IIASA Emissions Impacts

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Emissions of Air Pollutants

for the World Energy Outlook
2010 Energy Scenarios
Final Report
Janusz Cofala, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schöpp,

Zbigniew Klimont, Jens Borken-Kleefeld and Markus Amann
Submitted to the
International Energy Agency, Paris, France
under Contract for Services between IEA and IIASA
(signed on 5 March 2010)
IIASA Contract No. 10-112
September 2010
This paper reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and has received only
limited review. Views or opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily represent those of the Institute,
its National Member Organizations, or other organizations sponsoring the work.
ii
Glossary of terms used in this report
CLRTAP UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

CO2 Carbon dioxide
GAINS Greenhouse gas - Air pollution INteractions and Synergies model
IEA International Energy Agency
IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
NEC National Emission Ceilings Directive
NOx Nitrogen oxides
PM2.5 Fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 µm
RAINS Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation model
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
SNAP Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollutants; Sector aggregation used in the CORINAIR
emission inventory system
SO2 Sulphur dioxide
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
WEM World Energy Model
WHO World Health Organization
YOLL Years of life lost attributable to the PM2.5 exposure from anthropogenic sources
iii
iv
Table of Contents
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………………… - vii -
1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. - 1 -
2 Activity projections .................................................................................................................... - 2 -
3 Emission projections ................................................................................................................... - 3 -
3.1 Assumptions about emission control policies .................................................................... - 3 -
3.2 Current Policies Scenario ................................................................................................... - 4 -
3.3 New Policies Scenario ..................................................................................................... - 14 -
3.4 450 Scenario..................................................................................................................... - 24 -
3.5 Comparison of emissions ................................................................................................. - 34 -
4 Air pollution control costs ........................................................................................................ - 36 -
5 Health impacts .......................................................................................................................... - 43 -
6 Summary and conclusions ........................................................................................................ - 45 -
Appendix 1: Breakdown of world regions
v
vi
Abstract
This report examines global emissions of major air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM2.5) resulting from
energy scenarios developed for the World Energy Outlook 2010 (OECD/IEA, 2010). Estimates
include emissions for 25 regions according to the aggregation used in the IEA World Energy Model
(WEM). Emissions have been estimated using the IIASA GAINS model.
The 2010 Outlook discusses three energy pathways for the next 30 years. The Current Policies
Scenario reflects all policies currently enforced (as of mid-2010), but no new policies after the present.
The 450 Scenario assumes - up to 2020 – implementation of the Copenhagen Accord in its most
ambitious form. It also assumes that all fossil fuel subsidies are phased out. After 2020 the 450
Scenario assumes that policies are implemented to achieve emissions cuts compatible with long-term
temperature increases of no more than 2o C. The last scenario considered is the so-called New Policies
Scenario, which simulates implementation of the less ambitious end of the Copenhagen Accord
pledges, and planned fossil fuel subsidy removal. These pathways were implemented into the GAINS
model. Next, emissions of air pollutants were calculated. Calculations take into account the current air
pollution control legislation and policies in each country or region as adopted or in the pipeline by
mid-2010. Presented in this report estimates do not include emissions from international shipping as
well as cruising emissions from aviation. They also do not include emissions from biomass burning
(deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires).
In 2005, world emissions of SO2 from sources covered in this report were about 96 million tons.
OECD countries contributed 29 percent of this total. Implementation of pollution controls for the
Current Policies Scenario causes an 11 percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 in 2020 compared
with 2005. This is a combined result of more than halving of emissions from OECD countries,
increase in China and India, and a decrease in Russia, South Africa, and Middle East. After 2020
emissions from the non-OECD countries start to rise, which causes an increase of world emissions by
about five million tons until 2035. The corresponding world emissions of NOx are: 86 million tons in
2005 (of which 43 percent originated from the OECD countries), 11 percent decrease until 2020 and
next increase until 2035 by about 15 million tons. Emissions of PM2.5 (38.2 million tons in 2005) are
dominated by the sources from non-OECD countries – 90 percent of total. In the period 2020 to 2035
the world emissions are by up to seven percent higher, which is again due to the increase of emissions
from the non-OECD countries.
The 450 Scenario causes an important reduction in emissions of air pollutants. In 2035 the emissions
of SO2 are one third lower than in the Current Policies case. Emissions of NOx decrease by 27 percent
and those of PM2.5 by eight percent. However, the emissions of PM2.5 in the OECD countries
increase by 19 percent, which is due to the growth in use of biomass as household fuel. Emissions for
the “New Policies” scenario lie between those for the Current Policies and the 450 scenarios.
Costs of the air pollution controls were in 2005 about 157 billion €/a1. Until 2035 these costs increase
in the Current Policies Scenario by a factor of three, which is due to higher activity levels and
increasing stringency of controls. In 2035, 64 percent of the total control costs are the expenditures on
1
All costs are calculated in € 2005 using international prices of pollution control equipment and four percent real
interest rate.
vii
reducing emissions from road transport. The 450 Scenario brings 23 percent cost savings in 2035
compared with the Current Policies case.
The Study also estimated health impacts of air pollution in Europe, China and India in terms of life
years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5. PM
concentrations as in 2005 cause a loss of about 1.9 billion life-years2. This estimate is dominated by
impacts in China and India. The Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator
in 2035 by about 70 percent to 3.2 billion. Decrease of PM concentrations as in the 450 Scenario in
2035 saves more than seven hundred million life-years.
Lower impact indicators and lower air pollution control costs in the scenarios with more active climate
policies, and in particular in the 450 Scenario, clearly demonstrate important co-benefits of climate
measures for air pollution.
2
The estimates do not include exposure to indoor air pollution.
viii
1 Introduction
This report describes the work executed by IIASA based on a contract with the International Energy
Agency (IEA) to provide a set of emission trends that correspond to the World Energy Model analysis
developed by the IEA for the World Energy Outlook 2010 (OECD/IEA, 2010). IIASA calculated
emissions of major air pollutants: SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 for three energy scenarios, namely:
 The Current Policies Scenario
 The New Policies Scenario and
 The 450 Scenario.
A short characterization of these scenarios is included in section 2. The analysis employs as the central
analytical tool the IIASA GAINS model. Methodology for air pollution calculations within GAINS is
described in Amann, 2004. Estimates include emissions for 25 regions according to the aggregation
used in the IEA World Energy Model. The national assessment does not cover the emissions from
international shipping as well as cruising emissions from aviation. Also emissions from biomass
burning (deforestation, savannah burning, and vegetation fires) are not included in national totals.
The remainder of this report is organized as follows: Section 2 summarizes activity scenarios included
in the analysis. It also explains assumptions about emission control legislation for individual
countries/country groups. Section 3 presents emission projections by country group, economic sector
and by fuel. In Section 4 emission control costs are shown. Section 5 discusses health impacts of the
scenarios. Conclusions are drawn in Section 6.
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2 Activity projections
The 2010 World Energy Outlook discusses three energy pathways for the next 25 years. The Current
Policies Scenario reflects all policies currently enforced (i.e., as of mid-2010), but no new policies
after the present. The 450 Scenario assumes - up to 2020 – implementation of the Copenhagen Accord
in its most ambitious form. It also assumes that all fossil fuel subsidies are phased out. After 2020 the
450 Scenario assumes that policies are implemented to achieve emissions cuts compatible with long-
term temperature increases of no more than 2o C. The last scenario considered is the so-called New
Policies Scenario, which simulates implementation of the less ambitious end of the Copenhagen
Accord pledges, and planned fossil fuel subsidy removal.
All three scenarios were developed with the World Energy Model (WEM) and include 25 world
regions. Regions are either individual countries or groups of countries with similar policies and
emission characteristics. Countries that are major energy consumers (and CO2 emitters) are treated on
an individual basis. Coverage of each region is explained in Appendix 1. The scenarios provide details
for the period up to 2035 with focus on 2020, which is essential for the decisions about the mid-term
development of the world energy system and the climate-negotiations process.
The Current Policies Scenario reflects unchanged governmental energy and climate policies. This
scenario is unsustainable and puts the globe on a path to double the CO2 concentrations, which might
result in an increase of global average temperature by up to 6o C with all negative impacts of such an
increase. The alternative scenarios assume implementation of measures to curb down the emissions of
energy-related emissions of CO2. Details on energy consumption structure for the WEO 2010 energy
scenarios, together with major macroeconomic characteristics (population, GDP and value added by
major economic sector) have been provided to IIASA by the IEA. Next, they have been implemented
into GAINS using a special interface routine. Missing information has been completed based on
scenarios already available in GAINS. In particular, this included development of national energy
scenarios for countries that are aggregated into a country group within the WEM, derivation of sector-
specific data for transport (vehicle-kilometres, vehicle numbers) and estimation of activities causing
process emissions (production of energy-intensive products, agricultural activities, storage and
handling of materials, waste treatment, etc.). Projections of activities for process sector have been
developed in collaboration with national experts. They remain the same for all three scenarios. This
means, that for all countries no changes in production structure of energy-intensive commodities and
no shift from OECD countries to the developing world was assumed.
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3 Emission projections
3.1 Assumptions about emission control policies

Calculation of emissions of air pollutants has been performed assuming in each country the current air
pollution control policies, i.e., policies that were in force or in the final stage of legislative process as
of mid-2010. In particular, for Europe all emission limit values and fuel quality standards have been
included, as used in the analysis for the revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive -
Amann et al., 2008. For other countries policies have been assessed based on available literature
(compare Cofala et al., 2007). They take into account recent updates done in collaboration with
national expert teams (Klimont, 2009). In addition, assumptions about emission controls in the power
plant sector have been cross-checked with detailed information from the database on world coal fired
power plants (IEA CCC, 2010). Important role in air pollution abatement is played by controlling
emissions from mobile sources. Again, for Europe the same assumptions have been made as for the
modelling work for the revision of the NEC Directive. For other countries information from DieselNet,
2010 and national sources was used.
Compared with WEO 2009, IIASA has updated emission estimates for 2005 for Europe based on a
review organized within the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-range
Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) and the revision of the EU National Emission Ceilings
Directive3. For other countries Emission factors and control legislation for other countries were
updated based on literature sources and submissions of national experts who collaborate with IIASA.
Updates were also done in result of IIASA’s participation in the development of the database on the
IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways4, as well as work on global black and organic carbon
assessment for the UNEP (report in preparation). For Europe IIASA has updated the whole modelling
framework within the LIFE EC4MACS Project (Amann et al., 2010). Also new assumptions on
adoption of emission limit values for large combustion plants and limits of sulphur content in liquid
fuels were adopted for countries that have joined the European Energy Community5.
Countries - members of the CLRTAP submit annually emission inventories to Convention authorities.
They also revise historic data on a regular basis. Newer submissions for historic years differ in some
cases from the old ones even by five to ten percent. This is the reason why historic emissions for some
countries differ from the WEO 2009 assessment. The update of input data to GAINS also included a
revision of emission factors for diesel cars and trucks, for which emissions in real operating conditions
importantly differ from emission factors derived from test cycles. This revision was based on results of
research projects like ARTEMIS and HBEFA. Data used by IIASA were provided by the COPERT 4
(v7.1) model6.
3
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-revision
4
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome
5
http://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOME
6
http://lat.eng.auth.gr/copert/files/COPERT4_v7_1.pdf
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3.2 Current Policies Scenario
Emissions of SO2, NOx and PM2.5 by country group up to 2035 for the Current Policies Scenario are
presented in Table 3.1 to Table 3.3. Emissions by SNAP sector, separated by OECD and non-OECD
countries, can be found in Table 3.4 to Table 3.6. Values for 2008 have been derived through
interpolation.
In 2005, world emissions of SO2 were about 96 million tons. OECD countries contributed 29 percent
to this total. Dominating sources are power plants and industrial emissions. Implementation of air
pollution controls and structural changes in energy consumption patterns as in the Current Policies
Scenario causes an 11 percent decrease in world emissions of SO2 emissions in 2020 compared with
2005. This is a combined effect of the decrease of emissions from the OECD region (minus 53
percent) and six percent increase from the rest of the world. Growth of emissions in non-OECD
countries in the period 2005 – 2020 is limited to only six percent because of implementation of
emission control measures according to the “current legislation” assumptions. However, after 2020 the
emissions in non-OECD countries increase and are in 2035 six million tons higher than in 2020. This
is mainly due to higher coal consumption in poorly controlled power plants in the developing world,
and in particular in Southeast Asia.
According to the GAINS assessment, world emissions of NOx were about 86 million tons in 2005, of
which 43 percent originated from the OECD countries. Road transport was responsible for about 35
percent of NOx emissions. Until 2020 the emissions decrease by 11 percent, due to more than 50
percent decrease of emissions form the OECD countries and a 17 percent increase from the rest of the
world. It needs to be stressed that majority of non-OECD countries are currently implementing
emission standards on road transport sources, which importantly slows down the pace of increase of
NOx emissions. After 2020 the world emissions increase, and are about 15 million tons higher in 2035
than in 2020.
Emissions of PM2.5 (38.2 million tons in 2005) are dominated by the sources from non-OECD
countries – 90 percent of total. On a global scale, the highest contributors are residential and
commercial combustion (45 percent of total) and industrial emissions (both: combustion-related and
process emissions - 27 percent). In 2020 and 2035 the world emissions are higher – by five and seven
percent, respectively. This relatively low increase of emissions - in spite of high increase in total
energy consumption - is due to the changes in fuel use patterns and better controls on sources in the
power plant sector, industry, and road transport.
Table 3.7 to Table 3.9 demonstrate emissions by country group and by fuel. Coal was responsible for
about 60 percent of world emissions of SO2 in 2005. Other important contributors were: oil use and the
process (other sources) sector - 20 and 18 percent, respectively. Whereas in the OECD countries the
emissions from coal decrease due to stringent emission limit values, the coal-related SO2 emissions for
the non-OECD countries increase up to 2035 by nearly 10 million tons. In case of NOx, oil contributed
54 percent to world emissions in 2005, followed by coal (22 percent) and gas (11 percent). In the
projection period the emissions from oil decrease, mainly due to better controls on transport sources.
Emissions from other fuels, in particular from coal, increase. PM2.5 emissions are dominated by
biomass fuels (41 percent) and process sources (40 percent of world emissions in 2005). The increase
of PM2.5 emissions for the projection period is mainly caused by higher coal use in non-OECD
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countries. Characteristic are also small changes over time in the emissions from biomass and
processes.
Table 3.1: Emissions of SO2 by country group7 in the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 13,793 9,985 7,749 5,633 4,498 3,893 3,765 3,721
Canada 2,187 1,965 1,819 1,631 1,594 1,579 1,566 1,557
Mexico 1,794 1,166 724 554 538 486 464 457
Japan 753 637 547 541 526 521 520 517
Korea 555 542 527 538 522 502 488 475
AUNZ 1,438 1,481 1,428 1,408 1,408 1,417 1,422 1,403
OE4 1,194 1,439 1,436 1,381 1,510 1,627 1,698 1,747
EUG4 2,005 1,537 1,240 1,167 1,058 919 877 866
EUO15 3,931 2,661 1,726 1,508 1,324 1,280 1,238 1,196
EU8 1,903 1,353 875 344 332 322 322 318
ETEnonEU 2,214 2,426 2,064 2,204 1,431 1,399 1,548 1,559
Russia 6,268 6,309 5,866 4,992 4,200 4,413 4,616 4,838
Caspian 2,417 2,565 2,724 3,001 3,220 3,333 3,396 3,440
RATE 45 38 32 35 37 32 26 27
China 31,567 34,606 34,757 36,816 35,182 32,251 30,088 31,551
India 5,908 7,396 7,857 9,542 11,301 12,944 14,887 17,399
Indonesia 1,077 1,066 1,078 1,061 1,145 1,239 1,339 1,447
ASEAN9 1,702 1,503 1,434 1,412 1,502 1,608 1,767 1,964
ODA 1,878 1,953 2,073 2,386 2,956 3,382 3,998 4,156
Brazil 1,069 1,136 1,155 1,230 1,245 1,289 1,357 1,396
OLAM 2,319 2,508 2,440 2,346 2,164 2,241 2,302 2,314
NAFR 1,030 1,018 941 768 757 782 946 1,098
South Africa 2,122 1,980 1,775 1,443 1,188 1,079 986 998
OAFR 1,657 2,002 2,147 1,682 1,495 1,469 1,460 1,488
ME 4,742 4,559 4,323 4,176 3,965 3,776 3,932 4,091
OECD 27,650 21,412 17,194 14,360 12,977 12,223 12,038 11,939
Non-OECD 67,918 72,418 71,542 73,438 72,119 71,559 72,970 78,085
World 95,569 93,830 88,736 87,797 85,096 83,782 85,007 90,024
7
Aggregation of countries to the WEO 2010 groups is explained in Appendix 1
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Table 3.2: Emissions of NOx by country group in the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 17,203 14,379 12,370 9,336 7,637 6,711 6,407 6,568
Canada 1,586 1,398 1,279 1,105 993 944 958 993
Mexico 1,447 1,398 1,270 1,130 1,080 1,136 1,230 1,328
Japan 2,289 1,899 1,540 1,238 977 832 787 773
Korea 1,439 1,369 1,291 1,185 980 879 811 789
AUNZ 1,304 1,289 1,194 1,076 987 969 966 991
OE4 1,015 1,135 1,058 1,007 1,016 1,047 1,123 1,166
EUG4 5,367 4,690 4,229 3,553 2,754 2,405 2,265 2,274
EUO15 4,991 4,247 3,496 2,977 2,401 2,090 1,948 1,992
EU8 696 599 506 438 374 339 324 330
ETEnonEU 1,470 1,433 1,290 1,193 1,054 1,025 1,077 1,115
Russia 5,047 4,938 4,524 4,063 3,593 3,307 3,326 3,526
Caspian 1,134 1,321 1,371 1,565 1,691 1,902 2,033 2,169
RATE 68 76 77 93 105 113 116 131
China 15,770 18,923 20,358 22,175 22,315 22,784 23,947 26,548
India 3,946 4,518 4,635 5,142 6,215 7,550 9,333 12,198
Indonesia 1,710 1,705 1,733 1,651 1,606 1,756 1,987 2,208
ASEAN9 2,930 2,834 2,724 2,750 2,945 3,217 3,624 4,058
ODA 1,837 1,853 1,888 2,094 2,321 2,640 3,052 3,480
Brazil 2,353 2,445 2,450 2,604 2,630 2,628 2,828 3,051
OLAM 3,310 3,487 3,364 3,303 3,067 3,214 3,474 3,660
NAFR 1,378 1,460 1,479 1,485 1,573 1,684 1,864 1,985
South Africa 1,284 1,300 1,229 1,157 1,071 1,098 1,158 1,249
OAFR 1,775 1,865 1,915 1,970 1,986 2,085 2,179 2,346
ME 4,183 4,261 4,124 4,416 4,641 5,018 5,589 5,937
OECD 36,641 31,803 27,727 22,607 18,825 17,012 16,496 16,874
Non-OECD 48,892 53,017 53,668 56,098 57,186 60,358 65,911 73,992
World 85,533 84,820 81,395 78,705 76,011 77,370 82,407 90,866
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Table 3.3: Emissions of PM2.5 by country group in the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 1,111 990 920 850 797 759 749 790
Canada 161 145 137 128 119 113 112 115
Mexico 449 431 406 393 394 404 417 429
Japan 195 169 149 138 126 119 116 115
Korea 177 174 170 169 164 161 159 158
AUNZ 181 180 171 167 161 155 155 158
OE4 348 416 420 432 457 493 510 513
EUG4 643 597 557 501 466 443 451 464
EUO15 703 656 581 534 507 491 494 508
EU8 263 247 219 214 211 210 209 212
ETEnonEU 573 638 552 561 526 537 603 610
Russia 1,332 1,372 1,303 1,358 1,341 1,361 1,390 1,419
Caspian 178 183 190 208 226 240 253 259
RATE 27 28 30 35 40 41 21 21
China 12,463 13,883 14,265 13,437 12,370 11,586 10,923 11,020
India 5,066 5,488 5,437 5,629 5,854 6,091 6,352 6,753
Indonesia 1,424 1,443 1,485 1,505 1,533 1,559 1,575 1,603
ASEAN9 1,814 1,800 1,852 1,893 1,913 1,901 1,901 1,947
ODA 2,087 2,106 2,166 2,340 2,492 2,696 2,887 2,983
Brazil 916 952 923 935 948 910 869 873
OLAM 1,269 1,310 1,251 1,251 1,243 1,239 1,254 1,258
NAFR 481 519 516 522 531 494 464 473
South Africa 379 405 404 410 410 400 391 390
OAFR 5,252 5,724 5,850 6,198 6,505 6,736 6,897 6,984
ME 721 756 770 800 817 761 716 729
OECD 3,968 3,759 3,511 3,312 3,191 3,138 3,164 3,249
Non-OECD 34,247 36,855 37,211 37,295 36,961 36,763 36,704 37,536
World 38,215 40,614 40,722 40,607 40,152 39,901 39,867 40,785
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Table 3.4: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1: Power generation 17,624 10,902 8,755 6,170 4,830 4,125 3,938 3,916
2: Domestic 1,377 1,272 1,021 961 916 873 823 781
3: Industrial combust. 3,650 3,957 3,177 3,197 3,200 3,199 3,205 3,157
4: Industrial processes 4,008 4,669 3,749 3,608 3,609 3,673 3,718 3,718
5: Fuel extraction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 295 63 50 35 31 31 30 33
8: Off-road sources 653 492 395 342 345 279 278 290
9: Waste management 20 29 23 23 22 21 21 21
10: Agriculture 23 29 23 23 23 22 24 24
Sum 27,650 21,412 17,194 14,360 12,977 12,223 12,038 11,939
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 4,437 4,983 4,923 5,116 5,107 4,982 4,829 4,667
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 892 424 419 358 349 426 513 636
8: Off-road sources 1,014 964 952 1,048 1,115 1,165 1,237 1,431
10: Agriculture 133 143 141 149 155 162 170 170
Sum 67,918 72,418 71,542 73,438 72,119 71,559 72,970 78,085
World
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 5,813 6,255 5,944 6,078 6,023 5,855 5,652 5,448
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 1,188 487 469 393 380 457 544 669
8: Off-road sources 1,667 1,455 1,347 1,390 1,459 1,444 1,516 1,721
10: Agriculture 156 172 164 172 178 184 194 194
Sum 95,569 93,830 88,736 87,797 85,096 83,782 85,007 90,024
-8-
Table 3.5: Emissions of NOx by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 1,977 2,104 1,835 1,834 1,853 1,888 1,925 1,963
4: Industrial processes 1,004 1,095 955 935 928 914 896 896
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 14,908 11,215 9,778 6,095 3,687 2,622 2,382 2,609
8: Off-road sources 5,244 5,363 4,676 4,222 3,646 3,099 2,806 2,888
10: Agriculture 57 65 56 56 54 52 55 55
Sum 36,641 31,803 27,727 22,607 18,825 17,012 16,496 16,874
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 2,953 3,221 3,261 3,401 3,479 3,525 3,543 3,553
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 14,739 13,787 13,956 12,860 12,171 12,883 14,731 17,663
8: Off-road sources 7,298 8,024 8,123 8,634 8,833 9,462 10,588 12,918
10: Agriculture 207 220 223 239 252 266 283 283
Sum 48,892 53,017 53,668 56,098 57,186 60,358 65,911 73,992
World
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 4,931 5,326 5,096 5,236 5,332 5,412 5,468 5,516
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 29,647 25,002 23,734 18,956 15,858 15,504 17,112 20,272
8: Off-road sources 12,541 13,388 12,799 12,856 12,479 12,561 13,394 15,806
10: Agriculture 263 285 279 294 306 318 338 338
Sum 85,533 84,820 81,395 78,705 76,011 77,370 82,407 90,866
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Table 3.6: Emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1: Power generation 288 214 200 191 198 206 207 206
2: Domestic 1,103 1,142 1,067 1,049 1,029 1,019 1,026 1,082
3: Industrial combust. 360 328 306 314 313 327 340 341
4: Industrial processes 475 467 436 443 456 468 477 477
5: Fuel extraction 16 18 16 17 17 18 18 18
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 608 455 425 296 233 214 219 241
8: Off-road sources 428 394 368 312 257 210 189 196
10: Agriculture 381 405 378 378 376 368 386 386
Sum 3,968 3,759 3,511 3,312 3,191 3,138 3,164 3,249
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 15,864 16,697 16,858 17,018 16,851 16,491 15,952 15,719
5: Fuel extraction 56 67 68 73 77 86 95 95
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 980 828 836 676 627 683 793 984
8: Off-road sources 683 714 721 737 709 745 837 1,001
9: Waste management 2,127 2,088 2,108 2,145 2,161 2,150 2,129 2,129
10: Agriculture 3,049 3,161 3,192 3,330 3,453 3,576 3,701 3,701
Sum 34,247 36,855 37,211 37,295 36,961 36,763 36,704 37,536
World
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 16,967 17,839 17,925 18,066 17,880 17,511 16,978 16,801
5: Fuel extraction 72 85 84 89 94 104 114 114
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 1,588 1,283 1,261 971 860 897 1,012 1,225
8: Off-road sources 1,111 1,108 1,089 1,049 966 955 1,026 1,196
9: Waste management 2,435 2,424 2,422 2,459 2,472 2,458 2,432 2,432
10: Agriculture 3,430 3,566 3,570 3,708 3,830 3,945 4,087 4,087
Sum 38,215 40,614 40,722 40,607 40,152 39,901 39,867 40,785
- 10 -
Table 3.7: Emissions of SO2 by fuel for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 16,464 9,292 6,902 5,577 4,853 4,591 4,458

Oil 6,289 3,309 2,931 2,799 2,616 2,547 2,512
Gas 38 35 38 39 40 41 42
Biomass 330 349 406 463 524 591 659
Other sources 4,529 4,209 4,083 4,099 4,190 4,267 4,267
Total 27,650 17,194 14,360 12,977 12,223 12,038 11,939
Non-OECD
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 40,526 42,795 46,177 45,831 44,999 45,703 50,180

Oil 13,003 12,553 12,593 12,655 12,585 12,787 13,074
Gas 181 223 274 321 372 436 503
Biomass 1,767 1,843 1,923 1,989 2,102 2,296 2,581
Other sources 12,442 14,128 12,471 11,323 11,501 11,748 11,748
Total 67,918 71,542 73,438 72,119 71,559 72,970 78,085
World
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 56,991 52,087 53,078 51,407 49,853 50,295 54,638

Oil 19,292 15,863 15,523 15,455 15,201 15,333 15,586
Gas 219 258 312 360 412 477 545
Biomass 2,097 2,191 2,329 2,452 2,625 2,887 3,240
Other sources 16,970 18,337 16,555 15,422 15,691 16,015 16,015
Total 95,569 88,736 87,797 85,096 83,782 85,007 90,024
- 11 -
Table 3.8: Emissions of NOx by fuel for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 6,816 4,628 3,606 2,835 2,559 2,406 2,309

Oil 22,112 15,903 11,676 8,592 6,891 6,303 6,578
Gas 4,592 4,248 4,241 4,194 4,222 4,285 4,372
Biomass 751 775 905 985 1,069 1,166 1,278
Other sources 2,370 2,173 2,179 2,218 2,272 2,336 2,336
Total 36,641 27,727 22,607 18,825 17,012 16,496 16,874
Non-OECD
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 11,993 15,351 17,791 19,104 20,263 21,891 24,030

Oil 24,053 24,060 23,604 23,152 24,474 27,405 32,646
Gas 4,655 4,573 4,684 4,662 4,943 5,438 6,015
Biomass 2,365 2,610 2,750 2,852 2,936 3,033 3,157
Other sources 5,825 7,074 7,269 7,415 7,742 8,144 8,144
Total 48,892 53,668 56,098 57,186 60,358 65,911 73,992
World
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 18,809 19,979 21,397 21,940 22,822 24,297 26,339

Oil 46,165 39,963 35,280 31,744 31,364 33,708 39,224
Gas 9,247 8,821 8,925 8,857 9,165 9,723 10,387
Biomass 3,116 3,384 3,655 3,837 4,005 4,199 4,436
Other sources 8,195 9,248 9,448 9,633 10,014 10,480 10,480
Total 85,533 81,395 78,705 76,011 77,370 82,407 90,866
- 12 -
Table 3.9: Emissions of PM2.5 by fuel for the Current Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 418 412 402 401 390 379 369

Oil 957 697 498 364 285 256 266
Gas 28 21 22 23 25 27 30
Biomass 986 881 872 865 874 893 959
Other sources 1,578 1,501 1,518 1,537 1,564 1,609 1,626
Total 3,968 3,511 3,312 3,191 3,138 3,163 3,249
0 0
Non-OECD
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 4,098 4,917 5,604 5,966 6,360 6,863 7,486

Oil 1,671 1,545 1,387 1,293 1,363 1,536 1,848
Gas 59 67 76 85 95 106 118
Biomass 14,800 15,708 15,784 15,595 15,146 14,551 14,395
Other sources 13,619 14,974 14,443 14,021 13,799 13,648 13,690
Total 34,247 37,211 37,295 36,961 36,763 36,704 37,536
World
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 4,516 5,329 6,006 6,368 6,750 7,242 7,855

Oil 2,628 2,242 1,884 1,658 1,648 1,792 2,114
Gas 87 88 99 108 120 133 148
Biomass 15,786 16,589 16,656 16,460 16,021 15,444 15,353
Other sources 15,198 16,475 15,961 15,558 15,363 15,256 15,316
Total 38,215 40,722 40,607 40,152 39,901 39,867 40,785
- 13 -
3.3 New Policies Scenario
Emissions for the New Policies Scenario by country group are shown in Table 3.10 to Table 3.12.
Emissions by SNAP sector are presented in Table 3.13 to Table 3.15. In this scenario not only energy-
related CO2 emissions are reduced but also emissions of air pollutants decrease. By 2035, the SO2
emissions are nearly 14 million tons (or 15 percent) lower than in the Current Policies Scenario.
Majority of that reduction (12 million tons) occurs in non-OECD countries. In case of NOx, the
emissions are 11 percent lower. In absolute terms this means 10 million tons of NOx less, of which 8.4
million tons is due to lower emissions from non-OECD countries. Emissions decrease up to 2020 is
lower because of shorter period available for implementation of structural measures in the world
energy system.
Also PM2.5 emissions decrease in the New Policies Scenario compared with the Current Policies case.
In 2035 they are 1.4 million tons (or 3.4 percent) lower. It is characteristic, that the PM2.5 emissions
from the OECD region are slightly higher (by 0.2 million tons) in this scenario, which is due to higher
use of biomass fuels in the residential sector. Emissions from the non-OECD countries decrease by 1.6
million tons.
Table 3.16 to Table 3.18 present the emissions by fuel, separately for the OECD and non-OECD
country group. Also in this scenario dominating sources of PM2.5 are combustion of biomass fuels
and process emissions.
- 14 -
Table 3.10: Emissions of SO2 by country group in the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 5,602 4,385 3,658 3,400 3,209
Canada 1,602 1,534 1,504 1,507 1,472
Mexico 552 534 470 430 408
Japan 543 525 509 497 482
Korea 534 510 480 456 432
AUNZ 1,364 1,307 1,303 1,295 1,255
OE4 1,373 1,386 1,394 1,424 1,312
EUG4 1,123 965 846 803 770
EUO15 1,499 1,286 1,207 1,151 1,081
EU8 338 312 305 302 296
ETEnonEU 2,141 1,316 1,288 1,388 1,319
Russia 4,954 4,068 4,157 4,312 4,626
Caspian 3,026 3,181 3,265 3,191 3,176
RATE 35 36 31 25 25
China 35,939 33,137 29,402 26,411 26,450
India 9,366 10,656 11,625 12,767 14,084
Indonesia 1,045 1,101 1,157 1,214 1,275
ASEAN9 1,358 1,434 1,504 1,617 1,756
ODA 2,233 2,779 3,006 3,353 3,228
Brazil 1,201 1,210 1,240 1,290 1,310
OLAM 2,296 2,058 2,073 2,089 2,061
NAFR 737 642 573 562 566
South Africa 1,413 1,155 1,039 934 925
OAFR 1,650 1,405 1,341 1,288 1,222
ME 4,116 3,795 3,458 3,456 3,524
OECD 14,193 12,432 11,370 10,964 10,421
Non-OECD 71,849 68,286 65,465 64,198 65,842
World 86,042 80,718 76,835 75,162 76,263
- 15 -
Table 3.11: Emissions of NOx by country group in the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 9,293 7,539 6,511 6,098 6,113
Canada 1,092 967 907 919 939
Mexico 1,126 1,070 1,102 1,159 1,218
Japan 1,228 956 795 731 696
Korea 1,169 938 797 689 606
AUNZ 1,047 917 881 859 856
OE4 1,000 995 1,009 1,068 1,088
EUG4 3,496 2,635 2,260 2,091 2,056
EUO15 2,971 2,344 1,981 1,812 1,803
EU8 433 359 319 298 299
ETEnonEU 1,178 1,024 990 1,031 1,047
Russia 4,045 3,549 3,212 3,155 3,258
Caspian 1,565 1,636 1,787 1,853 1,931
RATE 93 103 110 111 124
China 21,789 21,290 21,043 21,271 22,743
India 5,015 5,849 6,868 8,264 10,539
Indonesia 1,625 1,545 1,644 1,822 1,991
ASEAN9 2,683 2,842 3,067 3,399 3,752
ODA 2,037 2,200 2,447 2,770 3,095
Brazil 2,589 2,613 2,596 2,775 2,970
OLAM 3,271 2,997 3,077 3,249 3,327
NAFR 1,473 1,540 1,612 1,735 1,798
South Africa 1,138 1,042 1,054 1,094 1,151
OAFR 1,956 1,954 2,024 2,082 2,195
ME 4,339 4,472 4,694 5,076 5,382
OECD 22,422 18,361 16,241 15,426 15,373
Non-OECD 55,230 55,016 56,546 59,986 65,602
World 77,652 73,377 72,787 75,412 80,975
- 16 -
Table 3.12: Emissions of PM2.5 by country group in the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 871 855 854 892 1,009
Canada 128 121 116 119 129
Mexico 394 395 402 413 421
Japan 137 124 115 110 107
Korea 168 163 159 156 154
AUNZ 166 157 153 154 159
OE4 431 447 473 488 477
EUG4 502 471 455 475 504
EUO15 534 507 493 500 521
EU8 213 209 207 206 209
ETEnonEU 557 519 531 596 600
Russia 1,349 1,312 1,306 1,303 1,302
Caspian 206 221 232 236 243
RATE 35 41 43 21 21
China 13,372 12,159 11,219 10,341 10,205
India 5,600 5,764 5,917 6,074 6,334
Indonesia 1,505 1,531 1,556 1,570 1,600
ASEAN9 1,878 1,898 1,882 1,874 1,910
ODA 2,306 2,438 2,598 2,720 2,759
Brazil 935 952 917 876 888
OLAM 1,252 1,244 1,240 1,254 1,256
NAFR 521 530 491 459 467
South Africa 406 404 391 380 375
OAFR 6,200 6,512 6,746 6,908 6,994
ME 801 821 767 724 749
OECD 3,332 3,240 3,220 3,308 3,480
Non-OECD 37,136 36,554 36,043 35,542 35,913
World 40,467 39,794 39,263 38,851 39,394
- 17 -
Table 3.13: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1: Power generation 6,048 4,392 3,522 3,213 2,834
2: Domestic 952 897 837 788 742
3: Industrial combust. 3,165 3,122 2,998 2,910 2,784
4: Industrial processes 3,608 3,609 3,673 3,718 3,718
5: Fuel extraction 0 0 0 0 0
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 35 31 30 29 31
8: Off-road sources 339 336 267 261 267
9: Waste management 23 22 21 21 21
10: Agriculture 23 23 22 24 24
Sum 14,193 12,432 11,370 10,964 10,421
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035
2: Domestic 5,106 5,008 4,796 4,504 4,187
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 348 330 399 476 585
8: Off-road sources 1,038 1,090 1,122 1,173 1,337
10: Agriculture 149 155 162 170 170
Sum 71,849 68,286 65,465 64,198 65,842
World
SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035
2: Domestic 6,059 5,905 5,633 5,292 4,929
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 383 361 429 505 616
8: Off-road sources 1,377 1,426 1,389 1,434 1,604
10: Agriculture 172 178 184 194 194
Sum 86,042 80,718 76,835 75,162 76,263
- 18 -
Table 3.14: Emissions of NOx by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 1,823 1,835 1,860 1,895 1,926
4: Industrial processes 935 928 914 896 896
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 6,079 3,621 2,508 2,228 2,410
8: Off-road sources 4,187 3,559 2,946 2,594 2,600
10: Agriculture 56 54 52 55 55
Sum 22,422 18,361 16,241 15,426 15,373
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035
2: Domestic 3,388 3,439 3,453 3,428 3,393
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 12,651 11,795 12,242 13,772 16,416
8: Off-road sources 8,524 8,575 9,011 9,895 11,886
10: Agriculture 239 252 266 283 283
Sum 55,230 55,016 56,546 59,986 65,602
World
SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035
2: Domestic 5,211 5,274 5,314 5,324 5,320
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 18,730 15,416 14,750 15,999 18,827
8: Off-road sources 12,711 12,134 11,957 12,489 14,486
10: Agriculture 294 306 318 338 338
Sum 77,652 73,377 72,787 75,412 80,975
- 19 -
Table 3.15: emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1: Power generation 185 172 161 151 121
2: Domestic 1,076 1,112 1,162 1,251 1,431
3: Industrial combust. 314 314 327 339 340
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 295 230 206 206 225
8: Off-road sources 310 251 201 178 180
10: Agriculture 378 376 368 386 386
Sum 3,332 3,240 3,220 3,308 3,480
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035
2: Domestic 17,006 16,808 16,413 15,810 15,528
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 664 606 650 744 917
8: Off-road sources 727 686 705 776 913
9: Waste management 2,145 2,161 2,150 2,129 2,129
10: Agriculture 3,330 3,453 3,576 3,701 3,701
Sum 37,136 36,554 36,043 35,542 35,913
World
SNAP sector 2,015 2,020 2,025 2,030 2,035
2: Domestic 18,083 17,920 17,575 17,061 16,959
5: Fuel extraction 89 94 104 114 114
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 959 836 856 950 1,141
8: Off-road sources 1,036 936 906 954 1,093
10: Agriculture 3,708 3,830 3,945 4,087 4,087
Sum 40,467 39,794 39,263 38,851 39,394
- 20 -
Table 3.16: Emissions of SO2 by fuel for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 6,752 5,068 4,081 3,640 3,107

Oil 2,898 2,727 2,482 2,348 2,245
Gas 38 39 39 39 40
Biomass 422 499 579 669 762
Other sources 4,083 4,099 4,190 4,267 4,267
Total 14,193 12,432 11,370 10,964 10,421
Non-OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 44,866 42,392 39,455 37,371 38,226

Oil 12,293 12,192 11,805 11,765 11,710
Gas 274 319 362 421 470
Biomass 1,945 2,060 2,342 2,893 3,689
Other sources 12,471 11,323 11,501 11,748 11,748
Total 71,849 68,286 65,465 64,198 65,842
World
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 51,618 47,461 43,536 41,011 41,333

Oil 15,190 14,919 14,286 14,114 13,955
Gas 312 358 400 460 510
Biomass 2,367 2,559 2,921 3,563 4,451
Other sources 16,555 15,422 15,691 16,015 16,015
Total 86,042 80,718 76,835 75,162 76,263
- 21 -
Table 3.17: Emissions of NOX by fuel for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 3,505 2,547 2,120 1,812 1,465

Oil 11,603 8,399 6,551 5,834 5,952
Gas 4,205 4,144 4,117 4,112 4,116
Biomass 930 1,053 1,181 1,332 1,505
Other sources 2,179 2,218 2,272 2,336 2,336
Total 22,422 18,361 16,242 15,426 15,373
Non-OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 17,256 17,649 17,706 17,859 18,307

Oil 23,219 22,394 23,196 25,495 30,031
Gas 4,716 4,647 4,834 5,215 5,588
Biomass 2,770 2,910 3,067 3,273 3,532
Other sources 7,269 7,415 7,742 8,144 8,144
Total 55,230 55,016 56,546 59,986 65,602
World
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 20,761 20,195 19,826 19,672 19,772

Oil 34,822 30,793 29,748 31,329 35,983
Gas 8,921 8,792 8,952 9,327 9,704
Biomass 3,700 3,964 4,248 4,605 5,036
Other sources 9,448 9,633 10,014 10,480 10,480
Total 77,652 73,377 72,787 75,412 80,975
- 22 -
Table 3.18: Emissions of PM2.5 by fuel for the New Policies Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 395 371 337 312 271

Oil 494 355 271 237 240
Gas 22 23 25 28 31
Biomass 903 955 1,029 1,132 1,324
Other sources 1,518 1,535 1,558 1,599 1,613
Total 3,332 3,240 3,220 3,308 3,480
Non-OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 5,455 5,566 5,645 5,712 5,852

Oil 1,363 1,246 1,286 1,422 1,688
Gas 77 85 95 108 119
Biomass 15,799 15,640 15,224 14,664 14,579
Other sources 14,441 14,017 13,792 13,636 13,675
Total 37,136 36,554 36,043 35,542 35,913
World
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 5,850 5,937 5,982 6,024 6,124

Oil 1,857 1,601 1,557 1,660 1,928
Gas 99 109 120 136 150
Biomass 16,703 16,595 16,254 15,796 15,904
Other sources 15,959 15,552 15,350 15,235 15,288
Total 40,467 39,794 39,263 38,851 39,394
- 23 -
3.4 450 Scenario
Emissions for the 450 Scenario by country group are shown in Table 3.19 to Table 3.21. Emissions by
SNAP sector are presented in Table 3.22 to Table 3.23. Changes in fuel consumption volume and
structure aimed at a reduction of energy-related CO2 emissions cause an important reduction of
emission of air pollutants. By 2035, the SO2 emissions are 29.5 million tons (or 33 percent) lower than
in the Current Policies Scenario. Majority of that reduction (27 million tons) occurs in non-OECD
countries. In case of NOx, the emissions are 27 percent lower, which is to a large extent a result of
lower use of coal and lower emissions from mobile sources (road- and non-road vehicles). In absolute
terms this means nearly 25 million tons of NOx less, of which 21 million tons is due to lower
emissions from non-OECD countries. Also emissions of PM2.5 decrease compared with the Current
Policies Scenario. In 2035 they are about 3.3 million tons (or eight percent) lower. Similarly as in the
New Policies scenario the emissions from the OECD region are higher (by 0.6 million tons), which is
caused by higher use of biomass fuels in the residential sector. Emissions from the non-OECD
countries decrease by 3.9 million tons compared with the Current Policies case. Emissions by fuel for
the 450 scenario are shown in Table 3.25 to Table 3.27. Major contributor to lower emission levels is
the decrease in the use of coal (28 million tons of SO2, 14 million tons of NOx, and 3.5 million tons of
PM2.5 less compared with the Current Policies). Corresponding numbers for oil are: minus 3.3 million
tons of SO2, 9.2 million tons of NOx, and 0.5 million tons of PM2.5. In turn, the emissions from solid
biomass used in combustion processes are higher.
- 24 -
Table 3.19: Emissions of SO2 by country group in the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 5,506 4,179 3,044 2,790 2,835
Canada 1,600 1,449 1,403 1,389 1,377
Mexico 528 472 400 364 361
Japan 538 505 485 465 446
Korea 523 493 462 429 411
AUNZ 1,331 1,236 1,153 1,073 1,061
OE4 1,325 1,249 1,028 945 933
EUG4 1,124 948 779 736 741
EUO15 1,471 1,262 1,127 1,049 1,024
EU8 329 289 284 281 274
ETEnonEU 1,967 1,117 1,029 1,063 918
Russia 4,989 4,087 4,018 4,206 4,521
Caspian 2,741 2,689 2,543 2,439 2,374
RATE 35 35 30 24 22
China 35,544 32,132 25,944 21,312 19,714
India 8,977 10,005 10,327 10,510 10,507
Indonesia 1,025 1,049 1,047 1,032 1,016
ASEAN9 1,368 1,410 1,437 1,443 1,500
ODA 2,232 2,489 2,671 2,751 2,540
Brazil 1,179 1,133 1,155 1,189 1,193
OLAM 2,224 1,957 1,933 1,904 1,807
NAFR 727 590 494 463 444
South Africa 1,398 1,137 995 843 785
OAFR 1,601 1,304 1,233 1,173 1,125
ME 4,076 3,723 3,083 2,816 2,649
OECD 13,947 11,794 9,881 9,240 9,189
Non-OECD 70,410 65,148 58,223 53,450 51,388
World 84,357 76,942 68,105 62,690 60,577
- 25 -
Table 3.20: Emissions of NOx by country group in the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 9,158 7,232 5,936 5,347 5,229
Canada 1,075 903 817 798 790
Mexico 1,107 1,030 1,033 1,056 1,075
Japan 1,215 912 727 635 570
Korea 1,148 903 739 585 528
AUNZ 1,023 867 778 706 706
OE4 981 947 930 958 965
EUG4 3,471 2,578 2,130 1,918 1,854
EUO15 2,876 2,245 1,841 1,662 1,665
EU8 424 345 305 280 274
ETEnonEU 1,145 961 909 916 890
Russia 4,009 3,453 2,997 2,814 2,774
Caspian 1,437 1,454 1,527 1,527 1,516
RATE 91 99 103 100 106
China 21,549 20,636 18,777 17,256 17,294
India 4,869 5,590 6,316 7,197 8,490
Indonesia 1,604 1,472 1,496 1,555 1,569
ASEAN9 2,659 2,749 2,881 3,013 3,227
ODA 2,003 2,101 2,260 2,427 2,590
Brazil 2,558 2,497 2,432 2,554 2,684
OLAM 3,199 2,869 2,860 2,870 2,768
NAFR 1,398 1,395 1,383 1,404 1,366
South Africa 1,125 1,017 995 962 931
OAFR 1,922 1,884 1,917 1,934 1,984
ME 4,273 4,316 4,306 4,347 4,264
OECD 22,053 17,617 14,933 13,665 13,383
Non-OECD 54,266 52,836 51,464 51,156 52,727
World 76,319 70,453 66,397 64,821 66,110
- 26 -
Table 3.21: Emissions of PM2.5 by country group in the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 883 896 930 1,028 1,240
Canada 132 131 136 153 193
Mexico 395 401 415 434 455
Japan 136 120 109 103 99
Korea 167 161 156 148 148
AUNZ 164 155 149 149 158
OE4 426 436 441 446 448
EUG4 500 470 452 472 503
EUO15 535 520 518 540 581
EU8 215 213 215 215 220
ETEnonEU 551 514 527 592 596
Russia 1,351 1,312 1,275 1,246 1,223
Caspian 201 212 219 226 232
RATE 35 40 43 20 20
China 13,304 12,026 10,752 9,524 9,129
India 5,529 5,624 5,684 5,720 5,800
Indonesia 1,502 1,523 1,536 1,538 1,555
ASEAN9 1,876 1,881 1,848 1,810 1,820
ODA 2,305 2,408 2,543 2,628 2,623
Brazil 932 931 897 854 860
OLAM 1,248 1,238 1,230 1,238 1,232
NAFR 518 522 480 444 449
South Africa 404 400 383 365 354
OAFR 6,180 6,455 6,650 6,771 6,816
ME 798 815 752 697 707
OECD 3,340 3,291 3,305 3,473 3,826
Non-OECD 36,949 36,115 35,033 33,890 33,637
World 40,289 39,406 38,339 37,363 37,463
- 27 -
Table 3.22: Emissions of SO2 by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 933 854 772 702 649
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 35 30 28 26 26
8: Off-road sources 332 322 246 231 222
10: Agriculture 23 23 22 24 24
Sum 13,947 11,794 9,881 9,239 9,189
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 5,014 4,898 4,564 4,147 3,753
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 342 319 372 426 502
8: Off-road sources 1,014 1,035 1,026 1,026 1,125
10: Agriculture 149 155 162 170 170
Sum 70,410 65,148 58,223 53,450 51,388
World
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 5,947 5,753 5,336 4,850 4,403
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 377 349 401 452 528
8: Off-road sources 1,346 1,357 1,272 1,256 1,347
10: Agriculture 172 178 184 194 194
Sum 84,357 76,942 68,105 62,690 60,577
- 28 -
Table 3.23: Emissions of NOx by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 1,795 1,782 1,770 1,774 1,774
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 5,974 3,508 2,387 2,039 2,063
8: Off-road sources 4,121 3,405 2,737 2,318 2,221
10: Agriculture 56 54 52 55 55
Sum 22,053 17,617 14,933 13,665 13,383
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 3,347 3,367 3,323 3,233 3,144
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 12,406 11,243 11,231 11,961 13,442
8: Off-road sources 8,360 8,208 8,374 8,841 10,160
10: Agriculture 239 252 266 283 283
Sum 54,266 52,836 51,464 51,156 52,727
World
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 5,141 5,148 5,093 5,007 4,918
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 18,380 14,751 13,618 13,999 15,505
8: Off-road sources 12,481 11,614 11,112 11,159 12,382
10: Agriculture 294 306 318 338 338
Sum 76,319 70,453 66,397 64,821 66,110
- 29 -
Table 3.24: emissions of PM2.5 by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1: Power generation 179 151 91 52 50
2: Domestic 1,101 1,202 1,338 1,539 1,881
3: Industrial combust. 313 312 327 339 340
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 290 223 196 187 191
8: Off-road sources 306 243 192 172 180
10: Agriculture 378 376 368 386 386
Sum 3,340 3,291 3,305 3,473 3,826
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 16,903 16,610 16,076 15,354 14,983
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 653 580 600 654 769
8: Off-road sources 712 655 655 694 779
10: Agriculture 3,330 3,453 3,576 3,701 3,701
Sum 36,949 36,115 35,033 33,890 33,637
World
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 18,004 17,811 17,414 16,893 16,864
5: Fuel extraction 89 94 104 114 114
6: Solvents 0 0 0 0 0
7: Road traffic 942 803 795 841 960
8: Off-road sources 1,017 898 847 866 959
10: Agriculture 3,708 3,830 3,945 4,087 4,087
Sum 40,289 39,406 38,339 37,363 37,463
- 30 -
Table 3.25: Emissions of SO2 by fuel for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 6,584 4,610 2,804 2,171 2,172

Oil 2,813 2,532 2,237 2,040 1,873
Gas 37 37 34 34 31
Biomass 429 517 615 728 845
Other sources 4,083 4,099 4,190 4,267 4,267
Total 13,947 11,794 9,881 9,239 9,189
Non-OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 43,583 39,837 32,880 27,209 24,094

Oil 12,133 11,550 10,871 10,480 10,383
Gas 259 293 317 339 370
Biomass 1,963 2,145 2,655 3,675 4,793
Other sources 12,471 11,323 11,501 11,748 11,748
Total 70,410 65,148 58,224 53,450 51,388
World
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 50,167 44,447 35,684 29,380 26,267

Oil 14,946 14,081 13,108 12,520 12,256
Gas 296 329 351 373 402
Biomass 2,392 2,663 3,270 4,402 5,638
Other sources 16,555 15,422 15,691 16,015 16,015
Total 84,357 76,942 68,105 62,690 60,577
- 31 -
Table 3.26: Emissions of NOx by fuel for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 3,439 2,359 1,433 983 1,005

Oil 11,389 8,047 6,109 5,215 5,019
Gas 4,105 3,905 3,861 3,675 3,344
Biomass 942 1,088 1,257 1,456 1,679
Other sources 2,179 2,218 2,272 2,336 2,336
Total 22,053 17,617 14,933 13,665 13,383
Non-OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 16,859 16,733 14,792 12,695 11,143

Oil 22,780 21,368 21,345 22,332 24,987
Gas 4,582 4,404 4,445 4,522 4,650
Biomass 2,776 2,916 3,140 3,462 3,803
Other sources 7,269 7,415 7,742 8,144 8,144
Total 54,266 52,836 51,464 51,156 52,727
World
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 20,298 19,092 16,225 13,678 12,148

Oil 34,169 29,415 27,455 27,547 30,006
Gas 8,687 8,309 8,306 8,198 7,994
Biomass 3,717 4,004 4,397 4,918 5,482
Other sources 9,448 9,633 10,014 10,480 10,480
Total 76,319 70,453 66,396 64,821 66,110
- 32 -
Table 3.27: Emissions of PM2.5 fuel for the 450 Scenario, thousand tons/year
OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 383 340 255 200 186

Oil 484 339 250 210 201
Gas 23 26 30 39 54
Biomass 933 1,056 1,220 1,439 1,798
Other sources 1,516 1,531 1,550 1,585 1,588
Total 3,340 3,291 3,305 3,473 3,826
Non-OECD
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 5,347 5,323 4,931 4,469 4,134

Oil 1,338 1,191 1,189 1,258 1,425
Gas 76 82 90 99 107
Biomass 15,750 15,508 15,044 14,450 14,329
Other sources 14,439 14,010 13,780 13,614 13,641
Total 36,949 36,114 35,033 33,890 33,637
World
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Coal 5,731 5,664 5,186 4,669 4,320

Oil 1,822 1,529 1,439 1,468 1,626
Gas 99 108 120 137 161
Biomass 16,683 16,563 16,264 15,889 16,127
Other sources 15,955 15,541 15,330 15,199 15,229
Total 40,289 39,406 38,339 37,363 37,463
- 33 -
3.5 Comparison of emissions
Figure 3.1 to Figure 3.3 compare the emissions of air pollutants by major countries/country groups for
the two scenarios. Aggregation of country groups shown in this section is explained in Appendix 1.
Figures clearly demonstrate the prominent role of non-OECD countries in the world emissions of air
pollutants. Contributions of China and India are particularly high.
Figure 3.1: Emissions of SO2 in the WEO 2010 by country group, million tons
100
Current policies New policies 450 scenario
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2008 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035
USA EU Oth.OECD+ China Russia Oth. OME India Oth. countries
- 34 -
Figure 3.2: Emissions of NOx in the WEO 2010 by country group, million tons
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2008 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035
Figure 3.3: Emissions of PM2.5 in the WEO 2010 by country group, million tons
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
2005 2008 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035
- 35 -
4 Air pollution control costs
This section presents air pollution control costs for the three WEO 2010 scenarios. Calculations
include international costs of pollution control equipment and have been done using the four percent
(social) real interest rate. All costs and prices are expressed in constant € 2005 and take into account
“current policy” pollution control legislation. Methodology of costs calculations can be found in
Amann et al, 2004.
Under such assumptions control costs were about 157 billion €/a in 2005. Until 2035 these costs
increase in the Current Policies Scenario by more than a factor of three, which is due to higher activity
levels (higher energy consumption, higher car ownership) and increasing stringency of controls. In
2035, 64 percent of the total are costs of reducing emissions from road transport sources.
The 450 Scenario brings 23 percent cost savings in 2035 compared with the Current Policies scenario.
The New Policies scenario brings nine percent reduction of costs. Details by country group are
presented in Table 4.1 to Table 4.3. Costs by sector (SNAP aggregation) are shown in Table 4.4 to
Table 4.6. Figure 4.1 compares the costs by countries/country groups for the three scenarios.
Figure 4.1: Air pollution control costs for the WEO 2010 scenarios by country group, billion €/year
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005 2008 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035
- 36 -
Table 4.1: Air pollution control costs by country group in the Current Policies Scenario, billion €/year
WEM region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 40.7 46.8 49.8 60.1 66.7 72.7 76.6 83.8
Canada 3.2 3.9 4.4 5.4 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.5
Mexico 3.2 4.3 4.8 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.9
Japan 12.1 13.2 13.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.2
Korea 3.5 4.3 4.8 6.0 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0
AUNZ 3.4 4.0 4.1 5.0 5.6 5.8 5.8 6.0
OE4 3.0 4.0 4.3 6.3 8.8 11.3 13.7 15.7
EUG4 24.1 27.8 29.7 35.9 42.0 44.8 46.2 46.2
EU015 17.0 21.3 22.5 28.3 35.1 38.6 40.0 40.9
EU8 1.8 3.0 3.6 4.9 5.8 6.6 7.2 7.3
ETEnonEU 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.9 4.0 4.6 5.3 5.5
Russia 2.5 4.2 5.1 7.2 9.0 10.7 11.6 13.0
Caspian 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
RATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
China 18.9 30.4 38.8 60.6 82.7 98.7 111.5 137.6
India 1.6 2.3 2.7 5.5 7.7 10.6 14.8 21.2
Indonesia 1.7 2.3 2.9 4.1 4.9 5.8 6.8 7.7
ASEAN9 3.3 4.6 5.4 7.2 9.3 11.0 12.5 14.2
ODA 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.7
Brazil 2.8 4.3 5.3 8.4 10.5 12.6 13.7 15.3
OLAM 2.9 4.5 5.4 8.0 10.7 12.1 13.2 14.1
NAFR 1.2 1.9 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.4
South Africa 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.7 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.1
OAFR 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.7 3.7 4.5 5.4 6.3
ME 3.6 6.1 8.0 12.3 16.2 19.6 22.2 23.6
OECD 110.4 129.6 137.3 166.9 191.3 207.3 217.4 228.2
Non-OECD 46.9 71.6 88.4 133.3 176.0 209.9 238.7 281.9
World 157.2 201.2 225.7 300.2 367.3 417.2 456.1 510.1
- 37 -
Table 4.2: Air pollution control costs by country group in the New Policies Scenario, billion €/year
WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 60.0 66.2 71.0 73.3 78.8
Canada 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.0
Mexico 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.7 7.2
Japan 13.9 13.8 13.5 13.0 12.0
Korea 5.9 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.1
AUNZ 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.3
OE4 6.3 8.5 10.8 13.2 14.8
EUG4 35.4 39.8 41.6 42.0 41.4
EU015 28.4 34.1 35.9 36.1 35.9
EU8 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.4 6.4
ETEnonEU 2.9 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.2
Russia 7.2 8.9 10.4 11.0 12.1
Caspian 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
RATE 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
China 59.8 80.1 93.5 102.7 123.8
India 5.3 7.2 9.7 13.3 18.9
Indonesia 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.0
ASEAN9 6.9 8.9 10.4 11.6 13.0
ODA 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0
Brazil 8.4 10.5 12.6 13.7 15.2
OLAM 8.0 10.5 11.7 12.6 13.2
NAFR 3.2 4.0 4.5 4.8 5.1
South Africa 2.7 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.7
OAFR 2.7 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.0
ME 12.1 15.6 18.3 20.1 21.7
OECD 165.8 185.9 196.8 201.8 207.6
Non-OECD 131.4 170.6 199.3 221.4 257.0
World 297.1 356.6 396.0 423.2 464.6
- 38 -
Table 4.3: Air pollution control costs by country group in the 450 Scenario, billion €/year
WEM region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US 59.4 64.3 61.3 61.0 67.2
Canada 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.6
Mexico 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1
Japan 13.7 13.0 12.2 11.0 9.5
Korea 5.8 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.2
AUNZ 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.3
OE4 6.1 8.2 9.7 11.3 12.3
EUG4 35.2 39.3 39.8 39.2 37.5
EU015 27.4 32.5 33.3 33.3 33.4
EU8 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.1
ETEnonEU 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.5 4.4
Russia 7.2 8.7 9.8 9.9 10.2
Caspian 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
RATE 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
China 59.1 77.5 85.4 87.6 101.9
India 5.2 7.0 9.1 11.9 15.6
Indonesia 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.4
ASEAN9 6.9 8.6 9.7 10.2 11.1
ODA 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3
Brazil 8.3 10.1 11.7 12.4 13.5
OLAM 7.7 10.0 10.8 11.0 10.9
NAFR 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3
South Africa 2.6 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.5
OAFR 2.6 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.0
ME 12.0 15.1 16.7 17.1 17.0
OECD 163.4 179.7 178.2 176.9 181.1
Non-OECD 129.4 164.0 182.7 191.5 211.6
World 292.8 343.7 360.9 368.4 392.7
- 39 -
Table 4.4: Air pollution control costs by SNAP sector for the Current Policies Scenario, billion €/year
OECD
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1: Power generation 32.6 34.0 36.0 37.8 37.5 36.1 34.3 33.4
2: Domestic 7.3 8.8 9.3 10.6 12.2 13.2 14.8 15.7
3: Industrial combust. 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6
4: Industrial processes 7.4 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.9
5: Fuel extraction 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7: Road traffic 55.5 68.6 72.6 93.4 109.9 120.3 127.0 138.5
8: Off-road sources 1.4 3.5 3.7 8.7 14.6 20.0 23.3 22.6
9: Waste management 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10: Agriculture 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Sum 110.4 129.6 137.3 166.9 191.3 207.4 217.4 228.2
Non-OECD
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 2.4 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.7 6.7
5: Fuel extraction 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7: Road traffic 15.8 31.1 38.4 69.6 99.3 124.3 146.9 185.3
8: Off-road sources 0.8 2.1 2.6 6.2 12.2 14.4 14.0 14.6
10: Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sum 46.9 71.6 88.4 133.3 176.0 209.9 238.7 281.9
World
SNAP sector 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 9.6 11.4 12.5 14.6 17.0 18.9 21.5 22.3
5: Fuel extraction 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7
6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7: Road traffic 71.3 99.7 111.0 163.0 209.2 244.6 273.9 323.8
8: Off-road sources 2.3 5.6 6.3 15.0 26.7 34.5 37.3 37.2
10: Agriculture 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Sum 157.2 201.2 225.7 300.2 367.3 417.2 456.1 510.1
- 40 -
Table 4.5: Air pollution control costs by SNAP sector for the New Policies Scenario, billion €/year
OECD
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1: Power generation 36.8 33.8 30.5 26.6 22.3
2: Domestic 10.7 12.9 14.8 17.7 20.2
3: Industrial combust. 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.4
4: Industrial processes 8.9 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.9
5: Fuel extraction 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7: Road traffic 93.1 107.9 115.2 118.5 127.8
8: Off-road sources 8.6 14.1 18.8 21.0 19.5
9: Waste management 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10: Agriculture 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Sum 165.8 185.9 196.8 201.8 207.6
Non-OECD
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 4.0 4.7 5.6 6.6 6.6
5: Fuel extraction 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7: Road traffic 68.9 97.5 120.1 139.7 174.3
8: Off-road sources 6.2 11.8 13.7 13.0 13.3
10: Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sum 131.4 170.6 199.3 221.4 257.0
World
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 14.7 17.7 20.3 24.3 26.7
5: Fuel extraction 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7
6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7: Road traffic 162.0 205.4 235.3 258.3 302.1
8: Off-road sources 14.8 26.0 32.5 34.0 32.9
10: Agriculture 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Sum 297.1 356.6 396.0 423.2 464.6
- 41 -
Table 4.6: Air pollution control costs by SNAP sector for the 450 Scenario, billion €/year
OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 10.8 13.5 16.3 20.7 24.8
5: Fuel extraction 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7: Road traffic 91.6 104.6 109.4 108.2 109.1
8: Off-road sources 8.5 13.4 17.1 18.1 15.8
10: Agriculture 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Sum 163.4 179.7 178.2 176.9 181.1
Non-OECD countries
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.7 6.7
5: Fuel extraction 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7: Road traffic 67.7 93.4 111.5 123.8 147.5
8: Off-road sources 6.0 11.1 12.4 11.2 11.2
10: Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sum 129.4 164.0 182.7 191.5 211.6
World
SNAP sector 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2: Domestic 14.8 18.3 21.9 27.3 31.5
5: Fuel extraction 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7
6: Solvents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7: Road traffic 159.3 198.0 221.0 231.9 256.5
8: Off-road sources 14.5 24.5 29.5 29.3 27.0
10: Agriculture 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Sum 292.8 343.7 360.9 368.4 392.7
- 42 -
5 Health impacts
Comprehensive assessment of all health and environmental impacts of energy scenarios analyzed in
this report was not possible for all countries due to lack of data. Thus the analysis was limited to the
estimates of life years lost (YOLL) attributable to the exposure to PM2.5 in ambient air in Europe,
China and India. Countries included cover nearly half of the world population. Ambient PM2.5
concentrations include primary PM2.5 as well as secondary aerosols (sulphates and nitrates).
Methodology of the assessment was developed in collaboration with the World Health Organization
(WHO) - compare Amann, Heyes, Schöpp, and Mechler, 2004. Since the YOLL indicator includes
long-term health effects of exposure to fine particles, the estimates refer to the population above the
age of thirty8. It needs to be stressed that the assessment covers only outdoor exposure and does not
consider negative health effects of indoor air pollution.
Concentrations of fine particles as in 2005 cause a loss of about 1.9 billion of life years - Table 5.1.
This estimate is dominated by impacts in China and India, which together contribute 85 percent of
YOLL in 2005. The Current Policies Scenario implies an increase of the YOLL indicator until 2035 by
about 70 percent to 3.2 billion. This is a combined effect of higher emissions of air pollutants and
population increase in India and China and a decrease of air pollution in Europe. Reductions of
precursor emissions in the 450 Scenario compared with the Current Policies case and thus lower
concentrations of PM2.5 in 2035 save 740 million life-years, of which 360 million in China and 380
million in India. The New Policies scenario reduces life-years lost in the countries included in the
analysis by 340 million.
Compared with the numbers presented in the World Energy Outlook 2009, current estimates are lower.
They take into account more conservative (lower) values of relative risk factors for developing
countries (China and India), resulting from recent activities of the Global Burden of Disease Project9.
8
In 2005, the share of population over the age of thirty was 53 percent in China, 42 percent in India and 72
percent in the European Union.
9
http://www.globalburden.org/index.html
- 43 -
Table 5.1: Life years lost (YOLL) due to exposure to anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5, million life
years
WEM Current Policies Scenario

region 2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
China 1163 1313 1413 1514 1565 1545 1531 1573
India 432 504 552 684 854 1043 1302 1466
Russia (1) 53 52 50 50 49 48 49 49
EU-8 17 14 12 11 10 10 10 9
OE4 (2) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
EUG4 106 91 82 73 65 62 62 49
EU015 74 62 54 49 45 43 43 36
ETEnonEU 34 31 28 27 24 24 26 24
WEM New Policies Scenario

region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
China 1496 1517 1470 1421 1420
India 674 825 979 1185 1286
Russia (1) 50 48 47 48 48
EU-8 11 10 9 9 9
OE4 (2) 2 2 1 1 1
EUG4 73 63 60 60 47
EU015 49 44 42 42 34
ETEnonEU 27 23 23 24 23
WEM 450 Scenario

region 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
China 1486 1491 1375 1266 1215
India 660 792 913 1057 1085
Russia (1) 50 47 46 46 46
EU-8 11 9 9 9 8
OE4 (2) 2 2 1 1 1
EUG4 72 62 58 58 45
EU015 48 43 41 41 33
ETEnonEU 26 22 22 23 21
(1)
Only European part
(2)
Does not include Turkey
- 44 -
6 Summary and conclusions
This report presents emissions of air pollutants for energy scenarios analyzed in the World Energy
Outlook 2010. Estimations have been done with the IIASA GAINS model. The study covers emissions
from 25 regions of the world, consistent with the aggregation of countries in the IEA World Energy
Model. The national assessment does not include emissions form international shipping as well as
cruising emissions from aviation. Also emissions from biomass burning (deforestation, savannah
burning, and vegetation fires) are not included in national totals.
The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. In the
Current Policies Scenario the world emissions of SO2 (96 million tons in 2005) decrease by 11 percent
until 2020. In the period 2030 – 2035 the emissions increase by about 5 million tons. The emissions of
NOx (86 million tons in 2005) decrease until 2020 also by about 11 percent and then begin to rise, so
that in 2035 they are six percent higher than in 2005. Emissions of PM2.5 (35 million tons in 2005) are
four to seven percent higher over the projection period
The 450 Scenario, with stringent policies to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions, causes important
reductions of emissions of air pollutants compared with the Current Policies case. In 2035 this
reduction is 33 % for SO2, 27 percent for NOx, and eight percent for PM2.5. Expenditures on air
pollution control in the 450 scenario are reduced in 2035 by 117 billion €/a compared with the Current
Policy case. Also impact of air pollution on human health is much lower for the scenario with stringent
climate measures. In 2035, life years lost in Europe, China and India attributable to the exposure from
anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5 decrease in the 450 scenario by 23 percent, which means saving of
more than seven hundred million life years.
These numbers clearly demonstrate the importance of co-benefits of climate policies for air pollution.
These co-benefits should be taken into account in the process of developing strategies and targets for
reducing emissions of climate-relevant gases.
- 45 -
References
Amann, M. et al. (2004). The RAINS model: Documentation of the model approach prepared for the
RAINS peer review 2004. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria. (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/review/review-full.pdf)
Amann, M., Heyes, Ch., Schöpp, W., Mechler, R. (2004). The RAINS model: Modelling of Health
Impacts of Fine Particles. Revised version, May 2004. International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/review/review-
healthpm.pdf)
Amann, M., I. Bertok, J. Cofala, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, P. Rafaj, W. Schöpp and F. Wagner (2008).
National Emission Ceilings for 2020 taking account of the Commission’s proposal on the
2008 Climate and Energy Package. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA) Laxenburg, Austria.(http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/reports/NEC6-final110708.pdf).
Amann, M., (ed.) 2010: Greenhouse Gases and air Pollution in the European Union: Baseline
projections up to 2030: EC4MACS Interim Assessment. European Consortium for Modelling
Air pollution and Climate Strategies. Project funded by the EU LIFE program.
(http://www.ec4macs.eu/home/reports/public/EC4MACS%20Interim%20Assessment-FINAL-
16032010.pdf)
Cofala, J., M. Amann, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen and L. Höglund-Isaksson (2007). Scenarios of Global
Anthropogenic Emissions of Air Pollutants and Methane until 2030. Atmospheric
Environment Vol 41/38: 8486-8499.
DieselNet (2010). Emission Standards. Summary of worldwide diesel emission standards.

(http://www.dieselnet.com).
IEA CCC (2010). Coal Power Database. IEA Clean Coal Centre, London. (http://www.iea-
coal.org.uk/site/ieacoal/databases/login/coal-power?).
Klimont, Z., J. Cofala, J. Xing, W. Wei, C. Zhang, S. Wang, J. Kejun, P. Bhandari, R. Mathur, P.
Purohit, P. Rafaj, A. Chambers, M. Amann, J. Hao (2009). Projections of SO2, NOx and
carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia. Tellus 61B (602-617).
OECD/IEA (2010). World Energy Outlook 2010. OECD/International Energy Agency, Paris, France.
- 46 -
Appendix 1
Breakdown of world regions
WEM region GAINS Equivalent

US United States of America
CAN Canada
Mexico Mexico
Japan Japan
Korea Korea (South)
AUNZ Australia+New Zealand
OE4 Norway+Switzerland+Turkey, Iceland
EUG4 France+Germany+Italy+United Kingdom
EU015 Austria+Belgium+Czech Republic + Denmark+Finland+ Greece +Hungary
+Ireland+Luxembourg+ Netherlands+Poland+ Portugal+Slovak Republic
+Spain+Sweden
EU-8 Bulgaria+Cyprus+Estonia+Latvia+Lithuania+Malta+Romania+Slovenia
ETEnonEU Albania+Belarus+Bosnia and Herzogovina+Croatia+Macedonia+ Republic of
Moldova+Serbia and Montenegro+Ukraine (Gibraltar unavailable)
Russia Russia
Caspian Azerbaijan+Kazakhstan+Other USSR Asia
ATE Armenia+Georgia+Kyrgyzstan
China China
India India
Indonesia Indonesia
ASEAN9 Brunei+Cambodia+Laos+Malaysia+Myanmar+Philippines+Singapore+Thailan
d+Vietnam
RODA Bangladesh+DPR of Korea+Mongolia+Nepal+Pakistan+Sri Lanka+Chinese
Taipei, Afghaniastan, Bhutan (other countries in Asia unavailable)
Brazil Brazil
OLAM Argentina+Chile+Other Latin America
NAFR Egypt+North Africa
South Africa South Africa
OAFR Other Africa
Middle East Middle East
Aggregations
Aggregated WEM region Coverage

OECD+ OECD countries plus non-OECD EU Member States
OME Other Major Economies (Brazil, China, Russia, South Africa and countries of
the Middle East)
Other countries All countries not belonging to OECD+ and OME (except India, which is shown
on the graphs separately)
- 47 -

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International Institute for Tel: +43 2236 807 0

Applied Systems Analysis Fax: +43 2236 71313

Emissions of Air Pollutants

Janusz Cofala, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schöpp,

IIASA Contract No. 10-112

CLRTAP UN/ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

3.1 Assumptions about emission control policies

Coal 16,464 9,292 6,902 5,577 4,853 4,591 4,458

Coal 40,526 42,795 46,177 45,831 44,999 45,703 50,180

Coal 56,991 52,087 53,078 51,407 49,853 50,295 54,638

Coal 6,816 4,628 3,606 2,835 2,559 2,406 2,309

Coal 11,993 15,351 17,791 19,104 20,263 21,891 24,030

Coal 18,809 19,979 21,397 21,940 22,822 24,297 26,339

Coal 418 412 402 401 390 379 369

Coal 4,098 4,917 5,604 5,966 6,360 6,863 7,486

Coal 4,516 5,329 6,006 6,368 6,750 7,242 7,855

Coal 6,752 5,068 4,081 3,640 3,107

Coal 44,866 42,392 39,455 37,371 38,226

Coal 51,618 47,461 43,536 41,011 41,333

Coal 3,505 2,547 2,120 1,812 1,465

Coal 17,256 17,649 17,706 17,859 18,307

Coal 20,761 20,195 19,826 19,672 19,772

Coal 395 371 337 312 271

Coal 5,455 5,566 5,645 5,712 5,852

Coal 5,850 5,937 5,982 6,024 6,124

Coal 6,584 4,610 2,804 2,171 2,172

Coal 43,583 39,837 32,880 27,209 24,094

Coal 50,167 44,447 35,684 29,380 26,267

Coal 3,439 2,359 1,433 983 1,005

Coal 16,859 16,733 14,792 12,695 11,143

Coal 20,298 19,092 16,225 13,678 12,148

Coal 383 340 255 200 186

Coal 5,347 5,323 4,931 4,469 4,134

Coal 5,731 5,664 5,186 4,669 4,320

USA EU Oth.OECD+ China Russia Oth. OME India Oth. countries

USA EU Oth.OECD+ China Russia Oth. OME India Oth. countries

USA EU Oth.OECD+ China Russia Oth. OME India Oth. countries

USA EU Oth.OECD+ China Russia Oth. OME India Oth. countries

WEM Current Policies Scenario

WEM New Policies Scenario

WEM 450 Scenario

DieselNet (2010). Emission Standards. Summary of worldwide diesel emission standards.

Breakdown of world regions

WEM region GAINS Equivalent

Aggregated WEM region Coverage

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