1.

Data

This example considers a study area consisting of 3 zones.

The following information is provided for use to calibrate a gravity distribution model

(a) Base-year O-D matrix (Tij)

To
Zone 1 2 3 Oi
1 65 10 25 100
From 2 12 32 16 60
1
3 83 58 159 300
Dj 160 100 200 460
3
(b) Travel distance matrix (dij, km) 2
To
Zone 1 2 3
1 1 2 3
From 2 2 1 2
3 3 2 1
 2. RMS (doubly constrained)

This sheet first estimates the OD matrix and then calculates the RMS:

Model Structure Tij = Ai Oi Bj Dj dij^(-Beta)

2.1 Let beta: 2

2.2 Go to Sheet 2.2 "BalancingFactors" to determine balancing factors

Ai 0.00287 0.0041 0.00536
Bj 1.8973 1.38947 0.58791

2.3 Estimate O-D Matrix:

To
Zone 1 2 3 Oi
1 94 11 4 109
From 2 19 35 7 61
3 53 54 183 290 Iterate for different Beta values
Dj 166 100 195 460

2.4 Estimation Error (RMS):

To
Zone 1 2 3
1 865.352 0.6464 438.341
From 2 49.5054 8.13513 74.4207
3 928.384 15.2176 581.83

RMS= 18.1409 0.03941

2.5 Tabular results (maually recorded):

RMS vs. Beta
20
18
16
14
12
 2. RMS (doubly constrained)

Beta RMS RMS vs. Beta

0 19 4%
20
0.5 9.3 2% 18
1 7.2 2% 16
14
2 18 4% 12
10

RMS
8
6
2.6 Identify the best beta value 4
Best Beta: 0.6 2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Beta
 2. RMS (doubly constrained)

fferent Beta values

This sheet first estimates the OD matrix and then calculates the RMS:
2.1 Let beta: 0
2.2 Determine balancing factors, completed in Sheet 2.2 BalancingFactors:
Ai 0.00287 0.0041 0.00536
Bj 1 1 1

2.3 Estimate O-D Matrix:

To
Zone 1 2 3 Oi
1 35 22 43 100
From 2 21 13 26 60 RMS vs. B
3 104 65 130 300
Dj 160 100 200 460 20

2.4 Estimation Error (RMS): 18

To
16
Zone 1 2 3
1 913.091 137.807 341.446 14
From 2 78.6692 359.35 101.747
3 455.73 52.0907 815.972 12

10
RMS= 19.0202 0.04135
8

2.5 Tabular results (maually recorded): 4

Beta RMS
0 19 4% 2
0.5 10.3 2%
1 17.6 4% 0
0% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6

2.6 Identify the best beta value

Best Beta: 0.5
 RMS vs. Beta

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

 2.2 BalancingFactors

This sheet calculates the Ai and Bj values based on a given deferrence parameter (Beta) value

Beta = 2 <==From Sheet RMS

Iteration: 0 Assume intial values for Ai and Bj

Ai
1.0
1.0
1.0
Bj 1.0 1.0 1.0

Iteration: 1
Ai
0.0048
0.0053
0.0041
Bj 1.4 1.3 0.7

Iteration: 2
Ai
0.0036
0.0044
0.0049
Bj 1.7 1.4 0.6

Iteration: 3
Ai
0.0031
0.0042
0.0052
Bj 1.8 1.4 0.6

Iteration: 4
Ai
0.0029
0.0041
0.0053
Bj 1.9 1.4 0.6

Iteration: 5
Ai
0.0029
 2.2 BalancingFactors

0.0041
0.0054
Bj 1.9 1.4 0.6
 2.2 BalancingFactors

eter (Beta) value

Final Model

Tij = Ai Oi Bj Dj dij^(-0.6)

Ai and Bi are functions of Oi, Dj and dij

 4. Model Evaluation

Trips Trips Length (km)

Distance (Km) By Model By observation By Model
1 226 49% 256 56% 226
2 122 27% 96 21% 244
3 111 24% 108 23% 333
Total 459 100% 460 100% 803

Average Trip Length (km) 1.75

Trip Length Distribution

60%

50% By model
Percent of Total Trips

40% Observed

30%

20%

10%

0%
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Trip Length (km)
 4. Model Evaluation

By observation
256
192
324
772

1.68

3.5
This example considers a study area consisting of 3 zones.
The following information is provided for use to estimate the O-D matrix using Furness Method

(a) Base-year O-D matrix (Tij)

To
Zone 1 2 3 Oi
1 65 10 25 100
From 2 12 32 16 60
3 83 58 159 300
Dj 160 100 200 460

(b) Horizon-year TP/TA

To
Zone 1 2 3 Oi
1 200
From 2 ? 120
3 500
Dj 320 200 300 820

[Make sure Sum(O) = Sum(D)]

(a) Base-year O-D matrix (Tij)
To
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-b fi
1 0 800 100 900
From 2 850 0 50 900
3 50 100 0 300
Dj-b 900 900 150 2100
gj

Step 0: Set Oi, Dj, then calculate fi, gj, and then Tij
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 0 800 100 2000.0 900.0 2.2
From 2 850 0 50 1800.0 900.0 2.0
3 50 100 0 200.0 150.0 1.3
Horizon Dj-h 1900.0 1900.0 200.0
Base' Dj-b 900.0 900.0 150.0
Growth gj 2.1 2.1 1.3
Bj 1 1 1
Iteration 1: Calculate Aj based on Bi, and then Bj based on Ai
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 0 800 100 2000.0 900.0 2.2 0.493902
From 2 850 0 50 1800.0 900.0 2.0 0.483582
3 50 100 0 200.0 150.0 1.3 0.473684
Horizon Dj-h 1900.0 1900.0 200.0
Base' Dj-b 900.0 900.0 150.0
Growth gj 2.1 2.1 1.3
Bj 1.054273 0.956219 0.948681
Iteration 2: Calculate Aj based on Bi, and then Bj based on Ai
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 0 800 100 2000.0 900.0 2.2 0.516814
From 2 850 0 50 1800.0 900.0 2.0 0.460339
3 50 100 0 200.0 150.0 1.3 0.478999
Horizon Dj-h 1900.0 1900.0 200.0
Base' Dj-b 900.0 900.0 150.0
Growth gj 2.1 2.1 1.3
Bj 1.104959 0.915894 0.932363
Iteration 3: Calculate Aj based on Bi, and then Bj based on Ai
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 0 800 100 2000.0 900.0 2.2 0.538549
From 2 850 0 50 1800.0 900.0 2.0 0.44011
3 50 100 0 200.0 150.0 1.3 0.483887
Horizon Dj-h 1900.0 1900.0 200.0
Base' Dj-b 900.0 900.0 150.0
 Growth gj 2.1 2.1 1.3
Bj 1.153188 0.880679 0.916375
Iteration 4: Calculate Aj based on Bi, and then Bj based on Ai
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 0 800 100 2000.0 900.0 2.2 0.559162
From 2 850 0 50 1800.0 900.0 2.0 0.422451
3 50 100 0 200.0 150.0 1.3 0.487573
Horizon Dj-h 1900.0 1900.0 200.0
Base' Dj-b 900.0 900.0 150.0
Growth gj 2.1 2.1 1.3
Bj 1.198926 0.849798 0.900883

Horizon Trip Matrix

To Horizon Base' Growth

Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 0 0 145 2000.0 145.3 2.2 0.516814
From 2 1742 0 58 1800.0 1800.0 2.0 0.460339
3 71 129 0 200.0 200.0 1.3 0.478999
Horizon Dj-h 1900.0 1900.0 200.0
Base' Dj-b 1812.8 128.9 203.5
Growth gj 2.1 2.1 1.3
Bj 1.054 0.956 0.949
(a) Base-year O-D matrix (Tij)
To
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-b fi
1 65 10 25 100
From 2 12 32 16 60
3 83 58 159 300
Dj-b 160 100 200 460
gj

Step 0: Set Oi, Dj, then calculate fi, gj, and then Tij
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 65 10 25 200.0 100.0 2.0
From 2 12 32 16 120.0 60.0 2.0
3 83 58 159 500.0 300.0 1.7
Horizon Dj-h 320.0 200.0 300.0
Base' Dj-b 160.0 100.0 200.0
Growth gj 2.0 2.0 1.5
Bj 1 1 1
Iteration 1: Calculate Aj based on Bi, and then Bj based on Ai
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 65 10 25 200.0 100.0 2.0 0.533333
From 2 12 32 16 120.0 60.0 2.0 0.535714
3 83 58 159 500.0 300.0 1.7 0.576369
Horizon Dj-h 320.0 200.0 300.0
Base' Dj-b 160.0 100.0 200.0
Growth gj 2.0 2.0 1.5
Bj 0.988133 0.993364 1.017567
Iteration 2: Calculate Aj based on Bi, and then Bj based on Ai
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 65 10 25 200.0 100.0 2.0 0.536241
From 2 12 32 16 120.0 60.0 2.0 0.537095
3 83 58 159 500.0 300.0 1.7 0.574768
Horizon Dj-h 320.0 200.0 300.0
Base' Dj-b 160.0 100.0 200.0
Growth gj 2.0 2.0 1.5
Bj 0.986977 0.993446 1.018784
Iteration 3: Calculate Aj based on Bi, and then Bj based on Ai
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 65 10 25 200.0 100.0 2.0 0.536537
From 2 12 32 16 120.0 60.0 2.0 0.537063
3 83 58 159 500.0 300.0 1.7 0.574649
Horizon Dj-h 320.0 200.0 300.0
Base' Dj-b 160.0 100.0 200.0
 Growth gj 2.0 2.0 1.5
Bj 0.986847 0.993521 1.018875
Iteration 4: Calculate Aj based on Bi, and then Bj based on Ai
To Horizon Base' Growth
Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 65 10 25 200.0 100.0 2.0 0.536572
From 2 12 32 16 120.0 60.0 2.0 0.537044
3 83 58 159 500.0 300.0 1.7 0.574639
Horizon Dj-h 320.0 200.0 300.0
Base' Dj-b 160.0 100.0 200.0
Growth gj 2.0 2.0 1.5
Bj 0.986831 0.993535 1.018883

Horizon Trip Matrix

To Horizon Base' Growth

Zone 1 2 3 Oi-h Oi-b fi Ai
1 138 21 41 200.0 100.0 2.0 0.536572
From 2 25 68 26 120.0 60.0 2.0 0.537044
3 157 110 233 500.0 300.0 1.7 0.574639
Horizon Dj-h 320.0 200.0 300.0
Base' Dj-b 160.0 100.0 200.0
Growth gj 2.0 2.0 1.5
Bj 0.986831 0.993535 1.018883