Limited
Reliance Restricted
25 October 2018
25 October 2018
Reliance Restricted
Ernst & Young Transaction The contents of our Report have been reviewed by the management of TDHL, who have confirmed to us its factual accuracy.
Advisory Services Limited
2 Takutai Square We reserve the right, but are under no obligation, to review all calculations included or referred to in this opinion and, if we
Britomart, Auckland 1010 consider it necessary, to revise our valuation in light of new information, inaccuracies, or alterations to the information
P O Box 2146, Auckland 1140 provided.
Tel: +64 9 377 4790
Fax: +64 9 309 8137 Our work commenced on 4 September 2018 and was completed on 25 October 2018.
ey.com/nz We appreciate the opportunity to provide our services to TDHL. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions
about this engagement or if we may be of any further assistance.
Yours sincerely,
Ernst & Young Transaction Advisory Services Limited
1
Executive Summary
Engagement overview 6
Our approach 8
Valuation results 9
Sources of information
► Information provided by TDHL management in telephone calls and in email
correspondence
► Information provided by AEL management at meetings, in telephone calls, and
in email correspondence
► Information sourced from:
► S&P Capital IQ
► Oxford Economics
► Reserve Bank of New Zealand
► Thomson Reuters
► BMI Research
► Commerce Commission
► AEL company website
Our approach Except for Infratec, we have valued AEL’s non regulated businesses using the
capitalisation of maintainable earnings (CME) method. We have based the
In addition to AEL’s regulated electricity business, the company also has a wholly
earnings multiples on observed publicly listed comparable companies and
owned subsidiary, NETcon Limited, and joint ventures On Metering Limited and
transactions.
Rockgas Timaru Limited.
The future maintainable earnings (FME) estimate for each company is based on
historical EBITDA and on forecasts. AEL management has provided forecasts for
NETcon, Infratec, Infratec Renewables, and the fibre network business. The fibre
network business sits within AEL and is valued on a stand alone basis and added
to the value of the lines business as a surplus asset. The market value of a rental
property has also been considered separately and added to the overall value of
AEL.
Intercompany debt is excluded in deriving the equity values from the computed
enterprise values. For the purposes of the valuation, intercompany debt was treated
as equity. The table below summarises our methodology per company.
Valuation approach
% ownership Methodology
We have used a sum of the parts approach to value the Alpine Energy Group. Each Alpine Energy Limited 100% DCF
company is valued on a stand alone basis. The resulting individual values are NETcon Limited 100% CME
weighted by the group’s ownership and summed to arrive at the value for the group. Infratec Ltd 100% NAV orderly realisation
We have derived the cash flows of the regulated business of AEL using the Infratec Renewables (Rarotonga) Ltd 100% CME
regulatory EBITDA from public information disclosures and management forecasts On Metering Limited 50% CME
for depreciation, capital expenditures and working capital. Management has Rockgas Timaru Limited 50% CME
provided a 10-year forecast but we have elected to utilise the discounted cash flow
(DCF) method until FY25 when the fourth regulatory period ends.
Valuation summary
Background
We have performed a valuation of Alpine Energy Limited in accordance with the terms of our Engagement
Agreement dated 4 September 2018.
The valuation is prepared for the purposes of assisting TDHL management in its assessment of the Fair
Value of its investment in AEL for financial reporting purposes.
The valuation date is 31 March 2018. The standard of value applied is Fair Value. We have summarised our
Alpine Energy Group 182,351 194,098 206,081 valuation in the table on the left.
TDHL's share 47.5% 47.5% 47.5%
Our assessment of the Fair Value of 100% of the equity in AEL lies in the range of $182.4 million to
Alpine Energy Group, 47.5% 86,617 92,196 97,889
Sources: EYTAS analysis
$206.1 million with a mid-point of $194.1 million.
Cross checks
2
Valuation analysis
Valuation of AEL 12
Valuation of NETcon 15
Valuation of Infratec 16
Valuation of Rockgas 18
Valuation of On Metering 19
► Deducted .
►
Timaru District Holdings Limited: Valuation of Alpine Energy Limited | Page 11 of 36
25 October 2018
We have analysed comparable listed peers for the fibre business and obtained
current and forward looking multiples. Considering that most of the comparable
companies have materially higher revenues,
and due to the limitations in the information provided
to us,
.
We have summarised the details of the comparable companies in
The historical
EBITDA multiple
We have obtained multiples for comparable listed peers and transactions of
companies operating in the same industry.
Considering that most of the comparable companies have higher revenues, the
and the limitations
in the information provided to us,
of Infratec.
We have obtained data for comparable listed peers and transactions of companies
operating in the same industry.
Considering that most of the comparable companies have higher revenues, the
and the limitations
in the information provided to us,
We have obtained data for comparable listed peers and transactions of companies
operating in the same industry.
Considering that most of the comparable companies have higher revenues, the
and the limitations
in the information provided to us,
.
We have summarised the details of the comparable companies in and
of the transactions in
We have obtained data for comparable listed peers and transactions of companies
operating in the same industry.
Considering that most of the comparable companies have higher revenues, the
, and the limitations
in the information provided to us,
3
Appendices
Appendix A: Disclaimers 21
Appendix N: Abbreviations 35
Disclaimers
Independence and impartiality The valuation assumes the client has no information or knowledge of any facts or
EYTAS has no interest in the business being valued. This valuation review has not material information not specifically noted in our report which would reasonably be
been undertaken on a contingent or success fee basis. Its only role has been the expected to affect the conclusions of the valuation.
preparation of this report. Review of opinion
Confidentiality EYTAS reserves the right, but is under no obligation, to review all calculations
Our valuation opinion is strictly confidential to the Management of Timaru District included or referred to in this opinion and, if we consider it necessary, to revise our
Holdings Limited. valuation in light of any information, inaccuracies, or alterations to the information
provided by Management relevant to this valuation, which was in existence on the
Limitation of liability valuation date and becomes known to us after the date of this opinion.
EYTAS total civil liability (including interest and costs) to you, concerning the Interviews
subject matter in this opinion shall be limited to the amount agreed in our
Engagement Agreement dated 4 September 2018. The valuation and opinion assume that any persons interviewed were competent to
answer the questions, and that we were given the opportunity to interview every
Indemnification person necessary to satisfactorily answer each question.
Timaru District Holdings Limited has agreed to indemnify EYTAS in respect of any Advance drafts
liability arising from any third party claim.
Advance drafts of this opinion were provided to TDHL in order to check the factual
Valuation date and purpose accuracy and completeness of information provided to us. While certain changes
The valuation is valid only on the date indicated and for the purpose stated, and is may have been made to this report as a result of the circulation of the draft report,
not to be applied by implication to any other matters. there was no material alteration to the methodology employed or opinion reached
by us.
Reliance on information
Third party information
This opinion reflects our assessment of the material factors based on the prevailing
business and economic conditions existing on the date of the opinion. In forming Where it is stated in the report that information has been supplied to us by another
our opinion, we have also relied on information and assumptions provided by TDHL party, this information is believed to be reliable at the time of receipt but we will
management about future events. Inevitably, such conditions and assumptions may accept no responsibility should it be subsequently proven to be inaccurate.
change, with potentially material effect on the opinion we have expressed. Publication
We have relied on the information supplied by TDHL management and set out in Neither the whole nor any part of our opinion or valuation, nor any reference
the Engagement Overview section. Our duties, while involving an assessment of thereto, may be included in any published document, circular or statement, nor
information provided and commenting as necessary, do not extend to verifying the otherwise published or disclosed in any way without our written approval of the
accuracy of the information, and we have assumed its authenticity and exact form and context of such publication or disclosure. Such approval is required
completeness. We have not audited or reviewed the information provided, nor have whether or not EYTAS is referred to by name and whether or not the opinion is
we been required to do so. combined with others.
Timaru District Holdings Limited: Valuation of Alpine Energy Limited | Page 21 of 36
25 October 2018
► Determination of an appropriate capitalisation multiple which will reflect a This methodology is appropriate where a business or company consists largely of
purchaser's required rate of return, risks inherent in the business, future growth trading assets such as real estate; is not trading; is not making an adequate return
prospects and alternative investment opportunities; on assets; or where there are surplus or non-operating assets.
► Separate assessment of surplus or non-operating assets and liabilities, which Comparable Transactions
have not been taken into account in the estimation of FME.
Public information of comparable transactions can provide a useful basis for
► This methodology is the most commonly used method for the valuation of assessing value, or alternatively for assessing the reasonableness of values
companies or businesses that have a proven operating history and a consistent derived according to one or more of the alternative approaches outlined above.
earnings trend. This methodology is not suitable for start-up businesses, Comparable transaction data is, by its nature, often difficult to obtain and in many
businesses experiencing strong earnings growth, cyclical businesses or those cases will be confidential due to its commercial sensitivity. Furthermore, any
that have uneven cash flows or capital expenditure requirements. transaction will be subject to its own particular circumstances, which will need to be
recognised when making a comparison. That notwithstanding, transactions which
► A capitalisation multiple is most commonly applied to either earnings before
have occurred within the same or similar industries, especially where the
interest and taxation (EBIT), earnings before depreciation, amortisation, interest
transaction is of a similar size, can provide a valuable comparison.
and taxation (EBITDA) or net profit after taxation (NPAT). Earnings multiples
applied to NPAT are known as Price Earnings (PE) multiples. Industry Rules of Thumb
► Earnings multiples are estimated using data for comparable publicly traded Within certain industries or for certain types of businesses, “rules of thumb”, or
companies, which generally reflect the price payable for a minority parcel of industry benchmarks may exist, that can be used to assess the value of a particular
shares. In assessing an appropriate multiple, there is consideration of factors business or as a cross check. For example, certain types of retail businesses may
such as premium for control (to the extent it exists), and discounts for sometimes be valued according to a multiple of turnover.
marketability and liquidity in the case of unlisted companies.
Capitalisation of Dividends
Dividend valuations involve the capitalisation of the estimated future maintainable
dividend stream from the investment, using a capitalisation rate which reflects an
investor's required rate of return and including a separate assessment of the
dividends (if any) flowing from the disposal of any surplus assets and liabilities.
Net Asset Value
Asset valuations involve the determination of the net realisable value of the assets
used in the business on the basis of an assumed orderly realisation. This value
includes an allowance for the reasonable costs of carrying out the sale of assets
including tax and the time value of money. This is not a valuation on the basis of a
forced sale, where the assets might be sold at values materially different from their
market value.
EBITDA multiple
Company Country Market Capitalization (NZD'm) Revenue (NZD'm) Assets (NZD'm) LFY NFY NFY+1
Superior Plus Corp. Canada 1,889 2,679 2,625 9.2x 8.8x 8.3x
UGI Corporation United States 10,620 8,470 16,027 8.7x 8.9x 8.2x
South Jersey Industries, Inc. United States 3,089 1,751 5,444 13.8x 10.6x 9.7x
Northwest Natural Gas Company United States 2,290 1,074 4,282 9.6x 11.2x 10.0x
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. United States 4,504 3,590 8,786 9.0x 8.7x 8.1x
New Jersey Resources Corporation United States 4,854 3,139 5,436 20.4x 15.9x 15.2x
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. United States 1,867 1,644 3,005 11.0x 9.6x 9.1x
ONE Gas, Inc. United States 4,773 2,169 7,334 10.9x 11.3x 10.7x
Atmos Energy Corporation United States 12,916 3,819 14,875 12.3x 12.1x 10.7x
National Fuel Gas Company United States 6,100 2,186 8,446 8.2x 8.6x 8.1x
Spire Inc. United States 4,830 2,409 9,059 13.2x 12.0x 11.6x
Chesapeake Utilities Corporation United States 1,589 870 1,997 12.1x 12.1x 11.1x
Fulcrum Utility Services Limited United Kingdom 249 68 68 18.2x 13.5x 9.4x
Star Group, L.P. United States 722 1,832 933 8.3x 5.1x 5.9x
AmeriGas Partners, L.P. United States 5,135 3,395 5,617 11.4x 10.2x 9.9x
Ferrellgas Partners, L.P. United States 419 2,577 2,149 11.7x 9.1x 8.3x
Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. Spain 32,818 39,420 80,041 10.1x 8.9x 8.4x
List of abbreviations
Abbreviation Definition
AEL Alpine Energy Limited
CME Capitalisation of maintainable earnings
DCF Discounted cash flows
EBIT Earnings before interest and tax
EBITDA Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation
EV Enterprise value
EYTAS Ernst & Young Transaction Advisory Services
FME Future Maintainable Earnings
FY Financial year ending 31 March
Infratec Infratec Limited
Infratec Renewables Infratec Renewables (Rarotonga) Limited
k Thousand
KPI Key performance indicator
MAR Maximum allowable revenue
MRP Market risk premium
NAV Net asset value
NETcon NETcon Limited
NZD or $ New Zealand Dollar
On Metering On Metering Limited
PPE Property, plant, and equipment
RBNZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Rockgas Rockgas Timaru Limited
TDHL Timaru District Holdings Limited
Valuation date 31 March 2018
WACC Weighted average cost of capital
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