ABSTRACT
Analysis of tidal components can be done with several methods, namely least square method, admiralty and
so forth. The least square method is a tidal harmonic analysis method used to analyze and to predict tides
in this research. Daily observation data of 15 days in each hour will be simulated against 158 variations
of time using Hijri calendar, to find out the initial variation of observational data that best matches the
tidal prediction in Bengkalis waters. The analysis was carried out using tidal data in the waters around the
port of Roro Bengkalis. The analysis results show that the smallest average root mean square error (RMSE)
value is on the initial variation of the 30th data for verification of the simulation data. The 30th days of the
Hijri calendar is in the new moon phase.The tidal type of the location of the research based on the value of
the Formzahl number was classified at the double mixed tide prevailing type (mixed tide prevailing
semidiurnal).
250
Elevasi Muka air (cm)
200
150
100
50
0
28/11/2015
29/11/2015
30/11/2015
01/12/2015
02/12/2015
03/12/2015
04/12/2015
05/12/2015
06/12/2015
07/12/2015
08/12/2015
09/12/2015
10/12/2015
11/12/2015
12/12/2015
13/12/2015
14/12/2015
15/12/2015
Waktu Pengamatan (jam)
Muka Air Observasi Hitungan S0
200
RMSE (cm)
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Tanggal Hijriah
Dzulqaidah Dzulhijjah Muharram Shafar Rabiul Awal Rabiul Akhir
(a)
150.00
RMSE (cm)
100.00
50.00
0.00
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Tanggal Hijriah
Dzulqaidah Dzulhijjah Muharram Shafar Rabiul Awal Rabiul Akhir
(b)
Gambar 4 Diagram Nilai RMSE Hasil Verifikasi Variasi Data Input Tanggal 1-15 Hijriah (a) dan Tanggal
16-30 Hijriah (b)
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
TANGGAL HIJRIAH
M2 S2 N2 K2 K1 O1 P1 M4 MS4
Gambar 5 Nilai Amplitudo Rerata Tiap Komponen
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
-50.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
-100.00
-150.00
-200.00
TANGGAL AWAL HIJRIAH