APPE NDIX 6

Human Error Probabilities

The following is an overview of the range of human error rates. It must be emphasized that
these are broad guidelines. In any particular situation the human-response reliability will be
governed by a number of shaping factors which were explained in Chapter 9. They include:

Environmental factors – Physical

– Organizational
– Personal
Intrinsic error – Selection of Individuals
– Training
– Experience
Stress factors – Personal
– Circumstantial

The following examples are specific assessments for various tasks which were part of site
safety studies arried out by the author. They have been obtained from a combination and com-
parison of:
• Anecdotal site data
• HEART assessments
• TESEO assessments
It must be stressed that these are examples only and involve specific site scenarios and therefore
specific shaping factors. They should not be used other than as a guide. In general they apply
to well managed scenarios involving good training and documentation in reasonably well con-
trolled environments. Less benign factors would easily increase the error rates by an order of
magnitude.

Task Assessed Error Probability

Fail to respond to a normal temp/pressure/level alarm 0.02
Close or open manual valve in error 0.02
Wrong valve at alignment 0.03
Tanker driver drives-off despite SO2 delivery incomplete 0.0005
Fail to react to jet fire on a vessel 0.2
Supervisor does not notice a subordinate technician’s error 0.5
(e.g. failure to close a valve)

Reliability, Maintainability and Risk

Copyright © 2017 David J. Smith. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 411
412  Appendix 6

Task Assessed Error Probability

Fail to carry out 2 yearly maintenance as planned to the vessel 0.006
Fail to continue to hold open the oil delivery arm valve by deliberate inhibit 0.2
Fail to dip tank prior to new distillation run 0.2
Fail to select goggles prior to entering laser laboratory (regular visitor) 0.01
Pass rail signal at red 0.0002

The following table presents a broader range of human error probabilities in order to provide
some perspective.
Error probability (per task)
Read/ reason Physical operation Everyday yardstick
Simplest Possible Task
Read single alphanumeric wrongly 0.0002
Read 5-letter word with good resolution wrongly 0.0003
Select wrong switch (with mimic diagram) 0.0005
Fail to notice major cross-roads 0.0005
Routine Simple Task
Read a checklist or digital display wrongly 0.001
Set switch (multiposition) wrongly 0.001
Check for wrong indicator in an array 0.003
Wrongly carry out visual inspection for a defined 0.003
criterion (e.g. leak)
Fail to correctly replace PCB 0.004
Select wrong switch among similar 0.005
Read analogue indicator wrongly 0.005
Read 10-digit number wrongly 0.006
Leave light on 0.003
Routine Task with Care Needed
Mate a connector wrongly 0.01
Fail to reset valve after some related task 0.01
Record information or read graph wrongly 0.01
Let milk boil over 0.01
Type or punch character wrongly 0.01
Do simple arithmetic wrongly 0.01–0.03
Wrong selection – vending machine 0.02
Wrongly replace a detailed part 0.02
Do simple algebra wrongly 0.02
Read 5-letter word with poor resolution wrongly 0.03
Put 10 digits into calculator wrongly 0.05
Dial 10 digits wrongly 0.06
 Human Error Probabilities  413

Error probability (per task)

Read/ reason Physical operation Everyday yardstick
Complicated Non-Routine Task
Fail to notice adverse indicator when reaching for 0.1
wrong switch or item
Fail to recognize incorrect status in roving 0.1
inspection
New workshift – fail to check hardware, unless 0.1
specified
General (high stress) 0.25
Fail to notice wrong position of valves 0.5
Fail to act correctly after 1 min in emergency 0.9
situation

This final table presents an overall view of the range of human error probabilities:
Activity Error Probability
Activity performed under extreme stress (e.g. a major incident in a plant or refinery) 0.99
Skilled task or task performed under some moderate stress factors 0.1
Average scenario as shown in the first part of this Appendix 0.01
Highly practiced straightforward task, well documented, well motivated etc. 0.001
Approximately the minimum error probability to be assumed (e.g. signal passed at 0.0001
red – see above)