600000
500000
wisatawan
400000
300000
200000
100000
Month Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Winters' Method Plot for Jumlah Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Provinsi Bali
Additive Method
Variable
600000
Actual
Fits
Smoothing Constants
500000
Alpha (level) 0.2
Gamma (trend) 0.2
Delta (seasonal) 0.2
wisatawan
200000
100000
1 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99
Index
Smoothing Constants
500000
Alpha (lev el) 0.2
Gamma (trend) 0.2
Delta (seasonal) 0.2
wisatawan
400000 Accuracy Measures
MAPE 6
MAD 18989
300000 MSD 1098365479
200000
100000
1 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99
Index
40000
30000
Limit
20000
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Lambda
0.00265625 Lambda
(using 95.0% confidence)
Estimate 1.00
0.00265600
Lower CL *
Upper CL *
0.00265575
Rounded Value 1.00
0.00265550
StDev
0.00265525
0.00265500
0.00265475
0.00265450
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Lambda
Autocorrelation Function
(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lag
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lag
1.0
0.8
0.6
Partial Autocorrelation
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lag