REPORT OR PROJECT
ON
SUBMITTED TO
SUBMITTED BY
ROLL NO _____________
HINDU COLLEGE
DELHI UNIVERSITY
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CERTIFICATE
It is certified that the Project Report entitled “Quantity and Price Index
________________ is his own work and has been carried out under my
supervision.
Mentor
(Commerce Department)
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First and foremost, I would like to thank to my mentor of this project Dr.
POONAM SETHI for the valuable guidance and advice. She inspired us greatly to
work in this project. Her willingness to motivate us contributed tremendously to our
project. I also would like to thanks for her timely guidance in the conduct of our
project work which help me to complete this project work on time.
DEEPAK
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CONTENTS PAGE NO
Certificate …………………………………………………………………………………….i
Acknowledgment ……………………………………………………………………………ii
Table of Contents …………………………………………………………………………..iii
1. INTRODUCTION
History of index number …………………………………………………………….1
Important definition ………………………………………………………………….2
Daily use of index numbers ………………………………………………………...3
Problems in the construction of index ……………………………………………..4
5. CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………………….24
6. BIBLIOGRAPHY………………………………………………………………………..25
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CHAPTER-1
INTRODUCTION
While Vaughan can be considered a forerunner of price index research, his analysis
did not actually involve calculating an index. In 1707 Englishman William Fleetwood
created perhaps the first true price index. An Oxford student asked Fleetwood to
help show how prices had changed. The student stood to lose his fellowship since a
fifteenth century stipulation barred students with annual incomes over five pounds
from receiving a fellowship. Fleetwood, who already had an interest in price change,
had collected a large amount of price data going back hundreds of years. Fleetwood
proposed an index consisting of averaged price relatives and used his methods to
show that the value of five pounds had changed greatly over the course of 260
years. He argued on behalf of the Oxford students and published his findings
anonymously in a volume entitled CHRONICON PRECIOSUM.
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1.2 Important Definition
……..SPIEGEL
3. “In its simplest form, an index number is nothing more than a relative number,
or a “relative” which express the relationship between two figures, where one
of the figure is used as a base”
………MORRIS HAMBURG
4. “In its simplest form, an index number is the ratio of two index number
expressed as a per cent. An index number is a statistical measures designed
to show changes in the variables or in a group of related variables over time,
or with respect of geographic location, or other characteristics.”
………PATTERSON
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1.3 Daily Use of Index Numbers
Index numbers have become one of the most widely used
statistical devices and there is hardly any field where they are not used. Newspaper
headline the fact that price are going up or down , that industrial production rising or
falling , that imports are increasing or decreasing ,that crime are rising in a particular
period compared to the previous period as disclosed by index numbers. They are
used to pulse of economy and they have come to be used as indicator of inflationary
or deflationary tendencies. In fact, they are described as barometer of economic
activities, i.e., if one wants to get an idea as to what is happening in an economy he
should look to important indices like the index number of industrial production,
agriculture production, business activities, etc.
Index numbers are indispensable tool of economic activities and business analysis.
Their uses can be show by the following points:
1. They help in framing suitable policies. Many of the economic and business
polices are guided by index numbers. For example, while deciding the
increase in dearness allowance of the employees, the employers have to
depend upon the cost of living index. If wages and salaries are not adjusted in
accordance with the cost living, very often its lead to strikes and lock-outs
which in turns cause considerable wastes of resources.
2. They reveal trend and tendencies. Since index numbers are most widely
used for measuring changes over a period of time series so formed enable us
to study general trend of the phenomenon under study. For example, by
examining index numbers of import for India for last 10 years we can say our
import are showing upward tendency, i.e., they are rising year after year.
3. Index numbers are useful in deflating . Index numbers are highly useful in
deflating they are used to adjust the original data for price change, or to adjust
wages for cost of living changes and thus transforms nominal wages into real
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wages. Moreover, nominal income can be transforms into real income and
nominal sales into real sales through appropriate index numbers.
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1.4 Problems in the Construction of Index Numbers:
Before constructing index numbers a careful thought must be given to the following
problems:
The purpose of constructing the index number must be very clearly decided.
There is no all-purpose index. Every index is of limited and particular use.
Thus, a price index that is intended to measures the cost or living of poor
families, great care should be taken out to include goods ordinarily used by
middle class and upper class groups. Failure to deicide clearly the purpose of
the index would lead to confusion and wastage of time with no fruitful result.
The items included in index should be determined by the purpose for which
the index is constructed. Every item cannot be included while constructing
index it is necessary to decide what commodity to include.
4. Price quotations.
After the commodity has been selected, the next problem is to obtain price
quotation for these commodities. Price of many commodities varies from
place to place and even from shop to shop in the same market. A selection
must be made of representative places and person.
5. Choice of average.
Since index numbers index are specialized averages a decision has to made
as to which particular (i.e., mean, median, mode, geometric mean or harmonic
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mean) should be used for constructing the index. Median, mode and mean
are almost never used in the construction of index. Basically, a choice has to
be made between arithmetic mean and geometric mean.
The problem of selecting weights is quite important and at same time difficult
to decide. The term “weight” refers to the relative importance of the different
items in construction of the index. All the items are not of equal importance
and hence it is necessary to used suitable method whereby the varying
importance of the different items be taken into account.
A large number of formulae have been available for constructing the index.
The problem very often is that of selecting the most appropriate formula. The
choice of the formula would depend not only on the purpose of the index but
also on data available.
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CHAPTER-2
METHODS OF CONSTRUCTING
INDEX NUMBER
In the un-weighted indices weights are not expressly assigned whereas in the
weighted indices weights are assigned to various items. Each of these types may be
further divided under two heads:
I. Simple Aggregative.
This is the simplest method of constructing index. When this method is used to
construct a price index the total of current year prices for the various commodities in
question is divided by the total of base year prices and the quotient is multiplied by
100. Symbolically:
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= total of base year prices for various commodities.
Limitations of this index: There are two main limitations of the simple aggregative
index:
1. The unit used in the price or quantity quotation can exert a big influence on
the value of the index.
2. No consideration is given to the relative important of the commodities.
When this method is used to construct a price index, first of all price relatives are
obtain from the various items included in the index and then average of these
relatives is obtained using any one of the measure of central value. When arithmetic
mean is used for averaging the relatives the formula for computing the index is
Where N refers to the number of items whose price relatives are thus averaged.
Although any measures of central value can be used to obtain the overall index,
price relatives are generally averaged either by the arithmetic or the geometric
mean. When geometric mean is used for averaging the price relatives the formula for
the index becomes
Or where
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Other measures of central value are not in common use for averaging relatives.
The so-called un-weighted index discussed is not un-weighted in the true sense of
the term. They assign equal importance to all the items included in the index and as
such they are in reality weighted, weights being implicit rather than explicit.
Construction of index requires a conscious effort to assign to each commodity weight
in accordance its importance in the total phenomenon that the index is supposed to
describe.
These indices are of the simple aggregative type with the fundamental difference
that weights are assigned to the various items included in the index. There are
various methods of assigning weights and consequently a large number of formulae
for constructing index have been devised of which some of most important methods
are:
1. LASPEYRES Method:
The LASPEYRES price index is a weighted price index, where the weights are
determined by quantity in the base period. The formula for constructing the index is:
2. PAASCHE’S Method:
The PAASCHE price index is a weighted aggregate price index in which the weights
are determined by the quantity in the given year. The formula for constructing the
index is:
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In general, this formula answers the question: “what would be the value of the given
period list of goods when valued at base period prices?”
DORBISH and BOWELY have suggested simple arithmetic mean of the two index
that is LASPEYRES and PASSCHE so as to take into account the influence of both
the periods, i.e., current as well as base period. The formula for constructing the
index is:
Or
Prof. Irving Fisher has given a number of formulae for constructing index and of
these he calls one as the ‘ideal’ index. The Fisher’s Ideal index is given by the
formula:
It shall clear from the formula that fisher’s Ideal index is a geometric mean of the
LASPEYRES and PASSCHE indices. Thus in the Fisher’s Method we average
geometrically formulae that err in opposite directions.
5. MARSHALL-EDGEWORTH Method:
In this method also the current year as well as base year prices and quantities are
considered. The formula for constructing the index is:
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Or opening the brackets
6. KELLY’S Method:
Truman L. Kelly has suggested the following formula for constructing the index:
Here weights are the quantities which may refers to some period, not necessarily the
base year or the current year. Thus the average quantity of two years may be used
as a weights, the formula becomes:
Similarly, the average of the quantities of three or more year can be used as weights
this method is known as fixed weight aggregative index and in currently in great
favour in the construction of index series.
In this methods discussed above price relatives were not computed. However, like
un-weighted relative method it is also possible to compute weighted average of
relatives. For purpose of averaging we may use either the arithmetic mean or the
geometric mean. The steps in the construction of the weighted arithmetic mean of
the relative’s index number are as follows:
i. Express each items of the period for which the index is being
calculated as per cent age of the same items in the base period.
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ii. Multiply the percentage as obtained in step (i) for each item by the
weight which has been assigned to that item.
iii. Add the result obtained from the several multiplications carried out in
step (ii).
iv. Divide the sum obtained in step (iii) by the sum of the weights used.
The result is the index number. Symbolically,
Instead of using arithmetic mean the geometric mean may be used for averaging
relatives. When geometric mean is used the formula for computing the index is:
Price index numbers measures and permit comparison of the price of certain goods;
quantity index number. On the other hand, measure the physical volume of
production, construction or employment. Though price indices are more widely used,
production indices are highly significant as indicator of the level of output in the
economy or in any part of it.
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When PAASCHE’S formula is used
These formulae represent the quantity index in which the quantities of the different
commodities are weighted by their price. However, any other suitable weights can be
used instead.
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CHAPTER-3
INDEX NUMBER OF INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
The index number of industrial production is designed to measures increase or
decrease in the level of industrial production in a given period compared to some
base period. It should be noted that such an index measures change in the quantum
of production and not in values. For constructing such index it is necessary to obtain
data about the level of industrial output in the base period and in given period.
Usually data about production are collected under the following heads:
3.1 Meaning
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to arrive at a single representative figure to measure the general level of industrial
activity in the economy. Strictly speaking the IIP is a short term indicator measuring
industrial growth till the actual result of detailed industrial surveys become available.
This indicator is of paramount importance and is being used by various organisations
including Ministries/Departments of Government of India, Industrial Associations,
Research Institutes and Academicians.
In India, the first official attempt to compute regularly the Index of Industrial
Production was made much earlier than even the recommendations on the subject at
the international level by UNSO. The Office of Economic Advisor, Ministry of
Commerce and Industry made the first maiden attempt of compilation and release of
Index of Industrial Production with base year 1937 covering 15 important industries
accounting for more than 90% of the total production of the selected industries.
Subsequently, the base years were revised twice, viz., in 1946 and 1951.With the
inception of Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) in 1951, the responsibility for
compilation and publication of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was vested with
this office. The general scope of the index of industrial production as recommended
by the United Nations Statistical Office (UNSO) is defined to include mining,
manufacturing, construction, electricity and gas sectors. But due to constraints of the
data availability, the present general index of industrial production compiled in India
has in its scope mining, manufacturing and electricity only.
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As the structure of the industrial sector changes over time, it became
necessary to revise the base year of the IIP periodically to capture the changing
composition of industrial production and emergence of new products and services so
as to measure the real growth of industrial sector (UNSO recommends quinquennial
revision of the base year of IIP). After 1937, the successive revised base years were
1946, 1951, 1956, 1960, 1970, 1980–81 and 1993-94. Initially it was covering 15
industries comprising three broad categories: mining, manufacturing and electricity.
The scope of the index was restricted to mining and manufacturing sectors
consisting of 20 industries with 35 items.
The latest series with 1993-94 as the base year containing 543 items (with the
addition of 3 items for mining sector and 188 for the manufacturing sector) has come
into existence on 27 May 1998 and ever since, the quick estimates of IIP are being
released as per the norms set out for the IMF’s SDDS2, with a time lag of six weeks
from the reference month. These quick estimates for a given month are revised twice
in the subsequent months. To retain the distinctive character and enable the
collection of data, the source agencies proposed clubbing of 478 items of the
manufacturing sector into 285 item groups and thus making a total of 287 item
groups together with one each of electricity and mining & quarrying. The revised
series has followed the National Industrial Classification NIC-1987. Another
important feature of the latest series is the inclusion of unorganised manufacturing
sector (That is, the same 18 SSI products) along with organised sector for the first
time in the weighting diagram.
The Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) which had been set up in the
Department of Statistics in June, 1995 to advise on Compilation of Comparable State
IIPs and Composite all-India IIP was also entrusted subsequently in November 1996
with the responsibility of examining all the issues and providing technical guidance in
the matter of shifting the base year of all-India IIP to 1993-94. The salient features of
the recommendations of the TAC in this regard are as under:-
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a. The current series of all-India IIP may be revised by shifting its base to 1993-
94;
d. The item basket for the revised series of all-India IIP with base 1993-94 may
be selected in a similar manner as recommended for selection of State level
item basket i.e., the selected items should account for nearly 80% of the total
output for the manufacturing sector. However the criteria may be used with
certain flexibility. For example, items not accounting for a gross annual
production of 80 crore may not necessarily be included in the basket. The
criteria may be relaxed, if necessary, to ensure that the provisionally selected
items in all the 2-digit industry groups captured at least 60% of the Value of
Output of the particular group. The over-riding criteria for finalisation of item
basket would be the regular flow of monthly production data from the source
agencies.
e. The revised series would follow the National Industrial Classification (NIC)
1987.
f. Gross Value of Output (GVO) rather than Gross Value Added (GVA) may be
used for weighting purposes from sectorial (1-digit) to the ultimate (4-digit)
levels of industry for compilation of both the State IIPs as well as all-India IIP.
Most of the recommendations of the TAC were accepted. However, the use of GVO
as weights at industry group levels was not accepted for Compiling the All India IIP
and GVA was continued to be used as in the 1980-81 series.
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The scope of the index has been confined to mining, manufacturing and
electricity sectors and does not cover gas, water supply and construction. The
distribution of items covered by the index with 1980-81 and 1993-94 base years are
as follows:-
No. of Items
Mining 61 64
Electricity 1 1
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CHAPTER-4
SHARE PRICE INDICES
The Governing Board having 20 directors is the apex body, which decides polices
and the affairs of the exchange. The Governing Board consists of 9 elected directors,
who are the broking community, three SEBI nominees, six public representatives
and an Executive director & Chief Executive Officer and a Chief Operative Officer.
BSE SENSEX
Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) SENSEX is the most widely used and accepted
equity price Index in the country, with the base year as 1978-79, it comprise of 30
scrip representative a sample of large, well-established and financially sound
companies. Popularly known as SENSEX, the index has been serving a large
measure, the purpose of quantifying the price movement as also the sensitivity of the
market in an effective manner.
The Sensex is supposed to mirror the happening on the BSE. Just as you check only
couple of mangoes in a basket to decide whether is the entire lot is good, so will you
check out the Sensex to get a sense of what is happening in the stock market?
Being the oldest index in India it has also attains a position of pre-eminence in the
mind of Indian investors.
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1. To measure market movement: Giving its long history and wide acceptance,
no other Index matches the BSE Sensex in reflecting market movement and
sentiments. Sensex is widely used to describe the mood of Indian market.
2. Benchmark of funds’ performance: The inclusion of blue chip and the wide
and balanced industries representation in the Sensex makes it the ideal
benchmark for fund managers to compare the performance of their funds.
Industrial investors, money managers and small investors all refer to the BSE
Sensex for their specific purpose. The BSE Sensex is in effect the proxy for the
Indian stock markets. The country’s first derivative product, i.e., index- feature was
launched on BSE Sensex.
1. Listed History: The scrip should have a listing history of at least 3 months at
BSE. Exception may be considered if full market capitalization of a newly listed
company ranks among top 10 in the list of BSE universe. In case, a company is
listed on account of merger/ demerger/ amalgamation, minimum listing history would
not be required.
2. Trading Frequency: The scrip should have been traded on each and every
trading day in the last three months at BSE. Exceptions can be made for extreme
reasons like scrip suspension etc.
3. Final Rank: The scrip should figure in the top 100 companies listed by final rank.
The final rank is arrived at by assigning 75% weightage to the rank on the basis of
three-month average full market capitalization and 25% weightage to the liquidity
rank based on three-month average daily turnover & three-month average impact
cost.
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5. Industry/Sector Representation: Scrip selection would generally take into
account a balanced representation of the listed companies in the universe of BSE.
6. Track Record: In the opinion of the BSE Index Committee, the company should
have an acceptable track record.
One of the important aspects of maintaining continuity with the past is to update
the base year average. The base year value adjustment ensures that replacement of
stocks in Index, additional issue of capital and other corporate announcements like
'rights issue' etc. do not destroy the historical value of the index. The beauty of
maintenance lies in the fact that adjustments for corporate actions in the Index
should not per se affect the index values.
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The BSE Index Cell does the day-to-day maintenance of the index within the broad
index policy framework set by the BSE Index Committee. The BSE Index Cell
ensures that SENSEX and all the other BSE indices maintain their benchmark
properties by striking a delicate balance between frequent replacements in index and
maintaining its historical continuity. The BSE Index Committee comprises of capital
market expert, fund managers, market participants and members of the BSE
Governing Board.
The BSE Index Cell keeps a close watch on the events that might affect the index on
a regular basis and carries out daily maintenance of all BSE Indices.
• Adjustments for
Rights Issues
When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues right shares, the
free-float market capitalization of that company is increased by the number of
additional shares issued based on the theoretical (ex-right) price. An offsetting or
proportionate adjustment is then made to the Base Market capitalization (see 'Base
Market capitalization Adjustment' below).
When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues bonus shares, the
market capitalization of that company does not undergo any change. Therefore,
there is no change in the Base Market capitalization, only the 'number of shares' in
the formula is updated.
• Other Issues
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Base Market capitalization adjustment is required when new shares are issued by
way of conversion of debentures, mergers, spin-offs etc. or when equity is reduced
by way of buy-back of shares, corporate restructuring etc.
To illustrate, suppose a company issues right shares which increases the market
capitalization of the shares of that company by say, Rs.100 crores. The existing
Base Market capitalization (Old Base Market capitalization), say, is Rs.2450 crores
and the aggregate market capitalization of all the shares included in the index before
the right issue is made is, say Rs.4781 crore. The "New Base Market capitalization”
will then be:
This figure of Rs. 2501.24 crore will be used as the Base Market capitalization for
calculating the index number from then onwards till the next base change becomes
necessary.
From 1ST September 2003, the country’s equity benchmark Sensex is being
calculated based on the Free Float methodology. Prior to 1-9-2003, the Sensex was
calculated based on full market capitalisation methodology.
Internationally, all the major index providers have shifted to the Free Float
methodology. MSCI, a leading global Index provider, shifted all its indices to the
Free-float methodology, in 2002. The MSCI Indian Standard Index, which is followed
by FIIS to track Indian equities, is also based on the free-float methodology.
NASDAQ-100, the underlying index to the famous ETF-QQQ is based on Free-float
methodology. FTSE, Dow Jones, S&P, STOXX and other index providers are also
using the free-float methodology.
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Free-float Indices in India
Currently there are two indices based on Free-float methodology, BSE TECK
Index, launched in July 2001, was the country’s first Free-float index. On 16TH June
2003, BSE launched BANKEX, a benchmark for the banking sector stock also based
on the Free-float methodology.
BSE has designed the detailed Free-float format to be filled and summited by all
index companies on a quarterly basis with the exchange. The exchange determines
the free-float factor for each company based on the detailed information submitted
by the companies. Free-float factor is the multiple with which total market
capitalisation of a company is adjusted to arrive at the free-float market
capitalisation. Once the free-float factor of accompany is calculated, it is rounded-off
to the higher multiple of 10 the free-float factor of the company is categorised into
one of the bands given in diagram. The banding structure reduces the potential
frequent changes in the Free-float factor of index companies. A Free-float factor of
say 0.6 means that only 60% of market capitalisation of the company will be
considered for Index calculation.
Nifty is the price index and hence reflects the returns one would earn if investment is
made the index portfolio. However, a price index does not consider the return arising
from dividend receipt. Only capital gains arising due to price movements or
constituent stocks indicated in price index. Therefore, to get a true picture of return,
the dividend received from the constituent stock also need to be factored in the index
values. Such an index, which includes the dividends received, is called the total
return index
Total return index reflects the return on the index arising from constituent stock
movement and dividend receipts from constituent index stocks.
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The following information is as prerequisite for calculation of TR Index: (1) Price
Index close, (2) Price Index return, (3) Dividend pay-out in Rupees, (4) Index Base
Capitalisation on ex-dividend date.
Dividend pay-outs as they occur are indexed on ex-date.
Indexed dividends are then reinvested in the index to the given TR Index.
Base for both the Price index close and TR Index close will be the same. An investor
in index stock should benchmark his investment against the Total Return Index
instead of the price index to determine the actual return on the index.
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CONCLUSION
Index numbers are convenient devises for measuring relative changes of differences
from time to time or from place to place. Just as the arithmetic mean is used to
represent a set of values, an index number is used to represent a set of values over
two or more different period or locations.
The basic device used in all method of index number construction is to be average
the relative change in either quantities or prices since relatives are comparable and
can be added even though the data from which they were derived cannot
themselves be added. For example, if wheat production is gone up to 110% of the
previous year’s production and cotton production has gone up to 105%; it is possible
to average the two percentages as they have gone up by 107.5%. This assumes that
both have equal weights; but if wheat production is twice as important as cotton,
percentage should be weighted 2 and 1. The average relatives obtained through this
process are called index numbers.
Index numbers are studied for making forecasts or inferences about the figure are
applied in the term of index numbers. In regression analysis, either the independent
or dependent variable or both may be in the form of index numbers. They are less
unwieldy than large numbers and are readily understandable.
These are of two broad types: simple and composite. The simple index is computed
for one variable whereas the composite is calculated from two or more variables.
Most of index numbers are composite in nature.
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Bibliography
Books
Gupta S.P., and Archana Gupta, Statistical Method, 7th Ed., Sultan Chand & Sons,
New Delhi, 2007, pp. 9.1-9.15.
Levin, Richard and David S. Rubin, “Statistics for Management”, 7th Ed., Prentice
Hall of India.
Siegel, Andrew F., “Practice of Business Statistics”, 4th Ed., Irwin McGraw Hill.
Web Site
www.encyclopedia.com/ -
www.wikipedia.org/ -
www.bseindia.com/ -
www.investopedia.com/-
www.thehindubusinessline.com/-
unstats.un.org/unsd/industry/docs/F1.pdf/-
dacnet.nic.in/eands/Appendix%20II.pdf /-
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