SO WHAT IS THE CYCLONE DOING NOW?

Heavy rainfall has continued to fall over some parts of Masirah Island and parts of coastal areas
of Al-Sharqiya region in the past hours associated with winds up to 70km/hr. Latest Satellite
images and numerical weather prediction charts indicate the tropical cyclone PHET is centered
over west Arabian Sea has moved further towards North West direction. It's center is currently
located near latitude 19.3 degrees North and longitude 59.3 degrees east. PHET is around 160 km
away from Masirah Island. Maximum sustained wind speed around the center is estimated to be
around 180 km/h and by which it is still classified as Category 3.

The cyclone is expected to enter the land from the area between Adoqum and Masirah Island
which will affect mainly the Masirah Island and the regions of Al-sharqiya and Al-wusta with
about 2 meters of storm surge over the coastal areas .

The rainy convective clouds of this cyclone (PHET) expected to extend to affect Governates of
Muscat and Al-buraimi and regions of, AlDhakhlia and AlBhatinah and Al-Dhaerah within the
next 48 hours.

The Directorate request People in the affected areas are to take precautions on the low lands from
flowing Wadis because of the heavy rain and Fishermen are also advised to be precautious as seas
are expected to be rough along the

-Civil Aviation Affairs

Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN)
Department of Forecasting and Observing Practices

Cyclone Phet is the second-strongest tropical cyclone on record to develop within the Arabian Sea. “Phet” is
aThai word, meaning Spice. It was formed on May 31, 2010 and still is active. Phet spares Gujarat, India
and eyes Oman and Pakistan.
Cyclone Phet killed 15 people and left two missing in Oman before barrelling towards Pakistan, a civil
defence force.

The department said the storm was carrying winds gusting up to 120 kilometres per hour as it moved near
Oman. In Oman, The Royal Police of Oman has issued an emergency evacuation notice to the residents of
Masirah and Ras al Hadd for the preparation of the tropical storm Phet. Oman’s Government authorities are
also advising residents to stay away from the seas while around 10,000 people have been moved to safer
areas.

Cyclone Phet Looming Over Pakistani Coast. The storm, that is expected to hit the Pakistani coastline over
the weekend could disrupt life in the commercial capital Karachi, the nearby coastal district of Thatta and
vast areas of the south-western province of Baluchistan.

Monsoon to revive as Cyclone Phet prepares to sign off

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, June 4

There is increasing convergence in model predictions that erstwhile super cyclone Phet, leaving the Oman
coast and slipping into the North Arabian Sea, may not intensify beyond a threshold limit.

Rain-Bearing System

Phet is forecast to careen along the Karachi coast and make a landfall as a category-2 storm, according to
Dr Jayaraman Potty, Chief Scientist, Hydro-Met Section, at the Bangkok-based Regional Integrated Multi-
Hazard Early Warning System .

Models differ only in the choice of place where Cyclone Phet would make a landfall. According to Dr
Akhilesh Gupta, leading operational forecaster and Advisor to Department of Science and Technology, the
place of landfall – Sindh or Gujarat – would only benefit from Phet's ‘rain-bearing' capacity, and not get
impacted otherwise.

Importantly, the focus should now turn back to the Arabian Sea where conditions are just falling in place for
a spectacular recovery of monsoon flows, Dr Gupta said.

What is leading to this denouement is the crucial timing of the arrival of a rain-boosting Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO wave).

The MJO wave moves from west to east in the upper levels but has a profound influence on ground-level
weather, especially during a monsoon.

La Nina In

The MJO is responsible for setting up monsoon onsets, and initiating the formation of monsoon ‘low's and
depressions.

Coincidentally on Friday, the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction announced that a monsoon-
friendly La Nina would develop in the equatorial Pacific during June-July-August.

The onset phase as declared by India Meteorological Department around May 31 saw Sri Lanka and the
monsoon gateway over Kerala getting covered under the influence of the previous MJO wave.
But it also saw cyclone ‘Laila' spinning up in the Bay of Bengal. Hardly had the monsoon managed to make
the onset than the MJO moved away to the east. The onset progress was thus stalled.

Ideally, the monsoon should make most of the support of the MJO wave to sustain on its own and be put on
auto-pilot for propelling itself northward.

This had clearly failed to happen during the onset phase, Dr Gupta said.

But it will, this time round, only because the incoming MJO wave would drift in after cyclone Phet has spent
itself out.

This is a made-to-order situation for a good monsoon revival; had the MJO wave arrived any time during the
formation of Phet, it would have messed up the situation and could well have led to cyclone Aila-like
situation and endless wait for the rains.

The Arabian Sea flows are now seen picking up strongly by Tuesday/Wednesday next. The all-important
monsoon ‘shear zone,' the playground for monsoon systems, is seen getting ready by Thursday along the
Kerala latitude.

This represents the ‘monsoon front' at the higher levels of the atmosphere, and would progressively move to
the northward under active monsoon conditions.

The required kinetic energy is also seen establishing over the Arabian Sea boosted by moisture inflows. This
phase also would see formation of monsoon ‘low's form in the north and northwest Bay of Bengal.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a system developing in the northwest
Bay of Bengal along the Andhra coast.

According to Dr Gupta, peninsular India is likely to be covered during the initial monsoon burst but anything
beyond would depend on the formation monsoon-driving ‘low's and depressions in the Bay of Bengal.