ESSAY: SYSTEMS THINKING ENABLING PROSE

Fabián Szulanski, Director

System Dynamics Centre

Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires

fabiansz@hotmail.com

PURPOSE AND FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES

The author expects that sensibilization of system dynamicists possessing

different expertise levels through this essay, prompting them to de-jargon
and use simple phrases and questions that enable systems thinking, it will
be a point of departure for a much comprehensive and larger collective
work that will engross a conceptual portfolio, together with examples for
each additional concept, that will serve as a leverage to make systems
thinking available for the ‘base of the pyramid’, (people unaware of the
existence and usefulness of Systems Thinking) who are the vast majority of
the world population.

INTRODUCTION

It is known that being able to think systemically contributes to strengthen

the decision making process of people of all ages.

On the one hand several authors say (especially Prof Jay W Forrester), it is
convenient to provide systems thinking capabilities from an early age, and
continue until the end and beyond the academic and professional learning
process.

On the other hand, typical visual and conceptual tools from systems
thinking constitute strong barriers of entry to learning systems thinking,
which can even frustrate the novice wanting to initiate her learning process
of the systems approach, at every stage of the learner’s evolution.

The author of the present essay proposes, and makes the first step, the
introduction of a portfolio of key phrases and words that should be
encouraged to be used in everyday communication situations, that will
enable and sensitize systems thinking concurrently.

Phrases and words should be adapted to each learning stage and level of
expertise.
PROPOSED TAXONOMY

The following concepts and ideas are proposed by the author, as a point of
departure

Causality

• Direction

• Intensity

• Polarity

Feedback

Delays

• Information delays

• Material Delays

Nonlinearities

Dynamics

• Sense of variation

• Intensity

• Trajectory Shape

Structure

• Feedback Loop

• Stock

• Flow

Following this taxonomy, some “communication molecules” will be

presented for each category.
COMMUNICATION MOLECULES

Causality

Affects or is affected by – influences or is influenced – impacts or is

impacted – provokes or is provoked by

Direction: The former impacts the latter

Intensity: It can take the binary concepts of strongly and weakly, or

fuzzy concepts such as very weakly, weakly, fairly strongly, a lot, intensely,
very intensely.

Polarity: When this variable increases, the other decreases - When

this decreases, the other increases- When this increases, the other
increases as well – when this decreases, the other decreases as well. Both
change in the same direction – The two vary in opposite directions -Both
increase – Both decrease.

Feedback

That information is useful for deciding / designing… - It is necessary to know

about that variable for…

Delays

After a certain time – Everything takes time to accomplish – Nothing

happens instantaneously – First that will happen, then the other process will
start

Information delay: We decide based on our perceptions – Forming our

opinions take time- We make decisions filtering information from the real
world – We observe, we plan, we expect, we fear, we report… all those
filters take their time to build up – Everything depends on what lenses do
you use – It takes some time to be aware.

Material delay: Take care of your strategic resources – Avoid rapid

depletion – Try to make your resources last longer.

Nonlinearities

Isn’t proportional – This subtle action has a profound impact in – Changing

that persons attitude will take an enormous and long effort – When certain
threshold is trespassed, an effect starts to build up.
Dynamics

Change – Variation – Way – Movement – it isn’t static– Turbulence – Chaos –

Apparent stability.

Direction: Grows, goes up, increases, inflates – Decreases, goes down,

decreases, deflates, depletes.

Intensity: very subtly – subtly – fairly – something – pretty intensely –

intensely – very intensely – enormously

Trajectory Shape: Linear – Flat – Slope – Oscillates – Smoothes

gradually – Smoothes quickly – Grows quickly – Oscillates and then it gets
calm. Grows and then reaches a limit – Boom and bust – it adjusts to its
goal- it oscillates in a sustained way.

Structure

What originates that behavior? What elements could’ve been interacting so

that the issue appeared? “Why, Why, Why?”

Feedback Loop: Growth Process – Adjustment Process – Smoothing

process – Grows steeply – Grows exponentially- Both variables oscillate –
This process controls the other- This is limiting the resource’s growth.

Stock: It accumulates- Delayed – Inventory – Backlog -What is your

main resource? – What are that process main stages? What is your
perception of this issue? What do you think the biases of your decisions are?
What is it that is the most important? Resource – Strategic Resource.

Flow: What impacts on that resource’s growth? (Depletion) - What are

your main activities and tasks? What are your common corrective actions
you implement? – Processes
EXAMPLES

• Aesop Fable: During the last part of the race, the rabbit couldn’t reach
nor surpass the turtle.

• XYZ stock price has been increasing in a sustained way for the last 5
years. However, after the financial crack, it collapsed catastrophically,
generating a stampede of investors wanting to get rid of the stocks.

• Information saturation generates stress. The ever growing mass of

information provokes an exponential growth of stress level in
knowledge workers. This indicates that something has to be made, as
the cognitive saturation level from workers could be in risk of being
surpassed, increasing the probability of health illnesses, and
productivity decrease.

• An apparently inoffensive and effective policy could backfire. Let’s

see the following example from one of Dilbert books: A software
company manager designed the following incentive policy: An
incentive will be given for each coding error discovered. What was
programmers’ reaction? They started to invent errors so they could
increasingly ‘discover’ them. This move generated unreal and too
high incentives. What did the manager do? He changed the policy:
He offered an incentive for each percentage of coding error decrease.
This way, he kept motivation high, while increase coding quality and
dissolving the previous programmers’ reaction.

• Reputation is one of the main factors that contribute to an

organization’s brand value. An increase in reputation
generates an increase in brand value. Concurrently, each product and
service has attributes that in turn could increase the firm’s
reputation. Examples: Safety features in automobiles, punctuality in
mass transport systems, quantity and quality of clients of a bank,
manufacturing quality in high end products, among others. On the
other hand, if those attributes happened to decrease, reputation
would resent. It is known that consumers spread negative comments
much more than positive ones about the products and services they
consume. Thus it’s important to keep an eye on all those reputation
enhancers.
PROPOSED EXERCISES

Using as many of the “communication molecules” presented as you are

able, develop on the following exercises:

1. Choose a significant event in your life that could be described as

“something” that has changed in some direction. After the
description, ask yourself “Why?” three times, and answer each of
them.

2. Describe your financial risk aversion. What does it depend on? Why
could your risk tolerance threshold go up or down?

3. Narrate a recent history process, including what has been happening,

what the impact of those things was, the possible short and long term
consequences, and how to face or avoid them in the future.

4. A company is used to consistently hire consultants for the majority of

its challenges. What’s the potential problem with this? (Short and
Long term)

5. What’s the growth engine of your profession? Present the initiatives

you’ll implement for achieving your objectives. Anticipate the possible
challenges that could decelerate your professional growth, and how
would you face them.

CONCLUSIONS

The author has introduced a conceptual systems thinking related taxonomy

that could be verbalized, communicated and acknowledged easier than
when using the classical, and more complex systems thinking tools. Using
the communication molecules could help people grasp systemic issues in a
more fluent manner.

Some generic examples have been provided, with more concrete examples.
Additionally, the author has provided some examples.

This is the very first step and a humble point of departure that might inspire
other people interested in change the way they do storytelling.