Tugas PPI Dasar-dasar Pemodelan Transportasi Kelas A

Afriza Telakurnia

1. Tunjukan Regresi dalam excel?

Dari hasil survei di suatu wilayah studi diperoleh hubungan antara jumlah mobil dan perjalanan tiap hari sebagai berikut
Zone Perjalanan Jumlah Mobil
1 300 50
2 500 200
3 200 100
4 1300 500
5 1200 400
6 400 100
7 1000 400
8 900 300
Y X

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,97474718
R Square 0,950132066
Adjusted R Square 0,941820743
Standard Error 102,9414206
Observations 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1211418,384 1211418,384 114,3177966 3,9501E-05
Residual 6 63581,61648 10596,93608
Total 7 1275000

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%
Intercept 89,85736926 69,66656524 1,289820575 0,244594074 -80,61057486 260,3253134 -80,61057486 260,3253134
X Variable 1 2,478605388 0,231819768 10,69195008 3,9501E-05 1,911362851 3,045847926 1,911362851 3,045847926
2. Cari hubungan antara jumlah perjalanan dan jumlah mobil, jika dianggap hubungan keduanya linier

Y X
2
Zone Perjalanan Jumlah Mobil X XY
1 300 50 2500 15000
2 500 200 40000 100000
3 200 100 10000 20000
4 1300 500 250000 650000
5 1200 400 160000 480000
6 400 100 10000 40000
7 1000 400 160000 400000
8 900 300 90000 270000
∑ 5800 2050 722500 1975000
rata-rata 725 256,25

3910000
b= = 2,478605388
1577500

a= 89,85736926

maka didapatkan persamaan garis Regresi, yaitu :

Y = 89,85736926 + 2,478605388 X

4. probability penggunaan public transit untuk orang dengan pendapatan 10.000 dolar
car : Uc = -0,3 - 0,04X - 0,1Y - 0,03C
public transit : Up = -0.04X - 0,1Y - 0,03C
Car Public transit Uc = -1,40009
X in vehicle time (min) 15 20 Up = -1,8000225
Y out of vehicle time (min) 5 10
C travel cost (cents) 300 75

exp Up 0,165295169
P= = = 0,401328558 = 40,13%
exp Uc + exp Up 0,41186994
3. selesaikan tabel Origin - Destination di bawah ini

A B C D TOTAL
A 0 120
B 0 280
C 0 240
D 0 360
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000

penyelesaian dimisalkan kita ambil 40 untuk mengisi kolom-kolom kosng, maka didapatkan :
A B C D TOTAL Oi
A 0 40 40 40 120 1
B 40 0 40 40 280 2,333333333
C 40 40 0 40 240 2
D 40 40 40 0 360 3
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000

iterasi 1 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 40 40 40 120 1
B 93,33333333 0 93,33333333 93,33333333 280 1
C 80 80 0 80 240 1
D 120 120 120 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 293,3333333 240 253,3333333 213,3333333
Bd 0,767045455 1,3125 1,322368421 0,5859375

iterasi 2 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 52,5 52,89473684 23,4375 120 0,931443891
B 71,59090909 0 123,4210526 54,6875 280 1,121348032
C 61,36363636 105 0 46,875 240 1,1254996
D 92,04545455 157,5 158,6842105 0 360 0,88185654
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
 Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 3 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 48,90080429 49,26847951 21,8307162 120 1
B 80,27832502 0 138,3979545 61,3237205 280 1
C 69,0647482 118,177458 0 52,75779376 240 1
D 81,17088608 138,8924051 139,9367089 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 230,5139593 305,9706674 327,6031428 135,9122305
Bd 0,976079716 1,029510452 1,022578712 0,919711196

iterasi 4 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,34388911 50,38089834 20,0779541 120 0,993354939
B 78,35804471 0 141,5228021 56,40011231 280 1,013461083
C 67,41269983 121,6649282 0 48,52193359 240 1,010102874
D 79,22925545 142,9911827 143,0962996 0 360 0,985446225
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 5 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,00935091 50,04611421 19,94453488 120 1
B 79,41282885 0 143,4278523 57,1593189 280 1
C 68,09376183 122,8940936 0 49,01214456 240 1
D 78,07617068 140,9101211 141,0137082 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,5827613 313,8135657 334,4876747 126,1159983
Bd 0,997416641 1,003780698 1,001531672 0,991151017

iterasi 6 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19842117 50,12276843 19,76804603 120 0,999256922
B 79,20767697 0 143,6475367 56,65351705 280 1,001757617
 C 67,91785117 123,3587191 0 48,57843692 240 1,000604502
D 77,87447187 141,4428598 141,2296949 0 360 0,998482787
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 7 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,16111984 50,08552332 19,75335683 120 1
B 79,34689373 0 143,900014 56,75309224 280 1
C 67,95890765 123,4332897 0 48,60780269 240 1
D 77,75631973 141,2282609 141,0154194 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,0621211 314,8226704 335,0009568 125,1142518
Bd 0,999723982 1,000563268 0,999997144 0,999086821

iterasi 8 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,18937401 50,08538028 19,73531847 120 0,999916067
B 79,32499259 0 143,899603 56,70126649 280 1,000264848
C 67,94014979 123,5028157 0 48,56341504 240 0,999973415
D 77,73485761 141,3078103 141,0150167 0 360 0,999839791
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 9 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,18516148 50,08117648 19,73366204 120 1
B 79,34600168 0 143,9377146 56,71628372 280 1
C 67,93834361 123,4995324 0 48,56212398 240 1
D 77,72240378 141,2851714 140,9924248 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,0067491 314,9698653 335,0113159 125,0120697
Bd 0,999970005 1,000095675 0,999966222 0,999903451
iterasi 10 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,18996294 50,07948486 19,73175678 120 0,999989962
B 79,3436217 0 143,9328527 56,71080784 280 1,000045422
C 67,9363058 123,5113482 0 48,55743538 240 0,999978795
D 77,7200725 141,2986889 140,9876624 0 360 0,999982157
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 11 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,18945913 50,07898216 19,73155871 120 1
B 79,34722569 0 143,9393905 56,71338379 280 1
C 67,93486519 123,5087291 0 48,55640571 240 1
D 77,7186857 141,2961676 140,9851467 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,0007766 314,9943558 335,0035194 125,0013482
Bd 0,999996549 1,000017918 0,999989495 0,999989214

iterasi 12 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19035844 50,07845606 19,7313459 120 0,999998663
B 79,34695182 0 143,9378784 56,7127721 280 1,000008563
C 67,93463072 123,5109422 0 48,555882 240 0,999993938
D 77,71841746 141,2986994 140,9836656 0 360 0,999997827
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 13 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19029135 50,07838912 19,73131952 120 1
B 79,34763129 0 143,939111 56,71325775 280 1
C 67,9342189 123,5101934 0 48,55558766 240 1
D 77,71824855 141,2983923 140,9833592 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
 Dj 225,0000987 314,9988771 335,0008592 125,0001649
Bd 0,999999561 1,000003565 0,999997435 0,999998681

iterasi 14 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19047027 50,07826068 19,73129349 120 0,999999796
B 79,34759647 0 143,9387418 56,71318292 280 1,00000171
C 67,93418909 123,5106337 0 48,55552359 240 0,999998557
D 77,71821444 141,298896 140,9829976 0 360 0,9999997
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 15 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19046005 50,07825048 19,73128947 120 1
B 79,34773217 0 143,9389879 56,71327991 280 1
C 67,93409103 123,5104555 0 48,55545351 240 1
D 77,71819113 141,2988536 140,9829553 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,0000143 314,9997691 335,0001937 125,0000229
Bd 0,999999936 1,000000733 0,999999422 0,999999817

iterasi 16 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19049684 50,07822153 19,73128586 120 0,999999965
B 79,34772711 0 143,9389047 56,71326953 280 1,000000352
C 67,93408671 123,510546 0 48,55544462 240 0,999999678
D 77,71818618 141,2989572 140,9828738 0 360 0,999999952
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 17 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19049507 50,07821977 19,73128516 120 1
B 79,34775507 0 143,9389554 56,71328951 280 1
 C 67,93406482 123,5105062 0 48,55542898 240 1
D 77,71818248 141,2989505 140,9828671 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,0000024 314,9999517 335,0000422 125,0000036
Bd 0,999999989 1,000000153 0,999999874 0,999999971

iterasi 18 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19050276 50,07821345 19,73128459 120 0,999999993
B 79,34775423 0 143,9389373 56,71328785 280 1,000000074
C 67,9340641 123,5105251 0 48,55542756 240 0,99999993
D 77,71818166 141,2989721 140,9828493 0 360 0,999999992
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 19 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19050243 50,07821312 19,73128446 120 1
B 79,34776008 0 143,9389479 56,71329203 280 1
C 67,93405935 123,5105165 0 48,55542416 240 1
D 77,718181 141,2989709 140,9828481 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,0000004 314,9999898 335,0000091 125,0000007
Bd 0,999999998 1,000000032 0,999999973 0,999999995

iterasi 20 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19050405 50,07821176 19,73128435 120 0,999999999
B 79,34775993 0 143,938944 56,71329174 280 1,000000016
C 67,93405922 123,5105205 0 48,55542391 240 0,999999985
D 77,71818085 141,2989755 140,9828443 0 360 0,999999998
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1
iterasi 21 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19050398 50,07821169 19,73128433 120 1
B 79,34776116 0 143,9389462 56,71329262 280 1
C 67,9340582 123,5105186 0 48,55542318 240 1
D 77,71818073 141,2989752 140,982844 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,0000001 314,9999978 335,0000019 125,0000001
Bd 1 1,000000007 0,999999994 0,999999999

iterasi 22 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19050432 50,0782114 19,73128431 120 1
B 79,34776116 0 143,9389454 56,71329256 280 1,000000003
C 67,9340582 123,5105195 0 48,55542313 240 0,999999997
D 77,71818073 141,2989762 140,9828432 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,0000001 315 335 125
Bd 1 1 1 1

iterasi 23 A B C D Oi Ao
A 0 50,19050432 50,0782114 19,73128431 120 1
B 79,34776141 0 143,9389458 56,71329274 280 1
C 67,93405797 123,5105195 0 48,55542297 240 0,999999998
D 77,71818069 141,2989762 140,9828432 0 360 1
TOTAL 225 315 335 125 1000
Dj 225,0000001 315 335,0000005 125
Bd 1 1 0,999999999 1

5. Jika link 2-4 dan 4-2 dibuatkan jalur khusus (bisa BRT,LRT,MRT) dan menurunkan waktu tempuh menjadi 10 menit