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Ekspor (X1) Impor (X2) PDRB HB (Y)

Milyar Rp Milyar Rp Milyar Rp

23.550,77 8.833,69 78.501,35

21.261,79 7.587,67 88.117,50


Dependent Variable: PDRB
19.686,26
Method: 5.826,76
Least Squares 101.323,70
Date: 04/10/20 Time: 16:45
Sample: 1 17
38.290,00 8.610,67 118.100,70
Included observations: 17
78.848,01 20.352,28 139.618,30
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  
50.495,35 13.318,62 160.376,80
C 55764.82 48202.06 1.156897 0.2667
EKSPOR -2.339182 1.547133 -1.511947 0.1528
64.754,82 19.289,40 180.375,40
IMPOR 13.32866 2.628524 5.070776 0.0002

90.505,18
R-squared 36.116,76 0.903635    Mean
195.155,20 dependent var 310002.2
Adjusted R-squared 0.889868    S.D. dependent var 202750.5
66.900,84
S.E. of regression28.168,77 67285.02    Akaike
326.353,60 info criterion 25.23005
Sum squared resid 6.34E+10    Schwarz criterion 25.37709
83.065,99
Log likelihood 32.500,14 -211.4554    Hannan-Quinn
275.056,50 criter. 25.24466
F-statistic 65.64024    Durbin-Watson stat 1.397387
104.226,21
Prob(F-statistic) 39.040,96 0.000000
314.372,40

97.391,53 48.367,69 417.120,20

101.401,60 53.975,23 469.460,20

111.800,52 59.782,22 521.920,90


Variance Inflation Factors
Date: 04/10/20 Time:
103.651,08 16:49
53.363,59 571.720,30
Sample: 1 17
Included observations:
103.572,81 17
52.119,65 628.390,80

123.531,10 62.167,49Coefficient Uncentered


684.072,70 Centered
Variable Variance VIF VIF

C  2.32E+09  8.724556  NA


EKSPOR  2.393621  60.93286  9.743673
IMPOR  6.909136  36.84244  9.743673

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic 0.483240    Prob. F(2,12) 0.6283


Obs*R-squared 1.267125    Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.5307

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/10/20 Time: 16:57
Sample: 1 17
Included observations: 17
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  

C 13349.27 54882.05 0.243236 0.8119


EKSPOR -0.476226 1.834132 -0.259647 0.7995
IMPOR 0.709453 3.121667 0.227267 0.8240
RESID(-1) 0.299785 0.323130 0.927752 0.3718
RESID(-2) -0.099673 0.381534 -0.261244 0.7983

R-squared 0.074537    Mean dependent var 8.39E-11


Adjusted R-squared -0.233951    S.D. dependent var 62939.37
S.E. of regression 69915.16    Akaike info criterion 25.38788
Sum squared resid 5.87E+10    Schwarz criterion 25.63294
Log likelihood -210.7970    Hannan-Quinn criter. 25.41224
F-statistic 0.241620    Durbin-Watson stat 1.949720
Prob(F-statistic) 0.909264

DATA 15 2002-2017

Dependent Variable: PDRB


Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/10/20 Time: 16:53
Sample: 1 15
Included observations: 15

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  

C 99023.79 71892.98 1.377378 0.1935


EKKSPOR -3.251618 1.946740 -1.670289 0.1207
IMPOR 14.34138 3.001632 4.777861 0.0005

R-squared 0.889875    Mean dependent var 340227.8


Adjusted R-squared 0.871521    S.D. dependent var 196613.3
S.E. of regression 70474.03    Akaike info criterion 25.34073
Sum squared resid 5.96E+10    Schwarz criterion 25.48234
Log likelihood -187.0555    Hannan-Quinn criter. 25.33922
F-statistic 48.48359    Durbin-Watson stat 1.308300
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic 0.556954    Prob. F(2,10) 0.5897


Obs*R-squared 1.503397    Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.4716

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/10/20 Time: 16:53
Sample: 1 15
Included observations: 15
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  

C 22968.17 78772.05 0.291578 0.7766


EKKSPOR -0.658630 2.168401 -0.303740 0.7676
IMPOR 0.910780 3.364544 0.270699 0.7921
RESID(-1) 0.360397 0.347356 1.037545 0.3239
RESID(-2) -0.092549 0.417356 -0.221751 0.8290

R-squared 0.100226    Mean dependent var 9.12E-11


Adjusted R-squared -0.259683    S.D. dependent var 65246.27
S.E. of regression 73229.54    Akaike info criterion 25.50179
Sum squared resid 5.36E+10    Schwarz criterion 25.73780
Log likelihood -186.2634    Hannan-Quinn criter. 25.49927
F-statistic 0.278477    Durbin-Watson stat 1.995323
Prob(F-statistic) 0.885289

4
Series: Residuals
Sample 1 15
Observations 15
3

Mean 9.12e-11
Median 5098.348
2 Maximum 118678.6
Minimum -127544.5
Std. Dev. 65246.27
Skewness -0.082755
1 Kurtosis 2.621484

Jarque-Bera 0.106668
0 Probability 0.948064
-150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000
Variance Inflation Factors
Date: 04/10/20 Time: 16:53
Sample: 1 15
Included observations: 15

Coefficient Uncentered Centered


Variable Variance VIF VIF

C  5.17E+09  15.61011  NA


EKKSPOR  3.789795  87.17264  9.190947
IMPOR  9.009792  43.54833  9.190947

DATA 12 TAHUN 2005-2017

Dependent Variable: PDRB


Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/10/20 Time: 17:00
Sample: 1 12
Included observations: 12

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  

C 120275.9 157286.3 0.764694 0.4640


EKSPOR -3.881193 3.697522 -1.049674 0.3212
IMPOR 15.20524 4.990752 3.046683 0.0139

R-squared 0.836145    Mean dependent var 395364.6


Adjusted R-squared 0.799733    S.D. dependent var 180417.3
S.E. of regression 80739.02    Akaike info criterion 25.64815
Sum squared resid 5.87E+10    Schwarz criterion 25.76938
Log likelihood -150.8889    Hannan-Quinn criter. 25.60327
F-statistic 22.96328    Durbin-Watson stat 1.251482
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000292
6
Series: Residuals
Sample 1 12
5
Observations 12

4 Mean -9.94e-11
Median 11558.43
3 Maximum 117609.2
Minimum -123016.6
Std. Dev. 73031.19
2
Skewness -0.053562
Kurtosis 2.086963
1
Jarque-Bera 0.422556
0 Probability 0.809549
-100000 1 100001

Variance Inflation Factors


Date: 04/10/20 Time: 17:00
Sample: 1 12
Included observations: 12

Coefficient Uncentered Centered


Variable Variance VIF VIF

C  2.47E+10  45.54031  NA


EKSPOR  13.67167  222.6684  10.69448
IMPOR  24.90761  89.72769  10.69448

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic 0.541195    Prob. F(2,7) 0.6046


Obs*R-squared 1.607034    Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.4478

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/10/20 Time: 17:01
Sample: 1 12
Included observations: 12
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  


C 82585.42 196139.6 0.421054 0.6863
EKSPOR -1.983284 4.687128 -0.423134 0.6849
IMPOR 2.438005 6.283479 0.388002 0.7095
RESID(-1) 0.449089 0.447169 1.004295 0.3487
RESID(-2) -0.104455 0.510287 -0.204699 0.8436

R-squared 0.133920    Mean dependent var -9.94E-11


Adjusted R-squared -0.360984    S.D. dependent var 73031.19
S.E. of regression 85199.06    Akaike info criterion 25.83771
Sum squared resid 5.08E+10    Schwarz criterion 26.03975
Log likelihood -150.0262    Hannan-Quinn criter. 25.76290
F-statistic 0.270597    Durbin-Watson stat 2.024834
Prob(F-statistic) 0.887958