Monthly Update | September 2010

October 1, 2010

Vaishali Jajoo
Auto Sector +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 344
vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Festive cheer
Yaresh Kothari
Auto sales surged in September 2010, posting double-digit growth for the fourth +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 313
month in a row. Growth was driven by upbeat consumer sentiment and buoyant yareshb.kothari@angeltrade.com
demand because of the upcoming festive season. All two- and four-wheeler
majors continued to maintain strong sales momentum, recording robust sales
growth during the month, largely aided by healthy economic growth and easy
financing. Further, pre-festive season stocking by dealers led to higher volumes.
Demand for vehicles continued to surpass supply, despite the price hike by most
auto majors because of high commodity prices and changes in emission norms.

Tata Motors (TML) reported 23.1% yoy growth in total volumes, with the
passenger vehicles (PV) segment growing by 32.4% yoy and the commercial
vehicles (CV) segment growing 18% yoy during the month. Growth in the PV
segment was aided by 31.3% yoy increase in the cars category, with Indigo
leading the pack. Nano volumes declined 31.9% mom. The CV segment grew by
18% yoy on the back of growth in the medium and heavy commercial vehicles
(M&HCV) segment, which grew 28.9% yoy. Exports continued to report strong
performance, growing 76.6% yoy.

Maruti Suzuki (Maruti) continued to report strong set of numbers, which came in
slightly higher than our estimates. The company reported the highest-ever
monthly sales during September, growing 3.1% mom. September volumes grew
by 29.6% yoy to 108,006 units (83,306), led by the 32.9% yoy increase in
domestic sales to 95,148 units. Exports during the month grew 9.8% yoy to
12,858 units. The company maintained its growth momentum in the A2, A3 and
C segments, registering 31.3%, 43.2% and 66.6% growth, respectively, in
September 2010.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) reported robust overall growth of 15.9% yoy in
total sales to 52,658 units (45,420) in September 2010, aided by 23.7% yoy
growth in the automotive segment. The four-wheeler pick-up segment grew
substantially by 38.9% yoy, led by strong performance by GIO and Maxximo
vehicles. The UV segment grew 8.1% yoy, led by Scorpio and Xylo. Logan and
LCV sales grew at a strong pace, albeit on a low base. Domestic tractor sales
grew 30.9% on an mom basis, while it declined marginally on a yoy basis. M&M
continued to post strong numbers on the tractor exports front, growing by
88.4% yoy. Management has indicated that the supply constraint on the UV and
tractor front has eased out to a certain extent.

Two and three-wheelers: Bajaj Auto (BAL) continued to lead the two-wheeler pack,
posting sales growth of 25.6%, with Pulsar (90,000 units) and Discover (145,000
units) doing exceedingly well and posting the highest-ever sales during the month.
Hero Honda (HH) reported robust 8.1% growth in sales volume, despite a high
base of last year, selling 433,641 units (401,290) led by strong growth across
segments. TVS Motor (TVS) continued to maintain impressive 30.8% yoy growth,
led by robust growth in all two and three-wheeler market segments.

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

Tata Motors

Tata Motors’ total volumes grew
23.1% yoy, Nano volumes down
31.9% mom
„ TML registered 23.1% yoy growth in total sales to 64,668 units (52,513).
„ The CV segment recorded 18% yoy growth aided by the M&HCV segment,
which registered substantial 28.9% yoy growth.

„ The PV segment reported strong 32.4% yoy growth, with dispatches of 8,783
units of Indigo, up 248% yoy.

„ Nano recorded a 31.9% mom decline in sales at 5,520 units.

„ The Sumo/Safari/Xenon XT range reported sales of 3,316 units, up 39.7% yoy.

Exhibit 1: Tata Motors - Sales trend

September YTD
Segment 2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg
Total Sales 64,668 52,513 23.1 380,116 273,490 39.0
M&HCV 18,155 14,082 28.9 98,733 67,008 47.3
LCV 21,656 19,651 10.2 127,169 105,223 20.9
Total Commercial Vehicles 39,811 33,733 18.0 225,902 172,231 31.2
Utility Vehicles 3,420 2,455 39.3 19,541 15,973 22.3
Cars 21,437 16,325 31.3 134,673 85,286 57.9
Total Passenger Vehicles 24,857 18,780 32.4 154,214 101,259 52.3
Export (Included above) 5,057 2,863 76.6 26,698 13,222 101.9

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: CV segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume(LHS) % yoy growth(RHS) (%)
50,000 200
45,000
40,000 150
35,000 100
30,000
25,000 50
20,000
15,000 0
10,000 (50)
5,000
0 (100)
Sep-08

Nov-08

Sep-09

Nov-09

Sep-10
May-09

May-10
Jan-09

Jan-10
Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

September 1, 2010 2
 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

Exhibit 3: PV segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume(LHS) % yoy growth(RHS) (%)
35,000 80
30,000 60
25,000
40
20,000
20
15,000
0
10,000
5,000 (20)

0 (40)

Nov-08

Nov-09
May-09

May-10
Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Jan-09

Jan-10
Source: Company, Angel Research

Maruti Suzuki

Highest-ever total monthly sales, up
3.1% mom; Meeting domestic demand
remains a priority because of the
upcoming festive season
„ Maruti registered sales growth of 29.6% yoy to 108,006 units (83,306).
„ The company registered 32.9% yoy increase in domestic sales volumes and a
9.8% yoy increase in exports.
„ The A2 segment grew 31.3% yoy; sales of the C segment increased by
66.6% yoy on the back of encouraging numbers from Eeco. The A3 segment
posted healthy growth of 43.2%, led by strong performance from Dzire.

„ Sales in the B segment grew 17.7% yoy.

Exhibit 4: Maruti Suzuki - Sales trend

September YTD
Segment 2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg
Total Sales 108,006 83,306 29.6 596,978 472,917 26.2
A1 M800 1,608 3,207 (49.9) 12,113 15,856 (23.6)
C Omni, Versa, Eeco 13,822 8,297 66.6 75,117 44,433 69.1
A2 Alto, WagonR, Zen, Swift, A-Star, Ritz 68,921 52,508 31.3 369,466 299,829 23.2
A3 SX4, Dzire 10,531 7,356 43.2 60,320 44,225 36.4
Total Domestic Passenger Cars 94,882 71,368 32.9 517,016 404,343 27.9
B: MUV’s Gypsy, Grand Vitara 266 226 17.7 3,807 2,155 76.7
Total Domestic Passenger Vehicles 95,148 71,594 32.9 520,823 406,498 28.1
Exports 12,858 11,712 9.8 76,155 66,419 14.7

Source: Company, Angel Research

September 1, 2010 3
 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

Exhibit 5: PV segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume(LHS) % yoy growth(RHS) (%)
120,000 80

100,000 60

80,000 40

60,000 20

40,000 0

20,000 (20)

0 (40)

Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Nov-08

Nov-09
May-09

May-10
Jan-09

Jan-10
Source: Company, Angel Research

Mahindra & Mahindra

M&M’s volumes grew 15.9% yoy; Total
auto sales up 23.7% yoy; Maxximo
doing well
„ M&M’s monthly sales grew by robust 15.9% yoy to 52,658 units (45,420).
„ The tractor segment was marginally up by 2.9% yoy. While domestic tractor
sales declined 0.4% yoy, exports registered a substantial 88.4% increase. On
an mom basis, domestic tractor sales grew 30.9% during September 2010.

„ The automotive segment grew substantially by 23.7% yoy, led by strong

growth in Logan, LCV, four-wheeler pick-up and three-wheeler sales.

„ The UV segment (including Xylo and Bolero) reported 8.1% yoy growth, while
the LCV segment reported 53.2% yoy growth. Logan sales were up 96.1% yoy.

„ The four-wheeler pick-up segment was up 38.9%, led by strong performance

from Maxximo and GIO.

Exhibit 6: Mahindra & Mahindra - Sales trend

September YTD
Segment 2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg
Total Sales 52,658 45,420 15.9 269,879 220,146 22.6
Passenger Utility Vehicles 16,537 15,296 8.1 80,467 73,430 9.6
Four-wheel pick up (GIO + Maxximo) 9,255 6,665 38.9 46,835 30,570 53.2
LCV 1,069 698 53.2 5,926 4,869 21.7
Logan 1,000 510 96.1 3,869 2,901 33.4
Three wheelers 6,005 4,262 40.9 28,665 20,752 38.1
Exports 1,311 1,003 30.7 8,460 3,757 125.2
Total Automotive Sales 35,177 28,434 23.7 174,222 136,279 27.8
Domestic Tractor Sales 16,300 16,359 (0.4) 90,004 80,611 11.7
Exports Tractor Sales 1,181 627 88.4 5,653 3,256 73.6
Total Tractor Sales 17,481 16,986 2.9 95,657 83,867 14.1

Source: Company, Angel Research

September 1, 2010 4
 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

Exhibit 7: UV segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%)
30,000 140
120
25,000 100
20,000 80
60
15,000 40
20
10,000 0
5,000 (20)
(40)
0 (60)

Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-08

Nov-08

Sep-09

Nov-09

Sep-10
May-09

May-10
Jan-09

Jan-10
Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 8: Tractor segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%)
20,000 200
18,000
16,000 150
14,000
12,000 100
10,000
8,000 50
6,000
4,000 0
2,000
0 (50)
Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Nov-08

Nov-09
May-09

May-10
Jan-09

Jan-10
Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto continued to lead
two-wheeler segment and posted
highest-ever motorcycle sales
the „ Bajaj Auto reported overall sales growth of 25.6% yoy to 352,769 units
the (280,916).
„ The motorcycle segment posted the highest-ever sales for the month,
registering 26.2% yoy growth, with Pulsar and Discover registering sales of
90,000 and 145,000, respectively.

„ The three-wheeler segment reported 22.9% yoy growth to 38,254 units

(31,121 units).

„ Exports posted strong growth of 26.4%, with robust demand from Sri Lanka,
Egypt, Colombia, Bangladesh and African markets.

September 1, 2010 5
 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

Exhibit 9: Bajaj Auto - Sales trend

September YTD
Segment 2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg
Total Sales 352,769 280,916 25.6 1,928,884 1,234,485 56.3
Motorcycles 314,515 249,133 26.2 1,711,863 1,082,464 58.1
Scooters - 662 - 27 3,533 (99.2)
Total 2-Wheelers 314,515 249,795 25.9 1,711,890 1,085,997 57.6
Three-Wheelers 38,254 31,121 22.9 216,994 148,488 46.1
Export (Included above) 101,960 80,681 26.4 631,231 402,725 56.7

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Motorcycle segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%)
350,000 120
300,000 100
80
250,000
60
200,000 40
150,000 20
0
100,000
(20)
50,000 (40)
0 (60)
Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-08

Nov-08

Sep-09

Nov-09

Sep-10
May-09

May-10
Jan-09

Jan-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: Three-wheeler segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%)
45,000 120
40,000 100
35,000
80
30,000
25,000 60
20,000 40
15,000
20
10,000
5,000 0
0 (20)
Nov-08

Nov-09
May-09

May-10
Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Jan-09

Jan-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

September 1, 2010 6
 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

Hero Honda

HH posted strong sales growth, up „ Hero Honda (HH) sold 433,641 units (401,290) during the month, registering
8.1% yoy; Introduced two new bikes: strong growth of 8.1% yoy.
New Super Splendor and Splendor Pro
„ Growth is impressive as it comes on the back of a high base effect of last year.

„ HH introduced two new bikes: New Super Splendor and Splendor Pro.

„ Ongoing constraints in the supply of key components continue to restrict

overall sales growth.

„ Moreover, HH is planning a couple of more launches, for the upcoming festive

season, to help it sustain its pace of growth.

Exhibit 12: Hero Honda - Sales trend

September YTD
2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg
Total Sales 433,641 401,290 8.1 2,519,983 2,302,222 9.5

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 13: Two-wheeler segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume(LHS) % yoy growth(RHS) (%)
500,000 80
450,000 70
400,000 60
350,000 50
300,000 40
250,000 30
200,000 20
150,000 10
100,000 0
50,000 (10)
0 (20)
Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-08

Nov-08

Sep-09

Nov-09

Sep-10
May-09

May-10
Jan-09

Jan-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

TVS Motor

TVS Motor reports the highest-ever sales „ TVS Motor reported 30.8% yoy growth in overall volumes to 188,005 units
in September 2010, up 30.8% (143,753).

„ Domestic sales grew 26.3% yoy to 168,640 units (133,481).

„ The scooter segment recorded 43.7% yoy growth to 43,086 units (29,984).

„ The motorcycle segment grew by 34% yoy to 81,381 units (60,718).

„ Exports reported impressive growth of 88.5% to 19,365 units (10,272).

„ Three-wheeler sales were up 168.5% to 3,222 units (1,200).

September 1, 2010 7
 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

Exhibit 14: TVS Motor - Sales trend

September YTD
Segment / Model 2010 2009 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg
Total Sales 188,005 143,753 30.8 988,788 742,938 33.1
Motorcycles 81,381 60,718 34.0 409,364 307,621 33.1
Scooters 43,086 29,984 43.7 219,842 153,489 43.2
Mopeds 60,316 51,851 16.3 341,827 276,460 23.6
Total 2-Wheelers 184,783 142,553 29.6 971,033 737,570 31.7
Export (Included above) 19,365 10,272 88.5 112,504 66,436 69.3
3-Wheelers 3,222 1,200 168.5 17,755 5,368 230.8

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 15: Scooter segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%)
50,000 60
45,000 50
40,000 40
35,000 30
30,000
20
25,000
10
20,000
15,000 0
10,000 (10)
5,000 (20)
0 (30)
Nov-08

Nov-09
May-09

May-10
Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Jan-09

Jan-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 16: Motorcycle segment- Monthly sales trend

(units) Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%)
90,000 50
80,000 40
70,000 30
60,000
20
50,000
10
40,000
0
30,000
20,000 (10)
10,000 (20)
0 (30)
Nov-08

Nov-09
May-09

May-10
Jul-09

Jul-10
Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10
Jan-09

Jan-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

September 1, 2010 8
 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

Outlook

We remain positive on the Indian auto sector. We estimate overall auto volumes to
register ~13% CAGR over FY2010-12E, aided by the improved business
environment for the sector. Over the long term, comparatively low penetration
levels, a healthy economic environment and favourable demographics supported
by higher per-capita income levels are likely to help auto companies in sustaining
their top-line growth. However, increased input costs and interest rates are the
anticipated headwinds that could affect the sector’s volume and earnings growth.
We expect rising input costs to restrict profitability, despite having a positive view
on demand. We prefer stocks where strong and improving fundamentals could
deliver positive earnings surprises. We maintain our positive stand on Maruti, M&M
and Tata Motors.

Exhibit 17: Relative valuation and recommendation

CMP TP Sales (Rs cr) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) FY 10-12E
Companies Reco
(Rs) (Rs) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E EPS CAGR

Ashok Leyland Neutral 75 - 10,062 11,781 16.7 14.0 3.8 3.3 15.7 17.2 11.7 10.0 36.5
Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,544 - 16,083 18,593 19.4 16.5 13.6 10.6 74.3 72.4 12.9 10.8 26.2
Hero Honda Neutral 1,844 - 18,033 20,153 16.2 14.7 8.5 7.1 58.2 52.6 12.0 10.4 9.8
Maruti Accumulate 1,483 1,640 34,402 40,508 17.9 14.5 2.9 2.4 18.0 16.5 10.0 7.6 10.7
M&M Accumulate 714 778 21,885 25,351 18.6 16.4 4.4 3.7 24.8 23.3 12.2 10.2 11.5
Tata Motors Accumulate 1,119 1,214 110,181 124,634 9.0 8.3 4.8 3.2 64.9 46.1 6.0 4.7 173.2
TVS Motor Neutral 74 - 6,197 7,011 16.5 12.6 3.7 3.3 23.4 27.7 9.4 7.0 58.1

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Market price as of October 1, 2010

September 1, 2010 9
 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com

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its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership Angel and its Group companies Angel and its Group companies' Broking relationship
of the stock ownership of the stock Directors ownership of the stock with company covered
Ashok Leyland No Yes No No
Tata Motors Yes Yes No No
Maruti Suzuki Yes Yes No No
Mahindra & Mahindra Yes No No No
Bajaj Auto No No No No
Hero Honda No No No No
TVS Motor No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

September 1, 2010 10
 Auto Sector Update | September 2010

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Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
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Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
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Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
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Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
John Perinchery Capital Goods john.perinchery@angeltrade.com
Srishti Anand IT, Telecom srishti.anand@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com
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Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
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Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com
Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) yareshb.kothari@angeltrade.com
Shrinivas Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) shrinivas.bhutda@angeltrade.com
Sreekanth P.V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) sreekanth.s@angeltrade.com
Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) hemang.thaker@angeltrade.com
Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) nitin.arora@angeltrade.com

Technicals:
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Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
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September 1, 2010 11