Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: China’s
‘Frankenstein’ Moment?
November 25, 2019

We request your assessment of the following issues:

Q1. Where is China's claim to ninety percent of South China Sea rooted?
ANSWER: The present-day claim by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to the South
China Sea is based on an eleven-dash line map produced by a government department
in the Republic of China around 1947-48. The PRC dropped two of the dash lines in the
early 1950s drawn in the Gulf of Tonkin (Beibu Gulf).
The PRC formally presented the nine-dash line map to the United Nations
Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf in May 2009. It should be noted
that the U.S. Department of State conducted a study of China’s nine-dash line maps
and found that the location of the nine-dashes on maps changed over time and moved
closer to the coast lines of littoral states. The State Department estimated that China
was claiming approximately 62 percent of the South China Sea.
In addition to the cartographic history, the PRC’s claim to the South China Sea is based
on a highly questionable modern narrative that ancient Chinese dynasties were the
first to discover, name, occupy and administer all the land features in the South China
Sea.
Q2. In response to China's efforts to etch the disputed map in Vietnamese daily life
through imported products, the Ministry of Industry and Trade told importers on
Wednesday to closely inspect and reject goods that contain the map. With high-risk
goods like maps and gadgets, they demand importers elicit a written statement from
the sellers to affirm their products don't contain this map. How will this affect the
import trade activities between the two countries? How effective is this strategy?
ANSWER: Vietnam has a trade deficit with mainland China of around $24 billion. It is
likely that Vietnam’s ban on goods from China that contain the nine-dash line map will
have negligible impact on two-way trade. For several years now Vietnam has been
taking action to stop Chinese goods from entering Vietnam with the offending map.
This is will continue to be a constant struggle that will be largely but not totally
effective. For example, several years ago Vietnam discovered that globes of the world
imported from Europe (but manufactured in China) contained the nine-dash line map
of the South China Sea.
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Q3. One of the high-profile cases concerns DreamWorks's latest animated film
Abominable last month. Vietnam removed the movie from cinemas after viewers
spotted the map featured in a scene one week after the movie was released. It also
demoted its Acting Director of the Cinema Department, Nguyen Thi Thu Ha for letting
Abominable be screened in the first place. How effective are these responses against
the infiltration of the map into Vietnam?
ANSWER: Because of the South China Sea dispute, anti-Chinese sentiment in Vietnam
is toxic. The Vietnamese public will be vigilant and prompt in reporting any offending
imports from China. Now that an official has been disciplined, this will cause other
officials involved in importing Chinese goods to be extremely vigilant to exclude items
bearing the nine-dash line map. Because China’s promotion of the nine-dash line map
is so widespread there are likely to be occasions when a product is introduced into
Vietnam despite its checks. This will be a minor yet highly emotional domestic issue.
Q4. Earlier this month, the map was discovered in a textbook used by a private
university in Hanoi after having distributed hundreds of it to its students. The
university is now reclaiming them. The book was bought from a foreign book importer.
This is the case that we know to date. Since academic content like this can exert an
influence on students' understanding, what does it say about Vietnamese
government's control of foreign textbooks or books in general?
ANSWER: Examples of Vietnamese textbooks containing Chinese claims can be found
over a decade ago. Indeed, Chinese propaganda included copies of these texts to
argue that Vietnam recognized China’s claims. The Ministry of Information and
Communication will step up its surveillance of foreign publications in an effort to
eradicate those that contain either the nine-dash line or a pro-China narrative.
Q5. Should Vietnam take China to an international tribunal like the Philippines did in
2013 to assert its sovereignty?
ANSEWER: The Vietnamese government is facing domestic pressure on two fronts.
First, citizens are demanding that their government in effect “name and shame” China
by directly calling it out by name. The second front is pressure from below to take legal
action under the mandatory dispute settlement clauses of the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) following the precedent set by the
Philippines.
Under UNCLOS the findings of an Arbitral Tribunal are final, not subject to appeal, and
must be complied with immediately. However, UNCLOS contains no provisions for
enforcement or penalties for non-compliance.
Recently, on 6 November, Vietnam’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Le Hoai Trung,
gave the keynote address to the 11th international conference on the South China Sea
sponsored by the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam in Hanoi. Trung said that Vietnam
preferred negotiations to settle its maritime dispute with China but noted there were
other options on the table. Trung stated:
“We know that these measures include fact-finding, mediation, conciliation,
negotiation, arbitration and litigation measures. The UN Charter and UNCLOS 1982
have sufficient mechanisms for us to apply those measures.” This appears to be the
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first time that a Vietnamese government official has publicly endorsed taking legal
action against China.
It should be noted that Vietnam included the measures mentioned by Trung in its
input into the confidential ASEAN-China Single Draft Negotiating Text that was
adopted in August 2018.
At the moment, it appears that Vietnam is using the threat of legal action to pressure
China into refraining from creating another incident like the recent three-month
confrontation in the waters near Vanguard Bank.
If China does resume such provocative intrusions into Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic
Zone it is highly likely Vietnam will instigate international legal action.
Q6. Do you think there will be a "Dr Frankenstein" moment where China realizes what
it has been doing in the South China Sea and the repercussions of its actions?
ANSWER: China will never view itself as a “monster”. It will modulate its behavior
while playing the long-term game of dominating and controlling the South China Sea.
China has in most respects already achieved this goal. It has completed construction
and militarization on its seven artificial islands. Its navy, coast guard, maritime militia
and fishing fleet are permanently on station in the South China Sea. As the stand-off
at Vanguard Bank demonstrates, Chinese vessels only need to replenish at one of the
artificial islands to stay on station for prolonged periods of time.

Media Identification: Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of

New South Wales, Canberra or Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of
New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: China’s ‘Frankenstein’
Moment?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 25, 2019. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.