Assumptions
Business Profile
Total Investment Cost
Farmer's Income
Trucking Schedule
Admin Expenses - Salaries
Admin and Selling Expenses
Capital Expenditure Schedule
Projected Cash Flow Statement
Projected Income Statement
Projected Balance Sheet
Sensitivity Analysis
Capital Expenditure and Depreciation Schedule
Payback Period
Break-even Analysis Schedule
Break-even Analysis
Assumptions
Tinagacan Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries Cooperative
2
3
4
5
8
9
Assumptions
Tinagacan Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries Cooperative
Each hectare is assumed to be planted with 100 trees; average production 60 nuts/tree/year with a projected increase of 3%
One whole nut has an average weight of 1.2kgs/nut
It is assumed that out of the 100% whole nuts produced, 95% will be bought by the PG to be delivered to its buyer, 5% will be
rejects and will be processed into white copra at the farmers level as an added income by the individual farmer
Buying of whole nuts from the members is done on a per cluster in a barangay; deliveries will be done 4 times a week
The PG will purchase one (1) unit of hauler truck to be used in the hauling operation during the first year of project implement
one (1) unit of hauler truck will be purchased on its third year of implementation to be able to cope up with the increasing vol
delivered to the buyer
Grand Total (hectares) 3,390.02 253.70 3,136.32 276.52 284.04 472.19 489.50 551.67
footnotes:
100% captured area for TARBC members
*No. of hectarage in the 1st year is assumed to be 5% of the bearing areas/brgy; additional 5% increase in the 2nd year
**additional 25% increase on the 3rd year; another 5% increase until the 10th year
Particulars Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
Hectarage 276.52 284.04 472.19 489.50 551.67 570.75 590.79 610.83
No. of Trees 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Nuts/Tree 60.00 61.80 63.65 65.56 67.53 69.56 71.64 73.79
Vol. of production 1,659,096.00 1,755,378.32 3,005,657.86 3,209,313.89 3,725,463.07 3,969,965.33 4,232,620.84 4,507,462.70
less: rejects (5%) 82,954.80 87,768.92 150,282.89 160,465.69 186,273.15 198,498.27 211,631.04 225,373.14
Net volume (nuts) 1,576,141.20 1,667,609.41 2,855,374.96 3,048,848.20 3,539,189.91 3,771,467.06 4,020,989.79 4,282,089.57
Footnotes:
*3% increase in the annual volume of production
** rejects of 5% will be retained by the farmers for processing into white copra at their level
Particulars Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
Whole Nuts 1,576,141.20 1,667,609.41 2,855,374.96 3,048,848.20 3,539,189.91 3,771,467.06 4,020,989.79 4,282,089.57
No. of Deliveries 158.00 167.00 286.00 305.00 177.00 189.00 202.00 215.00
Footnotes:
* number of deliveries is based on the capacity of the hauler truck
** hauler truck capacity is 10mt/delivery
*** one hauler truck will be purchased on the ist year; another hauler truck will be purchased on the 3rd year
Particulars Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
Production volume 1,576,141.20 1,667,609.41 2,855,374.96 3,048,848.20 3,539,189.91 3,771,467.06 4,020,989.79 4,282,089.57
Price/nut 9.00 9.27 9.55 9.83 10.13 10.43 10.75 11.07
Procurement Cost 14,185,270.80 15,458,739.21 27,263,405.69 29,984,028.69 35,850,504.85 39,349,475.88 43,211,448.88 47,397,870.46
Footnotes:
* whole nut will be bought on a per nut basis from the farmers
** Prevailing Price is Php 8.00 in 2016
***Buying price of whole nut is based on the pick up price of the buyer less the 0.20/kg mark-up of the PG
**** Buying price is based on 2016 lowest price of the buyer; as noted this is still higher than the price of the local buyers in the city
****Price increases by 3% per annum based on inflation rate
Y9 Y10
631.87 653.91
100.00 100.00
76.01 78.29
4,802,600.68 5,119,233.63
240,130.03 255,961.68
4,562,470.65 4,863,271.95
Y9 Y10
4,562,470.65 4,863,271.95
229.00 244.00
Y9 Y10
4,562,470.65 4,863,271.95
11.40 11.74
52,016,411.84 57,109,201.43
Y9 Y10
52,016,411.84 57,109,201.43
461,763.03 506,773.90
52,478,174.87 57,615,975.33
Year 9 Year 10
31,276.55 32,214.85
31,276.55 32,214.85
Year 9 Year 10
5,474,964.78 5,835,926.34
11.65 12.00
63,806,798.53 70,053,953.75
Year 9 Year 10
5,474,964.78 5,835,926.34
PHP 2,737,482.39 PHP 2,917,963.17
PHP 2,737,482.39 PHP 2,917,963.17
Total Investment Cost
TINAGACAN Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries Cooperative
FUND SOU
Components / Line Items Total Cost
LP from WB (Cash) GOP (Cash)
Capacity Qty Unit Cost
Operational Costs
470,000.00
500,000.00
800,000.00
30,000.00
3,200.00
1,174.30
1,957.16
6,331.46
85,599.93
7,133.33
5,186.03
Total Volume
6,000.00
6,180.00
6,365.40
6,556.36
6,753.05
6,955.64
7,164.31
7,379.24
7,600.62
7,828.64
Trucking Schedule
Distance Travelled
Origin Pick up Destination in Kilometers
Hauling
TARBC Office - Brgy. Tinagacan Tinagacan 1
Brgy. Katangawan 4
Brgy. Olympog 4
Total Brgy. Upper Labay 6
Delivery 15
Delivery
1 2
Volume to be hauled (kg) 1,891,369.44 2,001,131.29
Vehicle Capacity Per Trip 10,000.00 10,000.00
Number of Trips Required 158.00 167.00
Total Distance Travelled (km) 190.00 190.00
Total Fuel Consumption Per Liter 47.50 47.50
Cost of Fuel Per Liter 32.00 32.96
Total Fuel Cost PHP 240,160.00 PHP 261,455.20
Hauling
1 2
Volume to be delivered (kg) 1,891,369.44 2,001,131.29
Vehicle Capacity Per Trip 10,000.00 10,000.00
Number of Trips Required 190.00 201.00
Total Distance Travelled (km) 7.50 7.50
Total Fuel Consumption per Liter 1.88 1.88
Cost of Fuel Per Liter 32.00 32.96
Total Fuel Cost PHP 11,400.00 PHP 12,421.80
Net Income (net of dep & r & m) PHP 282,124.72 PHP 314,688.64
7.50 km
Year
3 4 5 6
3,426,449.96 3,658,617.84 4,247,027.90 4,525,760.47
20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00
286.00 305.00 177.00 189.00
190.00 190.00 190.00 190.00
47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50
33.95 34.97 36.02 37.10
PHP 461,194.45 PHP 506,588.24 PHP 302,806.89 PHP 333,036.26
Year
3 4 5 6
3,426,449.96 3,658,617.84 4,247,027.90 4,525,760.47
20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00
172.00 183.00 213.00 227.00
7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88
33.95 34.97 36.02 37.10
PHP 10,948.49 PHP 11,998.14 PHP 14,384.00 PHP 15,789.31
7 8 9 10
4,825,187.75 5,138,507.48 5,474,964.78 5,835,926.34
20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00
242.00 257.00 274.00 292.00
7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88
38.21 39.36 40.54 41.75
PHP 17,337.64 PHP 18,964.66 PHP 20,825.70 PHP 22,859.63
Selling & admin less salaries & wages 38,190.00 39,385.70 40,567.27
Selling & Admin 117,940.00 121,528.20 125,174.05
(less: R&M/Dep/Tax)
Year 1
Land 500,000.00
Hauler trucks
(forward) 10 gross tonnage 1.00 4,000,000.00 4,000,000.00
Weighing scale
(digital) 1ookg cap 4.00 7,500.00 30,000.00
Total 4,530,000.00
Year 5
Hauler trucks
(forward) 10 gross tonnage 1.00 4,200,000.00 4,200,000.00
PHP 4,030,000.00
PHP 8,230,000.00
Depreciation R&M Yearly Dep
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3
- -
420,000.00 12,600.00
823,000.00 24,690.00
Total 403,000.00 403,000.00 403,000.00
820,000.00 24,600.00
Accumulated Depn) 403,000.00 806,000.00 1,209,000.00
Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9
400,000.00
3,000.00
420,000.00
823,000.00
6,550,000.00
Consolidated Projected Cash Flow
Tinagacan Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries Cooperative PHP 400.00
Cash Inflows
Income from Sales 17,400,598.85 18,962,720.10 33,443,110.98 36,780,408.53 43,976,619.28 48,268,690.42 53,006,043.96
Hauler Truck Income 945,684.72 1,000,565.64 1,713,224.98 1,829,308.92 2,123,513.95 2,262,880.24 2,412,593.88
Total Cash Inflows 4,500,000.00 18,346,283.57 19,963,285.74 35,156,335.96 38,609,717.45 46,100,133.23 50,531,570.66 55,418,637.84
Cash Outflows
Investing Activities
New Fixed Assets Purchases 4,030,000.00 PHP 4,200,000.00
Cost of Sales 14,436,830.80 15,732,616.21 27,735,548.63 30,502,615.07 36,167,695.74 39,698,301.45 43,595,408.34
Admin and Selling Expenses
Salaries and Wages 104,440.00 107,573.20 110,800.40 114,124.41 117,548.14 121,074.58 124,706.82
Fixed Business Expenses 38,190.00 39,385.70 40,567.27 41,784.29 43,037.82 44,328.95 45,658.82
Total Cash Outflows 14,579,460.80 15,879,575.11 27,886,916.30 30,658,523.77 40,528,281.70 39,863,704.99 43,765,773.98
Financing Activities
Dividends Paid 2,354,675.94 2,576,497.44 4,806,493.77 5,283,735.57 6,264,196.07 6,891,405.97 7,580,904.70
Total Cash Outflows 4,030,000.00 16,934,136.74 18,456,072.55 32,693,410.06 35,942,259.34 46,792,477.77 46,755,110.96 51,346,678.68
Ending Cash Balance 470,000.00 1,882,146.83 3,389,360.02 5,852,285.92 8,519,744.02 7,827,399.48 11,603,859.18 15,675,818.34
Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
15,675,818.34 20,066,840.44 24,808,549.98
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Income
Sales - Whole Nuts 17,400,598.85 18,962,720.10 33,443,110.98 36,780,408.53 43,976,619.28 48,268,690.42 53,006,043.96 58,141,387.76 63,806,798.53 70,053,953.75
Hauler Truck Income 945,684.72 1,000,565.64 1,713,224.98 1,829,308.92 2,123,513.95 2,262,880.24 2,412,593.88 2,569,253.74 2,737,482.39 2,917,963.17
Total Income 18,346,283.57 19,963,285.74 35,156,335.96 38,609,717.45 46,100,133.23 50,531,570.66 55,418,637.84 60,710,641.50 66,544,280.92 72,971,916.92
Cost of Sales
Whole Nuts 14,436,830.80 15,732,616.21 27,735,548.63 30,502,615.07 36,167,695.74 39,698,301.45 43,595,408.34 47,818,757.89 52,478,174.87 57,615,975.33
Total Cost of Sales 14,436,830.80 15,732,616.21 27,735,548.63 30,502,615.07 36,167,695.74 39,698,301.45 43,595,408.34 47,818,757.89 52,478,174.87 57,615,975.33
Gross Profit 3,909,452.77 4,230,669.53 7,420,787.33 8,107,102.38 9,932,437.49 10,833,269.20 11,823,229.50 12,891,883.61 14,066,106.04 15,355,941.59
General & Admin Expenses 142,630.00 146,958.90 151,367.67 155,908.70 160,585.96 165,403.54 170,365.64 175,476.61 180,740.91 186,163.14
Total Gen. & Admin. Expense 142,630.00 146,958.90 151,367.67 155,908.70 160,585.96 165,403.54 170,365.64 175,476.61 180,740.91 186,163.14
Depreciation Expenses 403,000.00 403,000.00 403,000.00 403,000.00 823,000.00 823,000.00 823,000.00 823,000.00 823,000.00 823,000.00
Total Expenses 14,982,460.80 16,282,575.11 28,289,916.30 31,061,523.77 37,151,281.70 40,686,704.99 44,588,773.98 48,817,234.50 53,481,915.78 58,625,138.47
Net Surplus 3,363,822.77 3,680,710.63 6,866,419.67 7,548,193.68 8,948,851.53 9,844,865.67 10,829,863.86 11,893,407.00 13,062,365.13 14,346,778.45 90,385,278.38 9,038,527.84
ROI (%) 22.45 22.61 24.27 24.30 24.09 24.20 24.29 24.36 24.42 24.47 23.95
BCR 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24
NPV 43,462,830.27
IRR 93%
(5,000,000.00) 3,363,822.77 3,680,710.63 6,866,419.67 7,548,193.68 8,948,851.53 9,844,865.67 10,829,863.86 11,893,407.00 13,062,365.13 14,346,778.45 87,021,455.61
6,000,000.00
Consolidated Projected Balance Sheet
Tinagacan Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries
Pre-operation Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Assets
Current Assets
Cash 470,000.00 1,882,146.83 3,389,360.02 5,852,285.92 8,519,744.02 7,827,399.48 11,603,859.18 15,675,818.34 20,066,840.44 24,808,549.98 29,935,583.51
Other Current
Fixed
Total Assets
Current(delete
Assetsif not 470,000.00 1,882,146.83 3,389,360.02 5,852,285.92 8,519,744.02 7,827,399.48 11,603,859.18 15,675,818.34 20,066,840.44 24,808,549.98 29,935,583.51
applicable, use non-current assets
instead)
Real Estate-Land 500,000.00 500,000.00 500,000.00 500,000.00 500,000.00 500,000.00 500,000.00 500,000.00 500,000.00 500,000.00 500,000.00
Property and Equipment 4,030,000.00 4,030,000.00 4,030,000.00 4,030,000.00 4,030,000.00 8,230,000.00 8,230,000.00 8,230,000.00 8,230,000.00 8,230,000.00 8,230,000.00
Other Fixed Assets - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Fixed Assets 4,530,000.00 4,530,000.00 4,530,000.00 4,530,000.00 4,530,000.00 8,730,000.00 8,730,000.00 8,730,000.00 8,730,000.00 8,730,000.00 8,730,000.00
Less: Accumulated Depreciation (403,000.00) (806,000.00) (1,209,000.00) (1,612,000.00) (2,435,000.00) (3,258,000.00) (4,081,000.00) (4,904,000.00) (5,727,000.00) (6,550,000.00)
Total Assets 5,000,000.00 6,009,146.83 7,113,360.02 9,173,285.92 11,437,744.02 14,122,399.48 17,075,859.18 20,324,818.34 23,892,840.44 27,811,549.98 32,115,583.51
Liabilities(delete
Liabilities and Owner's Equity
if not applicable)
Total Liabilities
Owner's Equity
Beg. Balance 5,000,000.00 6,009,146.83 7,113,360.02 9,173,285.92 11,437,744.02 14,122,399.48 17,075,859.18 20,324,818.34 23,892,840.44 27,811,549.98
less: Dividends 2,354,675.94 2,576,497.44 4,806,493.77 5,283,735.57 6,264,196.07 6,891,405.97 7,580,904.70 8,325,384.90 9,143,655.59 10,042,744.92
Add:
Net Income 3,363,822.77 3,680,710.63 6,866,419.67 7,548,193.68 8,948,851.53 9,844,865.67 10,829,863.86 11,893,407.00 13,062,365.13 14,346,778.45
Initial Investment
Loan Proceeds 2,400,000.00
GOP 800,000.00
LGU 800,000.00
Proponent Group 1,000,000.00
End. Balance
Total Owner's Equity 5,000,000.00 6,009,146.83 7,113,360.02 9,173,285.92 11,437,744.02 14,122,399.48 17,075,859.18 20,324,818.34 23,892,840.44 27,811,549.98 32,115,583.51
- - - - - - - - - - -
Sensitivity Analysis
TARBC
BASE CASE
Investment Cost and
Revenue Net Cash Flow
Operating Cost
Year 0 PHP 5,000,000.00 PHP (5,000,000.00)
Year 1 PHP 18,346,283.57 PHP 14,579,460.80 PHP 3,766,822.77
Year 2 PHP 19,963,285.74 PHP 15,879,575.11 PHP 4,083,710.63
Year 3 PHP 35,156,335.96 PHP 27,886,916.30 PHP 7,269,419.67
Year 4 PHP 38,609,717.45 PHP 30,658,523.77 PHP 7,951,193.68
Year 5 PHP 46,100,133.23 PHP 40,528,281.70 PHP 5,571,851.53
Year 6 PHP 50,531,570.66 PHP 39,863,704.99 PHP 10,667,865.67
Year 7 PHP 55,418,637.84 PHP 43,765,773.98 PHP 11,652,863.86
Year 8 PHP 60,710,641.50 PHP 47,994,234.50 PHP 12,716,407.00
Year 9 PHP 66,544,280.92 PHP 52,658,915.78 PHP 13,885,365.13
Year 10 PHP 72,971,916.92 PHP 57,802,138.47 PHP 15,169,778.45
FNPV
FIRR
BCR
ROI
Sensitivity Analysis
Revenue decrease by 5%
Sensitivity Analysis
Revenue Reduction by 10%
FNPV
FIRR
BCR
ROI
Sensitivity Analysis
Revenue decrease by 15%
FNPV
FIRR
BCR
ROI
Sensitivity Analysis
Cost increase by 5%
Year 0
Year 1 PHP 18,346,283.57
Year 2 PHP 19,963,285.74
Year 3 PHP 35,156,335.96
Year 4 PHP 38,609,717.45
Year 5 PHP 46,100,133.23
Year 6 PHP 50,531,570.66
Year 7 PHP 55,418,637.84
Year 8 PHP 60,710,641.50
Year 9 PHP 66,544,280.92
Year 10 PHP 72,971,916.92
PHP 24,374,067.85
77%
1.15
139.04%
Sensitivity Analysis
Cost Increase by 10%
Revenue
Year 0
Year 1 PHP 18,346,283.57
Year 2 PHP 19,963,285.74
Year 3 PHP 35,156,335.96
Year 4 PHP 38,609,717.45
Year 5 PHP 46,100,133.23
Year 6 PHP 50,531,570.66
Year 7 PHP 55,418,637.84
Year 8 PHP 60,710,641.50
Year 9 PHP 66,544,280.92
Year 10 PHP 72,971,916.92
PHP 14,442,092.06
56%
1.09
92.60%
Sensitivity Analysis
Costs Increase by 15%
Revenue
Year 0
Year 1 PHP 18,346,283.57
Year 2 PHP 19,963,285.74
Year 3 PHP 35,156,335.96
Year 4 PHP 38,609,717.45
Year 5 PHP 46,100,133.23
Year 6 PHP 50,531,570.66
Year 7 PHP 55,418,637.84
Year 8 PHP 60,710,641.50
Year 9 PHP 66,544,280.92
Year 10 PHP 72,971,916.92
PHP 4,510,116.27
30%
1.03
46.16%
Sensitivity Analysis
Cost Increase by 10%
Sensitivity Analysis
Costs Increase by 15%
Revenue -5% and Cost Revenue -10% and Cost Revenue -15% and
+5% +10% Cost +15%
PHP 16,407,394.24 PHP (1,491,255.16) PHP (19,389,904.57)
60% 9% Err:523
1.10 0.99 0.90
101.87% 18.28% -65.32%
Sensitivity Analysis
Revenue Reduction by 5% and Cost Increase by 5%
Sensitivity Analysis
Revenue Decrease by 10% and Costs Increase by 10%
FNPV
FIRR
BCR
ROI
Sensitivity Analysis
Revenue Decrease by 15% and Costs Increase by 15%
FNPV
FIRR
BCR
ROI
5%
PHP 16,407,394.24
60%
1.10
101.87%
10%
PHP (1,491,255.16)
9%
0.99
18.28%
15%
(19,389,904.57)
Err:523
0.90
-65.32%
Schedule______: SCHEDULE OF ACQUISITION OF PROPERTY, PLANT & EQUIPMENT
Yr.
Property/Equipment Unit Price # of Units Total Price
Acquired
Land 500,000.00
Hauler trucks (forward) beg. of Yr 1 3,500,000.00 1.00 4,000,000.00
Weighing scale (digital) beg. of Yr 1 7,500.00 4.00 30,000.00
Total 4,530,000.00
Year 3
Hauler trucks (forward) end. of Yr 2 4,200,000.00 1.00 4,200,000.00
Grand Total 8,730,000.00
-
Year 3
Hauler trucks (forward) end. of Yr 2 4,200,000.00 10.00 420,000.00
Total Annual Depreciation
Accumulated Depreciation
YR 1 YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR 5
PHP 400,000.00 PHP 400,000.00 PHP 400,000.00 PHP 400,000.00 PHP 400,000.00
3,000.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 3,000.00
420,000.00
PHP 403,000.00 PHP 403,000.00 PHP 403,000.00 PHP 403,000.00 PHP 823,000.00
PHP 403,000.00 PHP 806,000.00 PHP 1,209,000.00 PHP 1,612,000.00 PHP 2,435,000.00
- - - - -
- - - - -
YR 6 YR 7 YR 8 YR 9 YR 10
PHP 400,000.00 PHP 400,000.00 PHP 400,000.00 PHP 400,000.00 PHP 400,000.00
3,000.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 3,000.00
- - - - -
- - - - -
Payback Period
Tinagacan Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries Cooeprative
Payback period = number of years when cummulative total net income is equal to total capital investment
Y1 Year Number before you break-even / number of years before you reach break-even year
X1 Cummulative total at year before you breakeven
X2 net income at break-even year
Whole Nuts
Particulars Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
Fixed Cost
Repair and maintenance 24,690.00 25,430.70 26,193.62 26,979.43 27,788.81 28,622.48
depreciation 403,000.00 403,000.00 403,000.00 403,000.00 823,000.00 823,000.00
selling and admin expenses 117,940.00 121,528.20 125,174.05 128,929.27 132,797.15 136,781.06
Total Fixed Cost 545,630.00 549,958.90 554,367.67 558,908.70 983,585.96 988,403.54
Variable Cost
Raw Materials 14,185,270.80 15,458,739.21 27,263,405.69 29,984,028.69 35,850,504.85 39,349,475.88
Transportation (fuel cost) 251,560.00 273,877.00 472,142.94 518,586.38 317,190.89 348,825.57
Total Variable Cost 14,436,830.80 15,732,616.21 27,735,548.63 30,502,615.07 36,167,695.74 39,698,301.45
Divided by: Volume
Variable Cost per unit
Selling Price
Contribution Margin Per Unit
Contribution Margin Ratio
BEP (kg)
BEP Sales (Php)
MASICAP MSME Development Foundation, Inc.Medium and Small scale Industries Coordinated Action Program II (MASICAP II)Butuan City Team 2014-2015
Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
MASICAP MSME Development Foundation, Inc.Medium and Small scale Industries Coordinated Action Program II (MASICAP II)Butuan City Team 2014-2015
Break-even Analysis
Tinagacan Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries Cooperative
9.87
57,615,975.33
5,835,926.34
2.13
18%
473,501.52