Indonesia Market Update

Mastono Ali
Analyst

2012
 Background
• Krisis Eropa & Global slowdown
• Perpindahan investasi dari negara maju (developed countries)
ke negara berkembang (emerging countries)
• Indonesia
• Inflasi
• Reformasi
• Investment grade
• SDM & SDA
• Middle class (golongan menengah), konsumsi domestik

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Background

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Background

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 Background
Inflasi Benchmark rate

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 Background
• BI terlihat tidak ingin mempengaruhi pertumbuhan kredit,
karena kondisi ekonomi Indonesia yang “underleveraged”.
• Bank credit/GDP ratio masih 27%, atau terendah dalam
regional.
• Prediksi Inflasi akhir tahun akan meningkat dari 5.9%
menjadi 7.3% dengan GDP tetap di 6.4%

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Background

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 Key challenge
External:
• Potensi perpecahan EU
• Masalah Yunani
• Masalah ekonomi di US
• Ketegangan Iran

6.2 – 6.0%

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Key challenge

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 Key challenge
Internal:
– Ancaman inflasi
– Kenaikan harga BBM
– Ekspor akan turun seiring dengan global slowdown
– Kasus korupsi dan legal
– Kasus tenaga kerja/buruh
– Birokrasi
– Infrastruktur
– Ancaman cuaca
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 Key challenge
• Pemerintah Indonesia akhirnya berencana menaikan harga BBM sebesar
Rp1500 atau 33% menjadi Rp6000/liter.
• Pembeli mobil seharusnya tidak terlalu terpengaruh karena daya beli
mereka. Namun penjualan motor akan terpengaruh
• BI juga mengeluarkan aturan yang mengatur down payment kredit
kendaraan. Dampak jangka pendek adalah perlambatan kredit pada
multifinance/bank namun secara jangka panjang adalah NPL yang lebih
baik.

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Key challenge

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Key challenge

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Key challenge

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 Catalyst
Agency Current rating Notches below IG Last upgrade Last achieved
S&P BB+ 1 10-Apr-11
Moody's Baa3 0 18-Jan-12 1997
Fitch BBB- 0 15-Dec-11 1997

Dampak Positif dari investment grade:

– Naiknya FDI dan porfolio investment
– Menurunkan beban financing/obligasi baik negara maupun
korporasi
– Symbolis dan ditunggu-tunggu
– Ditengah krisis Eropa

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Catalyst

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Catalyst

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 Catalyst
Regulasi pemerintah:
• Pengadaan tanah/Pembebasan lahan (land clearing)

• Jaminan pemerintah untuk projek infrastruktur

• UU tenaga kerja

• Tax holiday dan pengurangan pajak

• Pembatasan ekspor komoditas mentah

• Proteksionisme hasil tambang. Kepemilikan asing akan

dibatasi hingga 49% setelah 5 tahun hingga tahun ke-10
sejak berproduksi.
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 CIMB outlook for 2012
CIMB memberi target JCI akhir tahun 2012 ini sebesar 4450 atau
12.5x CY13 PER, 3yr average PER. Saham pilihan kami adalah
ASII, GGRM, UNVR (consumer), INTP, JSMR (infra). Medium
caps: IMAS, ISAT, MDRN, ASRI, CTRA

Sejumlah faktor yang menjadi pertimbangan kami:

• GDP/capita
• UU lahan
• Investment grade

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 Sector & stock picks
Price Target Price Market Cap Core P/E (x) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE (%)
Company Bloomberg Ticker Recom.
(local curr) (local curr) (US$ m) CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
Auto Part
Selamat Sempurna SMSM IJ OUTPERFORM 1,560 1,950 251 10.9 9.5 3.67 3.45 37.6% 37.8% 41.2%

Banking
Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ NEUTRAL 8,100 10,000 22,289 19.7 16.9 5.00 4.31 27.7% 27.4% 28.5%
Bank Bukopin BBKP IJ OUTPERFORM 610.0 1,200 542 6.2 5.7 1.11 0.97 19.3% 18.1% 18.7%
Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ OUTPERFORM 3,700 5,200 7,701 12.7 10.4 1.87 1.67 15.7% 16.9% 19.8%
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ UNDERPERFORM 7,000 7,300 19,273 12.0 10.8 3.66 2.96 34.6% 30.3% 28.9%
Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN IJ OUTPERFORM 1,240 2,000 1,222 11.3 9.3 1.53 1.40 14.3% 15.7% 17.3%
Bank Danamon BDMN IJ UNDERPERFORM 4,650 4,600 4,974 12.9 12.0 1.74 1.59 14.8% 13.8% 14.0%
Bank Jabar Banten BJBR IJ NEUTRAL 1,060 1,040 1,147 10.0 9.2 1.87 1.71 19.7% 19.5% 20.3%
Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ OUTPERFORM 7,050 9,400 18,359 12.8 10.7 2.67 2.33 23.7% 23.3% 24.8%
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan BTPN IJ NEUTRAL 3,200 3,900 2,023 15.7 12.0 3.37 2.62 24.3% 24.6% 24.9%
Bank Panin PNBN IJ OUTPERFORM 790.0 1,020 2,123 13.8 11.6 1.37 1.22 10.7% 11.1% 11.6%
Sector average 13.9 11.9 2.88 2.49 23.0% 22.4% 23.4%

Cement
Indocement INTP IJ OUTPERFORM 17,700 22,000 7,272 17.3 14.6 4.07 3.35 25.9% 25.1% 25.7%

sapu saja 4 lapis kanan

Holcim Indonesia SMCB IJ OUTPERFORM 2,300 2,800 1,967 15.2 12.7 2.26 1.97 15.9% 16.5% 17.6%
Semen Gresik SMGR IJ TRADING BUY 11,600 13,000 7,679 17.2 13.4 4.87 4.03 30.8% 32.9% 29.2%
Sector average 17.0 13.8 3.99 3.33 25.6% 26.2% 25.4%

Coal Mining
Adaro Energy ADRO IJ OUTPERFORM 1,830 2,675 6,533 11.7 10.6 2.64 2.31 24.3% 23.2% 27.6%
Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN IJ UNDERPERFORM 870.0 1,000.0 1,718 10.1 6.4 1.93 1.55 21.2% 26.9% 22.0%
Bumi Resources BUMI IJ TRADING BUY 2,525 3,025 5,854 11.1 9.0 2.89 2.35 29.0% 28.7% 29.1%
Harum Energy HRUM IJ OUTPERFORM 7,250 10,475 2,188 12.8 9.7 7.52 6.51 62.7% 72.2% 78.1%
Indika Energy INDY IJ TRADING BUY 2,525 2,950 1,468 10.9 7.6 2.10 1.79 20.6% 25.8% 25.0%
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG IJ NEUTRAL 38,950 45,000 4,912 10.9 9.4 5.23 4.12 54.5% 49.1% 40.9%
Bukit Asam PTBA IJ OUTPERFORM 19,950 21,900 5,130 13.5 11.4 5.24 4.14 45.3% 40.8% 39.4%
Sector average 11.6 9.5 3.35 2.78 31.9% 32.0% 31.9%

Consumer (incl Auto)

Astra International ASII IJ OUTPERFORM 78,650 77,200 35,536 18.2 15.9 5.28 4.39 32.3% 30.2% 28.9%
Indomobil Sukses Int'l IMAS IJ OUTPERFORM 14,850 14,900 2,292 27.4 15.9 4.28 3.50 25.0% 24.3% 27.2%
Ace Hardware Indonesia ACES IJ OUTPERFORM 4,100 4,500 785 28.4 21.6 5.99 4.85 22.8% 25.9% 27.3%
Gudang Garam GGRM IJ OUTPERFORM 57,900 67,400 12,434 21.9 18.8 4.69 4.17 22.7% 23.5% 24.9%
Indofood CBP ICBP IJ UNDERPERFORM 5,050 5,000 3,286 15.0 14.3 2.89 2.57 20.8% 18.5% 18.1%
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF IJ UNDERPERFORM 4,850 5,500 4,753 13.7 13.4 2.23 2.03 17.4% 15.8% 15.9%
Kalbe Farma KLBF IJ NEUTRAL 3,650 4,100 4,137 23.0 20.3 5.98 5.18 25.2% 25.6% 25.1%
Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI IJ OUTPERFORM 5,800 6,400 1,075 29.8 23.5 5.47 4.55 20.3% 21.3% 21.7%
Modern Internasional MDRN IJ OUTPERFORM 3,275 4,300 234 68.5 36.8 4.98 4.55 7.5% 12.9% 20.4%
Mayora Indah MYOR IJ Outperform 14,550 22,000 1,245 28.3 15.6 4.88 3.84 18.4% 27.5% 27.9%
Ramayana Lestari RALS IJ OUTPERFORM 770.0 920.0 610 13.5 10.7 1.88 1.70 14.4% 16.6% 16.5%
Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJ TRADING BUY 21,300 20,300 18,138 40.1 36.1 34.51 34.51 90.0% 95.7% 109.7%
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Sector average 21.3 18.5 5.50 4.74 28.1% 27.4% 27.4%
 Sector & stock picks
Price Target Price Market Cap Core P/E (x) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE (%)
Company Bloomberg Ticker Recom.
(local curr) (local curr) (US$ m) CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013
Construction & Toll roads
Adhi Karya ADHI IJ OUTPERFORM 670.0 1,200 135 7.0 6.5 1.23 1.08 18.5% 17.8% 22.0%
Jasa Marga JSMR IJ Outperform 4,225 5,500 3,206 19.8 18.9 3.38 3.15 18.0% 17.1% 20.4%
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP IJ OUTPERFORM 590.0 700.0 319 12.0 9.3 2.00 1.72 18.2% 21.3% 21.3%
Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ Outperform 355.0 440.0 135 10.5 9.4 1.94 1.77 19.0% 19.7% 19.0%
Wijaya Karya WIKA IJ OUTPERFORM 660.0 850.0 444 12.4 9.8 1.92 1.67 13.8% 15.4% 16.8%
Sector average 16.6 15.1 2.79 2.55 17.5% 17.4% 20.0%

Industrial Machinery
Hexindo Adiperkasa HEXA IJ OUTPERFORM 9,150 11,300 858 15.7 11.3 5.17 3.87 37.5% 39.3% 36.8%
United Tractors UNTR IJ OUTPERFORM 28,500 33,625 11,865 18.8 14.4 4.20 3.45 26.2% 26.3% 27.8%
Sector average 18.8 14.4 4.20 3.45 26.2% 26.3% 27.8%

Media
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN IJ Neutral 1,370 1,400 2,117 16.9 14.5 3.51 3.11 22.2% 22.2% 22.2%
Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ OUTPERFORM 8,900 9,500 1,921 19.1 16.4 11.54 11.63 60.5% 70.8% 78.2%
Sector average 17.9 15.4 5.26 4.78 30.9% 32.2% 32.7%

Metal Mining
Aneka Tambang - Indonesia ANTM IJ UNDERPERFORM 1,760 1,730 1,874 8.7 13.3 1.56 1.49 18.9% 11.5% 13.7%
Vale Indonesia INCO IJ UNDERPERFORM 3,700 3,025 4,103 10.8 16.3 2.42 2.28 22.5% 14.5% 20.4%
Timah TINS IJ NEUTRAL 1,780 2,025 1,000 9.1 11.3 1.92 1.80 22.2% 16.5% 16.7%
Sector average 9.9 14.5 2.05 1.94 21.3% 13.7% 17.5%

Oil and Gas

AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ UNDERPERFORM 3,350 2,800 1,429 26.4 21.4 3.23 2.92 15.5% 14.5% 14.4%
Sector average 26.4 21.4 3.23 2.92 15.5% 14.5% 14.4%

Plantations
Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ UNDERPERFORM 21,700 17,600 3,814 12.6 17.9 4.29 3.96 36.1% 23.0% 25.7%
BW Plantation BWPT IJ NEUTRAL 1,230 1,500 555 16.3 19.7 3.52 3.05 23.6% 17.0% 20.2%
London Sumatra LSIP IJ UNDERPERFORM 2,475 2,450 1,885 9.8 12.5 2.93 2.70 32.6% 23.0% 24.8%
Sampoerna Agro SGRO IJ UNDERPERFORM 3,150 2,900 664 10.1 13.0 2.27 2.01 24.6% 16.5% 16.8%
Salim Invomas Pratama SIMP IJ OUTPERFORM 1,210 1,485 2,136 10.2 11.3 1.41 1.45 16.9% 13.3% 14.1%
Sector average 11.3 14.3 2.65 2.48 26.6% 18.2% 19.7%

Property
Alam Sutera ASRI IJ OUTPERFORM 475.0 610.0 947 14.8 10.7 3.45 2.59 23.6% 27.6% 34.0%
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ OUTPERFORM 1,030 1,200 2,011 23.5 16.4 2.62 2.29 11.8% 14.9% 16.8%
Ciputra Development CTRA IJ OUTPERFORM 570.0 700.0 965 25.8 16.8 1.68 1.56 6.7% 9.6% 12.5%
Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ Neutral 680.0 700.0 1,751 24.9 21.4 1.72 1.62 7.5% 7.8% 8.2%
Summarecon Agung SMRA IJ NEUTRAL 1,250 1,410 959 25.3 24.1 3.56 3.22 14.9% 14.1% 18.2%
Sector average 22.5 16.9 2.29 2.05 10.7% 12.8% 15.7%

Telco
Indosat ISAT IJ OUTPERFORM 5,500 6,800 3,336 24.4 15.7 1.64 1.56 7.0% 10.2% 11.8%
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM IJ NEUTRAL 6,950 7,800 15,638 11.7 10.9 2.90 2.67 25.9% 25.4% 24.6%
XL Axiata EXCL IJ Neutral 4,975 5,400 4,730 13.0 12.3 3.02 2.59 26.1% 22.7% 21.5%
Sector average 12.9 11.7 2.64 2.41 21.5% 21.6% 21.3%

Shipping
Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS IJ OUTPERFORM 330.0 560.0 131 9.7 6.9 0.98 0.86 10.7% 13.3% 13.9%
Sector average 9.7 6.9 0.98 0.86 10.7% 13.3% 13.9%

Steel
Krakatau Steel KRAS IJ NEUTRAL 890.0 925.0 1,567 30.2 17.6 1.37 1.31 4.7% 7.6% 10.5%
Sector average 30.2 17.6 1.37 1.31 4.7% 7.6% 10.5%

Utilities
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS IJ NEUTRAL 3,450 3,775 9,334 12.9 17.2 5.37 4.65 45.4% 29.0% 29.8% 22
Sector average 12.9 17.2 5.37 4.65 45.4% 29.0% 29.8%
 Conclusion
• Menggunakan koreksi sebagai kesempatan untuk membeli equity Indonesia,
mempertimbangkan :
• Kondisi eksternal

• Earning results untuk menjustifikasi valuasi

• Potensi dividend dan window dressing

• Data ekonomi dalam negeri

• Investor akan tetap tertarik dengan “structural growth”, re-rating prospects dari
Indonesia, serta “yield differentials” terhadap assets diluar negeri.
• Market sepertinya sudah priced-in berita kenaikan harga BBM

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Conclusion

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 Disclaimer
Important Notice

The views and opinions expressed by the speaker do not necessarily reflect those of PT
CIMB Securities Indonesia. The presentation by the speaker is for information purposes
only and does not constitute investment advice. You should consult your trading
representative before making any financial decisions.

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