MEMBERS • THIS IS FOR THE EXCLUSIVE USE OF TRULYRICH CLUB MEMBERS • THIS IS FOR THE EXCLUSIVE USE OF TRULYRICH CLUB MEMBERS
THIS IS FOR THE EXCLUSIVE USE OF TRULYRICH CLUB MEMBERS • THIS IS FOR THE EXCLUSIVE USE OF TRULYRICH CLUB MEMBERS • THIS IS FOR THE EXCLUSIVE USE OF TRULYRICH CLUB MEMBERS • THIS IS FOR THE EXCLUSIVE USE OF TRULYRICH CLUB MEMBERS
As the year closes, I’d like to share our fearless predictions for 2016.
Obviously, no one can get a 100 percent score on these predictions because no one, unless you’re watching
a Harry Potter movie, holds a crystal ball. If we had one, then you’re not reading TrulyRichClub’s Stocks Update, but
Madame Auring’s Stocks Update.
Predictions are so difficult to do because so many things can happen which are beyond our control: war,
catastrophes, politics, world economy. Will China’s economy remain in the dumps? Will Donald Trump be the new
US President? Will our President be Duterte, Binay, Poe, Mar, or Miriam? Will BIR lower our taxes—and thus infuse
more cash into our economy? And the most important question—will Aldub become off-screen lovers next year?
Haha.
Seriously, two major things give us a lot of concern for 2016.
First, the generally lower profits of our Philippine companies. We foresee that these mediocre profits will
continue for 2016. Remember that the stock market is all about earnings, earnings, earnings. If the earnings are
not there, we predict a general sideways or downward motion for 2016 for the entire market.
Our second biggest concern is the possible OFW remittance slowdown due to the lower oil and other
commodities prices.
EEI is an example: Their Middle East projects is under arbitration and they are sending some Filipino workers
back home.
Once the OFW numbers slow down, expect more volatility in the market. Possible: we may have to lower
Target Prices of some of our recommended companies.
In the face of sideways or downward motion for 2016, what should we do?
First, pop open a wine bottle and celebrate. (And for those allergic to alcohol like me, open a bottle of
sparkling grape juice.) Because we LOVE sideways and downward markets. They are the best friends of long-term
investors.
Amateur investors always want the stock market to go up, up, up. They don’t understand that’s the worst
thing that can happen. Because your profits will be very tiny.
If you want great profits, you want markets to go down!
So when you buy stocks during a sideways and downward markets (and we hope that happens in 2016),
that’s when you make the biggest profits.
So if our predictions will come true for 2016, Non-TrulyRichClub Stock Market investors will be sad in 2016.
They’ll be crying and gnashing their teeth, throwing pity parties and sob stories. But we, TrulyRichClub members,
will be smiling from ear to ear.
Happy investing!
Bo Sanchez
P.S. God Is Raising an Army of Millionaire Makers. Are you ready to say YES and
bless the world? I urge you: Say YES to receive power and wisdom in TrulyRichClub’s
biggest financial conference, WEALTHSUMMIT2016. Learn how to prosper so that
you can prosper others! Because I believe the TrulyRichClub is not just a
club but a massive world-changing movement that will help one
million good people become rich. And it starts with YOU! To join
WEALTHSUMMIT2016, go to www.trulyrichclub.com/wealthsummit
now.
Still Sideways
By Mike Viñas
Last November, after listed companies announce their 3rd quarter earnings and the government announced
third quarter GDP growth, we were looking forward that it would finally trigger a push in the market to go back
on an uptrend. However, that didn’t happen. Unfortunately, what we saw were mix results that did not make any
bullish or bearish sentiments grow in the market.
In fairness, the 3rd quarter earnings of listed companies improved in comparison to the 1st half of the year.
I say this because there were fewer companies that posted below than expected earnings during the first nine
months of the year compared to the 1st half of the year. This is based on COL Research and TRC earnings estimates.
The country’s 3rd quarter GDP also remained strong, increasing to 6 percent from 5.8 percent in the 2nd
quarter and 5 percent in the 1st quarter. This
growth was the 3rd fastest in Asia following
China at 6.9 percent and Vietnam at 6.8
percent. This GDP growth was driven by
the resilience of consumer spending which
went higher by 6.3 percent, the increase
in government spending to 17.4, and the
strength of the BPO sector, allowing the
increase of exports services.
However, median earnings growth of
listed companies covered by COL slowed
down to 6.5 percent during the 1st nine
months of the year from 11 percent during
the 1st half of the year. Although there
were fewer companies reporting below expected earnings results, this was primarily caused by analysts’ lower
expectations.
Furthermore, even if the GDP growth was improving each quarter, it still missed the consensus growth
estimate of 6.3 percent. This below than expected results was most likely caused by the slowdown in capital
formation growth to 8.9 percent during the 3rd quarter from 17.4 percent during the 2nd quarter and 11.6 percent
during the 1st quarter. Growth in capital formation slowed down when private sector construction spending fell by
0.4 percent during the 3rd quarter.
Along with the absence of catalysts in our market, analysts are also somewhat concerned about the rise in
government bond rates recently. One of the reasons of it going up is concerns that the BSP’s plan to implement
the interest rate corridor system by the 2nd quarter of next year will lead to higher rates. Moreover, the increasing
possibility that the US Fed will hike rates this December is also causing some pressure on our interest rates to go up.
So with higher interest rates, investors will require higher returns for owning stocks This will then lead to renewed
pressure in the stock market.
Because of the the factors mentioned above, our market is most likely going to remain sideways in movement
until the end of the year. This gives us good time to accumulate our SAM stocks at lower prices.
Happy investing!
Merry Christmas!
P.S. If you or a friend would like to learn more on the basics of investing in the stock market, I conduct free seminars
every Friday at the COL Financial Training Center teaching the basics of long-term investing in the stock market.
You may sign-up for these seminars at www.colfinancial.com.
I also give powerful talks on various engaging and practical topics every Sunday at Feast ATC in Cinema 2 of
Alabang Town Center. The Mass starts at 9AM and The Feast kicks-off at 10M. Come by. It’s for free!
Here are our SAM Tables for (as of December 11, 2015 closing).
STOCK Current Price Buy Below Price Target Price Action to Take
AC 725.00 734.78 845.00 Continue buying
BDO 100.20 102.60 118.00 Continue buying
CEB 82.40 112.00 140.00 Stop buying for now
EEI 5.20 10.00 12.50 Stop buying for now
FGEN 22.00 27.28 34.10 Continue buying
FLI 1.83 1.87 2.34 Stop buying for now
GTCAP 1,223.00 1,226.09 1410.00 Continue buying
MBT 77.20 86.09 99.00 Stop buying for now
MEG 4.20 4.66 5.83 Continue buying
SMPH 21.20 19.83 22.80 Stop buying for now
URC 181.00 181.74 209.00 Stop Buying for now
Mike Viñas is an Investment Trainer of COL Financial Group, Inc. He is a Certified Securities
Representative and Certified Investment Solicitor.
ESTIMATED
STOCK TIME PRICE ESTIMATED
STOCKS TIME
SYMBOL RECOMMENDED RANGE RETURN
HELD
D&L Industries DNL February 2013 to April 2014 14 Months P6.45 to P10.00 44%
PLDT TEL June 2013 to April 2014 10 Months P2,902.00 to P3,260.00 16%
Banco De Oro BDO April 2013 to August 2014 16 Months P89.60 to P93.00 24%
Meralco MER January 2013 to April 2013 3 Months P268.00 to P377.00 28.05%
First Phlippine
FPH June 2011 to June 2013 25 Months P63.18 to P95.20 32.92%
Holdings
JG Summit Holdings JGS February 12 to October 2013 18 Months P25.75 to P43.50 39.96%
D&L Industries DNL February 2013 to April 2014 14 Months P6.45 to P10.00 44%
P2,902.00 to
PLDT TEL June 2013 to April 2014 10 Months 16%
P3,260.00
Banco De Oro BDO April 2013 to August 2014 16 Months P89.60 to P93.00 24%
(Disclaimer: Past performance doesn’t guarantee that you’ll have the exact same results in the future.
After all, your earnings all depend on the market’s performance.)