US industrial lubricants demand is forecast to
Features
Lubricant growth
forecasts
Corinne Gangloff
The author
Corinne Gangloff deals with media relations for the
Freedonia Group, Inc., an industrial market research firm
based in Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
Abstract
Summarizes the results of a recent study of the US
industrial lubricants industry. Highlights the negative
effect on volume gains that inevitably will occur
following the institution of fluid management programmes
incorporating recirculation and recycling efforts.
Industrial Lubrication and Tribology
Volume 49 · Number 4 · July/August 1997 · pp. 176–177
© MCB University Press · ISSN 0036-8792
176
increase nearly 2 per cent annually to 1.2
billion gallons in 2001 (see Table I). Gains
will be driven by healthy industrial production
and generally favourable trends in non-
durable markets, although growth has slowed
compared with the 1992-1996 period. How-
ever, over the long term, trends in lubricant
reformulation that stress longer-lasting, high
performance synthetic products will hamper
growth. Additionally, the institution of fluid
management programmes that incorporate
recirculation and recycling efforts will also
negatively affect volume gains.These and
other trends are presented in Industrial Lubri-
cants, a new study from The Freedonia Group
Inc., a Cleveland Ohio-based industrial
market research firm.
Process oils and general industrial oils,
which combined accounted for over 80 per
cent of total demand, will continue to domi-
nate industrial lubricant consumption
through the end of the century. Hydraulic
fluids will remain the largest product sector
with gains supported by the continued use of
hydraulic equipment in industrial applica-
tions, though some of these systems are being
replaced with electronic control systems.
Certain lubricants, such as fire-resistant
fluids, refrigeration oils and agricultural spray
oils, will experience above-average gains
based on increasingly stringent safety and
environmental standards. Process oils will
benefit from healthy rubber and plastics
markets but face some competition from
water-based formulations in personal care
applications.
Lubricants used in non-durable manufac-
turing, which accounted for nearly half of
total demand in 1996, will not only continue
to command a majority of the overall market,
but also exhibit the strongest growth, rising
just above 2 per cent per year. In non-
durables, advances will be driven by contin-
ued use of process oils, such as rubber and
electrical oils, which are ingredients in the
final product. In durables manufacturing,
demand for industrial lubricants will climb
less than 1 per cent annually, hampered pri-
marily by slowing machinery production and
metal fabrication.
Despite general market maturity, growth
opportunities do exist for certain lubricants.
For example, demand for speciality products
that are formulated for specific applications
will increase, as will the use of speciality
 Lubricant growth forecasts Industrial Lubrication and Tribology
Corinne Gangloff Volume 49 · Number 4 · July/August 1997 · 176–177

Table I US lubricant demand (million US gal) up to 2001

% Annual growth
1987 1992 1996 2001 96/92 01/96
Industrial lubricant demand 1,000 1,105 1,194 2.5 1.6
Process oils (44%) 406 488 534 4.7 1.8
General industrial oils (38%) 403 417 443 0.9 1.2
Other oils and greases (18%) 191 200 217 1.2 1.6
Value ($ million) 2,600 3,200 4,000 5.3 4.6
96/87
Automotive lubricant demand 1,584 1,537 1,595 –0.3 0.7
Engine oils 1,281 1,230 1,265 –0.5 0.6
Transmission/hydraulic fluids 226 240 260 0.7 1.6
Gear oil and other 77 67 70 –1.5 0.9
Value ($ million) 4,700 3.6

Editor’s note: 1,000 US gallons = 3,785 litres = 3.26 tonnes for density of 0.875 kg/l

products with enhanced performance
characteristics, such as thermal stability or
increased demulsifiability. Opportunities also
exist for biodegradable and other environ-
mentally-benign products and non-toxic
lubricants that ensure safe working condi-
tions.
US demand for automotive lubricants –
engine oils, transmission and hydraulic fluids,
gear oils and greases – is forecast to advance
less than 1 per cent annually to 1.6 billion
gallons in 2001 (see Table I). However,
above-average price increases and changes in
product mix will result in a 3.6 per cent
annual increase in value of lubricants to $4.7
billion. Gains will be hindered by increasing
drain intervals and the proliferation of lube-
for-life products. Continued environmental
regulations will also limit growth as original
equipment manufacturers and fleet customers
institute programmes to decrease lubricant
use.
Overall lubricant consumption will
increase, spurred primarily by the expanding
number of vehicles in use, both for light vehi-
cles and heavy trucks and buses. Additionally,
lubricant demand will benefit from the ageing
of US cars and trucks as well as the increase in
the number of miles driven per vehicle. Fur-
ther growth opportunities will exist for spe-
ciality and synthetic lubricants as well as those
products that are environmentally-friendly.
Certain products within the engine oils
sector, such as SAE 5W-30 and 10W-30 oils,
will exhibit above-average increases. These
oils, particularly 5W-30, will benefit from
their low viscosity and increasing original
equipment manufacture (OEM) specifica-
tion. Synthetic lubricants and synthetic/min-
eral blends will continue to affect the market,
as these products are generally perceived as
offering improved performance.
Environmentally-sound lubricants, such as
vegetable-oil-based products, will also be
sought as end-users face stringent regulations.
As engine designs become more sophisticat-
ed, conventional lubricants will be pushed to
the limit of their performance capabilities. As
such, opportunities exist for products per-
ceived as more environmentally friendly,
while simultaneously providing performance
benefits. In addition, several companies are
placing emphasis on niche markets and appli-
cations, such as focusing on synthetics.
Full details of the forecast trends are in
Industrial Lubricants (published March 1997,
241 pages), available for $3,200 and Automo-
tive Lubricants (published February 1997, 231
pages) available for $3,100 from The Freedo-
nia Group, Inc., 3570 Warrensville Center
Rd, Ste. 201, Cleveland, Ohio 44122-5226,
USA. Tel: 1 (216) 921-6800; Fax 1 (216)
921-5459; E-mail tfgi@ix.netcom.com.
Full text is also available online; contact
Freedonia.

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