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Initiating Coverage

BUY Going Tough


Ceat is expanding capacity by setting up a green-field plant for high-Margin Truck and Bus
Price Rs103
(T&B) Radial tyres. The company is also improving its product mix by enhancing capacity of
Target Price Rs147 high-Margin Specialty tyres. It is also increasing focusing on Exports. Further, we expect
Investment Period 12 Months value unlocking to happen as the company plans to sell its surplus land at Bhandup, Mumbai
over the next two years. Over FY2007-10E, we expect Ceat's Top-line to grow at a CAGR of
Stock Info 8.3%, and with Margins expected to sustain at 9MFY2008 levels (8.5%), we expect the
company's Bottomline to grow at CAGR of 34% in the mentioned period. Also, de-merger of
Sector Tyre
its investments has reduced Ceat's capital by 25% and is expected to improve Return Ratios.
Market Cap (Rs cr) 352 At current levels, the stock is trading at attractive valuations at 3.8x FY2009E EPS of Rs27.4
and 3.5x FY2010E EPS of Rs29.4 and FY2010E EV/Sales of 0.3x and EV/EBITDA of 3.2x.
Beta 0.9
We Initiate Coverage on the stock, with a Buy Recommendation and Target Price of
52 Week High / Low 244/92 Rs147, translating into an upside of 43% from current levels.

Avg Daily Volume 190618 „ Capacity expansions and Re-jig of Product mix to sustain Margins: Ceat is
aggressively expanding capacity, and re-jigging its product mix (focus on high-Margin
Face Value (Rs) 10
products) to sustain Margins. In line with this, the company has expanded capacity (capex of
Rs50cr) of its Bhandup and Nasik plants by 30 tonnes per day(tpd) for the manufacture of
BSE Sensex 15,808
T&B bias tyres. Ceat also plans to set up a 100tpd green-field T&B Radial facility at an
Nifty 4,778 investment of Rs500cr. It proposes to focus on the high-Margin passenger car radial (PCR)
and Specialty tyre segments by increasing capacity from the current 40-50tpd to 100tpd
going ahead. These initiatives will help the company sustain overall Margins and Profitability.
BSE Code 500878
„ Increasing focus on Exports: Ceat has a global footprint and exports to over 110
NSE Code CEATLTD
countries. Going ahead, it proposes to enhance focus on exports. Over the next two years,
Reuters Code CEAT.BO we estimate exports' contribution to gross sales to increase from the current 18% to 22%.

Bloomberg Code CEAT IN „ De-merged investments to improve Return Ratios: Ceat's investments in the RPG
group companies of Rs120cr, which were not yielding significant returns, have now been
de-merged. As a result, Ceat's capital has reduced by 25% and its RoCE is set to improve
Shareholding Pattern (%)
from 11.9% in FY2007 to 18.7% in FY2010E, and will aid a re-rating of the stock.
Promoters 43.2

MF / Banks / Indian FIs 28.5 Key Financials


Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008E FY2009E FY2010E
FII / NRIs / OCBs 11.6
Net Sales 2,133 2,290 2,473 2,721
Indian Public / Others 16.7 % chg 22.3 7.4 8.0 10.0
Net Profit 39.3 192.5 93.9 100.6
% chg - 390.4 (51.2) 7.2
Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr
OPM (%) 6.5 8.3 8.5 8.5
Sensex (%) (13) 20 147
EPS (Rs) 8.6 56.2 27.4 29.4
Ceat (%) (43) (7) 15 P/E (x) 12.0 1.8 3.8 3.5
P/BV (x) 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6
Adj. RoE (%) 10.4 21.1 18.8 17.2
Girish Solanki
RoCE (%) 11.9 17.8 18.4 18.7
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 319 EV/Sales (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
E-mail: girish.solanki@angeltrade.com EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 3.2 3.1 3.2
Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: FY2008E, Adj PAT is Rs88.5cr and RoE has been
adjusted for sale of land.

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Business Overview

In FY2007, the company Ceat, a part of the RPG Group, is one of India's leading tyre manufacturers in the country. In
manufactured 7.5mn tyres and FY2007, the company manufactured 7.5mn tyres and registered an annual turnover of Rs2,133cr.
registered an annual turnover Ceat has strong brand equity and is well-entrenched in both the domestic and international
of Rs2,133cr markets. The company has a domestic presence with 36 regional offices, more than 3,500
dealers, and over 100 Clearing & Forwarding agents and It is the largest tyre exporter in India
exporting to over 110 countries worldwide. Ceat also has long-standing business tie-ups with the
major OEMs like Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, M&M, L&T, Eicher, Swaraj Mazda, caterpillar, Bajaj
Auto, Piaggio, Hero Honda, and TVS Motors. .

Ceat manufactures a wide range of tyres, which cater to almost all users including heavy-duty
trucks and buses, light commercial vehicles, earthmovers, forklifts, tractors, trailers, cars,
motorcycles and scooters, specialty tyres, radials and three wheelers. It also markets tubes and
flaps, which are outsourced from 13 partners. The company has also entered into an
agreement with Pirelli of Italy for outsourcing Radial tyres, marketed under the brand name, CEAT
Spider Radials. It has two manufacturing units located at Mumbai and Nasik.

Exhibit 1: Segment-wise revenue (FY2007)

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Industry Overview

The Indian Tyre industry, The Indian Tyre industry, estimated at around Rs19,000cr, accounts for around 4% of the global
estimated at around Tyre market. Over FY2002-07, the industry clocked a CAGR of 10.6%. However, over the next five
Rs19,000cr, accounts for years, industry is estimated to witness a marginal slow down and register CAGR of 8-9%. This blip
around 4% of the global Tyre in growth would be on account of the likely slow down in the OEM off-take across categories.
market
Ceat is the fourth largest Tyre manufacturer in the country with a marketshare of 12% trailing MRF
(21.9%), Apollo Tyres (21.8%) and J K Industries (17.6%).

Exhibit 2: Marketshare across companies (FY2007)


Others
9.5%
Falcon
2.1% MRF
TVS shrichakra 21.9%
3.4%

Birla tyres
5.5%

Goodyear India
6.3%

Ceat Apollo Tyres


11.9% 21.8%

JK Inds
17.6%

Source: Crisinfac, Angel Research, Note: Marketshare is based on production minus exports

The Top-seven players Exhibit 3: Tyre Industry Overview (FY2007)


account for over 85% of the
Turnover (Rs cr) 19,000
industry marketshare and are
Export (Rs cr) 2,000
operating at above 90%
Installed capacity (million nos) 90.2
utilisation level
Production (million nos) 74.2
Production ('000 tonnes) 1,102
Historical CAGR (FY2003-07, %)
Production of MHCV tyres (in nos) 5.9
Value of Exports 12.9
Source: Crisi Infac, Angel Research

The Indian Tyre industry has an aggregate installed capacity of 90.2mn tyres. The Top-seven
players account for over 85% of the marketshare. As the Top-seven tyre players are
operating at above 90% utilisation level, it has allowed the players to hike the tyre prices last year,
leading stability to Margins. However, due to the capacity constraints, the Top-four players have
lined up expansion plans to be completed over the next few years. According to industry, the
capex requirement until FY2012 would be around Rs5,000cr. The vehicle population is expected
to rise and keep the Replacement demand buoyant. In FY2007, the Replacement segment
contributed 57% to the overall industry Sales, OEMs 29% and Exports 14%.

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In FY2007, the Replacement Exhibit 4: Segment-wise Sales break up (FY2007)


segment contributed 57% to
the overall industry Sales,
OEMs 29% and Exports 14%

Source: Crisinfac, Angel Research

Growth drivers

Improving Road Infrastructure and higher Vehicle population to boost Tyre offtake

Expected growth in the Investment in Road infrastructure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% over the next three
Automobile industry will years, which is expected to result in cargo transport shifting from railways to roads. As a result,
translate into sustainable commercial vehicles (CV) sales would also improve. Going ahead, India is expected to emerge as
growth of its ancillary an Automobile outsourcing and manufacturing hub. Expected growth in the Automobile industry
segment, the Tyre industry, will translate into sustainable growth of its ancillary segment, the Tyre industry, both in OEM
both in OEM segment and segment and Replacement market over the next 5-10 years. The Replacement market for tyres,
Replacement market over the which is around 57% of the overall domestic tyre offtake, is expected to grow at a much faster
next 5-10 years pace due to the sharp increase in vehicle population. We see this market as the key growth driver
for the tyre manufacturers.

Exhibit 5: Tyre Industry - Gearing up for overall Healthy growth

Robust
Economic Freight movement & increased passenger traffic
performance

Focus on
infrastructure Demand creation both at time of construction & Subsequently
development

Boom
in Auto OEM demand leads to replacement demand
Industry
Source: Angel Research

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The PV segment is expected Over the last five years, the Indian passenger vehicles (PV) segment grew by 17.8%, while
to grow at 11%, while the CV commercial vehicles (CV) demand grew 21.9%. The PV segment is expected to grow at 11%,
segment is expected to grow while the CV segment is expected to grow by 8%, albeit on a higher base, over FY2007-10.
by 8% albeit on a higher base
Exhibit 6: Auto sales (in '000)
Y/E March FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 CAGR (%)
Commercial Vehicles 203 277 349 391 518 546 21.9
LCV 82 108 137 170 223 253 25.4
MHCV 122 169 213 221 295 293 19.2
Passenger Vehicles 780 1031 1,228 1,319 1,578 1,766 17.8
Cars 612 821 981 1,052 1,269 1,414 18.2
UV 115 149 181 200 224 250 16.8
MPV 53 61 66 67 84 120 14.1
Two Wheelers 4,992 5,628 6,577 7,566 8,467 8,051 10.0
Motorcycles 3,771 4,357 5,242 6,197 7,098 6,544 11.7
Mopeds 362 331 352 376 393 432 3.6
Scooter 859 940 983 993 976 1,075 4.6
Total 5,975 6,936 8,154 9,275 10,562 10,363 11.6
YoY Growth (%) 16.1 17.5 13.8 13.9 (1.9)
Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), Angel Research

Buoyant OEM segment to boost Replacement Tyre segment

We expect the steady The Automobile sector is expected to continue on growth path over the medium term fuelled by
demand in OEMs to increasing domestic demand and growing exports. Penetration of cars in India is among the
create a huge base of lowest in the world, which leaves significant room for growth. Further, given the government's
vehicles, which will thrust on infrastructure spending, the CV segment would benefit from the same in turn aiding
consistently drive growth of the Tyre industry. Average disposable income levels have also been rising and so has
Replacement demand - a the availability of low-cost financing. All these factors are expected to keep domestic vehicle
major component of tyre demand robust, and in turn impact the OEM tyre offtake favourably.
offtake
While the domestic Automobile industry grew at a CAGR of around 11.6% during FY2003-08, it is
expected to grow by more than 10% (on an expanded base) over the next ten years. Also, in view
of the growth rate and interest shown by the global players, the government has indicated that
Auto hubs need to be set up in various parts of the country. Thus, India is set to become a hub for
the US $1trillion global Auto-components industry.

We expect the steady demand in OEMs to create a huge base of vehicles which will
consistently drive Replacement demand - a major component of tyre offtake.

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Investment Argument
Strong Tyre industry outlook

Over the last few years, with We expect tyre demand in the Replacement segment to grow at a CAGR of 8-9% over FY2007-
the improvement in capacity 10E, due to strong vehicle sales over the last few years especially in the CV and PV segments.
utilisation, the tyre companies Demand from OEMs is also expected to be buoyant as vehicle demand growth stabilises on a
have displayed rational pricing high base. Further, there exists a huge opportunity in the global bias and off-the-road (OTR) tyres
ability, which has provided the segment. These tyres do not attract much demand from the global majors but fetch high margins.
much needed stability to the Globally there is almost full radialisation of vehicle tyres due to which these countries import bias
industry tyres from India. Also, due to different types of tyres in the OTR segment and a comparatively
smaller international market for it, manufacturing these tyres locally renders it unviable. Against
this backdrop, we expect Ceat to meet the requirements of the export markets for bias and
OTR tyres as the company has already expanded its bias tyre capacity and is also expanding its
OTR capacity.

Exhibit 7: Demand Drivers in place

? CV demand to grow by 8% CAGR over FY07-10E


? PV demand to grow by 11% CAGR over FY07-10E
? Tractor demand to grow by 7% CAGR over FY07-10E
? 2W demand to grow by 9% CAGR over FY07-10E

OEM

? Ability to cater to ? Rising truck and car population


international demand ? Shrinking replacement cycle in PV
Demand
for tyres in OTR segment Exports Replacement segment
Drivers
as well as bias tyres in ? Strong freight demand resulting in
T&B segment increase in distance traveled per truck

Source: Angel Research

Two years back, the tyre companies were in the red as they were unable to aggressively price
their products owing to low levels of capacity utilisation in the industry. However, over the last few
years, with the improvement in capacity utilisation, the tyre companies have displayed rational
pricing ability which has provided the much needed stability to the industry. Going ahead, we
expect this trend to continue and benefit the tyre companies.

Capacity expansions and Re-jig of Product mix to stabilise Margins

Expansion of Existing facilities

Ceat has increased capacity of Ceat has ramped up capacity of its Bhandup and Nasik plants by 30tpd for T&B bias tyres at a
its Bhandup and Nasik plants capex of Rs50cr. This has taken its overall capacity from 400tpd to 430tpd. Both these plants are
by 30tpd to 430tpd for T&B bias running at optimum utilisation levels. Ceat also has an outsourcing production arrangement with
tyres at a capex of Rs50cr 13 outsourcing partners through which it gets additional 100-110tpd outsourced production.

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Exhibit 8: Capacity Expansion


Plant Existing capacity (tpd) Expansion (tpd)
Nasik 250 25
Bhandup, Mumbai 150 5
Source: Company, Angel Research

Over 69% of the company's revenue is generated from the T&B segments as there is huge
demand from the Replacement market and from the OEMs. Ceat also has plans to expand
production capacity of car radials from 60,000 units to 1,00,000 units over the next 12 months.

Due to capacity constraints, Ceat outsources its production from its 13 partners locally and from
low-cost countries like China and Vietnam. In FY2007, the outsourcing arrangement contributed
20% of its revenue. With increased demand and capacity expansion taking time to come up, Ceat
is increasing its outsourcing of tyres from its partners thereby ensuring good marketshare, volume
growth and profitability. Currently, it outsources close to 100/tpd but going ahead it plans to
increase this to 300/tpd.

Higher contribution from Specialty Tyre segment

Going ahead, Ceat expects to Going forward, Ceat plans to focus on the high-margin Passenger car radial (PCR) and Specialty
double output of the tyres segment by expanding capacity from the current 40-50tpd to around 100tpd. We expect
high-Margin Specialty tyres, Ceat to clock overall volume growth of 5% and 6% in FY2009E and FY2010E, respectively. Ceat
which would in turn sustain has been primarily exporting Specialty tyres since the last two years and the share of Specialty
Margins and Profitability tyres in the company's overall revenues has been rising. During FY2004-07, the company's
exports (includes Specialty tyres) registered a CAGR growth of 29% and the contribution to gross
Sales moved up from 12.5% in FY2004 to 18% in FY2007. Going ahead, Ceat expects to double
output of the high-Margin Specialty tyres, which would in turn sustain Margins and Profitability.

Specialty tyre exports is a lucrative opportunity for the Indian players as they enjoy an edge over
their global peers on account of substantial cost advantage. Also, competition from global players
is low in this space as they do not see this business generating sufficient volumes and are hence
not actively involved in it. Nonetheless, Margins in this segment are substantially higher compared
to the cross-ply and radial tyre businesses.

Green-field capacity for T&B Radial tyres

Increasing distribution of Radial tyres offer better fuel efficiency and work out to be more cost-effective over the life of a tyre.
imported radial tyres, new In India, the car segment has already achieved around 95% radialisation. As of FY2007, only 3%
domestic capacities and OEM radialisation has been achieved in the T&B segment and 12% in the LCV segment. The poor
fitment of radial tyres to be the roads in India render radial tyres unviable for trucks. However, due to ban on overloading of trucks
key enablers and government emphasis on improving the country's road infrastructure, we expect an
accelerated radialisation trend in the T&B space in the coming years. We expect radialisation in
the CV segment to pick up in the near future. Radialisation of MHCV tyres is expected to increase
to 8-10% by FY2012 from the current 3%. We expect increasing distribution of imported radial
tyres, new domestic capacities and OEM fitment of radial tyres to be the key enablers.

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Ceat proposes to invest Exhibit 9: Radialisation in India (%)


Rs500cr to set up a 100tpd Segment 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
greenfield T&B Radial tyre Passenger Cars 60 70 75 85 90 90 95
facility LCV 8 10 10 11 11 11 12
T&B 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
Source: Cris Infac, Angel Research

To keep pace with the expected increase in demand for radial tyres, most tyre majors including
Ceat have chalked out plans to enter the growing Radial tyre market in India, which is estimated
to be about 8% of the total domestic tyre market of Rs19,000cr. Ceat's proposed 100tpd greenfield
T&B Radial tyre facility, would be further used to manufacture cars, tractors and specialty tyres,
and would be set up at an investment of around Rs500cr. We have not factored the same in our
estimates as the project is still at the conceptualisation stage and benefits from the same would
only accrue post FY2010E. The company is currently scouting for land across India. Ceat plans to
partly fund this project from the sale of its 31acres land bank at Bhandup, Mumbai, where the
companies existing unit is located.

Ceat is setting up a plant to keep pace with the ever-increasing demand from the OEMs as its
existing facilities (Bhandup and Nasik) are operating at optimum utilisation levels.

According to Rs18.6cr/acre The Bhandup facility will be relocated either to Patalganga or Ambernath near Mumbai. The
price realised, the land company has already sold seven acres of vacant land in Bhandup for Rs130cr. Of this, Rs120cr
valuation for 24 acres works has already been received as advance and the balance would be paid within the next two months
out to Rs445cr when the deal will be completed.Over the next 2-3 years when the new facilities near completion,
it plans to sell off the remaining 24acres also and shift to the new plant. According to
Rs18.6cr/acre price realised, the land valuation for 24 acres works out to Rs445cr.

Increasing focus on Exports

Ceat has a global footprint and currently exports to over 110 countries. Going ahead, it intends to
increase its focus on exports riding high on a stable and extensive network in South America,
North America and Europe. Ceat's products have found high acceptance with several OEMs in
Europe amidst stiff competition from other global majors.

Over the years, the company's Export basket has improved in terms of price realisations and
profitability. For 9MFY2008, Exports contribution increased to 20.2% of overall revenues from
18.9% in 9MFY2007. The company registered a healthy yoy growth of 12% in Export sales in
9MFY2008. Further, with the domestic automobile industry grappling with higher interest rate
scenario and high base effect of last year, this negatively impacted growth in CV, and the share of
OEM sales in Ceat's revenues declined in 9MFY2008. This led to higher contribution of
Replacement Market and Export sales.

Ceat exports when the differential in realisation between the international and domestic market is
high which positively impacts Margins.

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Over the next two years, we Exhibit 10: Higher Export contribution
estimate Exports' contribution
to gross revenues to increase
from the current 18% to 22%

Source: Company, Angel Research

Over the next two years, we estimate Exports' contribution to gross revenues to increase from the
current 18% to 22%. In FY2007, Ceat recorded export revenues of Rs429cr (Rs393cr in FY2006),
a yoy growth of 9.2%.

Exhibit 11: Growth in Export contribution (Rs cr)

Source: Company; Angel Research

De-merged Investments to improve Return Ratios

Owing to the De-merger of Ceat, with the intention to re-align its business operations, has transferred its investments into a
Investments, Ceat’s RoCE is separate company called CHI Investment. Going ahead, Ceat will focus on its core business of
set to improve from 11.9% in manufacture and sale of tyres. The transfer of investments to a different company has been done
FY2007 to 18.7% in FY2010E, in the larger interest of both companies, their shareholders, creditors and employees and the
and will also aid a re-rating of general public. Also, the Rs120cr investments, which were mostly in the RPG group companies,
the stock were not yielding returns. The de-merger has reduced Ceat's capital by 25% and thereby
improved Return Ratios. The restructuring will also result in enhancement of shareholders' value.
The companys RoCE is set to improve from 11.9% in FY2007 to 18.7% in FY2010E, and will also
aid a re-rating of the stock.

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Exhibit 12: De-merger scheme

Ceat Ltd
Equity:Rs45.7

Ceat Ltd (Core) CHI Investments


Equity:Rs34.3cr Equity:Rs11.4cr

Source: Company; Angel Research

Financial Outlook

During FY2007-10E, we expect During FY2007-10E, we expect Ceat to report a CAGR of 8.3% in revenues, which would primarily
Ceat to report a CAGR of 8.3% come from 4.4% volume growth and 9.3% growth in realisations. In the last three years, growth
in revenues, which would has been driven largely on the back of higher realisations (partly on account of raw material cost
primarily come from 4.4% push) and increase in production outsourcing. Further, we expect volume growth in the T&B
volume growth and 9.3% segment to sustain at current levels on the back of increase in Replacements demand.
growth in realisations
Exhibit 13: Revenue Profile
FY2007 FY2008E FY2009E FY2010E CAGR (%)
Automobile Tyres 2,156.9 2,310.4 2,498.7 2,754.6 8.5
Automotive Tubes 200.0 210.0 222.8 241.0 6.4
Automotive Flaps 33.6 38.4 41.5 44.9 10.2
Total Sales 2,390.4 2,558.9 2,763.1 3,040.5 8.3
Yoy Growth (%)
Automobile Tyres 23.3 7.1 8.1 10.2
Automotive Tubes 14.5 5.0 6.1 8.2
Automotive Flaps 19.0 14.4 8.2 8.2
Total Sales 22.5 7.0 8.0 10.0
(% of Total)
Automobile Tyres 90.2 90.3 90.4 90.6
Automotive Tubes 8.4 8.2 8.1 7.9
Automotive Flaps 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
Source: Company, Angel Research

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Margins to stabilise following focus on Exports and OTR segment

We believe Margins peaked out Currently, Exports and OTR tyres fetch superior margins compared to the OEM segment. With
in 1HFY2008 when the contribution from Export and OTR tyre increasing, going ahead we expect Margins to stabilise in
company registered 9% plus FY2009E and FY2010E at 8.5% levels.
OPMs. Going ahead, we
expect Margins to stabilise at Operating Margins have a direct correlation with raw material costs, which constitute 75% of
8.5% levels operating cost. During 2006-07, Ceat's raw material cost spiked as rubber prices increased sharply.
The company's, average blended rubber price in FY2007 shot up by 24.1% yoy, vis-a-vis a rise of
24% in the previous two years. Ceat has been continuously taking a hit on Margins as it did not
pass on the increase in cost price to consumers. But, industry conditions were also not conducive
to pass on the high costs to consumers as it was facing low capacity utilisation levels.
Nonetheless, since FY2006, Ceat effected price hikes post which its Margins have improved
substantially from abysmally low levels of 3.1% in FY2005 to 6.5% in FY2007 and further to 8.5%
in 9MFY2008. We believe Margins peaked out in 1HFY2008 when the company registered 9%
plus OPMs. Going ahead, we expect Margins to stabilise at 8.5% levels.

Inverse Correlation- OPM v/s Raw material cost

Apart from natural rubber, most of the key raw materials are petro-based. Thus, price trends and
demand-supply dynamics relating to natural rubber and crude oil have a significant bearing on the
company's Margins.

Exhibit 14: Raw materials component (FY2007)

Source: Company, Angel Research

There is a strong and inverse relationship between EBITDA Margins of any tyre company with the
raw material prices, specifically rubber. Rubber accounts for around 50% of raw material costs.

We believe that margins have peaked out at current levels. However, we expect strong demand
from the Replacement and OEM segments to continue, which we believe will not result in further

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reduction in realisations. In the last three months, the natural rubber prices have been moving up
to Rs104/kg. We have assumed blended rubber prices of Rs96/kg and Rs102/kg for FY2009E
and FY2010E, respectively. Going ahead we expect the margin to stabilise as, the company will
pass on the rise in raw material cost to the consumers.

Exhibit 15: OPM v/s Raw material cost

Source: Company, Angel Research

PAT to post strong growth

We expect Ceat to post a Higher realisations and softening natural rubber prices in 1HFY2008 resulted in an improvement
CAGR of 34% in Earnings over in Margins. Further, Ceat is the only tyre company paying Octroi, which if scrapped, will have a
FY2007-10E to Rs100.6cr positive impact on its Margins. However, due to lack of clarity on this issue we have not factored
the same in our estimates. We expect PAT Margins to improve from 2% in FY2007 to 3.7% in
FY2010E. We expect Ceat to post a CAGR of 34% in Earnings over FY2007-10E to Rs100.6cr. In
line with Profitability, Return Ratios are expected to improve going forward.

Exhibit 16: Improving Return Ratios and stable Margins

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Concerns
Increase in Raw material prices: The Tyre sector is currently facing high cost push pressures,
with the prices of rubber and carbon black ruling high. Further, considering the overall Auto de-
mand, it might not be easy to pass on the same entirely to customers. Any upward movement in
the prices of these commodities could erode Margins particularly if Ceat is not able to pass on the
same as it had happened two years ago. However, chances of such a thing happening this time
looks low as the Tyre industry is running at above 90% capacity utilisation.

During 9MFY2008, Ceat benefited from the low raw material costs and strong realisation growth
leading to an almost 270bp expansion in Margins. Natural rubber accounted for around 50% of
total expenses for Ceat. During 1HFY2008, the Rubber prices were on a downturn ruling at around
80-85/kg. However, prices have again started picking up and in 3QFY2008 the prices were
ruling at above Rs100/kg.

We have assumed 5.5% rise in rubber prices in FY2009E from Rs91/kg as a base case, and a
further 6.8% in FY2010E. Any additional rise in Rubber prices could impact our forecast. However,
in the immediate past Ceat has been able to pass on the rise in raw material prices and have
maintained their Margins. Hence, in our projections too we have factored in certain price hikes.

Exhibit 17: Sensitivity Analysis - Impact of Rubber prices on FY2010E PAT


FY2009 % Hike
4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
4.8% 117.8 114.9 112.1 109.2 106.4
5.8% 112.1 109.2 106.3 103.4 100.6
FY2010 % Hike 6.8% 106.4 103.5 100.6 97.7 94.8
7.8% 100.7 97.8 94.8 91.9 89.0
8.8% 95.0 92.1 89.1 86.1 83.2
Source: Company, Angel Research

Auto Sector slowdown: We believe that with inflation hovering well above the government's
comfort level of 5%, chances of interest rate cuts in the near future seems unlikely. This might put
some pressure on the demand in the Auto sector as it is an interest rate sensitive sector. However,
the Replacement market for tyres, which is around 57% of the overall domestic tyre offtake, is
expected to grow at a much faster pace due to the sharp increase in vehicle population. We see
this market as the key growth driver for the tyre manufacturers.

Competition to wrest away marketshare: Competition in the Tyre industry is intense as


companies are competing on product design, performance, price, reputation, warranty terms,
customer service and convenience. In India, Ceat faces competition from six key players
including MRF, Apollo, Goodyear, JK, Birla Tyres and Bridgestone. Other global tyre
manufactures such as Michelin have also entered the Indian tyre market. Moreover, China
remains a key threat particularly in the Replacement market due to its cost competitiveness.
However, we believe that the credit period and after-sale service are important aspects on which
the Chinese cannot compete with the domestic players.

January
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Outlook and Valuation

Ceat along with other tyre manufacturers has hiked its tyre prices over the last year, which is
indicative of a strong reversal in the pricing trend. Hence, we expect improvement in the
profitability of tyre companies to sustain. During the last three months, the stock of Ceat has
witnessed a steep decline on the bourses vis-à-vis its peers as well as the Sensex. While the
broader indices declined by 20%, Ceat has fallen by around 50%. However, we believe post this
sharp decline the stock is trading at attractive valuations. At the CMP of Rs103, the stock is
trading at 3.5x FY2010E Earnings and FY2010E EV/Sales of 0.3x, which compares favourably
versus its peers.

Moreover, considering the price Ceat was able to fetch for its seven acre land (Rs18.6cr/acre to
Rs130cr), it will be able to get Rs445cr for the remainng 24 acre land, which we believe will give
additional cushion to the stock. We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy
recommendation and Target Price of Rs147, giving an upside of 43% from current levels.

Exhibit 18: Ceat trades at a discount to its peers (FY2010E)


Parameters JK Inds MRF Apollo Tyres Ceat
P/E 4.2 8.2 6.0 3.5
P/B 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.6
EV/Sales 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
EV/EBITA 4.0 4.3 3.0 3.2
Source: Angel Research; Industry, Note: For JK Industries and MRF valuation is as on Sep'09

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Profit & Loss Statement Rs crore Balance Sheet Rs crore


Y/E March FY2007 FY2008E FY2009E FY2010E Y/E March FY2007 FY2008E FY2009E FY2010E
Net Sales 2,133 2,290 2,473 2,721 SOURCES OF FUNDS
% chg 22.3 7.4 8.0 10.0 Equity Share Capital 45.7 34.3 34.3 34.3
Total Expenditure 1,995.3 2,100.2 2,262.3 2,490.1 Reserves & Surplus 333.0 385.9 466.1 549.1
EBIDTA 137.8 190.0 210.7 231.2 Shareholders Funds 378.6 420.2 500.3 583.3
(%of Net Sales) 6.5 8.3 8.5 8.5 Total Loans 492.3 452.3 427.3 417.3
Other Income 24.4 169.4 22.6 15.6 Deffered Tax Liability (net) 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3
Depreciation& Amortisation 31.1 30.5 35.5 40.1 Total Liabilities 894.2 895.7 950.9 1,023.8
Interest 70.3 58.8 55.5 54.2 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
PBT 60.9 270.1 142.2 152.4 Gross Block 1,113.0 1,174.5 1,268.2 1,432.2
(% of Net Sales) 2.9 11.8 5.8 5.6 Less: Acc.Depreciation 413.0 443.6 479.1 519.2
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (2.5) 104.0 - - Net Block 700.0 730.9 789.1 913.1
Tax 21.7 77.6 48.4 51.8 Capital Work-in-Progress 10.1 11.7 50.7 71.6
(% of PBT) 35.6 28.7 34.0 34.0 Investments 127.8 - - -
PAT 39.3 192.5 93.9 100.6 Current Assets 581.2 771.7 759.5 730.6
% chg - 390.4 (51.2) 7.2 Current liabilities 524.9 618.7 648.5 691.4
Ad. PAT 41.7 88.5 93.9 100.6 Net Current Assets 56.2 153.0 111.0 39.2
% chg 5,861.4 112.0 6.1 7.2 Total Assets 894.2 895.7 950.9 1,023.8

Cash Flow Statement Rs crore Key Ratios


Y/E March FY2007 FY2008E FY2009E FY2010E Y/E March FY2007 FY2008E FY2009E FY2010E

Profit before tax 60.9 270.1 142.2 152.4 Per Share Data(Rs)
Depreciation 31.1 30.5 35.5 40.1 EPS 8.6 56.2 27.4 29.4
(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital (12.4) 48.7 (27.9) (36.9) Cash EPS 15.4 34.7 37.8 41.1

Interest (Net) 68.3 56.8 53.6 52.3 DPS 1.8 3.0 3.5 4.5

Direct taxes paid 21.7 77.6 48.4 51.8 Book Value 82.9 122.6 146.0 170.3

Others (6.3) 10.6 0.1 (2.6) Operating Ratio


Inventory (days) 37.9 37.4 40.1 42.8
Cash Flow from Operations 120.0 339.1 155.2 153.5
Debtors (days) 45.0 44.6 43.7 42.9
Inc./(Dec.) in Fixed Assets 12.1 63.0 132.7 184.9
Creditors (days) 83.8 92.9 90.4 87.7
Free Cash Flow 107.9 276.1 22.5 (31.5)
Returns (%)
(Inc)/Dec in Investments - 127.8 - -
Adj RoE 10.4 21.1 18.8 17.2
Issue of Equity - (139.2) - -
RoCE 11.9 17.8 18.4 18.7
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (29.0) (40.0) (25.0) (10.0)
Dividend Payout 23.0 13.3 14.6 15.3
Dividend Paid (Incl.Tax) 9.6 11.7 13.7 13.7
Valuation Ratio (x)
Interest (Net) 68.3 56.8 53.6 52.3
P/E 12.0 1.8 3.8 3.5
Cash Flow from Financing (106.9) (247.8) (92.3) (76.0) P/E (CashEPS) 6.7 3.0 2.7 2.5
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 0.9 156.1 (69.7) (107.4) P/BV 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6
Opening Cash balances 39.6 40.6 196.7 126.9 EV/Sales 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Closing Cash balances 40.6 196.7 126.9 19.5 EV/EBITDA 5.8 3.2 3.1 3.2
Note:FY2008E, RoE has been adjusted for sale of land

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Ratings (Returns) Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5 to 15%) Neutral (5 to -5%) Reduce (> -5%) Sell (> -15%)

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