while Guanajuato, Hermosillo, Mexicali, Aguascalientes,
Morelia and los Mochis care about growing cities, leaving Los Cabos, Puerto
Vallarta, La Paz and Manzanillo with touristic destinations. Tijuana is one of
the most valuable airports for GAP, due to the implementation of Cross Border
Xpress program which adds high value travelers and national coverage to many
local destinations, and because of the cancellation of the new airport of Mexico
City, Guadalajara’s airport will gain importance due to the amount of excusing
operations per hour. No more than 61 operations can be performed per hour,
but it is not fulfilled.
According to the SCT, up to 180 landing and take-off maneuvers are
carried out at peak times in the AICM. Almost triple the authorized, so
Guadalajara’s airport can fill this necessity as another option for travelling.

In October 2018, GAP obtained Jamaica’s government airport

concession for 25 years willing to start operations at the end of 2019, added to
actual Montego Bay’s airport, GAP will control 100% of country’s airspace
with Kingston acquisition increasing value for shareholders.

In the last 5 years, passenger transport grew 58.2%, with an Average Annual
Growth Rate of 9.6%. In 2018 was reported the highest passenger transport
for the last 25 years, with more than 97.3 million passengers. The number of
passengers being transported on international flights is almost on par with
domestic flights; 51% domestic, 48% international and the remaining 1% on
cargo, whereas 15 years before was 52% domestic, 36% international and
12% cargo; we attributed the low cargo, due to the concession of railways
destined for cargo transportation in 1995. In 2018, Mexican airports of GAP
handled 40.5 million terminal passengers, 10.7% more than passengers
transported in 2017 and 41.62% of the total industry.

A high part of airport revenues comes from exchange rate coming principally
from international passengers, usually obtained in US dollars. Approximately 23% of aeronautical and
non-aeronautical earnings were collected in dollars. As GAP has 23% of its earnings in dollars and the
expectation according to Banxico is that the peso against the dollar will continue to rise until it reaches
21 pesos per dollar so that money entered in dollars is an advantage knowing that almost all operations
are in pesos .

Along with the shift to greater demand for air travel, the composition of the airlines has changed over
the past 10 years (2008-2018); companies that controlled 40.5% of the market today do not exist, such
as Grupo Mexicana, Aviacsa, Mesoamerican Airlines, Avolar and Aerocalifornia and were replaced by
other newly created airlines, just to give an example Vivaaerobus that has the accesibles prices on the
market. GAP passenger distribution behaves as: 58% of people travelling to domestic destinations and
the remaining 42% to international journeys, being 45% for leisure, 26% for business, 25% for visiting
friends and relatives (VFR) and 4% for other.

Related to passenger distribution, we expect an increment in passengers for the following years, because
according to Fitch, Mexico's current rate had been around 8.25%, the highest rate since 2008, it’s
expected to drop to 7.75% this year and to maintain until 2023 as the US Rate (2%). This means that
there will be much more money in circulation stimulating economy and as an indirectly result more
people traveling, increasing aeronautical and non aeronautical incomes. 2018 inflation rate was 4.9%,
a lot over BANXICO target of 3%, at the end of this year it is expected to decrease due to monetary
policy and fragile economy activity, reaching 3.9% in order to get to 3.8% in 2021.

The agreements signed by Mexico with other countries have increased 79% in the last 25 years. At the
end of 2018, GAP reached 332 destinations operated by 35 airlines. For the transit part of the routes,
the 10 regular major domestic routes mobilize 42.7% of total passengers and show the positioning of
the three main airports in the country Mexico (Parastatal Entity), Cancun (ASUR) and Guadalajara
(GAP). And on the international side, the ten major routes in 2018 mobilized 19.6% of total passengers.
Seven of the top ten routes are destined for cities in the United States, in which airport of Tijuana play
an important role because of the connectivity of the CBX, regarding that Los Angeles is the most transit
route, then Houston, you can lease a car, having in mind that domestic flights are less expensive than
international flights.

Some of the main challenges for GAP are oil prices and exchange rate volatility. This year, oil prices
play a major role for every airport in the country, raise of oil prices mean an increase of fuel prices,
affecting airline expenses. Turbosina represents almost 30% of airline operating costs. According to
Ministry of Energy fuel demand is not affected by price scenarios, even when flight demand decrease,
flights maintain itineraries because some airlines have absorbed the demand of those that have
suspended operations. In the course of the year fuel cost averages 12.66 pesos per liter, Monex analysts
expect an adjustment of -7.1% and -1.4% at the end of 2019 and 2020 respectively, against prices in
2018.

El 29 de marzo de 2019, la Compañía realizó la emisión pública de deuda mediante 30 millones de

Certificados Bursátiles a largo plazo por valor total de Ps. 3,000.0 millones, con garantía quirografaria
y sin amortizaciones, correspondiente a la emisión “GAP 19” Estos certificados pagarán intereses a una
tasa de interés variable de TIIE a 28 días más 45 puntos base, con vencimiento el 22 de marzo de 2024.
La Compañía contrató un Swap de TIIE, que cubrirá todo el plazo de esta emisión, la tasa de interés
pactada es de 8.03%, por lo tanto, el costo financiero de este crédito será de 8.48% anual.

Precio de la turbosina gráfica: http://canaero.org.mx/datos-de-la-industria/precio-de-la-

turbosina/

Precio turbosina noticia- https://www.globalmedia.mx/articles/Aeropuertos-en-riesgo-

por-combustible-caro

Reporte de julio -
https://www.aeropuertosgap.com.mx/files/CORPORATE%20PRESENTATION%20J
ULY%2019_VF.pdf

Anuario Estadístico Ferroviario 2018 https://www.gob.mx/artf/acciones-y-

programas/anuario-estadistico-ferroviario-2018
Noticia El Financiero https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/empresas/gap-visualiza-a-
guadalajara-como-posible-punto-de-conexion-para-reemplazar-al-naim

https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/estados/Alistan-obra-de-infraestructura-en-Tijuana-
20190123-0011.html

https://www.aeropuertosgap.com.mx/es/2012-03-02-17-22-49.html

Fitch
Secretaría de energía (Turbosina)
https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/62951/Prospectiva_de_Petr_leo_y_Petrol_f
eros_2013-2027.pdf

Monex Volaris (Viene estimados de turbosina)

https://www.monex.com.mx/portal/download/reportes/VOLARIS%20COVERAGE%202019%
20VD.pdf