Pembangunan Kualitas Sumberdaya Manusia Menghadapi Era Revolusi

Industri 4.0.

Seminar Nasional Pertambangan, Universitas Negeri Padang

Padang, 14 November 2019

Ir. Resvani, M.B.A.

SECRETARY GENERAL
 Outline

Greetings PERHAPI

Introduction

Mining Industry in Indonesia

Mineral Commodity Strategic Issues

Conclusion
 Greatings
❑ Sekilas Tentang Pembicara
❑ Sekilas Tentang Perhapi

3

I r. R e s v a n i , M . B. A .
www.resvani.com
Biography
Current
2015 Founder & CEO TURA Group
2015 Founder Indonesian Mining Center of Excellence (IMCE)
2016 Ketua Tim Energy and Minerals Advisory (Dit. Energi BAPPENAS)
2018 Ketua Tim Penyusun Kebijakan Nasional Mineral (ESDM)
2018 Sekretris Jenderal (PERHAPI)
Previuos
❑ 2017 Advisor Mining and Energy Infrastructure, Kemenko Maritim
❑ 2005 11 tahun di corporate strategy PT Freeport Indonesia
❑ 2012 Tim inti renegosiasi KK PT FI
❑ 2015 Tim revisi UU No. 4 Tahun 2009
❑ 2012 Ketua Bidang Eksternal Perhapi
❑ 2015 Sekretaris Badan Eksekutif Dewan Pengembangan
Industri Pertambangan Indonesia
4
 Vision & Mission Perhapi 2018-2021
PERHAPI sebagai mitra strategis pemangku kepentingan, pusat rujukan
(center of references), pengembangan sumberdaya manusia
untuk memajukan pertambangan Indonesia
secara berkelanjutan dan bertanggungjawab.

5
 Strategic Programs
Center of References
❑ White Paper PERHAPI untuk RUU perubahan UU 4/2009 dan Kebijakan Nasional Mineral dan Batubara
❑ White Paper Good Mining Practicies PERHAPI yang mencakup aspek eksplorasi, Geoteknik, Perencanaan Tambang, Pemboran & Peledakan, Ventilasi &
Penirisan Tambang, Konservasi, Metalurgi, Kesehatan & Keselamatan Kerja, Lingkungan Hidup, Reklamasi & Mine Closure, Corporate Social Responsibility
❑ Respon terhadap berbagai isu isu pertambangan terkini

Competency of Member and Stakeholders Strategic Relation (Branding & Awareness)

❑ TPT, Save Indonesian Coal, Rock Mechanic, dll ❑ MoU kerjasama 3-party dengan Direktorat Jenderal
❑ Training untuk anggota dan stakeholder lewat LDP, Minerba dan World Bank dalam kajian dan training
❑ Mining for Jurnalis (Knowledge Sharing ke Wartawan) ❑ Kerjasama dengan organisasi profesi international
❑ Penguatan Competent Person PERHAPI ❑ Merintis chapter PERHAPI di Australia
❑ Melakukan Knowledge Sharing melalui WebBinar ❑ Mengaktifkan Majalah dan Sosial Media Perhapi
(menjangkau anggota-anggota dalam dan luar negeri ❑ Advokasi permasalahan stakeholder pertambangan

Ownership From Perhapi Member Good Governance In Perhapi Organization

❑ Melakukan survey berkala kepada seluruh anggota ❑ Perbaikan dan penyempurnaan sekretariat menuju
dalam rangka mendapatkan masukan mengenai World Class Standard sekretariat PERHAPI
program, kegiatan, atau hal lainnya yang bermanfaat ❑ pembuatan sistem informasi tata kelola
baik untuk anggota, maupun untuk organisasi kesekretariatan serta Key Performance Indicator &
❑ Routine report kegiatan dan keuangan SOP – SOP tata kelola organisasi
❑ Fresh and Green sebagai program baru untuk anggota ❑ Pengelolaan transaksi keuangan dan Pelaporan rutin
Amanat Kongres X Perhapi
❑ Revisi AD/ART dalam waktu 6 bulan (Batas waktu hak suara anggota, Sistem pemilihan evoting, Pemelihan ketua dan wakil ketua, dll
❑ Pembuatan Logo Baru PERHAPI, Pelaksanaan PERHAPI award, Verifikasi laporan keuangan dalam waktu 6 bulan
❑ Membuat tatakelola administrasi termasuk daerah, Mengkaji iuran anggota antara Daerah dan Pusat
6
 Introduction
❑Bermula dari Tambang

7
 Bayi Amerika Jaman Now………….
Senengnya Makannya logam……….
minumnya natural minyak &Gass……………
Hasil Tambang Mineral
Hasil Tambang Batubara
Analysis of Mining
Industry in Indonesia
❑ Internal Condition
(Resource Base View )

11
 Resource Based View analysis of
Indonesia’s Coal & Mineral Sector(Tangibles)
Physical
Tangible Resources Detail

Resource and Reserve Mineral and Coal resources and reserves in Indonesia is quite large.
Ranked 25th rank in best practice mineral in the world (Fraser Institute,
2018)
Financial
Tangible Resources Detail

Private Equity of Material sectors contribute until 87% of PE in Indonesia ($376.3million).

Indonesia For Mining is only 5%
National Bank 4 SOE banks and 117 private banks, total credit is 4.057 trillion IDR. For
Mining is only 3.8%
Indonesia Stock 381 billion IDR of investment trading in mining sector per day (IDX)
Exchange

Technological
Tangible Resources Detail
Proven Mining Process Open pit, open cast, quarry, long-wall, block caving, cut and fill stopping,
sub-level stopping, room and pillar, stopping and pillar, shrinkage stopping.
Proven Smelting Industry tree in Indonesia hasn’t complete
Process
Konsinyering BS RPJMN 2020-2024 Minerba 12
 Resource Based View analysis of
Indonesia’s Coal & Mineral subsector (Intangibles)
Human
Intangible Resources Detail

Human Resource for Mining 45.269 domestic manpowers and 828 expat manpowers in contract of work and 120.617
Industry in Indonesia domestic manpowers and 357 expat man powers in coal contract of work and also 22
Mining University, 5 Mining Institute, 2 Mining Academy and 7 Polytechnics that graduates
2000 mining human resource in average every year.
Competency System Engineer certification by PII, Competent person certification by KCMI, competency
certification by LSP and other technical ceritfication.

Innovation and Creativity

Intngible Resources Detail
Mining Researcher ITB, ESDM Tekmira, BPPT, Perhapi, Indonesia Mining Institue, Indominepro, etc.
Mining Research Lab ITB, PT Geoservices, SGS, Intertek, Tekmira, PT Succofindo, Surveyor Indonesia, etc.
SOP Most of the laboratory in Indonesia already has appropriate SOP

Konsinyering BS RPJMN 2020-2024 Minerba 13

Investment Attractiveness Index,
Policy Perception Index, etc.
(Fraser Institute, 2018)

PAGE 14
PAGE 15
PAGE 16
Investasi Asing di Sektor Pertambangan Pasca Kasus PT Freeport Indonesia dan Dampaknya bagi Perekonomian Nasional ( Resvani, 2017) PAGE 17
PAGE 18
PAGE 19
 KONDISI & TANTANGAN

*New Investment of Exploration

01 *Financing in Mining & Industry

*Technology, Innovation Digitalization

02 * Standard (GMP SNI, KCMI, SKKNI)

*Pengolahan dan Pemurnian Dalam Negeri

03 * Manufacturing Industry Growth

* Issue Pemanfaatan Batubara Masa Mendatang

04 * Blueprint Kebijakan Nasional Minerba

*Isu Regulasi, Pembinaan, Pengusahaan & Pengawasan:

05 *Revisi UU 04 Tahun 2009 & PP 23 Tahun 2010
*Isu Perpanjangan KK / PKP2B Menjadi IUPK

*Tambang Rakyat, Illigal Mining, Penegakan Hukum

*Modernisasi Perizinan, Pengusahaan ,Pengawasan
*Tataruang, Pesisir, Hutan Masalah Lahan
*Claim Kerusakan Lingkungan & Sosial

20
 Gambaran Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 2020 - 2024
PDB SISI PRODUKSI
RATA-RATA 2020-2024
Industri: Share industry logam dasar hanya
(SKENARIO RENDAH
5,3 – 7,0 berkisar 3% dari total industri,
DAN TINGGI) sedangkan share total industry
Pertanian: berkisar 20% PDB.
3,8 – 3,9
Kesuksesan value added mineral
Listrik: akan sangat berpengaruh bagi
4,4 – 4,8 pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia

Konstruksi:
5,8 – 6,2 PDB SISI PENGELUARAN
21
Transportasi: C: 5,1 – 5,3*
7,2 – 7,3 PERTUMBUHAN
Infokom: EKONOMI G: 4,3– 4,8
7,4 – 8,2
Jasa Keuangan:
6,3 – 7,2
5,4 – 6,0 I: 7,3 – 8,0

X: 5,3 – 7,7
Perdagangan:
5,5 – 6,2 Perhitungan Bappenas
(sangat sementara) M: 5,6 – 7,2
Pertambangan: * Termasuk konsumsi LNPRT
1,70 – 1,9 21
Source: Bappenas 2019
1.0 to 4.0
CONSERVATIVE THINKING
GDP (economy)
[C + I + G + X (Exp – Imp)]
Government Revenue & Export
(Carbon Base Industry)
Mining & Coal Commodities
Mining Production
Technology & Environment (Narrow-
View)
As requirements for Mine Operation.
REVERSE THINKING
Environment (Broad-View)
GDP (economy)
Lower global carbon emission,
[C + I + G + X (Exp – Imp)]
sustainable energy, etc.
Industry + C + Export
(Green Industry & High Tech)
Coal Beneficiation
RE & IT Technologies (Liquefaction, Gasification,
etc.)
Technology & RE Components
Coal Commodity
(Mineral Commodities as Raw
(as Raw Material)
Material)
Mining Production
Mineral Commodities
Strategic Issues & Policy
❑Future Technology (Case Study)
❑Indonesian Strategy in
Commodities

25
 General Environment analysis (PESTEL)
Segments Details
Politic and • Trump’s “America First” unilateralism (tindakan sepihak).
Legal • China’s CP “One-Leader” centralization toward the Third Revolution.
• Russia’s “One-Leader” centralization to accelerate modernization.
• Arms race at all spatial dimension (land, sea/deepsea, airspace/outerspace, and
cyberspace).
• Crisis of multilateralism and diplomacy.
• 34 Bilateral Investment Treaty Partners
• 24 Investment Related Instrument of Indonesia including multilateral,
plurilateral/regional, non-governmental and national level.

Economic • Rising threats of trade war.

• Battles to dominate resources: energy, food, minerals.
• Race to move out from “Dollar Trap” among major currencies.
• Race to develop major global transportation networks to control markets.

Sociocultural • Global Milenial Population (Behavior, Open Information, etc.)

• HDI of Indonesia in 2014 is 0.684 (ranked 110 out of 188 countries)

Technological • Renewable Energy, Machine Learning, Telco & Super Computer, Transportation,
etc.

Environment • Indonesia signed the UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol 1997 (ratification process in July
2004) & Paris Agreement 2015 (ratification UU No 16/2016). 26
 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dunia
Ekonomi global masih dipenuhi ketidakpastian. Pertumbuhan
ekonomi dunia diproyeksikan menurun menjadi 3,6 persen pada Outlook Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara
tahun 2020. Penurunan terjadi baik di negara maju maupun Maju
negara berkembang.
(Persen)
2,75

2,25 1,7
Outlook Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dunia
(Persen) 1,75 1,7
4 1,7
1,25 Apr Oct Jan 19
3,8 3,8 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
3,7
3,6
3,6 Outlook Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara
3,4 Berkembang
(Persen)5,1
3,2 4,9
5,3
3 5,0
4,8
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4,5 4,9
4,3
Apr Oct Jan 19 Apr Oct Jan 19
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: WEO IMF 2018, Jan 2019

 Lingkungan Eksternal Lima Tahun ke Depan
Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan volume perdagangan dunia Perlambatan pertumbuhan negara mitra dagang utama
cenderung melambat
(persen)
3,8 6,0
5,0
2019 2019 2023 2019
3,6
2023 2023
4,0
2,5 6,2 5,6 7,4 7,7
3,4 3,0 1,4
(persen) 2,0
3,2
1,0
2019 2019 2023 2019
3,0 0,0 2023 2023
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2,4 2,2 0,9 0,5 2,0 1,4
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Volume Perdagangan - RHS

Harga komoditas internasional cenderung menurun Tekanan normalisasi kebijakan moneter beralih
dari AS ke kawasan Eropa
140
3,5
130
3,0
120 2,5
110 2,0
100 1,5
(indeks 2016=100)
90 1,0
0,5
80 (persen)
0,0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Indeks Harga Komoditas (Termasuk BBM)
Indeks Harga Komoditas (Non BBM) Suku Bunga AS Suku Bunga Eropa 28
Source: Bappenas 2019
 Perkembangan Harga Batubara dan Gas Alam ($/mt)
per Oktober 2019
120,00 4,50

4,00
100,00
3,50

80,00 3,00

2,50
60,00
2,00

40,00 1,50

1,00
20,00
0,50

0,00 0,00
Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19
Coal, Australian ($/mt) 114,16 108,73 100,73 101,37 98,56 95,42 93,12 86,77 82,32 72,49 72,08 65,55 65,75
Natural gas, US ($/mmbtu) 3,00 3,29 4,14 3,95 3,08 2,72 2,94 2,65 2,63 2,40 2,36 2,22 2,58

Sumber: Pink Sheet, Commodity Price, World Bank

Coal, Australian ($/mt) Natural gas, US ($/mmbtu)

▪ Batu bara: Pergerakan harga batu bara hingga September 2019 terpantau terus melemah hingga mencapai harga di kisaran 65 $/mt. Hal
ini disebabkan oleh semakin memburuknya perang dagang AS – China dan cuaca panas yang memicu sedikitnya pembakaran batubara.
▪ Gas alam: Harga gas alam terpantau melemah karena dipicu dua faktor. Pertama, kondisi cuaca yang tidak mendukung permintaan gas
alam oleh sektor industri rumah tangga. Faktor kedua, penarikan persediaan gas alam yang lebih rendah.

Source: Bappenas 2019

 Perkembangan Harga Tembaga, Nikel,Timah, Seng dan Bijih Besi
per Oktober 2019
25000,00 140,00

120,00
20000,00

100,00

15000,00
80,00

60,00
10000,00

40,00

5000,00
20,00

0,00 0,00
Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19

Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19
Copper ($/mt) 6050,76 6219,59 6195,92 6075,32 5939,10 6300,49 6439,46 6438,36 6017,90 5882,23 5941,20 5709,44 5759,25
Lead ($/mt) 2022,91 1987,55 1937,11 1972,32 1997,14 2062,79 2046,46 1938,99 1815,19 1899,70 1975,64 2044,55 2071,85
Tin ($/mt) 18967,13 19121,48 19064,86 19259,58 20457,75 21263,95 21393,40 20604,30 19523,90 19193,20 17977,85 16608,99 16830,62
Nickel ($/mt) 12510,35 12314,91 11239,72 10835,08 11523,09 12685,23 13026,27 12772,79 12016,31 11943,94 13546,30 15748,64 17656,88
Iron ore ($/dmtu) 68,44 73,41 73,26 69,16 76,16 88,22 86,47 93,70 100,15 108,94 120,24 93,07 93,08

Sumber: Pink Sheet, Commodity Price, World Bank

Harga komoditas logam industri pada September 2018 – September 2019 terpantau bergerak variatif. Harga tembaga dan timah teramati
mengalami pelemahan pada tahun 2019. Sedangkan untuk timbal terpantau stabil. Bijih besi terpantau mengalami peningkatan hingga Juli
2019 namun mengalami penurunan setelahnya. Adapun untuk nikel, secara umum terpantau terus menguat hingga September 2019.
Source: Bappenas 2019
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
 32
❑ MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP
Correlations:
The Middle-Income Trap
By Evan Applegate June 13, 2013
Speaking on June 6 in Chengdu, China, Executive Vice Premier Zhang
Gaoli said his country “has to stand up to the test of striding over the
‘middle-income trap.’ ” Zhang was referring to a well-known
phenomenon: Many nations can move from low-income to middle-
income status, but as labor costs rise only countries that boost
productivity, improve education, and master innovation &
Strategy fully develop.

www.businessweek.com
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD. Konsinyering BS RPJMN 2020-2024 Minerba
 Indonesia’s Potential: Demographic Bonus
• Indonesia has the fourth ranking population in the world, with 237.6 million people (2010), and the working age
population is close to 70% of the total population. Population growth rose to 1.49% in 2010.
• Indonesia’s window of “demographic bonus” (only if it accompanied by better quality education to produce skilled
workers and more job creation) will close in the next decade, as the dependecy ratio (i.e. ratio of young and elderly to
working age) will start to rise after 2030.
INDONESIA: Age Structure of Population and Dependency Ratio (%), 1950-2050

Source: Government of Indonesia (2011), “Master Plan: Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025
 Renewable Energy as One of
Drivers of Base Metal Demand
Raw Material for
Green Technology
 The Electric Vehicle Initiative is a multi
government policy forum targeting

125 million EV
total on the Road
30%
market share for electric vehicle sales by
2030

Electric Vehicle
(Case Study of Green Technology)
 Commodities Stock
2013 to 2018

Contributed by Indonesia Export

Change of Commodities Price
2015 to 2018
 Analisis Ketahanan Cadangan : Mineral

Source: ESDM 2018

Konsinyering BS RPJMN 2020-2024 Minerba 38
 Analisis Ketahanan Cadangan : Batubara
Indonesia Coal Reserves (ESDM, 2017) Skenario Produksi batubara 400 juta ton, ekspor menyesuaikan kebutuhan domestik
Reserves (billion tonne)
Rank CV (kcal/kg, adb)
Probable Proven Total
Low Rank < 5100 3,758 3,758 7,515
Medium Rank 5100-6100 6,871 10,307 17,178
High Rank 6100-7100 0,268 1,074 1,342
Very High Rank > 7100 0,443 0,362 0,805
Total 12,544 14,296 26,840

World Coal Reserves

Indonesia
3% USA
S. Africa 29%
4%
India
7% Asumsi perhitungan analisis ketahanan cadangan batubara jika tanpa penemuan baru:
• Porsi Batubara dalam bauran pembangkit listrik : 50%
Russia • Capacity Factor PLTU batubara : 70%
Australia China 19% • Kebutuhan listrik Indonesia pada 2018 : 239 TWh dan pada 2027: 443 TWh (RUPTL 2018-2027)
9% 14% • Laju pertumbuhan demand : 6,8% (RUPTL 2018-2027)
• Konsumsi batubara selain PLTU: 11% dari total konsumsi PLTU (acuan data konsumsi historis)
Diolah dari : BP Statistical Review, 2010
Konsinyering BS RPJMN 2020-2024 Minerba 39
 Why should It be Indonesia?
Indonesia World
Indonesia Reserve % of Total Est. Run Out
Material Production Demand Hypothetic Strategy
(tonne) World (years)
(tonne) USGS increase
Start Exploitation and More Added
Cobalt 484,461 No Data No Data No Data 1,928%
Value

Nickel 48,564,691 6% 400,000 47 105% ?

Copper 27,914,980 4% 650,000 29 22% ?

Manganese 43,134,791 No Data 54,000 21 14% ?
Aluminum 582,614,128 4% 1,000,000 535 13% ?

Electric Vehicle
(Indonesian Strategy in Commodities)
Framework
Thinking
 Conclusion and Recommendation
Level of Required SDM (Competency/Curriculum)
❑ Technology of Mining & Processing-Refining
❑ Social, Environment, Policy/Reg, Digital Awareness
❑ Strategic Management & Leadership
❑ Innovation & Entrepreneurship
❑ Financial Engineering, & Business Portfolio
❑ Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics Awareness and
Strategy

National Economic Growth National Security & Defence

❑ Certain Economic Policy ❑ Geo Politic & Economic Strategy
❑ Robust Law and Regulation ❑ Supply Chain Control
❑ Human Productivity ❑ Logistic Development & Control
❑ Research & Technology ❑ Defense Industry
❑ Value Addition, etc ❑ etc

Indonesia Mineral Resources,

Demography, Geography & Nationalism
“Negara kita belum sejajar dengan negara-negara maju di dunia, bangsa kita belum menjadi bangsa yang menjadi
teladan bagi bangsa-bangsa di dunia, masyarakat kita belum menjadi masyarakat yang madani layaknya
masyarakat yang hidup di negara-negara maju di dunia. Terobosan-terobosan, ‘out of the box thinking’ yang
dilandasi keberanian, persatuan, dan kerja keras dengan suatu perhitungan adalah modal bangsa ini untuk
bangkit, maju memimpin dunia”