Contoh Perhitungan Proyeksi Kependudukan
Contoh Perhitungan Proyeksi Kependudukan
Linear Aritmetik
rata-rata
2016 r tanpa 2017 2018 2019 2020
2009
1 Pemenang Barat 13,674 0.007 13,774 13,874 13,975 14,075
2 Pemenang Timur 7,373 0.012 7,460 7,547 7,635 7,722
3 Gili Indah 5,961 0.049 6,254 6,547 6,840 7,133
4 Malaka 8,858 0.014 8,980 9,103 9,225 9,348
Kec. Pemenang 35,866 0.016 36,447 37,027 37,608 38,189
1 2 3 4
Geometrik
rata-rata
2009 2016 r tanpa 2017 2018 2019 2020
2009
1 Pemenang Barat 13,232 13,674 0.007 13,774 13,875 13,977 14,079
2 Pemenang Timur 6,941 7,373 0.012 7,460 7,548 7,638 7,728
3 Gili Indah 4,457 5,961 0.049 6,254 6,561 6,884 7,222
4 Malaka 8,259 8,858 0.014 8,980 9,105 9,230 9,358
Kec. Pemenang 32,889 35,866 0.016 36,447 37,037 37,636 38,246
Eksponensial
rata-rata bilangan
2009 2016 r tanpa ekspone 2017 2018 2019
2009 nsial
1 Pemenang Barat 13,232 13,674 0.007 2.718 13,775 13,876 13,978
2 Pemenang Timur 6,941 7,373 0.012 2.718 7,461 7,549 7,639
3 Gili Indah 4,457 5,961 0.049 2.718 6,261 6,577 6,908
4 Malaka 8,259 8,858 0.014 2.718 8,981 9,106 9,233
Kec. Pemenang 32,889 35,866 0.016 2.718 36,451 37,046 37,651
Regresi Linear
Jumlah Penduduk (jiwa)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 Pemenang Barat y = 98,407x 13,232 13,086 13,204 13,322 13,442 13,519
2 Pemenang Timury = 86,694x 6,941 6,868 6,929 6,991 7,054 7,159
3 Gili Indah y = 265,03x 4,457 4,439 4,479 4,519 4,560 4,986
4 Malaka y = 121,54x 8,259 8,153 8,226 8,300 8,375 8,533
Kec. Pemenang y = 571,66x 32,889 32,546 32,838 33,133 33,431 34,197
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5
Laju
Laju
a) Pertumb
Pertumbu
2015 2016
uhan
han 2013- Pemenang Barat
2010-
2016 13,800
13,601 2013
13,674 0.00899 0.0057
13,600 f(x) = 98.407482293x + 13013.1942474725
7,302 7,373 0.00895 0.0149
13,400 R² = 0.9886753053
5,673 5,961 0.00900 0.0934
13,200
8,754 8,858 0.00900 0.0189
13,000
35,330 35,866 12,800
7 8 12,600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
536
a)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
13,601 13,674 13,800 13,899 13,997 14,095 14,194 14,292 14,391
7,302 7,373 7,443 7,530 7,617 7,704 7,790 7,877 7,964
5,673 5,961 6,005 6,270 6,536 6,801 7,066 7,331 7,596
8,754 8,858 8,943 9,065 9,186 9,308 9,429 9,551 9,673
35,330 35,866 36,192 36,764 37,336 37,907 38,479 39,051 39,622
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Gili Indah Kec. Pemenang
7,000 37,000
6,000 36,000
5,000 f(x) = 265.0257193765x + 3885.2180081531 35,000 f(x) = 571.6622345234x + 31619.2590074836
4,000 R² = 0.831023688 34,000 R² = 0.9369692969
3,000 33,000
2,000 32,000
1,000 31,000
0 30,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Malaka
9,000
8,800
f(x) = 121.5352666003x + 7970.9553812149
8,600 R² = 0.9580903374
8,400
8,200
8,000
7,800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2590074836