FORECASTING (PERAMALAN) Compatibility Mode PDF
FORECASTING (PERAMALAN) Compatibility Mode PDF
FORECASTING (PERAMALAN) Compatibility Mode PDF
Forecasting Method
Simple Regression
Survey techniques
ARIMA
Neural Networks
References :
Combination of Time Series – Causal Methods Makridakis et al.
Intervention Model Hanke and Reitsch
Transfer Function (ARIMAX) Wei, W.W.S.
VARIMA (VARIMAX) Box, Jenkins and Reinsel
Neural Networks
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Klasifikasi Metode Peramalan : Ilustrasi
M d l Matematis
Model M i …
Forecasting Method
Examples : Examples :
¨ sales
l (t) = f ((sales
l (t-1), sales
l (t-2), …)) ¨ sales
l (t) = f ((price
i (t), advert
d t(t), …))
Examples :
¨ sales(t) = f (sales(t-1), advert(t), advert(t-1), …)
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Klasifikasi Model Time Series : Berdasarkan
B t k atau
Bentuk t Fungsi
F i…
State-dependent,
p , time-varying
y g para-
p
T
Transfer
f F Function
ti (ARIMAX)
meter and long-memory models
References :
Timo Terasvirta, Dag Tjostheim and Clive W.J. Granger, (1994)
“Aspects
Aspects of Modelling Nonlinear Time Series”
Series
Handbook of Econometrics, Volume IV, Chapter 48.
Edited by R.F. Engle and D.I. McFadden
5
POLA
O DATA Time Series …
e Se es
General Time Series
General Time Series “PATTERN”
PATTERN
Stationer
Trend (linear or nonlinear)
Seasonal (additive or multiplicative)
( p )
Cyclic
Calendar Variation
Calendar Variation
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General of Time Series Patterns …
7
Contoh DATA EKONOMI … 1
Time S eries Plot of Inflasi
3
1
Eids holiday
effects
2 12
12 11
12
1
12
Inflasi
11
1 11
-1
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Contoh DATA EKONOMI … 2
Krisis di Indonesia
Pertengahan 1997
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Contoh DATA EKONOMI … 3
Krisis di Indonesia Terjadi
Mulai Pertengahan 1997
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Model‐model Time Series Regression
g
1. Model Regresi untuk LINEAR TREND
Yt = a + b.t + error Ö t = 1, 2, … (dummy waktu)
2. Model Regresi untuk Data SEASONAL (variasi konstan)
Yt = a + b1 D1 + … + bS‐1 DS‐1 + error
dengan :
: D1, D D2, …, D
DS‐1
S 1 adalah dummy waktu dalam
adalah dummy waktu dalam
satu periode seasonal.
3. Model Regresi untuk Data dengan LINEAR TREND dan SEASONAL
(
(variasi konstan)
)
Yt = a + b.t + c1 D1 + … + cS‐1 DS‐1 + error
 Gabungan model 1 dan 2.
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Problem 4: Hasil Regresi Trend dg MINITAB
Problem 4: Hasil Regresi Trend dg MINITAB … (continued)
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Problem 4: Hasil Regresi Trend dg MINITAB
Problem 4: Hasil Regresi Trend dg MINITAB … (continued)
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Problem 5: Regresi Data Seasonal … (Data Electrical Usage)
Problem 5: Regresi Data Seasonal (Data Electrical Usage)
Time Series Plot (Data
Time Series Plot (Data
seasonal)
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Problem 5: Hasil regresi dengan MINITAB
Problem 5: Hasil regresi dengan MINITAB …
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 3 646802 215601 226.65 0.000
Residual Error 16 15220 951
Total 19 662022
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Problem 6: Regresi Data Trend Linear dan Seasonal
Problem 6: Regresi Data Trend Linear dan Seasonal …
Time Series Plot (Data trend
dan seasonal)
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Problem 6: Hasil regresi dengan MINITAB
Problem 6: Hasil regresi dengan MINITAB …
Dummy Variable
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Problem 6: Hasil regresi dengan MINITAB
Problem 6: Hasil regresi dengan MINITAB …
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Problem 6: Hasil regresi dengan MINITAB
Problem 6: Hasil regresi dengan MINITAB …
Forecast
Time Series Plot (Data dan
Ramalannya)
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Perbandingan ketepatan ramalan antar metode
Perbandingan ketepatan ramalan antar metode …
K
Kasus Sales Video Store
S l Vid St K
Kasus Sales Data Kuartalan
S l D t K t l
Winter’s Method :
Holt’s Method : Alpha (level): 0.4
Alpha (level): 0.202284
(level): 0 202284 Gamma (trend): 0.1
Gamma (trend): 0.234940 Delta (seasonal): 0.3
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Contoh
• Tahun 2000:
Penjualan mobil = Rp. 300 M
Indeks harga mobil = 135
• Tahun 2001:
Penjualan mobil = Rp. 350 M
Indeks harga mobil = 155
Pertanyaan:
• Berapa peningkatan nominal ?
Berapa peningkatan nominal ?
• Berapa peningkatan riilnya ?
21
Perhitungan
g
• Peningktan Nominal
Peningktan Nominal • Peningktan Riil
g
Penjualan tahun 2000
• Rp. 350 M –
p Rp. 300
p (Rp. 300M) (100/135)
M = Rp. 222,222 M
= Rp. 50 M Penjualan tahun 2001
(
(Rp. 350M) (100/155)
)( / )
= Rp. 225,806 M
Peningkatan:
225,806M – 222,222 M
= Rp. 3,584 M
Rp. 3,584 M
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Mr. Aringanu akan menganalisis laju pertumbuhan penjualan
toko yang menjual 70% mebeler dan 30% alat rumah tangga.
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Trend
Tahun Pertama Tahun Dasar
Thn X
Th Penjj (Y) X^2
P XY
1990 0 108 0 0
1991 1 119 1 119
1992 2 110 4 220
1993 3 122 9 366
1994 4 130 16 520
JMH 10 589 30 1225
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Trend
Titik Tengah sbg tahun Dasar
k h b h
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Trend
Eksponensial
k l
Thn X Penj (Y) Log Y X log Y
1990 -2 108 2.0334 -4.0668
1991 -1 119 2.0755 -2.0755
1992 0 110 2.0414 0
1993 1 122 2.0864 2.0864
1994 2 130 2.1139
2 1139 4.2279
4 2279
JMH 0 589 10.351 0.1719
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Trend Kuadratik
Trend Kuadratik
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Naïve Model
Naïve Model
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Average Methods
Average Methods
1. Simple Averages
³ obtained by finding the mean for all the relevant values and
g p
then using this mean to forecast the next period.
n Yt
Yt +1 = ∑
ˆ for stationary data
t =1 n
2. Moving Averages
³ obtained by finding the mean for a specified set of values and then
using this mean to forecast the next period
using this mean to forecast the next period.
(Y + Yt −1 + K + Yt − n +1 )
M t = Yˆt +1 = t for stationary data
n
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Average Methods …
Average Methods … (continued)
3. Double Moving Averages
³ one set of moving averages is computed, and then a second set is
computed as a moving average of the first set.
(Y + Yt −1 + K + Yt − n +1 )
(i). M t = Yˆt +1 = t
n
( M t + M t −1 + K + M t − n +1 )
(ii) M t′ =
(ii).
n
(iii). at = 2M t − M t′
2
(iv). bt = ( M t − M t′ )
n −1
Yˆt + p = at + bt p f
for a linear trend data
li t dd t
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MINITAB implementation
MINITAB implementation
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MINITAB implementation …
MINITAB implementation … (continued)
32
Moving Averages Result …
Moving Averages Result … (continued)
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Moving Averages VS Double Moving Averages
Moving Averages Double Moving Averages Results
Results
MA or Moving
Averages
DMA or Double
Moving Averages
MSE.MA = 132.67, MSE.DMA = 63.7
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Exponential Smoothing Methods
Exponential Smoothing Methods
2. The trend estimate :
Tt = β (At − At‐1) + (1 − β) Tt‐1
3. Forecast p periods into the future :
Yˆt + p = At + pTt
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Exponential Smoothing Adjusted for Trend and Seasonal
Variation : Winter’s Method
Variation : Winter’s Method
1. The exponentially smoothed series :
Y
At = α t + (1 − α ) ( At −1 + Tt −1)
St − L
2. The trend estimate :
Three
Tt = β ( At − At −1) + (1 − β )Tt −1 p
parameters
models
3. The seasonality estimate :
Y
St = γ t + (1 − γ ) St −1
At
4. Forecast p periods into the future :
Yˆt + p = ( At − pTt ) St − L + p
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SES: MINITAB implementation
SES: MINITAB implementation
SES dengan SES dengan
alpha 0,1 alpha 0,6 37
SES: MINITAB implementation
SES: MINITAB implementation … (
(continued)
i d)
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SES: MINITAB implementation
SES: MINITAB implementation … (
(continued)
i d)
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DES (Holt’ss Methods): MINITAB implementation …
DES (Holt Methods): MINITAB implementation (
(continued)
i d)
DES dengan alpha 0,3 dan beta 0,1
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DES: MINITAB implementation
DES: MINITAB implementation … (
(continued)
i d)
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Winter’ss Methods: MINITAB implementation
Winter Methods: MINITAB implementation
Winter’s Methods dengan alpha 0,4; beta 0,1 dan gamma 0,3
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Methods: MINITAB implementation …
Winter’ss Methods: MINITAB implementation
Winter (
(continued)
i d)
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